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1.
There is evidence that the observed changes in winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drive a significant portion of Atlantic Multi Decadal Variability (AMV). However, whether the observed decadal NAO changes can be forced by the ocean is controversial. There is also evidence that artificially imposed multi-decadal stratospheric changes can impact the troposphere in winter. But the origins of such stratospheric changes are still unclear, especially in early to mid winter, where the radiative ozone-impact is negligible. Here we show, through observational analysis and atmospheric model experiments, that large-scale Atlantic warming associated with AMV drives high-latitude precursory stratospheric warming in early to mid winter that propagates downward resulting in a negative tropospheric NAO in late winter. The mechanism involves stratosphere/troposphere dynamical coupling, and can be simulated to a large extent, but only with a stratosphere resolving model (i.e., high-top). Further analysis shows that this precursory stratospheric response can be explained by the shift of the daily extremes toward more major stratospheric warming events. This shift cannot be simulated with the atmospheric (low-top) model configuration that poorly resolves the stratosphere and implements a sponge layer in upper model levels. While the potential role of the stratosphere in multi-decadal NAO and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation changes has been recognised, our results show that the stratosphere is an essential element of extra-tropical atmospheric response to ocean variability. Our findings suggest that the use of stratosphere resolving models should improve the simulation, prediction, and projection of extra-tropical climate, and lead to a better understanding of natural and anthropogenic climate change.  相似文献   

2.
The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is linked to surface weather. After Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in winter, the tropospheric circulation is often nudged towards the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A strong stratospheric vortex is often associated with subsequent positive NAM/NAO conditions. For stratosphere?Ctroposphere associations to be useful for forecasting purposes it is crucial that changes to the stratospheric vortex can be understood and predicted. Recent studies have proposed that there exist tropospheric precursors to anomalous vortex events in the stratosphere and that these precursors may be understood by considering the relationship between stationary wave patterns and regional variability. Another important factor is the extent to which the inherent variability of the stratosphere in an atmospheric model influences its ability to simulate stratosphere?Ctroposphere links. Here we examine the lower stratosphere variability in 300-year pre-industrial control integrations from 13 coupled climate models. We show that robust precursors to stratospheric polar vortex anomalies are evident across the multi-model ensemble. The most significant tropospheric component of these precursors consists of a height anomaly dipole across northern Eurasia and large anomalies in upward stationary wave fluxes in the lower stratosphere over the continent. The strength of the stratospheric variability in the models was found to depend on the variability of the upward stationary wave fluxes and the amplitude of the stationary waves.  相似文献   

3.
南极涛动和北半球大气环流异常的联系   总被引:5,自引:2,他引:3  
宋洁  李崇银 《大气科学》2009,33(4):847-858
使用ECMWF逐日再分析资料分析研究了北半球冬季南极涛动和北半球大气环流异常之间的联系。资料的分析结果表明, 南极涛动和滞后其25~40天位于北大西洋地区的一个弱的类似于北大西洋涛动 (North Atlantic Oscillation, 简称NAO) 的偶极子模态, 以及伴随这一偶极子模态而出现的北半球中纬度纬向风异常之间存在着统计上的联系。处于正 (负) 位相的南极涛动对应着滞后25~40天后, 北大西洋高纬极区出现位势高度负 (正) 异常, 副热带大西洋出现位势高度正 (负) 异常; 同时, 在北半球中高纬度地区(45°N~65°N) 出现西 (东) 风异常, 中低纬度地区(25°N~40°N)出现东 (西) 风异常。文中也对资料分析结果进行了简单的动力学分析, 表明与南极涛动相联系的涡动动量异常是驱动北半球纬向平均纬向风异常的主要原因。  相似文献   

