The use of Lagrangian trajectories for the identification of the environmentally safe fairways

We propose and test a method for the optimisation of marine fairways to minimise the risk to high-value areas, based on statistical analysis of Lagrangian trajectories of current-driven pollution transport. The offshore areas are quantified according to the probability of pollution released in these areas to reach vulnerable regions. The method contains an eddy-resolving circulation model, a scheme for tracking of Lagrangian trajectories, a technique for the calculation of quantities characterising the potential of different sea areas to supply adverse impacts, and routines to construct the optimum fairway. The gain is expressed in terms of the probability of pollution transport to the nearshore and the associated time (particle age). The use of the optimum fairway would decrease the probability of coastal pollution by 40% or increase the average time of reaching the pollution to the coast from 5.3 to about 9 days in the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea.     

Modelling environmentally friendly fairways using Lagrangian trajectories: a case study for the Gulf of Finland,the Baltic Sea

We address possibilities of minimising environmental risks using statistical features of current-driven propagation of adverse impacts to the coast. The recently introduced method for finding the optimum locations of potentially dangerous activities (Soomere et al. in Proc Estonian Acad Sci 59:156–165, 2010) is expanded towards accounting for the spatial distributions of probabilities and times for reaching the coast for passively advecting particles released in different sea areas. These distributions are calculated using large sets of Lagrangian trajectories found from Eulerian velocity fields provided by the Rossby Centre Ocean Model with a horizontal resolution of 2 nautical miles for 1987–1991. The test area is the Gulf of Finland in the northeastern Baltic Sea. The potential gain using the optimum fairways from the Baltic Proper to the eastern part of the gulf is an up to 44% decrease in the probability of coastal pollution and a similar increase in the average time for reaching the coast. The optimum fairways are mostly located to the north of the gulf axis (by 2–8 km on average) and meander substantially in some sections. The robustness of this approach is quantified as the typical root mean square deviation (6–16 km) between the optimum fairways specified from different criteria. Drastic variations in the width of the ‘corridors’ for almost optimal fairways (2–30 km for the average width of 15 km) signifies that the sensitivity of the results with respect to small changes in the environmental criteria largely varies in different parts of the gulf.     

Impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity on Lagrangian statistics for coastal pollution from a major marine fairway

Lagrangian trajectory methods are often applied as deterministic transport models, where transport is due strictly to advection without taking into account stochastic elements of particle dispersion, which raises questions about validity of the model results. The present work investigates the impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity for a case study of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland, where the pollutants are assumed to originate from a major fairway and are transported to the coast by surface currents. Lagrangian trajectories are calculated using the TRACMASS model from velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre circulation model for 1982 to 2001. Three cases are investigated: (1) trajectory calculation without eddy diffusivity, (2) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a constant diffusion coefficient and (3) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a time- and space-variable diffusion coefficient. It is found that the eddy diffusivity effect increases the spreading rate of initially closely packed trajectories and the number of trajectories that eventually reach the coast. The pattern of most frequently hit coastal sections, the probability of hit to each such section and the time the pollution spends offshore are virtually invariant with respect to inclusion of eddy diffusivity.     

Model-based long-term reconstruction of weather-driven variations in chronic oil pollution along the German North Sea coast

Lagrangian passive tracer transport simulations covering the 46-year period 1958-2003 were utilized to compare the exposures of different parts of the German North Sea coast to ship-related chronic oil pollution. Assuming the spatial distribution of oil releases to be proportional to estimated ship traffic density, detailed drift reconstructions allowed for the reconstruction of wind-induced inter-annual variations in coastal pollution. For the winter months, a statistical relationship between simulated advective transports and prevailing sea surface pressure fields was established via Canonical Correlation Analysis. Wind effects were found to be more important for the northern (Schleswig-Holstein) than for the southern (Lower Saxony) part of the German North Sea coast. For Schleswig-Holstein, simulations showed consensus with beached bird survey data from this region. Proper identification of weather-driven inter-annual and spatial variations in monitoring data helps to avert misjudgments with regard to trends in the general level of chronic oil pollution.     

