Making modelling count - increasing the contribution of shelf-seas community and ecosystem models to policy development and management

Marine legislation is becoming more complex and marine ecosystem-based management is specified in national and regional legislative frameworks. Shelf-seas community and ecosystem models (hereafter termed ecosystem models) are central to the delivery of ecosystem-based management, but there is limited uptake and use of model products by decision makers in Europe and the UK in comparison with other countries. In this study, the challenges to the uptake and use of ecosystem models in support of marine environmental management are assessed using the UK capability as an example. The UK has a broad capability in marine ecosystem modelling, with at least 14 different models that support management, but few examples exist of ecosystem modelling that underpin policy or management decisions. To improve understanding of policy and management issues that can be addressed using ecosystem models, a workshop was convened that brought together advisors, assessors, biologists, social scientists, economists, modellers, statisticians, policy makers, and funders. Some policy requirements were identified that can be addressed without further model development including: attribution of environmental change to underlying drivers, integration of models and observations to develop more efficient monitoring programmes, assessment of indicator performance for different management goals, and the costs and benefit of legislation. Multi-model ensembles are being developed in cases where many models exist, but model structures are very diverse making a standardised approach of combining outputs a significant challenge, and there is a need for new methodologies for describing, analysing, and visualising uncertainties. A stronger link to social and economic systems is needed to increase the range of policy-related questions that can be addressed. It is also important to improve communication between policy and modelling communities so that there is a shared understanding of the strengths and limitations of ecosystem models.     

海洋生态系统动力学模型研究进展

海洋生态系统动力学模型作为定量地认识和分析海洋生态系统现象的有力工具,近年来得到了长足发展。本文首先回顾了海洋生态动力学模型的发展历史,着重介绍了21世纪以来生态系统动力学模型的三大发展趋势:一是进一步探索海洋生态系统复杂性,二是全球气候变化与海洋生态系统的相互作用;三是不再局限于理论研究,而进入于灾害预报与评估、公共决策等应用领域。其次介绍了海洋生态动力学模型的分类及典型海洋生态动力学数值模型COHERENS的特点、功能和最新的应用情况。最后总结归纳了目前海洋生态动力学模型研究领域的几大问题与挑战,展望了该研究领域未来的发展趋势和方向。     

Sometimes you cannot make it on your own; drivers and scenarios for regional cooperation in implementing the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Implementing the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive explicitly calls for regional cooperation between the EU Member States in the different regional seas. This regional cooperation, although set in a general framework of EU Member States and non-EU states utilising existing Regional Sea Conventions as focal point, develops along different tracks. Based on a series of interviews with different stakeholder groups in the different regional seas the drivers for this regional cooperation were determined. These drivers were used to develop a set of scenarios to depict possible ways and structures for cooperation at the different regional seas. In this paper the result of this analysis and the different scenarios developed are presented. The five scenarios developed were very helpful in elaborating alternative governance models for regional cooperation. From the validation by the stakeholders it became clear that both the drivers used, as the scenarios developed were found to be relevant. There is no single solution that is going to fit all regional seas, or that is going to appeal to all stakeholders within a regional sea. Especially in this setting the scenario approach does help people to explore the full range of possibilities that exists for the development of alternative governance models that address two issues raised but not detailed in the MSFD: cooperation and participation.     

Equity, justice and power issues raised by no-take marine protected area proposals

In the face of growing calls for no-take marine protected areas (NTMPAs) and the development of a UK legal framework for them, fishing industry and related perspectives on the equity, justice and power issues raised by such designations are explored. Whilst these reveal growing concerns about the political and geographical marginalisation of the fishing industry, they also reveal a significant potential for the constructive participation of industry representatives in discussions and decisions concerning NTMPAs. These findings support the argument that this potential should be realised, as the environmental coherence of our seas need not be achieved through the social and economic isolation of our fishing industry.     

Application of non-market valuation to California's coastal policy decisions

Regulatory agencies in the United States do not generally consider economic values of ecosystem services in their policy decisions. We report the results of a collaborative effort by a team of economists, conservation biologists, and staff members of the California Ocean Protection Council to provide spatially explicit and policy-relevant values for ecosystem services generated in coastal regions in California. We developed a matrix in which the rows are types of ecosystem services and the columns are types of marine ecosystems along the California coast. Where possible, we populated this matrix with ecosystem service values per unit of area drawn from the economics literature. We then evaluated whether the values for given services, in given ecosystems, could be reasonably approximated by applying the replacement cost or the avoided cost method. Reported values of coastal ecosystems varied widely, and much of the valuation research did not address specific ecosystem services. Even when ecosystem services were explicitly addressed, the services often were not described or valued in a spatially explicit manner. These results suggest that rigorous application of non-market values to policy decisions requires original valuation studies for specific services in specific ecosystems. Where original, place-based valuation studies are not possible, valuation by replacement or avoided cost methods is feasible for some ecosystem services.     

