我国部门减排行动可测量、可报告、可核实现状分析

通过一系列的部门政策和措施的论述,证明了我国各部门减缓政策和措施已经通过国内系统得到了报告和核证,显示了“可测量,可报告和可核实”（MRV）的实际部门应用,同时指出部门方案具有不同的度量、报告制度和核证程序,以及不同的减排效果。这些部门减缓行动的MRV特点为国际MRV的构建提供了案例基础。     

国际气候变化适应战略与态势分析

在对国际气候变化适应行动进行回顾和展望的基础上,介绍了以《联合国气候变化框架公约》为主的国际气候变化适应政策的发展轨迹和趋势,分析了欧盟主要国家、澳大利亚、美国、加拿大、日本、俄罗斯和印度等国所采取的气候变化适应战略,总结出国际气候变化适应行动选择主要集中在极端气候事件与自然灾害、安全的淡水供应、基础设施建设、粮食安全,以及应对气候变化的协调机制等方面。     

《联合国气候变化框架公约》适应谈判历程回顾与展望

减缓和适应是应对气候变化的互补性策略,但在《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称《公约》）的谈判中,适应在很长一段时期都处于减缓的从属地位。《公约》20多年的适应谈判进程可划为早期缓慢发展、科学和技术讨论、适应与减缓并重、增强适应行动和全面适应行动5个阶段,呈现出由无到有、重要性不断增强的特点。这一特点反映了全球对气候变化影响和适应重要性认识的不断深入及适应气候变化挑战的不断增强。未来适应谈判将聚焦于如何通过《公约》现有机制增强行动及如何增加适应资金以满足发展中国家的适应需求。     

气候变化适应行动进展及对我国行动策略的若干思考

巴厘岛会议,即《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称《公约》）第13次缔约方会议,明确了将气候变化适应和减缓并重的立场,并对适应工作进行了一系列的安排和部署。通过介绍《公约》下适应认识的发展过程,阐述了巴厘岛会议针对适应行动的一些进展,讨论了我国在适应方面可开展的行动和关注的领域。分析认为,目前适应已成为和减缓并重的关注议题,适应行动的呼声越来越强烈,但行动的落实还需要经过漫长的过程,适应基金募集和分配在发达国家和发展中国家之间、发展中国家内部也将有一个艰难而激烈的谈判交锋。     

国外气候变化教育进展及其启示研究

<正>气候变化教育对于提高公众气候素养,鼓励公众有效参与气候变化行动、引导公众科学合理应对气候变化起着关键的作用[1]。自《联合国气候变化框架公约》提出了气候变化教育的基本理念、行动框架、主要内容以来,在联合国及联合国教科文组织的积极推动下,国外学者对气候变化教育方式方法进行了大量系统的研究[2-9]。中国在《国家应对气候变化规划(2014—2020年)》中提出将应对气候变化教育纳入国民教育体系,并相应提出应对气候变化知识进学校、进课堂等行动计划。但是纵观我国当前气候变化教育研究现状,对气候变化教育的研究还不够深入和具体,大多数研究只停留在政策宣贯层面,对气候变化教育     

气候变化适应行动进展及对我国行动策略的若干思考

 巴厘岛会议,即《联合国气候变化框架公约》（简称《公约》）第13次缔约方会议,明确了将气候变化适应和减缓并重的立场,并对适应工作进行了一系列的安排和部署。通过介绍《公约》下适应认识的发展过程,阐述了巴厘岛会议针对适应行动的一些进展,讨论了我国在适应方面可开展的行动和关注的领域。分析认为,目前适应已成为和减缓并重的关注议题,适应行动的呼声越来越强烈,但行动的落实还需要经过漫长的过程,适应基金募集和分配在发达国家和发展中国家之间、发展中国家内部也将有一个艰难而激烈的谈判交锋。     

