Human health as a motivator for climate change mitigation: results from four European high-income countries

Invoking health benefits to promote climate-friendly household behavior has three unique advantages: (i) health co-benefits accrue directly to the acting individual, they are "private goods" rather than public ones; (ii) the evidence base for, and magnitude of health co-benefits is well-established; and (iii) the idea of a healthy life-style is well-engrained in public discourse, much more so than that of a climate-friendly life-style. In previous research, assessing the influence of information on health effects on people’s motivation to adopt mitigation actions, health co-benefits for the individual were typically confounded with collective health co-benefits, for example from pollution reduction. The present research aims to overcome this limitation by providing information on individual health co-benefits that are unconditional on the actions of others (direct health co-benefits). We report effects of this kind of health information on stated willingness to adopt mitigation actions as well as on simulation-based carbon emission reductions in a pre-registered experimental setting among 308 households in 4 mid-size case-study cities in 4 European high-income countries: France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. For each mitigation action from the sectors food, housing, and mobility, half of the sample received the amount of CO₂equivalents (CO₂-eq) saved and the financial costs or savings the respective action generated. The other half additionally received information on direct health co-benefits, where applicable. For households receiving information on direct health co-benefits, we find a higher mean willingness to adopt food and housing actions, and a greater proportion very willing to adopt one or more mitigation actions (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.1, 3.12); and a greater simulated reduction in overall carbon footprint: difference in percent reduction -2.70%, (95% CI -5.34, -0.04) overall and -4.45%, (95% CI -8.26, -0.64) for food. Our study is the first to show that providing information on strictly unconditional, individual health co-benefits can motivate households in high-income countries to adopt mitigation actions.     

Socioeconomic geography of climate change views in Europe

Climate change views have their socioeconomic foundations but also specific geographies. In merging these perspectives, this analysis uses ESS Round 8 data from 23 European countries to examine whether climate change scepticism and concern, pro-environmental personal norm and a willingness to engage in energy-saving behaviour exhibit, first, urban–rural and/or regional differences, and second, if these attitudes can be explained at individual level by socioeconomic position and wellbeing resources. We find that climate change scepticism and concern do exhibit urban–rural differences, where living in a country village is associated with greater climate scepticism and lower concern compared to living in a big city. Also, higher climate change concern and pro-environmental norms are associated with living in a region with constant population growth. These geographical differences are independent of individual-level socioeconomic attributes as well as one’s political orientation. Additionally, the results show that both climate change attitudes and reporting energy-saving behaviour are strongly stratified by level of education and reveal that those in lower income deciles feel less pro-environmental norm but nonetheless report greater engagement with energy-saving behaviour. In sum, the results highlight that climate change mitigation is not a uniform project either spatially or within certain socioeconomic strata. Hence, our results suggest that socioeconomic disadvantage (belonging to the lowest education and income levels) and spatial marginalisation (living in more rural surroundings and declining regions) should be better acknowledged when reworking climate change and environmental policies in the EU.     

Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments

International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO₂ If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO₂ is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs.     

Measurable,reportable and verifiable: the keys to mitigation in the Copenhagen deal

The climate negotiations up to Copenhagen will need to elaborate on measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) mitigation commitments and actions as part of the future of the climate regime. The conceptual, political, scientific, financial and institutional principles for MRV are explored for (1) mitigation commitments in developed countries, (2) mitigation actions in developing countries, supported by (3) means of implementation. For developed countries, the procedures in Articles 5, 7, 8 and 18 of the Kyoto Protocol will be critical in order to ensure comparability of commitments, both in effort and compliance. Outcomes should be reportable and verifiable through Annex I national communications and in-depth review. Existing procedures could be enhanced and need to apply across Protocol and Convention. MRV mitigation actions by developing countries should result in measurable deviations below baseline. Inventories will be important to measure, and enhanced national communications for reporting. The challenge will be to make mitigation actions verifiable, and options include verification by domestic institutions working to internationally agreed guidelines. A critical distinction is to be made between unilateral mitigation actions and those with international support. MRV applies to the provision of the means of implementation, including technology and finance. Investment in technology can be measured, so that institutional arrangements for technology and finance should be aligned. Verification of funds raised at international level would be simpler than raising funds nationally.     

Designing prediction markets for international negotiations: Lessons learnt from the Climate Summit in Copenhagen

This paper presents results from a field experiment of running a prediction market for international climate negotiations. We draw upon our experience of running the Copenhagen Prediction Market during the Copenhagen Climate Summit in December 2009. The Copenhagen Prediction Market consisted of 17 different markets, where participants could trade in shares predicting, amongst others, reduction targets for various countries, the long-term stabilisation goal or the level of funding from developed countries to developing nations for mitigation and adaptation actions. We show that this novel application of prediction markets to climate negotiations is distinct from more traditional applications and, in many ways, more challenging. We discuss our experiences in designing and setting up the market and interpreting its results. In particular, it is crucial to be able to define the outcome of a climate conference in the face of often ambiguous final communications in order to make the prediction market robust and to find benchmarks to compare prediction market performance against.     

Attribution matters: Revisiting the link between extreme weather experience and climate change mitigation responses

The literature suggests that extreme weather experiences have potential to increase climate change engagement by influencing the way people perceive the proximity and implications of climate change. Yet, limited attention has been directed at investigating how individual differences in the subjective interpretation of extreme weather events as indications of climate change moderate the link between extreme weather experiences and climate change attitudes. This article contends that subjective attribution of extreme weather events to climate change is a necessary condition for extreme weather experiences to be translated into climate change mitigation responses, and that subjective attribution of extreme weather to climate change is influenced by the psychological and social contexts in which individuals appraise their experiences with extreme weather. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, personal experience of this flooding event is shown to only directly predict perceived threat from climate change, and indirectly predict climate change mitigation responses, among individuals who subjectively attributed the floods to climate change. Additionally, subjective attribution of the floods to climate change is significantly predicted by pre-existing climate change belief, political affiliation and perceived normative cues. Attempts to harness extreme weather experiences as a route to engaging the public must be attentive to the heterogeneity of opinion on the attributability of extreme weather events to climate change.     

“经济大国能源与气候论坛”进展及前景展望

"经济大国能源与气候论坛"在推动全球主要国家就应对气候变化主要议题达成一致方面取得了进展,已初步显示出其作为联合国气候谈判晴雨表的特征。该论坛的实质是主要发达国家为转移减排责任和压力,降低减排成本,绑架主要发展中国家在全球应对气候变化领域实施的集体强权政治。论坛的核心目标在于推动全球量化减排,目的是借全球量化减排,营造低碳和气候友好技术的广大市场,使得具有技术优势的这些经济大国拥有新的主导全球经济的力量。我国应坚持"共同但有区别的责任"原则,联合与会发展中国家强调气候变化的历史责任,反对为全球温室气体排放设限等不公平提议,团结广大发展中国家,同时抓住论坛力推低碳经济和低碳技术发展的机遇,使我国站在全球新一轮技术革命的前沿。     

Understanding the latest progress in mitigating climate change and facilitating carbon neutrality北大核心CSCD

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the report of Working Group III of the Sixth Assessment Report "climate change 2022: mitigating climate change". The report accessed and summarized the latest research progress on climate change mitigation since the release of the Fifth Assessment Report, which will provide an important reference for the international community to further understand climate change mitigation actions, system transformation, and the pursuit of sustainable development. The report pointed out that human activities had cumulatively emitted about 2.4 trillion tons of CO2 from 1850 to 2019, of which 58% was emitted before 1990. In order to control the level of global temperature rise in the future, deep and immediate mitigation actions are required. In both low and minimum emission scenarios, fossil energy needs to be greatly reduced; renewable energy will be the mainstay of future energy supply; achieving carbon neutrality requires relying on negative emission technologies and increasing carbon sinks. Technological progress is one of the key conditions for helping the world combat climate change. Accelerated and equitable climate action is critical to sustainable development. The report's conclusions once again show that China's carbon neutrality target is in line with the mitigation path of the Paris Agreement's temperature rise target of less than 2 °C and striving to achieve 1.5°C. In the future, China should strengthen special research programs on the national concerns and key contents covered in the report. While strengthening scientific interpretation and effective use of the report's conclusions, it is also necessary to actively participate in the IPCC scientific assessment process, actively contribute Chinese wisdom, and contribute to the international dissemination of Chinese climate governance concepts. © 2022 Chinese Journal of Digestive Endoscopy All rights reserved.     

Drivers of collaboration to mitigate climate change: An illustration of Swiss climate policy over 15 years

Climate change mitigation policy is driven by scientific knowledge and involves actors from the international, national and local decision-making levels. This multi-level and cross-sectoral context requires collaborative management when designing mitigation solutions over time and space. But collaboration in general policymaking settings, and particularly in the complex domain of climate mitigation, is not an easy task. This paper addresses the question of what drives collaboration among collective actors involved in climate mitigation policy. We wish to investigate whether common beliefs or power structures influence collaboration among actors. We adopt a longitudinal approach to grasp differences between the early and more advanced stages of mitigation policy design. We use survey data to investigate actors’ collaboration, beliefs and power, and apply a Stochastic Actor-oriented Model for network dynamics to three subsequent networks in Swiss climate policy between 1995 and 2012. Results show that common beliefs among actors, as well as formal power structures, have a higher impact on collaboration relations than perceived power structures. Furthermore, those effects hold true for decision-making about initial mitigation strategies, but less so for the implementation of those measures.     

Decision making under uncertainty in climate change mitigation: introducing multiple actor motivations,agency and influence

Climate change mitigation has two main characteristics that interact to make it an extremely demanding challenge of governance: the complexity of the socio-technical systems that must be transformed to avoid climate change and the presence of profound uncertainties. A number of tools and approaches exist, which aim to help manage these challenges and support long-term decision making. However, most tools and approaches assume that there is one decision maker with clearly defined objectives. The interaction between decision makers with differing perspectives and agency is an additional uncertainty that is rarely addressed, despite the wide recognition that action is required at multiple scales and by multiple actors. This article draws inspiration from dynamic adaptive policy pathways to build on current decision support methods, extending analysis to include the perspectives and agency of multiple actors through a case study of the UK construction sector. The findings demonstrate the importance of considering alignment between perspectives, agency and potential actions when developing plans; the need for mobilizing and advocacy actions to build momentum for radical change; and the crucial influence of interaction between actors. The decision support approach presented could improve decision making by reflecting the diversity and interaction of actors; identifying short-term actions that connect to long-term goals and keeping future options open.

Key policy insights

• Multiple actors, with differing motivations, agency and influence, must engage with climate change mitigation, but may not do so, if proposed actions do not align with their motivations or if they do not have agency to undertake specific actions.

• Current roadmaps, which assume there is one decision maker with control over a whole system, might overstate how effective proposed actions could be.

• Decision making under deep uncertainty needs to account for the motivations and agency of diverse decision makers and the interaction between these decision makers.

• This could increase the implementation and effectiveness of mitigation activities.

     

Defining and classifying personal and household climate change adaptation behaviors

With climate change increasingly affecting individuals’ day-to-day lives, interest is growing in the personal and household adaptation behaviors that people can engage in. Many of these behaviors focus on actions to protect oneself or one's household in response to immediate hazards rather than ones that may achieve longer-term adaptation goals. We conducted a content analysis of 75 publications identified through a systematic literature review to learn how researchers from a range of disciplines conceptualize adaptive behavior in the context of climate change and what kinds of specific actions they describe. Based on this review, we propose a comprehensive definition of personal and household adaptation behavior that considers its purpose (i.e., preventing harm or gaining benefits), timing (i.e., proactive or reactive), time scale (i.e., short-term or long-term), as well as who acts (i.e., the individual alone or with others) and who is affected by those actions (i.e., the individual, other people, or the environment). We classify specific individual adaptation behaviors into civic engagement, consumption, coping, household protection, learning, lifestyle changes, migration, and self-protection. Research is needed to better understand the personal and societal benefits of adaptation behaviors and how to more equitably support these actions in different contexts.     

Pathways for climate resilient development: Human well-being within a safe and just space in the 21st century

The concept of climate resilient development pathways (CRDPs) introduced in IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report remains poorly conceptualised. We have attempted to deepen the conceptualisation of climate resilient development (CRD) or climate compatible development, while charting its pathways through fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs)-based simulations aided by knowledge based on stakeholders’ insights. We conceptualise CRD as a development embracing mitigation, adaptation and inclusive sustainable development to advance planetary health and well-being for all. The FCMs-based simulations demonstrate that appropriate enabling conditions are critical to the achievement of CRD, the most important of them being (i) the ethics, values, and worldviews shaping CRD’s directions by framing appropriate climate narratives and action; (ii) partnerships and commitment to finance and technology by the governments; (iii) interactions between the actors and arenas of engagement facilitating CRD decisions and actions; and (iv) dimensions of governance at multiple levels involving policy, institutions and practice. Citizens’ defence against climate change as a human right, along with planetary health and well-being, demands synergies while implementing mitigation, adaptation and sustainable development. Short-term decisions and actions related to mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development could have long-term effects on CRDPs. CRD could entail a societal transformation to eudaimonic living for ensuring universal well-being. The findings of this research could have profound implications for multilateral negotiations.     

The resilience paradox: flooding experience,coping and climate change mitigation intentions

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity and unpredictability of extreme weather events across the globe and these events are likely to have significant mental health implications. The mental health literature broadly characterises negative emotional reactions to extreme weather experiences as undesirable impacts on wellbeing. Yet, other research in psychology suggests that negative emotional responses to extreme weather are an important motivation for personal action on climate change. This article addresses the intersection of mental health and functional perspectives on negative emotions, with a specific focus on the potential that reduced negative emotional responses to extreme weather may also translate to diminished motivation to undertake climate change mitigation actions – which we term the ‘resilience paradox’. Using survey data gathered in the aftermath of severe flooding across the UK in winter 2013/2014, we present new evidence indicating that self-appraised coping ability moderates the link between flooding experience and negative emotions and thereby attenuates the indirect link between flooding experience and climate change mitigation intentions. We conclude that support for flood victims should extend beyond addressing emotional, physical and financial stresses to include acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and communication of the need for action to combat future climate risks.

Key policy insights

• Psychological resilience to flooding and other extreme weather events can translate to diminished motivation to mitigate climate change

• Negative emotional reactions need to occur at an optimal level to enable people to respond appropriately to climate risks.

• Flood victims’ subjective appraisal of their ability to cope does not necessarily encompass consideration of the role played by climate change. Therefore, support for victims of extreme weather should include explicit acknowledgement of the involvement of climate change and the need for action to mitigate future climate risks.

     

“可测量、可报告、可核实”方法的框架及在中国的适用性分析

《联合国气候变化框架公约》第13次缔约方会议通过的《巴厘行动计划》中,提出了"可测量、可报告、可核实(MRV)"的国家行动的概念,包括在下一个国际协议中。但目前对哪些内容要进行MRV,范围是什么,发达国家和发展中国家都要如何进行MRV还不是很清晰,也存在不少争议。本文提供了作者的研究认识,就MRV的框架进行描述,并结合一些政策制定中的核心问题进行了分析。同时在中国背景下分析了如何进行已有国家行动和政策的MRV,以及未来的方向。     

Constraints on community engagement with Great Barrier Reef climate change reduction and mitigation

Engaging stakeholders in Great Barrier Reef climate change reduction and mitigation strategies is central to efforts aimed at reducing human impacts on the reef and increasing its resilience to climate change. We developed a theoretical framework to investigate subjective and objective constraints on cognitive, affective, and behavioural engagement with the Great Barrier Reef climate change issue. A survey of 1623 Australian residents revealed high levels of cognitive and affective engagement with the Great Barrier Reef climate change issue, but that behavioural engagement was limited by objective constraints that intervene between individuals’ desire to become engaged (affective engagement) and their ability to take relevant actions. Individuals were constrained from increasing their engagement with the Great Barrier Reef climate change issue primarily by lack of knowledge about actions they can take, lack of time, and having other priorities. Individuals’ age, gender, education level, income, and place of residence influenced the probability that they would experience these and other specific constraints on engagement. We suggest that future Great Barrier Reef engagement strategies must endeavour to identify specific behaviour that individuals can undertake to help reduce the impact of climate change on the reef, and find ways to help people overcome the constraints they face on engagement in those activities. The theoretical framework we developed should be useful for investigating constraints on engagement with other environmental issues, but further empirical and conceptual work is necessary.     

Progress and evaluation of international climate change cooperation北大核心CSCD

气候变化是当前世界面临的巨大挑战,应对气候变化需要国际间合作已成为普遍共识。IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第三工作组(WGⅢ)报告第十四章回顾了IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)以来气候变化国际合作的进展,基于所提出的评价体系对进展进行了系统评估。报告认为,AR5以来气候变化国际合作最重要的进展是基于《巴黎协定》建立的以国家自主贡献为核心的全球行动模式;除《巴黎协定》外,国际上也形成了多种形式的合作机制,其中,气候俱乐部是国际气候合作研究的新热点。对于《巴黎协定》的有效性,目前国际社会存在正反两种观点,并认为《巴黎协定》能否达成既定目标取决于是否有能力强化全球下一步的集体气候行动目标和实施。     

应对气候变化进程中纳入性别考虑的进展与启示

女性在应对气候变化中处于不利地位,也是应对气候变化中不可忽视的力量。国际社会已逐渐认识到在应对气候变化进程中纳入性别考虑的重要意义,性别议题在气候谈判中的主流化趋势明显,《联合国气候变化框架公约》执行层面纳入性别考虑取得了长足的进展,以全球环境基金、绿色气候基金为代表的《联合国气候变化框架公约》资金机制已将性别政策纳入机构政策体系,并积极在项目层面推动性别政策的实施。虽然国际气候变化领域的性别主流化工作取得了较大进展,但仍存在女性参与气候变化决策的程度不足、减缓领域纳入性别考虑的程度不足等问题。目前中国气候变化领域对性别的关注不足,建议加强气候变化领域的性别问题研究,为履约工作提供支撑;在应对气候变化相关的政策体系中纳入性别考虑,加强与性别领域的沟通协作;加强气候变化相关机构性别主流化能力建设,明确职责安排;加强气候变化领域国内项目、“一带一路”项目和“南南合作”项目的性别主流化;切实加强中国女性应对气候变化能力,提高女性对气候行动的参与度。     

Using Protection Motivation Theory to examine information-seeking behaviors on climate change

Many earlier studies concluded that exposure to changes in local weather or extreme weather events prompt public interest in climate change, and in turn raise support for mitigation policies. However, these findings do not square with observations of record-breaking temperatures, and decades of failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. To address this conundrum, we use Protection Motivation Theory to form hypotheses on the specific type of climate change-related information that individuals seek during periods of extreme local weather. Using daily-level internet search engine data from Chinese cities, we find that residents are purposeful and rational in seeking information on climate change. Specifically, when faced with high or abnormal temperatures, they are much more likely to seek information to appraise their susceptibility to climate change threats, and evaluate coping responses. On the other hand, due to the lack of direct benefits, they do not seek out information on climate mitigation behaviors. In contrast to earlier studies, our findings suggest that it is unlikely that extreme weather events will prompt support for climate mitigation actions. Instead, as worldwide weather becomes more extreme and unpredictable, it is likely that public’s attention will shift in the direction of adaptation measures.