卫星轨道确定模型误差的深度加权核估计方法

卫星动力学模型误差是客观存在的事实,动力学模型误差传递到轨道确定算法中构成部分形式未知的模型误差,并且与测量系统自身的系统误差和随机误差耦合在一起形成定轨模型误差,严重影响轨道确定精度.详细推导了存在动力学模型误差的轨道改进方程,对模型中能准确描述的部分建立了参数化模型,对不能准确描述的误差部分,建立了非参数模型.构建了部分线性轨道改进模型,利用二阶段估计法和核函数估计法对模型误差进行拟合估计,并在轨道改进中予以补偿.根据数据深度理论,建立了非参数模型误差的深度加权核估计方法,提高了模型误差估计的抗差性.最后结合天基空间目标监视系统进行了轨道确定仿真实验.实验结果表明,模型误差是影响轨道确定精度的重要因素,核函数估计法可以有效估计定轨中的模型误差,窗宽是提高模型估计精度的重要变量,通过深度加权处理可以明显提高核函数估计的抗差性,提高轨道确定精度.     

标准大气模型建立映射函数的可靠性讨论

随着新空间技术观测精度的不断提高，大气传播误差的研究已经成为改进观测精度的主要途径之一．为了提高大气延迟改正映射函数的计算精度，在大气剖面的选取上，近年来已经开始从过去的模型大气，逐渐地向实测大气转变．结合个别具有代表性的探空气球站观测资料，比较用标准大气模型建立的映射函数与探空气球资料路径积分的结果，研究用标准大气模型建立映射函数的可靠性，并简单讨论在映射函数中地球物理参数选择的若干问题．     

卫星圆轨道假设对GPS无线电掩星反演地球大气参数的影响

给出GPS无线电掩星反演地球大气参数过程中计算大气折射角的解析表达式，以圆轨道假设下的大气折射角计算值为先验约束，采用迭代法对不引入圆轨道假设情况的大气折射角进行归算，在此基础，利用反演方法得到了引入和不引入圆轨道假定两种情况下大气参数（气压和温度）的差分序列，结果表明：卫星圆轨道假设对GPS无线电掩星反演大气参数的影响，在气压方面为1mbar左右，而在气温方面为1K左右，这一结果支持了目前无线电掩星定性误差估计研究中通常引入卫星圆轨道假设这个近似处理方法的合理性，同时也表明：若在高精度反演地球大气参数时，摒弃圆轨道是必要的。     

太阳光压模型中面质比误差对IGSO卫星轨道预报的影响分析

太阳光压是影响高轨卫星轨道精密确定的主要因子之一,这种摄动的有效模制将进一步改进卫星轨道的预报精度.主要对太阳光压模型中面质比误差对地球倾斜同步轨道卫星轨道预报的影响进行了分析.20％面质比参数标定误差对地球倾斜同步轨道卫星位置预报影响仿真结果显示:一天内前16h,x、z分量的预报误差幅度相对较小,y分量误差相对较大;一天内最后8h,x、y、z各分量误差发散明显,但z分量的误差发散程度较大.20％面质比参数标定误差对地球倾斜同步轨道卫星速度预报影响仿真结果显示,一天内,x、y、z各分量的预报误差幅度不超过1 mm/s.     

大气模式动态测定的研究

利用12万组大气阻力资料，对DTM－1994模式进行改造，获得了一个新的大气模式，该模式的特点是：1．利用2阶周日峰效应，代替了原来模式中的复杂的周日效应表达式，减少了模式参数（少于50个），并使模式参数均具有明确的物理意义，2．分清了模式的主要参数和次要参数，在主要参数中，又分清了利用了阻力资料可以改进的参数和可能改不好的参数．3．与MSIS－1990和DTM－1994模式相比，其互差可以被接受，说明使用卫星阻力资料可以进行大气模式动态改正，不仅能测定大气总密度，并且能测定大气的分密度，4．与卫星轨道相比较，改进有显优于MSIS－1990模式，在120km轨道附近，改进模式密度比MSIS－1990模式大10％，同时我们在卫星陨落期预报中发现，MSIS－1990模式密度比实际大气密度小9％，这说明改进模式的密度与实际大气的密度基本接近。     

