Forensic seismology revisited

The first technical discussions, held in 1958, on methods of verifying compliance with a treaty banning nuclear explosions, concluded that a monitoring system could be set up to detect and identify such explosions anywhere except underground: the difficulty with underground explosions was that there would be some earthquakes that could not be distinguished from an explosion. The development of adequate ways of discriminating between earthquakes and underground explosions proved to be difficult so that only in 1996 was a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) finally negotiated. Some of the important improvements in the detection and identification of underground tests—that is in forensic seismology—have been made by the UK through a research group at the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE). The paper describes some of the advances made in identification since 1958, particularly by the AWE Group, and the main features of the International Monitoring System (IMS), being set up to verify the Test Ban. Once the Treaty enters into force, then should a suspicious disturbance be detected the State under suspicion of testing will have to demonstrate that the disturbance was not a test. If this cannot be done satisfactorily the Treaty has provisions for on-site inspections (OSIs): for a suspicious seismic disturbance for example, an international team of inspectors will search the area around the estimated epicentre of the disturbance for evidence that a nuclear test really took place. Early observations made at epicentral distances out to 2,000 km from the Nevada Test Site showed that there is little to distinguish explosion seismograms from those of nearby earthquakes: for both source types the short-period (SP: ∼1 Hz) seismograms are complex showing multiple arrivals. At long range, say 3,000–10,000 km, loosely called teleseismic distances, the AWE Group noted that SP P waves—the most widely and well-recorded waves from underground explosions—were in contrast simple, comprising one or two cycles of large amplitude followed by a low-amplitude coda. Earthquake signals on the other hand were often complex with numerous arrivals of similar amplitude spread over 35 s or more. It therefore appeared that earthquakes could be recognised on complexity. Later however, complex explosion signals were observed which reduced the apparent effectiveness of complexity as a criterion for identifying earthquakes. Nevertheless, the AWE Group concluded that for many paths to teleseismic distances, Earth is transparent for P signals and this provides a window through which source differences will be most clearly seen. Much of the research by the Group has focused on understanding the influence of source type on P seismograms recorded at teleseismic distances. Consequently the paper concentrates on teleseismic methods of distinguishing between explosions and earthquakes. One of the most robust criteria for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions is the m _b : M _s criterion which compares the amplitudes of the SP P waves as measured by the body-wave magnitude m _b, and the long-period (LP: ∼0.05 Hz) Rayleigh-wave amplitude as measured by the surface-wave magnitude M _s; the P and Rayleigh waves being the main wave types used in forensic seismology. For a given M _s, the m _b for explosions is larger than for most earthquakes. The criterion is difficult to apply however, at low magnitude (say m _b < 4.5) and there are exceptions—earthquakes that look like explosions. A difficulty with identification criteria developed in the early days of forensic seismology was that they were in the main empirical—it was not known why they appeared to work and if there were test sites or earthquakes where they would fail. Consequently the AWE Group in cooperation with the University of Cambridge used seismogram modelling to try and understand what controls complexity of SP P seismograms, and to put the m _b : M _s criterion on a theoretical basis. The results of this work show that the m _b : M _s criterion is robust because several factors contribute to the separation of earthquakes and explosions. The principal reason for the separation however, is that for many orientations of the earthquake source there is at least one P nodal plane in the teleseismic window and this biases m _b low. Only for earthquakes with near 45° dip-slip mechanisms where the antinode of P is in the source window is the m _b:M _s criterion predicted to fail. The results from modelling are consistent with observation—in particular there are earthquakes, “anomalous events”, which look explosion-like on the m _b:M _s criterion, that turn out to have mechanisms close to 45° dip-slip. Fortunately the P seismograms from such earthquakes usually show pP and sP, the reflections from the free surface of P and S waves radiated upwards. From the pP–P and sP–P times the focal depth can be estimated. So far the estimated depth of the anomalous events have turned out to be ∼20 km, too deep to be explosions. Studies show that the observation that P seismograms are more complex than