Risk perception and evacuation decisions of Florida tourists under hurricane threats: a stated preference analysis

Though most hurricane evacuation studies have focused on residents, tourists are also a vulnerable population. To assess their perceptions of risk and evacuation likelihood under different hurricane conditions, we surveyed 448 tourists visiting central Florida. Respondents viewed four maps emulating track forecast cones produced by the National Hurricane Center and text information featuring variations of storm intensity, coast of landfall, centerline position relative to the survey site, time until landfall, and event duration. We performed chi-square tests to determine which hurricane conditions, and aspects of tourists such as their demographics and previous hurricane experience, most likely influenced their ratings of risk and evacuation likelihood for respondents located on Pinellas County beaches or inland near Orlando, FL. Highly rated scenarios featured a Category 4 hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast with the centerline passing over the sampling site. Overall, tourists that indicated the highest risk and evacuation ratings were not previously affected by a hurricane, had a trip duration of less than 6 days, and had checked for the possibility of a hurricane strike before departure. However, results for other tourist attributes differed between tourists in coastal and inland locations. We found that although somewhat knowledgeable about hurricanes, tourists misinterpreted the track forecast cone and hurricane conditions, which led to a lower perception of risk and subsequent likelihood to evacuate. Tourists, particularly those from outside of Florida, need to be better educated about the risks they face from hurricanes that make landfall.     

The perceived landfall location of evacuees from Hurricane Gustav

Hurricane evacuations in the United States are costly, chaotic, and sometimes unnecessary. Many coastal residents consider evacuation after viewing a forecasted graphic of where the storm is anticipated to make landfall. During the evacuation process, hurricane tracks commonly deviate from the forecasted landfall track and many evacuees may not pay attention to these track deviations after evacuating. Frequently, a disconnect may occur between the actual landfall track, the official forecasted track, and the perceived track of each individual as they made their evacuation decision. Specifically for evacuees, a shift in track may decrease the hazards associated with a landfalling hurricane since evacuees perceive their threat level to be high at the time of evacuation. Using survey data gathered during the evacuation from Hurricane Gustav (2008) in coastal Louisiana (USA), we calculated a type of Z-score to measure the distance error between each evacuee’s perceived landfall location and the actual landfall location from each evacuee’s home zip code. Results indicate a personal landfall bias in the direction of home zip code for evacuees of three metropolitan regions. Evacuees from the greater New Orleans area displayed the highest error, followed by evacuees from greater Lafayette. Furthermore, we validate the authenticity of the previous results by employing two additional methods of error assessment. A large regional error score might possibly be a predictor of evacuation complacency for a future hurricane of similar magnitude, although there are many other variables that must be considered.     

Time to leave: an analysis of travel times during the approach and landfall of Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma caused widespread evacuation activity across Florida and some of its neighboring states in September of 2017. The researchers gathered estimated travel times from the Google Distance Matrix API over about a month to identify and analyze evacuation periods on roads in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina during this time. Travel time data were mathematically adjusted to show more realistic estimations. Both sets of travel times were then graphed, with the assumption that elevated travel times prior to and during hurricane landfall were indicative of evacuation activity. The study generally corroborated the well-established daytime evacuation preference. However, not all evacuation periods followed the daytime travel preference, and at least one nighttime evacuation may have been caused by flooding. In another case, later elevated travel coincided with significant power loss. Finally, the Florida data suggest that most of the evacuation traffic departed before local jurisdictions’ recommended evacuation start times.

     

Cognitive and affective responses of Florida tourists after exposure to hurricane warning messages

Tourists are particularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as hurricanes since they might be less informed and prepared than residents of disaster-prone areas. Thus, understanding how the traits of a tropical cyclone as well as specific characteristics of tourists influence affective and cognitive responses to a hurricane warning message is a critical component in disaster planning. Using scenarios that presented tropical cyclones with different relevant characteristics (such as category at landfall), tourists’ knowledge, experience with hurricanes, trip traits, and the location of the survey (coastal or inland), this study contributes to the literature on sociological issues related to natural disasters. The findings suggest that risk perceptions and fear are influenced differently by the traits of the hurricanes and tourists’ knowledge and experience. Risk is strongly influenced by the projected category of the hurricane at landfall, while fear is not as sensitive to this extremely relevant trait of cyclones. The results also suggest that the influence of risk and fear on evacuation likelihood is strong and positive. This study shows the value of studying cognitive and affective responses to uncertain events.     