Eutrophication—The future marine coastal nuisance?

Increased inputs of nutrients to marine coastal areas over the last decades have created a basis for eutrophication of the waters surrounding Sweden. In combination with relatively low water exchange in these vertically stratified and almost non-tidal waters, local and regional effects of increased macro-algal biomass, and decreased oxygen concentrations in bottom water leading to mortalities of benthic animals and decreased fish catches have at times been observed. The effects were first noted in the Baltic, but are now obvious also in Swedish and Danish coastal areas in the Kattegat and the Belt Sea. Similar symptoms have recently also been recorded off the Danish North Sea coast. Other shallow coastal and shelf areas, where stratification occurs, can be regarded as potentially eutrophic risk areas.     

Oil pollution on the Egyptian Red Sea coast

A simple weighing method using carbon tetrachloride as solvent was used to survey the dissolved hydrocarbon and tarball levels in the area of the Egyptian Red Sea coast. The area of investigation covers the coastal area from Ras-Gharib down to the port of Qosier during the period from September 1979 to February 1981. This survey confirms the presence of extensive oil pollution in the area, especially at Ras-Gharib and Ras-Shukhair. Minimum concentrations were obtained at Ghardaqa where no dissolved hydrocarbons were detected (i.e. less than 10 μg l^?1) in 1979–1980 but an increase to 20 μg l^?1 in 1981 was recorded. The high levels of pollution recorded in the southern part of the Gulf of Suez are related to the presence of the offshore oil fields, most of which are located at Ras-Gharib.     

Temperature affects the timing of spawning and migration of North Sea mackerel

Climate change accentuates the need for knowing how temperature impacts the life history and productivity of economically and ecologically important species of fish. We examine the influence of temperature on the timing of the spawning and migrations of North Sea Mackerel using data from larvae CPR surveys, egg surveys and commercial landings from Danish coastal fisheries in the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and inner Danish waters. The three independent sources of data all show that there is a significant relationship between the timing of spawning and sea surface temperature. Large mackerel are shown to arrive at the feeding areas before and leave later than small mackerel and the sequential appearance of mackerel in each of the feeding areas studied supports the anecdotal evidence for an eastward post-spawning migration. Occasional commercial catches taken in winter in the Sound N, Kattegat and Skagerrak together with catches in the first quarter IBTS survey furthermore indicate some overwintering here. Significant relationships between temperature and North Sea mackerel spawning and migration have not been documented before. The results have implications for mackerel resource management and monitoring. An increase in temperature is likely to affect the timing and magnitude of the growth, recruitment and migration of North Sea mackerel with subsequent impacts on its sustainable exploitation.     

Occurrence and concentration of caffeine in Oregon coastal waters

Caffeine, a biologically active drug, is recognized as a contaminant of freshwater and marine systems. We quantified caffeine concentrations in Oregon's coastal ocean to determine whether levels correlated with proximity to caffeine pollution sources. Caffeine was analyzed at 14 coastal locations, stratified between populated areas with sources of caffeine pollution and sparsely populated areas with no major caffeine pollution sources. Caffeine concentrations were measured in major water bodies discharging near sampling locations. Caffeine in seawater ranged from below the reporting limit (8.5 ng/L) to 44.7 ng/L. Caffeine occurrence and concentrations in seawater did not correspond with pollution threats from population density and point and non-point sources, but did correspond with storm event occurrence. Caffeine concentrations in rivers and estuaries draining to the coast ranged from below the reporting limit to 152.2 ng/L. This study establishes the occurrence of caffeine in Oregon's coastal waters, yet relative importance of sources, seasonal variability, and processes affecting caffeine transport into the coastal ocean require further research.     

