海啸灾害后印度尼西亚班达阿齐市的土地覆盖变化与海岸带区域规划

2004年12月26日,由于欧亚板块的碰撞,40年以来最大的地震灾害发生在印度洋。地震诱发的海啸影响到Nangroe Aceh Darussalam省的许多城市,包括省会城市班达阿齐。在这地区共有超过12万人死亡,100万人无家可归。基于遥感数据的分析表明,有12万亩的土地受到了灾害。在班达阿齐市,鱼塘、住宅用地和保护区的变化是这一地区最显著的土地利用/覆盖变化,受灾前后这些用地类型的面积相应的变化了61.5%、57.8% 和77.6%。目前,印度尼西亚中央政府正在计划一个新的海岸带土地利用规划,在原来密集的海岸带建立一个缓冲区（约距海岸带2 km）。政府已经要求许多海岸带的社区代表与非政府组织参与到决策的过程中。 为了选择并采取最佳的土地利用方式,海啸灾害后的海岸带规划应该包括一些重要的基本要素。本研究主要关注作为该省社会经济活动中心的班达阿齐市。检测了由于海啸灾害造成的土地利用/覆盖变化（包括物理破坏）,特别是农业用地和居住区用地的变化,并且分析了受灾村落的不同类型及灾害对社会经济活动造成的影响。此外,还为政府以及当地居民在灾后的规划中选择更为可持续的空间布局方案提出了建议。     

走滑断层地震地表断裂位错估计方法研究

为对一次地震中可能造成的地表断裂位错作出较准确的估计,采用拟静力弹塑性有限元方法,分别对覆盖土层为粉质黏土和黏土情况下,走滑断层引发的地震地表断裂进行了数值模拟分析。根据历史震害数据回归拟合的震级M与基岩位错 的关系式以及数值计算结果,建立了震级M与地表位错 的关系式。公式中考虑了土层厚度H对地表位错 的影响,而不仅仅局限于根据震级M的大小通过统计公式来估算地表断裂位错 。结果表明,走滑断层引发的地震地表断裂位错不仅与震级的大小有关,还与土层厚度和土层性质有关;在相同震级作用下,随着土层厚度的增加,地表位错逐渐减小;在相同震级和相同土层厚度下,上覆土层为粉质黏土时产生的地表位错要大于上覆土层为黏土时产生的地表位错;根据拟合的公式估计出不同震级情况下可不考虑走滑断层影响的临界覆盖土层厚度值,有助于提高活动断裂地震危险性评估工作的可靠性。     

印度洋地震海啸(2004-12-26)及其对中国的警示

2004年12月26日印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛西北近海发生ML9级强烈地震。地震的强度是100a来全球非常罕见的。地震引起了巨大海啸,浪高近10m,波及到东南亚、南亚和东非地区10多个国家,造成近30万人遇难。地震使印度尼西亚、泰国的部分岛屿发生了地形变化。海啸在受灾国留下了大片的盐碱地。苏门答腊板块边缘的一个长距离破裂带通过长时间积累,蓄积了巨大能量。这些能量在2004-12-26集中释放出来。导致了这次地震海啸的发生。地震海啸灾害本身规模巨大,发生异常突然,再加上受灾地区人员密集,缺乏海啸灾害逃生的知识和经验。印度洋沿岸国家没有海啸预警系统,是造成这次灾害巨大伤亡的原因。中国从台湾-海南岛一线的海区,存在地震海啸的可能性。因此应不断完善海啸预警系统,提高沿海地区建设工程的防灾抗灾标准,加强防波堤建设以及采取恢复红树林等生物工程措施,预防潜在的海啸灾害。     

华北平原历史强震构造特征剖析

本文从地表地震断层、全新世断裂活动及区域构造讨论了华北平原近300年6次强震的构造特征.研究结果表明,这6次强震均有相应的地表地震断层出现,并与它们各自极震区等震线长轴方向一致.北西向地表地震断层为左旋走滑,北东向地表地震断层为右旋走滑.这些地区存在全新世活动断裂及古地震现象表明这些强震不是当地的首次强震破裂,华北平原强震存在原地重复现象.区域地震构造分析结果表明,强震地点与华北平原内第三纪断陷盆地的关系并不明显,而全新世活动断裂与华北平原周边构造的交叉部位则是近代强震活跃地区,也是值得注意的未来强震危险地点.     