适应气候变化政策机制的国际经验与启示

中国高度重视适应气候变化工作,实行减缓与适应并重的应对气候变化原则,已出台适应气候变化相关的战略、规划等一系列政策文件。但总体来看,中国适应气候变化政策与行动尚处于起步阶段,面临着法规制度缺位、监测评估不足、组织协调机制不完善等挑战,适应气候变化政策的类型、数量和力度都明显弱于减缓。为完善中国适应气候变化政策与机制的框架设计,文中梳理了相关研究、《联合国气候变化框架公约》下的适应气候变化国际机制及主要国家经验,提出了一套完整闭环的适应气候变化核心决策流程及关键支撑机制,并重点从开展法制建设、制定适应战略（计划）、建立监测评估机制、构建协调机制和完善资金机制等五方面,归纳了主要国家的经验与启示,最终研究提出完善我国适应气候变化政策与机制框架设计的建议,包括加快建立和完善适应气候变化法制建设、加快构建国家适应气候变化的政策体系、加快完善国家适应气候变化的机制设计、加强适应气候变化支撑能力建设、推动适应气候变化的国际合作等。     

贵阳、河池可沉积含水量对比分析

根据贵阳、河池两个探空站的资料,对比分析贵阳和河池两地整层大气中的相对湿度、绝对湿度,探讨两地大气中的水汽含量存在差异的原因。并对贵阳和河池大气中的可沉积含水量变化情况进行比较,从而研究贵阳大气中可沉积含水量的利用价值。     

联合国气候变化框架公约适应委员会职能谈判焦点解析

在《联合国气候变化框架公约》(简称《公约》)下建立适应委员会是当前气候变化国际谈判中发展中国家和发达国家争论的焦点之一。通过对《公约》下现有机构的职能分析和已开展的适应行动的回顾,提出适应委员会需赋予适应规划、政策制定、资金需求评估、项目实施、协调区域中心等关键职能。针对谈判中的焦点问题,发展中国家应坚持以下三点：将适应委员会建立在《公约》之下,提高适应委员会的作用;发展中国家在适应委员会中占多数席位;适应委员会与资金和技术机制直接联系,落实开展具体适应活动的资金和技术支持。     

增雨作业火箭可催化性分析

提出人工增雨机制和“播云温度窗”概念,分析了红河地区增雨作业可播撒区高度的年变化值,对现行增雨作业火箭和云体可播区高度进行分析,得出:人工增雨不仅仅是对云体发射几枚增雨火箭弹就可以达到增加降雨,而是要根据作业时间、地点、天气条件、云体可播区高度和选择适合的增雨火箭等进行科学分析,并充分利用现代天气预测方法和大气探测手段,实施有效的人工增雨作业。     

Measurable,reportable and verifiable: the keys to mitigation in the Copenhagen deal

The climate negotiations up to Copenhagen will need to elaborate on measurable, reportable and verifiable (MRV) mitigation commitments and actions as part of the future of the climate regime. The conceptual, political, scientific, financial and institutional principles for MRV are explored for (1) mitigation commitments in developed countries, (2) mitigation actions in developing countries, supported by (3) means of implementation. For developed countries, the procedures in Articles 5, 7, 8 and 18 of the Kyoto Protocol will be critical in order to ensure comparability of commitments, both in effort and compliance. Outcomes should be reportable and verifiable through Annex I national communications and in-depth review. Existing procedures could be enhanced and need to apply across Protocol and Convention. MRV mitigation actions by developing countries should result in measurable deviations below baseline. Inventories will be important to measure, and enhanced national communications for reporting. The challenge will be to make mitigation actions verifiable, and options include verification by domestic institutions working to internationally agreed guidelines. A critical distinction is to be made between unilateral mitigation actions and those with international support. MRV applies to the provision of the means of implementation, including technology and finance. Investment in technology can be measured, so that institutional arrangements for technology and finance should be aligned. Verification of funds raised at international level would be simpler than raising funds nationally.     

Assessing progress in MRV capacity development: experience with a scorecard approach

This article reports experiences gathered in 12 developing countries in Latin America and Africa with capacity development for national GHG inventory systems. The national systems and their ability to deliver on measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) requirements is assessed using a scorecard that covers the transparency, accuracy, completeness, consistency, and comparability of the GHG inventory as well as its institutional set-up and management aspects. The analysis shows that a quantitative assessment of GHG inventory systems with a scorecard is feasible and useful, and could commonly be used for tracking progress in MRV capacity development.

