Spatiotemporal patterns and characteristics of land-use change in China during 2010–2015

Land use/cover change is an important theme on the impacts of human activities on the earth systems and global environmental change. National land-use changes of China during 2010–2015 were acquired by the digital interpretation method using the high-resolution remotely sensed images, e.g. the Landsat 8 OLI, GF-2 remote sensing images. The spatiotemporal characteristics of land-use changes across China during 2010–2015 were revealed by the indexes of dynamic degree model, annual land-use changes ratio etc. The results indicated that the built-up land increased by 24.6×10³ km² while the cropland decreased by 4.9×10³ km², and the total area of woodland and grassland decreased by 16.4×10³ km². The spatial pattern of land-use changes in China during 2010–2015 was concordant with that of the period 2000–2010. Specially, new characteristics of land-use changes emerged in different regions of China in 2010–2015. The built-up land in eastern China expanded continually, and the total area of cropland decreased, both at decreasing rates. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland shrinkage were accelerated in central China. The rates of built-up land expansion and cropland growth increased in western China, while the decreasing rate of woodland and grassland accelerated. In northeastern China, built-up land expansion slowed continually, and cropland area increased slightly accompanied by the conversions between paddy land and dry land. Besides, woodland and grassland area decreased in northeastern China. The characteristics of land-use changes in eastern China were essentially consistent with the spatial govern and control requirements of the optimal development zones and key development zones according to the Major Function-oriented Zones Planning implemented during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015). It was a serious challenge for the central government of China to effectively protect the reasonable layout of land use types dominated with the key ecological function zones and agricultural production zones in central and western China. Furthermore, the local governments should take effective measures to strengthen the management of territorial development in future.     

The basic characteristics and spatial patterns of global cultivated land change since the 1980s

In this paper, we analyzed the spatial patterns of cultivated land change between 1982 and 2011 using global vector-based land use/land cover data. (1) Our analysis showed that the total global cultivated land area increased by 528.768×10⁴ km² with a rate of 7.920×10⁴ km²/a, although this increasing trend was not significant. The global cultivated land increased fastest in the 1980s. Since the 1980s, the cultivated land area in North America, South America and Oceania increased by 170.854×10⁴ km², 107.890×10⁴ km², and 186.492×10⁴ km², respectively. In contrast, that in Asia, Europe and Africa decreased by 23.769×10⁴ km², 4.035×10⁴ km² and 86.76×10⁴ km², respectively. Furthermore, the cultivated land area in North America, South America and Oceania exhibited significant increasing trends of 7.236× 10⁴ km²/a, 2.780×10⁴ km²/a and 3.758×10⁴ km²/a, respectively. On the other hand, that of Asia, Europe and Africa exhibited decreasing trend rates of–5.641×10⁴ km²/a,–0.831×10⁴ km²/a and–0.595×10⁴ km²/a, respectively. Moreover, the decreasing trend in Asia was significant. (2) Since the 1980s, the increase in global cultivated lands was mainly due to converted grasslands and woodlands, which accounted for 53.536% and 26.148% of the total increase, respectively. The increase was found in southern and central Africa, eastern and northern Australia, southeastern South America, central US and Alaska, central Canada, western Russia, northern Finland and northern Mongolia. Among them, Botswana in southern Africa experienced an 80%–90% increase, making it the country with the highest increase worldwide. (3) Since the 1980s, the total area of cultivated lands converted to other types of land was 1071.946×10⁴ km². The reduction was mainly converted to grasslands and woodlands, which accounted for 57.482% and 36.000%, respectively. The reduction occurred mainly in southern Sudan in central Africa, southern and central US, southern Russia, and southern European countries including Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia and Hungary. The greatest reduction occurred in southern Africa with a 60% reduction. (4) The cultivated lands in all the continents analyzed exhibited a trend of expansion to high latitudes. Additionally, most countries displayed an expansion of newly increased cultivated lands and the reduction of the original cultivated lands.     