The matrix revisited: A bird's-eye view of marine ecosystem service provision

The marine environment provides a range of ecosystem services and benefits for society. A previous study in Marine Policy (Potts et al., 2014) [1] advocated a matrix approach to demonstrate the relative degree of ecosystem service provision from habitats and species within UK Marine Protected Areas (MPAs), but excluded seabird species in its assessment. Despite the number of existing UK MPAs designated specifically for individual seabird species and/or seabird assemblages, and the fact that seabird species have long been used as policy-relevant indicators for the monitoring and management of the marine environment, as yet little research has focussed on the direct role of seabird species in the provision of ecosystem services and how these are captured for marine spatial planning purposes in the context of MPAs. Building on the matrix approach, this paper develops and populates a matrix to illustrate the relationship between key UK breeding seabird species and their relative contribution to the delivery of intermediate ecosystem services and goods/benefits. The original matrix approach has been strengthened to include the development and testing of a set of rules for combining multiple matrices. Confidence scores relating to the underlying evidence base are built into the matrix to provide an illustration of the current understanding and to identify current gaps in evidence. Following a sense check by external seabird experts the matrix is applied in the context of four existing UK MPA case study sites. Further developments and applications of the seabird matrix are discussed within the context of wider marine management.     

海洋生态系统服务非市场价值评估框架:内涵、技术与准则

海洋生态系统服务非市场价值评估是将生态系统服务的效用价值量化为货币价值的过程。通过将无形的生态系统效益转化为有形的经济价值,非市场价值评估有利于提高海洋生态系统管理决策的科学性和有效性。然而现有研究对于评估对象的界定以及评估技术的使用缺乏统一的标准,导致评估结果不具有可比性。本文从内涵、技术与准则三个层面构建了海洋生态系统服务非市场价值评估框架:首先,系统分析了生态系统功能、生态系统服务以及生态效益的区别和联系,明确了非市场价值从生态系统到社会经济系统的转化路径;其次,对比阐释了非市场价值评估技术的差异性与适用性,识别出不同评估方法的技术特征;最后,提出了非市场价值评估的应用准则,确保评估过程的有效性和评估结果的可靠性。     

Ecosystem modelling in the southern Benguela: comparisons of Atlantis,Ecopath with Ecosim,and OSMOSE under fishing scenarios

Ecosystem-based management of marine fisheries requires the use of simulation modelling to investigate the system-level impact of candidate fisheries management strategies. However, testing of fundamental assumptions such as system structure or process formulations is rarely done. In this study, we compare the output of three different ecosystem models (Atlantis, Ecopath with Ecosim, and OSMOSE) applied to the same ecosystem (the southern Benguela), to explore which ecosystem effects of fishing are most sensitive to model uncertainty. We subjected the models to two contrasting fishing pressure scenarios, applying high fishing pressure to either small pelagic fish or to adult hake. We compared the resulting model behaviour at a system level, and also at the level of model groups. We analysed the outputs in terms of various commonly used ecosystem indicators, and found some similarities in the overall behaviour of the models, despite major differences in model formulation and assumptions. Direction of change in system-level indicators was consistent for all models under the hake pressure scenario, although discrepancies emerged under the small-pelagic-fish scenario. Studying biomass response of individual model groups was key to understanding more integrated system-level metrics. All three models are based on existing knowledge of the system, and the convergence of model results increases confidence in the robustness of the model outputs. Points of divergence in the model results suggest important areas of future study. The use of feeding guilds to provide indicators for fish species at an aggregated level was explored, and proved to be an interesting alternative to aggregation by trophic level.     

以生态修复为导向的海洋生态补偿模式研究

如何妥善处理海洋开发利用与海洋生态系统损失之间的矛盾关系是我国沿海城市面临的重大挑战。文章分析了海洋生态补偿模式现状及其存在的问题,认为单纯收取生态补偿金并不能实质性解决海洋开发活动带来的海洋生态损失问题,实施生态修复是降低和减缓海洋生态系统损失的主要手段;建议利用海洋生态系统服务货币化来连接海洋生态损失与海洋生态修复,量化用海单位所造成的海洋生态损失和生态修复所带来生态系统功能增益,进而指示海洋生态损失与海洋生态修复是否达到平衡;进一步提出以生态修复为导向的海洋生态补偿模式的技术框架,为落实与完善海洋生态补偿制度提供参考。     

England's evolving marine and coastal governance framework

This paper reviews the principal marine and coastal policy changes in England since 1999. The key changes identified are the establishment of a strategic national marine and coastal policy direction, new marine legislation and institutions, the emergence of a marine planning framework, the consolidation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management approaches to coastal governance, the establishment of a Marine Protected Area network, and the decline of coastal partnerships. The European Union, UK National Government, and devolved administrations are identified as key influences on the governance evolution and their relative contributions are discussed. It is concluded that the English marine and coastal governance context has evolved significantly since 1999 and that the new framework, if implemented successfully, represents a genuine step towards an integrated governance framework for England's coasts and seas.     

