Mechanism of formation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis>-disturbances in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> region of the equatorial ionosphere

Using model simulations, the morphological picture (revealed earlier) of the disturbances in the F ₂ region of the equatorial ionosphere under quiet geomagnetic conditions (Q-disturbances) is interpreted. It is shown that the observed variations in the velocity of the vertical E × B plasma drift, related to the zonal E _y component of the electric field, are responsible for the formation of Q-disturbances. The plasma recombination at altitudes of the lower part of the F ₂ region and the dependence of the rate of this process on heliogeophysical conditions compose the mechanism of Q-disturbance formation at night. The daytime positive Q-disturbances are caused exclusively by a decrease in the upward E × B drift, and this type of disturbances could be related to the known phenomenon of counter electrojet. Possible causes of formation of the daytime negative Q-disturbances are discussed.     

Estimation of storm-time level of day-side wave geomagnetic activity using a new <Emphasis Type="Italic">ULF</Emphasis> index

The level of wave geomagnetic activity in the morning and daytime sectors of auroral latitudes during strong magnetic storms with Dst _min varying from ?100 to ?150 nT in 1995–2002 have been studied using a new ULF index of wave activity proposed in [Kozyreva et al., 2007]. It has been detected that daytime Pc5 pulsations (2–6 mHz) are most intense during the main phase of a magnetic storm rather than during the recovery phase as was considered previously. It has been indicated that morning geomagnetic pulsations during the substorm recovery phase mainly contribute to daytime wave activity. The appearance of individual intervals with the southward IMF B _z component during the magnetic storm recovery phase results in increases in the ULF index values.     

Studying the spread <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> effect before earthquakes

The observations of spread F during the nighttime hours (0000–0500 LT) have been statistically analyzed based on data of Tokyo, Akita, Wakkanai, and Yamagawa Japan vertical ionospheric sounding stations for the time intervals a month before and a month after an earthquake. The disturbances in the probability of spread F appearance before an earthquake are revealed against a background of the variations depending on season, solar activity cycle, geomagnetic and solar disturbances. The days with increased solar (Wolf number W > 100) and geomagnetic (ΣK > 30) activity are excluded from the analysis. The spread F effects are considered for more than a hundred earthquakes with magnitude M > 5 and epicenter depth h < 80 km at distances of R < 1000 km from epicenters to the vertical sounding station. An average decrease in the spread F occurrence probability one-two weeks before an earthquake has been revealed using the superposed epoch method (the probability was minimal approximately ten days before the event and then increased until the earthquake onset). Similar results are obtained for all four stations. The reliability of the effect has been estimated. The dependence of the detected effect on the magnitude and distance has been studied.     

Longitudinal effect in the dependence of the critical frequency of the midlatitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis> layer on solar activity

Variations in the critical frequency of the E layer, foE, measured at Boulder and Tashkent stations located at almost coinciding geographical latitudes but at strongly different geomagnetic latitudes are analyzed. The following conclusions are drawn. (a) Late in the fall and in the winter, the foE values at these stations are distinctly different at low solar activity. This difference decreases with increasing solar activity. In other words, the longitudinal effect in the foE dependence on solar activity is significant for these conditions. (b) This effect is almost absent in summer; i.e., the difference in foE dependence on solar activity at these stations is insignificant for the given season. It has been substantiated that the dependence of the nitric oxide concentration [NO] on geomagnetic latitude, season, and solar activity is one of the main causes of this longitudinal effect.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">R/S</Emphasis> analysis of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Dst</Emphasis> index

The paper addresses estimation of the Hurst exponent for time series of the hourly values of the Dst index for the period from 1957 to 2011. It is found that the Hurst exponent is 0.79–0.94 for yearly intervals and 0.8–1.0 for monthly intervals. Based on R/S graphs, the Dst cycles are identified; they range from 3–4 months to 2.2 years and from 8.5 to 22 years in length. It is shown that a Dst time series can be quite satisfactorily described by an α-stable Levy process.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>c</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> wave attenuation of South African earthquakes

Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M _L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q _c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q ₀ and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q _c(f)?=?Q ₀ f ^α . The result was Q ₀?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t _s???t ₀) (time from origin time t ₀ to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t _s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q _c was not calculated. The derived Q _c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q _S was Q ₀?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q _c result.     

Formation mechanisms of the midlatitudinal <Emphasis Type="Italic">NmF2</Emphasis> semiannual anomaly under daytime quiet geomagnetic conditions at low solar activity

The F-region peak electron densities NmF2 measured during daytime quiet geomagnetic conditions at low solar activity on January 22, 2008, April 8, 1997, July 12, 1986, and October 26, 1995, are compared. Ionospheric parameters are measured by the ionosonde and incoherent scatter radar at Millstone Hill and calculated with the use of a 1D nonstationary ionosphere–plasmasphere model of number densities and temperatures of electrons and ions at middle geomagnetic latitudes. The formation of the semiannual anomaly of the midlatitudinal NmF2 under daytime quiet geomagnetic conditions at low solar activity is studied. The study shows that the semiannual NmF2 anomaly occurs due to the total impact of three main causes: seasonal variations in the velocity of plasma drift along the geomagnetic field due to the corresponding variations in the components of the neutral wind velocity; seasonal variations in the composition and temperature of the neutral atmosphere; and the dependence of the solar zenith angle on a number of the day in the year at the same solar local time.     

A new <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ _c and P _d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M _s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 ^Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.     

Magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> in metropolitan France

The recent seismicity catalogue of metropolitan France Sismicité Instrumentale de l’Hexagone (SI-Hex) covers the period 1962–2009. It is the outcome of a multipartner project conducted between 2010 and 2013. In this catalogue, moment magnitudes (M _w) are mainly determined from short-period velocimetric records, the same records as those used by the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) for issuing local magnitudes (M _L) since 1962. Two distinct procedures are used, whether M _L-LDG is larger or smaller than 4. For M _L-LDG >4, M _w is computed by fitting the coda-wave amplitude on the raw records. Station corrections and regional properties of coda-wave attenuation are taken into account in the computations. For M _L-LDG ≤4, M _w is converted from M _L-LDG through linear regression rules. In the smallest magnitude range M _L-LDG <3.1, special attention is paid to the non-unity slope of the relation between the local magnitudes and M _w. All M _w determined during the SI-Hex project is calibrated according to reference M _w of recent events. As for some small events, no M _L-LDG has been determined; local magnitudes issued by other French networks or LDG duration magnitude (M _D) are first converted into M _L-LDG before applying the conversion rules. This paper shows how the different sources of information and the different magnitude ranges are combined in order to determine an unbiased set of M _w for the whole 38,027 events of the catalogue.     

Long-term changes in the relation between <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2

The change in the dependence of the F2-layer critical frequency on its height hmF2 is considered based on two sources of initial data used earlier by the authors. It is found that the slope k of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 systematically decreases from the earlier (“etalon”) period, 1958–1980, to the later periods of 1988–2010, 1998–2010, and 1998–2014. Since the foF2 value depends on the atomic oxygen concentration in the F region much more strongly than hmF2, the found decrease in k confirms the concept of a decrease in the atomic oxygen concentration in the thermosphere with time previously formulated by the authors.     

Attenuation coefficients of Rayleigh and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lg</Emphasis> waves

Analysis of the frequency dependence of the attenuation coefficient leads to significant changes in interpretation of seismic attenuation data. Here, several published surface-wave attenuation studies are revisited from a uniform viewpoint of the temporal attenuation coefficient, denoted by χ. Theoretically, χ( f) is expected to be linear in frequency, with a generally non-zero intercept γ?=?χ(0) related to the variations of geometrical spreading, and slope dχ/df = π/Q _e caused by the effective attenuation of the medium. This phenomenological model allows a simple classification of χ( f) dependences as combinations of linear segments within several frequency bands. Such linear patterns are indeed observed for Rayleigh waves at 500–100-s and 100–10-s periods, and also for Lg from ~2 s to ~1.5 Hz. The Lg χ( f) branch overlaps with similar linear branches of body, Pn, and coda waves, which were described earlier and extend to ~100 Hz. For surface waves shorter than ~100 s, γ values recorded in areas of stable and active tectonics are separated by the levels of \(\gamma _{D} \approx 0.2 \times 10^{-3}\) s^???1 (for Rayleigh waves) and 8 ×10^???3 s^???1 (for Lg). The recently recognized discrepancy between the values of Q measured from long-period surface waves and normal-mode oscillations could also be explained by a slight positive bias in the geometrical spreading of surface waves. Similarly to the apparent χ, the corresponding linear variation with frequency is inferred for the intrinsic attenuation coefficient, χ _i , which combines the effects of geometrical spreading and dissipation within the medium. Frequency-dependent rheological or scattering Q is not required for explaining any of the attenuation observations considered in this study. The often-interpreted increase of Q with frequency may be apparent and caused by using the Q-based model of attenuation and following preferred Q( f) dependences while ignoring the true χ( f) trends within the individual frequency bands.     

Relation of long-period variations in the critical frequencies of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> layer to geomagnetic activity

The relation of the long-period variations in the midnight and noon values of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer at three midlatitude stations (Irkutsk, Moscow, and Boulder) to the daily mean index of geomagnetic activity in years of different solar activity has been studied. It has been found that the correlation coefficients between the above parameters depend on time of day, season, and solar activity level. The correlation coefficients are higher at night than in the daytime, especially at low solar activity. The highest absolute values of the correlation coefficient most often appear during equinoxes: April–May and September–October. It has been shown that the variability of the critical frequencies of the midlatitude ionospheric F ₂ layer depends not only on geomagnetic activity but also (to a considerable degree) on the effect of the lower atmosphere.     

Winter anomaly of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis>-layer critical frequency in the nighttime auroral zone

Analysis of the annual variation of the E-layer critical frequency median foE in the nighttime (22?02 LT) auroral zone by the data of several stations of the Northern Hemisphere has shown the median maximum in winter and minimum in summer, even though the summer contribution of solar radiation to foE is greater. Thus, a new phenomenon was discovered—an foE median winter anomaly in the nighttime auroral zone. Its amplitude (ratio of winter to summer foE figures) can reach 10–15%; however, this anomaly was weakly expressed and statistically insignificant at particular stations located in the auroral zone. The winter anomaly is more distinct for foE _avr, the median of the E-layer critical frequency foE caused by the auroral source of atmospheric ionization, i.e., excluding the solar radiation contribution to foE. For foE _avr, the amplitude of the winter anomaly can reach 15–20%. Based on the qualitative analysis, it has been found that foE winter anomaly is stipulated by the winter/summer asymmetry of energy flow of accelerated electrons, which induce discrete aurorae in the nighttime auroral zone.     

Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

Seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 6.9 Ilin-Tass earthquake in northeast Yakutia

The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (M_s = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (M_s = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (M_s = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (M_s = 6.9) earthquakes.     

Anomalous variations in the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript>-layer structure at geomagnetic midlatitudes of the Southern and Northern hemispheres at the transition from summer to winter conditions under low solar activity

The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere and plasmasphere at low solar activity under quiet geomagnetic conditions on January 15–17, 1985, and July 10–13, 1986, over Millstone Hill station and Argentine Islands ionosonde, the locations of which are approximately magnetically conjugate, have been theoretically calculated. The detected correction of the model input parameters makes it possible to coordinate the measured and calculated anomalous variations in the electron density NmF2 at the height hmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer over Argentine Islands ionosonde as well as the calculated and measured values of NmF2 and electron temperature at the hmF2 height over Millstone Hill station. It has been shown that vibrationally excited N₂ and O₂ molecules almost do not influence the formation of the winter anomaly under the conditions of low solar activity. A difference between the influence of electronically excited O⁺ on N _e ions under winter and summer conditions forms not more than 11% of the N _e winter anomaly event in the F ₂ layer and topside ionosphere. The model without electronically excited O⁺ ions reduces the duration of the N _e winter anomaly event. It has been shown that the seasonal variations in the composition of the neutral atmosphere form mainly the NmF2 winter anomaly event over the Millstone Hill radar at low solar activity.     

Spatial and time variations in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 (night)/<Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 (day) ratio: Specification of some effects

A series of important aspects of the time and spatial variations in the critical frequency ratio fo(night)/fo(day) considered by one of the authors [Danilov, 2007, 2008] is specified. The list of the Eastern-Hemisphere stations, for which an analysis of the above indicated ratio was performed, is completed. The available stations of the Western Hemisphere are considered. It is shown that the character of the variations in the fo(night)/fo(day) ratio is independent of limitations imposed on the Ap index of magnetic activity for the analyzed days. The consideration of the long-term variations in geomagnetic activity using the annual mean value of the Ap index does not influence the principal conclusions of the study, although in some cases changes statistical characteristics of the obtained behavior of the fo(night)/fo(day) ratio after 1980. A comparison of the results, based on the interpretation of the trends of the fo(night)/fo(day) value with the changes in the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling from the 1980s to the 1990s obtained by the authors earlier, confirms the assumption that there occurs a systematic change in the zonal wind in the upper atmosphere.     

Differential physiological responses of the coastal cyanobacterium <Emphasis Type="Italic">Synechococcus</Emphasis> sp. PCC7002 to elevated <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis>CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> at lag,exponential, and stationary growth phases

We studied the effects of expected end-of-the-century pCO₂ (1000 ppm) on the photosynthetic performance of a coastal marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC7002 during the lag, exponential, and stationary growth phases. Elevated pCO₂ significantly stimulated growth, and enhanced the maximum cell density during the stationary phase. Under ambient pCO₂ conditions, the lag phase lasted for 6 days, while elevated pCO₂ shortened the lag phase to two days and extended the exponential phase by four days. The elevated pCO₂ increased photosynthesis levels during the lag and exponential phases, but reduced them during the stationary phase. Moreover, the elevated pCO₂ reduced the saturated growth light (Ik) and increased the light utilization efficiency (α) during the exponential and stationary phases, and elevated the phycobilisome:chlorophyll a (Chl a) ratio. Furthermore, the elevated pCO₂ reduced the particulate organic carbon (POC):Chl a and particulate organic nitrogen (PON):Chl a ratios during the lag and stationary phases, but enhanced them during the exponential phase. Overall, Synechococcus showed differential physiological responses to elevated pCO₂ during different growth phases, thus providing insight into previous studies that focused on only the exponential phase, which may have biased the results relative to the effects of elevated pCO₂ in ecology or aquaculture.     

Dynamics of the ionospheric electric currents and auroral luminosity boundaries during strong magnetic storms

The regularities in the southward drift of the ionospheric current centers and luminosity boundaries during strong magnetic storms of November 2003 and 2004 (with Dst ≈ ?400 and ?470 nT, respectively) are studied based on the global geomagnetic observations and TV measurements of auroras. It has been indicated that the eastward and westward electrojets in the dayside and nightside sectors simultaneously shift equatorward to minimal latitudes of Φ _min ^° ～53°–55°. It has been obtained that the Φ _min ^° latitude decreases with increasing negative values of Dst, IMF B _z component, and westward electric field strength in the solar wind. The dependence of the electrojet equatorward shift velocity (V _av) on the rate of IMF B _z variations (ΔB _z /Δt) has been determined. It is assumed that the electrojet dynamics along the meridian is caused by a change in the structure of the magnetosphere and electric fields in the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetosphere.