青藏高原地区多套位势高度和风场再分析资料的对比分析

针对20CR、CFSR、NCEP1、NCEP2、ERA-Interim、ERA-20CM和JRA-55再分析位势高度和风场资料,基于探空资料,采用计算均方根误差、相关分析等方法从气候均值、长期变化趋势和年际变率三个方面评估再分析资料在青藏高原地区的适用性.结果表明:再分析资料的适用性存在季节、空间和垂直层次上的差异.气候均值方面,NCEP1和ERA-Interim位势高度资料与观测资料最接近,适用性最佳,而ERA-20CM资料偏差最大.春夏季,NCEP2和NCEP1的风速资料质量较优,20CR和ERA-20CM资料质量相对较差;而秋冬季,ERA-20CM风速资料与探空资料最接近,质量最好.气候变化趋势方面,JRA-55、ERA-Interim和NCEP1资料质量存在时空的差异,但均能很好地反映出位势高度的变化趋势.年际变率方面,除了ERA-20CM,各再分析资料与探空资料相关性高,对年际变率的刻画基本一致,其中JRA-55和ERA-Interim位势高度资料与探空资料相关性最好.就季节而言,冬季再分析资料质量最高,适用性好,其次为春季,夏季资料质量最低.     

4种再分析气温资料在羌塘国家级自然保护区的适用性研究

利用1979 - 2018年羌塘国家级自然保护区边缘的3个气象站点狮泉河（西部）、 申扎（中部）和安多（东部）的观测气温（OT）, 与ERA-Interim（ET）、 NCEP/NCAR（NT1）、 NCEP/DOE（NT2）和JRA-55（JT）4种再分析气温资料, 从年际变化和年变化两方面采用多年气温变化趋势、 均方差、 相关性等参数方法在羌塘自然保护区进行了适用性研究。结果表明： 从多年平均气温年际变化来看, 4种再分析资料在狮泉河（西部）的适用性较差, JRA-55资料在安多（东部）和申扎（中部）的适用性较好, 且冬季再分析气温资料与观测气温的相关性好于夏季; 从多年平均气温年变化来看, 均表现为冬季（1月或12月）最低, 夏季（7月或8月）最高的“单峰型”变化。综合来看, JRA-55资料在羌塘自然保护区的适用性较好, ERA-Interim对多年气温趋势变化表现不准确, NCEP/NCAR和NCEP/DOE与观测气温相比显著偏低。     

多种再分析地表温度资料在中国区域的适用性分析

利用1979-2010年中国805个站点的逐日地表温度观测资料与ERA-Interim、ERA-Interim/Land、JRA-55、NCEP/NCAR和NCEP/DOE五种再分析地表温度资料, 对五种再分析地表温度资料在中国区域的适用性进行了比较与分析. 结果表明: 从空间分布特征来看, JRA-55资料与观测资料最为接近; 五种再分析地表温度资料在东部地区的适用性好于西部地区, 且均不能很好地模拟出青藏高原地区和西北西部地区的地表温度分布. 从地表温度的长期变化来看, 五种再分析地表温度资料虽然可以描述地表温度变化趋势, 但均存在低估现象, 且低估现象随着地表温度的增加变得更加严重. 在地表温度人工观测和自动观测交接的时间段, 可以使用再分析资料作为地表温度均一化的参考序列.     

五种降水产品在疏勒河上游山区和中下游月尺度降水的适用性对比研究

降水产品为理解降水时空分布提供了新的视角,然而其在不同地区适用性差异很大,目前对不同降水产品在西北内陆河流域上游山区和中下游平原适用性的对比研究还十分有限。利用疏勒河流域及周边9个国家气象站2001-2013年和4个山区自建气象站2008-2013年降水观测数据,基于皮尔逊相关系数（R）、均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对误差（MAE）和相对偏差（BIAS）指标,对CMFD、ERA-Interim、GPCC、GPCP V2.3和JRA-55共五种常用降水产品的月尺度降水数据在疏勒河上游山区和中下游平原区的适用性进行了评估对比,结果表明：五种降水产品都可以较好地模拟疏勒河流域多年平均降水的空间分布,总体来说,降水产品在上游的评估的相对误差优于中下游,但绝对误差比中下游大,这与上游降水远大于中下游有关。各产品在上游和中下游的精度排序结果一致,均为CMFD > GPCC > ERA-Interim > GPCP V2.3 > JRA-55。CMFD效果最佳可能与融合了中国更多的地面降水资料有关,其在自建站的效果也表现最佳。不同产品在疏勒河上游山区和中下游月尺度的降水评估中表现较好,但尚不能满足流域水文过程分析和模拟的需要。     

中国大陆降水时空变异规律——Ⅲ. 趋势变化原因

中国大陆现代降水表现出若干长期变化特征,对现代降水趋势性变化的原因,目前还没有很好了解。结合多种资料分析以及前人研究成果,对中国大陆近几十年降水变化趋势的原因进行了探讨,得到以下初步认识:① 现代降水量变化趋势具有明显的地域性差异,全国平均没有表现出显著增加或减少的长期变化,但强降水事件频率和降水量出现明显增多,而小雨事件特别是痕量降水事件显著减少。② 再分析资料表明,最近几十年全国水汽净收支量在一定程度上增加了,实际观测资料显示近地面和对流层中下层空气比湿或大气可降水量出现较明显上升趋势。③ 代用资料序列分析显示,全国大部地区近几十年降水变化仍处于晚近历史时期正常自然波动范围内;近百年观测的降水量序列也表明,黄淮海地区降水具有多重时间尺度相互叠加作用特点,低频自然气候变异的影响信号有清晰表现。④ 人类活动引起的大气中温室气体浓度增加对全国或东部季风区现代降水变化影响的信号,目前仍难以识别;区域性近地面风速减弱导致的雨量观测系统偏差以及大范围气溶胶浓度增加,可能是东部季风区大多数台站观测到的强降水事件频率增加和小雨频率显著减少的两个重要原因。⑤ 主要与城市化影响相关的地面观测资料系统偏差,可以部分解释现有分析表明的短历时强降水事件频率和累计降水量增加现象,同时也很可能是城市台站小雨和痕量降水事件频率明显下降的另一重要原因。     

Dominant impact of South Asian low heat on summer monsoon rainfall over Central India

Although previous literature have considered Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Dipole, and SST as the major teleconnection patterns to explain the variability of summer monsoon rainfall over India. South Asia low pressure and Indian Ocean high are the centers of action that dominates atmospheric circulations in Indian continent. This paper examines the possible impact of South Asian low pressure distribution on the variability of summer monsoon rainfall of India using centers of action approach. Our analysis demonstrates that the explanation of summer monsoon rainfall variability over Central India is improved significantly if the SOI is replaced by South Asian low heat. This contribution also explains the physical mechanisms to establish the relationships between the South Asian low heat and regional climate by examining composite maps of large-scale circulation fields using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data.     

新德里季风降水中过量氘与季风水汽来源

收集和分析了新德里降水中同位素资料(δ¹⁸O和δD),利用季风水线方程对个别年份缺测的δD资料进行估计,建立了新德里36 a夏季过量氘序列.基于降水中过量氘和水汽源区相对湿度关系考虑,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了新德里夏季过量氘序列和水汽源区相对湿度的关系.研究发现,西阿拉伯海相对湿度变化和新德里季风降水中过量氘变化较为一致.结合西阿拉伯海风速和印度西北地区季风降水量资料分析结果,认为西阿拉伯海是新德里季风水汽的主要来源.     

ERA-Interim和CMFD气象驱动数据在新疆额尔齐斯河流域的适用性评价

气象驱动数据质量是影响流域水文过程模拟精度的一个重要因素。基于新疆额尔齐斯河流域及周边区域8个气象站记录的数据,对ERA-Interim再分析资料和中国区域地面气象要素驱动数据集（CMFD）在流域的适用性进行了评价,并对比了ERA-Interim和CMFD气象要素年均值在流域的空间分布。结果表明：ERA-Interim和CMFD记录气温、相对湿度、向下短波辐射和向下长波辐射数据与观测数据具有较高的一致性,但降水和风速数据与观测数据的一致性比较差。小时尺度上ERA-Interim记录的气温、相对湿度、降水量、向下短波辐射准确度略高于CMFD数据,而日尺度上CMFD记录的所有气象要素的准确度均高于ERA-Interim数据,结合Noah-MP模型的模拟结果,认为CMFD数据在新疆额尔齐斯河流域的适用性整体优于ERA-Interim数据。从两种驱动数据获取的流域气象要素空间分布来看,ERA-Interim和CMFD获取的年平均气温、风速、相对湿度、降水量、向下长波辐射在流域空间具有高度一致性,但向下短波辐射空间分布差别较大。     