2.16m望远镜红外自适应光学系统的误差和性能分析

在自适应光学系统中，波前探测器的噪声、未完全补偿湍流所引起的误差以及变形镜的拟合误差是主要的误差源．本文针对已经建立的2．16m望远镜红外自适应光学系统，从伺服控制系统的角度分析了该系统的闭环噪声、大气湍流引起的误差以及该系统的闭环总体误差．该系统的闭环总体误差是光强及系统闭环带宽的函数．本文还分析了该系统的有效性以及对大气湍流不同改善程度情况下光强与闭环带宽的关系．并在此基础上给出了该系统的最佳带宽选取及系统的极限工作星等．     

基于误差发散规律的低轨卫星大气阻力系数计算方法

低轨卫星轨道预报精度受到大气模型和大气阻力系数精度的制约,给一些高精度的空间和航天任务带来不利影响.提出了一种基于沿迹方向误差发散规律的大气阻力系数计算新方法.首先通过理论推导给出低轨卫星轨道预报中沿迹误差发散的分析表达式,定量描述初值误差和模型误差对沿迹误差的综合影响;提出利用定轨段的基本信息,优选预报段所采用的阻力系数,抑制沿迹误差的发散速率,从而降低沿迹方向预报误差的最大值,提高短期预报精度.以400 km附近的GRACE-A卫星的全弧段星载GPS高精度资料为基础,检验了方法的精度和成功率.结果表明:相对于传统的定轨预报方法,新方法能提高24 h短期预报精度约45%,成功率约71%,总体有效率约86%;方法对低、中、高等3种太阳辐射水平均有效,对于中低等级的地磁扰动也有效,具备较好的应用价值.     

一种估计观测资料动态误差的方法

给出一种较好的观测资料动态误差估计的方法：单圈改进法，该方法从轨道理论出发，有明确的物理背景，避免了最小二乘拟合阶数和Vondrak平滑法平滑因子不确定性，较为准确地估计了观测资料的动态误差．另外该方法能够反映观测资料的不正常的跳动，对准确地评估观测仪器的性能，进一步改进观测仪器是有益处的．     

《大气一号》气球卫星轨道倾角变化分析

引起《大气一号》两颗气球卫星（ＤＱ－１Ａ和ＤＱ－１Ｂ）轨道倾角变化的摄动因素主要是太阳光压摄动、大气旋转和日月引力摄动。太阳光压摄动引起气球卫星轨道倾角增大，平均每天变化约０．００１７，大气旋转引起轨道倾角减小，平均每天变化不到０．０００１，但随着高度下降，变化量亦增大，陨落前达０．００２。本文根据卫星轨道摄动理论，给出气球卫星轨道倾角变化的一种定量分析方法，得到的分析结果为：（１）由太阳光压摄动     

GPS定轨中的太阳辐射压模型

对于GPS这样的高轨卫星轨道的确定,最大的误差源为太阳辐射压摄动．近年来IGS各个数据处理中心提供的GPS星历精度越来越高,其中很重要的一个因素就是太阳辐射压摄动模型的不断完善．详细阐述了目前主要的7种太阳辐射压摄动模型后,给出了各种光压摄动模型的计算模型,并利用不同的摄动模型积分卫星轨道,得到不同模型在GPS卫星轨道积分中的精度．结果表明,Bern大学提供的3种模型对太阳辐射压的模拟较为准确,相对于其他4种模型,由其得到的GPS轨道精度有将近一个量级的提高．     