Variations in the response of the dune coast of northern France to major storms as a function of available beach sediment volume

A series of airborne topographic LiDAR data were obtained from May 2008 to January 2014 over two coastal sites of northern France (Bay of Wissant and east of Dunkirk). These data were used with wind and tide gauge measurements to assess the impacts of storms on beaches and coastal dunes, and particularly of the series of major storms that hit western Europe during the fall and early winter of 2013. Our results show a high variability in shoreline response from one site to the other, but also within each coastal site. Coastal dune erosion and shoreline retreat occurred at both sites, particularly on the coast of the Bay of Wissant where shoreline retreat up to about 40 m was measured. However, stability or even shoreline advance were also observed despite the occurrence of an extreme water level with a return period >100 years during the storm Xaver in early December 2013. Comparison of shoreline change with variations of coastal dune and upper beach volumes revealed only weak relationships. Our results nevertheless showed that shoreline behavior seems to strongly depend on the initial sediment volume on the upper beach before the occurrence of the storms. According to our measurements, an upper beach volume of about 30 m³ m^?1 between the dune toe and the mean high water level is sufficient at these sites to protect the coastal dunes from storm waves associated with high water levels with return periods >10 years. The identification of such thresholds in terms of upper beach width or sediment volume may represent valuable information for improving the management of shoreline change by providing an estimate of the minimum quantity of sand on the upper beach necessary to ensure shoreline stability in this region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Designing a monitoring network for detecting groundwater pollution with stochastic simulation and a cost model

A method is presented to design monitoring networks for detecting groundwater pollution at industrial sites. The goal is to detect the pollution at some distance from the site’s boundary so that it can be cleaned up or hydrologically contained before contaminating groundwater outside the site. It is assumed that pollution may occur anywhere on the site, that transport is by advection only and that no retardation and chemical reactions take place. However, the approach can be easily extended to include designated (and uncertain) source areas, dispersion and reactive transport. The method starts from the premise that it is impossible to detect 100% of all the contaminant plumes with reasonable costs and therefore seeks a balance between the risk of pollution and network density. The design approach takes account of uncertainty in the flow field by simulating realisations of conductivity, groundwater head and associated flow fields, using geostatistical simulation and a groundwater flow model. The realisations are conditioned to conductivity and head observations that may already be present on the site. The result is an ensemble of flow fields that is further analysed using a particle track program. From this the probability of missing a contaminant plume originating anywhere on the terrain can be estimated for a given network. From this probability follows the risk, i.e. the expected costs of an undetected pollution. The total costs of the monitoring strategy are calculated by adding the risk of pollution to the costs of installing and maintaining the monitoring wells and the routinely performed chemical analyses. By repeating this procedure for networks of varying well numbers, the best network is chosen as the one that minimises total cost. The method is illustrated with a simulated example showing the added worth of exploratory wells for characterising hydraulic conductivity of a site.     

Multimoment convecting flux tube model of the polar wind system with return current and microprocesses

Multimoment fluid simulation frameworks, which effectively account for anomalous transport due to microprocesses, combine best features of small-scale kinetic and global-scale MHD models. The most practical models of this type, 1D flux tube models, have been successfully used for realistic simulations of space plasmas including polar wind and magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling processes characterized by a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Our earlier flux tube models with field-aligned current and microprocesses have been formulated for spatially stationary flux tubes. However, horizontal convection due to electric fields is an important aspect of the high-latitude ionosphere–polar wind system and typical time scales of the polar wind upflow are comparable to the transit time across the polar cap. To take into account this important feature we have added flux tube convection to our earlier model. Using typical convecting flux tube that starts outside auroral oval, then enters and leaves downward current region, it has been shown that anomalous transport effects due to current-driven microinstabilities significantly alter dynamics of several plasma moments and should be taken into account for an accurate interpretation and prediction of the observed data. Future applications of our new model have also been discussed.     

