基于SDSM的珠江中上游气候模拟及未来情景预估

预估喀斯特生态脆弱区的未来气候变化对于区域资源的合理开发利用及生态环境保护具有重要参考价值，而目前应用降尺度方法模拟喀斯特地区的未来气候情景仍存在较大的探讨空间。本文依据珠江流域红柳江区13个气象站1961-2001年的实测日气温、日降水量资料和全球大气NCEP再分析资料，采用SDSM模型预测流域在HadCM3模式SRES A2和B2两种排放情景下未来年份气温和降水的变化趋势。结果表明:（1）SDSM模型可以较为准确地模拟研究区的气温和降水变化，确定性系数分别可达99%和65%左右；（2）A2、B2两种情景下，21世纪气温和降水均表现出明显的上升趋势，且随时间推移增幅逐渐增大。截至21世纪末，A2、B2两种情景下的年平均气温变化分别为+3.39 ℃和+2.49 ℃，日均降水将分别增加117.30 %和80.90 %；（3）未来的气温上升以秋季和春季变化最为明显，降水则表现为夏季降水增幅最大。分析成果可为喀斯特区的气候变化影响评价与应对决策提供数据基础和理论依据。 

Simulation of future scenarios of climate change in the middle and upper reaches of the Peal River using the Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM)

Due to the vulnerability and sensitivity of the karst eco-system, the prediction of future climate change in the karst area has great significance to reasonably exploit the regional resources and effectively protect the ecological environment. However, the research on the climate downscaling in the karst area is nearly blank. In this paper, the daily mean temperature and daily precipitation from 13 meteorological stations in the Hongliujiang zone of the Pearl River Basin during 1961-2001 were used as the predictors. Moreover, the NCEP reanalysis data was used as the forecast factor. The SDSM model was applied to predict the trends of temperature and precipitation in future years under SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios of the HadCM3 model. The results show that,(1) SDSM mode can be applied in the accurate simulation of the temperature and precipitation in the study area, and the deterministic coefficient of observation and simulation value is about 99% and 65% respectively; (2) Compared with the reference period, the future temperature and precipitation in the A2 and B2 scenarios show a clear upward trend until the end of the 21th century, and the increment is increasing with time prolonged. Meanwhile,by the end of 21th century,the relative variation of the future mean annual temperature in the A2 and B2 scenarios are +3.39 ℃ and +2.49 ℃ respectively, and the 117.30 % and 80.90 % growth respectively in daily precipitation under the A2 and B2 scenarios; (3) The rise of temperature is the most obvious in autumn and spring, and the precipitation increase is the largest in summer. Therefore, this analysis not only provides the foundation data and the theoretical basis for setting strategies, but also has great significance for impact study of climate changes in karst areas.