Electron reflectometry in the martian atmosphere

The technique of electron reflectometry, a method for remote estimation of planetary magnetic fields, is expanded from its original use of mapping crustal magnetic fields at the Moon to achieving the same purpose at Mars, where the presence of a substantial atmosphere complicates matters considerably. The motion of solar wind electrons, incident on the martian atmosphere, is considered in detail, taking account of the following effects: the electrons' helical paths around the magnetic field lines to which they are bound, the magnetic mirror force they experience due to converging field lines in the vicinity of crustal magnetic anomalies, their acceleration/deceleration by electrostatic potentials, their interactions with thermal plasma, their drifts due to magnetic field line curvature and perpendicular electric fields and their scattering off, and loss of energy through a number of different processes to, atmospheric neutrals. A theoretical framework is thus developed for modeling electron pitch angle distributions expected when a spacecraft is on a magnetic field line which is connected to both the martian crust and the interplanetary magnetic field. This framework, along with measured pitch angle distributions from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Magnetometer/Electron Reflectometer (MAG/ER) experiment, can be used to remotely measure crustal magnetic field magnitudes and atmospheric neutral densities at ∼180 km above the martian datum, as well as estimate average parallel electric fields between 200 and 400 km altitude. Detailed analysis and full results, concerning the crustal magnetic field and upper thermospheric density of Mars, are left to two companion papers.     

对称模式下的CHAMP弯曲角掩星数据同化

简单介绍了无线电掩星技术探测行星大气的发展史,列举了该技术中存在的若干问题。从 Eyre提出的统计学的最优估计反演方法,比较了用相位、弯曲角和折射率作为同化因子时出现的问题和各自的优缺点。对弯曲角同化因子,以欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)资料为背景场,运用一维变分技术,进行CHAMP掩星观测资料变分同化反演,从而获得水汽和温度剖面。将反演获得的气象剖面与非同化的剖面作比较,并且采用相应的探空气球资料作为验证,可以看出变分同化技术比传统的标准反演技术反演误差小。证实掩星数据资料的一维变分同化技术可以改进目前的数值天气预报模式。     

Mass density of the upper atmosphere derived from Starlette’s Precise Orbit Determination with Satellite Laser Ranging

The atmospheric mass density of the upper atmosphere from the spherical Starlette satellite’s Precise Orbit Determination is first derived with Satellite Laser Ranging measurements at 815 to 1115 km during strong solar and geomagnetic activities. Starlette’s orbit is determined using the improved orbit determination techniques combining optimum parameters with a precise empirical drag application to a gravity field. MSIS-86 and NRLMSISE-00 atmospheric density models are compared with the Starlette drag-derived atmospheric density of the upper atmosphere. It is found that the variation in the Starlette’s drag coefficient above 800 km corresponds well with the level of geomagnetic activity. This represents that the satellite orbit is mainly perturbed by the Joule heating from geomagnetic activity at the upper atmosphere. This result concludes that MSIS empirical models strongly underestimate the mass density of the upper atmosphere as compared to the Starlette drag-derived atmospheric density during the geomagnetic storms. We suggest that the atmospheric density models should be analyzed with higher altitude acceleration data for a better understanding of long-term solar and geomagnetic effects.     

Density models for the upper atmosphere

Modeling the effects of atmospheric drag is one of the more important problems associated with the determination of the orbit of a near-earth satellite. Errors in the drag model can lead to significant errors in the determination and prediction of the satellite motion. The uncertainty in the drag acceleration can be attributed to three separate effects: (a) errors in the atmospheric density model, (b) errors in the ballistic coefficient, and (c) errors in the satellite relative velocity. In a number of contemporary satellite missions, the requirements for performing the orbit determination and predictions in near real-time has placed an emphasis on density model computation time as well as the model accuracy. In this investigation, a comparison is made of three contemporary atmospheric density models which are candidates for meeting the current orbit computation requirements. The models considered are the analytic Jacchia-Roberts model, the modified Harris-Priester model, and the USSR Cosmos satellite derived density model. The computational characteristics of each of the models are compared and a modification to the modified Harris-Priester model is proposed which improves its ability to represent the diurnal variation in the atmospheric density.This investigation was supported by the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center under contract NAS5-20946 and Contract NSG 5154.     