4.
Accurate seasonal forecasts rely on the presence of low frequency, predictable signals in the climate system which have a sufficiently well understood and significant impact on the atmospheric circulation. In the Northern European region, signals associated with seasonal scale variability such as ENSO, North Atlantic SST anomalies and the North Atlantic Oscillation have not yet proven sufficient to enable satisfactorily skilful dynamical seasonal forecasts. The winter-time circulations of the stratosphere and troposphere are highly coupled. It is therefore possible that additional seasonal forecasting skill may be gained by including a realistic stratosphere in models. In this study we assess the ability of five seasonal forecasting models to simulate the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical winter-time stratospheric circulation. Our results show that all of the models have a polar night jet which is too weak and displaced southward compared to re-analysis data. It is shown that the models underestimate the number, magnitude and duration of periods of anomalous stratospheric circulation. Despite the poor representation of the general circulation of the stratosphere, the results indicate that there may be a detectable tropospheric response following anomalous circulation events in the stratosphere. However, the models fail to exhibit any predictability in their forecasts. These results highlight some of the deficiencies of current seasonal forecasting models with a poorly resolved stratosphere. The combination of these results with other recent studies which show a tropospheric response to stratospheric variability, demonstrates a real prospect for improving the skill of seasonal forecasts.  相似文献   

5.
This paper explores the role of synoptic eddy feedback in the air-sea interaction in the North Atlantic region, particularly the interaction between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) tripole. A linearized five-layer primitive equation atmospheric model with synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow (SELF) interaction is coupled with a linearized oceanic mixed-layer model to investigate this issue. In this model, the “climatological” storm track/activity (or synoptic eddy activity) is characterized in terms of spatial structures, variances, decay time scales and propagation speeds through the complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis on the observed data, which provides a unique tool to investigate the role of synoptic eddy feedback in the North Atlantic air–sea coupling. Model experiments show that the NAO-like atmospheric circulation anomalies can produce tripole-like SSTA in the North Atlantic Ocean, and the tripole-like SSTA can excite a NAO-like dipole with an equivalent barotropic structure in the atmospheric circulation, which suggests a positive feedback between the NAO and the SSTA tripole. This positive feedback makes the NAO/SSTA tripole-like mode be the leading mode of the coupled dynamical system. The synoptic eddy feedback plays an essential role in the origin of the NAO/SSTA tripole-like leading mode and the equivalent barotropic structure in the atmosphere. Without synoptic eddy feedback, the atmosphere has a baroclinic structure in the response field to the tripole-like SSTA forcing, and the leading mode of the dynamic system does not resemble NAO/SSTA tripole pattern.  相似文献   

6.
Summary Investigation of long-term measurements of winter mesosphere/lower thermosphere (MLT) region zonal winds has shown a connection of northern hemisphere tropospheric parameters and MLT conditions. These are on one hand due to a connection of the stratospheric polar vortex and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and on the other hand forced by a coupling of the troposphere/lower stratosphere and the MLT region through planetary wave propagation and wave-mean flow interaction. The connection between European and Asian winter climatological parameters and the NAO leads to the fact, that the signal of Eurasian winter conditions can be found in the interannual variability of MLT winds. Some of these winter tropospheric parameters influence the strength of the Indian monsoon in the following summer, and this leads to a correlation between winter MLT winds and summer Indian rainfall, so that the midlatitude MLT winter dynamics can be used as a precursory signal of the strength of the Indian monsoon. Received July 21, 1998 Revised November 1, 1999  相似文献   

7.
The interplay between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the large scale ocean circulation is inspected in a twentieth century simulation conducted with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model. Significant lead–lag covariance between oceanic and tropospheric variables suggests that the system supports a damped oscillatory mode involving an active ocean–atmosphere coupling, with a typical NAO-like space structure and a 5 years timescale, qualitatively consistent with a mid-latitude delayed oscillator paradigm. The two essential processes governing the oscillation are (1) a negative feedback between ocean gyre circulation and the high latitude SST meridional gradient and (2) a positive feedback between SST and the NAO. The atmospheric NAO pattern appears to have a weaker projection on the ocean meridional overturning, compared to the gyre circulation, which leads to a secondary role for the thermohaline circulation in driving the meridional heat transport, and thus the oscillatory mode.  相似文献   