predicted by simple models can be explained on the weak-signal hypothesis: the standard phases, direct P and the surface reflections, are weak because of amongst other things, the effects of the radiation pattern or obstacles on the source-to-receiver path; other non-standard arrivals then appear relatively large on the seismograms. What has come out of the modelling of P seismograms is a criterion for recognising suspicious disturbances based on simplicity rather than complexity. Simple P seismograms for earthquakes at depths of more than a few kilometres are likely to be radiated only to stations that lie in a confined range of azimuths and distances. If then, simple seismograms are recorded over a wide range of distances and particularly azimuths, it is unlikely the source is an earthquake at depth. It is possible to test this using the relative amplitudes of direct P and later arrivals that might be surface reflections. The procedure is to use only the simple P seismograms on the assumption that whereas the propagation through Earth may make a signal more complex it is unlikely to make it simpler. From the amplitude of the coda of these seismograms, bounds can be placed on the size of possible pP and sP. The relative-amplitude method is then used to search for orientations of the earthquake source that are compatible with the observations. If no such orientations are found the source must be shallow so that any surface reflections merge with direct P, and hence could be an explosion. The IMS when completed will be a global network of 321 monitoring stations, including 170 seismological stations principally to detect the seismic waves from earthquakes and underground explosions. The IMS will also have stations with hydrophones, microbarographs and radionuclide detectors to detect explosions in the oceans and the atmosphere and any isotopes in the air characteristic of a nuclear test. The Global Communications Infrastructure provides communications between the IMS stations and the International Data Centre (IDC), Vienna, where the recordings from the monitoring stations is collected, collated, and analysed. The IDC issues bulletins listing geophysical disturbances, to States Signatories to the CTBT. The assessment of the disturbances to decide whether any are possible explosions, is a task for State Signatories. For each Signatory to do a detailed analysis of all disturbances would be expensive and time consuming. Fortunately many disturbances can be readily identified as earthquakes and removed from consideration—a process referred to as “event screening”. For example, many earthquakes with epicentres over the oceans can be distinguished from underwater explosions, because an explosion signal is of much higher frequency than that of earthquakes that occur below the ocean bed. Further, many earthquakes could clearly be identified at the IDC on the m _b : M _s criterion, but there is a difficulty—how to set the decision line. The possibility has to be very small that an explosion will be classed by mistake, as an earthquake. The decision line has therefore to be set conservatively, consequently with routine application of current screening criteria, only about 50% of earthquakes can be positively identified as such. Various methods have been proposed whereby a “determined violator” could avoid the provisions of a CTBT and carry out a test that would be either undetected or detected but not identified as an explosion. The increase in complexity and cost of such a test should discourage any State from attempting it. In addition, there is always the possibility of some stations detecting the test, the test being identified as suspicious, and so subject to an OSI. With time as the IMS becomes more efficient and effective it will act increasingly to deter anyone contemplating a clandestine test, from going ahead. What has emerged is several robust criteria. The criteria include: location, which when combined with hydro-acoustic data can identify earthquakes under the sea; m _b : M _s; and depth of focus. More detailed study is required of any remaining seismic disturbance that is regarded as suspicious: for example, is close to a site where nuclear tests have been carried out in the past. Any disturbance that is shown to be explosion-like, may be the subject of an OSI. One surprise is how little plate tectonics has contributed to resolving problems in forensic seismology. Much of the evidence for plate tectonics comes from seismological studies so it would be expected that the implications for Earth structure arising from forensic seismology would be consistent with plate-tectonic models. So far the AWE Group have found little synergy between plate tectonics and forensic seismology. It is to be hoped that the large volume of seismological data of high quality now being collected by the IMS and the increasing number of digital stations, will result in a revised Earth model that is consistent with the findings of forensic seismology, so that a future review of progress will show that the forensic seismologist can draw on this model in attempting to interpret apparently anomalous seismograms.

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Quantitative studies of global seismicity (2)

In this paper, the seismicity indexes of global earthquakesM ≥ 6 during 1964–1983 were calculated, using data of ISC and USGS. The authors suggested a method suitable to make a set of regression formulas betweenm _bandM _s. Calculation showed that the level of global seismicity of shallow earthquakes during the years 1964–1965, 1968, 1971, 1975–1976 was higher than normal, especially the peak for the years 1975–1976 was more conspicuous. The year 1984 took the place of the year 1954 in the 20th century as the year of lowest global shallow focus seismicity. According to the actual value ofA(b) calculated, the level of deep focus seismicity reached the highest point in 1971 and dropped to the lowest point in 1977. In the time interval of 1977–1983 the global shallow focus seismicity decreased continuously whereas the deep focus seismicity increased with fluctuations.     

Improved seismic discrimination using pattern recognition

The problem of discriminating between earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions is formulated as a problem in pattern recognition. As such it may be separated into two stages, feature extraction and classification. The short-period (SP) features consist of m_b and autoregressive parameters characterising the preceding noise, signal and coda. The long-period (LP) features consist of LP power spectral estimates taken within various group velocity windows. Contrary to common usage we have extracted features from horizontal Rayleigh waves and Love waves as well as vertical Rayleigh waves. The classification is performed by approximating the statistical distribution of earthquake and explosion feature vectors by multivariate normal distributions.The method has been tested on a data base containing 52 explosions and 73 earthquakes from Eurasia recorded at NORSAR between 1971 and 1975. Several of these events are difficult on the m_b : M_s diagram [m_b(PDE) and M_s (NORSAR) have been used]. The data set was divided into a learning and an independent data set. All of the events both from the learning data set and the independent data set were correctly classified using the new procedures. Furthermore, the increase in separation as compared to the m_b : M_s discriminant is significant.     

The empirical relationships between M s, m b and M L for China and vicinity

Data from 753 earthquakes are used to determine a relationship between surface-wave magnitude (M _s) and bodywave magnitude (m _b), and from 541 earthquakes to determine a relationship between surface-wave magnitude (M _s) and local magnitude (M _L) for China and vicinity: M _s=0.9883 m _b-0.0420, M _s=0.9919 M _L-0.1773. The relationship of M _s versus m _b is obtained for 292 events occurred in the Chinese mainland in the time period from 1964 to 1996, 291 events occurred in Taiwan in the time period from 1964 to 1995 and 170 events occurred in the surrounding area. Standard deviation of the fitting is 0.445. Relationship of M _s versus M _L is obtained for 36 events occurred in the Chinese mainland, 293 events occurred in Taiwan, China and 212 events occurred in the surrounding area. The total amount is 541 events. Standard deviation of the fitting is 0.4673. The uncertainties of the converted M _s in different magnitude intervals can be estimated using complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF). In the relationship of M _s versus m _b, taking ±0.25 as a range of uncertainties, in magnitude interval m _b 4.0–4.9, the probabilities for the converted M _s taken value less than (M _s-0.25) and more than (M _s+0.25) are 17% and 27% respectively. Similarly, we have probabilities for m _b 5.0–5.9 are 34% and 20% and that for m _b 6.0–6.9 are 11% and 47%. In the relationship of M _s versus M _L, if the range of uncertainties is still taken as ±0.25, the corresponding probabilities for magnitude interval M _L 4.0–4.9 are 22% and 38%, for M _L 5.0–5.9 are 20% and 15% and for magnitude interval M _L 6.0–6.9, are 15% and 29%, respectively. The relationships developed in this paper can be used for the conversion of one magnitude scale into another magnitude scales conveniently. The estimation of uncertainties described in this paper is more accurate and more objective than the usual estimation expressed by deviation. The estimations described in this paper indicate various dispersions in different magnitude intervals of original data. The estimations of uncertainties described by probabilities can be well connected with the total estimations of uncertainties in seismic hazard assessment.     

Regional characteristics of coda attenuation after the lancang-Gengma earthquake

In the light of the single scattering model of coda originating from local earthquakes, and based on the aftershock coda registered respectively at the 4 short period stations installed near the foci shortly after theM7.6 Lancang andM7.2 Gengma earthquakes, this paper has tentatively calculated the rate of amplitude attenuation and theQ _c-value of the coda in the Lancang and Gengma areas using a newly-founded synthetic determination method. Result of the study shows the rate of coda amplitude attenuation demonstrates remarkable regional differences respectively in the southern and northern areas. The southern area presents a faster attenuation (Q _c=114), whereas the northern area shows a slower attenuation (Q _c=231). The paper also discusses the reasons causing such differences. Result of the study also suggests a fairly good linear relation between the coda source factorA _o(f) and the seismic moment and the magnitude. Using the earthquake scaling law, the following formulas can be derived: lgM ₀=lgA ₀(f)+17.6,M _D=0.67lgA ₀(f)+1.21 and logM ₀=1.5M _D+15.79. In addition, the rates of amplitude attenuationβ _s andβ _m are respectively calculated using the single scattering and multiple scattering models, and the ratioβ _s/β_m=1.20−1.50 is found for the results respectively from the two models. Finally, the mean free pathL of the S-wave scattering in the southern and northern areas are determined to be 54 km and 122 km respectively by the relations which can distinguish between the inherentQ _i and scatteringQ _s, testify to this areas having lowQ-values correspond to stronger scatterings. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 71–82, 1992. This study is partly supported by the Seismological Science Foundation of the State Seismological Bureau of China, and the present English version of the paper is translated from its Chinese original by Wenyi Xia, Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province.     

The use of teleseismic P-wave complexity for seismic event screening – results determined from GRF and GERESS array data

Seismic data recorded at the broad-band teleseismic GRF array and theshort-period regional GERESS array, which is a designated IMS primarystation, are analyzed to determine the effectiveness of teleseismic P-wave complexity for the purpose of seismic event screening within theframework of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification. For theGRF array, seismic waveform data from nearly 200 nuclear explosions havebeen recorded since its installation in the late 1970's, which were studiedalong with several thousand earthquakes from the last few years.Additionally, we investigated teleseismic P wave complexity for a similarnumber of earthquakes recorded at GERESS. However, owing to itsoperation starting in 1991, only a limited number of nuclear explosionseismograms are available for study.For nuclear explosions, complexity does not exceed levels of 0.3 except fora number of events from the Nevada Test Site recorded only at the GRFarray and located at a large distance where PcP may interfere with the initialP wavelet. Since all events with complexity at GRF larger than 0.3 areexclusively located on Pahute Mesa within the Nevada Test Site,near-source geology or topography must play a dominant role for theseincreased complexity values, while PcP may not contribute significantly tothe high-frequency energy measured by the complexity parameter.Although many earthquakes show complexities below this level, for morethan 25% of the earthquakes investigated the complexities determined arelarger than 0.7, thus showing distinctly larger values than nuclearexplosions. Therefore, this percentage may be screened as earthquakes fromall seismic events detected. As currently only about half of the eventsdetected by the global IMS network are screened out based on focal depthand the m _b :M _s criterion, teleseismic P-wavecomplexity may contribute significantly to the task of seismic eventscreening.     

Comparison between earthquake magnitudes determined by China seismograph network and US seismograph networks (I): Body wave magnitude

Introduction Gutenberg (1945a, b) introduced body wave magnitude based on P, PP and S waves (with a period of 0.5~12.0 s) of teleseismic events. Body wave magnitude includes mb determined with short-period seismograph and mB determined with middle- and long-period seismographs. Some-times it is written as m, which is referred to as unified earthquake magnitude. mb represents earth-quake magnitude measured with body wave amplitude around 1 s, while mB represents earthquake magnitude measured …     

Regional Magnitude Scaling, Transportability, and Ms:mb Discrimination at Small Magnitudes

—?Data sets of m _b (Pn) and m _b (Lg) measurements are presented for three continental regions in order to investigate scaling relationships with moment magnitude M _w and event discrimination at small magnitudes. Compilations of published measurements are provided for eastern North American and central Asian earthquakes, and new measurements are reported for earthquakes located in western United States. Statistical tests on M _w :m _b relationships show that the m _b (Lg) scale of Nuttli (1973) is transportable between tectonic regions, and a single, unified M _w :m _b (Lg) relationship satisfies observations for M _w ～4.2–6.5 in all regions. A unified relationship is also developed for nuclear explosions detonated at the Nevada Test Site and test sites of the former Soviet Union. Regional m _b for explosions scale at higher rates than for earthquakes, and of significance is the finding that m _b (Pn) for explosions scales at a higher rate than m _b (Lg). A model is proposed where differences in scaling rates are related to effects of spectral overshoot and near-field Rg scattering on the generation of Pn and Lg waves by explosions. For earthquakes, m _b (Pn) and m _b (Lg) scale similarly, showing rates near 1.0 or 2/3?·?log₁₀ M _o (seismic moment).¶M _w :m _b (Lg) scaling results are converted to unified M _s :m _b (Lg) relationships using scaling laws between log M _o and M _s . For earthquakes with M _s greater than 3.0, the scaling rate is 0.69?·?M _s , which is the same as it is for nuclear explosions if M _s is proportional to 1.12?·?log M _o, as determined by NTS observations. Thus, earthquake and explosion populations are parallel and separated by 0.68 m _b units for large events. For small events (M _s ?M _s :m _b (Lg) plots for stable and tectonic regions, respectively. While the scaling rate for explosions is ～0.69, this value is uncertain due to paucity of M _o observations at small yields. Measurements of [m _b (P)???m _b (Lg)] for earthquakes in the western United States have an average value of ?0.33?±?.03 m _b units, in good agreement with Nuttli's estimate of m _b bias for NTS. This result suggests that Nuttli's method for estimating test site bias can be extended to earthquakes to make estimates of bias on regional scales. In addition, a new approach for quick assessments of regional bias is proposed where M _s :m _b (P) observations are compared with M _s :m _b (Lg) relationships. Catalog M _s :m _b (P) data suggest that m _b bias is significant for tectonic regions of southern Asia, averaging about ?0.4 m _b units.     

Homogenization of Earthquake Catalog for Northeast India and Adjoining Region

A catalog for northeast India and the adjoining region for the period 1897–2009 with 4,497 earthquakes events is compiled for homogenization to moment magnitude M _w,GCMT in the magnitude range 3–8.7. Relations for conversion of m _b and M _s magnitudes to M _w,GCMT are derived using three different methods, namely, linear standard regression, inverted standard regression (ISR) and orthogonal standard regression (OSR), for different magnitude ranges based on events data for the catalog period 1976–2006. The OSR relations for M _s to M _w,GCMT conversion derived in this paper have significantly lower errors in regression parameters compared to the relations reported in other studies. Since the number of events with magnitude ≥7 for this region is scanty, we, therefore, considered whole India region to obtain the regression relationships between M _w,GCMT and M _s,ISC. A relationship between M _w,GCMT and M _w,NEIC is also obtained based on 17 events for the range 5.2 ≤ magnitude ≤ 6.6. A unified homogeneous catalog prepared using the conversion relations derived in this paper can serve as a reference catalog for seismic hazard assessment studies in northeast India and the adjoining region.     

Large scale characteristic distance between strong earthquake

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Regional moments,energy levels,and a new discriminant

Teleseismic observations of explosions tend to be richer in short-period energy than are earthquakes, thus the effectiveness of them _b M _s discriminant. At regional distances the same basic separation occurs for smaller events in terms ofM _L M ₀ (Woods et al., 1993) andm _b M ₀ (Patton andWalter, 1993). While these studies demonstrate the basic differences in excitation, they suffer in practical application because of the detailed information required in the retrieval ofM ₀ . In this paper, we introduce a new method of discrimination, based on the energy strength (M _E ) from broadband regional records that appears to be effective and efficient. In this method all events are processed as earthquakes, and explosions are distinguished by their stronger energy levels relative to their long-period amplitudes. Results from 29 events recorded by TERRAscope, sampling 15 explosions from NTS and 14 earthquakes from the southwestern United States, are represented, indicating complete separation (45 data points).M _L =3.6 is the smallest event examined to date but the method can probably be extended to even smaller levels in calibrated regions.     

Spectral characteristics of natural and artificial seismic events in the Lop Nor test site, China

Seismic discriminants based on the spectral seismogram and spectral magnitude techniques have been tested to discriminate between three events; a nuclear explosion which took place in Lop Nor, China with m _b 6.1 and two earthquakes from the closest area with m _b 5.5 and 5.3, respectively. The spectral seismogram of the three events shows that the frequency content of the nuclear explosion differs from that of the earthquakes where the P wave is richier in high frequency content in the nuclear explosion than the corresponding earthquakes. It is also observed that the energy decays more rapidly for the nuclear explosion than for the earthquakes. Furthermore, the spectral magnitudes reveal significant differences in the spectra between the nuclear explosion and the two earthquakes. The observed differences appear to be quite enough to provide a reliable discriminant. The estimated stress drop from the magnitude spectra indicates a higher stress drop of the nuclear explosion relative to the earthquakes of the same tectonic region.     

Comparison between different earthquake magnitudes determined by China Seismograph Network

By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes (lo-cal magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes MS and MS7, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period body wave magnitude mb) determined by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, on the basis of observation data collected by China Seismograph Network between 1983 and 2004. Empirical relations between different magnitudes have been obtained. The result shows that: 1 As different magnitude scales reflect radiated energy by seismic waves within different periods, earthquake magnitudes can be described more objectively by using different scales for earthquakes of different magnitudes. When the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, local magnitude ML can be a preferable scale; In case M<4.5, there is little difference between the magnitude scales; In case 4.5MS, i.e., MS underestimates magnitudes of such events, therefore, mB can be a better choice; In case M>6.0, MS>mB>mb, both mB and mb underestimate the magnitudes, so MS is a preferable scale for deter-mining magnitudes of such events (6.08.5, a saturation phenomenon appears in MS, which cannot give an accurate reflection of the magnitudes of such large events; 2 In China, when the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, there is almost no difference between ML and MS, and thus there is no need to convert be-tween the two magnitudes in practice; 3 Although MS and MS7 are both surface wave magnitudes, MS is in general greater than MS7 by 0.2~0.3 magnitude, because different instruments and calculation formulae are used; 4 mB is almost equal to mb for earthquakes around mB4.0, but mB is larger than mb for those of mB≥4.5, because the periods of seismic waves used for measuring mB and mb are different though the calculation formulae are the same.     

Observed Characteristics of Regional Seismic Phases and Implications for P/S Discrimination in the European Arctic

—?In this paper, we use data from seismic stations operated by NORSAR, the Kola Regional Seismological Centre (KRSC) and IRIS to study the characteristics of regional phases in the European Arctic, with emphasis on the P/S ratio discriminant. While the detection and location capability of the regional station network is outstanding, source classification of small seismic events has proved very difficult. For example, the m _b ?=?3.5 seismic event near Novaya Zemlya on 16 August, 1997 has been the subject of extensive analysis in order to locate it reliably and to classify the source type. We consider the application of the P/S discriminant in the context of this event and other events observed at regional distances in the European Arctic. We show that the P/S ratios of Novaya Zemlya nuclear explosions measured in the 1–3?Hz filter band scale with magnitude, indicating a need for caution and further research when applying P/S discriminants. Using mainly data from the large NORSAR array, we note that observed P/S amplitude ratios in the European Arctic show large variability for the same source type and similar propagation paths, even when considering closely spaced observation points. This effect is most pronounced at far regional distances and relatively low frequencies (typically 1–3?Hz), but it is also significant on closer recordings (around 10 degrees) and at higher frequencies (up to about 8?Hz). Our conclusion from this study is that the P/S ratio at high frequencies (e.g., 6–8?Hz) shows promise as a discriminant between low-magnitude earthquakes and explosions in the European Arctic, but its application will require further research, including extensive regional calibration and detailed station-source corrections. Such research should also focus on combining the P/S ratio with other short-period discriminants, such as complexity and spectral ratios.     

Study of Regional Surface Waves and Frequency-dependent Ms:mb Discrimination in the European Arctic

—?Accurate discrimination of seismic events with a regional network requires detailed knowledge of the propagation characteristics of seismic waves in the region. At present, such propagation characteristics are reasonably well known for P and S waves in the European Arctic, however much work remains to be done regarding surface wave propagation and magnitude estimation.¶Regional long-period or broadband seismic data in digital form has been available in the European Arctic for only a few years. In order to assess regional surface wave propagation, and in particular to evaluate the M _s :m _b discriminant at regional distances, it is therefore necessary to take advantage of the historic analog recordings. The station APA in Apatity forms a unique source of such data, with high-quality long-period seismic recordings of regional earthquakes and nuclear explosions dating back about 30 years.¶This paper presents initial results from a project to digitize APA surface waves of selected regional events. The recordings for recent years have been compared to a colocated broadband Guralp three-component seismometer in order to verify the response characteristics and the quality of the digitization process. It turns out that the quality of the digitized records is excellent, and can be used over a spectral band ranging from 5?seconds to at least 30?seconds period.¶We demonstrate the capabilities of the APA surface wave recordings to provide a promising separation of earthquakes and explosions in the European Arctic over a range of frequencies using the M _s :m _b discriminant, although we note that additional work is required in regionalization of the propagation paths to take into account the major tectonic features in the region. We also note that the body-wave magnitudes provided by international agencies are not always reliable for events in this region, and must be reassessed in order to make full use of the earthquake-explosion discrimination potential.     

Monitoring the West Bohemian earthquake swarm in 2008/2009 by a temporary small-aperture seismic array

The most recent intense earthquake swarm in West Bohemia lasted from 6 October 2008 to January 2009. Starting 12 days after the onset, the University of Potsdam monitored the swarm by a temporary small-aperture seismic array at 10 km epicentral distance. The purpose of the installation was a complete monitoring of the swarm including micro-earthquakes (M _L < 0). We identify earthquakes using a conventional short-term average/long-term average trigger combined with sliding-window frequency-wavenumber and polarisation analyses. The resulting earthquake catalogue consists of 14,530 earthquakes between 19 October 2008 and 18 March 2009 with magnitudes in the range of − 1.2 ≤ M _L ≤ 2.7. The small-aperture seismic array substantially lowers the detection threshold to about M _c = − 0.4, when compared to the regional networks operating in West Bohemia (M _c > 0.0). In the course of this work, the main temporal features (frequency–magnitude distribution, propagation of back azimuth and horizontal slowness, occurrence rate of aftershock sequences and interevent-time distribution) of the recent 2008/2009 earthquake swarm are presented and discussed. Temporal changes of the coefficient of variation (based on interevent times) suggest that the swarm earthquake activity of the 2008/2009 swarm terminates by 12 January 2009. During the main phase in our studied swarm period after 19 October, the b value of the Gutenberg–Richter relation decreases from 1.2 to 0.8. This trend is also reflected in the power-law behavior of the seismic moment release. The corresponding total seismic moment release of 1.02×10¹⁷ Nm is equivalent to M _L,max = 5.4.     

Regional coda magnitudes of underground nuclear explosions

The concept of determining magnitudes, M_τ, of regional events (Δ < 1000 km) by means of coda-duration measurements is re-examined by using short-period vertical-component seismograms from Nevada Test Site explosions. The duration is specified as the time interval between the expected arrival of the S-wave and the time when coda waves fall and stay below 80 μm peak-to-peak ground displacement. The suggested procedure requires that for M_τ = 4.0 the coda duration at a distance of 100 km is 120 s. The adaptivity of the method is examined in terms of the single-station magnitude scatter, and with respect to the potential accuracy of the yield estimation of the explosions.The derived magnitude formula for underground nuclear explosions in granite is of the form: M_τ =0.18+0.001Δ+1.79 log τ+C_s, where C_s is a station correction coefficient for non-WWNSS stations.     

The instability of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>L</Subscript> comparison for earthquakes in Greece for the period 1969 to 2007

We use 576 earthquakes of magnitude, M _w, 3.3 to 6.8 that occurred within the region 33° N–42.5° N, 19° E–30° E in the time period 1969 to 2007 to investigate the stability of the relation between moment magnitude, M _w, and local magnitude, M _L, for earthquakes in Greece and the surrounding regions. We compare M _w to M _L as reported in the monthly bulletins of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) and to M _L as reported in the bulletins of the Seismological Station of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. All earthquakes have been analyzed through regional or teleseismic waveform inversion, to obtain M _w, and have measured maximum trace amplitudes on the Wood–Anderson seismograph in Athens, which has been in operation since 1964. We show that the Athens Wood–Anderson seismograph performance has changed through time, affecting the computed by NOA M _L by at least 0.1 magnitude units. Specifically, since the beginning of 1996, its east–west component has been recording systematically much larger amplitudes compared to the north–south component. From the comparison between M _w and M _L reported by Thessaloniki, we also show that the performance of the sensors has changed several times through time, affecting the calculated M _L’s. We propose scaling relations to convert the M _L values reported from the two centers to M _w. The procedures followed here can be applied to other regions as well to examine the stability of magnitude calculations through time.     

Determining the time and space domains for estimating b value in seismic zoning

To take the seismic zone that includes the great shock with M _s≥8.2 as the statistical unit of estimating b value can often lead to more large variance, because the seismogenic zone of the great shock with M _s≥8.2 are larger than that delineated in general seismic zone. Two-level statistical units are considered in this paper. The seismic province is the first level unit that is suitable for group of earthquakes including the great shock of M _s≥8.5. A seismic province can be divided into several seismic zones. They can be taken as the second level unit for group of quakes in which the super magnitude of the greatest shock do not exceed 8. Because of the nonstationarity in time of seismic activity, the unbalancedness of data and differential of seismic temporal series feature in different areas need to be considered when we select the time period for estimating b value. According to local conditions, the time period is selected at one’s discretion in order to reflect seismicity level of this statistical unit in future 100 years. Contribution No. 98A02039, Institute of Geophysics, China Seismological Bureau, China.     

Evaluation of seismicity and seismic hazard parameters in Turkey and surrounding area using a new approach to the Gutenberg–Richter relation

In this study, the spatial distributions of seismicity and seismic hazard were assessed for Turkey and its surrounding area. For this purpose, earthquakes that occurred between 1964 and 2004 with magnitudes of M ≥ 4 were used in the region (30–42°N and 20–45°E). For the estimation of seismicity parameters and its mapping, Turkey and surrounding area are divided into 1,275 circular subregions. The b-value from the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is calculated by the classic way and the new alternative method both using the least-squares approach. The a-value in the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude distributions is taken as a constant value in the new alternative method. The b-values calculated by the new method were mapped. These results obtained from both methods are compared. The b-value shows different distributions along Turkey for both techniques. The b-values map prepared with new technique presents a better consistency with regional tectonics, earthquake activities, and epicenter distributions. Finally, the return period and occurrence hazard probability of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes in 75 years were calculated by using the Poisson model for both techniques. The return period and occurrence hazard probability maps determined from both techniques showed a better consistency with each other. Moreover, maps of the occurrence hazard probability and return period showed better consistency with the b-parameter seismicity maps calculated from the new method. The occurrence hazard probability and return period of M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes were calculated as 90–99% and 5–10 years, respectively, from the Poisson model in the western part of the studying region.