A qualitative Natech damage scale for the impact of floods on selected industrial facilities

There is increasing evidence that natural disasters can trigger technological accidents and damage. These so-called Natech accidents can pose a significant risk to regions that are unprepared for responding to them. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has recognised the risk associated with Natech events and has started systematic research into Natechs and their underlying dynamics. This work investigates the risk associated with the flooding of industrial installations through an analysis of past case histories and using expert judgement. The potential impact of three levels of flood severity on selected industrial facilities storing and/or processing (eco-)toxic, flammable or explosive materials is analysed qualitatively and a scale is developed that links the flood intensity to the level of potential damage. Our analysis indicates that natural disasters have the potential for triggering hazmat releases and other types of technological accidents. Hence, natural disasters should be considered as separate accident-triggering events in the planning, design and operating stages of industrial facilities that process or store hazardous substances. Our work revealed a lack of detailed information on the occurrence of Natech events which indicates not necessarily a scarcity of Natechs but rather a lack of standardised reporting and record keeping.     

Industrial accidents triggered by earthquakes,floods and lightning: lessons learned from a database analysis

Natural hazards and disasters can cause major accidents in chemical and process installations. These so-called Natech accidents can result in hazardous-materials releases due to damage to process and storage units, or pipes. In order to understand the dynamics of Natech events, accidents triggered by earthquakes, floods and lightning recorded in industrial accident databases were analysed. This allowed the identification of the most vulnerable equipment types, their modes of failure due to natural-event impact and the final accident scenarios. Moreover, lessons learned for future accident prevention and mitigation were derived. The analysis showed that pipes and storage tanks are the most vulnerable equipment for earthquakes, floods and lightning, calling for more research of equipment behaviour under natural-event loading. The damage modes and states are strongly dependent on the characteristics of the impacting natural event. Toxic dispersion, fires and explosions were observed as a consequence of all three types of analysed natural events. In the case of floods, two additional scenarios were identified. These are water contamination and the formation of toxic and/or flammable vapours upon reaction of the released chemicals with the floodwaters. The overall number of recorded Natech accidents was found to range from 2 to 5% of all reported accidents in the analysed databases.     

Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

Consideration of natural hazards in the design and risk management of industrial facilities

Recent chemical accidents precipitated by natural disasters have prompted governments in the United States, Japan, and Europe, among other countries, to re-evaluate current practices in the design and risk management of industrial facilities. This paper presents an overview of natural hazard design considerations and external events risk management requirements in the industrial sector, with particular emphasis on industrial practices in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The analysis shows that although regulations exist to ensure industrial plant structures are built to resist natural hazards (up to the design level), there are few laws to address the performance of non-structural elements and safety and emergency response measures during a natural disaster. Laws usually also refer to natural hazards only indirectly, and provisions to prevent or respond to simultaneous disasters from single or multiple sources concurrent with the natural disaster are usually not present.

Tsunami risk perception and preparedness on the east coast of New Zealand during the 2009 Samoan Tsunami warning

Several coastal communities on the North Island of New Zealand were evacuated during the 2009 Samoan Tsunami warning. This study aimed to explore the risk perception and preparedness levels of a small cohort of people living in an at-risk area. Qualitative data were collected using semi-structured interviews from fifteen residents evacuated from the town of Pauanui on the Coromandel Peninsula. Thematic content analysis showed common themes and gaps where emergency management systems were deficient. This study found that participants had inaccurate risk perception, a high reliance on warning systems, low levels of preparedness and lacked knowledge about natural warning signs of tsunamis. The themes identified are useful indicators of where current systems are failing people but need to be expanded to generalise results. The event, on which this study is based, provided a unique opportunity to explore people’s reactions to a predicted tsunami. The study confirmed the findings of prior studies that people in at-risk places are not necessarily well informed or prepared. The paper contributes further knowledge to inform the advance of public education and community engagement with respect to tsunami preparedness.     

