<Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>c</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> wave attenuation of South African earthquakes

Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M _L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q _c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q ₀ and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q _c(f)?=?Q ₀ f ^α . The result was Q ₀?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t _s???t ₀) (time from origin time t ₀ to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t _s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q _c was not calculated. The derived Q _c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q _S was Q ₀?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q _c result.     

A new <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ _c and P _d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M _s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 ^Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.     

Magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> in metropolitan France

The recent seismicity catalogue of metropolitan France Sismicité Instrumentale de l’Hexagone (SI-Hex) covers the period 1962–2009. It is the outcome of a multipartner project conducted between 2010 and 2013. In this catalogue, moment magnitudes (M _w) are mainly determined from short-period velocimetric records, the same records as those used by the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) for issuing local magnitudes (M _L) since 1962. Two distinct procedures are used, whether M _L-LDG is larger or smaller than 4. For M _L-LDG >4, M _w is computed by fitting the coda-wave amplitude on the raw records. Station corrections and regional properties of coda-wave attenuation are taken into account in the computations. For M _L-LDG ≤4, M _w is converted from M _L-LDG through linear regression rules. In the smallest magnitude range M _L-LDG <3.1, special attention is paid to the non-unity slope of the relation between the local magnitudes and M _w. All M _w determined during the SI-Hex project is calibrated according to reference M _w of recent events. As for some small events, no M _L-LDG has been determined; local magnitudes issued by other French networks or LDG duration magnitude (M _D) are first converted into M _L-LDG before applying the conversion rules. This paper shows how the different sources of information and the different magnitude ranges are combined in order to determine an unbiased set of M _w for the whole 38,027 events of the catalogue.     

A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

Mechanism of formation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis>-disturbances in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> region of the equatorial ionosphere

Using model simulations, the morphological picture (revealed earlier) of the disturbances in the F ₂ region of the equatorial ionosphere under quiet geomagnetic conditions (Q-disturbances) is interpreted. It is shown that the observed variations in the velocity of the vertical E × B plasma drift, related to the zonal E _y component of the electric field, are responsible for the formation of Q-disturbances. The plasma recombination at altitudes of the lower part of the F ₂ region and the dependence of the rate of this process on heliogeophysical conditions compose the mechanism of Q-disturbance formation at night. The daytime positive Q-disturbances are caused exclusively by a decrease in the upward E × B drift, and this type of disturbances could be related to the known phenomenon of counter electrojet. Possible causes of formation of the daytime negative Q-disturbances are discussed.     

Dependence of geomagnetic disturbances on extreme values of the solar wind <Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">y</Emphasis></Subscript> component

The dependence of the zonal geomagnetic indices (AE, Ap, Kp, Kn, and Dst) on the solar wind parameters (the electric field E _y component, dynamic pressure P _d and IMF irregularity σB) has been studied for two types of events: magnetic clouds and high-speed streams. Based on the empirical relationships, it has been established that the AE, Ap, Kp, and Kn indices are directly proportional to the E _y value at E _y < 12 mV m^?1 and are inversely proportional to this value at E _y > 12 mV m^?1 for the first-type events. On the contrary, the dependence of Dst on E _y is monotonous nonlinear. A linear dependence of all geomagnetic indices on E _y is typical of the second-type events. It has been indicated that the specific features of geoeffectiveness of magnetic clouds and high-speed solar wind streams are caused by the dependence of the electric field potential across the polar cap on the electric field, solar wind dynamic pressure, and IMF fluctuations.     

Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

Precursor times of abnormal <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-values prior to mainshocks

Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T _p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T _p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T _p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T _p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.     

Seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 6.9 Ilin-Tass earthquake in northeast Yakutia

The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (M_s = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (M_s = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (M_s = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (M_s = 6.9) earthquakes.     

Long-term changes in the relation between <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2

The change in the dependence of the F2-layer critical frequency on its height hmF2 is considered based on two sources of initial data used earlier by the authors. It is found that the slope k of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 systematically decreases from the earlier (“etalon”) period, 1958–1980, to the later periods of 1988–2010, 1998–2010, and 1998–2014. Since the foF2 value depends on the atomic oxygen concentration in the F region much more strongly than hmF2, the found decrease in k confirms the concept of a decrease in the atomic oxygen concentration in the thermosphere with time previously formulated by the authors.     

