长江中下游地区雨涝指数构建及其应用

为客观识别区域暴雨洪涝过程、定量评估区域暴雨过程强度,基于极端事件中持续时间和强度关系理论,采用近5 d最大降水强度作为降水相当强度指标,构建雨涝指数和区域雨涝过程强度的算法,利用1961-2019年长江中下游地区逐日降水资料,分析长江中下游地区的区域雨涝过程次数、强度以及雨涝趋势变化特征。结果表明:① 1961-2019年长江中下游地区区域雨涝过程次数整体呈增加趋势,21世纪以来区域雨涝过程发生次数明显增多,持续5~9 d的区域雨涝过程占全部雨涝过程的2/3以上;②区域内雨涝日数总体呈现南多北少分布,雨涝日数变化趋势表现为西北部减少、东南部增多;③年降水量和雨涝趋势的时空变化使得长江中下游地区的旱涝差异进一步增大,降水多的东南部更涝,降水少的北部和西部愈加干旱。     

Spatial variability of rainfall trends in Iran

The main objective of this paper is to analyze the spatial variability of rainfall trends using the spatial variability methods of rainfall trend patterns in Iran. The study represents a method on the effectiveness of spatial variability for predicting rainfall trend patterns variations. In rainfall trend analysis and spatial variability methods, seven techniques were used: Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope method, geostatistical tools as a global polynomial interpolation and the spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I), high/low clustering (Getis-Ord General G), precipitation concentration index, generate spatial weights matrix tool, and activation functions of semiliner, sigmoid, bipolar sigmoid, and hyperbolic tangent in the artificial neural network technique .For the spatial variability of monthly rainfall trends, trend tests were used in 140 stations of spatial variability of rainfall trends in the 1975–2014 period. We analyzed the long and short scale spatial variability of rainfall series in Iran. Spatial variability distribution of rainfall series was depicted using geostatistical methods (ordinary kriging). Relative nugget effect (RNE) predicted from variograms which showed weak, moderate, and strong spatial variability for seasonal and annual rainfall series. Moreover, the rainfall trends at each station were examined using the trend tests at a significance level of 0.05. The results show that temporal and spatial trend patterns are different in Iran and the monthly rainfall had a downward (decreasing) trend in most stations, and the trend was statistically significant for most of the series (73.5% of the stations demonstrated a decreasing trend with 0.5 significance level). Rainfall downward trends are generally temporal-spatial patterns in Iran. The monthly variations of rainfall decreased significantly throughout eastern and central Iran, but they increased in the west and north of Iran during the studied interval. The variability patterns of monthly rainfall were statistically significant and spatially random. Activation functions in the artificial neural network models, in annual time scale, had spatially dispersed distribution with other clustering patterns. The results of this study confirm that variability of rainfall revealing diverse patterns over Iran should be controlled mainly by trend patterns in the west and north parts and by random and dispersed patterns in the central, southern, and eastern parts.     

1971-2012年珠穆朗玛峰地区极端降水事件变化研究

利用西藏珠穆朗玛峰地区5个气象站点1971-2012年逐日降水量资料,采用滑动平均、线性回归、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了珠穆朗玛峰地区极端降水事件的时空变化特征. 结果表明：1971-2012年42 a来,珠穆朗玛峰地区大部分极端降水指数呈现出自东向西逐渐增大的空间分布格局, 连续干旱日数、连续湿日和降水强度表现为增加趋势,其他极端降水指数趋于减少. 其中,强降水量、极强降水量和年降水总量减幅较大,分别为-5.74 mm·（10a）^-1、-1.20 mm·（10a）^-1和-5.32 mm·（10a）^-1,在喜马拉雅山南坡的聂拉木站表现的最为明显. 大部分极端降水指数在21世纪最初的10 a减幅最大,在30 a际尺度上也表现为减少趋势. 除连续干旱日数外,极端降水与年降水总量关系密切. 各项极端降水指数都存在3～4 a显著周期,也存在10 a、12 a和15 a的周期. 在时间转折上,各项极端降水指数均未发生气候突变.     