Cultivated land change in the Belt and Road Initiative region

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)–a development strategy proposed by China – provides unprecedented opportunities for multi-dimensional communication and cooperation across Asia, Africa and Europe. In this study, we analyse the spatio-temporal changes in cultivated land in the BRI countries (64 in total) to better understand the land use status of China along with its periphery for targeting specific collaboration. We apply FAO statistics and GlobeLand30 (the world’s finest land cover data at a 30-m resolution), and develop three indicator groups (namely quantity, conversion, and utilization degree) for the analysis. The results show that cultivated land area in the BRI region increased 3.73×10⁴ km² between 2000 and 2010. The increased cultivated land was mainly found in Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, while the decreased cultivated land was mostly concentrated in China. Russia ranks first with an increase of 1.59×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Hungary (0.66×10⁴ km²) and India (0.57×104 km2). China decreased 1.95×10⁴ km² cultivated land area, followed by Bangladesh (–0.22×10⁴ km²) and Thailand (–0.22×10⁴ km²). Cultivated land was mainly transferred to/from forest, grassland, artificial surfaces and bare land, and transfer types in different regions have different characteristics: while large amount of cultivated land in China was converted to artificial surfaces, considerable forest was converted to cultivated land in Southeast Asia. The increase of multi-cropping index dominated the region except the Central and Eastern Europe, while the increase of fragmentation index was prevailing in the region except for a few South Asian countries. Our results indicate that the negative consequence of cultivated land loss in China might be underestimated by the domestic- focused studies, as none of its close neighbours experienced such obvious cultivated land losses. Nevertheless, the increased cultivated land area in Southeast Asia and the extensive cultivated land use in Ukraine and Russia imply that the regional food production would be greatly improved if China’ “Go Out policy” would help those countries to intensify their cultivated land use.     

生态退耕对中国农田生产力的影响(英文)

The changes in cropland quantity and quality due to land use are critical concerns to national food security, particularly for China. Despite the significant ecological effects, the ecological restoration program (ERP), started from 1999, has evidently altered the spatial patterns of China’s cropland and agricultural productivity. Based on cropland dynamic data from 2000 to 2008 primarily derived from satellite images with a 30-m resolution and satellite-based net primary productivity models, we identified the impacts on agricultural productivity caused by ERP, including "Grain for Green" Program (GFGP) and "Reclaimed Cropland to Lake" (RCTL) Program. Our results indicated that the agricultural productivity lost with a rate of 132.67×104 t/a due to ERP, which accounted for 44.01% of the total loss rate caused by land use changes during 2000-2005. During 2005-2008, the loss rate due to ERP decreased to 77.18×104 t/a, which was equivalent to 58.17% of that in the first five years and 30.22% of the total loss rate caused by land use changes. The agricultural productivity loss from 2000-2008 caused by ERP was more attributed to GFGP (about 70%) than RCTL. Although ERP had a certain influence on cropland productivity during 2000-2008, its effect was still much less than that of urbanization; moreover, ERP was already converted from the project implementation phase to the consolidation phase.     

Spatiotemporal changes in agricultural land cover in Nepal over the last 100 years

In order to advance land use and land cover change (LUCC) research in Nepal, it is essential to reconstruct both the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural land cover as well as scenarios that can explain these changes at the national and regional levels. Because of rapid population growth, the status of agricultural land in Nepal has changed markedly over the last 100 years. Historical data is used in this study, encompassing soils, populations, climatic variables, and topography. Data were revised to a series of 30 m grid cells utilized for agricultural land suitability and allocation models and were analyzed using a suite of advanced geographical tools. Our reconstructions for the spatiotemporal distribution of agricultural land in Nepal reveal an increasing trend between 1910 and 2010 (from 151.2 × 10² km² to 438.8 × 10² km²). This expanded rate of increase in agricultural land has varied between different eco, physiographic, and altitudinal regions of the country, significantly driven by population changes and policies over the period of this investigation. The historical dataset presented in this paper fills an existing gap in studies of agricultural land change and can be applied to other carbon cycle and climate modeling studies, as well as to impact assessments of agricultural land change in Nepal.     

