海洋环境监测标准实施水平评价

海洋环境监测标准是指导我国海洋环境监测工作的技术依据,其使用规范了海洋环境监测业务工作的运行,提高了日常监测工作效率,保证了监测数据的质量,这类标准的实施对海洋环境保护发挥着重要的作用。在标准发布实施后,及时掌握标准的使用信息并对实施情况做出科学评估是海洋标准化管理部门的工作内容之一。针对海洋环境监测标准实施水平这一评估目标,使用层次分析法建立标准评价模型,构造各评价因素的重要性判断矩阵,确定各评价因素的权重,对调查获取的数据进行处理和计算,得出36项海洋环境监测标准的综合评价分值。根据分值特点,建立五级评价等级,对各项标准进行分级评价,得到标准实施水平呈明显分化格局的结果,最后对这一结果进行分析,并就如何提高标准的实施水平进行讨论。     

基于可拓学的有居民海岛开发利用等级评价

利用多指标可拓综合评价方法,分析有居民海岛开发利用等级的各种影响因素,建立有居民海岛开发利用等级综合评价的物元模型,通过计算其关联度,得到定量的数值评定结果。以浙江省台州市4个有居民海岛作为实例进行验证,结果表明运用该方法评价有居民海岛开发利用等级较为客观,具有合理性,可作为有居民海岛开发利用等级的评价模型之一进行推广运用。     

连云港海底航道安全海洋环境综合评价

海底航道安全与海洋环境相关,随着海洋调查观测技术的进步,航道观测信息增多,有些信息往往难以定量,如何利用这些资料评估海底航道安全日益重要。本研究在综合分析连云港海底航道安全海洋环境主要影响因素的基础上,基于航道地形环境、航道地质环境、海洋动力环境、极端事件对航道安全的影响程度,建立了连云港海底航道安全海洋环境模糊综合评价模型,运用模糊综合评价法对航道安全海洋环境进行了定量评估,依据评价结果,连云港海底航道安全海洋环境定量评价为2.63,等级介于比较安全与一般危险之间,对航道海洋环境立体监测与安全评价体系建设具有实践意义。     

青岛地区风暴潮灾害易损性风险区划建模

风暴潮灾害风险是由风暴潮危险性、承灾体脆弱性、暴露性和防潮减灾能力决定的,其中承灾体脆弱性、暴露性和防潮减灾能力构成了风暴潮灾害的易损性.结合目前国内对风暴潮灾害危险性研究较为深入,而对易损性研究欠缺的现状,以青岛沿海风暴潮为例,建立了风暴潮灾害易损性风险区划模型.模型首先通过风险因子识别建立了风险评价指标体系,然后采用聚类分析将研究区域进行综合分类,再用熵值法、灰色关联分析及模糊综合评价法分别对各地区潮灾风险进行量化,最后应用熵值—灰色—模糊组合方法从主客观角度定性定量进行综合风险区划排名,将青岛九区市划分为4个不同风险等级,揭示了青岛近海地区风暴潮灾害风险的地域差异性,为因地制宜地制定防灾减灾措施与规划提供了科学依据.     

河北省海啸灾害风险评估和区划研究

基于康奈尔多电网耦合海啸模型（COMCOT）数值模式建立研究区海啸数值模型,利用模型对6个地震海啸源情景场进行模拟计算,通过对各海啸源下数值模拟结果的综合分析,确定研究区海啸灾害危险性分布;根据土地利用类型数据资料确定研究区承灾体脆弱性分布;通过危险性、脆弱性评估成果,综合确定研究区海啸灾害风险性评估和区划成果。结果表明：河北省遭受海啸灾害风险最高等级为Ⅱ级,主要分布在唐山市和秦皇岛市沿海区域;沧州市沿海区域海啸灾害风险等级较小,为Ⅲ级和Ⅳ级。     

海洋风能开发利用潜在环境影响模糊综合评价

运用模糊数学方法对海洋风能开发利用的潜在环境影响进行综合评价,旨在为海洋风能发电环境影响综合评价提供一种切实可行的方法.通过建立综合评价指标体系,确定专家评分表,确定各层次因素的权重,经过模糊评价,得到海洋风能开发利用的潜在环境影响评价等级的隶属度.评价等级隶属度的大小反映了潜在环境影响的程度,其结果可以为海洋风能电站的站址选择和电站建设提供可行性分析.     

利用后向预报方法分析印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估模型

当前,对渔业资源评估模型的诊断与选择,主要依赖于模型对观察数据的拟合度,很少评价模型的预测能力、并将其作为评价渔业资源评估与管理质量的依据。为此,本文利用后向预报方法评价了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacores)资源评估模型的预测能力,并在此基础上分析了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源评估与管理质量。研究表明,在利用贝叶斯剩余产量模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼进行资源评估时,存在如下问题:(1)拟合较好的模型其预测能力较差;(2)利用不同时段数据拟合模型时,采用DIC(Deviance Information Criterion)选择的最佳模型缺少稳定性;(3)不同模型估计的TAC (Total Allowable Catch)存在较大差异。据此可以判断,利用贝叶斯剩余产量模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼进行资源评估与管理效果较差。本研究结果表明:(1)利用后向预报方法可评价模型的预测能力、DIC选择模型的稳定性,从而能在一定程度上判断模型模拟的种群演化动态是否正确、资源评估结果是否存在问题;(2)利用后向预报方法可揭示评估结果的不确定性及其可能引起的渔业管理风险,从而有利于避免渔业管理风险、实现渔业管理目标。     

