近十年北京气溶胶光学特性及直接辐射强迫研究

利用SBDART（Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer）辐射传输模式,结合AERONET（Aerosol Robotic Network）北京站观测的气溶胶光学特性数据,评估北京地区近十年气溶胶以及黑碳气溶胶的辐射强迫,主要研究结果如下:北京近十年气溶胶平均光学厚度（aerosol optical depth, AOD_440nm）为0.61±0.56,?ngstr?m波长指数均值为1.09,单次散射反照率（single scattering albedo, SSA_440nm）的均值为0.888±0.045;AOD呈现下降趋势,SSA呈上升趋势,表明该区域气溶胶污染有所改善。晴空条件下,大气层顶、地面和大气的气溶胶直接辐射强迫多年均值分别为?24.91±19.80 W m?2、?65.52±43.78 W m?2、40.61±28.62 W m?2,即气溶胶对大气层顶和地表为冷却效应,对大气产生加热作用。气溶胶和黑碳气溶胶的直接辐射强迫绝对值的年际变化表现为微弱的下降趋势,季节变化特征为春夏季高,冬季低,这与AOD的变化规律一致。并且黑碳气溶胶的直接辐射强迫下降趋势与SSA的上升趋势呈现较好的反位相关系。     

中国大气气溶胶辐射特性参数的观测与研究进展

长期系统的气溶胶辐射特性观测资料是定量研究气溶胶辐射和气候效应的重要基础.本文综合介绍中国大气气溶胶辐射特性观测与研究现状和成果,重点包括以下内容:地面太阳光度计联网观测气溶胶光学厚度、单次散射反照率、尺度谱;从全波段太阳辐射反演气溶胶光学厚度、单次散射反照率;浊度计和黑碳仪测量地面气溶胶散射系数和吸收系数;地基/星载激光雷达观测气溶胶(后向散射系数)垂直分布;极轨/静止卫星遥感反演气溶胶光学特性.     

北京等7个气象台站太阳总辐射观测资料的准确度评估

基于地面太阳短波总辐射对气溶胶光学特性和地表反照率的敏感性, 该文提出了一个评估我国气象台站总辐射资料准确度的方法。该方法选用气溶胶光学厚度和太阳天顶角较小情形下的晴天辐射资料, 从太阳直射辐射反演气溶胶光学厚度, 用于计算宽带透过率, 再从该透过率和总辐射资料反演太阳常数E_{0, P}, 并采用E_{0, P}对世界辐射基准 (WRR) 的偏差表示总辐射资料的不确定性。模拟结果表明:气溶胶折射率虚部和大气柱水汽含量的输入误差是两个主要的评估不确定因子。用于准确度评估的资料越多, 越有利于平滑气溶胶、水汽含量等输入参数随机误差的效应, 评估结果越合理。应用这一方法, 该文评估了2000— 2004年我国沈阳、额济纳旗、北京、乌鲁木齐、格尔木、上海和广州7个气象台站总辐射资料的准确度。7个站共有1161个太阳常数反演值, 都满足太阳天顶角余弦 (μ₀) 大于0.7的条件。这些E_{0, P}值对WRR的最大偏差为7.33%, 97.78%的E_{0, P}值对WRR的偏差小于5%, 总平均E_{0, P}值对WRR偏差只有-1.15 %。依据这些结果, 当μ₀≥0.7时, 这些台站的晴天总辐射资料的不确定度估计为5%。     

利用水平面太阳直接辐射日曝辐量反演大气气溶胶光学厚度的方法研究

本文发展了一个从宽带水平面太阳直接辐射日曝辐量 (总辐射与散射辐射日曝辐量之差) 反演光谱大气气溶胶光学厚度的方法, 包括建立一个 “等效” 的瞬时太阳天顶角模型, 并提出了一个基于气溶胶标高的云影响甄别方法。对该反演方法的数值模拟和误差分析表明: “等效” 瞬时太阳天顶角模型的不稳定性引起的光学厚度反演误差平均为3.66％; 光学厚度日变化对一段较长时间的平均光学厚度的影响不显著; 订正造成的散射辐射误差≤20％时, 光学厚度平均偏差≤4％。通过与AERONET产品的比对验证表明: 本文发展的光学厚度反演方法和云影响甄别方法都是有效的; 晴空反演的0.75 μm光学厚度与AERONET的相关系数超过0.95, 平均误差约0.02; 云甄别方法计算的季节和年平均光学厚度与AERONET具有较好的一致性。     

从宽带太阳直接辐射小时或日曝辐量反演气溶胶光学厚度研究

从宽带的太阳直接辐射1天或1小时累计量(曝辐量)气象观测资料反演气溶胶光学厚度的一个有效方法是很有用的.作者把太阳曝辐量与"等效"的瞬时太阳直接辐射关联起来,建立了一个与曝辐量"等效"的瞬时太阳直接辐射的模式;应用该模式和一个"等效"波长模式,发展了一个从太阳直接曝辐量反演气溶胶光学厚度的方法.作者还从试验上比较分析了由某时刻的宽带太阳直接辐射、每小时或1天的太阳直接辐射曝辐量反演得到的气溶胶光学厚度以及由太阳光度计探测的气溶胶光学厚度.试验结果表明,由日太阳直接辐射曝辐量反演得到的气溶胶光学厚度可理解为辐射加权的日平均光学厚度.     

