Seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 6.9 Ilin-Tass earthquake in northeast Yakutia

The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (M_s = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (M_s = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (M_s = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (M_s = 6.9) earthquakes.     

Magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> in metropolitan France

The recent seismicity catalogue of metropolitan France Sismicité Instrumentale de l’Hexagone (SI-Hex) covers the period 1962–2009. It is the outcome of a multipartner project conducted between 2010 and 2013. In this catalogue, moment magnitudes (M _w) are mainly determined from short-period velocimetric records, the same records as those used by the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) for issuing local magnitudes (M _L) since 1962. Two distinct procedures are used, whether M _L-LDG is larger or smaller than 4. For M _L-LDG >4, M _w is computed by fitting the coda-wave amplitude on the raw records. Station corrections and regional properties of coda-wave attenuation are taken into account in the computations. For M _L-LDG ≤4, M _w is converted from M _L-LDG through linear regression rules. In the smallest magnitude range M _L-LDG <3.1, special attention is paid to the non-unity slope of the relation between the local magnitudes and M _w. All M _w determined during the SI-Hex project is calibrated according to reference M _w of recent events. As for some small events, no M _L-LDG has been determined; local magnitudes issued by other French networks or LDG duration magnitude (M _D) are first converted into M _L-LDG before applying the conversion rules. This paper shows how the different sources of information and the different magnitude ranges are combined in order to determine an unbiased set of M _w for the whole 38,027 events of the catalogue.     

A new <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ _c and P _d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M _s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 ^Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.     

Coseismic Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the 2017 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake,and its relationship with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

On August 8, 2017, a M7.0 earthquake occurred in Jiuzhaigou County, Sichuan Province, China, resulting in significant casualties and property damage. Therefore, it is critical to identify the areas of potential aftershocks before reconstruction and re-settling people to avoid future disasters. Based on the elastic dislocation theory and a multi-layered lithospheric model, we calculate the Coulomb failure stress changes caused by the Wenchuan and Jiuzhaigou earthquakes, discuss the relationship between the M_w7.9 Wenchuan and M7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquakes, and analyze the influence of the aftershock distribution and stress changes on the major faults in this region caused by the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The co- and post-seismic stress changes caused by the Wenchuan earthquake significantly increased the stress accumulation at the hypocenter of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Therefore, the occurrence of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake was probably stimulated by the Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock distribution is well explained by the co-seismic stress changes of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. The stress accumulation and corresponding seismic hazard on the Maqu-Heye segment of the East Kunlun fault and the northern extremity of the Huya fault has been further increased by the Jiuzhaigou earthquake.     

Seasonal variation of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> tide

The seasonal cycle of the main lunar tidal constituent M ₂ is studied globally by an analysis of a high-resolution ocean circulation and tide model (STORMTIDE) simulation, of 19 years of satellite altimeter data, and of multiyear tide-gauge records. The barotropic seasonal tidal variability is dominant in coastal and polar regions with relative changes of the tidal amplitude of 5–10 %. A comparison with the observations shows that the ocean circulation and tide model captures the seasonal pattern of the M ₂ tide reasonably well. There are two main processes leading to the seasonal variability in the barotropic tide: First, seasonal changes in stratification on the continental shelf affect the vertical profile of eddy viscosity and, in turn, the vertical current profile. Second, the frictional effect between sea-ice and the surface ocean layer leads to seasonally varying tidal transport. We estimate from the model simulation that the M ₂ tidal energy dissipation at the sea surface varies seasonally in the Arctic (ocean regions north of 60°N) between 2 and 34 GW, whereas in the Southern Ocean, it varies between 0.5 and 2 GW. The M ₂ internal tide is mainly affected by stratification, and the induced modified phase speed of the internal waves leads to amplitude differences in the surface tide signal of 0.005–0.0150 m. The seasonal signals of the M ₂ surface tide are large compared to the accuracy demands of satellite altimetry and gravity observations and emphasize the importance to consider seasonal tidal variability in the correction processes of satellite data.     