地震动力作用触发的斜坡崩滑响应研究现状及展望

地震动力作用触发的斜坡崩、滑地质灾害因其巨大的致灾力引起了广泛关注,其研究主要集中在：①地震触发斜坡崩滑灾害特征和影响因素统计学分析,即从典型地震触发的大量斜坡崩滑灾害实例研究入手,从统计学角度分析地震崩滑灾害发育特征同地震参数（地震震级、地震烈度、震源深度、震中距等）和斜坡体特征（坡高、坡角、岩性、构造、水文地质条件等）之间的关系;②地震触发斜坡崩滑灾害的形成机制和动力响应特征研究,即分析地震波产生的拉压和剪切作用对斜坡体的影响及在这种作用下斜坡体发生的破坏和运动过程;③地震作用下斜坡稳定性评价和致灾预测研究,主要是评价、预测方法和技术的类别及特征。基于此阐述了该研究中存在的问题和今后的研究趋势。     

泥石流灾害对社会影响的度量分析

论述了泥石流灾害造成损失的度量．并从泥石流灾害本身、当地人口密度和经济发展水平、当地预测预报水平、防灾抗灾救灾和灾后重建能力四个方面分析了泥石流灾害对社会的影响及其度量。     

四川什邡青牛沱崩塌群特征及其形成的堰塞坝体稳定性评价

2008-5.12地震中,由于当时强烈的地震作用,使得地震灾区地表变形巨大,生态环境严重破坏。地震诱发的地质灾害威胁着灾区人民群众的生命财产安全,震中地区出现的主要灾害形式为边坡的崩滑及崩滑堆积体堵江（河、路）。本文通过对青牛沱崩塌群及崩滑堵江形成堰塞湖的基本特征的论述,分析了其形成机制和产生的危害特征,最后因地制宜地提出了防治对策。为在恶劣环境下的地质灾害评价和防治提供了一套完整的技术思路,也为以后相似情况下的其他地区的灾害评价、防治提供参考。     

玉树地震地表破裂调查与灾后重建避让选址研究

2010年4月14日07时49分40.7秒,青海省玉树县发生Ms7.1级地震。通过现场调查和分析,玉树地震的发震断裂是甘孜—玉树活动断裂的玉树段,地震产生的地表破裂长度为23km,走向北西西—北西,总体表现为左旋走滑特征,可进一步分为3段:西段呈连续延伸的左旋走滑破裂,在隆宝镇的"郭央烟宋多"附近(坐标:北纬33°03′11″、东经96°51′26″)最大水平位移达1.75m,可定为宏观震中;中段主要位于县城南侧,由多条右阶斜列的破裂组成;东段表现为逆冲兼左旋走滑。玉树地震除了造成大量房屋破坏外,次生地质灾害主要包括:地震砂土液化及其引起的公路变形、地震滑坡、地震诱发水渠破坏及其链生土质滑坡和泥石流等。通过对内外动力地质灾害的综合分析,初步提出了玉树地震灾区灾后重建避让选址的建议。     

青海省玛多县“5·22 Ms7.4地震”地表破裂与次生灾害发育特征

2021年5月22日2时04分在青海省果洛藏族自治州玛多县发生7.4级地震,为了查明此次地震产生的地表破裂和伴生次生灾害发育特征,调查组采用遥感解译和实地调查方式对地震影响区进行了调查。调查结果显示,在玛多-甘德断裂和昆仑山口-江错断裂之间形成了一条宽约75 km、长约230 km的活动断裂带,地表新发现地裂缝653条、砂土液化和喷砂冒水点1237个、地震鼓包97个、塌陷坑2个。地表破裂总体呈北西—南东向展布,自西向东出现马尾状分支的现象,东段与玛多-甘德断裂带以一定角度斜交,地裂缝整体走向与昆仑山口-江错断裂走向高度一致。地震地表破裂发育特征显示,此次玛多Ms7.4级地震的发震断裂为昆仑山口-江错断裂,断面整体南倾,性质为左行走滑。此次大地震的发生是在印度板块向青藏高原挤压背景下,巴颜喀拉地块强烈向东挤出构造作用导致其北部走滑断裂发生左旋运动的结果。调查结果为地方政府关于灾区地震灾害损失评估及灾后重建提供了第一手基础资料。     

从同震和震后形变分析1668年M8.5级郯城地震对周边地震活动性的影响

以山东郯城1668年大地震为例,以前人地表地质调查结果为约束,利用弹性位错理论初步获取了该地震的同震破裂模型;在此基础上,基于粘弹性分层模型分析了该地震的同震和震后形变,同时以主震断层为接收断层计算了库仑应力分布,进一步讨论了地幔不同粘滞性系数对地表形变和库仑应力变化的影响。计算结果显示,该地震是一个右旋走滑为主兼有一定逆冲性质的地震,其同震位移巨大,能量释放较彻底;同震破裂造成震中郯城县西北、东北和南部部分断层库仑应力增加,而震后形变使得这些断层库仑应力进一步增加,在单县、宿迁和日照等地,地震后350 a库仑应力变化量达到+1bar-+1MPa量级;地幔粘滞性系数不同,形变量和库仑应力变化达到稳定的时间不同,但最终趋于稳定的数值基本一致。     

同震滑坡发生概率研究——新一代地震滑坡危险性模型

地震滑坡发生真实概率研究基本空白。本研究创新性的利用贝叶斯概率方法与机器模型开展了中国地震滑坡危险性真实概率研究,制作了第一代中国地震滑坡危险性概率图。基于9个地震案例开展研究,包括1999年台湾集集、2005年克什米尔、2008年汶川、2010年玉树、2013年芦山、2013岷县、2014鲁甸、2015尼泊尔、2017九寨沟地震,这9次地震中7次发生在中国,2005年克什米尔与2015尼泊尔地震均发生在中国邻区,可以更好的控制模型预测精度。这些地震事件均有详细完整的,利用面要素标识的地震滑坡数据,包括306 435处真实的地震滑坡记录。考虑到真实的地震滑坡发生区域,滑坡面积规模的差别,滑坡与不滑样本的比例等因素,共选取了5 117 000个模型训练样本。选择绝对高程、相对高差、坡度、坡向、斜坡曲率、坡位、地形湿度指数、土地覆盖类型、植被覆盖度、与断层距离、地层、年均降水量、地震动峰值加速度共13个地震滑坡影响因子。采用贝叶斯概率方法与机器学习模型相结合,建立地震滑坡发生的多因素影响模型,得到各个连续因子的权重与分类因子的各个分类的权重。再将模型应用到整个中国研究区,地震动峰值加速度因子为触发因子。分别考虑研究区在经历不同地震动峰值加速度（0.1~1 g,每0.1 g一个结果,共10个结果）下的地震滑坡发生真实概率。此外,还结合中国地震动峰值加速度分布图,得到了中国地震动峰值加速度背景下的地震滑坡发生真实概率分布。     

Topographic and geologic controls on landslides induced by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake and its aftershocks: an example from the Trishuli Valley,central Nepal

The devastating Gorkha earthquake (M _w 7.8) on April 25, 2015 and its aftershocks triggered numerous landslides across the Lesser and Higher Himalayas of central Nepal. This study aims to characterize these landslides, based on the local topography and geology, and to develop data for landslide hazard zoning. This study focused on a mountainous catchment of the Trishuli River, where a digital elevation model was used to examine hilllslope and river profiles, aerial photos were used to identify 155 coherent landslides, and satellite images were used to map 912 earthquake-induced landslides. The topography of this area is mainly characterized by incised V-shaped inner gorges and steep (> 35°) SW-facing scarp slopes. Although most of the coherent landslides were not reactivated by the earthquakes, the Gogane landslide was affected by the earthquake and partly failed. A majority of the earthquake-induced landslides (91%) were new landslides, while the others were enlarged old landslides. The earthquake-induced landslides occurred mainly on the steep slopes of V-shaped inner gorges and scarp slopes, in gneiss and quartzite strata of the Lesser Himalayas, and they were primarily associated with fractured rock masses. This analysis provides a framework for zoning areas vulnerable to earthquake-induced landslides.     

Effects of strong ground motion on the susceptibility of gully type debris flows

Typhoon Herb in 1996 caused widespread debris flows in central Taiwan. The 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake on September 21, 1999, which also took place in central Taiwan, induced many landslides in the region. These landslides turned into debris flows when Typhoon Toraji struck Taiwan in 2001. This research selects three regions which suffered a ground motion class of 5, 6, and 7 on the Richter scale during the Chi-Chi earthquake as study areas. Air photos from 1997 and 2001 of these regions are used to map the gully-type debris flows that took place after Typhoons Herb and Toraji, respectively. The gullies adjacent to the debris flow, but without a trace of debris flows, are also mapped as the non-debris flow data. The topography, hydrogeology, and rainfall factors – where debris flow occurred and in which there was no occurrence of debris flows in these gullies were retrieved from DTM, geological maps, and iso-countour maps, and of rainfall through GIS processing. These characteristic are introduced into a probabilistic neural network to build a predicting model for the probability of the occurrence of debris flows. Three series of cross analyses are conducted to compare the probability of the occurrence of debris flows of the same dataset predicted by different prediction models. The results reveal that the susceptibility of debris flows was elevated after the Chi-Chi earthquake struck. The upsurge of susceptibility was more obvious for the regions that received a higher class of ground motion.     

Statistical approach to earthquake-induced landslide susceptibility

Susceptibility analysis for predicting earthquake-induced landslides has most frequently been done using deterministic methods; multivariate statistical methods have not previously been applied. In this study, however, we introduce a statistical methodology that uses the intensity of earthquake shaking as a landslide triggering factor. This methodology is applied in a study of shallow earthquake-induced landslides in central western Taiwan. The results show that we can accurately interpret landslide distribution in the study area and predict the occurrence of landslides in neighboring regions. This susceptibility model is capable of predicting shallow landslides induced during an earthquake scenario with similar range of ground shaking, without requiring the use of geotechnical, groundwater or failure depth data.     

Back analysis of landslide susceptibility zonation mapping for the 2005 Kashmir earthquake: an assessment of the reliability of susceptibility zoning maps

The October 2005 earthquake triggered several thousand landslides in the Lesser Himalaya of Kashmir in northern Pakistan and India. Analyses of ASTER satellite imagery from 2001 were compared with a study undertaken in 2005; the results show the extent and nature of pre- and co-/post-seismic landsliding. Within a designated study area of ~2,250 km², the number of landslides increased from 369 in 2001 to 2,252 in October 2005. Assuming a balanced baseline landsliding frequency over the 4 years, most of the new landslides were likely triggered by the 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks. These landslides mainly happened in specific geologic formations, along faults, rivers and roads, and in shrubland/grassland and agricultural land. Preliminary results from repeat photographs from 2005 and 2006 after the snowmelt season reveal that much of the ongoing landsliding occurred along rivers and roads, and the extensive earthquake-induced fissuring. Although the susceptibility zoning success rate for 2001 was low, many of the co-/post-seismic landsliding in 2005 occurred in areas that had been defined as being potentially dangerous on the 2001 map. While most of the area in 2001 was (very) highly susceptible to future landsliding, most of the area in 2005 was only moderate to low susceptible, that is, most of the landsliding in 2005 actually occurred in the potentially dangerous areas on the 2001 map. This study supports the view that although susceptibility zoning maps represent a powerful tool in natural hazard management, caution is needed when developing and using such maps.     

The socioeconomic and environmental effects of the 2003 landslides in the Rumphi and Ntcheu Districts (Malawi)

Despite the occurrence of fatal landslides in Malawi, literature is not available on their socio-economic and environmental effects. Limited or no research is being carried out in this area except for technical reports commissioned by the government. Landsliding does not appear on the ten environmental concerns affecting the nation. This paper attempts to examine the socio-economic and environmental effects of landslides that struck parts of Ntcheu district of central Malawi and Rumphi district of northern Malawi in 2003. This paper asserts that poor rural people are more vulnerable to landslides and their resilience is low. Unsustainable production systems, inappropriate location of settlements, low incomes coupled with lack of government support aggravates the situation. Mitigation measures, which were in conflict with people’s production systems, prevented them from participating in the rehabilitation of the areas. Lack of support from government for the reconstruction and regeneration of local production had economic effects such as loss of livelihood, unemployment, decreased productivity and out migration to urban centers. The study recommends the participation of all stakeholders in reducing the impacts of landslides and the development of disaster management plans to achieve timely response to landslide hazards.     

A Hazard Assessment Method for Potential Earthquake-Induced Landslides – A Case Study in Huaxian County, Shaanxi Province

The hazard assessment of potential earthquake-induced landslides is an important aspect of the study of earthquake-induced landslides. In this study, we assessed the hazard of potential earthquake-induced landslides in Huaxian County with a new hazard assessment method. This method is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the Newmark cumulative displacement assessment model. The model considers a comprehensive suite of information, including the seismic activities and engineering geological conditions in the study area, and simulates the uncertainty of the intensity parameters of the engineering geological rock groups using the Monte Carlo method. Unlike previous assessment studies on ground motions with a given exceedance probability level, the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides obtained by the method presented in this study allows for the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides in different parts of the study area in the future. The assessment of the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides in this study showed good agreement with the historical distribution of earthquake-induced landslides. This indicates that the assessment properly reflects the macroscopic rules for the development of earthquake-induced landslides in the study area, and can provide a reference framework for the management of the risk of earthquake-induced landslides and land planning.     

Impacts of September 21, 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake on the characteristics of gully-type debris flows in central Taiwan

Debris flows are more frequent in central Taiwan, because of its mountainous geography. For example, many debris flows were induced by Typhoon Herb in 1996. The Chi-Chi earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3, which took place in 1999 in central Taiwan, induced many landslides in this region. Some landslides turned into debris flows when Typhoon Toraji struck Taiwan in 2001. This study investigates the characteristics of the gullies where debris flows have occurred for a comparison. Aerial photos of these regions dated in 1997 (before the earthquake) and 2001 (after the earthquake) are used to identify the occurrence of gully-type debris flows. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is applied to acquire hydrological and geomorphic characteristics: stream gradient, stream length, catchment gradient, catchment area, form factor, and geology unit of these gullies. These characteristics in different study regions are presented in a statistical approach. The study of how strong ground motion affects the debris flows occurrence is conducted. The characteristics of the debris flow gullies triggered by typhoons before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake are quantitatively compared. The analysis results show that a significant transformation in the characteristics was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. In general, the transformation points out a lower hydrological and geomorphic threshold to trigger debris flows after the Chi-Chi earthquake. The susceptibility of rock units to strong ground motion is also examined. The analysis of debris flow density and accumulated rainfall in regions of different ground motion also reveal that the rainfall threshold decreases after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

2008汶川大地震极端滑坡事件初步研究

为了分析汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害事件强度和影响,本文以汶川地震诱发滑坡极端事件为线索,在统计分析前10个规模最大、位移最远、危害最重及最大滑坡堰塞湖分布特征的基础上,重点研究前三甲极端滑坡事件的简要特征,初步揭示:(1)汶川地震诱发的极端滑坡事件主要沿龙门山中央断裂(映秀—北川断裂带)和Ⅹ-Ⅺ高烈度地段分布,强震的振动力、地震主传播方向和发震断裂NE向扩展作用是启动极端滑坡事件的主要原因;(2)规模最大的前10个滑坡和距离最大的前10个高速远程滑坡具有很好的重合特征,两者都反映汶川地震诱发的高能量滑坡事件;其中,规模最大的绵竹市安县大光包滑坡,初步估算体积约7.42×108m3,最大运动距离达到3.5km,距离排名第二;距离最大的绵竹文家沟高速远程滑坡,初步估算最大位移为4.2km,其体积约1.5×108m3,规模排名第二,这两个滑坡都属于世界上罕见的大型高能量高速远程滑坡;(3)前10个最大的灾难性滑坡事件,累计导致3751人死亡,单个滑坡引起的人员死亡超过100人,最多的达到1600人,属于世界上罕见的灾难性滑坡事件;(4)潜在危险性最大的10个滑坡堰塞湖,曾经威胁几十万人的生活安全,其中,最大的北川唐家山滑坡堰塞湖,曾经威胁下游绵阳市30万人的生活安全,这些滑坡堰塞湖都及时采取人工开挖措施排除了潜在危险。