关于业务上应用条件对称不稳定相关问题的讨论

条件对称不稳定（CSI）理论常常被用来作为倾斜对流的发展机制之一,在业务上常用来解释与锋面相联系的一条或多条中尺度雨带、雷达图像上观测到的带状雨带的成因等。条件对称不稳定的诊断包括CSI斜率判据、斜升对流有效位能（SCAPE）、湿对称不稳定（MSI）、相当位涡（EPV）等判据。业务预报人员存疑较多的问题是这些方法是否具有一致性并在业务上如何使用。针对上述问题,首先通过与业务预报人员较熟悉的条件不稳定类型作类比,来说明条件对称不稳定两种判据与条件不稳定两种判据的相似性。但在业务使用上,判别条件对称不稳定时多使用CSI斜率判据,即等动量面的坡度大于等位温面坡度而小于等湿球位温面坡度。由于条件对称不稳定通常出现在大气处于几乎饱和的情况下,此时的CSI斜率判据则演变为湿对称不稳定判据,即等动量面坡度小于等湿球位温面坡度。为判别相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据是否具有一致性,文中的推导和实例分析均表明,二维相当位涡实际上是湿对称不稳定判据的另一种表现形式,但是湿对称不稳定判据需主观去比较等相当位温面与等动量面斜率大小,而二维相当位涡则可通过其是否小于0进行客观判断。需注意的是,在与推导条件对称不稳定斜率判据相同的二维坐标下,相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据才具有一致性,将相当位涡扩展到常规坐标下使用三维相当位涡作为湿对称不稳定判据是不可取的。      

回归预报方程优良性的判断

本文列举了基于回归剩余平方和Q的几个自变量选择准则，重点讨论了一种着重预报精度的变量选择准测，并从预报角度对其进行了讨论和比较。     

A treatment for the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition in GCMs

Numerical models of climate have great difficulties with the simulation of marine low clouds in the subtropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. It has been especially difficult to reproduce the observed geographical distributions of the different cloud regimes in those regions. The present study discusses mechanisms proposed in previous works for changing one regime into another. One criterion is based on the theory of stratocumulus destruction through cloud top entrainment instability due to buoyancy reversal—situations in which the mixture of two air parcels becomes denser than either of the original parcels due to evaporation of cloud water. Another criterion is based on the existence of decoupling in the boundary layer. When decoupled, the stratocumulus regime changes to another in which these clouds can still exist together with cumulus. In a LES study, the authors have suggested that a combination of those two criteria can be used to diagnose whether, at a location, the cloud regime corresponds to a well-mixed stratocumulus regime, a shallow cumulus regime, or to a transitional regime where the boundary layer is decoupled. The concept is tested in the framework of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). It is found that several outstanding features of disagreement between simulation and observation can be interpreted as misrepresentations of the cloud regimes by the GCM. A novel criterion for switching among regimes is proposed to alleviate the effects of these misrepresentations.     

Quantitative precipitation forecasts: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach

Medium-term quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) up to several days ahead are required to issue early flood warnings and to allow optimum operation of hydraulic structures or reservoirs. This paper describes an approach which can be seen as an adaptation of deterministic meteorological model outputs. It involves searching for a sample of past situations similar to the current one from a long meteorological archive. The analogy is considered in terms of general circulation patterns over a window covering western Europe. For this restricted sample of days similar to the day at hand, the corresponding sample of observed daily precipitation is extracted for each catchment. The rainfall to be observed during the current day is assumed to follow the same distribution, known from this empirical sample. This provides a probabilistic forecast expressed, for example, by a central quantile and a confidence range. This paper describes the many choices underlying the optimisation of this approach: choice of predictor variables to characterise a meteorological situation, choice of similarity criterion between two situations, criterion for performance evaluation between two versions of the algorithm, etc. This method was calibrated over about 50 catchments located in France, Italy and Spain, using a meteorological and hydrological archive running from 1953 to 1996. Comparisons carried out over a validation sample (1995–1996) with three poor-man methods prove the interest of this approach, in a perfect prognosis context. In real-time operation, the use of forecast instead of observed predictor variables, essentially geopotential fields, produces only a minor decrease in performance. The use of the single-valued central quantile supplemented by the confidence interval provided a QPF that has proved effective and informative on the potential for extreme values.     