Changes in land use/cover mapped over 80 years in the Highlands of Northern Ethiopia

Despite many studies on land degradation in the Highlands of Northern Ethiopia, quantitative information regarding long-term changes in land use/cover (LUC) is rare. Hence, this study aims to investigate the LUC changes in the Geba catchment (5142 km²), Northern Ethiopia, over 80 years (1935–2014). Aerial photographs (APs) of the 1930s and Google Earth (GE) images (2014) were used. The point-count technique was utilized by overlaying a grid on APs and GE images. The occurrence of cropland, forest, grassland, shrubland, bare land, built-up areas and water body was counted to compute their fractions. A multivariate adaptive regression spline was applied to identify the explanatory factors of LUC and to create fractional maps of LUC. The results indicate significant changes of most types, except for forest and cropland. In the 1930s, shrubland (48%) was dominant, followed by cropland (39%). The fraction of cropland in 2014 (42%) remained approximately the same as in the 1930s, while shrubland significantly dropped to 37%. Forests shrank further from a meagre 6.3% in the 1930s to 2.3% in 2014. High overall accuracies (93% and 83%) and strong Kappa coefficients (89% and 72%) for point counts and fractional maps respectively indicate the validity of the techniques used for LUC mapping.     

Assessment of soil organic carbon in semi-arid Sudan using GIS and the CENTURY model

Using the UNFCCC as a basis, and the objectives of estimating soil organic carbon (SOC) changes during the period 1900–2100, a spatially explicit database of climate, land cover and soil texture was compiled for a 262,000 km² region in semi-arid Sudan. The area is characterized by low input cultivation of millet, sorghum and sesamé combined with livestock grazing. By integrating the database with the CENTURY ecosystem model, we were able to estimate historical, current and future pools of SOC as a function of land management and climate.The SOC (upper 20 cm) decrease from 1900 to 2000 was estimated to be 6·8 Mt and the maximum potential carbon sink (SOC increase) for the period 2000 to 2100 was estimated to be 17 Mt. Cropland and grassland lost 293 and 152 t SOC km⁻² respectively whereas the savannahs gained 76 t SOC km⁻² from 1900 to 2000. The SOC sequestration scenario simulated during 2000–2100 recovered 94, 84 and 75 t km⁻² for cropland, grassland and savannah respectively.In addition to climate and soils, cropping intensity, fallow periods, fire frequency and grazing intensity also influence cropland SOC variation. Grassland and savannah SOC variations depend on grazing intensity and fire return interval. Land management may affect future amounts of SOC in semi-arid areas thereby turning them from sources into sinks of carbon. SOC estimates were reasonably consistent with measurements (r²=0·70, n=13).     

Plio-Quaternary sediment budget between thrust belt erosion and foreland deposition in the central Andes, southern Bolivia

Estimates of the physical boundary conditions on sediment source and sink regions and the flux between them provide insights into the evolution of topography and associated sedimentary basins. We present a regional‐scale, Plio‐Quaternary to recent sediment budget analysis of the Grande, Parapeti and Pilcomayo drainages of the central Andean fold‐thrust belt and related deposits in the Chaco foreland of southern Bolivia (18–23°S). We constrain source‐sink dimensions, fluxes and their errors with topographic maps, satellite imagery, a hydrologically conditioned digital elevation model, reconstructions of the San Juan del Oro (SJDO) erosion surface, foreland sediment isopachs and estimated denudation rates. Modern drainages range from 7453 to 86 798 km² for a total source area of 153 632 km². Palaeo‐drainage areas range from 9336 to 52 620 km² and total 100 706 km², suggesting basin source area growth of ～50% since ～10 Ma. About 2.4–3.1 × 10⁴ km³ were excavated from below the SJDO surface since ～3 Ma. The modern foredeep is 132 080 km² with fluvial megafan areas and volumes ranging from 6142 to 22 511 km² and from 1511 to 3332 km³, respectively. Since Emborozú Formation deposition beginning 2.1 ± 0.2 Ma, the foreland has a fill of ～6.4 × 10⁴ km³. The volume and rate of deposition require that at least ～40–60% of additional sediment be supplied beyond that incised from below the SJDO. The data also place a lower limit of ≥0.2 mm year^?1 (perhaps ≥0.4 mm year^?1) on the time‐ and space‐averaged source area denudation rate since ～2–3 Ma. These rates are within the median range measured for the Neogene, but are up to 2 orders of magnitude higher than some observations, as well as analytic solutions for basin topography and stratigraphy using a two‐dimensional mathematical model of foreland basin evolution. Source‐to‐sink sediment budget analyses and associated interpretations must explicitly and quantitatively reconcile all available area, volume and rate observations because of their inherent imprecision and the potential for magnification when they are convolved.     