8.
This paper examines an asymmetric spatiotemporal connection and climatic impact between the winter atmospheric blocking activity in the Euro-Atlantic sector and the life cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) during the period 1950–2012. Results show that, for positive NAO(NAO+) events, the instantaneous blocking(IB) frequency exhibits an enhancement along the southwest–northeast(SW–NE) direction from the eastern Atlantic to northeastern Europe(SW–NE pattern, hereafter), which is particularly evident during the NAO+decaying stage. By contrast, for negative NAO(NAO-)events, the IB frequency exhibits a spatially asymmetric southeast–northwest(SE–NW) distribution from central Europe to the North Atlantic and Greenland(SE–NW pattern, hereafter). Moreover, for NAO-(NAO+) events, the most marked decrease(increase) in the surface air temperature(SAT) in winter over northern Europe is in the decaying stage. For NAO+events, the dominant positive temperature and precipitation anomalies exhibit the SW–NE-oriented distribution from western to northeastern Europe, which is parallel to the NAO+-related blocking frequency distribution. For NAO-events, the dominant negative temperature anomaly is in northern and central Europe, whereas the dominant positive precipitation anomaly is distributed over southern Europe along the SW–NE direction. In addition, the downward infrared radiation controlled by the NAO's circulation plays a crucial role in the SAT anomaly distribution. It is further shown that the NAO's phase can act as an asymmetric impact on the European climate through producing this asymmetric spatiotemporal connection with the Euro-Atlantic IB frequency.  相似文献   

9.
Three striking and impactful extreme cold weather events successively occurred across East Asia and North America during the mid-winter of 2020/21.These events open a new window to detect possible underlying physical processes.The analysis here indicates that the occurrences of the three events resulted from integrated effects of a concurrence of anomalous thermal conditions in three oceans and interactive Arctic-lower latitude atmospheric circulation processes,which were linked and influenced by one major sudden stratospheric warming(SSW).The North Atlantic warm blob initiated an increased poleward transient eddy heat flux,reducing the Barents-Kara seas sea ice over a warmed ocean and disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)to induce the major SSW.The Rossby wave trains excited by the North Atlantic warm blob and the tropical Pacific La Nina interacted with the Arctic tropospheric circulation anomalies or the tropospheric polar vortex to provide dynamic settings,steering cold polar air outbreaks.The long memory of the retreated sea ice with the underlying warm ocean and the amplified tropospheric blocking highs from the midlatitudes to the Arctic intermittently fueled the increased transient eddy heat flux to sustain the SSW over a long time period.The displaced or split SPV centers associated with the SSW played crucial roles in substantially intensifying the tropospheric circulation anomalies and moving the jet stream to the far south to cause cold air outbreaks to a rarely observed extreme state.The results have significant implications for increasing prediction skill and improving policy decision making to enhance resilience in“One Health,One Future”.  相似文献   

10.
The middle- and high-latitude stratospheric and mesospheric wind field in winter is dominated by the stratospheric polar vortex, which reaches up into the mesopause region and leads to westerly winds there in winter. The tropospheric mean winter wind field is also connected with the stratospheric polar vortex, which thus can be considered as extending from the lower up to the upper atmosphere. We found that the January and February zonal winds of the mesopause region, as measured at the Collm Observatory of the University of Leipzig, are closely connected with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which can be considered as a measure for part of the northern hemispheric mean circulation in the Atlantic and Europe domain, since it influences the circulation over that domain. The NAO itself is considered to be a measure for Central Europe winter winds and temperatures, since large NAO indices are connected with stronger westerlies in Central Europe. Thus, the mesopause region winds are also positively correlated to the Central European winter surface temperatures.  相似文献   