北京一次污染过程气溶胶光学特性及辐射效应

利用地面激光雷达、太阳光度计观测反演气溶胶光学特性参数,结合PM_2.5观测数据,分析了2018年1月25—28日北京一次完整污染过程中气溶胶光学特性变化。基于观测数据,利用短波辐射传输模式计算了不同程度污染日,晴空背景下气溶胶对辐射加热率的改变程度。结果表明:清洁日（25日）,PM_2.5日平均质量浓度为19.00 μg·m-3,440 nm气溶胶光学厚度为0.13,单次散射反照率为0.87,整层气溶胶消光系数低于0.10 km-1,短波辐射均为增温效应;污染期间（26—27日）,PM_2.5日平均质量浓度为83.21 μg·m-3,气溶胶光学厚度为2.48,气溶胶散射能力增强,单次散射反照率达到0.94,气溶胶主要消光层厚度提升至3.00 km高度,消光系数平均值为0.43 km-1,气溶胶在垂直方向的变化导致气溶胶中上层（1.50~3.00 km高度）加热作用强烈,短波辐射加热率平均值达到13.89 K·d-1,而低层（1.50 km高度以内）加热作用较弱,加热率平均值仅为0.99 K·d-1。气溶胶散射能力增强导致加热作用减弱,污染日加热率对于气溶胶散射能力变化更敏感。     

从太阳总辐射信息反演云光学厚度的理论研究

本文从理论上探讨了从全波段太阳总辐射信息反演云光学厚度的一个新方法，并分析了引起云光学厚度解的误差的主要因子。理论分析和数值试验表明，在大气满足水平均一的条件下，本方法的云光学厚度解的精度主要取决于气溶胶光学特性的确定误差，如果气溶胶光学厚度的误差在30%以内，或折射率虚部的误差在0.02以内，云光学厚度解的误差一般在15%以内。本文还发展了一个二层模式的半经验的δ-Eddington近似，其精度优于Eddington和δ-Eddington近似，而且无须知道云和气溶胶消光系数的垂直分布，适用于本反演算法。     

利用多角度POLDER偏振资料实现陆地上空大气气溶胶光学厚度和地表反照率的同时反演Ⅰ.理论与模拟

陆地上空标量辐射对地表反射率和大气气溶胶散射都具有很强的敏感性, 而偏振反射只对大气气溶胶敏感, 对地表不敏感.根据这个原理并结合POLDER (POLarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectance) 资料的特点, 作者提出综合利用标量辐射和偏振反射信息来实现陆地上空大气气溶胶和地表反照率的同时反演.首先, 利用多角度偏振辐射观测提取大气气溶胶光学参数, 再利用标量辐射测量对偏振反演结果作进一步筛选和订正, 同时获得地表反射率.数值模拟试验结果证明, 仅利用偏振信息只能获取大气气溶胶信息, 而且其结果误差较大, 特别是对于散射作用较强的短波长通道如670 nm误差更大, 但经过标量辐射订正后的结果得到明显改善, 气溶胶光学厚度和地表反射率与真实值之间相关系数都达到0.99以上.为提高查找表的计算效率, 提出并建立了反演方案所需要的半参数化数值表, 利用内插方法寻求气溶胶光学厚度和地表反射率的数值解的反演方法.     

南京北郊黑碳气溶胶的浓度观测及辐射强迫研究

利用2008年南京大学浦口校区气溶胶采样数据对碳气溶胶的浓度变化特征进行了分析,建立了由气溶胶光学参量计算模块(OPAC)和辐射传输模型(TUV)组成的箱模式,并结合实际观测资料,利用该模式对南京北郊黑碳气溶胶的光学厚度及辐射强迫进行了评估。结果表明:南京北郊黑碳气溶胶(BC)的年平均浓度为6.7±4.6μg/m3,有机碳气溶胶(OC)的年平均浓度为21.3±13.3μg/m3,有机碳与黑碳气溶胶浓度的平均比值为3.4。黒碳气溶胶浓度具有夏季低、冬春季高的特点。由箱模式计算得到的黒碳气溶胶的年均光学厚度为0.07,年均吸收系数为44 Mm–1。白天正午晴空条件下黑碳所造成的最大瞬时地面辐射强迫可达-22.9±14.3 W/m2,在大气层顶造成的最大瞬时辐射强迫为12.5±7.3 W/m2。     

利用多角度POLDER偏振资料实现陆地上空大气气溶胶光学厚度和地表反照率的同时反演 I. 理论与模拟

陆地上空标量辐射对地表反射率和大气气溶胶散射都具有很强的敏感性,而偏振反射只对大气气溶胶敏感,对地表不敏感。根据这个原理并结合POLDER(POLarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectance)资料的特点,作者提出综合利用标量辐射和偏振反射信息来实现陆地上空大气气溶胶和地表反照率的同时反演。首先,利用多角度偏振辐射观测提取大气气溶胶光学参数,再利用标量辐射测量对偏振反演结果作进一步筛选和订正,同时获得地表反射率。数值模拟试验结果证明,仅利用偏振信息只能获取大气气溶胶信息,而且其结果误差较大,特别是对于散射作用较强的短波长通道如670 nm误差更大,但经过标量辐射订正后的结果得到明显改善,气溶胶光学厚度和地表反射率与真实值之间相关系数都达到0.99以上。为提高查找表的计算效率,提出并建立了反演方案所需要的半参数化数值表,利用内插方法寻求气溶胶光学厚度和地表反射率的数值解的反演方法。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on