Toward sustainable desertification reversion: A case study in Horqin Sandy Land of northern China

Desertification reversion is an interactive process involving climate, land use change, and water processes. In order to reveal the relationship between desertification reversion and these factors, we analyzed historical data on precipitation, air temperature, desertified land changes, underground water tables, and water body changes in Naiman County in the central part of Horqin Sandy Land. Our analysis showed that during 1961-2010 the annual precipitation fluctuated dramatically and has decreased fairly consistently in recent years. The air temperature increased by 0.50-1.25 °C, and the minimum temperature increased more obviously. The desertified land area increased from 42,300 km2 in 1959 to 62,000 km2 in 1985, and then declined to about 50,000 km2 in 2010. The underground water tables have been lowered by about 10 m in the past 30 years, and declined more rapidly in recent years. Desertified land is significantly related to the amount of total cropland, and underground water tables are significantly correlated with annual precipitation and the amount of irrigated cropland. Therefore, it is necessary to pursue sustainable desertification reversion without compromising the capacity for local development and restoration of degraded land, through application of appropriate management measures for improving water availability in this region.     

基于遥感和GIS的中国20世纪90年代毁林开荒状况分析

毁林开荒过程是一种林地变为耕地的土地利用变化过程,可以通过遥感和GIS技术对这一过程进行监测。本文通过覆盖全国的TM影像数据,对20世纪90年代林地转为耕地的面积及其空间分布进行分析,从而对全国毁林开荒过程进行遥感监测。结果表明,该时期有17630km²的林地被开垦为耕地。不同面积等级的开垦过程在不同流域分布也不同:面积小于10hm²和介于10～100hm²的被开垦林地较广泛地分布于各大流域;而面积介于100～1000hm²的被开垦林地主要分布于松辽流域、黑龙江流域和东北东部流域、长江流域、珠江流域和云南省所在流域;大于1000hm²的被开垦林地则几乎全部分布于松辽流域、黑龙江流域和东北东部流域。坡度大于3°的毁林开荒地面积占总面积的295%;对土壤侵蚀背景的分析表明,土壤侵蚀强度以微度和轻度为主     

气候变化下的祁连山地区近40 年多年冻土分布变化模拟

冻土是一种对气候变化极为敏感的土体介质,故气候的变化过程能反映和模拟冻土的分布及变化趋势。基于高程-响应模型,运用高分辨率的高程数据（DEM）、经度数据（Longitude）、纬度数据（Latitude）、年平均气温数据（MAAT）和气温垂直递减率数据（VLRT）对祁连山地区近40 年的多年冻土分布状况进行了数值模拟。分析表明：① 该高程-响应模型模拟的冻土范围和变化趋势与相关研究所引入逻辑回归模型的模拟结果基本一致。② 该模型模拟的1970s、1980s、1990s,2000s 的祁连山地区冻土分布面积分别为9.75×10⁴ km²、9.35×10⁴ km²、8.85×10⁴ km²、7.66×10⁴ km²。在这40 年中,冻土的分布范围呈现出明显减少的趋势。③ 从1970s 到1980s、1980s 到1990s、1990s 到2000s 三个时间段内,冻土分布范围的退缩速率分别为4.1%、5.3%、13.4%,其呈现逐渐增速的趋势,1990s 到2000s 出现了跳跃式增长。本研究可为分析长时间序列祁连山地区的多年冻土变化提供科学参考依据。     