Huygens probe entry trajectory and attitude estimated simultaneously with Titan atmospheric structure by Kalman filtering

Space probes entering planetary atmospheres are used for in situ study of their physical structures. During the entry phase aerodynamic forces exerted on the probe depend on atmospheric density. As a consequence accelerations measured by on-board sensors can be used to derive probe trajectory as well as atmospheric density, pressure and temperature profiles. In this work acceleration data acquired by the Huygens Atmospheric Structure Instrument (HASI) have been used to reconstruct the probe trajectory and the Titan's atmospheric structure from down to of altitude. An accurate six degree of freedom model of Huygens during the entry phase has been developed and a new reconstruction technique based on Kalman filtering is presented. This technique estimates simultaneously the probe trajectory, the attitude profile consistent with measured data and the atmospheric density, pressure and temperature.     

Evidence for condensed-phase methane enhancement over Xanadu on Titan

We present evidence for condensed-phase methane precipitation near Xanadu using nine nights of observations from the SINFONI integral-field spectrograph at the Very Large Telescope and imaging analysis with empirical surface subtraction. Radiative transfer models are used to support the imaging technique by simulating the spectrometer datacubes and testing for variations in both the surface reflectivity spectrum and atmospheric opacity. We use the models and observations together to argue against artifacts that may arise in the image analysis. High phase angle observations from Cassini/VIMS are used to test against surface scattering artifacts that may be confused with sources of atmospheric opacity. Although changes in the surface reflectivity spectrum can reproduce observations from a particular viewing geometry on a given night, multiple observations are best modeled by condensed-phase methane opacity near the surface. These observations and modeling indicate that the condensed-phase methane opacity observed with this technique occurs predominantly near Xanadu and is most likely due to precipitation.     

First ever in situ observations of Venus’ polar upper atmosphere density using the tracking data of the Venus Express Atmospheric Drag Experiment (VExADE)

On its highly elliptical 24 h orbit around Venus, the Venus Express (VEX) spacecraft briefly reaches a periapsis altitude of nominally 250 km. Recently, however, dedicated and intense radio tracking campaigns have taken place in August 2008, October 2009, February and April 2010, for which the periapsis altitude was lowered to the 186–176 km altitude range in order to be able to probe the upper atmosphere of Venus above the North Pole for the first time ever in situ. As the spacecraft experiences atmospheric drag, its trajectory is measurably perturbed during the periapsis pass, allowing us to infer total atmospheric mass density at the periapsis altitude. A Precise Orbit Determination (POD) of the VEX motion is performed through an iterative least-squares fitting process to the Doppler tracking data, acquired by the VEX radioscience experiment (VeRa). The drag acceleration is modelled using an initial atmospheric density model (VTS3 model, Hedin, A.E., Niemann, H.B., Kasprzak, W.T., Seiff, A. [1983]. J. Geophys. Res. 88, 73–83). A scale factor of the drag acceleration is estimated for each periapsis pass, which scales Hedin’s density model in order to best fit the radio tracking data. Reliable density scale factors have been obtained for 10 passes mainly from the second (October 2009) and third (April 2010) VExADE campaigns, which indicate a lower density by a factor of about 1.8 than Hedin’s model predicts. These first ever in situ polar density measurements at solar minimum have allowed us to construct a diffusive equilibrium density model for Venus’ thermosphere, constrained in the lower thermosphere primarily by SPICAV-SOIR measurements and above 175 km by the VExADE drag measurements (Müller-Wodarg et al., in preparation). The preliminary results of the VExADE campaigns show that it is possible to obtain with the POD technique reliable estimates of Venus’ upper atmosphere densities at an altitude of around 175 km. Future VExADE campaigns will benefit from the planned further lowering of VEX pericenter altitude to below 170 km.     

