北京夏季旱涝的大气环流特征及其与前期北太平洋SST的关系

利用1979~1995年的NOAA/NCAR高空再分析格点资料, 及同期北京夏季相当暴雨日数, 冬季和春季太平洋海面温度资料、进行北京夏季旱涝对比和相关分析, 结果表明:北京夏季旱涝的平均大气环流形势有明显差异, 且夏季涝年的平均大气环流距平场和夏季相当暴雨日数与大气环流的相关场都具有暴雨过程平均环流的主要特征; 北京夏季相当暴雨日数和大气环流场都与赤道西太平洋 (暖池) 的春季SST存在显著的遥相关, 春季暖池SST的异常变化是北京夏季旱涝预测的一个强信号。     

中国华南春季季风及其与大尺度环流特征的关系

定义了中国华南春季季风，并用NCEP／NCAR再分析资料研究了春季风的气候特征以及春季风降水和大尺度环流在年际变化上的关系。结果表明，从降水和大气环流的变化来看，华南春季风在气候上发生于4月和5月；与华南春季风相联系的大气环流特征与夏季风和冬季风所对应的大气环流特征完全不同。华南春季风降水的年际变化主要与太平洋北部的异常环流相关联，而这种异常环流又与亚洲北部的西风急流和极地涡旋有联系；华南春季风降水的年际变化还与太平洋的海表温度异常有关；而亚洲热带大气环流的年际变化与华南春季风降水的变化关系不大。     

2019年春季我国主要气候异常特征及可能成因分析

2019年春季(3—5月),全国平均气温为11.5℃,为1961年以来历史同期第四位;全国平均降水量为148.7 mm,接近常年同期,但旱涝分布差异显著。东北、西北地区东部和华南降水显著偏多,而黄淮、江淮及云南大部降水异常偏少,其中云南地区降水量为历史同期最少。气温偏高和降水空间分布不均导致旱涝灾害并存。季内气候变化显著,表现出东亚冬季风环流向夏季风环流转换期的特征。春季(尤其是3—4月)全国大部地区气温偏高受到中纬度环流型的明显影响,乌拉尔山及其以北地区为负高度距平中心,而乌拉尔山以东到贝加尔湖地区为大范围正高度距平,这种异常环流形势非常有利于我同气温整体偏高。另一方面,低伟度大气环流则表现出对热带海温异常的明显响应,西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高)异常偏强、偏西及偏南,这基本决定了我国春季降水异常的空间分布型,其强度和位置不仅能够直接影响南方降水分布,同时通过与中高纬异常环流的相互作用,共同影响我国北方降水异常格局。进一步分析热带海温外强迫的影响显示,在El Nino衰减年的春季,热带印度洋海温的增暖对西太副高持续偏强偏西起到更重要的作用;而El Nino事件本身对西太副高强度的影响在春季逐渐减弱,对西太副高南北位置的影响增强。     

华亲夏季旱涝的前期环流异常及其与北太平洋海温的关系

文章分析了华北地区夏季旱涝的前期春季大气环流和北太平洋海温异常分布特征，探讨ＳＳＴＡ与异常环流的关系，并用ＯＳＵ－ＡＧＣＭ进行黑潮地区热源异常强迫的数值试验。结果表明，当春季北极低涡明显减弱，欧亚大陆中高纬度地区纬向环流加强，西太平洋副高位置偏北偏西，且存在负ＰＮＡ型异常环流时，华北地区夏季多雨涝；反之则少雨干旱。     

闽西北盛夏异常旱涝的环流特征及其诊断分析

通过对闽西北盛夏异常旱涝年份的环流特征对比分析得知,闽西北盛夏的异常旱涝与同期西太平洋副热带高压活动、欧亚中高纬度西风带环流特征等密切相关。进一步分析结果表明,春季(3~5月)的西太平洋副高强度、东亚槽强度等对盛夏异常旱涝有一定指示意义。     