Do marine protected areas deliver flows of ecosystem services to support human welfare?

This paper examines the potential relationships between the ecosystem services provided by the coastal and marine environment and the designation of marine protected areas. The hypothesis is that relationships exist between the provision of ecosystem services and the features protected by marine protected areas. It is considered that protection will maintain these features in good ecological condition and in some cases will restore ecological functioning with positive effects on the delivery of ecosystem services, as pressures upon the protected features are reduced. As the number of marine protected area designations grows, system-wide effects to communities from improvements in delivery of a range of ecosystem services may be realised. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the jurisdictional marine protected area policies proposed by the English, Welsh and Scottish Governments. It presents structured assessment matrices developed from the literature and expert opinion, of ecosystem service provision by marine protected habitats and species and applies the findings to a range of existing UK marine protected areas to demonstrate its relevance. The approach and case study findings are discussed within the wider context of marine ecosystem services and marine protected area management.     

Nine nations,one ocean: A benchmark appraisal of the South Western Indian Ocean Fisheries Project (2008–2012)

Coastal and island states of the Western Indian Ocean lack scientific and management capacity to draw sustainable benefits from their Exclusive Economic Zones. Declining ecosystem services and unregulated fishing has prompted nine riparian countries to develop a regional framework for capacity building and scientific development towards collective management of shared resources. Supported by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the Agulhas and Somali Currents large marine ecosystems programme consists of three inter-related modules, supported by different agencies: land-based impacts on the marine environment (UNEP); productivity, ecosystem health and nearshore fisheries (UNDP) and transboundary shared and migrating fisheries resources (World Bank). The latter is the South Western Indian Ocean Fisheries Project (SWIOFP), a 5-year joint data gathering and fisheries assessment initiative. SWIOFP is a prelude to long-term cooperative fisheries management in partnership with the newly established FAO–South Western Indian Ocean Fisheries Commission (SWIOFC). We describe the development of SWIOFP as a model of participatory regional scientific cooperation and collective ocean management.     

Evaluating tradeoffs among ecosystem services to inform marine spatial planning

A central challenge for natural resource management is developing rigorous yet practical approaches for balancing the costs and benefits of diverse human uses of ecosystems. Economic theory has a long history of evaluating tradeoffs in returns from different assets to identify optimal investment strategies. There has been recent progress applying this framework to the delivery of ecosystem services in land use planning. However, despite growing national and international interest in marine spatial planning, there is a lack of parallel frameworks in the marine realm. This paper reviews an ecosystem service tradeoff analysis framework and provides a more comprehensive synthesis for how it can be applied to marine spatial planning and marine ecosystem-based management. A tradeoff analysis approach can reveal inferior management options, demonstrate the benefits of comprehensive planning for multiple, interacting services over managing single services, and identify ‘compatible’ services that provide win–win management options.     

区域渔业管理组织对脆弱海洋生态系统的保护浅析

21世纪以来底拖网渔业的快速发展给脆弱海洋生态系统（VME）带来极大威胁,导致公海深海渔业发展不可持续以及海洋生物多样性降低。为更好地实现养护海洋渔业资源和保护海洋生物多样性的目标,同时为我国在保护VME以及管理公海深海渔业方面提供参考,文章分析八大区域渔业管理组织（RFMO）针对VME保护采取的系列措施及其保护VME的可行性,针对存在的问题提出对策建议,并对我国在RFMO中保护VME进行展望。研究结果表明：《公海深海渔业管理国际准则》在RFMO保护VME的实践中发挥重要的指导作用;RFMO采取的措施限制深海渔业活动,但为保护VME和养护海洋渔业资源提供重要基础和保障;未来RFMO应加强信息共享和技术合作,发展VME分布预测技术,同时在保护海洋生物多样性方面积极开展双边和多边合作;我国应进一步研究和实践基于生态系统的渔业管理方法,平衡保护与开发利用的关系,积极参与国际渔业管理和VME保护并促进合作,加强南极海域海洋保护区综合治理。     

The value of marine biodiversity to the leisure and recreation industry and its application to marine spatial planning