Eddy properties in the Southern California Current System

The California Current System (CCS) is an eastern boundary upwelling system characterized by strong eddies that are often generated at the coast. These eddies contribute to intense, long-distance cross-shelf transport of upwelled water with enhanced biological activity. However, the mechanisms of formation of such coastal eddies, and more importantly their capacity to trap and transport tracers, are poorly understood. Their unpredictability and strong dynamics leave us with an incomplete picture of the physical and biological processes at work, their effects on coastal export, lateral water exchange among eddies and their surrounding waters, and how long and how far these eddies remain coherent structures. Focusing our analysis on the southern part of the CCS, we find a predominance of cyclonic eddies, with a 25-km radius and a SSH amplitude of 6 cm. They are formed near shore and travel slightly northwest offshore for ~?190 days at ~?2 km day^?1. We then study one particular, representative cyclonic eddy using a combined Lagrangian and Eulerian numerical approach to characterize its kinematics. Formed near shore, this eddy trapped a core made up of ~?67% California Current waters and ~?33% California Undercurrent waters. This core was surrounded by other waters while the eddy detached from the coast, leaving the oldest waters at the eddy’s core and the younger waters toward the edge. The eddy traveled several months as a coherent structure, with only limited lateral exchange within the eddy.     

Rivers as a source of marine litter – A study from the SE Pacific

Composition and abundance of persistent buoyant litter (plastics, polystyrene and manufactured wood) were investigated at riversides and on adjacent coastal beaches of four rivers flowing into the SE Pacific Ocean. Persistent buoyant litter made up the main share of litter at riversides (36–82%) and on coastal beaches near the river mouths (67–86%). The characteristic litter composition of each river is attributable to human influences along its course. Riverine litter items were deposited to both sides of the river mouths on coastal beaches, and their abundance generally declined with distance from the river mouth. However, maximum litter accumulations were often found on beaches north of the river mouth, suggesting a long-term influence of the prevailing equatorward low-level jet along the Chilean coast. The results confirm that riverine transport has an important impact on litter abundances on coastal beaches.     

The extreme 2013/2014 winter storms: hydrodynamic forcing and coastal response along the southwest coast of England

The southwest coast of England was subjected to an unusually energetic sequence of Atlantic storms during the 2013/2014 winter, with the 8‐week period from mid‐December to mid‐February representing the most energetic period since at least 1953. A regional analysis of the hydrodynamic forcing and morphological response of these storms along the SW coast of England highlighted the importance of both storm‐ and site‐specific conditions. The key factor that controls the Atlantic storm wave conditions along the south coast of southwest England is the storm track. Energetic inshore wave conditions along this coast require a relatively southward storm track which enables offshore waves to propagate up the English Channel relatively unimpeded. The timing of the storm in relation to the tidal stage is also important, and coastal impacts along the macro‐tidal southwest coast of England are maximised when the peak storm waves coincide with spring high tide. The role of storm surge is limited and rarely exceeds 1 m. The geomorphic storm response along the southwest coast of England displayed considerable spatial variability; this is mainly attributed to the embayed nature of the coastline and the associated variability in coastal orientation. On west‐facing beaches typical of the north coast, the westerly Atlantic storm waves approached the coastline shore‐parallel, and the prevailing storm response was offshore sediment transport. Many of these north coast beaches experienced extensive beach and dune erosion, and some of the beaches were completely stripped of sediment, exposing a rocky shore platform. On the south coast, the westerly Atlantic storm waves refract and diffract to become southerly inshore storm waves and for the southeast‐facing beaches this results in large incident wave angles and strong eastward littoral drift. Many south coast beaches exhibited rotation, with the western part of the beaches eroding and the eastern part accreting. © 2015 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Kenya

The Kenya coast is bathed by the northward-flowing warm waters of the East Africa Coastal Current, located between latitudes 1 and 5° S. With a narrow continental shelf, the coastal marine environments are dominated by coral reefs, seagrass beds and mangroves, with large expanses of sandy substrates where river inputs from Kenya's two largest rivers, the Tana and Athi rivers, prevent the growth of coral reefs. The northern part of the coast is seasonally influenced by upwelling waters of the Somali Current, resulting in lower water temperatures for part of the year. The coast is made up of raised Pleistocene reefs on coastal plains and hills of sedimentary origin, which support native habitats dominated by scrub bush and remnant pockets of the forests that used to cover East Africa and the Congo basin. The marine environment is characterized by warm tropical conditions varying at the surface between 25°C and 31°C during the year, stable salinity regimes, and moderately high nutrient levels from terrestrial runoff and groundwater. The semi-diurnal tidal regime varies from 1.5 to 4 m amplitude from neap to spring tides, creating extensive intertidal platform and rocky-shore communities exposed twice-daily during low tides. Fringing reef crests dominate the whole southern coast and parts of the northern coast towards Somalia, forming a natural barrier to the wave energy from the ocean. Coral reefs form the dominant ecosystem along the majority of the Kenya coast, creating habitats for seagrasses and mangroves in the lagoons and creeks protected by the reef crests. Kenya's marine environment faces a number of threats from the growing coastal human population estimated at just under three million in 2000. Extraction of fish and other resources from the narrow continental shelf, coral reef and mangrove ecosystems increases each year with inadequate monitoring and management structures to protect the resource bases. Coastal development in urban and tourist centers proceeds with little regard for environmental and social impacts. With a faltering economy, industrial development in Mombasa proceeds with few checks on pollution and other impacts. In 1998 Kenya's coral reefs suffered 50–80% mortality from the El Niño-related coral bleaching event that affected the entire Indian Ocean. The institutional, human resource and legal infrastructure for managing the coastal environment has in the past been low, however these are rapidly improving with the revitalization of national institutions and the passing in 1999 of an Environment Act. Marine Protected Areas are the key tool currently used in management of marine ecosystems, and focus principally on coral reefs and biodiversity protection. New initiatives are underway to improve application of fisheries regulations, and to use Integrated Coastal Area Management (ICAM) as a framework for protecting marine and coastal environments.     

Overview of Recent Coastal Tectonic Deformation in the Mexican Subduction Zone

Holocene and Pleistocene tectonic deformation of the coast in the Mexico subudction margin is recorded by geomorphic and stratigraphic markers. We document the spatial and temporal variability of active deformation on the coastal Mexican subduction margin. Pleistocene uplift rates are estimated using wave-cut platforms at ca. 0.7?C0.9?m/ka on the Jalisco block coast, Rivera-North America tectonic plate boundary. We examine reported measurements from marine notches and shoreline angle elevations in conjunction with their radiocarbon ages that indicate surface uplift rates increasing during the Holocene up to ca. 3?±?0.5?m/ka. In contrast, steady rates of uplift (ca. 0.5?C1.0?m/ka) in the Pleistocene and Holocene characterize the Michoacan coastal sector, south of El Gordo graben and north of the Orozco Fracture Zone (OFZ), incorporated within the Cocos-North America plate boundary. Significantly higher rates of surface uplift (ca. 7?m/ka) across the OFZ subduction may reflect the roughness of subducting plate. Absence of preserved marine terraces on the coastal sector across El Gordo graben likely reflects slow uplift or coastal subsidence. Stratigraphic markers and their radiocarbon ages show late Holocene (ca. last 6?ka bp) coastal subsidence on the Guerrero gap sector in agreement with a landscape barren of marine terraces and with archeological evidence of coastal subsidence. Temporal and spatial variability in recent deformation rates on the Mexican Pacific coast may be due to differences in tectonic regimes and to localized processes related to subduction, such as crustal faults, subduction erosion and underplating of subducted materials under the southern Mexico continental margin.     

Water isotope characteristics of a flood: Brisbane River,Australia

Flooding associated with tropical storms can cause extreme perturbations in riverine and coastal ecosystems. Measuring isotope variability of tropical storm events can help investigate the impacts of flooding. We measured the water isotope composition (δD and δ¹⁸O) of rain and associated floodwater collected during two storms and subsequent major and minor flooding events in the subtropical coast of eastern Australia. Compared with baseline regional rainfall isotope values of ?15.0 ± 1.9‰ for δD and ?3.3 ± 0.2‰ for δ¹⁸O, floodwater had lower values with ?33.8 ± 2.5‰ δD and ?5.1 ± 0.4‰ δ¹⁸O for the major flood and ?29.4 ± 1.0‰ δD and ?4.6 ± 0.1‰ δ¹⁸O for the minor flood. The low isotope composition of the floodwater was associated with the transport of large quantities of suspended sediments, with sediment loads 30 to 70 times larger than during base flow conditions. Floods carried up to 35% of the annual phosphorus and up to 208% of the currently calculated average annual nitrogen load of the Brisbane River. The dramatic changes caused by a rapid increase in discharge from 2 to 2015 m³ s^?1 over 2 days in the major flood would have major consequences in riverine and coastal ecosystems of the region. These changes could potentially be traced using the isotope composition of the floodwaters. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in chronic marine oil pollution in Danish waters assessed using 22 years of beached bird surveys