Seasonal variation of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> tide

The seasonal cycle of the main lunar tidal constituent M ₂ is studied globally by an analysis of a high-resolution ocean circulation and tide model (STORMTIDE) simulation, of 19 years of satellite altimeter data, and of multiyear tide-gauge records. The barotropic seasonal tidal variability is dominant in coastal and polar regions with relative changes of the tidal amplitude of 5–10 %. A comparison with the observations shows that the ocean circulation and tide model captures the seasonal pattern of the M ₂ tide reasonably well. There are two main processes leading to the seasonal variability in the barotropic tide: First, seasonal changes in stratification on the continental shelf affect the vertical profile of eddy viscosity and, in turn, the vertical current profile. Second, the frictional effect between sea-ice and the surface ocean layer leads to seasonally varying tidal transport. We estimate from the model simulation that the M ₂ tidal energy dissipation at the sea surface varies seasonally in the Arctic (ocean regions north of 60°N) between 2 and 34 GW, whereas in the Southern Ocean, it varies between 0.5 and 2 GW. The M ₂ internal tide is mainly affected by stratification, and the induced modified phase speed of the internal waves leads to amplitude differences in the surface tide signal of 0.005–0.0150 m. The seasonal signals of the M ₂ surface tide are large compared to the accuracy demands of satellite altimetry and gravity observations and emphasize the importance to consider seasonal tidal variability in the correction processes of satellite data.     

Experimental examination on the heterogeneity parameter <Emphasis Type="Italic">C</Emphasis><Subscript>v</Subscript> of earthquake precursors

Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multipoint strain measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during the deformation and the instability process were analyzed by using C _v value put forward by WANG Xiao-qing and CHEN Xue-zhong, et al, a parameter to describe the heterogeneous distribution of earthquake precursors, so as to examine the method of C _v value and to explore its physical meaning experimentally. The result shows that the change of C _v value is correlated to the change of deformation characteristics and is an effective parameter to describe the heterogeneity of precursor distribution. C _v value increases firstly and then decreases before the instability, and the instability occurs when C _v value decreases to the level before increasing. This indicates that C _v value may be a useful parameter for earthquake prediction.     

Estimation of storm-time level of day-side wave geomagnetic activity using a new <Emphasis Type="Italic">ULF</Emphasis> index

The level of wave geomagnetic activity in the morning and daytime sectors of auroral latitudes during strong magnetic storms with Dst _min varying from ?100 to ?150 nT in 1995–2002 have been studied using a new ULF index of wave activity proposed in [Kozyreva et al., 2007]. It has been detected that daytime Pc5 pulsations (2–6 mHz) are most intense during the main phase of a magnetic storm rather than during the recovery phase as was considered previously. It has been indicated that morning geomagnetic pulsations during the substorm recovery phase mainly contribute to daytime wave activity. The appearance of individual intervals with the southward IMF B _z component during the magnetic storm recovery phase results in increases in the ULF index values.     

Attenuation coefficients of Rayleigh and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lg</Emphasis> waves

Analysis of the frequency dependence of the attenuation coefficient leads to significant changes in interpretation of seismic attenuation data. Here, several published surface-wave attenuation studies are revisited from a uniform viewpoint of the temporal attenuation coefficient, denoted by χ. Theoretically, χ( f) is expected to be linear in frequency, with a generally non-zero intercept γ?=?χ(0) related to the variations of geometrical spreading, and slope dχ/df = π/Q _e caused by the effective attenuation of the medium. This phenomenological model allows a simple classification of χ( f) dependences as combinations of linear segments within several frequency bands. Such linear patterns are indeed observed for Rayleigh waves at 500–100-s and 100–10-s periods, and also for Lg from ~2 s to ~1.5 Hz. The Lg χ( f) branch overlaps with similar linear branches of body, Pn, and coda waves, which were described earlier and extend to ~100 Hz. For surface waves shorter than ~100 s, γ values recorded in areas of stable and active tectonics are separated by the levels of \(\gamma _{D} \approx 0.2 \times 10^{-3}\) s^???1 (for Rayleigh waves) and 8 ×10^???3 s^???1 (for Lg). The recently recognized discrepancy between the values of Q measured from long-period surface waves and normal-mode oscillations could also be explained by a slight positive bias in the geometrical spreading of surface waves. Similarly to the apparent χ, the corresponding linear variation with frequency is inferred for the intrinsic attenuation coefficient, χ _i , which combines the effects of geometrical spreading and dissipation within the medium. Frequency-dependent rheological or scattering Q is not required for explaining any of the attenuation observations considered in this study. The often-interpreted increase of Q with frequency may be apparent and caused by using the Q-based model of attenuation and following preferred Q( f) dependences while ignoring the true χ( f) trends within the individual frequency bands.     

Application of Fisher method to discriminating earthquakes and explosions using criterion <Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis><Subscript>b</Subscript>/<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>

We try to give a quantitative and global discrimination function by studying m _b/M _S data using Fisher method that is a kind of pattern recognition methods. The reliability of the function is also analyzed. The results show that this criterion works well and has a global feature, which can be used as first-level filtering criterions in event identification. The quantitative and linear discrimination function makes it possible to identify events automatically and achieve the goal to react the events quickly and effectively.     