1961-2016年四川地区不同量级不同持续时间降水的 时空特征分析

利用四川地区122站逐日降水数据,采用均值、气候趋势系数等统计方法,对1961-2016年不同量级不同持续时间降水的空间和时间变化特征进行了分析,结果表明：盆地和攀西地区小雨、中雨、大雨和总暴雨所占年降水量比例接近,高原地区小雨降水量约占50%以上,中雨约40%,大雨约10%;整个四川地区小雨日数占总降水日数75%以上,量级越高降水日数越少。年降水量在盆地和攀西地区为减少趋势,高原则相反,年降水日数除了在高原局部微弱增加外其他地区皆减少且大部分区域减少趋势通过99%的显著性水平检验,这种趋势显著性主要体现在小雨量级降水。随着降水量级的增加,高原、盆地东北、攀西和盆地东南的部分地区出现了降水量和降水次数增加趋势,这可能说明高原地区年降水量的增加由小雨量级降水效率以及中雨和大雨降水次数增加导致,盆地和攀西部分地区年降水量的增加主要由降水量级大的降水次数增加导致。     

中国极端降水事件的频数和强度特征

使用1951-2004年中国738个测站逐日降水资料,采用百分位的方法定义极端降水事件的阈值,分析了不同持续时间的极端降水事件的时空分布及变化趋势特征。结果表明,极端降水事件多发于35°N以南,特别是在长江中下游和江南地区以及高原东南部,且在这些地区极端降水事件持续时间也较长。季节分布上,主要出现在夏季,以低持续性事件为主。在中国东部地区,持续时间越长的极端降水其强度往往越强。趋势分析表明,全国持续1d极端事件的相对频数具有上升趋势而平均强度具有下降趋势,其空间上均表现为全国大部分上升、华北和西南等地下降的趋势。持续2d以上极端事件在长江中下游流域、江南地区和高原东部等地区有显著增多和增强的趋势,而在华北和西南地区有减少和减弱趋势,但全国平均的趋势不显著。     

Study on the Climatic Change Features of Hebei Plain

Precipitation and groundwater are essential to water circulation and they mutually influence. Groundwater is the main water supply source in Hebei Plain. On the other hand, atmospheric precipitation infiltration recharge is the main supply source of the groundwater in this area. Therefore, the studies on Hebei Plain climatic change features are of great significance to further analyze the influences of climatic changes on groundwater resources. This paper selected 10 ground climatological stations in Hebei Plain in terms of daily precipitation and temperature data from 1961 to 2010 and analyzed the spatial-temporal evolution features of temperature and precipitation. The results showed that the minimum temperature of Hebei Plain in recent 50 years increased significantly; the maximum temperature basically is stable; and the mean temperature presents an obviously increasing trend. In the spatial distribution, it gradually decreases from southwest to northeast on the whole and gradually tends to increase from the coastal to inland. The precipitation in recent 50 years owns obvious interannual change features and spatial distribution features, with a trend of overall periodic decrease and significant decrease of extreme precipitation. The annual mean precipitation intensity and annual mean extreme precipitation intensity gradually increased from piedmont plain to coastal plain. Hebei Plain has a warming and drying development trend on the whole. In space, piedmont plain belongs to the high-temperature and few-water area; coastal plain lies in low-temperature and much-water area; and central plain is in transitional zone. The climatic change and human activities are two influential factors of groundwater resources. Further revealing of the climatic change features of different geomorphic types and measuring and distinguishing of the influences of climatic change and human activities on groundwater remain to be further explored.     

高寒内流区极端降水的气候变化特征分析

利用中国气象局1969—2017年高寒内流区25个气象站的日降水资料,分析极端降水的变化特征,结果表明：1969—2017年高寒内流区降水量呈上升趋势,这种上升很大程度上可能是由于夏季降水量增加导致的,且20世纪90年代以后降水量增加趋势更加明显。极端降水指数除连续干旱日数外,均呈不同程度的增加趋势,其年际变化反映出在进入21世纪后高寒内流区降水向强降水量和日数更多、强度更强、极值更大的方向发展。极端降水指数空间差异性明显,连续湿润日数、雨日降水总量、雨日降水强度、单日最大降水量、五日最大降水量、极端降水量和日降水大于10 mm日数表现显著增加趋势的台站百分率分别为5%、64%、42%、60%、32%、35%和43%,连续干旱日数表现显著下降趋势的台站百分率为5%。极端降水事件具有一致性,总降水量增加,极端降水的频率、强度、极值也增加,小雨日数增加是降水总量增加的因素之一。极端降水增湿幅度有随海拔升高有增大趋势,高海拔区雨日降水量和雨日天数的增加是极端降水总量增加的主要因素。     

Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China

With the increasing exposure of populations and economy to natural hazards, the spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall remain a key subject of study. Based on annual maximum rainfall (AM) and peaks over threshold rainfall series at 30 meteorological stations during 1960–2011 in the Huai River Basin (HRB), spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme rainfall are analyzed through regional frequency analysis method using L-moments. The accuracy and uncertainty analysis of quantile estimations are also carried out, and the regional and at-site frequency analyses are compared. Results indicate the following: (1) During 1960–2011, AM precipitation at 20 stations in the HRB shows an increasing trend, while at the other 10 stations, it shows a decreasing trend. And both the increased and decreased trends are not significant. (2) The HRB can be categorized into three homogeneous regions via cluster analysis. For both at-site and regional frequency analyses, the root mean square error values increase with the increase in return periods. The estimations are reliable enough for the return periods of less than 100 years. The quantile estimates of large return period from regional frequency analysis are more accurate and have smaller uncertainty than those from at-site frequency analysis. (3) Extreme precipitation in the HRB concentrates in the upstream of the Huai River and YiShuSi water system in the east of the HRB. Generally, the area with extreme precipitation, especially the upper reaches of the Huai River and Yimeng Mountain areas, also has large standard variations of extreme precipitation, which will increase the risk of natural hazards.     

Climate extremes related with rainfall in the State of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: a review of climatological characteristics and recorded trends

This paper presents a synthesis of the main characteristics of precipitation in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) based on extreme rainfall indicators. Daily precipitation data are derived from 56 rainfall stations during the second half of the twentieth century and the 2000s. Eight indices related to extreme precipitation were analyzed. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and the Sen's Curvature were employed to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. The primary climatological aspects and identified trends throughout the last decades are discussed, besides the hydrometeorological impacts associated with them. Lower values of annual total precipitation are recorded in northern Rio de Janeiro (around 800 mm) and higher in the southern State (up to 2,200 mm). The Serra do Mar affects the frequency of heavy precipitation, and the areas near the sea and high relief present the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). These areas also showed a high concentration of flood and landslides events. Most of Rio de Janeiro exhibits precipitation intensity of about 13 mm/day. The maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a gradient from the coast (about 30 days) to the State's interior (around 50 days). Regarding trends, there is a growth of accumulated extreme precipitation in various stations near the ocean. The extreme rainfall in 24 h displays an increase in most Rio de Janeiro (+?1 to?+?5 mm/decade). The consecutive dry and rainy days present similar signs of decreasing trends, suggesting irregularly distributed precipitation in the State. This study is especially relevant for decision-makers who need detailed information in the short and long term to prevent natural hazards like floods and landslides and the related impacts in the environmental and socioeconomic sectors of the Rio de Janeiro.

     

青海省近50年极端降水事件时空分布特征

基于线性倾向估计、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验及空间插值等方法,对1962—2013年28个均匀分布在青海省内的气象站点数据近50 a(1962—2013年)极端降水事件的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明,在长期趋势上青海省极端降水事件呈上升趋势,其强度与频数变化分别具有28 a和15 a±的主周期,并且少数站点在20世纪90年代发生突变;青海省内的极端降水事件在空间上存在明显差异,整体呈自西向东逐渐增强的特征,极端降水事件在南部地区发生频率总体高于北部地区,东南部发生极端降水的频率最高;近50 a青海省内大部分地区极端降水事件的强度与频数均呈上升趋势,其中东北部地区极端降水事件的强度上升趋势较为明显,仅有东南端与西北端呈现下降趋势,极端降水事件频数的上升趋势由东南端及西北端分别向中部加强。     

1960—2017年河西地区降水时空变化特征

利用1960—2017年日降水量资料,采用线性倾向趋势分析、滑动分析和泰森多边形法等,对河西地区多年降水时空变化特征及不同量级降水日数及降水强度的变化趋势进行了研究。结果表明：河西地区年均降水量为99.0 mm,呈现明显的逐年上升趋势,平均倾向率为8.72 mm?（10a）^-1,月降水量为单峰分布,5—10月夏秋汛期降水量占年降水量的89.2%,各季节降水量均呈现显著上升趋势;年均降水日数为36.7天,呈现明显的上升趋势,增幅为3.18 d?（10a）^-1,降水日数主要分布在夏季,约占总降水日数的54.6%;平均降水强度为2.70 mm?d^-1,呈现减弱趋势,变化速率为-0.04 mm?d^-1?（10a）^-1;零星小雨和小雨降水日数均呈现增加趋势,而二者平均降水强度均为下降趋势,小到中雨降水日数和降水强度呈现增加趋势,中雨及以上的降水变化趋势不明显。     

Trends in extreme rainfall over ecologically sensitive Western Ghats and coastal regions of Karnataka: an observational assessment

Rainfall is one of the pivotal climatic variables, which influence spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. In this study, we have attempted to understand the interannual long-term trend analysis of the daily rainfall events of ≥?2.5 mm and rainfall events of extreme threshold, over the Western Ghats and coastal region of Karnataka. High spatial resolution (0.25°?×?0.25°) daily gridded rainfall data set of Indian Meteorological Department was used for this study. Thirty-eight grid points in the study area was selected to analyze the daily precipitation for 113 years (1901–2013). Grid points were divided into two zones: low land (exposed to the sea and low elevated area/coastal region) and high land (interior from the sea and high elevated area/Western Ghats). The indices were selected from the list of climate change indices recommended by ETCCDI and are based on annual rainfall total (RR), yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, consecutive wet days (≥?2.5 mm), Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), annual frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?100 mm), frequency of very heavy rainfall (≥?65–100 mm), moderate rainfall (≥?2.5–65 mm), frequency of medium rainfall (≥?40–65 mm), and frequency of low rainfall (≥?20–40 mm). Mann-Kendall test was applied to the nine rainfall indices, and Theil-Sen estimator perceived the nature and the magnitude of slope in rainfall indices. The results show contrasting trends in the extreme rainfall indices in low land and high land regions. The changes in daily rainfall events in the low land region primarily indicate statistically significant positive trends in the annual total rainfall, yearly 1-day maximum rainfall, SDII, frequency of very heavy rainfall, and heavy rainfall as well as medium rainfall events. Furthermore, the overall annual rainfall strongly correlated with all the rainfall indices in both regions, especially with indices that represent heavy rainfall events which is responsible for the total increase of rainfall.     

华北平原气候时空演变特征

地下水是华北平原主要的供水水源,大气降水入渗补给又是该区地下水的主要补给,因此研究气候时空演变特征对于深入剖析气候变化对其地下水资源的影响具有重要意义。依据中国18个地面气候站1951-2011年逐日气候观测资料,剖析华北平原气候时空演变特征。结果表明:华北平原近60年最低气温显著升高,最高气温基本稳定,平均气温明显升高;空间上呈由西南向东北逐渐降低、由沿海向内陆增高的趋势。降水量总体呈逐渐减少趋势,空间上由山前向滨海逐渐减弱后增强;对比分析典型极端丰枯水年的降水分布特征,不同降水年空间分布差异显著。水面蒸发量整体呈下降趋势,空间上南、北部大于中部。华北平原气候总体向暖干化方向发展,两次突变主要发生在20世纪60年代中期和70年代初。气候变化和人类活动是影响地下水资源的两个重要因素,极端气候则加强了对地下水的影响。因此,定量区分气候变化与人类活动对地下水的影响是有待进一步深入探讨的问题。     