Beached bird surveys provide an important tool for monitoring the level of oil pollution at sea, which is the most significant observable cause of death for a large number of waterbird species and pose a serious threat to wintering seabird populations. Linear regression analyses of oil rates from the Danish 22 year dataset show a decline in the oil pollution level in offshore areas of the eastern North Sea and Skagerrak and in near-shore parts of the Kattegat; but a worsening in the offshore areas of the Kattegat. These results raise concern for species such as common scoter, velvet scoter, eider and razorbill, for which the Kattegat serves as a globally important wintering area. It is recommended that surveillance for oil spills is intensified in inner Danish waters, and that action is taken to make responses towards offenders faster, and penalties for oil seepage higher.     

Hindcast of breaking waves and its impact at an island sheltered coast,Karwar

Variability in the characteristics of depth-induced wave breakers along a non-uniform coastal topography and its impact on the morpho-sedimentary processes is examined at the island sheltered wave-dominated micro-tidal coast, Karwar, west coast of India. Waves are simulated using the coupled wind wave model, SWAN nested in WAVEWATCH III, forced by the reanalysis winds from different sources (NCEP/NCAR, ECMWF, and NCEP/CFSR). Impact of the wave breakers is evaluated through mean longshore current and sediment transport for various wave energy conditions across different coastal morphology. Study revealed that the NCEP/CFSR wind is comparatively reasonable in simulation of nearshore waves using the SWAN model nested by 2D wave spectra generated from WAVEWATCH III. The Galvin formula for estimating mean longshore current using the crest wave period and the Kamphuis approximation for longshore sediment transport is observed realistically at the sheltered coastal environment while the coast interacts with spilling and plunging breakers.     

Regional coupled ocean–atmosphere downscaling in the Southeast Pacific: impacts on upwelling, mesoscale air–sea fluxes, and ocean eddies

Ocean–atmosphere coupling in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) of the Southeast Pacific is studied using the Scripps Coupled Ocean–atmosphere Regional (SCOAR) model, which is used to downscale the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis-2 (RA2) product for the period 2000–2007 at 20-km resolution. An interactive 2-D spatial smoother within the sea-surface temperature (SST)–flux coupler is invoked in a separate run to isolate the impact of the mesoscale (～50–200 km, in the oceanic sense) SST field felt by the atmosphere in the fully coupled run. For the HCS, SCOAR produces seasonal wind stress and wind stress curl patterns that agree better with QuikSCAT winds than those from RA2. The SCOAR downscaled wind stress distribution has substantially different impacts on the magnitude and structure of wind-driven upwelling processes along the coast compared to RA2. Along coastal locations such as Arica and Taltal, SCOAR and RA2 produce seasonally opposite signs in the total wind-driven upwelling transport. At San Juan, SCOAR shows that upwelling is mainly due to coastal Ekman upwelling transport, while in RA2 upwelling is mostly attributed to Ekman pumping. Fully coupled SCOAR shows significant SST–wind stress coupling during fall and winter, while smoothed SCOAR shows insignificant coupling throughout, indicating the important role of ocean mesoscale eddies on air–sea coupling in HCS. Coupling between SST, wind speed, and latent heat flux is incoherent in large-scale coupling and full coupling mode. In contrast, coupling between these three variables is clearly identified for oceanic mesoscales, which suggests that mesoscale SST affects latent heat directly through the bulk formulation, as well as indirectly through stability changes on the overlying atmosphere, which affects surface wind speeds. The SST–wind stress and SST–heat-flux couplings, however, fail to produce a strong change in the ocean eddy statistics. No rectified effects of ocean–atmosphere coupling were identified for either the atmospheric or oceanic mean conditions, suggesting that mesoscale coupling is too weak in this region to strongly alter the basic climate state.