Gravity variation before Kunlun mountain pass western <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 earthquake

The relation between the gravity variation features and M _S=8.1 earthquake in Qinghai-Xizang monitoring area is analyzed preliminarily, by using spatial dynamic variation results of regional gravity field from absolute gravity and relative gravity observation in 1998 and 2000. The results show that: 1) M _S=8.1 earthquake in Kulun mountain pass western occurred in the gravity variation high gradient near gravity’s high negative variation; 2) The main tectonic deformation and energy accumulation before M _S=8.1 earthquake are distributed at south side of the epicenter; 3) The range of gravity’s high negative variation at east of the M _S=8.1 earthquake epicenter relatively coincides with that rupture region according to field geology investigation; 4) Gravity variation distribution in high negative value region is just consistent with the second shear strain’s high value region of strain field obtained from GPS observation.     

A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>c</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> wave attenuation of South African earthquakes

Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M _L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q _c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q ₀ and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q _c(f)?=?Q ₀ f ^α . The result was Q ₀?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t _s???t ₀) (time from origin time t ₀ to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t _s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q _c was not calculated. The derived Q _c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q _S was Q ₀?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q _c result.     

The December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra,Indonesia, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>=9.0, earthquake and the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation

Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M _W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M _W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes.     

Structural features and seismotectonic implications of coseismic surface ruptures produced by the 2016 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake

Field investigations and analyses of satellite images and aerial photographs reveal that the 2016 M _w 7.1 (Mj 7.3) Kumamoto earthquake produced a ～40-km surface rupture zone striking NE-SW on central Kyushu Island, Japan. Coseismic surface ruptures were characterized by shear faults, extensional cracks, and mole tracks, which mostly occurred along the pre-existing NE-SW-striking Hinagu–Futagawa fault zone in the southwest and central segments, and newly identified faults in the northeast segment. This study shows that (i) the Hinagu–Futagawa fault zone triggered the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake and controlled the spatial distribution of coseismic surface ruptures; (ii) the southwest and central segments were dominated by right-lateral strike-slip movement with a maximum in-site measured displacement of up to 2.5 m, accompanied by a minor vertical component. In contrast, the northeast segment was dominated by normal faulting with a maximum vertical offset of up to 1.75 m with a minor horizontal component that formed graben structures inside Aso caldera; (iii) coseismic rupturing initiated at the jog area between the Hinagu and Futagawa faults, then propagated northeastward into Aso caldera, where it terminated. The 2016 M _w 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake therefore offers a rare opportunity to study the relationships between coseismic rupture processes and pre-existing active faults, as well as the seismotectonics of Aso volcano.     

Moment tensor inversion and source rupture process of the September 27, 2003 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=7.9 earthquake occurred in the border area of China,Russia and Mongolia

We conducted moment tensor inversion and studied source rupture process for M _S=7.9 earthquake occurred in the border area of China, Russia and Mongolia on September 27 2003, by using digital teleseismic P-wave seismograms recorded by long-period seismograph stations of the global seismic network. Considering the aftershock distribution and the tectonic settings around the epicentral area, we propose that the M _S=7.9 earthquake occurred on a fault plane with the strike of 127°, the dip of 79° and the rake of 171°. The rupture process inversion result of M _S=7.9 earthquake shows that the total rupture duration is about 37 s, the scalar moment tensor is M ₀=0.97×10²⁰ N·m. Rupture mainly occurred on the shallow area with 110 km long and 30 km wide, the location in which the rupture initiated is not where the main rupture took place, and the area with slip greater than 0.5 m basically lies within 35 km deep middle-crust under the earth surface. The maximum static slip is 3.6 m. There are two distinct areas with slip larger than 2.0 m. We noticed that when the rupture propagated towards northwest and closed to the area around the M _S=7.3 hypocenter, the slip decreased rapidly, which may indicate that the rupture process was stopped by barriers. The consistence of spatial distribution of slip on the fault plane with the distribution of aftershocks also supports that the rupture is a heterogeneous process owing to the presence of barriers.     

Application of Fisher method to discriminating earthquakes and explosions using criterion <Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis><Subscript>b</Subscript>/<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>

We try to give a quantitative and global discrimination function by studying m _b/M _S data using Fisher method that is a kind of pattern recognition methods. The reliability of the function is also analyzed. The results show that this criterion works well and has a global feature, which can be used as first-level filtering criterions in event identification. The quantitative and linear discrimination function makes it possible to identify events automatically and achieve the goal to react the events quickly and effectively.     

A new technique for moment tensor inversion with applications to the 2008 Wenchuan <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>8.0 earthquake sequence

A M_S8.0 earthquake occurred in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, China, on May 12, 2008, and subsequently, numerous aftershocks followed. We obtained the moment tensor solutions and source time functions (STFs) for the Wenchuan earthquake and its seven larger aftershocks (M_S5.0～6.0) by a new technique of moment tensor inversion using the broadband and long-period seismic waveform data from the Global Seismic Network (GSN). Firstly, the theoretical background and technical flow of the new technique was briefly introduced, and an aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake sequence was employed to illustrate the real procedure for inverting the moment tensor; secondly, the moment tensor solutions and STFs of the eight events, including the main shock, were presented, and finally, the interpretation of the results was made. The agreement of our results with the GCMT results indicates the new approach is efficient and feasible. By using this approach, not only the moment tensor solution can be obtained but also the STF can be retrieved; the inverted STFs indicate that the source rupture process may be complicated even for the moderate earthquakes. The inverted focal mechanisms of the Wenchuan earthquake sequence show that the most of the aftershocks occurred in the main faults of the Longmenshan fault zone with predominantly thrustingwith minor right-lateral strike-slip component, but some of them may have occurred in the subfaults with strike-slip faulting in the vicinity of the main faults.     

Preliminary analysis on the source properties and seismogenic structure of the 2017 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake

At GMT time 13:19, August 8, 2017, an M_s7.0 earthquake struck the Jiuzhaigou region in Sichuan Province, China, causing severe damages and casualties. To investigate the source properties, seismogenic structures, and seismic hazards, we systematically analyzed the tectonic environment, crustal velocity structure in the source region, source parameters and rupture process, Coulomb failure stress changes, and 3-D features of the rupture plane of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake. Our results indicate the following: (1) The Jiuzhaigou earthquake occurred on an unmarked fault belonging to the transition zone of the east Kunlun fault system and is located northwest of the Huya fault. (2) Both the mainshock and aftershock rupture zones are located in a region where crustal seismic velocity changes dramatically. Southeast to the source region, shear wave velocity at the middle to lower crust is significantly low, but it rapidly increases northeastward and lies close to the background velocity across the rupture fault. (3) The aftershock zone is narrow and distributes along the northwest-southeast trend, and most aftershocks occur within a depth range of 5–20 km. (4) The focal mechanism of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake indicates a left-lateral strike-slip fault, with strike, dip, and rake angles of 152°, 74° and 8°, respectively. The hypocenter depth measures 20 km, whereas the centroid depth is about 6 km. The co-seismic rupture mainly concentrates at depths of 3–13 km, with a moment magnitude (M_w) of 6.5. (5) The co-seismic rupture also strengthens the Coulomb failure stress at the two ends of the rupture fault and the east segment of the Tazang fault. Aftershocks relocation results together with geological surveys indicate that the causative fault is a near vertical fault with notable spatial variations: dip angle varies within 66°–89° from northwest to southeast and the average dip angle measures ~84°. The results of this work are of fundamental importance for further studies on the source characteristics, tectonic environment, and seismic hazard evaluation of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript>9 Tohoku earthquake in 2011 in Japan: precursors uncovered by natural time analysis

This paper reviews the precursory phenomena of the 2011 M _W9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan that emerge solely when we analyze the seismicity data in a new time domain termed natural time. If we do not consider this analysis, important precursory changes cannot be identified and hence are missed. Natural time analysis has the privilege that enables the introduction of an order parameter of seismicity. In this frame, we find that the fluctuations of this parameter exhibit an unprecedented characteristic change, i.e., an evident minimum, approximately two months before Tohoku earthquake, which strikingly is almost simultaneous with unique anomalous geomagnetic field variations recorded mainly on the z component. This is consistent with our finding that such a characteristic change in seismicity appears when a seismic electric signal (SES) activity of the VAN method (from the initials of Varotsos, Alexopoulos, Nomicos) initiates, and provides a direct confirmation of the physical interconnection between SES and seismicity.     

3D <Emphasis Type="Italic">v</Emphasis><Subscript>P</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">v</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> models of southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau from joint inversion of body-wave arrival times and surface-wave dispersion data

A new 3D velocity model of the crust and upper mantle in the southeastern (SE) margin of the Tibetan plateau was obtained by joint inversion of body- and surface-wave data. For the body-wave data, we used 7190 events recorded by 102 stations in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The surface-wave data consist of Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion curves obtained from ambient noise cross-correlation analysis recorded by a dense array in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The joint inversion clearly improves the v _S model because it is constrained by both data types. The results show that at around 10 km depth there are two low-velocity anomalies embedded within three high-velocity bodies along the Longmenshan fault system. These high-velocity bodies correspond well with the Precambrian massifs, and the two located to the northeast of 2013 M _S 7.0 Lushan earthquake are associated with high fault slip areas during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock gap between 2013 Lushan earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with low-velocity anomalies, which also acts as a barrier zone for ruptures of two earthquakes. Generally large earthquakes (M ≥ 5) in the region occurring from 2008 to 2015 are located around the high-velocity zones, indicating that they may act as asperities for these large earthquakes. Joint inversion results also clearly show that there exist low-velocity or weak zones in the mid-lower crust, which are not evenly distributed beneath the SE margin of Tibetan plateau.     

Detecting changes in long-period site responses after the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake,Taiwan, using strong motion records

Temporal changes in site effects are obtained using the HVSR(horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio) method and strong motion records after the M w 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan. Seismic data recorded between 1995 and 2010 are used, comprising 3,708 data from 15 stations adjacent to the Chelungpu fault. Temporal fl uctuations are determined by analyzing the site effect variation using a time–frequency variation(TFV) diagram based on these seismic data. Stations adjacent to the fault show signifi cant disturbances in the resonance frequency at 16–26 Hz. Station TCU129 shows a 40% drop in fundamental frequency after the main shock, and a gradual return to the original state over nine years. For stations located farther from the fault zone, sudden changes in tectonic stress play a dominant role in temporal changes to the HVSR. An impact analysis of the directional factor confi rms our fi nding that the proximity of the fault to seismic stations has the most infl uence on data.     

Changes in source parameters of foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2001 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=6.0 Yajiang,Sichuan, earthquake

In this paper changes in focal mechanisms, parameters of wave spectra, and stress drops for the M _S=5.0 foreshock and M _S=6.0 mainshock in February 2001 in Yajiang County, Sichuan, and seismicity in epicentral region are studied. Comparison of focal mechanisms for the Yajiang earthquakes with distribution patterns of aftershocks, the nodal plane I, striking in the direction of NEN, of the Yajiang M=5.0 event is chosen as the faulting plane; the nodal plane II, striking in the direction of WNW, of the M=6.0 event as the faulting plane. The strikes of the two faulting planes are nearly perpendicular to each other. The level of stress drops in the epicentral region before the occurrence of the M=6.0 earthquake increases, which is consistent with increase of seismicity in the epicentral region. The rate decay of the Yajiang earthquake sequence, changes in wave spectra for foreshocks and aftershocks, and focal mechanisms are complex.     

A discussion on corioli force effect and aftershock activity tendency of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>=8.1 Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake on Nov. 14, 2001

Following the theory and definition of the Corioli force in physics, the Corioli force at the site of the M=8.1 Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake on November 14, 2001, is examined in this paper on the basis of a statistical research on relationship between the Corioli force effect and the maximum aftershock magnitude of 20 earthquakes with M≥7.5 in Chinese mainland, and then the variation tendency of aftershock activity of the M=8.1 earthquake is discussed. The result shows: a) Analyzing the Corioli force effect is an effective method to predict maximum aftershock magnitude of large earthquakes in Chinese mainland. For the sinistral slip fault and the reverse fault with its hanging wall moving toward the right side of the cross-focus meridian plane, their Corioli force pulls the two fault walls apart, decreasing frictional resistance on fault plane during the fault movement and releasing elastic energy of the mainshock fully, so the maximum magnitude of aftershocks would be low. For the dextral slip fault, its Corioli force presses the two walls against each other and increases the frictional resistance on fault plane, prohibiting energy release of the mainshock, so the maximum magnitude of aftershocks would be high. b) The fault of the M=8.1 Kunlun Mountain earthquake on Nov. 14, 2001 is essentially a sinistral strike-slip fault, and the Corioli force pulled the two fault walls apart. Magnitude of the induced stress is about 0.06 MPa. After a comparison analysis, we suggest that the aftershock activity level will not be high in the late period of this earthquake sequence, and the maximum magnitude of the whole aftershocks sequence is estimated to be about 6.0.