Numerical simulation of seasonal snow in Tianshan Mountains

Snowfall in the Tianshan Mountains in China is frequent during winter;thus,avalanches have become a severe issue in snow-covered areas.Accumulation and metamorphosis,as well as hydrothermal exchanges with the environment,considerably affect the stability of snow on slopes.Therefore,a hydrothermal model of snow cover and its underlying surfaces must be developed on the basis of meteorological data to predict and help manage avalanches.This study adopted the conceptual model of snow as a porous medium and quantitatively analysed its internal physical processes on the basis of the thermal exchanges amongst its components.The effects of local meteorological factors on snow structure and the redistribution of energy and mass inside the snow cover in the Tianshan Mountains were simulated.Simulation results showed that deformation as a result of overlying snow and sublimation of snow cover at the bottom is the main cause of density variation in the vertical profile of snow cover.Temperature drives water movement in snow.The low-density area of the bottom snow is the result of temperature gradient.The simulation results of the long-term snow internal mass distribution obtained by the method established in this study are highly consistent with the actual observed trend of variation.Such consistency indicates an accurate simulation of the physical characteristics of snow cover in small and microscale metamorphism in the Tianshan Mountains during the stable period.     

THE CHARACTERISTICS AND VERTICAL ZONE SPECTRUM OF NATURAL DISASTERS IN THE TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS, XINJIANG

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Response of snow hydrological processes to a changing climate during 1961 to 2016 in the headwater of Irtysh River Basin,Chinese Altai Mountains

With changing climatic conditions and snow cover regime, regional hydrological cycle for a snowy basin will change and further available surface water resources will be redistributed. Assessing snow meltwater effect on runoff is the key to water safety, under climate warming and fast social-economic developing status. In this study, stable isotopic technology was utilized to analyze the snow meltwater effect on regional hydrological processes, and to declare the response of snow hydrology to climate change and snow cover regime, together with longterm meteorological and hydrological observations, in the headwater of Irtysh River, Chinese Altai Mountains during 1961-2015. The average δ~(18) O values of rainfall, snowfall, meltwater, groundwater and river water for 2014–2015 hydrological year were-10.9‰,-22.3‰,-21.7‰,-15.7‰ and-16.0‰, respectively.The results from stable isotopes, snow melting observation and remote sensing indicated that the meltwater effect on hydrological processes in Kayiertesi River Basin mainly occurred during snowmelt supplying period from April to June. The contribution of meltwater to runoff reached 58.1% during this period, but rainfall, meltwater and groundwater supplied 49.1%, 36.9% and 14.0% of water resource to annual runoff, respectively. With rising air temperature and increasing snowfall in cold season, the snow water equivalent(SWE) had an increasing trend but the snow cover duration declined by about one month including 13-day delay of the first day and 17-day advancement of the end day during 1961–2016. Increase in SWE provided more available water resource. However, variations in snow cover timing had resulted in redistribution of surface water resource, represented by an increase of discharge percentage in April and May, and a decline in Juneand July. This trend of snow hydrology will render a deficit of water resource in June and July when the water resource demand is high for agricultural irrigation and industrial manufacture.     

多源信息结合的雪灾交通风险评估研究

本研究将气象观测信息与网络信息相结合,提出了一种多源信息结合的雪灾交通风险评估方法：利用长时间气象观测数据分析雪灾的致灾强度时空特征,计算不同年遇型雪灾致灾强度;对门户网站、高速公路网站中节假日道路拥堵的新闻报道进行信息挖掘,获取高速公路暴露度;采用风险矩阵进行雪灾交通风险评估。将该方法应用于河北省,研究结果如下： ① 近5年来全省降雪有所下降,但长时间尺度来看,各地降雪呈波动变化;积雪深度高值区分布在张家口、承德、石家庄地区,但各年代间会有所变化;降雪次数高值区基本固定,在张家口康保、沽源、崇礼以及承德丰宁西北方向。② 暴露度级别高的路段是连接北京与上海、广州、哈尔滨等城市的高速公路,以及重要省市级联络线。③ 受致灾强度与暴露度的综合影响,河北省雪灾高风险路段集中在京港澳高速（石安G4）、京昆高速G5、京承高速G45、长深高速G25、张承高速G95等。这些路段必须做好雪灾风险防范措施。     