Policy relevance

A large number of capacity development initiatives are underway to advance national GHG inventory systems in developing countries, particularly in the land-use sector. These aim to promote the reliable MRV of GHG emissions and removals, which is expected to underpin developing countries’ contributions to global mitigation efforts, including through results-based payments. Although MRV is a cornerstone of climate change policy and despite widespread capacity gaps, there is little conclusive evidence about the effectiveness of such capacity development. This article relates the positive experience from one initiative, the Capacity Development for REDD+ project, which employed a novel, scorecard-based approach to results monitoring. Considerable progress is observed and provides reassurance regarding the soundness of development agencies’ significant investments in MRV. Disaggregating scores by countries and by underlying criteria also provides insights to prioritize further investments.     

国际气候谈判背景下的国家温室气体排放清单编制

基于"共同但有区别的责任"原则,《联合国气候变化框架公约》对附件I和非附件I缔约方提交国家温室气体排放清单的要求不尽相同。2007年以来,发展中国家自主减缓行动透明度、以国家温室气候排放清单为核心的国家信息通报提交频率及其磋商分析问题成为气候谈判争论的焦点之一,发展中国家承担的相关义务有不断增加的趋势。通过阐述该公约对发达国家和发展中国家排放清单编制的不同要求,特别是通过对目前发达国家所接受的清单审评制度和我国国家温室气体排放清单编制情况的分析论述,明确我国国家清单编制所面临的挑战,并提出相应的对策建议。     

Climate change response in Europe: what’s the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries

Urban areas are pivotal to global adaptation and mitigation efforts. But how do cities actually perform in terms of climate change response? This study sheds light on the state of urban climate change adaptation and mitigation planning across Europe. Europe is an excellent test case given its advanced environmental policies and high urbanization. We performed a detailed analysis of 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries and analysed the cities’ climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. We investigate the regional distribution of plans, adaptation and mitigation foci and the extent to which planned greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions contribute to national and international climate objectives. To our knowledge, it is the first study of its kind as it does not rely on self-assessment (questionnaires or social surveys). Our results show that 35 % of European cities studied have no dedicated mitigation plan and 72 % have no adaptation plan. No city has an adaptation plan without a mitigation plan. One quarter of the cities have both an adaptation and a mitigation plan and set quantitative GHG reduction targets, but those vary extensively in scope and ambition. Furthermore, we show that if the planned actions within cities are nationally representative the 11 countries investigated would achieve a 37 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, translating into a 27 % reduction in GHG emissions for the EU as a whole. However, the actions would often be insufficient to reach national targets and fall short of the 80 % reduction in GHG emissions recommended to avoid global mean temperature rising by 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.     

Climate change mitigation strategies for agriculture: an analysis of nationally determined contributions,biennial reports and biennial update reports

The role of agriculture in the context of climate change is a complex issue. On the one hand, concerns about food security highlight the need to prioritize adaptation; on the other hand, the target of the Paris Agreement (keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C) cannot be achieved without a significant decrease in agricultural emissions. Various analyses of nationally determined contributions (NDCs) submitted under the Paris Agreement show how countries intend to prioritize the needs for adaptation and mitigation in the agricultural sector. This paper focuses on 46 countries that contribute 90% of global agricultural emissions and asks how they are addressing the agricultural sector in their climate mitigation policies. It takes into account that conditions and circumstances in countries vary significantly but might also indicate similar patterns. The analysis is based on information provided by countries in their NDCs, as well as their Biennial Reports (BRs) or Biennial Update Reports (BURs) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It further includes data on national agricultural emissions. By applying a mixed methods approach, which combines qualitative content analysis and comparative cluster analysis, we find that countries vary in their progress on agriculture and climate mitigation for many different reasons. These reasons include the national perception of the problem, divergent starting points for climate policy, particularities of the agricultural sector and, correspondingly, the availability of cost-effective mitigation technologies.

Key policy insights

• While for many countries the NDCs signify the beginning of their climate policy, UNFCCC biennial reports can be used to learn more about the policies that countries have already implemented.

• Mitigation action in the agricultural sector is emphasized most prominently in cases where co-benefits are possible and production is not impacted negatively.

• Policies and measures in the agricultural sector often do not align with the UNFCCC system of monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV). In addition to improving MRV-systems, it seems equally important to exchange national experiences with implemented measures and policies.

• The Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture could take into account the problem of different definitions of sector boundaries and thus the importance of different mitigation measures.

     

Differentiation of mitigation commitments: the multi-sector convergence approach

This paper presents a new sector-based framework — called the multi-sector convergence approach — for negotiating binding national GHG mitigation targets after the first budget period defined by the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012). The major characteristics of this approach are that: (i) it is based on the distinction of different sectors within the national economy; (ii) it prescribes that, in principle, the amount of per capita emission assignments should ultimately converge to the same level for all countries; (iii) it accounts for differences in national circumstances by offering the opportunity to grant additional emission allowances to countries facing specific circumstances that justify higher emission assignments; and (iv) it offers a framework for negotiating mitigation commitments among parties of the UNFCCC, including a (gradual) participation of developing countries that pass a certain threshold level of per capita emissions. In addition to briefly discussing the underlying principles of promising proposals to differentiate future GHG mitigation commitments, the paper outlines the methodology and major characteristics of the multi-sector convergence (MSC) approach, followed by some numerical illustrations. The paper is concluded by a preliminary assessment of the MSC approach.     

Aligning climate and sustainable development finance through an SDG lens. The role of development assistance in implementing the Paris Agreement

Climate change and development are strongly interconnected. An efficient use of financial resources would, thus require alignment between climate finance and development priorities, as set out in the context of both the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. In this paper, we investigate to what extent climate-related official development assistance (ODA) before and after the Paris Agreement adoption supports the implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Moreover, we assess to what extent donors align this finance with recipient countries’ climate-related priorities as spelled out in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). First, we find that climate-relevant ODA contributes to multiple SDGs, above all SDG 7 (energy) and SDG 11 (cities). Second, we find that there is substantial alignment between donors’ and recipients’ SDG priorities, but that this alignment has not improved in recent years, since the conclusion of the Paris Agreement. Third, we find that albeit climate-finance continues to be allocated more to climate-change mitigation than to adaptation, the difference became smaller in recent years. This reduced the misalignment with recipient countries’ NDC climate activities, which focus more on adaptation than mitigation. Overall, we identify coherence, gaps and opportunities for further alignment of climate and development actions, and related finance. Such an alignment is essential to increase the likelihood of implementation of the two international agreements and to ensure that action is guided by recipient countries’ needs.     

Technological capability and transfer for achieving South Africa's development goals

Technological capability and technology transfer both play important roles in achieving low-carbon development targets and the concepts of both have appeared in national development and climate policy debates. Yet, they differ. Improving capabilities and transfer mechanisms are two differing approaches to technological development. Technology transfer is associated with a key political dynamic within international climate policy, in that developing countries request support from industrialised countries. Whereas technological capability focuses on building internal capabilities and is often framed in the context of national industrial policy plans rather than relying on external support. We argue that technology development, a combination of these approaches, can contribute to South Africa's low-carbon development through innovation and technology-based mitigation actions that increase domestic technological capabilities. Technological capability needs to become a determinant of mitigation action to effectively contribute to achieving South Africa's low-carbon development goals. International technology transfer and cooperation should contribute to boosting domestic capabilities to advance technological development. Technology transfer based on pure sales will not contribute to achieving long-term low-carbon development goals.     

Differentiation of mitigation commitments: the multi-sector convergence approach

Abstract

This paper presents a new sector-based framework—called the multi-sector convergence approach—for negotiating binding national GHG mitigation targets after the first budget period defined by the Kyoto Protocol (2008–2012). The major characteristics of this approach are that: (i) it is based on the distinction of different sectors within the national economy; (ii) it prescribes that, in principle, the amount of per capita emission assignments should ultimately converge to the same level for all countries; (iii) it accounts for differences in national circumstances by offering the opportunity to grant additional emission allowances to countries facing specific circumstances that justify higher emission assignments; and (iv) it offers a framework for negotiating mitigation commitments among parties of the UNFCCC, including a (gradual) participation of developing countries that pass a certain threshold level of per capita emissions. In addition to briefly discussing the underlying principles of promising proposals to differentiate future GHG mitigation commitments, the paper outlines the methodology and major characteristics of the multi-sector convergence (MSC) approach, followed by some numerical illustrations. The paper is concluded by a preliminary assessment of the MSC approach.