海洋环境污染实物量损失的模糊测定——以渤海为例

借鉴模糊数学中的模糊综合评价法,选择有代表性的污染物指标建立模糊综合评价指标体系,评价渤海环境污染的致害等级;根据已有的渤海环境污染程度与海洋物产损失间的对应关系,对每一损失等级赋予一定的实物量损失率,据此得出综合的渤海环境污染的实物型损失模型,为渤海环境污染的治理提供科学依据.     

模糊层次分析法在浅剖数据质量评价中的应用

为解决浅剖数据质量评价指标不一、定量化不足的问题,本文基于层次分析法的原理,结合德尔菲法及模糊评价方法,建立了浅剖质量评价的模糊层次分析技术流程,构建了多层次的浅剖质量评价模型,确定了3个一级指标和14个二级指标,给出了各指标在质量评价中的定量权重,定出了4个质量评价等级。文章应用评价模型对深海及浅海两套浅剖数据集进行了评价,根据评价结果及最大隶属度原则,深海浅剖数据总体质量为中等,浅海浅剖数据总体质量为良好。结果显示,该模型可以有效地将专家主观经验以知识驱动的形式转成定量化评价指标,给出的评价结果客观、可量化,减少了数据质量评价过程中人为主观因素影响和片面性,可为数据进一步应用提供较为准确的应用等级建议。     

BP网络海上石油平台溢油污染等级评估方法

通过分析与溢油污染程度有关的影响因素,首次构建了海上石油平台溢油污染程度评价指标体系.针对模型无样本的难题,对评价指标进行分级,利用Rand函数在各分级标准内随机生成足够数量的训练和测试样本,建立了较合理的网络结构,构建了石油平台溢油污染等级BP网络模型.研究结果表明BP网络模型具有很强的泛化能力,能够用于评判未知样本...     

Information structuring and risk-based inspection for the marine oil pipelines

The proposed work is incorporated into the research theme concerning the maintenance and inspection of sensitive facilities in production systems. It is essential to promote the methodological deployment of inspection techniques to ensure the good functioning of services provided by complex production systems as well as their different components. We use a risk-based inspection methodology offering an organized analysis with knowledge sharing for collaborative possibilities in a multidisciplinary context and it consists of the following steps: data acquisition and information collection, failure analysis (probability and consequences), risk assessment, inspection plan, mitigation and revaluation. The application of this methodology can improve the maintenance management strategies of industrial companies. The inspection department is able to forecast its potential failure, root causes and impacts on the safe operation of the considered production system, based on a reliable inventory of existing situations and review options for continuous improvement in maintenance management. In particular, we addressed the application of a Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) methodology in the French petroleum company with operations on the west coast of central and southern Africa. The incorporation of expert knowledge into risk assessment is helping to find the best preventive plan for pipeline inspection in the case study.     

基于多态模糊贝叶斯网络的半潜平台安装风险分析

针对半潜式平台安装作业风险评估中存在的风险多态性和模糊性问题,构建了一种多态模糊贝叶斯网络风险分析模型。根据行业规范推荐标准定义语言性评价模糊集,描述根节点的事故状态发生概率,克服了传统方法中确定性概率难以获取的困难。利用相似性聚合法结合置信度指标融合专家意见,引入改进的去模糊化转换方法,提高了专家知识经验转化为定量数据的合理性和可靠性。基于贝叶斯网络的双向推理和敏感性分析技术,实现了工程作业全过程的风险评估。通过对陵水17-2项目半潜平台整体吊装过程进行风险分析,验证该模型的合理性与有效性,为半潜平台安装作业风险管理与防控策略制定提供指导。     

Monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas: A generic framework for implementation of ecosystem based marine management and its application

This study introduces a framework for the monitoring and evaluation of spatially managed areas (SMAs), which is currently being tested by nine European case studies. The framework provides guidance on the selection, mapping, and assessment of ecosystem components and human pressures, the evaluation of management effectiveness and potential adaptations to management. Moreover, it provides a structured approach with advice on spatially explicit tools for practical tasks like the assessment of cumulative impacts of human pressures or pressure-state relationships. The case studies revealed emerging challenges, such as the lack of operational objectives within SMAs, particularly for transnational cases, data access, and stakeholder involvement. Furthermore, the emerging challenges of integrating the framework assessment using scientific information with a structured governance research analysis based mainly on qualitative information are addressed. The lessons learned will provide a better insight into the full range of methods and approaches required to support the implementation of the ecosystem approach to marine spatial management in Europe and elsewhere.     

Research on extracting method of micro-scale remote sensing information combination and application in coastal zone

Due to the need of rapid and sustainable development in China’s coastal zones, the high-resolution information theory using data mining technology becomes an urgent research focus. However, the traditional pixel-based image analysis methods cannot meet the needs of this development trend. The paper attempts to present an information extraction approach in terms of image segmentation based on an object-oriented algorithm for high-resolution remote sensing images. An aim of the author’ research is to establis...     

Sea use management using a hybrid operational model: Taiwan’s experience

This study proposes a hybrid operational model to manage marine activities. This approach combines cost-benefit analysis (CBA), the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and the Dempster–Shafer theory (DST), and retains the advantages of CBA as well as facilitating the incorporation of incomplete information into the evaluation process. A particular advantage of this hybrid approach is that it can synthesize evaluation results into an easily understood unit: namely, utility. Conflicts between marine resource users (user–user conflicts) and between users and marine environment (user-environment conflicts) can easily be evaluated using this hybrid operational model. A sea use management system is proposed, which incorporates a permitting process and elements of marine spatial planning (MSP). In the proposed system, marine activities are grouped into three clusters based on their potential environmental impacts and exclusive use, then assigned to competent authorities, a panel of experts or government agencies for review and permit approval. This study suggests that the central and local governments share responsibility for approving permits for marine activities. More importantly, it suggests that the integration of marine activities needs to be handled by the central government. A numerical example is used to illustrate the application of the hybrid operational model.     

基于PSR模型的石化园区海洋环境影响后评估指标体系研究

我国将建成七大国家级石化产业园区,这些石化园区无一例外的位于沿海地区或海岛上,为此加强石化园区运营期海洋环境保护意义重大.环境影响后评估是运营期检验园区环境管理水平、查找园区环境问题的重要手段之一.目前,石化园区环境影响后评估主要以环境要素逐一分析法最为常见,而将石化园区作为一个整体从资源、环境、管理等角度综合评估的方法尚不多见.本研究在阐述我国海洋环境后评估和深入分析石化园区用海特点的基础上,结合PSR框架模型加以总结,提出了石化园区海洋环境影响后评估框架与指标体系,分为框架层、方案层和指标层,共25项考核指标,以期为今后沿海石化园区海洋环境管理研究提供思路.同时,本研究明确了各类评估指标赋值和权重等计算方案,并以大连某石化园区为案例进行了评估效果验证.     

Knowledge-based systems as decision support tools in an ecosystem approach to fisheries: Comparing a fuzzy-logic and a rule-based approach

In an ecosystem approach to fisheries (EAF), management must draw on information of widely different types, and information addressing various scales. Knowledge-based systems assist in the decision-making process by summarising this information in a logical, transparent and reproducible way. Both rule-based Boolean and fuzzy-logic models have been used successfully as knowledge-based decision support tools. This study compares two such systems relevant to fisheries management in an EAF developed for the southern Benguela. The first is a rule-based system for the prediction of anchovy recruitment and the second is a fuzzy-logic tool to monitor implementation of an EAF in the sardine fishery. We construct a fuzzy-logic counterpart to the rule-based model, and a rule-based counterpart to the fuzzy-logic model, compare their results, and include feedback from potential users of these two decision support tools in our evaluation of the two approaches. With respect to the model objectives, no method clearly outperformed the other. The advantages of numerically processing continuous variables, and interpreting the final output, as in fuzzy-logic models, can be weighed up against the advantages of using a few, qualitative, easy-to-understand categories as in rule-based models. The natural language used in rule-based implementations is easily understood by, and communicated among, users of these systems. Users unfamiliar with fuzzy-set theory must “trust” the logic of the model. Graphical visualization of intermediate and end results is an important advantage of any system. Applying the two approaches in parallel improved our understanding of the model as well as of the underlying problems. Even for complex problems, small knowledge-based systems such as the ones explored here are worth developing and using. Their strengths lie in (i) synthesis of the problem in a logical and transparent framework, (ii) helping scientists to deliberate how to apply their science to transdisciplinary issues that are not purely scientific, and (iii) representing vehicles for delivering state-of-the-art science to those who need to use it. Possible applications of this approach for ecosystems of the Humboldt Current are discussed.     

基于AHP方法与GIS技术的海底管道路由选择研究

海底管道路由选择与海底管道建设、运营以及后期管理等工作存在密切联系,对管道工程经济性、安全性和合理性有着重要意义.考虑影响海底管道路由选择的自然与社会环境因素,构建了量化的评价体系,以AHP层次分析方法作为数学依据确定评价权重,建立了标准化的路由选择评判模型.进一步,将该模型与GIS空间分析技术相结合,生成以地图可视化...     

上海市海洋经济可持续发展能力评价

为科学评价和促进区域海洋经济的可持续发展,文章构建相关评价指标体系,并对上海市进行实证分析。研究结果表明:区域海洋经济可持续发展能力评价指标体系包括海洋产业发展、海洋资源供给、海洋环境治理和海洋科技进步4个方面的17项评价指标;采用极差法对原始数据进行标准化处理,采用熵值法确定评价指标权重,并计算综合指数;上海市海洋经济可持续发展能力综合指数总体呈上升趋势,且由弱可持续发展阶段转为可持续发展阶段,其中海洋资源供给和海洋环境治理是直接影响因素。