Spectral classification methods in monitoring small local events by the Israel seismic network

We use the dense Israel Seismic Network (ISN) to discriminate between low magnitude earthquakes and explosions in the Middle East region. This issue is important for CTBT monitoring, especially when considering small nuclear tests which may be conducted under evasive conditions. We explore the performance of efficient discriminants based on spectral features of seismograms using waveforms of 50 earthquakes and 114 quarry and underwater blasts with magnitudes 1.0–2.8, recorded by ISN short-period stations at distances up to 200 km. The single-station spectral ratio of the low and high-frequency seismic energy shows an overlap between explosions and earthquakes. After averaging over a subnet of stations, the resolving power is enhanced and the two classes of events are separated. Different frequency bands were tested; the (1–3 Hz)/(6–8 Hz) ratio provided the best discriminant performance. We also estimated normalized r.m.s. spectral amplitudes in several sequential equal frequency windows within the 1–12 Hz band and applied multiparametric automatic classification procedures (Linear Discrimination Function and Artificial Neural Network) to the amplitudes averaged over a subnetwork. A leave-one-out test showed a low rate of error for the multiparametric procedures. An innovative multi-station discriminant is proposed, based on spectral modulation associated with ripple-firing in quarry blasts and with the bubbling effect in underwater explosions. It utilizes a distinct azimuth-invariant coherency of spectral shapes for different stations in the frequency range (1–12 Hz). The coherency is measured by semblance statistics commonly used in seismic prospecting for phase correlation in the time domain. After modification, the statistics applied to the network spectra provided event separation. A new feature of all the above mentioned procedures is that they are based on smoothed (0.5 Hz window), instrument-corrected FFT spectra of the whole signal; they are robust to the accuracy of onset time estimation and, thus well suited to automatic event identification.     

The resilience of annual vegetation primary production subjected to different climate change scenarios

We examined if climate change in two dry ecosystems—Mediterranean (DME) and Semiarid (SAE)—would cause substantial reduction in the production of annual vegetation. Field measurements and computer simulations were used to examine the following six climate change scenarios: (1) rainfall amount reduction; (2) increases of 10 % in annual evaporation rate and 5 % in annual temperature; (3) increase in magnitude of rainfall events, accompanied by reductions in frequency and seasonal variation; (4) postponement of the beginning of the first rainfall event of the growing season; (5) long dry spells during the growing season; and (6) early ending of the growing season. The results revealed the following outcomes. a) Reduction by 5–35 % in annual rainfall amount did not significantly affect productivity in the DME, but a large (25–35 %) decrease in rainfall would change vegetation productivity in the SAE and lead to a patchier environment. b) Similar results were observed: when temperature and evaporation rate were increased; when the magnitude of rainfall events increased but their frequency decreased; and during a long mid-season dry spell. c) In both ecosystems, changes in the temporal distribution of rainfall, especially at the beginning of the season, caused the largest reduction in productivity, accompanied by increased patchiness. d) Long-term data gathered during the last three decades indicated that both environments exhibited high resilience of productivity under rainfall variability. These results imply that the response of dry ecosystems to climate change is not characterized by a dramatic decrease in productivity. Moreover, these ecosystems are more resilient than expected, and their herbaceous productivity might undergo drastic changes only under more severe scenarios than those currently predicted in the literature.     

The Centurion 18 telescope of the Wise Observatory

We describe the second telescope of the Wise Observatory, a 0.46-m Centurion 18 (C18) installed in 2005, which enhances significantly the observing possibilities. The telescope operates from a small dome and is equipped with a large-format CCD camera. In the last two years this telescope was intensively used in a variety of monitoring projects. The operation of the C18 is now automatic, requiring only start-up at the beginning of a night and close-down at dawn. The observations are mostly performed remotely from the Tel Aviv campus or even from the observer’s home. The entire facility was erected for a component cost of about 70k$ and a labor investment of a total of one man-year. We describe three types of projects undertaken with this new facility: the measurement of asteroid light variability with the purpose of determining physical parameters and binarity, the following-up of transiting extrasolar planets, and the study of AGN variability. The successful implementation of the C18 demonstrates the viability of small telescopes in an age of huge light-collectors, provided the operation of such facilities is very efficient.     