Evaluation of rainfall erosivity and its temporal variation in the Yanhe River catchment of the Chinese Loess Plateau

The potential of rain to generate soil erosion is known as the rainfall erosivity (R), and its estimation is fundamental for a better understanding of the erosive ability of certain rainfall events. In this paper, we investigated the temporal variations of rainfall erosivity using common daily rainfall data from four meteorological stations during 1956 to 1989 and 2008 to 2010 periods in the Yanhe River catchment of the Chinese Loess Plateau. The adaptability of several simplified calculation models for R was evaluated and compared with the results of previous studies. An exponential model based on the modified Fournier index (MFI) was considered as the optimum for our study area. By considering the monthly distribution and coefficient of variation of annual precipitation, equations based on two indices, the MFI and its modification F _F , produced a higher calculation accuracy than mean annual precipitation. The rainfall erosivity in the Yanhe River catchment has a remarkable interannual difference, with a seasonality index ranging from 0.69 to 1.05 and a precipitation concentration index from 14.51 to 27.46. In addition to the annual rainfall amounts, the extreme wave of monthly rainfall distribution also has an effect on the magnitude and temporal variation of rainfall erosivity, especially interannual variation. For long time series of rainfall erosivity, a trend coefficient r of ?0.07 indicated a slight decline in erosivity in the Yanhe River catchment from 1956 to 2010.     

Hydroclimatic fluctuations of the Upper Narmada catchment and its association with break-monsoon days over India

In this paper, hydroclimatic fluctuations of the Upper Narmada catchment (upto Narmadasagar damsite) have been studied by examining the time series (1901–80) of (i) 1-to 10-day annual extreme rainfall; (ii) seasonal total rainfall between May and October; (iii) the precipitation concentration index (PCI); (iv) a modified version of PCI(MPCI); and (v) parameters of the periods contributing specified percentages of rainfall to annual total. Most of these parameters followed the normal distribution and did not show any significant long-term trend. However, some dominant long period oscillations have been noticed in extreme rainfall, seasonal rainfall, PCI and MPCI series. Influence of break-monsoon days over India during July and August on the rainfall activities of the Upper Narmada catchment has also been investigated and salient findings discussed.     

Rainfall variability and indices of extreme rainfall-analysis and perception study for two stations over Central Himalaya,India

The analysis of rainfall pattern and indices of extreme rainfall events is performed for two meteorological stations located in the Central Himalayan Region which is highly vulnerable to rain-induced hazards. The records of these rain-induced disasters suggest that such events are generally observed in later part of monsoon season, when soil is saturated after monsoon rains. An attempt is made here to test trends of 19 different extreme rainfall indices that have been widely used in the literature, using daily rainfall data for two urban centres (Nainital and Almora) over the period 1992–2005. We have used statistical tools such as Sen’s method and Mann–Kendall test for detection of trend in annual rainfall, monsoon rainfall, number of rainy days and 1-day extreme rainfall. Principal component analysis gives the correlation between different extreme rainfall indices. Time series of principal components are representing the trends of extreme indices, their variation and interrelation between different indices. The perception study conducted in the same sites indicates that extreme rainfall events and change in rainfall amount and timing are well perceived by the local people.     

Assessing vegetation dynamics and their relationships with climatic variability in Heilongjiang province, northeast China

In this study, the vegetation dynamics in Heilongjiang province and their relationships with climate variability were assessed using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and meteorological datasets from 1981 to 2003. The conclusions from our results are as follows: (1) After 1981, vegetation cover, as indicated by the NDVI, exhibited an insignificant increasing tendency. However, the inter-annual variations of the NDVI showed apparent spatial differentiations. (2) The inter-annual changes of the NDVI were different from season to season. The spring and autumn NDVI values increased, while the summer and winter NDVI decreased. (3) The annual NDVI was significantly correlated with precipitation. Thus, as compared to temperature, precipitation was the dominant climatic factor affecting the vegetation dynamics in Heilongjiang province. (4) The trend in the NDVI showed a marked homogeneity corresponding to regional and seasonal variations in climate. Additionally, land use changes also play an important role in influencing the NDVI trends over some regions. All of these findings will enrich our knowledge of the natural forces that impact the stability of boreal ecosystems and provide a scientific basis for the environmental management in Heilongjiang province in response to climate change and human activities.     

1961-2015年吉林省极端降水指数时空变化特征

利用1961-2015年吉林省50个气象站的逐日降水量资料,通过RClimDex v1.1软件计算11个极端降水指数,采用线性倾向估计和Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了吉林省极端降水指数的时空变化规律。结果表明：1961-2015年吉林省最长连续无雨日数（CDD）自西向东逐渐降低,其他极端降水指数均呈自西向东逐渐增加的趋势分布。吉林省CDD呈极显著的下降趋势,下降速率为-1.99 d·（10a）^-1,其他极端降水指数波动变化,线性趋势不显著。吉林省各极端降水指数均在20世纪70年代达到最小值。绝大多数极端降水指数存在3 a和12 a左右的周期变化,3 a左右的主周期通过了0.05的显著性水平检验。吉林省极端降水指数除CDD随经度、海拔的增加而显著降低,随纬度的增加而显著增加外,其他大部分极端降水指数随经度、海拔的增加而增加,随纬度的增加而降低。     

北京地区降水极值时空演变特征

为了科学评估变化环境下城市地区降水结构变化和深入认识特大型城市降水极值演变特征,以北京市为例,采用《北京市暴雨图集》中6种历时（10 min、30 min、1 h、6 h、24 h和72 h）的年最大暴雨统计数据和北京地区45个雨量站点1960-2012年汛期（6-9月）逐日降水观测资料,分别选择年最大值法和百分位阈值法,基于暴雨图集中的6种历时暴雨的统计特征值和两种百分位阈值下（95%和99%）的3种极端降水指标（发生次数、降水量和降水贡献率）分析北京地区降水极值的时空变化特征。研究结果表明:① 北京地区降水极值的空间分布受地形特征和城市化发展等因素影响而呈现出从东向西递减的趋势,且形成了局部区域高值中心;② 近50年来北京地区极端降水发生频次、极端降水量和极端降水的贡献率均表现出显著的下降趋势,在95%（99%）阈值条件下极端降水发生次数、极端降水量和极端降水贡献率的下降速率分别为0.13次/10 a（0.04次/10 a）、11.59 mm/10a（5.28 mm/a）和2%/10 a（1%/10 a）;③ 两个阶段（1960-1985年和1986-2012年）的城区与近郊的极端降水指标差异表现不同,1960-1985年在极端降水频次方面郊区占优,而极端降水量和贡献率则是城区较高,1986-2012年3个指标均表现为城区较高。     

Fifty-year rainfall change and its effect on droughts and floods in Wenzhou,China

Based on daily, monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, monthly duration and flood-affected area data from 1954 to 2007, we examined the absolute and relative change trends of rainfall and their effects on hazard intensity in Wenzhou city, China. The long-term trend of precipitation was studied by linear regression, moving average, cumulative anomaly and Z index methods, respectively. Our results show that there was no significant downward trend of annual precipitation. In contrast, there was significant decrease in autumn, July, mid-January and early June and significant increase in early January and late May, especially in late June. During 1954 and 2007, although significant fluctuation existed in the absolute value of precipitation, the relative changes of wet and dry were not significant compared with the average. The 10-year decrease in precipitation was 23.37 mm in autumn, 14.85 mm in July, 0.33 mm in mid-January and 6.87 mm in early June; while the 10-year increase was 0.35 mm in early January, 3.05 mm in late May and 8.57 mm in late June, respectively. Moreover, we found that 1964, 1966, 1977 and 1995 were the transition periods when the rainfall Z index was at peaks, the flood intensity was high, and the drought intensity was relatively low. On the other hand, 1958, 1968, 1971, 1980, 1989 and 1992 were the periods when the rainfall Z index was at valleys, the flood intensity was low, and the drought intensity was relatively high. Taken together, we demonstrated the obvious effects of precipitation changes on flood and drought intensities.