Highway congestion during evacuation: examining the household’s choice of number of vehicles to evacuate

Hurricane evacuations in coastal counties have been reviewed and analyzed for the role of household preparedness and decisions before and during a disaster. However, one of the several emerging problems in the hurricane evacuation is transportation. Transportation issues have become more important in coastal evacuations as traffic problems impinge on people’s ability to get out of harm’s way and ultimately influence their decisions to evacuate. To add to the complexity, when families evacuate in multiple vehicles, it leads to additional vehicular traffic on roads and increased pressure on the transportation systems. However, little has been investigated on the characteristics that influence a household’s decision to evacuate in one or multiple vehicles. The outcome from such an analysis can help both the emergency managers and the transportation planners to targets groups that report taking more vehicles to develop policies that result in efficient evacuation. This study investigates the responses of evacuees surveyed after Hurricane Rita in the counties of Galveston, Brazoria and Harris County. The ordinary least square regression analysis revealed that access to transportation characteristics of a household such as number of registered vehicles in a household and number of eligible drivers was positively and significantly related to evacuating in more vehicles. Meanwhile, the risk of reaching destination safely was negatively related to taking more vehicles for evacuation even though both the risk index and deterrence index were positively significant. The time of decision and evacuation did not report any statistical significance.     

Hurricane preparedness and planning in coastal public school districts in the United States

One hundred school districts were surveyed along the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts from North Carolina to Texas. Nearly all had recent experience with a tropical storm or hurricane and had hurricane plans in place. About half teach hurricane preparedness to students and 85 % train staff members in hurricane preparedness. Sources of information about cyclone threats were the National Hurricane Center (91 %), local television news (74 %), The Weather Channel (67 %), and the internet (67 %). Only 36 % would cancel classes for a hurricane warning but 89 % would cancel classes for a mandatory evacuation. Most districts (75 %) would use schools as storm shelters, and 92 % would use school busses to assist in community evacuations. Districts with a higher percentage of Hispanic population provided hurricane information in Spanish. Larger school districts were less likely to cancel classes in the middle of the day for a storm threat. Districts with higher home values were less likely to use school busses for evacuations, and smaller school districts were less likely to provide schools as storm shelters. There were no other significant associations between hurricane preparedness of the districts and district demographic variables of poverty, percent black, percent Hispanic, population, district size, or median home values.     

Bi-level optimization for risk-based regional hurricane evacuation planning

Almost all engineering evacuation models define the objective as minimizing the time required to clear the region or total travel time, thus making an implicit assumption that who will or should evacuate is known. Conservatively evacuating everyone who may be affected may be the best strategy for a given storm, but there is a growing recognition that in some places that strategy is no longer viable and in any case, may not be the best alternative by itself. Here, we introduce a new bi-level optimization that reframes the decision more broadly. The upper level develops an evacuation plan that describes, as a hurricane approaches, who should stay and who should leave and when, so as to minimize both risk and travel time. The lower level is a dynamic user equilibrium (DUE) traffic assignment model. The model includes four novel features: (1) it refocuses the decision on the objectives of minimizing both risk and travel time; (2) it allows direct comparison of more alternatives, including for the first time, sheltering-in-place; (3) it uses a hurricane-scenario-based analysis that explicitly represents the critically important uncertainty in hurricane track, intensity, and speed; and (4) it includes a new DUE algorithm that is efficient enough for full-scale hurricane evacuation applications. The model can be used both to provide an evacuation plan and to evaluate a plan’s performance in terms of risk and travel time, assuming the plan is implemented and a specified hurricane scenario then actually occurs. We demonstrate the model with a full-scale case study for Eastern North Carolina.     