Impact of variational assimilation technique on simulation of a heavy rainfall event over Pune,India

Prediction of heavy rainfall events due to severe convective storms in terms of their spatial and temporal scales is a challenging task for an operational forecaster. The present study is about a record-breaking heavy rainfall event observed in Pune (18°31′N, 73°55′E) on October 4, 2010. The day witnessed highest 24-h accumulated precipitation of 181.3 mm and caused flash floods in the city. The WRF model-based real-time weather system, operating daily at Centre for Development of Advanced Computing using PARAM Yuva supercomputer showed the signature of this convective event 4-h before, but failed to capture the actual peak rainfall and its location with reference to the city’s observational network. To investigate further, five numerical experiments were conducted to check the impact of assimilation of observations in the WRF model forecast. First, a control experiment was conducted with initialization using National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)’s Global Forecast System 0.5° data, while surface observational data from NCEP Prepbufr system were assimilated in the second experiment (VARSFC). In the third experiment (VARAMV), NCEP Prepbufr atmospheric motion vectors were assimilated. Fourth experiment (VARPRO) was assimilated with conventional soundings data, and all the available NCEP Prepbufr observations were assimilated in the fifth experiment (VARALL). Model runs were compared with observations from automated weather stations (AWS), synoptic charts of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). Comparison of 24-h accumulated rainfall with IMD AWS 24-h gridded data showed that the fifth experiment (VARALL) produced better picture of heavy rainfall, maximum up to 251 mm/day toward the southern side, 31 km away from Pune’s IMD observatory. It was noticed that the effect of soundings observations experiment (VARPRO) caused heavy precipitation of 210 mm toward the southern side 49 km away from Pune. The wind analysis at 850 and 200 hPa indicated that the surface and atmospheric motion vector observations (VARAMV) helped in shifting its peak rainfall toward Pune, IMD observatory by 18 km, though VARALL over-predicted rainfall by 60 mm than the observed.     

青藏高原南部冰芯记录与大气环流的关系*

通过念青唐古拉峰拉弄冰川垭口处(30°24'30″N, 90°34'12″E;海拔5850m)长度为29.5m的冰芯记录,恢复了1952~1998年间大气降水δD和净积累量的时间变化序列。上述两组序列与NCEP/NCAR气候资料的相关分析表明:δD和净积累量与中亚冬季的气压、南亚和青藏高原冬季、夏季的位势高度关系密切。中亚地区冬季气压的升高以及冬、夏季南亚和青藏高原位势高度的异常增强了印度夏季风,导致了念青唐古拉峰地区20世纪80年代以来降水量的增多和降水中δD值的降低。根据念青唐古拉冰芯δD和净积累量记录及其与亚洲地区大气环流的关系,可以通过青藏高原南部较长的冰芯记录来恢复过去该地区大气环流变化的历史。     

Objective Analysis on Large-scale Circulation Type and Its Links to Precipitation over China

Atmospheric circulation anomaly is a direct cause of weather and climate change. In the past, most researches for the relationship between Weather Type (WT) and precipitation have mainly focused on the subjective classification and diagnosis. Compared to the subjective analysis, objective classification uses more consistent index and standard unification, thus, we can get more WTs, and it has been widely used in many areas. By using daily 12UTC Sea Level Pressure (SLP), Precipitable Water (PW), and 700 hPa wind speed (UV700) data from ECMWF’s Interim Reanalysis, the classification of WTs over China was performed with the method of obliquely rotated T-mode principle component analysis. WT and its link to precipitation over China were further analyzed. The results show that the influence of different WTs on precipitation is not uniform over China, and also show distinctly difference in different seasons. A common feature is that WTs great impact on the regions and months with large precipitation, while less impact on regions and months have with less precipitation. In addition, precipitation trends originating from WT intensity changes are much more deterministic, significant, and predictable than trends from WT frequency changes.     

Study of seasonal climatology and interannual variability over India and its subregions using a regional climate model (RegCM3)

The temporal and spatial variability of the various meteorological parameters over India and its different subregions is high. The Indian subcontinent is surrounded by the complex Himalayan topography in north and the vast oceans in the east, west and south. Such distributions have dominant influence over its climate and thus make the study more complex and challenging. In the present study, the climatology and interannual variability of basic meteorological fields over India and its six homogeneous monsoon subregions (as defined by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) for all the four meteorological seasons) are analysed using the Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3). A 22-year (1980–2001) simulation with RegCM3 is carried out to develop such understanding. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research, US (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) is used as the initial and lateral boundary conditions. The main seasonal features and their variability are represented in model simulation. The temporal variation of precipitation, i.e., the mean annual cycle, is captured over complete India and its homogenous monsoon subregions. The model captured the contribution of seasonal precipitation to the total annual precipitation over India. The model showed variation in the precipitation contribution for some subregions to the total and seasonal precipitation over India. The correlation coefficient (CC) and difference between the coefficient of variation between model fields and the corresponding observations in percentage (COV) is calculated and compared. In most of the cases, the model could represent the magnitude but not the variability. The model processes are found to be more important than in the corresponding observations defining the variability. The model performs quite well over India in capturing the climatology and the meteorological process. The model shows good skills over the relevant subregions during a season.     

Influence of Icelandic Low pressure on winter precipitation variability over northern part of Indo-Pak Region

Several studies demonstrate that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has dominant influence on the variability of climate over Southwest Asia. We deconstruct the NAO into its two components, the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. Regional circulations are influenced by changes not only in the pressure but also the positions of the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. The results presented in this paper exhibit that significantly great portions of interannual variance of winter precipitation over Indo-Pak Region (consists of Northeast Pakistan and Northwest India) can be explained by including the contributions of the Icelandic Low pressure in addition to ENSO and AO. This contribution also explains the physical mechanisms to establish the relationships between the COA and regional climate by examining composite maps of large-scale circulation fields using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.     

喜马拉雅山中部过去约300年季风降水变化

重建了1700年以来喜马拉雅山中部达索普冰芯积累量,该积累量直接反映了喜马拉雅山中部季风降水。研究了该积累量的变化规律,并分析了其与尼泊尔和印度东北部夏季风降水之间的关系,最后讨论了陆海热力差异与该积累量之间的关系。     

Long-term changes in the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon over western India

This paper presents results of a study of long term trends in the characteristics of the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon rainfall over western India during the last five decades in relation to global warming induced regional climate change. In contrast to recent climate change analyses and projections, no significant long-term trends have been observed in this study. Slow decadal scale variations observed are analysed in relation to Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Daily variations in rainfall anomaly show opposite characteristics during negative and positive phases of PDO. The above-normal rainfall (>25%) is found during the starting phase of monsoon in negative PDO. Over the last decade, i.e., during 2000–2007, the seasonal rainfall amount, as well as seasonal span of southwest monsoon over western India is indicative of a gradual increase.     

ERA-Interim地表温度数据集在青藏高原冻土分布制图应用的适用性评估

地表温度综合反映了大气、植被和土壤等因素的能量交换状况, 是冻土分布模型和一些寒区陆面过程模式的上边界条件, 对多年冻土分布制图和活动层厚度估算有重要意义. 为了评估ERA-Interim 地表温度产品在青藏高原地区的适用性, 综合比较了青藏高原69个海拔2 000 m以上气象站1981-2013年地面实际观测值与ERA-Interim之间的差异及其分布状况. 结果表明, 两种资料的变化趋势一致, 但是ERA-Interim地表温度在数值上与实际观测值差别显著, 平均偏低7.4℃. 原因之一可能是由ERA-Interim再分析资料格点的海拔高度与气象站实际海拔高度差异引起的. 根据两种温度产品之间海拔的差异, 对ERA-Interim地表温度重新进行模拟, 经过模拟后的ERA-Interim地表温度与实际观测值的差值在大部分气象站变小, 平均偏高0.4℃. 因此, 经过重新模拟的ERA-Interim地表温度基本能够反映青藏高原地表温度的真实情况. 以模拟后的ERA-Interim地表温度作为地面冻结数模型的输入参数模拟了青藏高原冻土分布, 结果表明青藏高原多年冻土区面积为1.14×10⁶ km², 季节冻土区面积为1.43×10⁶km².     