闽西北盛夏异常旱涝的环流特征及其诊断分析

通过对闽西北盛夏异常旱涝年份的环流特征对比分析得知,闽西北盛夏的异常旱涝与同期西太平洋副热带高压活动、欧亚中高纬度西风带环流特征等密切相关。进一步分析结果表明,春季（3-5月）的西太平洋副高强度、东亚槽强度等对盛夏异常旱涝有一定指示意义。     

华北旱涝的遥相关型结构

华北旱涝的遥相关型结构苗峻峰（天津市气象局）１引言大范围持续性旱涝现象是大气环流持续异常的直接反映，而局部地区的旱涝也并非是一种孤立现象，它与大气环流持续异常有关。有关研究表明，华北地区旱涝与东亚环流型特征、西太平洋副热带高压异常活动以及西风急流的变...     

华北夏季旱涝的前期环流异常及其与北太平洋海温的关系

文章分析了华北地区夏季旱涝的前期春季大气环流和北太平洋海温异常（ＳＳＴＡ）分布特征，探讨ＳＳＴＡ与异常环流的关系，并用ＯＳＵ－ＡＧＣＭ进行黑潮地区热源异常强迫的数值试验．结果表明，当春季北极低涡明显减弱，欧亚大陆中高纬度地区纬向环流加强，西太平洋副高位置偏北偏西，且存在负ＰＮＡ型异常环流时，华北地区夏季多雨涝；反之则少雨干旱．此时，西北太平洋和赤道东太平洋ＳＳＴ分别存在较大的正、负异常，它们与春季环流异常密切相关，黑潮区ＳＳＴＡ对北半球副热带及其以北的大气环流产生显著影响，正的ＳＳＴＡ是造成华北夏涝年的前期春季异常环流形势的重要因素．     

长江中下游旱涝的环流型与赤道东太平洋海温遥相关波列特征

根据长江中下游地区夏季旱涝年前期冬、春季北太平洋海温分布特征进行分析研究 ,提出了影响区域性旱涝的海温“强信号”概念 ;探讨了北半球大气环流结构对赤道东太平洋海温异常响应问题 ,并研究了东太平洋海温与北半球夏、春季高度偏差场季尺度相关偏差场波列结构相关特征。研究结果表明 ,赤道东太平洋海温异常可能通过低纬walker环流引起赤道西太平洋区域性大气异常运动 ,从而产生遥响应环流型 ,形成类似PNA遥相关“大圆波列”。此类遥响应特征在西太平洋区域表现出与副热带高压、西风槽、阻塞高压等相关的系统的准定常经向波列。研究结果还表明此类经向波列结构描述了中高纬地区系统对低纬异常海温遥响应的动力学特征。应用 1997～ 1998年冬季实际海温资料 ,并在赤道中东太平洋地区引入实际海温异常的敏感性试验 ,较成功地模拟了 1998年夏季长江流域洪涝的降水分布特征。文中从统计、动力分析和数值模拟综合分析方法揭示出由前期东太平洋海温异常引起的大气环流变异 ,构成中国长江流域旱涝的物理图像及其动力学模型。     

An enhanced influence of sea surface temperature in the tropical northern Atlantic on the following winter ENSO since the early 1980s

已有研究指出春季热带北大西洋海温对随后冬季ENSO事件的发生存在显著的影响。该研究发现它们的联系在20世纪80年代初以后显著增强。20世纪80年代初以后,春季热带北大西洋海温为正异常时,副热带东北太平洋存在显著的异常气旋环流,同时异常沃克环流在热带中东太平洋引起显著的异常下沉运动。异常气旋环流西侧的东北风异常增强气候态的风速,导致负海温异常。负海温异常通过Gill型大气响应使得热带西北太平洋产生异常的反气旋环流。同时,热带中东太平洋的沃克环流异常下沉运动也对热带西北太平洋异常反气旋环流的形成起到一定作用。热带西北太平洋反气旋环流南侧的东风异常通过海洋动力过程对随后冬季ENSO产生影响。因此,春季热带北大西洋海温对冬季ENSO存在显著的影响。然而,20世纪80年代以前,春季热带北大西洋海温相关的热带东北太平洋异常气旋环流和热带地区的异常沃克环流不显著,从而不能在热带西北太平洋产生异常反气旋。所以,20世纪80年代以前,春季热带北大西洋海温对冬季ENSO的影响不显著。进一步的分析指出,春季热带北大西洋海温对ENSO影响的年代际变化可能与热带北大西洋降水气候态的年代际变化有关。     