Observable consequences of planet formation models in systems with close-in terrestrial planets

To date, two planetary systems have been discovered with close-in, terrestrial-mass planets     . Many more such discoveries are anticipated in the coming years with radial velocity and transit searches. Here we investigate the different mechanisms that could form 'hot Earths' and their observable predictions. Models include: (1) in situ accretion; (2) formation at larger orbital distance followed by inward 'type 1' migration; (3) formation from material being 'shepherded' inward by a migrating gas giant planet; (4) formation from material being shepherded by moving secular resonances during dispersal of the protoplanetary disc; (5) tidal circularization of eccentric terrestrial planets with close-in perihelion distances and (6) photoevaporative mass-loss of a close-in giant planet. Models 1–4 have been validated in previous work. We show that tidal circularization can form hot Earths, but only for relatively massive planets     with very close-in perihelion distances (≲0.025 au), and even then the net inward movement in orbital distance is at most only 0.1–0.15 au. For planets of less than     , photoevaporation can remove the planet's envelope and leave behind the solid core on a Gyr time-scale, but only for planets inside 0.025–0.05 au. Using two quantities that are observable by current and upcoming missions, we show that these models each produce unique signatures, and can be observationally distinguished. These observables are the planetary system architecture (detectable with radial velocities, transits and transit timing) and the bulk composition of transiting close-in terrestrial planets (measured by transits via the planet's radius).     

B and Li isotopes as intrinsic tracers for injection tests in aquifer storage and recovery systems

Boron and Li isotopes have been tested as environmental tracers of treated sewage injected into a sandy aquifer (Shafdan reclamation project, Israel). During a 38 days injection test in a newly dug injection well, a conservative artificial tracer (Br⁻) was monitored together with δ¹¹B and δ⁷Li in the injectate, in the unsaturated soil zone (porous cup) and an observation well in the aquifer. In spite of B and Li concentrations in the injectate close to background values, significant shifts of the isotope signatures could be observed over the duration of the injection test. Boron isotope ratios show a breakthrough curve delayed with respect to Br⁻ breakthrough due to some reversible sorption on the aquifer material. No isotope fractionation was observed in the unsaturated or the saturated zone so that B isotopes can be considered as conservative in the investigated part of the aquifer system. Lithium isotopes are strongly fractionated, probably due to sorption processes. Lithium concentrations point to a Li sink in the system, δ⁷Li values vary strongly with a tendency of ⁷Li depletion in the liquid phase over the duration of the experiment. This is opposite to the expected preferential sorption of ⁶Li onto clay minerals. Boron isotopes reveals a valuable tracer of artificial recharge of freshwaters derived from treated sewage, both for short term tracer tests and for long-term monitoring of artificial recharge, even if in aquifers with higher clay contents, sorption-linked isotope fractionation cannot be excluded. More data are needed on Li isotope fractionation in natural groundwater systems to assess the potential of this tracer as monitoring tool.     

Effect of excavation stages on stress and pore pressure changes for an underground nuclear repository

This paper provides a brief overview of evolution of deformations, stresses, and pore pressures due to different excavation stages during construction of an URL. Excavation of a rockmass develops damage zone of finite width around the excavated zone which is associated with changes in permeability and affect the fluid flow mechanism. In this study, a coupled hydromechanical (HM) analysis for a water saturated porous rock mass has been done which is caused by sequential excavation and backfill of vertical disposal pit of an URL. For this purpose, an Atomic Energy of Canada Limited’s in-floor concept for a deep geologic repository suitable for Indian condition has been used. Changes in rock deformations, stresses, strains and mechanically induced pore pressure in an undrained condition, during excavation, as well as those caused by mechanically induced rock deformations after backfill of the disposal pit have been modeled. A three-dimensional finite difference tool FLAC^3D (Itasca Consulting Group Inc. FLAC-3D 1997) has been used for the analysis.     