春末夏初土壤状态对后期区域降水模拟的影响

欧洲中期天气预报中心40 a的再分析资料（ERA40）对中国范围土壤湿度的表现好于美国国家环境预测中心/国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析资料,尤其是在春末夏初阶段,对因融雪和土壤融冻产生的土壤湿度变化有着更好的表现.针对这一特点,分别用这两套再分析资料土壤温、湿度分布作为初始场驱动大气模式MM5,以1998...     

青藏高原近地层及北侧气压系统的季节性振荡变化

基于ERA-Interim逐日4次600 hPa位势高度再分析资料, 以及青藏高原和周边地区75个气象站日平均温度、降水和相对湿度资料, 对高原近地层及北侧气压系统的季节性振荡变化进行了分析. 结果表明: 高原近地层及北侧气压系统强度在围绕中心点顺时针运动时不断加强, 逆时针运动时不断减弱. 两气压系统呈明显的跷跷板式变化, 在600 hPa上表现为高度场空间结构沿经向上的调整; 低高压差负值的开始和结束时间与高原季风起讫时间吻合. 高原夏季降水的起讫不仅与高原及北侧气压系统结构密切相关, 而且与高原东南或南部水汽输送条件息息相关.     

A review of observed and projected changes in climate for the islands in the Caribbean

Observed and projected changes in climate have serious socio-economic implications for the Caribbean islands. This article attempts to present basic climate change information—based on previous studies, available observations and climate model simulations—at spatial scales relevant for islands in the Caribbean. We use the General Circulation Model (GCM) data included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model (RCM) data to provide both present-day and scenario-based future information on precipitation and temperature for individual island states. Gridded station observations and satellite data are used to study 20th century climate and to assess the performance of climate models. With main focus on precipitation, we also discuss factors such as sea surface temperature, sea level pressure and winds that affect seasonal variations in precipitation. The CMIP3 ensemble mean and the RCM successfully capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation features in the region, but show difficulty in capturing the characteristic bimodal seasonal cycle of precipitation. Future drying during the wet season in this region under climate change scenarios has been noted in previous studies, but the magnitude of change is highly uncertain in both GCM and RCM simulations. The projected decrease is more prominent in the early wet season erasing the mid-summer drought feature in the western Caribbean. The RCM simulations show improvements over the GCM mainly due to better representation of landmass, but its performance is critically dependent on the driving GCM. This study highlights the need for high-resolution observations and ensemble of climate model simulations to fully understand climate change and its impacts on small islands in the Caribbean.     

基于SDSM的珠江中上游气候模拟及未来情景预估

预估喀斯特生态脆弱区的未来气候变化对于区域资源的合理开发利用及生态环境保护具有重要参考价值,而目前应用降尺度方法模拟喀斯特地区的未来气候情景仍存在较大的探讨空间。本文依据珠江流域红柳江区13个气象站1961-2001年的实测日气温、日降水量资料和全球大气NCEP再分析资料,采用SDSM模型预测流域在HadCM3模式SRES A2和B2两种排放情景下未来年份气温和降水的变化趋势。结果表明:（1）SDSM模型可以较为准确地模拟研究区的气温和降水变化,确定性系数分别可达99%和65%左右;（2）A2、B2两种情景下,21世纪气温和降水均表现出明显的上升趋势,且随时间推移增幅逐渐增大。截至21世纪末,A2、B2两种情景下的年平均气温变化分别为+3.39 ℃和+2.49 ℃,日均降水将分别增加117.30 %和80.90 %;（3）未来的气温上升以秋季和春季变化最为明显,降水则表现为夏季降水增幅最大。分析成果可为喀斯特区的气候变化影响评价与应对决策提供数据基础和理论依据。