基于灰关联分析方法卡尔曼滤波器的精度效能评估

针对综导系统卡尔曼滤波器的特点，深入研究了灰关联分析法在滤波器精度效能评估中的应用。给出卡尔曼滤波器进行灰关联分析的方法和步骤，并对某一类型的滤波器进行精度效能评估。仿真结果表明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

浅谈海监执法船艇装备技术的管理

海监船艇建设是海洋执法工作的基础,也是海监装备体系建设的重点.2010年5月中国海监7002船正式列队,浙江省海监装备建设又迈出了新的步伐,至2010年底浙汀省海监专用执法船艇已经达到20余艘.海监执法船艇数最的逐年增多为海洋监察、海岛巡航、专项行动、维权执法提供了有力的保障,同时也对海监执法船艇装备技术管理工作也提出了新的要求.所谓海监执法船艇装备技术管理,就是对海监执法船艇的机电设备及其器材装备实行科学有效的管理,其根本目的在于科学地掌握和运用船艇使用、腐蚀、老化等规律,正确使用和精心保养船体及机电设备、电子仪器以及消防器材、附属设施等技术装备,使之经常处于良好状态,充分发挥技术性能,防止机械设备老化,有效地延长寿命,保证各项执法任务的完成.     

自航水雷作战效能分析

针对各国自航水雷发展迅速且其作战效能分析日渐受高度重视的情况，在分析自航水雷使用特点的基础上，利用美国工业界武器系统效能咨询委员会提出的作战效能评估模型 ADC，推导了自航水雷武器作战效能评估方法解析式，详细分析了影响自航水雷武器作战效能的主要因素。同时，根据分析影响作战效能的各要素，提出了自航水雷在设计定型试验中应重点考核的关键指标和能力，为后续开展自航水雷设计定型试验提供了新的思路。     

无人船艇在海洋地质调查中的应用及展望

近年来,在海洋地质调查中无人船艇的应用受到越来越多的关注。笔者对无人船艇的基本概念、国内外发展现状、在海洋地质调查中的应用情况等进行了阐述,并分析了无人船艇在海洋地质调查的应用前景和发展趋势。无人船艇搭载地质调查作业系统作为一种新的调查技术和作业方法,已经在海洋地质调查中崭露头角,未来这种智能化的水上作业模式必将有更加广阔的应用前景。     

基于任务-能力的反水雷作战效能评估方法

针对层次分析法中的指标体系及判断矩阵的复杂性和随机性等不足,提出了一种便捷的反水雷装备作战效能评估方法,构建适宜多任务分析的“任务–能力”作战效能评估指标体系。给出了效能评估模型, 并对适宜岛礁反水雷的两型装备进行了作战效能评估。通过专家打分和定性评估结合,可便捷得到符合作战任务需求的效能评估结果,验证了该评估方法的可行性及有效性,对岛礁反水雷装备配置方案具有参考价值。     

基于多阶段贝叶斯网络法的脐带缆全寿命周期可靠性分析

脐带缆是深海油气开发的关键设备之一,主要由钢管单元、电缆单元、光缆单元、护套及铠装单元组成。脐带缆在全寿命周期经过设计制造、储存、安装、在位运行、修复阶段,其每个阶段的可靠性并不是某个常数,而是随时间变化的函数,因此有必要对脐带缆全寿命周期可靠性的变化进行分析。建立某气田水下脐带缆在储存、安装、在位运行阶段的故障树模型,将其转化为多阶段贝叶斯网络模型进行建模分析,基于OREDA手册数据,假设部件寿命服从指数分布,对脐带缆存储、安装、在位运行阶段的可靠性进行分析,得到不同阶段脐带缆可靠性的变化曲线,并与可靠性框图方法进行对比分析。同时,通过引入条件可靠性对该方法进行了优化,分析脐带缆修复后的可靠性变化,以及对脐带缆关键部件进行重要度分析,针对薄弱环节提出改进措施。可靠性分析可为水下脐带缆的安全运行提供技术支持,同时也为海洋结构与设备的全寿命周期可靠性分析提供了一种方法参考。     

水雷作战效能海洋环境影响评估

提出并定性分析了海洋环境对水雷作战效能的影响,提出了构造模糊隶属函数,归一量化描述不同环境参数;采用层次分析法构建水雷作战效能指标参数,建立水雷作战效能与海洋环境参数之间的关联和层次结构,构造环境参数到水雷效能的训练样本;采用机器学习方法对海洋环境影响下水雷作战效能进行评估。通过实例,给出了水雷作战效能量化评估过程。     