Tsunami risk reduction for densely populated Southeast Asian cities: analysis of vehicular and pedestrian evacuation for the city of Padang, Indonesia, and assessment of interventions

A major tsunamigenic earthquake is expected in the near future along the coast of West Sumatra Province of Indonesia. In the city of Padang, the arrival time of the tsunami is expected to be ~30 min. Currently, there are approximately 400,000 people in the city living within the potential inundation zone. This study aimed to complement the existing research in appraising possible risk reduction interventions, specifically looking at enabling the timely evacuation of the area. This research, developed in consultation with national and local authorities, emergency planners and NGOs, analysed interventions for tsunami risk reduction in Padang through the development of a pedestrian and vehicular evacuation model and the appraisal of possible solutions to enhance the evacuation rates. Some of the conclusions from this research can be applied to other areas in Southeast Asia where the traffic patterns are similar to those in Padang and where the distance to safety is greater than 4–5 km. For the case of Padang, the results show that pedestrian evacuation is strongly preferable to vehicular evacuation due to the limited road capacity and the high population density. In the present situation, however, 70–80 % of the population in Padang could not evacuate within 30 min, even by foot. Common interventions such as widening roads and building bridges prove to be relatively ineffective in this case due to the large distance that has to be covered in a short time. These interventions would only have a decisive impact if a longer evacuation time was available (more than 60 min). In the case of Padang, the evacuation rate in the first 30 min is strongly dependent on the presence/absence of evacuation shelters, whose effectiveness is limited by the capacity of the structures. Building a few high-capacity and high-resilience structures such as evacuation hills is a more effective and robust evacuation strategy than constructing many small high-raised buildings. Even with evacuation structures, wider roads and bridges, about 20 % of the population would still be unable to reach safety by the time the tsunami arrives. This means about 70,000 people of Padang’s current population, which is rapidly increasing. The building of evacuation shelters may be a viable option for saving lives in the short term, but it is not a sustainable option in the medium to long term. It is therefore also necessary to set up and enforce regulations for land use planning that take into account the tsunami risk and prevent further urban development for the areas that may be affected by a tsunami.     

Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay

Using a high resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, finite volume coastal ocean model with flooding and drying capabilities, supported by a merged bathymetric-topographic data set and driven by prototypical hurricane winds and atmospheric pressure fields, we investigated the storm surge responses for the Tampa Bay, Florida, vicinity and their sensitivities to point of landfall, direction and speed of approach, and intensity. All of these factors were found to be important. Flooding potential by wind stress and atmospheric pressure induced surge is significant for a category 2 hurricane and catastrophic for a category 4 hurricane. Tide, river, and wave effects are additive, making the potential for flood-induced damage even greater. Since storm surge sets up as a slope to the sea surface, the highest surge tends to occur over the upper reaches of the bay, Old Tampa Bay and Hillsborough Bay in particular. For point of landfall sensitivity, the worst case is when the hurricane center is positioned north of the bay mouth such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall are at the bay mouth. Northerly (southerly) approaching storms yield larger (smaller) surges since the winds initially set up (set down) water level. As a hybrid between the landfall and direction sensitivity experiments, a storm transiting up the bay axis from southwest to northeast yields the smallest surge, debunking a misconception that this is the worst Tampa Bay flooding case. Hurricanes with slow (fast) translation speeds yield larger (smaller) surges within Tampa Bay due to the time required to redistribute mass.     

Impact and response of southwest Florida mangroves to the 2004 hurricane season

Although hurricane disturbance is a natural occurrence in mangrove forests, the effect of widespread human alterations on the resiliency of estuarine habitats is unknown. The resiliency of mangrove forests in southwest Florida to the 2004 hurricane season was evaluated by determining the immediate response of mangroves to a catastrophic hurricane in areas with restricted and unrestricted tidal connections. The landfall of Hurricane Charley, a category 4 storm, left pronounced disturbances to mangrove forests on southwest Florida barrier islands. A significant and negative relationship between canopy loss and distance from the eyewall was observed. While a species-specific response to the hurricane was expected, no significant differences were found among species in the size of severely impacted trees. In the region farthest from the eyewall, increases in canopy density indicated that refoliation and recovery occurred relatively quickly. There were no increases or decreases in canopy density in regions closer to the eyewall where there were complete losses of crown structures. In pre-hurricane surveys, plots located in areas of management concern (i.e., restricted connection) had significantly lower stem diameter at breast height and higher stem densities than plots with unrestricted connection. These differences partially dictated the severity of effect from the hurricane. There were also significantly lower red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) seedling densities in plots with restricted connections. These observations suggest that delays in forest recovery are possible in severely impacted areas if either the delivery of propagules or the production of seedlings is reduced by habitat fragmentation.     

A qualitative study of mobile home resident perspectives on tornadoes and tornado protective actions in South Carolina,USA

Occupants of mobile or manufactured homes in the United States of America (USA) are highly exposed and susceptible to injury or death from tornado hazards. This problem is most pronounced in the southern and eastern USA, where tornadoes are frequent and mobile homes comprise upwards of 15 % of the housing stock. Recognizing this vulnerability, emergency management entities and the USA National Weather Service often recommend that mobile home residents evacuate to a nearby sturdy building or a specially-built tornado shelter when tornadoes threaten their communities. Previous research suggests, however, that only 30 % of residents follow this recommendation. In this research I aim to provide insight as to why many mobile home residents seldom undertake the suggested course of action for tornadoes. Using excerpts from twenty semi-structured interviews conducted during 2013 in South Carolina, I show that some individuals understand physical characteristics of tornadoes very differently than experts do. In addition, mobile home residents may also hold views that differ from experts about the ability of their homes to withstand tornadic winds and debris. Even if mobile home occupants pay close attention to thunderstorm hazards and might be willing to evacuate, they may prioritize protective actions for lightning or flash flooding over those recommended for tornadoes. Finally, the interviews reveal that there is much confusion over where to go, when to leave, and which route to take to arrive safely at a sheltering place for tornado hazards. I discuss some of the potential ramifications of the findings for theory and practice and suggest how future research might build on this work.     

Erratum to: Assessment of coastal communities’ vulnerability to floods using indicator-based approach: a case study of Greater Accra Metropolitan Area,Ghana

In this paper, the extent to which the potentially transit-dependent portion of the population is vulnerable to the effects of a hurricane is estimated. The vulnerability of an area is defined as a composite measure of the proportion of disadvantaged persons, distance to transit, and flooding potential of people within an area. Unlike past studies which have focused on the vulnerability of the population in relatively large geographic areas, this study estimates the vulnerability of the population in 30 m × 30 m areas as defined in the National Land Cover Database. Population estimates from the national census at block level are disaggregated to the 30 m × 30 m units using a modified dasymetric mapping method in ArcGIS. The modified mapping method assigns population to each small areal unit using weights estimated by regressing the area of each land use in a census block against the population in that block. The coefficients in the regression analysis are “weights” associating population with each land use, and are used to distribute the population in each census block to the small geographic units based on their land use. In a case study of New Orleans, the results show that some areas are not well served by the existing transit pickup locations, as evidenced by their high vulnerability scores. Reassignment of pickup point locations to cover higher vulnerability score areas was investigated using integer linear programming. The results show that the optimally located pickup points serve areas with a larger average vulnerability score than the current pickup points in the study area. The method appears to be helpful in identifying vulnerable areas that, subsequently, could receive improved hurricane evacuation service in the future.     

Tsunami evacuation behavior of coastal residents in Kochi Prefecture during the 2014 Iyonada Earthquake

The 2014 Iyonada Earthquake, which occurred at 02:06 JST on 14 March, measured 6.2 on the Richter scale and originated in the Seto Inland Sea of Japan. To elucidate tsunami evacuation behavior, we examined two coastal communities in Kochi Prefecture, Okitsu and Mangyo, where residents evacuated to high ground in anticipation of a tsunami. In the event of a Nankai megathrust earthquake and tsunami, it is expected that a huge tsunami will be generated and these communities will be severely damaged. Before the Iyonada Earthquake, we had previously collected data about tsunami preparedness and evacuation plans from the residents of these communities, and after the earthquake, we conducted in-depth interviews and questionnaire surveys with the residents regarding the actual evacuation behaviors that they took. This enabled us to compare evacuation plans with evacuation behaviors. Results indicate that many residents responded quickly to the earthquake, either by immediately evacuating to emergency shelters on high ground or by preparing themselves for evacuation. Additionally, the earthquake revealed great differences between the prior evacuation plans and the actual situation of residents’ evacuation, such as specific triggers that significantly led residents to evacuate and the use of vehicles in evacuation.     

Effects of Hurricane Ivan on water quality in Pensacola Bay, Florida

Pensacola Bay, Florida, was in the strong northeast quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow pulse that followed the storm. We computed the magnitude of tidal flushing associated with the surge using a tidal prism model. We also evaluated hurricane effects on water quality using water quality surveys conducted 20 and 50 d after the storm, which we compared with a survey 14 d before landfall. We evaluated the scale of hurricane effects relative to normal variability using a 5-yr monthly record. Ivan's 3.5 m storm surge inundated 165 km² of land, increasing the surface area of Pensacola Bay by 50% and its volume by 230%. The model suggests that 60% of the Bay's volume was flushed, initially increasing the average salinity of Bay waters from 23 to 30 and lowering nutrient and chlorophylla concentrations. Additional computations suggest that wind forcing was sufficient to completely mix the water column during the storm. Freshwater discharge from the largest river increased twentyfold during the subsequent 4 d, stimulating a modest phytoplankton bloom (chlorophyll up to 18 μg l⁻¹) and maintaining hypoxia for several months. Although the immediate physical perturbation was extreme, the water quality effects that persisted beyond the first several days were within the normal range of variability for this system. In terms of water quality and phytoplankton productivity effects, this ecosystem appears to be quite resilient in the face of a severe hurricane effect.     

Benthic Community Structure and Sediment Properties in Barnegat Bay,New Jersey,Before and After Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was an extraordinarily large storm that affected most of the eastern coast of the USA in October 2012. To assess this storm’s impact, the benthic invertebrate community structure and sediment properties were compared in samples collected 3.5 months prior to (July 2012) and 8 months after (July 2013) the hurricane at 97 locations in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, USA. Barnegat Bay is a shallow back-barrier estuary just north of where Sandy made landfall. For all locations taken together, sediment total nitrogen concentration was lower afterwards, while total organic carbon and total phosphorus concentrations were similar. Sediment median particle size was the same before and after, but the sediment was better sorted after the storm. There were no differences in total abundance of invertebrates, species richness, species diversity, or the abundance of polychaetes, bivalves, or gastropods. Malacostracan crustaceans were more abundant after Sandy (average 82 (0.04 m²)^?1) than they were before (average 64), due almost entirely to increased abundance of ampeliscid amphipods, which showed a shift toward smaller sizes in 2013. Annelids in the order Clitellata were on average less abundant after the hurricane (17) than before (53). The apparent minimal effect of Sandy on the benthic community in Barnegat Bay was probably because the passage of the hurricane had no detectable effects on salinity or dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout the bay.     

The effects of transportation network failure on people’s accessibility to hurricane disaster relief goods: a modeling approach and application to a Florida case study

Following the catastrophic and devastating Atlantic Hurricane seasons in 2004 and 2005, there has been increased interest in formulating planning directives and policy aimed at minimizing the societal impacts of future storms. Not all populations will evacuate an area forecast to be affected by a hurricane, so emergency managers must plan for these people who remain behind. Such planning includes making food, water, ice, and other provisions available at strategic locations throughout an affected area. Recent research has tackled problems related to humanitarian and relief goods distribution with respect to hurricanes. Experience shows that the torrential rains and heavy winds associated with hurricanes can severely damage transportation network infrastructure rendering it unusable. Scanning the literature on hurricane disaster relief provision, there are no studies that expressly consider the potential damage that may be caused to a transportation network by strong storms. This paper examines the impacts of simulated network failures on hurricane disaster relief planning strategies, using a smaller Florida City as an example. A relief distribution protocol is assumed where goods distribution points are set up in pre-determined locations following the passage of a storm. Simulation results reveal that modest disruptions to the transportation network produce marked changes in the number and spatial configuration of relief facilities. At the same time, the transportation network appears to be robust and is able to support relief service provision even at elevated levels of hypothesized disruption.     

Indirect Hurricane Effects on Resource Availability and Microbial Communities in a Subtropical Wetland-Estuary Transition Zone

Three sequential hurricanes made landfall over the South Florida peninsula in August and September 2004. The storm systems passed north of the Everglades wetlands and northeastern Florida Bay, but indirect storm effects associated with changes in freshwater discharge during an otherwise drought year occurred across the wetland–estuary transition area. To assess the impacts of the 2004 hurricane series on hydrology, nutrients, and microbial communities in the Everglades wetlands to Florida Bay transition area, results are presented in the context of a seasonal cycle without hurricane activity (2003). Tropical activity in 2004 increased rainfall over South Florida and the study area, thereby temporarily relieving drought conditions. Not so much actual rainfall levels at the study site but more so water management practices in preparation of the hurricane threats, which include draining of an extensive freshwater canal system into the coastal ocean to mitigate inland flooding, rapidly reversed hypersalinity in the wetlands-estuary study area. Although annual discharge was comparable in both years, freshwater discharge in 2004 occurred predominantly during the late wet season, whereas discharge was distributed evenly over the 2003 wet season. Total organic carbon (TOC), ammonium ( \operatornameNH ⁺ ₄ \operatorname{NH} ^{ + }_{4} ), and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations increased during the hurricane series to concentrations two to five times higher than long-term median concentrations in eastern Florida Bay. Spatiotemporal patterns in these resource enrichments suggest that TOC and SRP originated from the Everglades mangrove ecotone, while \operatornameNH ⁺ ₄ \operatorname{NH} ^{ + }_{4} originated from the bay. Phytoplankton biomass in the bay increased significantly during storm-related freshwater discharge, but declined at the same time in the wetland mangrove ecotone from bloom conditions during the preceding drought. In the bay, these changes were associated with increased nanophytoplankton and decreased picophytoplankton biomass. Heterotrophic bacterial production increased in response to freshwater discharge, whereas bacterial abundance decreased. Hydrochemical and microbial changes were short-lived, and the wetland–bay transition area reverted to more typical oligotrophic conditions within 3 months after the hurricanes. These results suggest that changes in freshwater discharge after drought conditions and during the hurricane series forced the productivity and P-enriched characteristics of the wetland’s mangrove ecotone, although only briefly, to the south into Florida Bay.     

The disruption and recovery of fish communities in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, following two hurricanes in 2004

During the summer of 2004, four hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) affected Florida between August 13 and September 27. Two storms (Frances: category 2 and Jeanne: category 3) made landfall in the southern portion of the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) on the east-central coast of Florida. The presence of Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission's long-term fisheries monitoring program in the IRL provided a unique opportunity to examine the effects of large tropical events on estuarine fish communities. Increased sampling efforts to monitor the effects of tropical disturbances on the fish community within the IRL and one of its major tributaries (St. Sebastian River) were initiated within days after the passing of the last hurricane (Jeanne). The objectives of the study were to characterize changes to the composition of the fish community within the lagoon and river immediately after the passage of two hurricanes, and to examine the recovery of the fish communities. Analyses indicated that immediately after the last hurricane passed, community diversity within the estuary decreased following these storms due to the absence of many marine species, whereas the fish community within the St. Sebastian River shifted to one containing a greater percentage of freshwater species. Recovery of the community structure to pre-hurricane conditions was evident within several weeks following the last hurricane, and by mid December 2004 (ca. 3 mo after the last storm), there was little difference between the pre-hurricane and post-hurricane fish communities.     

Natural Environmental Changes versus Human Impact in a Florida Estuary (Rookery Bay, USA)

Assessing the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activity on Florida coastal areas requires a thorough understanding of natural climate variability. The available instrumental record, however, is too short and too limited to capture the full range of natural variability. In order to provide additional data on the natural state of the climate system and to evaluate the influence of human impact, we reconstructed climatic and environmental changes of the past 300 years. Pre- (before 1900 ad) and post-human impact conditions were compared in Rookery Bay, a subtropical, southern Florida estuary and its bordering wetland system. Biomarkers from terrestrial and aquatic environments were used to reconstruct temperature, runoff, and aquatic productivity. Pre-anthropogenic conditions before 1750 ad indicate a relatively large contribution of mangrove-derived organic matter, locally decreasing at the end of this period. After 1750 ad follows a relatively stable period in which biomarker concentrations indicate relatively low levels of runoff and aquatic production. Enhanced anthropogenic activities, such as land clearance and hydrological alterations, end this period of stability by altering the hydrological conditions. This leads to a more dynamic system which is more sensitive to disturbances of vegetation and drainage, as evidenced by peak terrestrial biomarker fluxes during the twentieth century. These episodes of enhanced runoff resulted in eutrophication and algal blooms in Rookery Bay. Natural climate phenomena, such as a positive AMO phase and hurricane activity, might have added to ongoing processes during the twentieth century.