Characteristics and dynamics of the Ganqiuchi rock avalanche triggered by a paleo-earthquake in the Northern Qinling Mountains

Analyzing large prehistoric rock avalanches provides significant data for evaluating the disaster posed by these relatively infrequent but destructive geological events. This paper attempts to study the characteristics and dynamics of the Ganqiuchi granitic rock avalanche, in the middle of the northern margin of Qinling Mountains, 30 km to the south of Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, China. In plane view, this rock avalanche is characterized by source area, accumulation area and dammed lake area. Based on previous studies, historical records and regional geological data, the major trigger of the Ganqiuchi rock avalanche is considered to be a strong paleo-earthquake with tremendous energy. The in situ deposit block size distributions of the intact rock mass and the debris deposits are presented and analyzed by using a simple model for estimating the number of fragmentation cycles that the blocks underwent. The results show that the primary controlling factor of the fragmentation process is the pre-existing fractures, and there is a relationship between the potential energy and the fragmentation energy: the latter is approximately 20% of the former. Based on the dynamic discrete element technique, the study proposes a four-stage model for the dynamic course of the Ganqiuchi rock avalanche:(1) failing;(2) highspeed sliding;(3) collision with obstacles;(4) decelerated sliding, which has implication for hazard assessment of the potential rock avalanches in China and other countries with similar geological setting.     

新疆NDVI时空特征及气候变化影响研究

基于新疆50个气象测站2003-2010年逐日降水、气温资料,结合逐月归一化植被覆盖影像资料,利用趋势分析、R/S分析、模糊C均值聚类、图像处理等方法,系统分析了全疆NDVI时空变化特征及其可持续性,并探究NDVI与气候因子（气温、降水）之间的相关性。研究表明：植被覆盖及气象因子年际间差异不大,呈现出整体稳定的态势,但年内变化明显。北疆/天山北坡水热条件优良、植被长势最好,且植被长势对气候因子的滞后效应并不明显且滞后时间短。天山南坡/天山东段次之,而南疆植被覆盖程度最差,南疆/天山南坡植被长势对气候因子（降水、气温）存在明显的滞后效应,植被生长受气温、降水限制性更大,且气温作为主要因子,对天山南坡植被生长的限制作用表现得更为突出。总体上,新疆植被覆盖呈持续性变化,现有植被覆盖情况基本保持不变,但呈退化趋势的面积大于得到改善的面积,在一定程度上与人类活动有很大关系,探查植被长势的变化趋势并及时做出相应调整,不仅能为新疆地区的植被保护以及植被恢复工作提供一定的科学依据,更能够为合理有效地安排农作物生产提供重要的理论指导。     

昆仑山提孜那甫河流域雨雪分离的温度条件分析

气候变暖背景下高海拔山区融雪（冰）以及强降水引发的洪水愈加难以预测,通过山区雨雪分离可判定引发洪水的温度条件,从而为山洪准确预报提供简单而科学的参考依据。本研究以昆仑山提孜那甫河流域为例,基于流域内不同海拔气象站2012-2016年的降水以及温度数据,结合MOD10A2积雪数据,采用温度积分法和概率统计方法,利用研究期内的平均温度,确定出不同降水形态对应的温度条件,以达到雨雪分离的目的。研究结果表明,莫木克站最大温和积温分别达到20.91 ℃和51.82 ℃时,降水可判定为降雨,最大温和积温分别低于18.13 ℃,43.69 ℃时,降水可判定为降雪;库地站最大温和积温分别达到14.51 ℃,33.17 ℃时,降水可判定为降雨,最大温和积温分别低于13.57 ℃,31.68 ℃时,降水可判定为降雪;西合休站最大温和积温分别达到9.43 ℃,19.53 ℃时,降水可判定为降雨,最大温和积温分别低于8.22 ℃,19.4 ℃时,降水可判定为降雪。利用流域内气象站点附近乡镇的气象统计数据对温度条件及分离结果进行验证,在海拔2000 m以下、2000~3000 m以及3000 m以上不同海拔地区的准确率分别为92.86%、79.49%以及88.3%。本研究可为判别洪水类型和洪水预报提供科学参考。     