11.
两类ENSO对中国北方冬季平均气温和极端低温的不同影响   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
汪子琪  张文君  耿新 《气象学报》2017,75(4):564-580
利用1961-2012年观测、再分析资料以及全球大气环流模式数值试验,探讨了中国北方冬季平均气温对于不同类型(即东部型和中部型)ENSO事件的气候响应,并分析了不同类型ENSO对极端低温事件的可能影响,重点关注了北大西洋涛动(NAO)在其中的桥梁作用。结果表明,ENSO信号能通过调制北大西洋地区的大气环流改变欧亚中高纬度地区的纬向温度平流输送和西伯利亚高压的强度,进而影响中国北方冬季气温,由于不同类型ENSO事件海温分布的差异,这种影响具有明显的非线性特征。在两类厄尔尼诺和东部型拉尼娜事件冬季,北大西洋涛动均呈现负位相,不利于北大西洋的暖湿空气向欧亚大陆输送,西伯利亚高压偏强,因而中国北方地区较气候态偏冷。中部型厄尔尼诺和东部型拉尼娜事件冬季气温负异常的显著区域分别位于东北大范围地区、内蒙古河套附近;东部型厄尔尼诺事件冬季显著的冷异常信号仅局限于黑龙江北部与大兴安岭地区;而中部型拉尼娜事件冬季虽伴随北大西洋涛动正位相,但其空间结构向西偏移,对下游中国北方地区气温的直接影响并不显著,可能受局地信号干扰较大。数值试验再现了北大西洋涛动以及中国北方冬季气温对不同类型ENSO的响应,进一步佐证了上述结论。此外,两类厄尔尼诺事件冬季中国东北地区日平均气温容易偏低,极端低温事件的发生频次增多;而两类拉尼娜事件对极端低温的影响较弱。   相似文献   

12.
The response of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) to a persistent positive (or negative) phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is investigated using an ocean general circulation model forced with idealized atmospheric reanalysis fields. The integrations are analyzed with reference to a base-line integration for which the model is forced with idealized fields representing a neutral state of the NAO. In the positive NAO case, the results suggest that the well-known cooling and strengthening of the SPG are, after about 10 years, replaced by a warming and subsequent weakening of the SPG. The latter changes are caused by the advection of warm water from the subtropical gyre (STG) region, driven by a spin-up of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the effect of an anomalous wind stress curl in the northeastern North Atlantic, which counteracts the local buoyancy forcing of the SPG. In the negative NAO case, however, the SPG response does not involve a sign reversal, but rather shows a gradual weakening throughout the integration. The asymmetric SPG-response to the sign of persistent NAO-like forcing and the different time scales involved demonstrate strong non-linearity in the North Atlantic Ocean circulation response to atmospheric forcing. The latter finding indicates that analysis based on the arithmetic difference between the two NAO-states, e.g. NAO+ minus NAO?, may hide important aspects of the ocean response to atmospheric forcing.  相似文献   

13.
利用1979—2017年TropFlux海气热通量资料、ERA5再分析资料及HadISST资料,分析了冬季北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO)与同期热带印度洋海气热通量的关系。结果表明,NAO指数与热带印度洋海气净热通量整体上呈负相关,意味着NAO为正位相时,海洋向大气输送热量,其显著区域主要位于热带西印度洋(50°~70°E,10°S~10°N)。净热通量的变化主要依赖于潜热通量和短波辐射的变化;潜热通量和短波辐射在NAO正(负)位相事件期间的贡献率分别为72.96%和61.48%(71.72%和57.06%)。NAO可通过Rossby波列影响印度洋地区局地大气环流,进而影响海气热通量;当NAO为正位相时,波列沿中低纬路径传播至印度洋地区,在阿拉伯海北部对流层高层触发异常反气旋环流。该异常反气旋性环流加强了阿拉伯高压,使得北印度洋偏北风及越赤道气流加强。伴随风速的加强,海面蒸发增强,同时加强的越赤道气流导致热带辐合带强度偏强,深对流加强引起对流层水汽和云量增多,进而引起海表下行短波辐射减少。  相似文献   

14.
The seasonal mean extra-tropical atmospheric response to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is assessed in the historical and pre-industrial control CMIP5 simulations. This analysis considers two types of El Niño events, characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in either the central equatorial Pacific (CP) or eastern equatorial Pacific (EP), as well as EP and CP La Niña events, characterized by negative SST anomalies in the same two regions. Seasonal mean geopotential height anomalies in key regions typify the magnitude and structure of the disruption of the Walker circulation cell in the tropical Pacific, upper tropospheric ENSO teleconnections and the polar stratospheric response. In the CMIP5 ensembles, the magnitude of the Walker cell disruption is correlated with the strength of the mid-latitude responses in the upper troposphere i.e., the North Pacific and South Pacific lows strengthen during El Niño events. The simulated responses to El Niño and La Niña have opposite sign. The seasonal mean extra-tropical, upper tropospheric responses to EP and CP events are indistinguishable. The ENSO responses in the MERRA reanalysis lie within the model scatter of the historical simulations. Similar responses are simulated in the pre-industrial and historical CMIP5 simulations. Overall, there is a weak correlation between the strength of the tropical response to ENSO and the strength of the polar stratospheric response. ENSO-related polar stratospheric variability is best simulated in the “high-top” subset of models with a well-resolved stratosphere.  相似文献   

15.
ENSO teleconnections in projections of future climate in ECHAM5/MPI-OM   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
The teleconnections of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in future climate projections are investigated using results of the coupled climate model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. For this, the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and a quadrupled CO2 simulation are considered. It is found that changes of the mean state in the tropical Pacific are likely to condition ENSO teleconnections in the Pacific North America (PNA) region and in the North Atlantic European (NAE) region. With increasing greenhouse gas emissions the changes of the mean states in the tropical and sub-tropical Pacific are El Niño-like in this particular model. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are increased predominantly in its eastern part and redistribute the precipitation further eastward. The dynamical response of the atmosphere is such that the equatorial east–west (Walker) circulation and the eastern Pacific inverse Hadley circulation are decreased. Over the subtropical East Pacific and North Atlantic the 200 hPa westerly wind is substantially increased. Composite maps of different climate parameters for positive and negative ENSO events are used to reveal changes of the ENSO teleconnections. Mean sea level pressure and upper tropospheric zonal winds indicate an eastward shift of the well-known teleconnection patterns in the PNA region and an increasing North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) like response over the NAE region. Surface temperature and precipitation underline this effect, particularly over the North Pacific and the central North Atlantic. Moreover, in the NAE region the 200 hPa westerly wind is increasingly related to the stationary wave activity. Here the stationary waves appear NAO-like.  相似文献   

16.
The two types of El Niño that have been identified, namely the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niños, are known to exert different climatic impacts on the North Atlantic region during winter. Here, we investigate the characteristics of the teleconnection of the two El Niño types with a focus on the stratosphere-troposphere coupling. During the EP El Niño, polar stratospheric warming and polar vortex weakening frequently occur with a strong tendency for downward propagation near the tropopause. Consequently, the atmospheric pattern within the troposphere over the North Atlantic sector during midwinter closely resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation pattern. In contrast, during CP El Niño events stratospheric warming events exhibit a much weaker downward propagation tendency. This difference in the stratospheric circulation response arises from the different seasonal evolution of the tropospheric wave response to the two El Niño types. For the EP El Niño, the Aleutian Low begins growing during December and is sustained throughout the entire winter (December to February), which provides favorable conditions for the continuous downward propagation of the stratospheric warming. We also discuss the origin of the difference in the teleconnections from the two types of El Niño associated with the distinct longitudinal position of the warm SST anomaly that determines troposphere-stratosphere coupling.  相似文献   

