四川泸定MS6.8级地震区湾东河流域泥石流活动性预测

2022年9月5日四川泸定县发生M_S 6.8级地震, 地震诱发大量同震崩滑体, 并导致湾东河断流。基于现场调查、影像解译和区域地质资料分析, 采用空间统计和水文计算的方法, 对湾东河流域同震崩滑体分布特征和潜在泥石流危险性进行了研究。结果表明: 湾东河流域内同震崩滑体主要分布在地震烈度Ⅸ度区, 规模以中小型为主, 主要沿沟道两侧展布, 尤其是单薄山脊两侧临空面发育密度较大, 距断层距离和坡度对其分布具有明显的控灾效应; 未来湾东河流域暴发溃决型泥石流的冲出量可能为同等触发条件下震前泥石流的约两倍。依此提出了加强流域内溃决型泥石流风险防范, 尽快通过综合监测预警获取泥石流发生的临界雨量值, 在泥石流防治工程设计中应充分考虑泥石流规模放大系数等防灾减灾建议, 为泸定地震后泥石流灾害防灾减灾提供科学参考。      

四川什邡干河沟泥石流发育特征及防治措施

干河沟为一老泥石流沟,曾于1996年8月暴发较大规模泥石流冲毁沟口红灯桥及木材厂。"5.12"地震后流域内新增大量松散物源,以崩滑体为主,主要集中于3~#沟,物源丰富,动储量约26×10~4m^3。该沟泥石流一次冲出固体物质量较大,大于2万m^2,规模大型。结合该沟泥石流的发育特征,提出了相关的防治措施及建议。     

川西红层地区泥石流特征研究——以德昌县群英村王家坡沟为例

2022年8月23日德昌县乐跃镇群英村王家坡沟暴发群发性泥石流灾害,导致群英村至太平村的乡道严重堵塞,乡道两侧的耕地及经济作物大面积受毁。为揭示此次群发性泥石流的发育规律,本文结合实地调查和遥感影像对王家坡泥石流的形成机制、动力学特征进行综合研究。研究结果表明：此次泥石流在短历时强降雨情况下,坡面入渗迅速形成地表径流聚集于沟道,水流沿程掏蚀、侧蚀沟道岸坡形成大量的沟道松散固体物质,泥石流规模呈放大趋势冲出沟口形成泥石流灾害。该泥石流沟松散堆积物动储量为1.21×104m3,主要分为沟道物源、崩滑物源、侵蚀物源3种物源类型,其中沟道物源占比最大;最后计算了不同暴雨频率条件下泥石流的流量以及冲击力,为王家坡泥石流灾害防治提供可靠的数据和相应的防治措施。     

基于机载LiDAR技术的泥石流物源侵蚀量定量评价研究

泥石流物源是形成泥石流的三大基本条件之一，物源侵蚀堆积变化量则是衡量泥石流规模和频率的重要指标，然而目前采用常规技术手段仍难以实现对物源侵蚀堆积变化的定量研究。针对这一问题，本文以西昌市邛海水厂后山冲沟泥石流为例，采用机载LiDAR技术建立了该流域雨季前后的高精度数字高程模型(DEM)，并基于此开展了泥石流物源侵蚀量定量评价研究。结果表明：邛海水厂后山冲沟流域总体过火面积达65%，流域内主要发育坡面堆积物源、崩滑堆积物源以及沟道堆积物源；两期次高精度DEM数据差分叠加可实现泥石流物源侵蚀量的估算，该沟雨季前后泥石流物源侵蚀减少量为12 209 m³，物源侵蚀变化呈分布区域广、数量多、散状发育的特点；泥石流物源的启动以坡面堆积物源侵蚀为主，侵蚀厚度多在0.5 m以内；邛海水厂后山冲沟泥石流在今后一段时间内将以高频泥石流为主。     

四川石棉简槽沟泥石流发育特征与减灾防灾初探

四川石棉县简槽沟为一条典型泥石流沟道,区域上具备泥石流形成的孕灾地质环境背景,流域内具备泥石流产生的地形地貌与物源聚集特征。简槽沟泥石流可分清水区、形成区、流通-堆积区3个区域。由于简槽沟泥石流形成是由形成区密集崩滑体提供并参与物质运移,以远程碎屑流的形式沿程堆积扩散并延伸至沟口,所以,流通区与堆积区不明显,与常规泥石流分区略有区别。通过流域物源调查,简槽沟物源为崩滑堆积物、沟道堆积物、坡面侵蚀物。流域内共有松散固体物质总量为13.784×10~4 m~3。可能参与泥石流的物源量约3.154×10~4 m~3,沟道两侧的崩滑堆积物为泥石流的主要补给物源,占泥石流活动量的86.7%。简槽沟泥石流为高频—暴雨—崩滑—沟谷型稀性泥石流、易发、活动性强、中型潜在危险性,进行工程治理是十分必要的和紧迫的。针对简槽沟泥石流物源集中且丰富、流通区不明显、堆积区建筑物密集、沟口过流断面狭窄的特点,工程治理以中游拦挡物源、下游排泄倒流的措施,并遵循以防为主、防治结合、综合治理的原则。     

四川石棉熊家沟泥石流形成机理与成灾特征分析

四川石棉熊家沟曾于2013年7月4日爆发泥石流,该次泥石流物源类型多样、形成机理复杂,并发生堵塞主河的次生灾害链,具有代表性。通过研究,本次泥石流是在强降雨条件下,以中上游沟道松散物为启动点、沿程下切拉槽、崩滑不断参与运动的一场由自然因素形成的地质灾害。泥石流形成因素分为强降雨、沟道物源启动、崩滑规模扩大3个方面。参与熊家沟泥石流启动汇集的物质来源为沟道物源和崩滑物源,其中,沟道物源量占总量的81.55%。物源补给以沟道松散物为主,崩滑直接提供物源量小分散。经过"7·04"灾害后,流域沟道淤积抬升,形成新的沟道松散物,为下次泥石流埋下了隐患。熊家沟泥石流的成灾模式类型多样,表现为淤积抬高、撞击冲毁、堵塞主河、淹没上游。通过堵河经验公式判别,"7·04"熊家沟泥石流的形成特征极易发生堵河,当地政府与防灾减灾部门应有的放矢做好地质灾害防治工作。     

九寨沟震区泥石流物源特征研究

基于九寨沟震区泥石流相关资料及现场调查,分析得出震区泥石流物源类型主要有崩滑型物源、沟道冲刷型物源、坡面侵蚀型物源,根据九寨沟震区泥石流物源启动与补给方式建立震后九寨沟震区泥石流物源启动模式。选取震区29处泥石流为样本,对九寨沟震区泥石流动储量及物源总量进行相关性统计分析,得出九寨沟震区泥石流动储量及物源总量比例关系统计方法。     

藏东红层地区断裂对泥石流物源的控制作用——以西藏贡觉县哇曲中游流域为例CSCD

哇曲为金沙江二级支流,位于藏东昌都红层地区贡觉县,流域中游为高山峡谷区,是县域内典型的降雨型泥石流集中发育区。该区泥石流在发育密度、规模、活动性等特征上均高于全县平均水平,且泥石流的发育表现出了与断裂的强烈相关性。基于现场调查,结合无人机航空摄影对哇曲流域泥石流发育特征和主要影响因素进行了探讨分析,得到以下结论:(1)哇曲中游集中发育19条小—中型降雨型泥石流,发育密度0.84条/km,远高于全县0.009条/km^(2)的平均水平;左岸泥石流在发育密度、流域面积、主沟长度、堆积体积等特征上均高于(大于)右岸,左右岸泥石流呈明显差异分布。(2)哇曲中游右岸泥石流物源以风化碎屑类物源为主,呈全沟域分布;左岸泥石流以崩滑物源和风化碎屑为主,集中分区在沟谷中上游,总量较右岸大,其中断层破碎带内物源量占比大,成为左岸泥石流的主要物源。(3)断裂是影响哇曲中游泥石流集中发育且呈现差异分布的最主要因素,主要体现在对物源条件的控制上。(4)断裂以改变岩体结构、控制地层分布、改变微地貌和地下水条件等方式控制泥石流物源条件,导致两岸泥石流物源形成速率和物源量明显不同,成为泥石流差异分布的根本原因。     

平武县石坎河小流域震后泥石流活动特征及工程防治建议

石坎河小流域位于汶川地震发震断裂-映秀—北川断裂带上,强震后流域内滑坡、泥石流等地质灾害显著增强。本文收集整理了震前、震后流域内地质灾害的数据资料,详细分析研究了流域内地质环境条件、震后9a内泥石流活动特征及其治理工程情况,在此基础上讨论其工程防治的最佳时机。通过研究得出:(1)石坎河流域支沟纵坡降大,主沟纵坡降相对较小,暴发多次泥石流灾害后支沟沟道多下切,主河道淤积严重,灾害叠加放大效应明显;(2)石坎河流域暴发多次泥石流灾害后河谷变宽,地形改变较大、物源减少明显,流域内暴发泥石流的规模逐渐减小,未来暴发的泥石流规模一般不会再超过2013年7月9日的泥石流规模;(3)石坎河流域泥石流工程防治最佳时机应为2013年7月9日泥石流灾害后。     

雅砻江上田镇沟泥石流特征及危险性研究

上田镇沟位于卡拉水电站坝址下游,地形坡度陡峻,高差大,汇水条件好,沟内固体松散物源丰富,容易引发泥石流。现场勘查将其物源条件概括为四类：沟床堆积物源、沟道两侧崩滑堆积物源、坡面侵蚀物源、人工弃渣物源。分析该区泥石流的形成条件和流体动力学参数,对泥石流的发展趋势和危险性进行预测和评价。结果表明,泥石流形成条件充分,处于发展期,危险性中等。研究成果为卡拉水电站建设中泥石流的防治工程提供依据。     

基于小流域的地震扰动区降雨型滑坡泥石流危险性评价方法

地震扰动区存在大量震裂松散坡体,在持续或者密集的降雨条件下极易转化为滑坡灾害。同时,滑坡又会给泥石流提供大量松散固体物质,增加泥石流的危险性。因此,在震区,灾害通常以"链"的形式出现,比单一灾种危害性大。为了更有效地对地质灾害危险性进行评价,笔者将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链,综合地加以分析和研究。选择5·12汶川大地震中受灾严重的都江堰市白沙河流域的17条泥石流沟作为研究区,建立滑坡-泥石流危险性评价耦合模型,研究24 h不同降雨量条件下小流域滑坡泥石流危险性的变化。耦合模型包括了坡体稳定性评价模型,水文模型及以泥石流规模、发生频率、流域面积、主沟长度、流域高差、切割密度、不稳定斜坡比为评价因子的泥石流危险性评价统计模型。研究结果表明:随着降雨量的增大,参与泥石流活动的松散物质方量持续增加,但当24 h降雨量超过200 mm后,泥石流沟的危险度等级不再发生变化;17条泥石流沟中4条为中危险度,12条为高危险度,1条为极高危险度。这说明研究区地质灾害问题相当严峻,在多雨季节存在泥石流群发的可能性,直接威胁到居住在泥石流沟附近的人民群众生命财产安全;因此,对于有直接危害对象的高危险度及其以上的泥石流沟,应该按照高等级设防标准进行工程治理及发布预警报。同时也说明,将滑坡、泥石流作为灾害链研究具必要性和可行性。     

Landslide and debris flow initiated characteristics after typhoon Morakot in Taiwan

Typhoon Morakot brought extreme rainfall and initiated numerous landslides and debris flows in southern Taiwan in August of 2009. The purpose of this study is to identify the extreme rainfall-induced landslide frequency-area distribution in the Laonong River Basin in southern Taiwan and debris flow-initiated conditions under rainfall. Results of the analysis show that debris flows were initiated under high cumulative rainfall and long rainfall duration or high rainfall intensity. The relationship of mean rainfall intensity and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high rainfall intensity in short rainfall duration conditions. The relationship of cumulative rainfall and duration threshold could reflect debris flow initiation characteristics under high cumulative rainfall in long rainfall duration. Defining rainfall events by estimating rainfall parameters with different methodologies could reveal variations among intermittent rainfall events for the benefit of issuing debris flow warnings. The exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution induced by Typhoon Morakot is lower than that induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake. The lower exponent of landslide frequency-area distribution can be attributed to the transportation and deposition areas of debris flow that are included in the landslide area. Climate change induced high rainfall intensity and long duration of precipitation, for example, Typhoon Morakot brought increased frequency of debris flow and created difficulty in issuing warnings from rainfall monitoring.     

汶川地震后四川省绵竹市清平乡文家沟泥石流灾害调查研究

在2008年5月12日汶川地震后的地震灾区暴发了许多泥石流灾害,其中以四川省绵竹市清平乡文家沟泥石流最为显著。文家沟原来不是泥石流沟,在汶川地震时由于滑坡形成的巨大的滑坡-碎屑流堆积体改变了文家沟的泥石流形成条件,在此后的3个雨季内,文家沟先后暴发了5次大规模和特大规模的泥石流灾害,其中以8.13文家沟泥石流规模和危害最大。8.13文家沟泥石流暴发时的总降雨量为227mm,泥石流持续时间约2.5h,泥石流总量约310×104m3;泥石流造成7人死亡,5人失踪,39人受伤,479户农房被掩埋,直接经济损失4.3亿元。5次大规模和特大规模的泥石流以及洪水仅带走了16%的可以很容易形成泥石流的滑坡-碎屑流堆积物,文家沟如再遭遇较大降雨还会暴发泥石流。即使在今后的雨季中暴发几次规模如8.13泥石流一样大的特大规模泥石流,文家沟在较大降雨下仍然可能暴发泥石流灾害,因此对文家沟泥石流的防治工作将是一个长期的工作。     

数量化理论在泥石流灾害预测预报中的应用--以吉林和龙市泥石流为例

和龙市地处长白山脉东北部,地质环境质量较差,区内常有泥石流、崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害发生。该市东城区具备形成泥石流的条件,泥石流发生频繁。2002年7月间,该市境内连降暴雨,日最大降雨量达69.8mm,导致多处暴发泥石流,造成较大灾害。文章根据东城区34条泥石流沟的调查资料,采用数量化理论对泥石流易发程度进行统计分析,建立了泥石流易发程度预测模型。计算获得的预测值与实测值相接近。     

和龙市东城区泥石流沟谷形态的非线形特征

和龙市地处长白山脉东北部,地质环境质量较差,区内常有泥石流、崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害发生。该市东城区具备形成泥石流的条件,泥石流发生频繁。文章根据东城区34条泥石流沟的实际调查资料,采用分形理论．研究了泥石流沟谷形态的分形特征及其在不同观察尺度下分维值的变化特征。这种非线形关系在一定程度上揭示了该区泥石流沟谷演变的非均匀性和自相似性。     

Landslides and Rainfall Characteristics Analysis in Taipei City during the Typhoon Nari Event

The severe Typhoon Nari ended on September 15, 2001 with a high-intensity and high-accumulation storm that dumped up to 1249 mm of rain in Taipei City, Taiwan. The high-intensity and high-accumulation event caused flooding and triggered more than 400 soils slips and debris flows and large, complex landslides. Detailed information on 63 events, including rainfall, initiation time, and magnitude of landslides were documented and analyzed to identify the landslides and rainfall characteristic in Taipei City during Typhoon Nari. The result reveals that slump, slide, and debris flow events are associated with the situation of high-intensity or high-accumulation rainfall. The rainfall intensity-duration condition resulted in smaller magnitude and shallow failures. Medium to massive landslide were mainly related to the high-accumulation rainfall. A landslide regionalization process based on rainfall, geomorphologic and geologic characteristics is proposed. Results of the proposed process show good agreement with landslide events observed in the Taipei City during Typhoon Nari.     

Experimental study on cascading landslide dam failures by upstream flows

Landslide dams in mountainous areas are quite common. Typically, intense rainfalls can induce upstream flows along the sloping channel, which greatly affects the stability and failure modes of landslide dams. If a series of landslide dams are sequentially collapsed by an incoming mountain torrent (induced by intense rainfall), large debris flows can be formed in a short period of time. This also amplifies the magnitude of the debris flows along the flow direction. The catastrophic debris flows, which occurred in Zhouqu, China on August 8, 2010, were indeed caused by intense rainfall and the upstream cascading failure of landslide dams along the gullies. Experimental tests were conducted in a sloping channel to understand the dynamic process of cascading landslide dam failures and their effect on flow scale amplification. Similar to the Zhouqu conditions, the modeled landslide dams were distributed along a sloping channel and breached by different upstream flows. For each experiment, the front flows were sampled, the entrained grain sizes were analyzed, and the front discharge along the channel was measured. The results of these experiments show that landslide dams occurring along the channel can be destroyed by both high and low discharge flows, although the mechanisms are quite different for the two flow types. Regardless of flow type, the magnitude of the flows significantly increases after a cascading failure of landslide dams, resulting in an increase in both the diameter and the entrained coarse particles percentage.     

Large-scale simulation of watershed mass transport: a case study of Tsengwen reservoir watershed, southwest Taiwan

We present the large-scale simulation of watershed mass transport, including landslide, debris flow, and sediment transport. A case study of Tsengwen reservoir watershed under the extreme rainfall triggered by typhoon Morakot is conducted for verification. This approach starts with volume-area relation with landslide inventory method to predict temporal and regional landslide volume production and distribution. Then, debris flow model, Debris-2D, is applied to simulate the mass transport from hillslope to fluvial channel. Finally, a sediment transport model, NETSTARS, is used for hydraulic and sediment routing in river and reservoir. Near the water intake at the reservoir dam, the simulated sediment concentration is in good agreement with the measured one. The proposed approach gives good prediction and should help the management of reservoir operation and disaster prevention.     

The March 25 and 29, 2016 landslide-induced debris flow at Clapar,Banjarnegara, Central Java

The Clapar landslide induced debris flow consisted of the Clapar landslide occurred on 24 March 2017 and the Clapar debris flow occurred on 29 March 2017. The first investigation of the Clapar landslide induced debris flow was carried out two months after the disaster. It was followed by UAV mapping, extensive interviews, newspaper compilation, visual observation and field measurements, and video analysis in order to understand chronology and triggering mechanism of the landslide induced debris flow in Clapar. The 24 March 2016 landslide occurred after 5 hours of consecutive rainfall (11,2 mm) and was affected by combination of fishponds leak and infiltration of antecedent rain. After five days of the Clapar landslide, landslide partially mobilized to form debris flow where the head scarp of debris flow was located at the foot of the 24 March 2016 landslide. The Clapar debris flow occurred when there was no rainfall. It was not generated by rainstorm or the surface erosion of the river bed, but rather by water infiltration through the crack formed on the toe of the 24 March 2016 landslide. Supply of water to the marine clay deposit might have increased pore water pressure and mobilized the soil layer above. The amount of water accumulated in the temporary pond at the main body of the 24 March 2016 landslide might have also triggered the Clapar debris flow. The area of Clapar landslide still shows the possibility of further retrogression of the landslide body which may induce another debris flow. Understanding precursory factors triggering landslides and debris flows in Banjarnegara based on data from monitoring systems and laboratory experiments is essential to minimize the risk of future landslide.     

The formation and development of debris flows in large watersheds after the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

The Wenchuan earthquake has caused abundance of loose materials supplies for debris flows. Many debris flows have occurred in watersheds in area beyond 20 km², presenting characteristics differing from those in small watersheds. The debris flows yearly frequency decreases exponentially, and the average debris flow magnitude increases linearly with watershed size. The rainfall thresholds for debris flows in large watersheds were expressed as I?=?14.7 D ^?0.79 (2 h?<?D?<?56 h), which is considerably higher than those in small watersheds as I?=?4.4 D ^?0.70 (2 h?<?D?<?37 h). A case study is conducted in Ergou, 39.4 km² in area, to illustrate the formation and development processes of debris flows in large watersheds. A debris flow develops in a large watershed only when the rainfall was high enough to trigger the wide-spread failures and erosions on slope and realize the confluence in the watershed. The debris flow was supplied by the widely distributed failures dominated by rill erosions (14 in 22 sources in this case). The intermittent supplying increased the size and duration of debris flow. While the landslide dam failures provided most amounts for debris flows (57 % of the total amount), and amplified the discharge suddenly. During these processes, the debris flow velocity and density increased as well. The similar processes were observed in other large watersheds, indicating this case is representative.