Assessing spatio-temporal characteristics of water storage changes in the mountainous areas of Central Asia based on GRACE

The mountainous areas of Central Asia provide substantial water resources, and studying change in water storage and the impacts of precipitation and snow cover in the mountain ranges of Central Asia is of the greatest importance for understanding regional water shortages and the main factors. Data from the GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites, precipitation products and snow-covered area data were used to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of water storage changes and the effects of precipitation and snow cover from April 2002 to December 2013. The results were computed for each mountain ranges, and the following conclusions were drawn. The water storage in the mountainous areas of Central Asia as a whole increases in summer and winter, whereas it decreases in autumn. The water storage is affected by precipitation to some extent and some areas exhibit hysteresis. The area of positive water storage changes moves from west to east over the course of the year. The water storage declined during the period 2002–2004. It then returned to a higher level in 2005–2006 and featured lower levels in 2007–2009 Subsequently, the water storage increased gradually from 2010 to 2013. The Eastern Tianshan Mountains and Western Tianshan Mountain subzones examined in this study display similar tendencies, and the trends observed in the Karakorum Mountains and the Kunlun Mountains are also similar. However, the Eastern Tianshan Mountains and Western Tianshan Mountains were influenced by precipitation to a greater degree than the latter two ranges. The water storage in Qilian Mountains showed a pronounced increasing trend, and this range is the most strongly affected by precipitation. Based on an analysis of all investigated subzones, precipitation has the greatest influence on total water storage relative to the snow covered area in some areas of Central Asia. The results obtained from this study will be of value for scientists studying the mechanisms that influence changes in water storage in Central Asia.     

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山东半岛降雪时空分布特征

以2000-2018年MODIS MOD10A1日产品数据为数据源,结合数字高程模型（DEM）及降水量、风向等气象数据,构建了积雪空间分布模型,能够有效地提取强降雪区域。以此为基础,利用相关分析、缓冲区分析等方法,探究山东半岛降雪时空分布特征,结果表明：① 将NDSI累积量与DEM数据相结合,能够有效构建山东半岛积雪空间分布模型,实现了对山东半岛强、弱降雪区域提取,NDSI累积量≥150的区域中,在强降雪区的面积占降雪范围的79.78%;② 降雪区域存在空间差异,呈现北多南少,东多西少的分布格局,以黄、渤海与山东半岛海陆分界线为基准,离岸距离39.1 km范围内降雪多,离岸距离39.1 km以外降雪少;山脉150 m高程线北侧迎风坡降雪多,南侧背风坡降雪少;③ 山东半岛强降雪年以3-5年为周期存在年际变化。探究山东半岛降雪长时间序列时空分布特征,在收集淡水资源,缓解用水紧张和灾害预防方面具有一定意义。     

Cryotic climate conditions and their eventual implication in the high-mountain surface of the Nevado de Toluca volcano,Mexico

The state of the cryosphere in tropical regions is of great importance because the temperature around the glaciers, permafrost and snow cover always fluctuates near the melting point. These thermal conditions and their high sensitivity to climate change cause the accelerated disappearance of these elements; therefore, it is important to know the climatic factors that regulate them, as well as the physical characteristics of each cryospheric element. Unlike glaciers, permafrost and snow cover have not been widely studied. In recent decades, the study of the glacial and periglacial environment has been carried out in intertropical mountains. However, despite the altitude of their relief and the frequent occurrence of snowfall in tropical high mountains, the conditions that determine such events have been barely analyzed; and in the case of Mexico, the volume of snowfall and its thickness have not been quantified either, as well as their corresponding duration. Consequently, this work is aimed to analyze the temperature and precipitation conditions that determine the snowfall at the higher part of the Nevado de Toluca volcano; at the same time, the conditions of the cryotic climate and their possible implication on the surface are studied. The analysis of data from 1965 to 2016, using frequency statistics, allowed to realize that snowfall occurs with low intensity, its accumulation being less than 10 cm thick and 10 mm of snow water equivalent, which causes the snowpack to stay only a few weeks on average. At the same time, it was determined that there is a significant increase in the number of freeze-thaw cycles. Therefore, due to the climate conditions and their influence on the mountain surface, it is probable that the bedrock is subject to a greater gelifraction dynamics, and the unconsolidated soil surface increases; the combination of the above could cause a greater geomorphological dynamic over time, particularly due to debris flows, and by water and wind erosion of the surface. This work is intended to serve as a reference for the high mountain environment in the intertropical regions.     

Change in fresh snow density in Tianshan Mountains,China

The fresh snow density was observed with snow analyzer (Snow Fork) at Tianshan Station for Snowcover and Avalanche Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences from February 21 to March 5, 2009. Results show that fresh snow density increases from the 5th h to the 291st h after the snowfall, with an average rate of increase of 4.0×10-4 g/(cm3·h) (R2 = 0.943). Analysis shows that fresh snow density is negatively correlated with the compac-tion rate of fresh snow (R2 = -0.960). Inversely, it is positively correlated ...     

关中平原清代霜雪灾害特点与周期研究

通过对关中平原清代历史文献资料的搜集、整理和小波分析,对该区清代霜雪灾害等级、周期及其成因进行了研究,并恢复了该区清代霜雪灾害发生时的最低气温.结果表明:关中平原清代共发生霜雪灾害34次,其中轻度、中度、重度霜雪灾害分别为2、20、12次;关中平原清代霜雪灾害可分为3个阶段,1644~1733年为第1阶段,1734~1823年为第2阶段,1824~1912年为第3阶段;第1和第3阶段为霜雪灾害多发阶段,以中度和重度灾害为主,第2阶段为霜雪灾害少发阶段,以轻度和中度灾害为主;小波分析表明,关中平原清代霜雪灾害的发生存在不同的时间周期规律,其周期主要有9~15年、13年、34年左右和40年左右;降雪或寒流引起的气温骤降至0℃以下是造成关中平原清代霜雪灾害的主要原因;关中平原清代轻度和中度霜雪灾害的气温范围为-6.4℃~-1℃,重度的气温范围一般为-19℃~-17℃;关中平原清代共发生3次寒冷气候事件,分别为1690~1692年、1861~1865年和1893~1895年.     

Runoff responses to climate change in arid region of northwestern China during 1960–2010

Based on runoff, air temperature, and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, the effects of climate change on water resources in the arid region of the northwestern China were investigated. The long-term trends of hydroclimatic variables were studied by using both Mann-Kendall test and distributed-free cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart test. Results indicate that the mean annual air temperature increases significantly from 1960 to 2010. The annual precipitation exhibits an increasing trend, especially in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the North Uygur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang in the study period. Step changes occur in 1988 in the mean annual air temperature time series and in 1991 in the precipitation time series. The runoff in different basins shows different trends, i.e., significantly increasing in the Kaidu River, the Aksu River and the Shule River, and decreasing in the Shiyang River. Correlation analysis reveals that the runoff in the North Xinjiang (i.e., the Weigan River, the Heihe River, and the Shiyang River) has a strong positive relationship with rainfall, while that in the south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, the middle section of the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains and the Shule River has a strong positive relationship with air temperature. The trends of runoff have strong negative correlations with glacier coverage and the proportion of glacier water in runoff. From the late 1980s, the climate has become warm and wet in the arid region of the northwestern China. The change in runoff is interacted with air temperature, precipitation and glacier coverage. The results show that streamflow in the arid region of the northwestern China is sensitive to climate change, which can be used as a reference for regional water resource assessment and management.     