Land cover changes in the Brazilian Cerrado and Caatinga biomes from 1990 to 2010 based on a systematic remote sensing sampling approach

The main objective of our study was to provide consistent information on land cover changes between the years 1990 and 2010 for the Cerrado and Caatinga Brazilian seasonal biomes. These areas have been overlooked in terms of land cover change assessment if compared with efforts in monitoring the Amazon rain forest. For each of the target years (1990, 2000 and 2010) land cover information was obtained through an object-based classification approach for 243 sample units (10  km × 10  km size), using (E)TM Landsat images systematically located at each full degree confluence of latitude and longitude. The images were automatically pre-processed, segmented and labelled according to the following legend: Tree Cover (TC), Tree Cover Mosaic (TCM), Other Wooded Land (OWL), Other Land Cover (OLC) and Water (W). Our results indicate the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes lost (gross loss) respectively 265,595 km² and 89,656 km² of natural vegetation (TC + OWL) between 1990 and 2010. In the same period, these areas also experienced gain of TC and OWL. By 2010, the percentage of natural vegetation cover remaining in the Cerrado was 47% and in the Caatinga 63%. The annual (net) rate of natural vegetation cover loss in the Cerrado slowed down from −0.79% yr⁻¹ to −0.44% yr⁻¹ from the 1990s to the 2000s, while in the Caatinga for the same periods the rate increased from −0.19% yr⁻¹ to −0.44% yr⁻¹. In summary, these Brazilian biomes experienced both loss and gains of Tree Cover and Other Wooded Land; however a continued net loss of natural vegetation was observed for both biomes between 1990 and 2010. The average annual rate of change in this period was higher in the Cerrado (−0.6% yr⁻¹) than in the Caatinga (−0.3% yr⁻¹).     

Conventional and Unconventional Hydrocarbon Resource Potential Evaluation of Source Rocks and Reservoirs: A Case Study of the Upper Xiaganchaigou Formation,Western Qaidam Basin,Northwest China

The Paleogene upper Xiaganchaigou Formation (E₃²) is the most important source rock and reservoir in the Qaidam Basin. However, there are few studies on the processes of hydrocarbon accumulation in this formation; therefore, its hydrocarbon resource potential has not been estimated reasonably. This paper evaluates the hydrocarbon generation properties in light of an improved hydrocarbon generation and expulsion potential model. According to the geochemical characteristics of source rocks and the petrological features of reservoirs, the potentials of different resource types, including conventional oil, tight oil and shale oil, are quantified by combining the buoyancy-driven hydrocarbon accumulation depth (BHAD) and the lower limit for movable resource abundance. The results show that the source rocks are characterized by a large thickness (more than 1000 m), moderate organic matter content, high marginal maturity and a high conversion rate (50% hydrocarbons have been discharged before R_o?=?1%), which provide sufficient oil sources for reservoir formation. Moreover, the reservoirs in the Qaidam Basin consist mainly of low-porosity and low-permeability tight carbonates (porosity of 4.7% and permeability less than 1 mD). The maximum hydrocarbon generation, expulsion, retention and movable retention intensities at present are 350?×?10⁴ t/km², 250?×?10⁴ t/km², 130?×?10⁴ t/km² and 125?×?10⁴ t/km², respectively. The thresholds of hydrocarbon generation, expulsion and BHAD were 0.46% R_o, 0.67% R_o and 0.7% R_o, respectively. Moreover, the dynamic evolution process of hydrocarbon accumulation was divided into three evolution stages, namely, (a) initial hydrocarbon accumulation, (b) conventional hydrocarbon reservoir and shale oil accumulation and (c) unconventional tight oil accumulation. The conventional oil, tight oil and movable shale oil resource potentials were 10.44?×?10⁸ t, 51.9?×?10⁸ t and 390?×?10⁸ t, respectively. This study demonstrates the good resource prospects of E₃² in the Qaidam Basin. A comprehensive workflow for unconventional petroleum resource potential evaluation is provided, and it has certain reference significance for other petroliferous basins, especially those in the early unconventional hydrocarbon exploration stage.