The incorporation of the ecosystem approach into marine planning requires that all aspects of value associated with marine biodiversity are incorporated into the decision making process. An ecosystem services approach to valuing marine biodiversity is recognised as a framework by which economic, ecological and social values may be incorporated into the decision making process. There are sectors of the marine leisure and recreation industry (sub-aqua diving, sea angling and wildlife watching), which depend on the presence of natural marine resources in order to carry out their activity. Estimating the value of this direct use can provide an evidence base for the sustainable use of marine biodiversity when set against other competing economic interests in marine spatial planning. In the case study area of Lyme Bay, the marine leisure and recreation industry has been valued using both monetary and non-monetary methods. The results show that the leisure and recreation industry is dependent on the diversity of sites (many of which are currently unmanaged) and that the industry is of economic significance and an area which has recently been closed to trawling activity enables the protection of some of the most valuable sites but has limited benefits for protecting the full resource base upon which this local industry depends.     

On the environmental effectiveness of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive

Marine and coastal ecosystems – and thus the benefits they create for humans – are subject to increasing pressures and competing usages. For this reason, the European Union (EU) adopted the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD), which is to guide future maritime policy in the EU and aims at achieving or maintaining a good environmental status (GES) of European seas by 2020. To this end, the MSFD requires the development of improvement measures, which have to be assessed inter alia by examining their cost-effectiveness and by carrying out cost-benefit analysis (CBA) before their implementation. This paper investigates the applicability of environmental CBA in the marine context. It identifies and discusses problems that could hamper the environmental effectiveness of the MSFD. For example, the fact that marine ecosystem services are much less tangible than terrestrial ones implies greater challenges for the quantification of benefits for society in a marine context. One finding is that the limitations of environmental valuation methods regarding their ability to capture the whole total economic value of improvement measures are a potential source of problems, as the MSFD allows countries to disregard measures with disproportionately high costs. The trans-boundary nature of the main European seas adds to the complexity of the valuation task, e.g., due to the danger that benefits that occur outside of national territories are neglected. Moreover, the current state of knowledge on the functioning of complex marine ecosystems and the links to socio-economic impacts and human well-being seem insufficient to meet the MSFD requirements.     

The perils and promise of futures analysis in marine ecosystem-based management

Ecosystem-based management is now widely accepted as the standard strategy for achieving sustainable delivery of marine and estuarine ecosystem services. The ubiquity and rate of change in marine ecosystems necessitate incorporating visions of future ecosystem states into ecosystem management strategies. Creating visions of the future enables policy makers to set realistic objectives and targets, and to explore the consequences of potential management decisions on ecosystems under multiple potential scenarios of change. Several classes of futures are used in marine ecosystem management program, and three are highlighted here: visioning, predictive models, and scenario analysis. Each approach is briefly described, and their use in current marine ecosystem management programs in North America is reviewed. In particular, the importance of using scenario analysis to identify and incorporate the influence of exogenous drivers into management strategies is highlighted. Then, some of the perils and promises associated with each approach are described, and a way forward is proposed that incorporates multiple types of future envisioning approaches into management programs. Key contributions of future analyses include highlighting connections and trade-offs among ecosystem components, setting realistic targets, and incorporating exogenous drivers, and their uncertainties, into ecosystem management programs.     

New metrics for managing and sustaining the ocean's bounty

Policies are arising around the world, most recently in the United States, that mandate the implementation of marine spatial planning as a practical pathway towards ecosystem-based management. In the new United States ocean policy, and several other cases around the globe, ecosystem services are at the core of marine spatial planning, but there is little guidance on how ecosystem services should be measured, making it hard to implement this new approach. A new framework is shown here for practical, rigorous ecosystem service measurement that highlights contributions from both natural and social systems. The novel three-step framework addresses traditional shortcomings of an ecosystem services approach by giving managers and scientists the tools to assess and track: (1) the condition of the ecosystem (supply metrics), (2) the amount of ocean resources actually used or enjoyed by people (service metrics), and (3) people's preference for that level of service (value metrics). This framework will allow real world progress on marine spatial planning to happen quickly, and with a greater chance for success.     

围填海对海洋生态系统服务功能价值的损失评估———以烟台芝罘湾为例

围填海会对海洋生态环境产生负面影响,并导致海洋生态系统服务功能损失,开展围填海海洋生态系统服务功能价值评估对于海域资源的节约集约利用和可持续发展具有重要作用。文章基于烟台芝罘湾海域生态系统服务特点,采用功能价值法,构建并优化涵盖供给、调节、支持和文化4项服务功能的近海生态系统服务功能指标体系和价值评估模型,选择烟台芝罘...