An Assessment and Identification of Avalanche Hazard Sites in Uri Sector and its Surroundings on Himalayan Mountain

Avalanches are one of the most natural hazard in the mountain areas and therefore, identification of avalanche hazard is necessary for planning future development activities. The study area falls under the international boundary region which generally covered by the snow(38%) on high altitude regions of the western part of Himalayas. Avalanches are triggered in study area during snowfall resulting in loss of human life, property and moreover the transportation and communication affected by the debris which ultimately delays the relief measures. Therefore in this study three major causative parameters i.e terrain, ground cover and meteorological have been incorporated for the identification of avalanche hazard zones(AHZ) by integrating Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP) method in Geographical Information System(GIS). In the first part of study, avalanche sites have been identified by the criteria related to terrain(slope, aspect and curvature) and ground cover. Weights and ratings to these causative factors and their cumulative effects have been assigned on the basis of experience and knowledge of field. In the second part of the study, single point interpolation and Inverse Distance Weighted(IDW) method has been employed as only one weather station falls in study area. Accordingly, it has been performed to generate the meteorological parameter maps(viz. air temperature and relative humidity) from the field observatories and Automatic Weather Stations(AWS) located at Baaj OP in Uri sector. Finally, the meteorological parameter maps were superimposed on the terrain-based avalanche hazard thematic layers to identify the dynamic avalanche hazard sites. Conventional weighted approach and Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP) method have been implemented for the identification of AHZ that shows approximately 55% area under maximum hazard zone. Further, the results were validated by overlapping the existing registered avalanche sites. The sites were identified through field survey and avalanche data card followed by its delineation from the toposheet(1:50,000 scale). Interestingly study found that 28% area under moderate and maximum AHZ correlated well with registered avalanche sites when they were overlapped. The accuracy for such works can be increased by field survey under favorable weather condition and by adding data from more number of AWS for predicting avalanche hazards in mountainous regions.     

Spatial distribution of snow depth based on geographically weighted regression kriging in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains,China

Snow depth is a general input variable in many models of agriculture,hydrology,climate and ecology.This study makes use of observational data of snow depth and explanatory variables to compare the accuracy and effect of geographically weighted regression kriging(GWRK)and regression kriging(RK)in a spatial interpolation of regional snow depth.The auxiliary variables are analyzed using correlation coefficients and the variance inflation factor(VIF).Three variables,Height,topographic ruggedness index(TRI),and land surface temperature(LST),are used as explanatory variables to establish a regression model for snow depth.The estimated spatial distribution of snow depth in the Bayanbulak Basin of the Tianshan Mountains in China with a spatial resolution of 1 km is obtained.The results indicate that 1)the result of GWRK's accuracy is slightly higher than that of RK(R~2=0.55 vs.R~2=0.50,RMSE(root mean square error)=0.102 m vs.RMSE=0.077 m);2)for the subareas,GWRK and RK exhibit similar estimation results of snow depth.Areas in the Bayanbulak Basin with a snow depth greater than 0.15m are mainly distributed in an elevation range of 2632.00–3269.00 m and the snow in this area comprises 45.00–46.00% of the total amount of snow in this basin.However,the GWRK resulted in more detailed information on snow depth distribution than the RK.The final conclusion is that GWRK is better suited for estimating regional snow depth distribution.     

Chemical characteristics and environmental significance of fresh snow deposition on Urumqi Glacier No. 1 of Tianshan Mountains, China

Ice and snow chemistry of alpine glaciers is crucial for the research of regional atmospheric environment change. Fresh snow samples were weekly collected from Urumqi Glacier No.1 in the Tianshan Mountains, Xin- jiang, China, and the chemical characteristics and seasonal variations of major ions, mineral dust, δ18O and trace metals were measured. Results show that the concentrations of major ions in the snow are Ca2+ SO42- NH4+ NO3- Cl- Na+ Mg2+ K+, in which Ca2+ is the dominant cation, and SO42-is the dominant anion. All major ions have close positive correlations with each other except NO3-. δ18O shows positive correlation with air temperature change during the study period. Mineral dust particle and major ionic concentrations in fresh snow have obvious seasonal change, with high concentration in spring but low concentration in summer and autumn, which indicates that the chemical mass input from Asian dust activity to snow is very significant. Temporal changes of trace metals in fresh snow, e.g., Cd, Pb, Zn, Al, Fe, have shown that human-induced pollution of central Asian region also has large contribution to the snow chemistry on alpine glaciers of the Tianshan Mountains.     

Snow cover influences the thermal regime of active layer in Urumqi River Source,Tianshan Mountains,China

Snow cover is characterized by the high albedo, low thermal conductivity, and notable heat transition during phase changes. Thus, snow cover significantly affects the ground thermal regime. A comparison of the snow cover in high latitudes or high-altitude snowy mountain regions indicates that the eastern Tianshan Mountains (China) show a characteristically thin snow cover (snow depth below 15 cm) with remarkable temporal variability. Based on snow depth, heat flux, and ground temperature from 2014 to 2015 in the Urumqi River source, the spatialtemporal characteristics of snow cover and snow cover influences on the thermal conditions of active layer in the permafrost area were analyzed. During the autumn (Sept. - Oct.), thin and discontinuous snow cover can noticeably accelerate the exothermic process of the ground, producing a cooling effect on the shallow soil. During the winter (Nov. - Mar.), it is inferred that the effective thermal insulation starts with snow depth exceeding 10 cm during early winter. However, the snow depth in this area is generally below 15 cm, and the resulting snow-induced thermal insulation during the winter is very limited. Due to common heavy snowfalls in the spring (Apr. to May), the monthly mean snow thickness in April reached to 15 cm and remained until mid-May. Snow cover during the spring significantly retarded the ground warming. Broadly, snow cover in the study area exerts a cooling effect on the active layer and plays a positive role in the development and preservation of permafrost.     

MASS BALANCE SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A CASE STUDY OF GLACIER NO. 1 AT URUMQI RIVERHEAD, TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS, CHINA

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Observations and modeling of incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest canopies in the west Tianshan Mountains,China

Forest canopy reduces shortwave radiation and increases the incoming longwave radiation to snowpacks beneath forest canopies. Furthermore, the effect of forest canopy may be changed by complex topography. In this paper, we measured and simulated the incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest at different canopy openness in the west Tianshan Mountains, China(43°16'N, 84°24'E) during spring 2013. A sensitivity study was conducted to explore the way that terrain influenced the incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest canopies. In the simulation model, measurement datasets, including air temperature, incoming shortwave radiation above canopy, and longwave radiation enhanced by adjacent terrain, were applied to calculate the incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest canopy. The simulation results were consistent with the measurements on hourly scale and daily scale. The effect of longwave radiation enhanced by terrain was important than that of shortwave radiation above forest canopy with different openness except the 20% canopy openness. The longwave radiation enhanced due to adjacent terrain increases with the slope increase and temperature rise. When air temperature(or slope) is relatively low, thelongwave radiation enhanced by adjacent terrain is not sensitive to slope(or air temperature), but the sensitivity increases with the decrease of snow cover area on sunny slope. The effect of longwave radiation is especially sensitive when the snow cover on sunny slope melts completely. The effect of incoming shortwave radiation reflected by adjacent terrain on incoming longwave radiation to snow beneath forest canopies is more slight than that of the enhanced longwave radiation.