     

The changing patterns of cropland conversion to built-up land in China from 1987 to 2010

Over the past few decades, built-up land in China has increasingly expanded with rapid urbanization, industrialization and rural settlements construction. The expansions encroached upon a large amount of cropland, placing great challenges on national food security. Although the impacts of urban expansion on cropland have been intensively illustrated, few attentions have been paid to differentiating the effects of growing urban areas, rural settlements, and industrial/transportation land. To fill this gap and offer comprehensive implications on framing policies for cropland protection, this study investigates and compares the spatio- temporal patterns of cropland conversion to urban areas, rural settlements, and industrial/ transportation land from 1987 to 2010, based on land use maps interpreted from remote sensing imagery. Five indicators were developed to analyze the impacts of built-up land expansion on cropland in China. We find that 42,822 km² of cropland were converted into built-up land in China, accounting for 43.8% of total cropland loss during 1987–2010. Urban growth showed a greater impact on cropland loss than the expansion of rural settlements and the expansion of industrial/transportation land after 2000. The contribution of rural settlement expansion decreased; however, rural settlement saw the highest percentage of traditional cropland loss which is generally in high quality. The contribution of industrial/transportation land expansion increased dramatically and was mainly distributed in major food production regions. These changes were closely related to the economic restructuring, urban-rural transformation and government policies in China. Future cropland conservation should focus on not only finding a reasonable urbanization mode, but also solving the “hollowing village” problem and balancing the industrial transformations.     

Time series assessment on landslide occurrences in an area undergoing development

This study assesses the influence of development on landslide occurrences in a rapidly developing area, Kota Kinabalu in Sabah Malaysia, across three assessment years (1978, 1994 and 2010). Two development indicators, land use and road density, were used to measure the influence of development on landslide occurrence. Land use was classified into four categories (barren, forest, developed and other), and road density was classified into low (< 50 m/40 000 m²), moderate (50–150 m/40 000 m²) and high (> 150 m/40 000 m²). Landslide density analysis was used to calculate the concentration of landslide for the different land use and road density categories. The number of landslides in developed areas increased from 19 landslides/100 km² in 1978, to 29 landslides/100 km² in 1994 and to 50 landslides/100 km² in 2010, mirroring an increase in land use for development purposes from 8 per cent in 1978 to 27 per cent in 2010. Landslide density also gradually increased in the high road density class from 10 landslides/100 km² in 1978, to 30 landslides/100 km² in 1994 and 62 landslides/100 km² in 2010. These results show that road construction activities influence landslide occurrences.     

中国西北水资源利用及生态环境安全

1 Introduction In the 21st century, water resources will become the international and strategic resource instead of petroleum (Kang et al., 1994a, b). At present, the freshwater resources crisis all over the world has made people aware that although water…     

中美巴印过去300年耕地时空变化的比较研究

本文利用长时间序列数据,对中、美、巴、印四国过去300 年耕地时空变化特征及驱动因素进行了比较分析。结果表明:①四国耕地总量在过去300 年均呈持续增长态势。中国和印度土地垦殖历史悠久,其中,中国在1700-1980s 耕地面积增加了68.21×10⁴ km²,印度在1700-2000 年增加了131.28×10⁴ km²,为中国的1.92 倍;美国和巴西虽然农业起步较晚,但发展迅猛,其中,美国在1700-1950 年的250 年间耕地面积增长了190.87×10⁴ km²,分别是中国、印度增量的2.80 倍和1.46 倍;巴西在1700-2000 年增加了64.57×10⁴ km²,其中近百年的增量为62.82×10⁴ km²,超过了同期其他三国的增加量。②从空间格局变化特征看,近300 年来,中国和印度均是在已有耕地分布格局的基础上向高原及山地丘陵地区扩展;而美国在“西进运动”的影响下,耕地大规模向中西部拓殖;巴西随着向北西部开发的推进,北部、西部地区的耕地急剧增加。③过去300 年推动四国土地垦殖发展最直接的驱动因素是国家政策,但就根本驱动因素而言,中国和印度是人口,而美国和巴西则是国家财政;在农技发展取向方面,中国和印度选择了精耕细作以提高土地生产率;而美国和巴西则选择了机械化以提高劳动生产率。     

