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该文对道光三年(1823年)长江下游与华北的严重洪水概况及其对社会经济的影响作了初步探讨,并对这次洪水发生的原因及灾害形成的机制也作了分析,认为了解这次洪水及其产生的影响对于我国减灾战略的制订有重要参考价值。 相似文献
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浅析了新疆“96·7”大面积暴雨洪水的成因、洪水特性,根据短系列水情资料初步计算了洪水重现期,并对“96·7”洪水灾害从自然因素、人文因素进行了分析。 相似文献
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分析邕江洪峰水位序列的特征及其与环境场的相关关系,对邕江洪水的天气气候成因及预测因子作初步探讨,得到一些对实际预测有用的结果。 相似文献
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陕西清涧河上游200-07-04降特大暴雨,山洪暴发,致使清涧河干支流洪水猛涨,形成了该河历史上罕见的特大洪水。对该次暴雨洪水的成因、时空分布及特点和洪水过程进行了分析,发现这次洪水的暴雨中心和洪水形成均在上游地区,清涧河的降水特性和地貌特点及上游大面积滑坡阻水后跨坝是造成本次洪水暴涨暴落的基本原因。 相似文献
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2003年6月21日,维他克河发生了特大山洪,洪峰流量排在有正式水文资料记载以来的第二位,部分河沟发生泥石流,给流域造成了严重灾害。本文根据流域实测降水、流量及气象卫星云图等资料,对此次洪水、泥石流过程的水文特性和气象成因作了初步分析。 相似文献
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郁江南宁17场洪水之合成面雨量特征分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
对郁江南宁17场洪水的合成面雨量分布特征作了较系统的分析,发现经发南宁洪水的主要天气系统及其配置、合成面雨量的流域值及“68.8”大洪水和“01.7”特大洪水的合成面雨量表征,对今后进一步做好重大洪水的气象服务具有十分积极的意义。 相似文献
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通过对阿拉沟河洪水形成、洪水类型、洪水与气象要素的关系,以及阿拉沟河发生洪水对吐鲁番盆地生态环境影响分析,为开展洪水预报、防洪规划、河道治理提供了科学依据。 相似文献
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分析邕江洪峰水位序列的特征及其与环境场的相关关系,对邕江洪水的天气气候成因及预测因子作初步探讨,得到一些对实际预测有用的结果。 相似文献
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Rüdiger Glaser Dirk Riemann Johannes Schönbein Mariano Barriendos Rudolf Brázdil Chiara Bertolin Dario Camuffo Mathias Deutsch Petr Dobrovolný Aryan van Engelen Silvia Enzi Monika Halíčková Sebastian J. Koenig Oldřich Kotyza Danuta Limanówka Jarmila Macková Mirca Sghedoni Brice Martin Iso Himmelsbach 《Climatic change》2010,101(1-2):235-256
The paper presents a qualitative and quantitative analysis of flood variability and forcing of major European rivers since AD 1500. We compile and investigate flood reconstructions which are based on documentary evidence for twelve Central European rivers and for eight Mediterranean rivers. Flood variability and underlying climatological causes are reconstructed by using hermeneutic approaches including critical source analysis and by applying a semi-quantitative classification scheme. The paper describes the driving climatic causes, seasonality and variability of observed flood events within the different river catchments covering the European mainland. Historical flood data are presented and recent research in the field of historical flood reconstructions is highlighted. Additionally, the character of the different flood series is discussed. A comparison of the historical flood seasonality in relation to modern distribution is given and aspects of the spatial coherence are presented. The comparative analysis points to the fact that the number of flood events is predominately triggered by regional climatic forcing, with at most only minor influence on neighbouring catchments. The only exceptions are extreme, supra-regional climatic events and conditions such as anomalous cold winters, similar to that of 1784, which affected large parts of Europe and triggered flood events in several catchments as a result of ice-break at the beginning of the annual thaw. Four periods of increased occurrence of flooding, mostly affecting Central European Rivers, have been identified; 1540–1600, 1640–1700, 1730–1790, 1790–1840. The reconstruction, compilation and analysis of European-wide flood data over the last five centuries reveal the complexity of the underlying climatological causes and the high variability of flood events in temporal and spatial dimension. 相似文献
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城市洪灾的成因是多方面的,除受地理地形、气候条件等许多自然因素影响外,也受到人类活动等人为因素影响。城市不透水地面增多,城区降水增多及绿地、植被减少,排洪能力差,水体面积减少等,是城市内涝加剧的主要原因。为减轻和预防洪水给城市居民带来生命和财产威胁,应做好防洪规划。在做规划时,除应考虑提高防洪标准、加快建设城市防洪工程并保证其质量、增加地面覆盖度、改善生态环境、妥善管理防洪设施外,还应考虑风险与脆弱性、减少地面沉降及建立现代化防洪体系。 相似文献
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甘肃南部主汛期强降水日数变化特征及其可能原因 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
根据甘肃省南部24个地面气象站1971-2010年逐日降水、武都高空探测和NCEP再分析资料,分析了甘肃南部主汛期强降水日数变化特征,探索了其形成的可能原因。结果表明,甘肃省南部地区主汛期强降水日数存在年际差异和年代际差异。其可能原因包括大气温湿场差异引起的大气潜在不稳定性差异、水汽条件的差异和大气动力作用的差异等。甘肃南部地区主汛期强降水日数偏多的年份,该地区大气中下部温度和相对湿度偏高,中上部温度和相对湿度偏低,小稳定指数K指数较大,这意味着大气中潜在的不稳定性较强,同时低层辐合高层辐散较强,有利于上升运动,导致强降水天气出现的几率偏大。 相似文献
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张俊兰 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2012,6(4):1-6
2011年4月下旬南疆托什干河流域发生了罕见的融雪型洪水,卫星遥感监测到此次融雪型洪水过程中山区积雪的变化。本文从气象的角度分析了其成因,结果表明:托什干河流域融雪型洪水出现前上游地区降水明显偏多,高空0℃层高度持续和异常偏高,流域上空出现了明显的高空温度脊,并有较强的暖平流配合,暖平流出现的时间、强度与托什干河融雪洪峰出现的时间和大小有较好的对应关系。这些条件为托什干河流域融雪型洪水的预报提供了较好的技术指标。 相似文献
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新疆呼图壁河“99·7’’洪水成因分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
依据有关气象与水文资料对新疆呼图壁河1999年7月20日12时发生的大洪水进行了分析,从而揭示呼图壁河“99.7”洪水发生、发展的成因。 相似文献
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J. Rolf Olsen 《Climatic change》2006,76(3-4):407-426
Federal agencies use flood frequency estimates to delineate flood risk, manage the National Flood Insurance Program, and ensure that Federal programs are economically efficient. The assumption behind traditional flood risk analysis is that climate is stationary, but anthropogenic climate change and better knowledge of interdecadal climate variability challenge the validity of the assumption. This paper reviews several alternative statistical models for flood risk estimation that do not assume climate stationarity. Some models require subjective judgement or presuppose an understanding of the causes of the underlying non-stationarity, which is problematic given our current knowledge of the interaction of climate and floods. Although currently out of favor, hydrometeorological models have been used for engineering design as alternatives to statistical models and could be adapted to different climate conditions. Floodplain managers should recognize the potentially greater uncertainty in flood risk estimation due to climate change and variability and try to incorporate the uncertainties into floodplain management decision-making and regulation. 相似文献