Summary of a 4-Year Fog Field Study in Northern Nanjing, Part 1: Fog Boundary Layer

Comprehensive fog field observations were conducted during the winters of 2006–2009 at the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology to study the macro and micro-physical structures and the physical–chemical processes of dense fogs in the area. The observations included features of the fog boundary layer, characteristics of fog water, the particle spectrum, the chemical composition of atmospheric aerosols, radiation and heat components, turbulence, meteorological elements (air temperature, pressure, wind speed, wind direction), and environmental monitoring. The fogs observed were divided into four types: radiation fog, advection–radiation fog, advection fog, and precipitation fog, according to the mechanisms and primary factors of the fog processes. Fog boundary-layer structures of different types and their corresponding characteristics were then studied. Fog boundary-layer features, temperature structures, wind fields, and fog maintenance are discussed. The results show that radiation fog had remarkable diurnal variation and formed mostly at sunset or midnight, and lifted after sunrise or at noon, and that advection–radiation fog and advection fog were of very long duration. Extremely dense fogs occurred only in radiation-related cases. Inversion in radiation fog was short-lived, disappearing 1 or 2 hours after sunrise or at noon, faster than that in advection–radiation fog. When wind direction reversed from easterly to westerly or from southerly to northerly, the fog became an extremely dense fog. Low-level jet at times impeded fog development, whereas at other times it encouraged fog continuance. The deep inversion was merely an essential condition for a thick fog layer; sufficient vapor supply was advantageous to the formation and maintenance of a deep fog layer.     

Simulating Z–LWC Relations in Natural Fogs with Radiative Transfer Calculations for Future Application to a Cloud Radar Profiler

The vertical distribution of liquid water content (LWC) in natural fog and low stratus is a crucial variable in many applications, e.g. the development of satellite based retrievals of ground fog. Unfortunately, there is very little data concerning fog LWC-profiles, mainly due to the lack of suitable operational instrumentation. A novel ground-based 94?GHz FMCW cloud radar could fill this gap if radar reflectivity Z could be converted to LWC by using appropriate Z–LWC relations. However, this relation strongly depends on drop size distribution (DSD) and is hardly known for natural fog types. In this sensitivity study, the influence of the DSD on the Z–LWC relation in different types and life cycle stages of natural fogs is analyzed using a radiative transfer code (RTC) and published fog drop size distributions. It could be shown that there is a direct but nonlinear relationship between LWC and radar reflectivity. The proportionality factor of the Z–LWC equation in particular reveals specific ranges for the different life cycle stages. If a proper classification of fog life cycle in the field is possible, the results could be used to properly convert Z to LWC.     

Forecast of Low Visibility and Fog from NCEP: Current Status and Efforts

Based on the visibility analysis data during November 2009 through April 2010 over North America from the Aviation Digital Database Service (ADDS), the performance of low visibility/fog predictions from the current operational 12?km-NAM, 13?km-RUC and 32?km-WRF-NMM models at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) was evaluated. The evaluation shows that the performance of the low visibility/fog forecasts from these models is still poor in comparison to those of precipitation forecasts from the same models. In order to improve the skill of the low visibility/fog prediction, three efforts have been made at NCEP, including application of a rule-based fog detection scheme, extension of the NCEP Short Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF) to fog ensemble probabilistic forecasts, and a combination of these two applications. How to apply these techniques in fog prediction is described and evaluated with the same visibility analysis data over the same period of time. The evaluation results demonstrate that using the multi-rule-based fog detection scheme significantly improves the fog forecast skill for all three models relative to visibility-diagnosed fog prediction, and with a combination of both rule-based fog detection and the ensemble technique, the performance skill of fog forecasting can be further raised.     

A Comparison Study Between Spring and Summer Fogs in the Yellow Sea-Observations and Mechanisms

New observations from buoys and soundings reveal the discrepancies in air–sea interface and in vertical structures between spring (April to May) and summer (July) fogs in the Yellow Sea. Spring fogs are shallow with a robust temperature inversion, dry layer and cold phase (surface air temperature or SAT is lower than sea surface temperature or SST); summer fogs are deep with weaker stability, indistinct fog top and warm phase (SAT?>?SST). Along with numerical simulations, conceptual models for the mechanisms of temperature inversion are suggested. The land–sea contrast is responsible for the robust temperature inversion in spring, and the deep southerlies derived from the east Asian summer monsoon and the adiabatic sinking from the western Pacific subtropical high contributes to the weaker inversion in summer. The dry layer above the sea fog top intensifies the longwave radiative cooling effect to lead to the cold phase in spring fogs. The radiative cooling is weaker in summer fogs resulting in SAT?>?SST.     

Fog Simulations Based on Multi-Model System: A Feasibility Study

Accurate forecasts of fog and visibility are very important to air and high way traffic, and are still a big challenge. A 1D fog model (PAFOG) is coupled to MM5 by obtaining the initial and boundary conditions (IC/BC) and some other necessary input parameters from MM5. Thus, PAFOG can be run for any area of interest. On the other hand, MM5 itself can be used to simulate fog events over a large domain. This paper presents evaluations of the fog predictability of these two systems for December of 2006 and December of 2007, with nine regional fog events observed in a field experiment, as well as over a large domain in eastern China. Among the simulations of the nine fog events by the two systems, two cases were investigated in detail. Daily results of ground level meteorology were validated against the routine observations at the CMA observational network. Daily fog occurrences for the two study periods was validated in Nanjing. General performance of the two models for the nine fog cases are presented by comparing with routine and field observational data. The results of MM5 and PAFOG for two typical fog cases are verified in detail against field observations. The verifications demonstrated that all methods tended to overestimate fog occurrence, especially for near-fog cases. In terms of TS/ETS, the LWC-only threshold with MM5 showed the best performance, while PAFOG showed the worst. MM5 performed better for advection–radiation fog than for radiation fog, and PAFOG could be an alternative tool for forecasting radiation fogs. PAFOG did show advantages over MM5 on the fog dissipation time. The performance of PAFOG highly depended on the quality of MM5 output. The sensitive runs of PAFOG with different IC/BC showed the capability of using MM5 output to run the 1D model and the high sensitivity of PAFOG on cloud cover. Future works should intensify the study of how to improve the quality of input data (e.g. cloud cover, advection, large scale subsidence) for the 1D model, particularly how to eliminate near-fog case in fog forecasting.     

A Comparative Study of Radiation Fog and Quasi-Fog Formation Processes During the ParisFog Field Experiment 2007

Fog is an atmospheric phenomenon that has important environmental consequences related to visibility, air quality and climate change on local and regional scales. The formation of radiation fog results from a complex balance between surface radiative cooling, turbulent mixing in the surface layer, aerosol growth by deliquescence and activation of fog droplets. During the ParisFog field experiment, out of 16 events forecasted for radiation fog, activated fog materialized in seven events, while in five other events the visibility dropped to 1–2 km but haze particle size remained below the critical size of activation. To better understand the conditions that lead to or do not lead to sustained fog droplet activation, we performed a comparative study of dynamic, thermal, radiative and microphysical processes occurring between sunset and fog (or quasi-fog) onset. We selected two radiation fog events and two quasi-radiation fog events that occurred under similar large-scale conditions for this comparative study. We identified that aerosol growth by deliquescence and droplet activation actually occurred in both quasi-fog events, but only during <1 h. Based on ParisFog measurements, we found that the main factors limiting sustained activation of droplets at fog onset in the Paris metropolitan area are (1) lack of mixing in the surface layer (typically wind speed <0.5 ms^?1), (2) relative humidity exceeding 90 % throughout the residual layer, (3) low cooling rate in the surface layer (typically less than ?1 °C per hour on average) due to weak radiative cooling (0 to ?30 Wm^?2) and near zero sensible heat fluxes, and (4) a combination of the three factors listed above during the critical phase of droplet activation preventing the transfer of cooling from the surface to the liquid layer. In addition, we found some evidence of contrasted aerosol growth by deliquescence under high relative humidity conditions in the four events, possibly associated with the chemical nature of the aerosols, which could be another factor impacting droplet activation.     

Radiation Fog Prediction Using a Simple Numerical Model

—A simple one-dimensional numerical-analytical model was developed by Meyer and Rao (1995) to predict the onset of radiation fog. The model computes radiative cooling and turbulent diffusion of heat and vapor through the lower boundary layer and produces heat and vapor fluxes at the soil–atmosphere interface. The model is designed for Air Force forecasters who have access to a personal computer, an early evening surface observation of the dry bulb and dewpoint temperature, wind speed, the lapse rate in the upper boundary layer, and the previous 24-h precipitation amount. These initial data are used to predict the diurnal variation of the dry bulb and dewpoint temperatures at 10 m above the surface. In accordance with conventional synoptic observing practices, fog is defined as a restriction of the surface visibility generally to less than 1000 m. Fog is assumed to occur in the model predictions when the dewpoint depression falls to less than 1°C. Observations, from several Air Force bases for selected days when fog was observed to occur, were used to test the model. The present model with default parameters appears to predict the onset of fog slightly ahead of its occurrence. Better verification results are expected when site-relevant parameters are used in model predictions.     

Low Visibility Formation and Forecasting on the Northern Coast of Brazil

Visibility analysis and forecast at the Maceio International Airport in the Brazilian Northeast (NEB) was the principal goal of this investigation. Surface meteorological data of the Maceio International Airport were used for low visibility frequency study. Low visibility in NEB was provoked more frequently by light fog (LF) formation (1,098 or 92 h month^?1 on average). Haze and fog were very rare (81 h and one event per year, respectively on average). Light fog with a visibility less than 2 km usually was detected together with rain or drizzle. Low visibility was observed more frequently at night and during the rainy season. Applications of the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model for light fog forecast were tested. Thermodynamic processes were studied by vertical profile, elaborated by: (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data for Maceio (because of some radiosonde absence) and (2) forecast vertical temperature and humidity profiles were produced, using Air Parcels Trajectories of the HYSPLIT model at the pattern levels. The synoptic situations before and during low visibility phenomena were analyzed using different products of NCEP reanalysis, the high resolution (10 km) ETA model and infrared satellite images. Wave disturbance in the trade winds field, localized on the northwest periphery of the South Atlantic subtropical High, usually accompanied the phenomena. A humidity advection, weak ascendant movement and thermal inversion absence at the low levels were created by these waves. The middle level’s descendent movement provoked the humidity accumulation at levels below. Satisfactory results of the HYSPLIT model applications for light fog forecast were obtained with 12 h antecedence. In particular, stable level forecast by the ETA model was forecast satisfactorily with 12 h antecedence; vertical movements were predicted better with up to 48 h antecedence. The PSU/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5) and PAFOG models were tested for analysis and forecast of an intensive fog event. Intensive fog provoked a fatal accident of a small airplane near the Maceio Airport in 2007. These fog formation processes were studied by NCEP reanalysis data, the high resolution regional model MM5, and satellite and radar data. Fog formation was simulated by PAFOG model and satisfactory results were obtained with 10 h antecedence.     

Small ion concentrations in and near clouds and fogs

Summary A mobile small ion and condensation nuclei laboratory was used to study small ion concentrations in and near orographic clouds, low cloud bases, and fogs. It was found that these areas of diminished visibility exist in a conductivity well, characterized by a small ion concentration of less than 200 small ions per cm³, surrounded by an area of increasing small ion concentration, until the concentration exceeds 400 small ions per cm³ 500 to 1000 feet below the base of the cloud. It was also observed that small ion concentration increases during the dissipation of fog, and oscillates with the passage of large patches of drifting fog.     

Quality Assessment of the Cobel-Isba Numerical Forecast System of Fog and Low Clouds

Short-term forecasting of fog is a difficult issue which can have a large societal impact. Fog appears in the surface boundary layer and is driven by the interactions between land surface and the lower layers of the atmosphere. These interactions are still not well parameterized in current operational NWP models, and a new methodology based on local observations, an adaptive assimilation scheme and a local numerical model is tested. The proposed numerical forecast method of foggy conditions has been run during three years at Paris-CdG international airport. This test over a long-time period allows an in-depth evaluation of the forecast quality. This study demonstrates that detailed 1-D models, including detailed physical parameterizations and high vertical resolution, can reasonably represent the major features of the life cycle of fog (onset, development and dissipation) up to +6 h. The error on the forecast onset and burn-off time is typically 1 h. The major weakness of the methodology is related to the evolution of low clouds (stratus lowering). Even if the occurrence of fog is well forecasted, the value of the horizontal visibility is only crudely forecasted. Improvements in the microphysical parameterization and in the translation algorithm converting NWP prognostic variables into a corresponding horizontal visibility seems necessary to accurately forecast the value of the visibility.     

Implementation of a Single-Column Model for Fog and Low Cloud Forecasting at Central-Spanish Airports

Operations at Central-Spanish airports are often, especially in winter, affected by visibility reduction. The Instituto Nacional de Meteorología (INM), the Spanish Weather Service, has developed a single-column model (SCM) in order to improve short-term forecasts of fog, visibility and low-clouds. The SCM, called H1D, is a one-dimensional version of the HIRLAM limited-area model. It is operationally run for three airports in the region: Madrid-Barajas, Almagro and Albacete-Los Llanos. Since SCMs cannot deal with horizontal heterogeneity, the terms that depend on the horizontal structure of the atmosphere are estimated from the outputs of the three-dimensional (3-D) model and introduced into the SCM as external forcings. The systematic analysis of the meteorological situations has evidenced the existence of a close relationship between fog formation and the presence of drainage winds in the region. Since the 3-D model docs not have the necessary resolution to correctly simulate the main features of the drainage flow caused by the complex topography in the proximity of Madrid-Barajas, it cannot provide the SCM with the correct forcings. This problem has been partially overcome through the introduction of a module that, under certain conditions, substitutes the values computed from the 3-D model outputs by others that are based on a conceptual model of the phenomenon and have been empirically derived from climatological knowledge. This module improves the H1D verification scores for the basic meteorological variables—wind, temperature and humidity—and reduces the false alarm rate in fog forecast.     

Analysis of long-term variations of fog and haze in China in recent 50 years and their relations with atmospheric humidity

Our analysis of fog and haze observations from the surface weather stations in China in recent 50 years(from 1961 to 2011)shows that the number of fog days has experienced two-stage variations,with an increasing trend before 1980 and a decreasing trend after 1990.Especially,an obvious decreasing trend after 1990 can be clearly seen,which is consistent with the decreasing trend of the surface relative humidity.However,the number of haze days has demonstrated an increasing trend.As such,the role of reduction of atmospheric relative humidity in the transition process from fog into haze has been further investigated.It is estimated that the mean relative humidity of haze days is about 69%,lower than previously estimated,which implies that it is more difficult for the haze particles to transform into fog drops.This is possibly one of the major environmental factors leading to the reduction of number of fog days.The threshold of the relative humidity for transition from fog into haze is about82%,also lower than previously estimated.Thus,the reduction of the surface relative humidity in China mainly due to the increase of the surface temperature and the saturation specific humidity may exert an obvious impact on the environmental conditions for the formations of fog and haze.In addition,our investigation of the relationship between haze and visibility reveals that with the increase of haze days,the visibility has declined markedly.Since 1961,the mean visibility has dropped from 4–10to 2–4 km,about a half of the previous horizontal distance of visibility.     

A novel method for distinguishing fog and haze based on PM2.5, visibility,and relative humidity

Haze and fog are both low visibility events, but with different physical properties. Haze is caused by the increase of aerosol loading or the hygroscopic growth of aerosol at high relative humidity, whereas visibility degradation in fog is due to the light scattering of fog droplets, which are transited from aerosols via activation. Based on the difference of physical properties between haze and fog, this study presents a novel method to distinguish haze and fog using real time measurements of PM2.5, visibility, and relative humidity. In this method, a criterion can be developed based on the local historical data of particle number size distributions and aerosol hygroscopicity. Low visibility events can be classified into haze and fog according to this criterion.     

An Experimental High-Resolution Forecast System During the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games

Environment Canada ran an experimental numerical weather prediction (NWP) system during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, consisting of nested high-resolution (down to 1-km horizontal grid-spacing) configurations of the GEM–LAM model, with improved geophysical fields, cloud microphysics and radiative transfer schemes, and several new diagnostic products such as density of falling snow, visibility, and peak wind gust strength. The performance of this experimental NWP system has been evaluated in these winter conditions over complex terrain using the enhanced mesoscale observing network in place during the Olympics. As compared to the forecasts from the operational regional 15-km GEM model, objective verification generally indicated significant added value of the higher-resolution models for near-surface meteorological variables (wind speed, air temperature, and dewpoint temperature) with the 1-km model providing the best forecast accuracy. Appreciable errors were noted in all models for the forecasts of wind direction and humidity near the surface. Subjective assessment of several cases also indicated that the experimental Olympic system was skillful at forecasting meteorological phenomena at high-resolution, both spatially and temporally, and provided enhanced guidance to the Olympic forecasters in terms of better timing of precipitation phase change, squall line passage, wind flow channeling, and visibility reduction due to fog and snow.     

On ground-level visibilities in the Po-Valley during winter,and on their intercorrelations

Summary Results of intercorrelations between daily average visibilities, at 18 Observatories situated in the Po-Valley, indicate the existence there of several areas within which conditions of fog are similarly affected. The position of those areas reflects the influence of geographic and topographic factors on fogs which regularly recur, during the cold seasons, in that extensive part of Northern Italy.     

A Study of Fog Characteristics Using a Coupled WRF–COBEL Model Over Thessaloniki Airport, Greece

An attempt is made to couple the one dimensional COBEL-ISBA (Code de Brouillard à l’échelle Locale-Interactions Soil Biosphere Atmosphere) model with the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting)–ARW (Advanced Research WRF) numerical weather prediction model to study a fog event that formed on 20 January 2008 over Thessaloniki Airport, Greece. It is the first time that the coupling of COBEL and WRF models is achieved and applied to a fog event over an airport. At first, the performance of the integrated WRF–COBEL system is investigated, by validating it against the available surface observations. The temperature and humidity vertical profiles were used for initializing the model. The performance of WRF–COBEL is considered successful, since it realistically simulated the fog onset and dissipation better than the WRF alone. The COBEL’s sensitivity to initial conditions such as temperature and specific humidity perturbations was also tested. It is found that a small increase of temperature (~1°C) counteracts fog development and results in less fog density. On the other hand, a small decrease of temperature results in much denser fog formation. It is concluded that the integrated model approach for aviation applications can be useful to study fog impact on local traffic and aviation.     

Calculated and measured values of liquid water content in clean and polluted environments

The relationship between liquid water content (LWC) and visibility (VIS) in a fog was examined by a field measurement of LWC values at a clean location of the meteorological observatory Sodankylä (Finland) and in a polluted region at the meteorological observatory Mile?ovka (Czech Republic). Furthermore, the use of a simple regression fog model to determine LWC from VIS is examined by comparing well-known relationships with the measurement results. The results show that the verbal characterization of environment (clean, mild polluted, polluted) is insufficient to calculate the LWC values from visibility. It is necessary to establish an additional criterion based on quantitative fog characteristics or to determine the site-related equation from the previous LWC and VIS measurement.     

Visibility variations at Schiphol-Airport,Amsterdam

Summary Transmissometer records at Schiphol-Airport, Amsterdam have been analyzed to show the frequencies of visibility changes, in periods between 1 and 16 minutes, on occasions that the visibility is below 1000 metres for at least 30 minutes. Tables are presented for the frequencies of visibility changes in shallow and in deep fog, both for increasing and decreasing visibilities, with an initial visibility in the range of 60–1000 metres (the lower limit of this range is connected with the length of the transmissometer-baseline in use).In deep fog the probability of a visibility change surpassing 25 percent is about 1 percent after 1 minute and 20 percent after 16 minutes if the initial visibility is between 100 and 200 metres. The corresponding figures in shallow fog are 7 and 55 percent. If the initial visibility is between 200 and 400 metres, the corresponding figures in deep fog are 5 and 45 percent and in shallow fog 26 and 84 percent.     

北京首都机场的人工消雾及大气边界层特征的演变

在首都机场人工消雾作业过程中进行了大气边界层特征的观测,观测结果表明：用喷洒液氮进行人工消雾可以形成小面积降雪从而提高能见度,达到安全飞行的目的．人工消雾作业过程可影响小面积大气湍流特征,使湍流谱略偏离-5／3规律．人工消雾作业期间潜热通量明显大于作业期后．     

The Impact of Vertical Resolution in the Explicit Numerical Forecasting of Radiation Fog: A Case Study

Numerical experiments are performed with a comprehensive one-dimensional boundary layer/fog model to assess the impact of vertical resolution on explicit model forecasts of an observed fog layer. Two simulations were performed, one using a very high resolution and another with a vertical grid typical of current high-resolution mesoscale models. Both simulations were initialized with the same profiles, derived from observations from a fog field experiment. Significant differences in the onset and evolution of fog were found. The results obtained with the high-resolution simulation are in overall better agreement with available observations. The cooling rate before the appearance of fog is better represented, while the evolution of the liquid water content within the fog layer is more realistic. Fog formation is delayed in the low resolution simulation, and the water content in the fog layer shows large-amplitude oscillations. These results show that the numerical representation of key thermo-dynamical processes occurring in fog layers is significantly altered by the use of a grid with reduced vertical resolution.