运用ADC模型结合层次分析法评估LMAUV系统效能

基于WSEIAC给出的武器系统效能定义和ADC基本模型，针对LM AUV作战使用特点，对可用度、可信度基本函数进行完善，并运用模糊层次分析法和乘法模型得出系统能力向量，建立LM AUV系统效能评估模型；最后，结合算例结果分析，验证该方法评估LM AUV系统效能的有效性。     

海洋沉积物病毒荧光计数法的优化

病毒在海洋生态系统的物质循环和能流中起着重要作用,对其进行有效定量是研究其数量变动和生态功能的前提。现行的海洋沉积物病毒定量主要采用荧光染色计数法,但对技术流程中一些处理方法的定量效能尚待验证。本研究利用不同类型海洋沉积物对荧光计数法进行了效能评估和条件优化。结果表明:将沉积物采样后染色封片直接计数或-20°C保存为最佳,保存3个月后未见丰度降低。而不同类型的沉积物经液氮闪冻后于-80°C冷冻保存后的定量效能不同:沙质沉积物保存1个月后病毒丰度下降1个数量级;泥沙质沉积物保存1个月后丰度降低了约27%,2个月后则下降了60%。对焦磷酸钠最优终浓度实验结果显示,使用3mmol/L终浓度获得的病毒计数定量效能优于目前普遍使用的5mmol/L终浓度。水浴超声分离在常温下的定量效果更优,在水浴中添加冰块导致获取的沙质沉积物中的病毒丰度下降约37%。研究发现:处理中用稀释替代离心不仅可降低沉积物颗粒的干扰,而且定量效能更高;离心处理获取的沙质和泥沙质沉积物中的病毒丰度较稀释处理低约40%。对海洋沉积物中原核生物的定量效能与病毒有相似的结果。据此,本文提出了改进的沉积物病毒荧光计数法的操作流程。     

以作战仿真评估UUV集群作战效能

为了准确地对水下无人航行器(Unmanned Underwater Vehicle,UUV)的集群作战能力进行效能评估,建立效能评估指标体系并将作战仿真结果作为效能评估的数据来源,获得评估结果。通过对特定想定场景下的 UUV 集群作战仿真进行实例化,对作战效能评估与作战仿真流程进行了介绍,得到了符合理论预期的 UUV 集群作战的效能评估结果,证明了方法的有效性,为多装备参与下的体系作战效能评估奠定了基础。     

Numerical and experimental study on hydrodynamic interaction of side-by-side moored multiple vessels

This paper aims to investigate the basic interaction characteristics of side-by-side moored vessels both numerically and experimentally. A higher-order boundary element method (HOBEM) combined with generalized mode approach is applied to analysis of motion and drift force of side-by-side moored multiple vessels (LNG FPSO, LNGC and shuttle tankers). Model tests were carried out for the same floating bodies investigated in the numerical study in regular and irregular waves. Global and local motion responses and drift forces of three vessels are compared with those of calculations. Discussions is highlighted on applicability of numerical method to prediction of sophisticated multi-body interaction problem of which motion behavior is very important to analysis of mooring dynamics of deep sea floating bodies.     

Mercos — A simple Teflon sampler for ultratrace metal analysis in seawater

This paper describes an uncomplicated sampling technique for ultratrace element analysis of coastal and surface seawaters (maximum depth 100 m). The sampler system is very easy to operate. To prevent contamination problems, interchangeable 500-ml Teflon bottles are used as both sampling and storage vessels. The seawater samples are stabilized in situ by preacidifying the sampling bottles. For the determination of mercury in seawater the desired system has been developed: sampling bottle = storage bottle = reaction vessel.     

Design of Mooring System for Oil Storage Vessels

The floating oil storage system has been proposed as a new facility for Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in China. Mooring is one of the key technologies to ensure the safety, reliability, and performance of the oil storage system. This paper describes the concept, analysis, design and reliability of the mooring system. For mooring system design of these oil vessels, analysis is essential of the behavior of the vessel in connection with mooring facilities of nonlinear resilience. A nonlinear mathematical model for analyzing a moored vessel is established and solved. Some results of numerical simulations are presented. Assessment of the safety regarding the mooring system in terms of failure probability is carried out. Another simulation model for calculating the failure probability of the mooring system is proposed. The design parameters that have an influence on the characteristics of the failure probability have been identified. The simulation results show that the mooring system has an annual reliab     

