中国民航参与国家碳市场框架方案研究

基于民航业特点及中国民航发展阶段,提出中国民航参与国家碳市场的框架性方案,重点对中国航空CO2排放总量控制目标设计及目标分解方案进行了论述,并从公平性和经济成本角度对所提方案进行分析。分析的结论是:方案不会在中国航空企业之间造成实质性竞争扭曲,不同情景下行业购买碳配额的成本每年增加1.7亿~14.3亿美元,若考虑中国民航至少60%的成本转嫁能力,方案不会对中国民航发展造成严重制约。     

节能减排与中国经济的低碳发展

 自1978年实行改革开放以来,中国走的是一条赶超型或压缩型的工业化道路。伴随着经济的高速增长,发达国家上百年工业化过程中分阶段出现的种种资源和环境问题在中国集中显现。面对资源短缺、环境污染和气候变化对经济增长的瓶颈性约束,国家在"十一五"规划纲要中提出了节能减排的具体目标。文章概述了"十一五"规划提出节能减排目标的背景,分析了其对控制温室气体排放的重要意义,总结了目前节能减排工作取得的成绩和存在的困难,提出了中国发展低碳经济的政策建议。     

实施低碳水泥标准的影响及协同减排效果分析

采用MAP-CGE模型,模拟了我国水泥行业实施低碳水泥标准对不同生产工艺产出、能耗及污染排放的影响,测算了对其边际减排成本和均衡价格的影响,分析了对不同污染物的协同减排效果。模拟结果表明：实施低碳水泥标准有利于水泥生产工艺的升级换代,并有助于水泥行业节能减排;在现有技术水平下,水泥行业在减排1 t CO2的同时将带来约1.17 kg的SO2减排量和4.44 kg的NOx减排量;实施低碳水泥标准对于水泥行业控制NOx排放很有利;但水泥行业也需承担减排成本并导致其均衡价格的小幅上升。     

节能减排与中国经济的低碳发展

自1978年实行改革开放以来,中国走的是一条赶超型或压缩型的工业化道路。伴随着经济的高速增长,发达国家上百年工业化过程中分阶段出现的种种资源和环境问题在中国集中显现。面对资源短缺、环境污染和气候变化对经济增长的瓶颈性约束,国家在"十一五"规划纲要中提出了节能减排的具体目标。文章概述了"十一五"规划提出节能减排目标的背景,分析了其对控制温室气体排放的重要意义,总结了目前节能减排工作取得的成绩和存在的困难,提出了中国发展低碳经济的政策建议。     

广东省温室气体监测平台建设前期工作进展与存在问题

简要概括了近年依托广东省发改委低碳发展专项与中国气象局气候变化基础能力建设等项目取得的重要研究进展。摸清了广东省温室气体观测的现状,对广东省温室气体现有观测数据进行了对比分析和质量评估;对温室气体观测质控方法进行研究,基本掌握了观测标准传递、标校方法流程;基于气候相似性理论初步确定了可代表广东省温室气体监测的4个区域代表站与21个地市级子站的站址;掌握了利用卫星遥感资料反演广东省对流层CO2柱浓度的技术方法;移植并掌握了CarbonTracker-2010模式及其评估方法,建立了可应用于广东的碳源汇模式系统;初步引进了气候经济综合评估模式(RICE);建立了可实时显示的温室气体可视化系统平台。目前,与我国其他"五省八市"低碳试点省市相比,广东省温室气体监测站网建设已存在明显差距,急待理顺现有观测站存在的问题,并按WMO观测规范,建立标校体系,加强数据质控与技术队伍建设。     

基于CGE模型的上海市碳排放交易的环境经济影响分析

通过应用上海市能源－环境-经济CGE模型,针对碳排放交易机制所涉及的重要要素,包括覆盖行业和分配方式等设计不同的情景,模拟了在不同的就业条件下碳排放交易机制对经济的影响和对传统污染物的协同减排效应。结果表明,如果碳交易纳管行业释放出来的劳动力能及时被其他行业吸纳和消化,则碳交易对GDP的整体影响为正,碳交易的实施产生了双重红利。若劳动力不能及时转移,则碳交易对GDP的整体影响为负,2020年不同情景下GDP损失为1.5%～2.4%;相比覆盖部分行业,在覆盖全部行业的情景下,碳价格最低,从2013年的30元/t增加到2020年的202元/t,对高耗能行业的竞争力影响相对较小,但是由于所有行业都纳入到纳管范围,使得对GDP的负面影响最大;此外,实施碳交易能明显改善环境效益,有助于推动SO₂和NO_X减排目标的实现。     