On the Ultra Long Propagation of Felt Ground Motion Due to the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> 8.3 Deep-Focus Sea-of-Okhotsk Earthquake of May 24, 2013

This study uses macroseismic data and wave equations to solve the problem of ultra long propagation of felt ground motion (over 9000 km from the epicenter) due to the Sea-of-Okhotsk earthquake. We show that the principal mechanism of this phenomenon could be excitation of a previously unknown standing radial wave as a mode of the Earth’s free oscillations, ₀S₀, due to the superposition of an incident and a reflected spherical P wave in the epicentral area of the Sea-of-Okhotsk earthquake. The standing wave generates slowly attenuating P waves that travel over the earth’s surface that act as carrying waves; when superposed on these, direct body waves acquire the ability to travel over great distances. We show previously unknown parameters of the radial mode ₀S₀ for the initial phase of earth deformation due to the large deep-focus earthquake. We used data on the Sea-of-Okhotsk and Bolivian earthquakes to show that large deep-focus earthquakes can excite free oscillations of the Earth that are not only recorded by instrumental means, but are also felt by people, with the amplification of the macroseismic effect being directly related to the phenomenon of resonance for multistory buildings.     

Region-specific <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-wave attenuation for earthquakes in northwestern Iran

In this study, continuous wavelet transform is applied to estimate the frequency-dependent quality factor of shear waves, Q _S , in northwestern Iran. The dataset used in this study includes velocigrams of more than 50 events with magnitudes between 4.0 and 6.5, which have occurred in the study area. The CWT-based method shows a high-resolution technique for the estimation of S-wave frequency-dependent attenuation. The quality factor values are determined in the form of a power law as Q _S (f)?=?(147?±?16)f ^0.71?±?0.02 and (126?±?12)f ^0.73?±?0.02 for vertical and horizontal components, respectively, where f is between 0.9 and 12 Hz. Furthermore, in order to verify the reliability of the suggested Q _S estimator method, an additional test is performed by using accelerograms of Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes on August 11, 2012, of moment magnitudes 6.4 and 6.3 and their aftershocks. Results indicate that the estimated Q _S values from CWT-based method are not very sensitive to the numbers and types of waveforms used (velocity or acceleration).     

Variation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> value before and after the 1999 Xiuyan,Liaoning Province, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis>=5.4 earthquake on the basis of analysis on attenuation dispersion of P waves

A method for determining medium quality factor is developed on the basis of analyzing the attenuation dispersion of the arrived first period P wave. In order to enhance signal to noise ratio, improve the resolution in measurement and reduce systematic error we applied the data resampling technique. The group velocity delay of P wave was derived by using an improved multi-filtering method. Based on a linear viscoelastic relaxation model we deduced the medium quality factor Q _m, and associated error with 95% confidence level. Applying the method to the seismic record of the Xiuyan M=5.4 earthquake sequences we obtained the following result: (1) High Q _m started to appear from Nov. 9, 1999. The events giving the deduced high Q _m value clustered in a region with their epicenter distances being between 32 and 46 km to the Yingkou station. This Q _m versus distance observation obviously deviates from the normal trend of Q _m linearly increasing with distance. (2) The average Q _m before the 29 Dec. 1999 M=5.4 earthquake is 460, while the average Q _m between the M=5.4 event and the 12 Jan. 2000 M=5.1 earthquake is 391, and the average Q _m after the M=5.1 event is 204.     

Critical frequencies <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 as an indicator of trends in thermospheric dynamics

The time variations in three parameters during the last decades are considered. R(foF2) is the correlation coefficient between the nighttime and daytime values of foF2 for the same day. Stable trends are found for the minimum (R(foF2)(max)) and maximum (R(foF2)(min)) values of R(foF2) during a year. The foF2(night)/foF2(day) ratio demonstrates both, negative and positive trends, and the trend sign depends on the inclination I and declination D of the magnetic field. The correlation coefficient r(h, fo) between foF2 and the 100 hP level in the stratosphere demonstrates a decrease (in the years of maximum and minimum solar activity) from the 1980s to the 1990s. The trends in all three groups of data are considered under the assumption of long-term changes in the circulation in the upper atmosphere.     

Behavior of Parameters of Enhancements in the Nighttime Electron Concentration in the Ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 Layer

We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N _m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h _Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h _m F, while h _Am is always less than h _m F. The difference between h _Am and h _m F linearly increases with increasing h _m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h _m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h _m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN _m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.