On nonlinear stability theorems of 3D quasi-geostrophic flow

Nonlinear stability criteria for quasi-geostrophic zonally symmetric flow are improved by establishing an optimal Poincar′e inequality. The inequality is derived by a variational calculation considering the additional invariant of zonal momentum. When applied to the Eady model in a periodic channel with finite zonal length, the improved nonlinear stability criterion is identical to the linear normal-mode stability criterion provided the channel meridional width is no greater than 0.8605· · · times its channel length (which is the geophysically relevant case).     

Similarity criteria for the application of fluid models to the study of air pollution meteorology

Similarity criteria for modeling atmospheric flows in air and water are reviewed. It is shown that five nondimensional parameters plus a set of nondimensional boundary conditions must be matched in model and prototype. The neglect of the Rossby number can lead to serious errors in modeling of diffusion in a prototype with a length scale greater than about five kilometers. The Reynolds number, the Peclet number and the Reynolds-Schmidt product criteria may be neglected if the model flow is of sufficiently high Reynolds number. The Froude number criterion appears to be the most important. The complete specification of boundary conditions is found to be nebulous, but is discussed in some detail. Over-roughening of the model surface may be necessary to satisfy a roughness Reynolds number criterion. Both air and water appear to be suitable fluids to use as modeling media.On assignment from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United States Department of Commerce.     

Baroclinic Instability in the Generalized Phillips’ Model Part II: Three-layer Model

The nonlinear stability of the three-layer generalized Phillips model, for which the velocity in each layer is constant and the top and bottom surfaces are either rigid or free, is studied by employing Arnol’d’s variational principle and a prior estimate method. The nonlinear stability criteria are established. For com-parison, the linear instability criteria are also obtained by using normal mode method, and the influences of the free parameter, β parameter and curvature in vertical profile of the horizontal velocity on the linear in-stability are discussed by use of the growth rate curves.The comparison between the nonlinear stability criterion and the linear one is made. It is shown that in some cases the two criteria are exactly the same in form, but in other cases, they are different. This phenom-enon, which reveals the nonlinear property of the linear instability features, is explained by the explosive resonant interaction (ERI). When there exists the ERI, i.e., the nonlinear mechanisms play a leading role in the dynamical system, the nonlinear stability criterion is different from the linear one; on the other hand, when there does not exist the ERI, the nonlinear stability criterion is the same as the linear one in form.     

Location errors in QPFs over the Calabria region: Does a multi-model poor man's ensemble over-perform each member?

The aim of this work is to evaluate the quality, in terms of location errors, of multi-model poor man's ensemble (PME) forecasts against the single model ones over the Calabria region. Several strategies were adopted to combine precipitation forecasts by three limited area models (LAMs), namely the mean, the median, and a probabilistic matching approach. The Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) analysis was the method selected to detect and quantify the location errors of the forecast precipitation patterns with respect to the corresponding rain gauge-based analyses. Two best-fit criteria, the minimization of mean squared error and the maximization of correlation coefficient, were chosen for matching forecast and observed features. The ability to forecast correctly the precipitation patterns was then quantified by means of a summary measure, the CRA mean shift (CMS). It condenses the outcomes of the twenty-month CRA analyses with a unique value. A bootstrap procedure was applied to test the statistical significance of differences among CMS indices of LAMs and PMEs. Despite the ensemble forecasts display a general improvement, which results in a lower CMS index, with respect to the single LAMs, such improvement was not statistically significant for most ensembles. When the best-fit criterion is the maximization of correlation coefficient, no ensemble was statistically significant better than single models. Instead when the minimization of mean squared error was chosen as best-fit criterion, two out of four PMEs were significantly better than at least a LAM.     

Arnol’d’s Second Nonlinear Stability Theorem for General Multilayer Quasi-geostrophic Model

Arnol’d’s second nonlinear stability criterion for motions governed by a general multilayer quasi-geostiophic model is established. The model allows arbitrary density jumps and layer thickness, and at the top and the bottom of the fluid, the boundary condition is either free or rigid. The criterion is obtained by the establishment of the upper bounds of disturbance energy and potential enstrophy in terms of the initial disturbance field.     

Stochastic and deterministic multicloud parameterizations for tropical convection

Despite recent advances in supercomputing, current general circulation models poorly represent the variability associated with organized tropical convection. In a recent study, the authors have shown, in the context of a paradigm two baroclinic mode system, that a stochastic multicloud convective parameterization based on three cloud types (congestus, deep and stratiform) can be used to improve the variability and the dynamical structure of tropical convection. Here, the stochastic multicloud model is modified with a lag type stratiform closure and augmented with an explicit mechanism for congestus detrainment moistening. These modifications improve the representation of intermittent coherent structures such as synoptic and mesoscale convective systems. Moreover, the new stratiform-lag closure allows for increased robustness of the coherent features of the model with respect to the amount of stochastic noise and leading to a multi-scale organization of slowly moving waves envelopes in which short-lived and chaotic convective events persist. Congestus cloud decks dominate the suppressed-dry phase of the wave envelopes. The simulations with the new closure have a higher amount of stochastic noise and result in a Walker type circulation with realistic mean and coherent variability which surpasses results of previous deterministic and stochastic multicloud models in the same parameter regime. Further, deterministic mean field limit equations (DMFLE) for the stochastic multicloud model are considered. Aside from providing a link to the deterministic multicloud parameterization, the DMFLE allow a judicious way of determining the amount of deterministic and stochastic “chaos” in the system. It is shown that with the old stratiform heating closure, the stochastic process accounts for most of the chaotic behavior. The simulations with the new stratiform heating closure exhibit a mixture of stochastic and deterministic chaos. The highly chaotic dynamics in the simulations with congestus detrainment mechanism is due to the strongly nonlinear and numerically stiff deterministic dynamics. In the latter two cases, the DMFLE can be viewed as a “standalone” parameterization, which is capable of capturing some dynamical features of the stochastic parameterization. Furthermore, it is shown that, in spatially extended simulations, the stochastic multicloud model can capture qualitatively two local statistical features of the observations: long and short auto-correlation times of moisture and precipitation, respectively and the approximate power-law in the probability density of precipitation event size for large precipitation events. The latter feature is not reproduced in the column simulations. This fact underscores the importance of gravity waves and large scale moisture convergence.     

Reference levels of radioactive contamination of water bodies based on the environmental criteria

Quantitative environmental criteria for the radiation protection of aquatic ecosystems, namely, reference concentrations of radionuclides in water are developed. If activity concentrations of radionuclides do not exceed these levels, aquatic biota can be considered completely protected from the negative effects of ionizing radiation. Reference concentrations of radionuclides in environmental objects can be compared directly with the measurement data on radioactive contamination parameters that allows using them for the monitoring data interpretation. Reference concentrations of anthropogenic radionuclides in the sea and fresh water are calculated using the environmental criteria and are compared to the values of reference concentrations computed using the hygienic criterion. It is demonstrated that the current levels of concentration of ⁹⁰Sr, ¹³⁷Cs, and tritium in the seas, rivers, and lakes of Russia are considerably lower than the values of reference concentrations of these radionuclides calculated using the environmental criterion.     

基于ECMWF集合预报产品的降水相态客观预报方法

基于欧洲中期天气预报中心（European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF）集合预报系统的降水相态产品（precipitation type,PTYPE）,分别以HSS评分最优、TS评分最优和频率偏差最优为标准,运用最优概率阈值法,生成雨、雨夹雪、雪和冻雨4类降水相态的确定性预报产品,并与ECMWF集合预报系统控制成员及细网格模式确定性预报进行对比。最优概率阈值显示:3种最优标准下,不同相态降水最优概率阈值不同,但冻雨和降雪最优概率阈值均最大,为40%~80%,雨夹雪最优概率阈值最小,约为10%,三者最优概率阈值均随预报时效延长而减小;降雨最优概率阈值为7%~25%,随预报时效延长而增大。对比检验结果显示:最优概率阈值法明显提高了降水相态预报能力,且以HSS评分最优时预报效果最佳;最优概率阈值法有效减小冻雨空报,同时显著改善降雨和降雪预报的频率偏差和TS评分,对雨夹雪预报改进效果有限。     

What are robust strategies in the face of uncertain climate threshold responses?

We use an integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze how alternative decision-making criteria affect preferred investments into greenhouse gas mitigation, the distribution of outcomes, the robustness of the strategies, and the economic value of information. We define robustness as trading a small decrease in a strategy’s expected performance for a significant increase in a strategy’s performance in the worst cases. Specifically, we modify the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE-07) to include a simple representation of a climate threshold response, parametric uncertainty, structural uncertainty, learning, and different decision-making criteria. Economic analyses of climate change strategies typically adopt the expected utility maximization (EUM) framework. We compare EUM with two decision criteria adopted from the finance literature, namely Limited Degree of Confidence (LDC) and Safety First (SF). Both criteria increase the relative weight of the performance under the worst-case scenarios compared to EUM. We show that the LDC and SF criteria provide a computationally feasible foundation for identifying greenhouse gas mitigation strategies that may prove more robust than those identified by the EUM criterion. More robust strategies show higher near-term investments in emissions abatement. Reducing uncertainty has a higher economic value of information for the LDC and SF decision criteria than for EUM.     

A normative ethical framework in climate change

The article spells out four domains of international distributive justice and the consequent criteria of equity, the purpose being to identify a pluralistic normative ethical framework for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Justice and equity should play a major role in favouring collective action against climate change, because the more the various dimensions of such action are just, the more any international climate initiative is feasible in principle. As far as mitigation is concerned, the definition of a just initial allocation of endowments focuses on the criterion of differentiated equality, taking account of undeserved inequalities as suggested by Rawls’ theory of justice as fairness. With regard to the subsequent exchange of endowments, the Pareto principle, supplemented by the envy-freeness one, is a viable option. Possibly a sound reference for the just financing of adaptation activities is the criterion of differentiated historical responsibility, backed by Rawls’ theory of justice as fairness. As regards the allocation of adaptation resources, the criterion of lack of human security, as substantiated in Sen’s capability approach, seems promising.     

单一值预报向概率预报转变的价值:  谈谈概率预报的检验和应用

基于大气系统的非线性和复杂性,加上初值和模式等本身无法避免的一些不确定性,天气预报从单一值的确定论向多值的概率论转变不但符合气象科学的实际也是更好地服务社会之必需。但是这种转变的理性思考对很多用户、甚至气象工作者自己都不是很清楚。为了帮助人们理解和加速这一转变,本文就这种转变所面临的一些普遍困惑谈一些想法。作为促成这一转变的中心技术集合预报——有关的问题已经在本文的姐妹篇中作了讨论。在本文中将主要讨论另外几个问题,即如何衡量一个概率预报的好坏?如何应用概率信息来作决策?以及为什么概率预报比单一值决定论预报更有经济价值?为了易懂,本文用浅显的说理结合举例的方式进行阐述,以便读者特别是广大预报员和用户能在实际中运用。     

Simple general atmospheric circulation and climate models with memory

This article examines some general atmospheric circulation and climate models in the context of the notion of “memory”. Two kinds of memories are defined： statistical memory and deterministic memory. The former is defined through the autocorrelation characteristic of the process if it is random （chaotic）, while for the latter, a special memory function is introduced. Three of the numerous existing models are selected as examples. For each of the models, asymptotic （at t →∞） expressions are derived. In this way, the transients are filtered out and that which remains concerns the final behaviour of the models.     

Intrinsic problems in the seasonal prediction of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Summary The latest non-parametric statistical tool Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) has been shown to extract deterministic oscillations present in a nonlinear dynamical system. It has been hypothesized that the tropical ocean-atmosphere system consists of both deterministic and stochastic parts in the interannual time scales. In the present study SSA has been employed to extract the deterministic and random parts present in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and its predictors time series data sets.The dominant eigenmode pair of the ISM does not emerge as a pure and deterministic oscillation. However, about 34% variance is deterministically predictable in the inter-annual range. The second pair is significantly related to the first pair of Darwin pressure tendency and both emerge as deterministic parts. This relationship partially answers the questions raised by Webster and Yang (1992). The low frequency component of ENSO emerges as a deterministic oscillation in all the variables, except in Bombay pressure tendency. The presence of decadal-scale oscillations may possibly be responsible for the instability in the relationship between the ISM and its predictors. Some plausible explanations for the percent variance explained by the predictors in the existing empirical models have also been discussed. It has been proposed that empirical models can be constructed only with the deterministic parts which may help improve the predictive skill of existing models.With 12 Figures     

利用PRESS准则和岭回归方法建立大气遥感最优反演方程

在文献［１］的基础上，首次引用近代回归分析中ＰＲＥＳＳ准则最优于集法，建立大气温湿遥感最优反演方程，并用岭回归分析评价不同准则或方法所得到的最优子集，同时用实际资料进行了验证。