17.
In this study, the association between wintertime temperature anomalies over Northwest China and the weather regime transitions in North Atlantic on synoptic scale is analyzed by using observational surface air temperature(SAT) data and atmospheric reanalysis data. Daily SAT anomaly and duration time are used in order to define SAT anomaly cases. Differences with regard to the circulation anomalies over the Ural Mountains and the upstream North Atlantic area are evident. It is found that the colder than normal SAT is caused by the enhanced Ural high and associated southward flow over Northwest China. Time-lagged composites reveal possible connections between the SAT anomalies and the different development phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO). The Ural highs tend to be strengthened during the negative phase of NAO(NAO–) to Atlantic ridge transition, which are closely related to the downstream-propagating Rossby wave activity. The opposite circulation patterns are observed in the warm SAT cases. A cyclonic circulation anomaly is distinctly enhanced over the Urals during the positive phase of NAO(NAO+) to Scandinavian blocking transition, which would cause warmer SAT over Northwest China. Further analyses suggest that the intensified zonal wind over North Atlantic would favor the NAO– to Atlantic ridge transition, while the weakened zonal wind may be responsible for the transition between NAO+ and Scandinavian blocking.  相似文献   

18.
From 17 November to 27 December 2022, extremely cold snowstorms frequently swept across North America and Eurasia. Diagnostic analysis reveals that these extreme cold events were closely related to the establishment of blocking circulations. Alaska Blocking(AB) and subsequent Ural Blocking(UB) episodes are linked to the phase transition of the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and represent the main atmospheric regimes in the Northern Hemisphere. The downstream dispersion and propagation of Rossby...  相似文献   

19.
Observations show that there was change in interannual North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability in the mid-1970s. This change was characterized by an eastward shift of the NAO action centres, a poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies and a downstream extension of climate anomalies associated with the NAO. The NAO interannual variability for the period after the mid-1970s has an annular mode structure that penetrates deeply into the stratosphere, indicating a strengthened relationship between the NAO and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. In this study we have investigated possible causes of these changes in the NAO by carrying out experiments with an atmospheric GCM. The model is forced either by doubling CO2, or increasing sea surface temperatures (SST), or both. In the case of SST forcing the SST anomaly is derived from a coupled model simulation forced by increasing CO2. Results indicate that SST and CO2 change both force a poleward and eastward shift in the pattern of interannual NAO variability and the associated poleward shift of zonal wind anomalies, similar to the observations. The effect of SST change can be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. The direct effect of CO2 change, in contrast, can not be understood in terms of mean changes in the troposphere. However, there is a significant response in the stratosphere, characterized by a strengthened climatological polar vortex with strongly enhanced interannual variability. In this case, the NAO interannual variability has a strong link with the variability over the North Pacific, as in the annular AO pattern, and is also strongly related to the stratospheric vortex, indicating strengthened stratosphere-troposphere coupling. The similarity of changes in many characteristics of NAO interannual variability between the model response to doubling CO2 and those in observations in the mid-1970s implies that the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere, and the resulting changes in the stratosphere, might have played an important role in the multidecadal change of interannual NAO variability and its associated climate anomalies during the late twentieth century. The weak change in mean westerlies in the troposphere in response to CO2 change implies that enhanced and eastward extended mid-latitude westerlies in the troposphere might not be a necessary condition for the poleward and eastward shift of the NAO action centres in the mid-1970s.  相似文献   

20.
The effects of E1Nifio Modoki events on global ozone concentrations are investigated from 1980 to 2010 E1 Nifio Modoki events cause a stronger Brewer-Dobson (BD) circulation which can transports more ozone-poor air from the troposphere to stratosphere, leading to a decrease of ozone inthe lower-middle stratosphere from 90~S to 90~N. These changes in ozone concentrations reduce stratospheric column ozone. The reduction in stratospheric column ozone during E1 Nifio Modoki events is more pronounced over the tropical eastern Pacific than over other tropical areas because transport of ozone-poor air from middle-high latitudes in both hemispheres to low latitudes is the strongest between 60°W and 120°W. Because of the decrease in stratospheric column ozone during E1 Nifio Modoki events more UV radiation reaches the tropical troposphere leading to significant increases in tropospheric column ozone An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the time series from 1980 to 2010 of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone monthly anomalies reveals that: E1 Nifio Modoki events are associated with the primary EOF modes of both time series. We also found that E1 Nifio Modoki events can affect global ozone more significantly than canonical E1 Nifio events. These results imply that E1 Nifio Modoki is a key contributor to variations in global ozone from 1980 to 2010.  相似文献   

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