台湾海峡船舶交通管理系统（VTS）的研究

台湾海峡是南来北往的国内、国际海上运输主通道的重要组成部分,本文通过分析台湾海峡自然条件、船舶交通现状及发展、安全监督管理现状,提出建设台湾海峡船舶交通管理系统（ＶＴＳ）的必要性和迫切性。该系统的建设将改善海峡船舶通航条件,保障船舶航行安全,提高航运效益,保护水域环境,同时促进两岸海上直航的顺利发展。     

The economic sustainability of artisanal fisheries: the case of the trawl ban in the Gulf of Castellammare, NW Sicily

Small-scale fisheries and the communities they support are often given the protection of designated fishing zones from which non-artisanal vessels are excluded. This paper looks at one example of this approach, the trawl ban introduced in the Gulf of Castellammare (NW Sicily), focussing on the economic sustainability of the artisanal fishery currently operating within the protected area. The consequences of lifting the trawl ban and how far this would jeopardise the sustainability of the artisanal fishery are explored via an analysis of the financial viability of trammel net vessels under alternative assumptions concerning catch rates. The paper also investigates fishermen's attitudes towards the trawl ban and their predisposition either to remain in the fishery or to quit in the event of the ban being removed.     

Safety level of damaged RoPax ships: Risk modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis

This paper elaborates on results of a recent risk analysis study for RoPax vessels, carried out as part of the activities of the SAFEDOR Integrated Project, targeting possible improvements on safety levels following large scale flooding. The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of accident statistics for the period 1994–2004, through which a high-level risk model (in the form of event trees) is established. This is then used to determine the current safety level of RoPax vessels (in various risk metrics, such as individual risk, potential loss of life and on an F–N curve), reconfirming that even though safety levels are improving, risk is still “high in the ALARP region”. In search of ways to further improve the situation possible risk control options are examined, by performing a sensitivity analysis on the effects of the Attained Index of Subdivision A onto the safety levels and by evaluating their cost-effectiveness.     

Global assessment of the European Union fishing fleet: An update

This paper provides a global analysis of recent trends in the EU fishing fleet. Analysis of the capital productivity, labour rates, and economic benefits of the fleet revealed that considerable replacement of fishermen by better technology and well-equipped vessels occurred between 1990 and 2006. The analysis confirms that the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) has been ineffective in reducing fishing capacity. In addition, the changes in capacity that occurred in this time interval differed among the different sectors of the fleet. Some members of the high sea fishing fleet increased their capacity (range 11–57%), and the deep-sea sector, which has greater tonnage and fishing power, increased its fishing capacity by 34–44%. These results confirm the ineffectiveness of the CFP in reducing overcapacity and illustrate the continuing threat of overcapacity to the long-term sustainability of fishery resources.     

Distributional effects of property rights: Transitions in the Atlantic Herring fishery

A principal challenge in developing any fishery management plan is the allocation of benefits and costs among participants in the fishery. This process is further complicated by imperfect information about future market demand and limited ability to predict the consequences of regulatory change. This paper offers a new approach to policymakers, using econometric analysis to simulate the potential impact of individual tradable quotas (ITQs) in a fishery. We compare the distribution of harvest across participants in the Atlantic Herring fishery under the current open access regime and under a potential ITQ regime, assuming two different levels of future demand. Our results show that production efficiency varies by vessel gear, home-port and relationship with buyers. Some of the predicted consequences of ITQs are: vessels from Massachusetts will gain share relative to those from Maine; trawlers will gain share relative to purse seine vessels; and independent vessels will lose share relative to vessels that are primarily contracted to specific processors or bait companies. These results will help policymakers in developing future management plans for the herring fishery. More generally, this analytical approach can help regulators in any fishery assess the potential impact of alternative policy changes under alternative future demand scenarios.     

坠落物体产生的冲击荷载对海底管线的损伤分析

提出了坠落物体产生的冲击荷载对海底管线的损伤一种简易可行的分析方法。对坠落物体进行分类,然后进行运动形式分析,求得冲击速度,根据动力问题控制方程,使用著名商业软件‘ANSYS/LS-DYNA’,‘LS-DYNA’是世界上最著名的通用显式动力分析程序,对实际的工程算例进行了仿真模拟分析。得到的计算结果与已有经验方程结果是基本一致的。该方法可以和一般风险分析方法一起用作海底管线损伤分析和保护措施校核分析。