大连地区主汛期多、少雨年同期大气环流场的差异

大连地区主汛期降水异常是该地区大气环流异常直接影响的结果,本文用1961~2000年各层大气环流场资料来分析对比多、少雨年同期大气环流的情况。揭示出大连地区主汛期多雨年和少雨年同期的海平面气压场、850 hPa大气环流场、500 hPa西风带槽脊和高度场都存在显著差异。多雨年较少雨年该地区低层的辐合上升运动加强,850 hPa盛行西南气流,水汽输送旺盛。同时,500 hPa西风带的槽脊波动加深,高空西风急流增强。     

CLIMATOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF SPRING PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHERN CHINA AND ITS INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATION

Based on observations and reanalysis data, the characteristics of the evolution of climatological spring precipitation over Southern China (SPSC) and the associated climatological intraseasonal oscillation (CISO) and atmospheric circulation are studied. Results show that SPSC increases in an oscillatory way. Although the evolution of SPSC is similar in different regions, there are also differences. In different regions of Southern China, the onset dates of the rain season are from the 12th to 24th pentad and the peak dates are after the 20th pentad. CISO is an important component of SPSC, which is not only statistically significant, but also accompanies a dynamically coherent structure. The peak wet/dry phase of each CISO cycle corresponds to a significant rainfall increasing/decreasing period and modulates the evolution of SPSC. The rainfall growth in the second half of March and mid-April is the result of the modulation. The wet/dry phase of CISO is accompanied by low-level convergent (upper-level divergent) and cyclonic (anti-cyclonic) circulation, which favors ascending motion to develop over Southern China.     

西北地区干、湿夏季的前期环流和水汽差异

用西北地区夏季 (6、7、8月) 共19个站降水量观测资料以及NCEP/ NCAR 1958~1997年再分析全球月平均网格点前期 (春季) 资料, 选取西北地区周边范围内夏季干、湿年的前期春季各个物理量场进行相关统计分析, 结果表明前期春季影响西北地区夏季干、湿的相关区域环流特征和水汽特征有显著差异。     

Demarcating the worldwide monsoon

Summary The monsoon is a global climate phenomenon. This paper addresses the seasonal reversal of atmospheric circulation and the transition of dry/wet spells in the monsoon regions worldwide. The NCEP/NCAR 850 hPa wind reanalysis data for 1950–1999 and the upper-tropospheric water vapour (UTWV) band brightness temperature (BT) data observed by NOAA polar orbiting satellites for 1980–1995 are used. In the tropics, there are three large wet-UTWV centres. The summer monsoon in the subtropics can be defined as the expansion of these centres associated with the influence of cross-equatorial flows. Specifically, the dry/wet spell transition is determined by the BT values that are smaller than 244 K. The regions of the South and North African monsoons, the Asian-northwest Pacific and Australian-Southwest Pacific monsoons, and the North and South American monsoons are examined with a focus on the dry/wet spell transition and stream field features. Findings suggest that the summer monsoons over many subtropical regions can be defined by both cross-equatorial flows and dry/wet spell transitions. In the mid- and low-latitudes, there exist six major dry/wet spell transition regions with a dry or wet period lasting more than one month. The region of most significant change is located over the subtropical North Africa–Asia–northwest Pacific. The others appear over subtropical South Africa, Indonesia–Australia, southwest Pacific, the Mexico-Caribbean Sea, and subtropical South America. In addition, three regions exist where only one of the two indicators (cross-equatorial flow and dry/wet transition) is satisfied. The first is near the Equator where the directions of cross-equatorial flows alternate but a dry/wet spell transition is never experienced. The second is over North Africa where only the dry/wet spell transition can be found but not the cross-equatorial flows. The third is over the mid-latitude regions in North China, South Africa, and northern North America. These regions are influenced by cross-equatorial flows but the upper-tropospheric water vapour content is not as high as that in tropical regions. Received June 29, 2000 Revised May 15, 2001     

塔里木河流域夏季降水年际和年代变化的环流异常

基于1961-2020年夏季（6-8月）NCAR/NCEP再分析资料和塔里木河流域（简称“塔河”）38个气象站降水资料,使用5年滑动平均分离出塔河夏季降水年代际和年际变化,选出了典型的年际变化的干年和湿年与年代际变化的干期（1963-1986年）和湿期（1989-2018年）,分析了与这两种时间尺度变化相关联的大气环流异常。结果表明,两者的变化不同,影响两者变化的大气环流不同。影响年代际变化的大气环流异常主要表现在欧亚大陆对流层从西北至东南交替出现正负位势高度异常中心,在湿期塔河东部和西部分别出现明显的东风和西南风异常,水汽主要由西北太平洋和印度洋输送至塔河,在干期则与之相反;影响年际变化的大气环流异常主要表现为在塔河东部和西部对流层分别为反气旋异常和气旋异常,在多雨年从南北方向向塔河输送的水汽增多,北风水汽通量异常向流域输送较多,南风水汽通量异常向流域输送较小且主要集中在流域西部,水汽主要由北冰洋洋和印度洋输送至塔河。在干年则与之相反。     

夏季东亚季风与西太平洋副高对福建旱涝影响的诊断分析

利用NCEP/NCAR发布的850 hPa风场和OLR场以及福建38个站月降水资料, 分析了福建夏季旱涝与东亚夏季风及西太平洋副高的关系。结果表明夏季旱涝与夏季风强弱及副高南北位置密切相关。涝 (旱) 年在东亚季风系统中的热带季风环流出现异常加强 (减弱), 副热带季风环流则出现异常减弱 (加强); 涝年副高平均脊线位置偏北于27°N附近, 旱年则偏南于24°N附近; 由春入夏, 再由夏入秋副高南北位置的季节位移, 涝年先是急速北跳, 而后又急速南撤, 旱年却进退平缓。旱涝年东亚中高纬度环流亦表现出不同特征, 涝 (旱) 年一般没有 (有) 出现阻塞形势, 中纬度纬 (经) 向环流发展, 副热带锋区北抬 (南压), 研究还进一步揭示了夏季副高位置南北偏离影响夏季各月降水及其分布的不同形式。     

华南春季降水和水汽输送的年代际变化特征

The characteristics of spring precipitation and water vapor transport in South China were analyzed by using observational data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） reanalysis data. The results show that, during the spring, each component of the water cycle （precipitation, wind field, specific humidity, water vapor transport, etc.） in South China exhibits a notable interdecadal variability. An abrupt increase in spring precipitation occurred in the early 1970s. During the dry period from 1958 to 1971, a water vapor flux divergence （positive divQ） existed in South China, which may have led to the deficiency in rainfall. However, during the wet period from 1973 to 1989, there was a remarkable water vapor flux convergence （negative divQ） in South China, which may have resulted in the higher rainfall. The interdecadal variability of water vapor transport is closely related to the interdecadal variability of wind fields, although the interdecadal variability of specific humidity also plays a role to some extent, and the interdecadal variability of the zonal water vapor transport contributes much more to the interdecadal variability of spring precipitation than the meridional water vapor transport.     

STUDY ON THE MAIN CLIMATE MODES OF SHANDONG PRECIPITATION AND THEIR RELATIONS WITH THE EAST ASIAN WESTERLY JET

Summer precipitation patterns of Shandong Province are relatively independent with regard to the whole eastern China region.To study the rules and causes of precipitation variations,three main climate modes-on the annual,seasonal,and climatic intra-seasonal oscillation(CISO) scales-are extracted using a harmonic analysis method based on daily precipitation of Shandong during 1965-2009 and multi-year averaged pentad precipitation at 722 stations in China during 1971-2000.Among the three precipitation climate modes,the annual mode is closely related to the annual cycle of Earth-Atmosphere thermal system,which is characterized by the periodic dry and wet seasons.The seasonal mode reflects the monsoon effect on precipitation and the main flood season’s contribution to annual precipitation variations.As an important climatic signal,the CISO mode is more evident during summer monsoon.The gradual modulations of the CISO mode,seasonal mode,and annual mode control the annual variation of precipitation.To study the relationship between precipitation climate modes and atmospheric circulations,an East Asian Westerly Jet Index(EAWJI) is defined in this paper.It is revealed that precipitation of Shandong is closely related to EAWJI in all climate modes.A wet or dry phase of each climate mode corresponds to a specific atmospheric circulation pattern.The phase of the annual mode is reverse to that of EAWJI.During the wet phase of the seasonal mode(weak phase of EAWJI),the atmospheric circulation in and around Shandong is characterized by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.A reversed atmospheric circulation exists for the dry phase(strong phase for EAWJI).In the summer wet phase of CISO mode(strong phase of EAWJI),Shandong is controlled by upper-level divergence and low-level convergence.Again,the dry phase is corresponding to a reversed circulation structure.The methodology employed in this research,i.e.studying the precipitation climatic variations in terms of independent components of different temporal scales,provides a new approach for annual and seasonal precipitation prediction.     

Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation

This study represents the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic sampling focused on developing chronologies from different species in the eastern Mediterranean region. Six reconstructions were developed from chronologies ranging in length from 115 years to 600 years. The first reconstruction (1885–2000) was derived from principal components (PCs) of 36 combined chronologies. The remaining five, 1800–2000, 1700–2000, 1600–2000, 1500–2000 and 1400–2000 were developed from PCs of 32, 18, 14, 9, and 7 chronologies, respectively. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1931–2000 show good levels of skill for all reconstructions. The longest period of consecutive dry years, defined as those with less than 90% of the mean of the observed May–August precipitation, was 5 years (1591–1595) and occurred only once during the last 600 years. The longest reconstructed wet period was 5 years (1601–1605 and 1751–1755). No long term trends were found in May–August precipitation during the last few centuries. Regression maps are used to identify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation. In general, tree-ring indices are influenced by May–August precipitation, which is driven by anomalous below (above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence) and small pressure gradients at sea level. These atmospheric conditions also control the anomaly surface air temperature distribution which indicates below (above) normal values in the southern regions and warmer (cooler) conditions north of around 40°N. A compositing technique is used to extract information on large-scale climate signals from extreme wet and dry summers for the second half of the twentieth century and an independent reconstruction over the last 237 years. Similar main modes of atmospheric patterns and surface air temperature distribution related to extreme dry and wet summers were identified both for the most recent 50 years and the last 237 years. Except for the last few decades, running correlation analyses between the major European-scale circulation patterns and eastern Mediteranean spring/summer precipitation over the last 237 years are non-stationary and insignificant, suggesting that local and/or sub-regional geographic factors and processes are important influences on tree-ring variability over the last few centuries.     

2005年北半球大气环流特征及其对中国气候异常的影响

2005年北半球主要环流特征为，500hPa西太平洋副热带高压较常年明显偏强，位置总体偏西偏北，春季副高位置异常偏西；东亚地区夏季500hPa位势高度距平场上大部地区为正距平分布，贝加尔湖南部为正距平中心。亚洲中纬度经、纬向环流交替出现，冬季经向环流异常发展，造成我国东部地区气温异常偏低；夏李纬向环流发展，同时东亚夏季风偏强，汛期主要雨带位置位于淮河流域。冬、春李热带对流活动减弱，入夏以后迅速加强，台风活动活跃。热带海洋为暖水位相。在海洋和大气环流的共同影响下我国天气气候发生了明显异常。