Atmospheric densities derived from CHAMP/STAR accelerometer observations

The satellite CHAMP carries the accelerometer STAR in its payload and thanks to the GPS and SLR tracking systems accurate orbit positions can be computed. Total atmospheric density values can be retrieved from the STAR measurements, with an absolute uncertainty of 10-15%, under the condition that an accurate radiative force model, satellite macro-model, and STAR instrumental calibration parameters are applied, and that the upper-atmosphere winds are less than . The STAR calibration parameters (i.e. a bias and a scale factor) of the tangential acceleration were accurately determined using an iterative method, which required the estimation of the gravity field coefficients in several iterations, the first result of which was the EIGEN-1S (Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (14) (2002) 10.1029) gravity field solution. The procedure to derive atmospheric density values is as follows: (1) a reduced-dynamic CHAMP orbit is computed, the positions of which are used as pseudo-observations, for reference purposes; (2) a dynamic CHAMP orbit is fitted to the pseudo-observations using calibrated STAR measurements, which are saved in a data file containing all necessary information to derive density values; (3) the data file is used to compute density values at each orbit integration step, for which accurate terrestrial coordinates are available. This procedure was applied to 415 days of data over a total period of 21 months, yielding 1.2 million useful observations. The model predictions of DTM-2000 (EGS XXV General Assembly, Nice, France), DTM-94 (J. Geod. 72 (1998) 161) and MSIS-86 (J. Geophys. Res. 92 (1987) 4649) were evaluated by analysing the density ratios (i.e. “observed” to “computed” ratio) globally, and as functions of solar activity, geographical position and season. The global mean of the density ratios showed that the models underestimate density by 10-20%, with an rms of 16-20%. The binning as a function of local time revealed that the diurnal and semi-diurnal components are too strong in the DTM models, while all three models model the latitudinal gradient inaccurately. Using DTM-2000 as a priori, certain model coefficients were re-estimated using the STAR-derived densities, yielding the DTM-STAR test model. The mean and rms of the global density ratios of this preliminary model are 1.00 and 15%, respectively, while the tidal and latitudinal modelling errors become small. This test model is only representative of high solar activity conditions, while the seasonal effect is probably not estimated accurately due to correlation with the solar activity effect. At least one more year of data is required to separate the seasonal effect from the solar activity effect, and data taken under low solar activity conditions must also be assimilated to construct a model representative under all circumstances.     

Connecting atmospheric science and atmospheric models for aerocapture at Titan and the outer planets

Many atmospheric measurement systems, such as the sounding instruments on Voyager, gather atmospheric information in the form of temperature versus pressure level. In these terms, there is considerable consistency among the mean atmospheric profiles of the outer planets Jupiter through Neptune, including Titan. On a given planet or on Titan, the range of variability of temperature versus pressure level due to seasonal, latitudinal, and diurnal variations is also not large. However, many engineering needs for atmospheric models relate not to temperature versus pressure level but atmospheric density versus geometric altitude. This need is especially true for design and analysis of aerocapture systems. Drag force available for aerocapture is directly proportional to atmospheric density. Available aerocapture “corridor width” (allowable range of atmospheric entry angle) also depends on height rate of change of atmospheric density, as characterized by density scale height. Characteristics of hydrostatics and the gas law equation mean that relatively small systematic differences in temperature versus pressure profiles can integrate at high altitudes to very large differences in density versus altitude profiles. Thus, a given periapsis density required to accomplish successful aerocapture can occur at substantially different altitudes (∼150-300 km) on the various outer planets, and significantly different density scale heights (∼20-50 km) can occur at these periapsis altitudes. This paper will illustrate these effects and discuss implications for improvements in atmospheric measurements to yield significant impact on design of aerocapture systems for future missions to Titan and the outer planets. Relatively small-scale atmospheric perturbations, such as gravity waves, tides, and other atmospheric variations can also have significant effect on design details for aerocapture guidance and control systems. This paper will discuss benefits that would result from improved understanding of Titan and outer planetary atmospheric perturbation characteristics. Details of recent engineering-level atmospheric models for Titan and Neptune will be presented, and effects of present and future levels of atmospheric uncertainty and variability characteristics will be examined.