生态服务价值与方法研究

1Ecosystemservicesandtheirvalueoftheworld1.1EcosystemservicesHuman societies derive many essential goods from natural ecosystems, including seafood, game animals, fodder, fuelwood, timber, and pharmaceutical products (Constanza, 1997). These goods represent important and familiar parts of the economy. What has been less appreciated until recently is that natural ecosystems also perform fundamental life-support services without which human civilizations would cease to thrive. These include the…     

Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains in the past half-century: Based on the revised First and Second Chinese Glacier Inventory

Glaciers are the most important fresh-water resources in arid and semi-arid regions of western China. According to the Second Chinese Glacier Inventory (SCGI), primarily compiled from Landsat TM/ETM+ images, the Qilian Mountains had 2684 glaciers covering an area of 1597.81±70.30 km2 and an ice volume of ~84.48 km³ from 2005 to 2010. While most glaciers are small (85.66% are <1.0 km²), some larger ones (12.74% in the range 1.0–5.0 km²) cover 42.44% of the total glacier area. The Laohugou Glacier No.12 (20.42 km²) located on the north slope of the Daxue Range is the only glacier >20 km² in the Qilian Mountains. Median glacier elevation was 4972.7 m and gradually increased from east to west. Glaciers in the Qilian Mountains are distributed in Gansu and Qinghai provinces, which have 1492 glaciers (760.96 km²) and 1192 glaciers (836.85 km²), respectively. The Shule River basin contains the most glaciers in both area and volume. However, the Heihe River, the second largest inland river in China, has the minimum average glacier area. A comparison of glaciers from the SCGI and revised glacier inventory based on topographic maps and aerial photos taken from 1956 to 1983 indicate that all glaciers have receded, which is consistent with other mountain and plateau areas in western China. In the past half-century, the area and volume of glaciers decreased by 420.81 km² (–20.88%) and 21.63 km³ (–20.26%), respectively. Glaciers with areas <1.0 km² decreased the most in number and area recession. Due to glacier shrinkage, glaciers below 4000 m completely disappeared. Glacier changes in the Qilian Mountains presented a clear longitudinal zonality, i.e., the glaciers rapidly shrank in the east but slowly in the central-west. The primary cause of glacier recession was warming temperatures, which was slightly mitigated with increased precipitation.     

宁夏回族自治区持续性旱灾的气候背景

基于宁夏地区1978—2010年旱灾灾情要素年资料和23个气象站1971—2011年月平均气温和月降水量资料,运用Mann-Kendall趋势分析和突变检验方法,详细分析了该地区近33年旱灾灾情及近41年气候的时空变化特征,在此基础上,剖析了持续性旱灾产生的气候背景。结果表明：1978—2010年宁夏地区旱灾呈持续性加重趋势,受灾人口、农作物受灾面积和直接经济损失增速分别为28.78万人/10a、3.16万hm²/10a和8 504.04万元/10a。空间变化上,旱灾加重速度由中部向北、向南呈减慢趋势。1971—2011年宁夏地区气候总体呈暖干化趋势,年平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温的升温率分别为0.42 ℃/10a、0.37 ℃/10a和0.50 ℃/10a,增暖表现为全年温度升高,年平均气温和平均最高气温于20世纪90年代早期发生了显著增暖突变;降水量呈减少趋势,但不显著。宁夏持续性旱灾是气温持续快速上升和降水量减少共同作用的结果,其中气温显著增高是该地区干旱灾害加剧的主要气候因素。