The Tous dam disaster of 1982 and the origins of integrated flood risk management in Spain

The failure of the Tous dam in 1982 caused one of the most important socio-natural disasters in Spain during the twentieth century. That event triggered a paradigm change in the way disaster risks were perceived and managed, not only locally, but also at multiple levels of governance. Fifteen interviews with relevant stakeholders, content analysis of scientific literature, and review of historical and media accounts indicate that the collapse of the Tous dam had the two major effects. First, it prompted a process of institutional development, which led to the growth, and increase in complexity of the organizations involved both in vertical and horizontal communication of disaster risk reduction. Second, actions taken and experiences gained in dealing with disaster risk reduction in the Tous area were used as a benchmark to develop new strategies, as well as new mechanisms for communication and planning in other territories and other risk domains in Spain. This paper also identified the three main stages in the evolution of disaster risk reduction planning in the area: (1) After the collapse of the Tous dam, disaster risk reduction strategies in Spain focused on improving preparedness in order to reduce short-term risks. (2) Disaster management in the 1990s was strongly influenced by international initiatives, which emphasized the contextualization of risk and the importance in long-term disaster risk reduction measures such as land-use planning. (3) The European Water Framework Directive (2000) and, more recently, the Floods Directive (2007) are exerting a strong influence on the development of a new Spanish flood policy that focuses on preventive measures. However, this process is far from complete and many issues still remain unresolved: dealing with different domains of risk action, integrating concepts of ecological resilience and climate change, and promoting public awareness and effective participation.     

Potential loading damage to industrial storage tanks due to volcanic ash fallout

The phenomenon of volcanic fallout ash from Mt. Etna in Sicily (Italy) is well known and frequent in recent years, as in the period 2001–2004. As a consequence, significant problems for the population, road, rail and air traffic and production activities have occurred. The industrial areas of Catania and Augusta-Priolo, located in south eastern Sicily, might be involved during particular weather conditions. This paper aims at determining the potential scenarios of damage to industrial facilities caused by volcanic ash fallout. The work has been focused on the study of both fixed and floating roof storage tanks, containing flammable liquids, and examines extreme failures damage causing the greatest loss of containment for these facilities. To include scenarios arising from natural phenomena (Na-Tech events) in the standard risk assessment procedure, the estimation of the vulnerability of these facilities is necessary. The study has been applied to the area surrounding Mt. Etna, and the procedure can also be extended to other case studies.     

Groundwater vulnerability and contamination risk assessment of the Weining Plain,using a modified DRASTIC model and quantized pollution loading method

Groundwater resources have become more vulnerable to contamination due to rapid population growth and economic development. This study aimed to assess the groundwater contamination risk in the Weining Plain, China. Based on the specific conditions of the Weining Plain, a new model DRTSWI with a weighting scheme determined by analytic hierarchy process was developed to evaluate the intrinsic groundwater vulnerability for the study area. An integrated approach, combining the toxicity, the release possibility, and the potential release quantity of the pollutants, was used to estimate the pollution loading. The groundwater contamination risk results were obtained by overlaying the intrinsic vulnerability and pollution loading maps. These indicated that two industrial parks pose the main threat to groundwater quality, due to their unfavorable hydrogeological setting and potential pollution sources on the surface. Some areas in and around the industrial parks exhibit groundwater pollution, which was identified on the contamination risk map using buffer analysis. High risk areas are industries with high or medium vulnerability. The vulnerability and contamination risk maps developed for this study are valuable tools for environmental planning and can be used for predictive management of groundwater resources.     

Flood risks in a dynamic urban agglomeration: a conceptual and methodological assessment framework

The analysis of risk and its causes is a crucial prerequisite for the development of risk prevention and mitigation measures in the scope of disaster risk management. This paper investigates on the problem of annually occurring floods in Santiago de Chile applying a framework for risk assessment, especially developed for the usage in a large urban area. A case-specific set of variables and indicators was compiled to show the relevant components and their interrelations influencing the flood risk and to provide a tool for monitoring and evaluating their changes over time. Methods for gathering information about the three components of risk, that is, hazard, elements at risk, and vulnerability, comprise the interpretation of very high resolution satellite data, the analysis of GIS, and census data as well as household surveys and expert interviews. The work shows how the assessment framework can be applied in practice to derive a geodata-based flood risk map at the scale of the administrative unit of a building block that can be used as a local decision-making tool.     

Risk and vulnerability analysis in practice: evaluation of analyses conducted in Swedish municipalities

Risk and vulnerability analysis (RVA) can benefit the process of preventing and preparing for disasters, both by generating a basis for making decisions and by enhancing risk awareness, safety culture and response capacity through the RVA process itself. In studying and understanding the practices related to RVA, insights can be gained regarding ways in which the RVA can be improved in society, as well as into how methods for RVA can be designed to suit the particular context. However, studies of this sort are rare. This paper presents an evaluation of RVA performed by Swedish municipalities, which are important actors in the Swedish emergency management system. This is done by employing a systematic, design science approach outlined in the paper. Document studies and interviews were used to collect data on the analyses performed by the municipalities, and the evaluation shows that there is room for improvement. The results can be especially relevant for municipalities developing their RVA practices, as well as for other actors performing similar types of analyses.     

苏北玄武岩分布区滑坡研究与防治

在苏皖交界处的盱眙、六合新生代玄武岩分布区,滑坡灾害十分发育,给当地经济建设和人民生活带来了较大危害。通过分析滑坡类型、地质特征和活动规律,提出了防治灾害的具体措施。     

滑坡风险评估实践中的难点与对策

滑坡风险评估的难点和问题一直是国内外学者讨论和研究的热点。当前,发达国家和香港地区制定了滑坡风险评估与管理的指导原则或规范,并通过案例研究为执行这些规范或指南提供了范例。在国内现阶段滑坡风险评估的实践中风险评估还难以实施,问题主要是如何合理地获取适宜的数据、模型方法与实践脱节、缺乏标准与规范,以及结果的验证与检验等。从数据获取与更新、风险评估与制图模型方法、标准与技术方法体系和结果的验证4个方面进行论述,并提出了相应的对策方案,以期起到抛砖引玉的作用,推动和促进国内地质灾害风险评估管理指南的实施。     

Multilayer-exposure maps as a basis for a regional vulnerability assessment for landslides: applied in Waidhofen/Ybbs,Austria

Assessments of natural hazards and risks are beneficial for sustainable planning and natural hazard risk management. On a regional scale, quantitative hazard and risk assessments are data intensive and methods developed are difficult to transfer to other regions and to analyse different periods in a given region. Such transfers could be beneficial regarding factors of global change influencing the patterns of natural hazard and risk. The aim of this study was to show the landslide exposure of different elements at risk in one map, e.g. residential buildings and critical infrastructure, as a solid basis for an in-depth analysis of vulnerability and consequent risk. This enables to overcome the data intensive assessments on a regional scale and highlights the potential hotspots for risk analysis. The study area is located in the alpine foreland in Lower Austria and comprises around 112 km². The results show the different levels of exposure, as well as how many layers of elements at risk are affected. Several exposure hotspots can be delineated throughout the study area. This allows a decision on in-depth analysis of hotspots not only by indicated locations but also by a rank resulting from the different layers of incorporated elements at risk.     

Quantitative analysis of consequences to masonry buildings interacting with slow-moving landslide mechanisms: a case study

Quantitative analysis of consequences (in terms of expected monetary losses) induced by slow-moving landslide mechanisms to buildings or infrastructure networks is a key step in the landslide risk management framework. It can influence risk mitigation policies as well as help authorities in charge of land management in addressing/prioritizing interventions or restoration works. This kind of analysis generally requires multidisciplinary approaches, which cannot disregard a thorough knowledge of landslide mechanisms, and rich datasets that are seldom available as testified by the limited number of examples in the scientific literature. With reference to the well-documented case study of Lungro town (Calabria region, southern Italy)—severely affected by slow-moving landslides of different types—the present paper proposes and implements a multi-step procedure for monetary loss forecasting associated with different landslide kinematic/damage scenarios. Procedures to typify landslide mechanisms and physical vulnerability analysis, previously tested in the same area, are here appropriately merged to derive both kinematic and damage scenarios to the exposed buildings. Then, the outcomes are combined with economic data in order to forecast monetary loss at municipal scale. The proposed method and the obtained results, once further validated, could stand as reference case for other urban areas in similar geo-environmental contexts in order to derive useful information on expected direct consequences unless slow-moving landslide risk mitigation measures are taken.     

Capturing the multifaceted phenomena of socioeconomic vulnerability

Vulnerability and disaster risk assessment has been evaluated from different perspectives with focus on global or national scale. There is a lack of methodologies on city scale, which are able to capture inner-city disparities with regard to socioeconomic aspects. Therefore, the main objective was to develop a transparent and comprehensive indicator-based approach which is flexible in terms of data availability and is not tied to a specific case study side. This research proposes two flexible methodological approaches on how to perform socioeconomic vulnerability assessment. Susceptibility, Coping and Adaptation are the main elements of a modular hierarchical structure to capture the societal sphere of vulnerability. The first method is completely based on official census data at block scale. The second method is an expansion and includes data derived from a field survey to add components of risk perception. The proposed methodologies were developed and applied in the city of Genoa (Italy). The results are displayed spatially explicit on maps. Furthermore statistical analysis, to reveal the driving forces which influence vulnerability, was performed. The census-based approach revealed that vulnerability is forced along the river by the inherent susceptibility, as well as the lack of adaptation. The two approaches can be used effectively in gaining different insights. The flexibility of the framework proved to be suitable to the objective of the research. However, the values computed in this research do not claim completeness, and the aim was to provide useful information for stakeholders in decision making process to reduce vulnerability and risk.     

Use of discriminant statistical analysis to determine the origin of an industrial pollution type in the aquiferous system of the area of Berrahal, Algeria

The continuous increase of industrial activities in the area of Berrahal (northeast of Algeria) resulted in an increase of waste disposal, inducing environmental pollution and contamination of groundwater. Available data on groundwater contamination were used to develop a statistical study for contaminated regions and to identify exposure scenarios of pollution. Chemical analysis of the samples shows that water of most wells and drillings is in bad quality or not drinkable, whereas statistical processing of these data by principal component analysis and discriminant factorial analysis suggests that wastewater coming from companies of the industrial park of Berrahal is very rich in organic pollutants (high percentages of BOD₅ and NO₂ ^?) and has high mineralization (has strong concentration in major elements and high electric conductivity); these constitute the main factors of the deterioration of the quality of this water. The considered exposure pathways were drinking water exploited from wells and drillings implanted in this area and its contact with soil (ingestion and dermal contact) that could threaten either humans or wildlife, on site or off site. In addition, groundwater was considered to be a potential risk pathway, especially for the ecosystem of Lake Fetzara and for the aquiferous system.     

地勘单位改革所面临的困境及对宁夏煤田地质局的影响

宁夏煤田地质局作为宁夏回族自治区唯一专业从事煤田地质勘查的单位,由于历史背景、区域特点的差异．与全国各地质勘查单位相比,在改革进程中所面临的问题,除人才缺乏、资金紧张、资产有限等共性问题外．还有许多个体差异,这些因素严重制约着宁夏煤田局做大做强及可持续发展。参照内蒙、广东和陕西三省地勘单位的改革经验,认为地勘单位企业化改革不能等同于地勘行业的改革．地勘单位企业化改革的成败与事企及产权明晰程度有关,长期积累的顽症决定了事转企的改革具有阶段性、差异性。宁夏煤田地质局的事转企改革与可持续发展应在宽松的矿政环境及优惠政策下推进,并创造条件向产业链中的高利润产业拓展。     

资源型城市景观生态风险的时空分异:以乌海市为例

为探究大型露天煤矿开采对西北干旱荒漠区景观生态风险的影响,以及资源型城市转型背景下的时空动态,以资源衰退型的内蒙古自治区乌海市及周边县域为研究区,结合现有景观生态风险评价中的干扰度、脆弱度指标,增加受威胁指数来综合构建资源型城市景观生态风险评价框架。基于乌海市2005—2015年景观类型数据,从时间和空间上分析景观生态风险及其动态。结果显示:(1)2010—2015年景观类型之间转移相较于2005—2010年更剧烈,年变化强度分别为7.43%和3.44%,工矿用地与城市建设用地最活跃,但年增加强度减小。(2)林地、水域和湿地损失度先略增加后大幅度减小,其他土地和草地损失度呈增加趋势,工矿用地先减小后略增加;城市建设用地和工矿用地受威胁指数最大,其余类型的景观受威胁指数均有上升趋势,但其他土地、水域和湿地增加趋势逐渐减慢。(3)2005—2015年景观生态风险指数升高,空间分布总体呈西、中部高而南北低的格局,而不同等级风险区表现为低风险区由边缘向中心转移,而高风险区依托原有高风险区扩展。研究期风险区变化显著的是西部沙地高风险区,矿区东部其他土地因周围分布灌丛和草地,风险始终低于西部其他土地。根据不同风险等级中工矿用地的面积占比情况,将工矿用地占比控制在5%以内可达到控制总体景观生态风险的目的。研究为资源型城市通过合理的景观配置进行生态风险管控提供了依据。     

Earthquake risk to industry in Istanbul and its management

Istanbul is home to 40% of the industrial facilities in Turkey. Thirty percent of the population working in industry lives in the city. Past earthquakes have evidenced that the structural reliability of residential and industrial buildings in the country is questionable. In the Marmara region the earthquake hazard is very high with a 2% annual probability of occurrence of a magnitude 7+ earthquake on the main Marmara fault. These facts make the management of industrial risks imperative for the reduction of socioeconomic losses. In this paper we present a first-order assessment of earthquake damage to the industry in Istanbul and raise issues for better characterization and quantification of industrial losses and management of urban industrial risks. This paper borrows from the project report entitled ‘Earthquake Risk Assessment for Industrial Facilities in Istanbul’. The full report can be found at http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/depremmuh.html under the link ‘Research and Applied Projects’.