中国水泥行业节能减排措施的协同控制效应评估研究

水泥行业是温室气体与局地污染物协同控制的重点行业。以往该行业的协同控制评估或针对个别企业,或采用自上而下和自下而上模拟模型结合情景分析评估行业协同减排效益,尚缺乏系统评估水泥行业全系列节能减排措施（或技术）协同控制效果的研究。文中首先测算水泥行业24项节能减排措施综合大气污染物协同减排量,再通过协同控制效应坐标系、交叉弹性、单位污染物减排成本等评估指标和方法,对这些措施开展协同控制效果评估。结果表明大多数节能减排措施可协同减排局地大气污染物;协同减排潜力最大的是结构调整措施;能效提升与节能措施的协同减排成本较低,但减排潜力有限。本文强化了水泥行业节能减排措施的协同控制效能特性分析,可为水泥行业开展协同控制路径规划提供参考。     

中国二氧化碳地区间排放差异分析及减排政策建议

利用统计数据,参照政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）的方法,对2008年我国各省区CO₂的排放情况进行了计算分析,并对东西部地区进行对比得出：东部发达地区在人均排放量和排放密度等方面均高于西部欠发达地区,但东部地区的排放强度却明显低于西部地区。国家经济战略,东、西部地区技术、经济社会发展水平差异是造成这一趋势的主要原因。提出了我国实现温室气体减排目标、分解减排任务的建议。     

行业气象服务效益评估方法及其研究

科学、准确的对各行业气象服务效益进行评估和分析,对政府和企业正确决策,提高气象防灾减灾能力,具有重要的作用和意义.采用剂量-反应分析和权变分析相结合的研究方法,研究构建了行业气象服务效益评估模式.该评估模式以典型企业的气象服务贡献率的实际测定值为参考值,并运用专家评估法,由行业专家估测出气象服务在该行业生产中的贡献率,在此基础上分析评估出行业的气象服务效益值.应用这一模式,按照"选定气象服务敏感性行业→各敏感性行业气象服务效益评估→行业气象服务总效益汇总与分析"的框架,在全国范围内对行业气象服务总效益进行了实证评估和分析.研究表明,在中国目前气象服务和经济发展水平下,气象服务在各行业中产生的年平均总效益至少不低于2793亿元人民币(不舍成本).     

基于多目标规划的中国二氧化碳减排的宏观经济成本估计

CO₂减排的宏观经济代价对处于不同发展阶段的国家有着巨大的差异,对此给出科学的估计具有重要的科学和现实意义。本文运用基于投入产出的多目标规划对中国CO₂减排的宏观经济成本进行了估算。结果表明：CO₂排放控制对我国经济的影响十分显著,在目前条件下,我国2010年CO₂减排的宏观经济成本为3100～4024元/t CO₂;而且减排的力度越大,相应的单位减排的宏观经济成本越高。采掘业、石油行业、化学工业、金属冶炼等行业和部门是CO₂的高排放部门,但同时也是实现减排较有潜力的部门。     

Sectoral approaches for a post-2012 climate regime: a taxonomy

Sectoral approaches have been gaining currency in the international climate debate as a possible remedy to the shortfalls of the Kyoto Protocol. Proponents argue that a sector-based architecture can more easily invite the participation of developing countries, address competitiveness issues, and enable immediate emissions reductions. However, given the numerous proposals, much confusion remains as to what sectoral approaches actually are. This article provides a simple, yet comprehensive, taxonomy of the various proposals for sectoral approaches. Based on the dual criteria of content and actors, three such types are identified and described: government targets and timetables; industry targets and timetables; and transnational technology cooperation. For each of these types, existing proposals and ongoing initiatives are discussed. In a second step, the article analyses the political landscape in which sectoral approaches are being debated, identifying the interests of their key advocates as well as the concerns of their critics. The Japanese government and energy-intensive manufacturing industries represent the main proponents of sectoral approaches to address the problems of carbon leakage and economic competitiveness. Developing countries, on the other hand, are wary of attempts to impose emissions reduction targets on their economies through sectoral target-setting. They, therefore, interpret sectoral approaches as sector-based forms of technology cooperation and technology transfer.     

Sectoral targets for developing countries: combining ‘common but differentiated re-sponsibilities’ with ‘meaningful participation’

Although a global cap-and-trade system is seen by many researchers as the most cost-efficient solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the governments of developing countries refuse to enter into such a system in the short term. Many scholars and stakeholders, including the European Commission, have thus proposed various types of commitments for developing countries that appear less stringent, such as sectoral approaches. A macroeconomic assessment of such a sectoral approach is provided for developing countries. Two policy scenarios in particular are assessed, in which developed countries continue with Kyoto-type absolute commitments, while developing countries adopt an emissions trading system limited to electricity generation and linked to developed countries' cap-and-trade systems. In the first scenario, CO₂ allowances are auctioned by the government, which distributes its revenues as a lump sum to households. In a second scenario, the auction revenues are used to reduce taxes on, or to give subsidies to, electricity generation. The quantitative analysis, conducted with a hybrid general equilibrium model, shows that such options provide almost as much emissions reduction as a global cap-and-trade system. Moreover, in the second sectoral scenario, GDP losses in developing countries are much lower than with a global cap-and-trade system, as is also the effect on the electricity price.     