A Method of Positional Quality Control Testing for 2D and 3D Line Strings

This article presents a positional quality acceptance control method for 2D and 3D line strings based on a statistical hypothesis test. Two statistical models are applied together: a Binomial Model is applied over a Base Model. By means of the Base Model the method can be applied to any parametric or non‐parametric error model. The Base Model represents the hypothesis about the error behavior. The Binomial Model is fixed and consists of counting the number F of fail events in a sample of a determined size. The π parameter of the Binomial Model is derived from the Base Model by means of a desired tolerance. By comparing the probabilities associated to F and π a statistical acceptance/rejection decision is achieved. This method allows us to know and control the user's and producer's risk of acceptance/rejection. An example using a 2D line string data set from a commercial product is presented. The extension of the method to the 3D line string case is also presented. In order to facilitate the application of the method, some tables linking π with F and the control sample sizes are presented.     

A hybrid genetic—instance based learning algorithm for CE-QUAL-W2 calibration

This paper presents a calibration model for CE-QUAL-W2. CE-QUAL-W2 is a two-dimensional (2D) longitudinal/vertical hydrodynamic and water quality model for surface water bodies, modeling eutrophication processes such as temperature–nutrient–algae–dissolved oxygen–organic matter and sediment relationships. The proposed methodology is a combination of a ‘hurdle-race’ and a hybrid Genetic-k-Nearest Neighbor algorithm (GA-kNN). The ‘hurdle race’ is formulated for accepting–rejecting a proposed set of parameters during a CE-QUAL-W2 simulation; the k-Nearest Neighbor algorithm (kNN)—for approximating the objective function response surface; and the Genetic Algorithm (GA)—for linking both. The proposed methodology overcomes the high, non-applicable, computational efforts required if a conventional calibration search technique was used, while retaining the quality of the final calibration results. Base runs and sensitivity analysis are demonstrated on two example applications: a synthetic hypothetical example calibrated for temperature, serving for tuning the GA-kNN parameters; and the Lower Columbia Slough case study in Oregon US calibrated for temperature and dissolved oxygen. The GA-kNN algorithm was found to be robust and reliable, producing similar results to those of a pure GA, while reducing running times and computational efforts significantly, and adding additional insights and flexibilities to the calibration process.     

Empirical site response evaluations: case studies in Israel

A closed-loop, time-efficient technique for site effect evaluation for seismic microzonation in urban areas is developed and implemented. It includes the following successive steps: microtremor measurements using a triangular array of three-component seismometers; estimation of the Nakamura horizontal-vertical spectral ratio, calculation of Rayleigh wave dispersion using the Aki spatial correlation method; inversion of the dispersion curve to determine a shear wave velocity model of the shallow subsurface; analytical computation of Rayleigh wave spectral ellipticity and 1-D SH transfer function for this model; and a comparison of empirical and analytical ratios and correction of the model if required. The technique has been tested at several locations in a number of towns near the active Jordan Rift valley. A reasonable agreement is obtained when comparing empirical spectral ratios and analytical transfer functions.     

Erroneous interpretation of historical documents related to the epicenter of the 1927 Jericho earthquake in the Holy Land

The 1927 earthquake was the strongestseismic event (M = 6.2) of the 20th centuryin the Holy Land and the first significantone in the region to be recorded worldwideby seismometers. By quoting theseismological station in Ksara, the ISSlocated the epicenter 40 km north of theDead Sea. This location, which wassupported by secondary and tertiarymacroseismic `evidence' and became one ofthe most accepted `facts', was neverquestioned nor reevaluated.We show how an initial mistaken earthquakelocation, supported by questionableevidence, struck roots and eventually becamean accepted fact. This typical `chain oferrors' may serve as a warning regardingtreatment of historical macroseismicsources, as well as historical microseismicdocuments. The conclusions drawn from thisstudy, while focusing on historicaldocumentation, fit well the new epicenterof the 1927 earthquake, recalculated in ourformer study.