Long-term climate policy: international legal aspects of sector-based approaches

Abstract

The aim of this article is to discuss the international legal implications of a sector-based approach to long-term climate policy. Sector-based approaches have emerged as a possible way of engaging all the major emitters of greenhouse gases into the system. The article divides sectoral approaches into two main categories based on their legal relevance. Substantive sectoral models focus on ways of defining emission levels for global industry sectors. From the point of view of international law, substantive sectoral models could be integrated into the existing climate change regime if the Parties so agree. Procedural sectoral models focus on actors. Some procedural sectoral models envisage treaty regimes involving non-State actors, such as organizations representing global industry sectors undertaking to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. The main focus of the article is on these models.     

Integration of ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change policies in Viet Nam

There is growing recognition of the importance of ecosystem-based approaches for adaptation to climate change—it is a cost-effective measure that has multiple benefits and can overcome many of the drawbacks of more common engineering adaptation options. Viet Nam has a rich biodiversity and is also one of the most vulnerable countries impacted by climate change. Climate change policies have been adopted at national and local levels as well as by sector, making Viet Nam one of the nations to most systematically fulfill their obligation under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Consequently, we have used Viet Nam as a case study, to assess the integration of ecosystem-based approach to adaptation to climate change. We found that ecosystem-based adaptation is being implemented in some projects but, overall, is inadequately considered by Viet Nam’s climate change policies. Instead, policies predominantly rename infrastructure projects as climate change adaptation and focus on hard solutions for disaster reduction, rather than responding to long-term climate change through ecosystem-based adaptation. Moreover, ecosystem-based adaptation projects have focused on only a few relevant types of ecosystems. Viet Nam should revise its existing climate change policies and sectoral strategies to integrate ecosystem-based adaptation across different scales of governance. As other nations develop adaptation policies at different scales, the lesson from Viet Nam is that engineering measures need to be balanced with ecosystem-based adaptation for more affordable and effective responses to climate change.     

Oil prices and energy technology innovation: An empirical analysis

To achieve environmental sustainability and reduce their vulnerability to oil shocks, countries can develop new energy technologies. Technological advances reduce the cost of structural changes in the energy economy, and thus also increase the political feasibility of such changes. But what explains international variation in the form and quality of energy technology innovation? We build on previous theories and offer an integrated account: increasing oil prices reinforce existing sectoral innovation systems, both politically and economically, thus allowing public policymakers and private entrepreneurs to profitably invest in new energy technologies. We test this theoretical argument against data on public R&D expenditures and patents in the domain of renewable energy technology for industrialized countries from 1989 to 2007. We find strong support for the interactive hypothesis. Thus, we contribute to literatures on (i) domestic responses to international shocks, (ii) environmental sustainability and energy security, and (iii) the political economy of technology innovation.     

Sector-based approach to the post-2012 climate change policy architecture

A sectoral approach to GHG emissions reductions in developing countries is proposed as a key component of the post-2012 climate change mitigation framework. In this approach, the ten highest-emitting developing countries in the electricity and other major industrial sectors pledge to meet voluntary, ‘no-lose’ GHG emissions targets in these sectors. No penalties are incurred for failing to meet a target, but emissions reductions achieved beyond the target level earn emissions reduction credits (ERCs) that can be sold to industrialized nations. Participating developing countries establish initial ‘no-lose’ emissions targets, based upon their national circumstances, from sector-specific energyintensity benchmarks that have been developed by independent experts. Industrialized nations then offer incentives for the developing countries to adopt more stringent emissions targets through a ‘Technology Finance and Assistance Package’, which helps to overcome financial and other barriers to technology transfer and deployment. These sectorspecific energy-intensity benchmarks could also serve as a means for establishing national economy-wide targets in developed countries in the post-2012 regime. Preliminary modelling of a hybrid scenario, in which Annex I countries adopt economy-wide absolute GHG emissions targets and high-emitting developing countries adopt ‘no-lose’ sectoral targets, indicates that such an approach significantly improves the likelihood that atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ can be stabilized at 450 ppmv by the end of the century.     

Valueloading And Uncertainty In A Sector-based Differentiation Scheme For Emission Allowances

The Triptych approach is a sectoral approach for differentiation of quantitative greenhouse gas emission reduction objectives. In this study we investigate the ranges in emission reduction targets that result from differences in valueladen assumptions and uncertainties in input data and parameters. In order to assess the effect of highly valueladen assumptions on resulting objectives we used two approaches. First we performed a sensitivity analysis. Then we elaborated the approach from four ideal-typical value-orientations: the administrator, the businessman, the campaigner and the survivor. For each of these value-orientations we specified corresponding sets of assumptions of highly valueladen parameters. Within each set, we also assessed uncertainties for the remaining parameters and input data. We assessed the strength and we quantified their inexactnesses with probability distribution functions. Next, we carried out Monte Carlo simulations in each of the four value-orientations to quantify error propagation from the inexactnesses in input data and parameters. We found targets for the year 2015 for Annex I countries differed up to around 20%-points over the four value-orientations. For developing countries differences in allowances were found up to the order of four. In addition, results are affected to a large extent by uncertainties in the other input data and parameters. Ranges in the outcome resulting from uncertainties are between 10 and 35%-points for Annex I countries, depending on the value-orientation chosen and between 20 and 120%-points for non-Annex I countries. However, the ranking of countries within the calculated differentiation remains roughly the same, an exception being the ranking that resulted from the businessman’s perspective. Other consistent combinations of valueladen assumptions may result in objectives that are outside the range that we based on the four value-orientations. We concluded that care should be taken when assessing valueloading in calculations schemes for emissions objectives based on a limited number of value-orientations only. Our analysis clearly underlines the relevance of making explicit policy variables in schemes for the differentiation of commitments. It is necessary to reach consensus on these variables if such schemes are to support negotiations on greenhouse gas emissions allowances.     

气候政策核心要素的演化及多目标的协同

分析了气候政策中减缓和适应的差异性和协同性,回顾了气候政策的核心要素（减缓和适应）的演化及其与可持续发展政策的密切关系,指出目前气候政策中多要素协同的重要性。强调应该特别关注气候政策的实施性,应将其纳入国家和部门的规划和政策中。最后提出了气候政策中多目标协同需关注的三方面问题：如何确定气候政策的各目标;为保证多目标协同的实施,如何提升相应的能力;现有的资金管理机制如何更好地与部门投资结合。     

Mitigating methane emissions from livestock: a global analysis of sectoral policies

Methane emissions from livestock enteric fermentation and manure management represent about 40% of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector and are projected to increase substantially in the coming decades, with most of the growth occurring in non-Annex 1 countries. To mitigate livestock methane, incentive policies based on producer-level emissions are generally not feasible because of high administrative costs and producer transaction costs. In contrast, incentive policies based on sectoral emissions are likely administratively feasible, even in developing countries. This study uses an economic model of global agriculture to estimate the effects of two sectoral mitigation policies: a carbon tax and an emissions trading scheme based on average national methane emissions per unit of commodity. The analysis shows how the composition and location of livestock production and emissions change in response to the policies. Results illustrate the importance of global mitigation efforts: when policies are limited to Annex 1 countries, increased methane emissions in non-Annex 1 countries offset approximately two-thirds of Annex 1 emissions reductions. While non-Annex 1 countries face substantial disincentives to enacting domestic carbon taxes, developing countries could benefit from participating in a global sectoral emissions trading scheme. We illustrate one scheme in which non-Annex 1 countries collectively earn USD 2.4 billion annually from methane emission permit sales when methane is priced at USD 30/t CO₂-eq.     

Credited forest carbon sinks: how the cost reduction is allocated among countries and sectors

Forest carbon sinks have been included in the Kyoto Protocol as one of the mechanisms for mitigating climate change. Consequently, credited sinks decrease the need to reduce emissions.We analyse in detail both the economywide and the sectoral effects of inclusion of carbon sinks as agreed upon in Bonn and Marrakesh for the first commitment period of 2008–2012. The focus of our analysis is the special treatment for Canada and Japan that allows them larger sinks. The analysis is performed with the multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GTAP-E.

New Zealand benefits most from the inclusion of sinks as it gains large carbon sinks from afforestation. Also in Sweden, Canada and Japan the costs of achieving the emission target are considerably reduced. Of these countries, only Canada has high costs without sinks. Thus credited sinks partly reduce the difference in economic burden of achieving the Kyoto target among countries. Even though larger sinks clearly benefit Canada and Japan, their effect on other countries, either on the economywide or on the sectoral level, remains marginal. Allowing larger sinks is, indeed, of relatively minor importance for the world economy and emission reduction, compared to the US withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol.