三种基于均生函数的统计模型在厄尔尼诺预测中的应用

为了探究厄尔尼诺的预测方法,提高其预报准确度与预报时效,本文基于均生函数的基本原理,在普通均生函数模型中分别加入气候序列的本征模函数和预报因子变量,构建了基于EEMD(Ensemble EmpiricalModeDecomposition)的均生函数模型和多变量均生函数模型;并应用三种方案对NINO3区海温指数进行了预报试验。结果表明,两种改进模型对厄尔尼诺的预报效果好于普通均生函数模型,是提高预报准确度的有效手段;同时,利用统计的预报模型,可以在一定程度上有效延长厄尔尼诺的预报时效,具有一定实践意义。     

基于多项式逼近的固定式平台响应谱理论研究

依据波浪力成因和作用效果的不同,将波浪力分为两部分(Morisson 波浪力和 Inundation波浪力)讨论.对于两种波浪力中的非线性拖曳力项,采用高次多项式逼近,结合高斯型统计量高阶矩计算原理、相关函数、变换法和单输入多输出系统的互谱关系,预测海流海浪联合作用下的海洋平台响应谱的理论形式,求得总波浪力谱以及平台响应谱.在Inundation模态力的相关函数推导过程中,考虑海流影响时,惯性力项与拖曳力项的相关函数总和为0,这一结果与不考虑海流影响时的结果相同.     

基于半参数回归的DDM内插方法

提出了一种基于半参数回归的数字水深模型(DDM)内插方法。将原始水深数据误差和内插函数的逼近误差分别视作数字水深模型的偶然误差和系统误差部分,构建DDM内插的半参数回归模型;基于距离法与L曲线法,分别确定正规化矩阵R与平滑因子α;采用按方位取点的加权平均法,估计内插函数在任意节点处的逼近误差。实验结果表明:所提方法提高了DDM的构建质量;海底地形复杂程度越大,所提方法对DDM构建质量的提高程度越大。     

状态空间模型在振荡浮子式液压系统波能吸收装置中应用

状态空间模型是研究海洋波浪能转换系统相互作用的一种有效的数学模型,应用该模型的关键之一是如何根据试验或计算的脉冲响应函数来高效地确定状态空间模型中的矩阵参数.结合最速降线法、最小二乘法和精密积分法来求矩阵参数,分别采用了两种不同的方法模拟出了单浮体在波能吸收装置作用下的位移、速度和加速度,并计算出在非线性阻尼情况下的波能装置吸收功率,得出了装置的最优化设计参数.     

功率谱密度函数的构建及在重力场元计算中的应用

应用输入输出法逼近局部重力场的关键在于构建有效反映局部重力场特征的功率谱密度函数模型、利用"间接法",基于Moritz协方差模型、Tscherning/Rapp协方差模型和Moritz两分量模型分别构建对应的功率谱密度函数模型,并采用非线性最小二乘法在EGM2008模型的基础上拟合了模型系数。拟合结果表明:在2倍相关长度的相关距离内,Moritz两分量模型求得的理论协方差值与经验协方差值的符合度最好。设计了以EGM2008模型重力异常为基础数据,计算大地水准面高的仿真实验。结果表明:三种模型中,Moritz两分量模型的计算结果精度最高,同传统Stokes方法的计算结果精度相当,与拟合的理论协方差曲线图所反映的结果一致。     

基于CQG2000的移去恢复法求解高程异常

充分利用CQG2000的研究成果,结合GPS水准数据,采用移去恢复(RCR)法求解未知点高程异常比用单纯的GPS水准拟合法,精度有明显改善。给出了具体计算步骤,并将拟合模型分为函数模型和随机模型进行说明,最后结合算例说明了此方法的可行性。     

雷达高度计海况偏差估计非参数模型研究

本文基于Jason-2高度计,采用核函数估计（NW）和局部线性回归估计(LLR)两种非参数估计方法,选用高斯(Gaussian)核函数和球谐(Epanechnikov)核函数及固定带宽和局部可调带宽。对不同组合形式的模型进行优选,确定LLR估计方法的Epanechnikov核函数、局部可调带宽为最优非参数模型。通过对最优非参数模型和参数模型结果进行对比分析表明,非参数模型在北高纬度区域表现更优,而在中低纬度及南纬区域参数模型不失优势。将非参数模型应用于我国HY-2A高度计,得到与以上同样的结论。     

半导体器件数值模拟的新方法及理论分析

试建立一种半导体器件数值模拟的新方法并给出理论分析。提出混合元逼近位势方程,以提高电场强度的计算精度。采用Ｌａｐｌａｃｅ修正的向前差分和特征线法对载流子浓度方程施行时间离散近似,并在具有再生核的函数空间中求解。利用再生核函数,得到可显式计算且绝对稳定的计算格式。文中给出近似解的最优阶误差估计。     

分布式节点海洋环境三维布局优化方法及仿真研究

现有的分布式定位系统节点布局研究主要集中在 2 个方面：1)基于理论推导,采取最佳战略布局一些特殊点,推导模型十分复杂,不具有普遍的实用性;2)按照一定的原则,将节点布局问题转化为最优化问题,借助智能优化算法寻优迭代逼近最佳布站策略,该方法具有普遍适用性。可采用智能优化算法进行计算。通过使用 BELLHOP 模型对水声信道进行仿真研究,模拟海洋环境,基于 TOA 算法进行加入海洋声线模型的自适应遗传算法节点最优布局仿真研究。由于声线弯曲造成的信号传递函数的改变,引起了信噪比的改变,最终导致了待优化函数系统误差的 CRLB 的改变,使此方法适用于分布式节点海洋环境优化布局。     

对虾配合饵料科学配方的优化方法

本文讨论对虾配合饵料科学配方优化模型方法的建立及具体运用。 l 配方设计的数学模型 饵料配方设计的数学模型主要根据线性规划原理和方法建立,它研究的对象实际上是一个最优化问题,就是求某一目标函数在一定约束条件下的最小值(或最大值)。其数学特征是目标函数和约束条件均为线性函数,即约束条件和目标函数都可以用线性不等式组来表示。因此,线性规划的数学模型的标准形式在约束为:     

A hybrid forecasting model for depth-averaged current velocities of underwater gliders

In this paper, we propose a hybrid forecasting model to improve the forecasting accuracy for depth-averaged current velocities (DACVs) of underwater gliders. The hybrid model is based on a discrete wavelet transform (DWT), a deep belief network (DBN), and a least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). The original DACV series are first decomposed into several high- and one low-frequency subseries by DWT. Then, DBN is used for high-frequency component forecasting, and the LSSVM model is adopted for low-frequency subseries. The effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by two groups of DACV data from sea trials in the South China Sea. Based on four general error criteria, the forecast performance of the proposed model is demonstrated. The comparison models include some well-recognized single models and some related hybrid models. The performance of the proposed model outperformed those of the other methods indicated above.     

基于分段自适应算法的浅海水深遥感反演融合模型研究

对于水深光学遥感反演研究，虽然已经建立了大量的模型方法，然而对于不同水深段，同一模型的反演精度各异，且采用单一模型进行水深反演得到的整体反演精度未必最佳。为了提高水深光学遥感反演的整体精度，本文提出一种分段自适应水深反演融合模型，模型在误差估计的基础上，结合了对数线性模型、对数转换比值模型、改进的对数转换比值模型与多调节因子模型的优势。利用模型在西沙群岛东岛开展了水深遥感反演实验，从整体反演精度、不同水深段反演精度及逐米水深精度等角度进行分析，结果表明，分段自适应融合模型的整体精度最高，平均绝对误差为1.09 m，平均相对误差达到16.06%；分水深段来看，分段自适应融合模型在多数不同水深段内的反演效果均最好；从逐米精度来看，分段自适应融合模型在大部分逐米水深段的反演能力均优于其他模型。     

GPS数据处理中实时随机模型的估计方法

为了满足在复杂观测条件下GPS基线解算的精度要求,研究了一种新的随机模型。与基于卫星高度角的随机模型难以定义出观测值之间的空间相关性不同,该随机模型核心是基于最小二乘估计得到的残差序列,通过移动窗口,利用前几个历元的残差序列,对当前历元观测值的方差-协方差阵进行实时估计。通过实例分析,将其与传统的随机模型的计算结果进行对比,验证了该实时随机模型在改善基线解算精度方面的有效性。     

Comparison of existing poroelastic models for wave damping in a porous seabed

Mechanism of wave–seabed interaction has been extensively studied by coastal geotechnical engineers in recent years. Numerous poro-elastic models have been proposed to investigate the mechanism of wave propagation on a seabed in the past. The existing poro-elastic models include drained model, consolidation model, Coulomb-damping model, and full dynamic model. However, to date, the difference between the existing models is unclear. In this paper, the fully dynamic poro-elastic model for the wave–seabed interaction will be derived first. Then, the existing models will be reduced from the proposed fully dynamic model. Based on the numerical comparisons, the applicable range of each model is also clarified for the engineering practice.     

一种计算台风风场的方法

揭示Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡风场模式和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ风场模式之间的联系，并设计了一种台风风场分布模式，它的风速分布曲线落在Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ和Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡两个风场模式的风速分布曲线之间，具有一个既优于Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ又优于Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡的风速衰减速率，因此它同时克服了Ｒａｎｋｉｎｅ涡模式计算风速偏小和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式计算风速偏大的缺点，以一种比较合理的变化趋势向远方衰减，成为一个比较切合实际的台风风场分布模式。同时，文中提出的移行台风风场计算方法对宫崎正卫、上野武夫和Ｊｅｌｅｓｎｉａｎｓｋｉ模式都有一定的改进。     

A comparison of two global ocean-ice coupled models with different horizontal resolutions

A global eddy-permitting ocean-ice coupled model with a horizontal resolution of 0.25 by 0.25 is established on the basis of Modular Ocean Model version 4 (MOM4) and Sea Ice Simulator (SIS). Simulation results are compared with those of an intermediate resolution ocean-ice coupled model with a horizontal resolution of about 1 by 1 . The results show that the simulated ocean temperature, ocean current and sea ice concentration from the eddy-permitting model are better than those from the intermediate resolution model. However, both the two models have the common problem of ocean general circulation models (OGCMs) that the majority of the simulated summer sea surface temperature (SST) is too warm while the majority of the simulated subsurface summer temperature is too cold. Further numerical experiments show that this problem can be alleviated by incorporating the non-breaking surface wave-induced vertical mixing into the vertical mixing scheme for both eddy-permitting and intermediate resolution models.     

数据稀缺生态系统中多种类质量谱模型的构建

多种类生态模型已经被广泛应用于渔业活动影响应预测和管理措施效果评估。质量谱模型是一种基于生理过程构建的生态模型,该模型为描述鱼类群落在个体摄食变异和随个体发生的生态位迁移提供了一个可行的方法。尽管生态模型在增进生态系统认识上具有重要意义,其应用在数据稀缺的渔业中受到很大限制。作为实践基于生态系统渔业管理(EBFM)的第一步,本研究构建了海州湾鱼类群落的质量谱模型。本研究详述了数据收集和模型参数化的过程,以促进该模型在数据稀缺的生态系统中未来的应用。作为一个范例,研究展示了不同捕捞努力量对生态系统的影响,并采用一套生态指标监测其动态。群落生物量、多样性指数、W指数,大鱼指数(LFI),平均体重和群落质量谱斜率对捕捞压力的响应呈非线性,最大的捕捞强度并非总是对鱼类群落产生最强的影响。本文强调了构建谱模型在生态研究中的的价值和可行性,并讨论了模型的局限性和改进的可能。本研究旨在促进质量谱模型的广泛应用以更好地支持基于生态系统的渔业管理。     

Hybrid frequency–time domain models for dynamic response analysis of marine structures

Time-domain models of marine structures based on frequency domain data are usually built upon the Cummins equation. This type of model is a vector integro-differential equation which involves convolution terms. These convolution terms are not convenient for analysis and design of motion control systems. In addition, these models are not efficient with respect to simulation time, and ease of implementation in standard simulation packages. For these reasons, different methods have been proposed in the literature as approximate alternative representations of the convolutions. Because the convolution is a linear operation, different approaches can be followed to obtain an approximately equivalent linear system in the form of either transfer function or state-space models. This process involves the use of system identification, and several options are available depending on how the identification problem is posed. This raises the question whether one method is better than the others. This paper therefore has three objectives. The first objective is to revisit some of the methods for replacing the convolutions, which have been reported in different areas of analysis of marine systems: hydrodynamics, wave energy conversion, and motion control systems. The second objective is to compare the different methods in terms of complexity and performance. For this purpose, a model for the response in the vertical plane of a modern containership is considered. The third objective is to describe the implementation of the resulting model in the standard simulation environment Matlab/Simulink.     

一种新的模式倾向误差估计算法及其在ENSO模拟中的应用

气候模式是我们理解、模拟和预报气候演变的重要工具。然而即使是目前最先进的耦合模式,其模拟和预报与大气/海洋的真实状态相比,仍存在较大偏差,这是由于在模式的倾向方程中不可避免地存在系统性的误差(倾向误差)。因此,减小模式倾向误差对改进模式的模拟和预报效果具有重要意义。该研究首先发展了一种新的计算模式倾向误差的估计算法——基于局地集合变换卡尔曼滤波器(local ensemble transform kalman filter, LETKF)同化技术的倾向误差估计算法。在此基础上,将新发展的算法应用到Zebiak-Cane (ZC)模式,通过同化海表面温度异常(sea surface temperature anomaly, SSTA)数据,估计随时空变化的倾向误差,并使用计算得到的倾向误差订正模式,进行积分模拟。结果表明: (1)倾向误差和ZC模式的模拟偏差具有高度相关性; (2)订正后的模式改善了对厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO)的一些重要特征的模拟。这说明新发展的模式倾向误差估计算法十分有效且在ENSO模拟中具有较好的应用价值,此外,这种新的模式倾向误差估计算法,计算高效简便,可便捷地应用于各模式中,利于推广。     

Deterministic non-linear wave prediction using probe data

The accurate prediction of non-linear sea states represents a great challenge, with a number of applications in oceanography, marine engineering, security of people and marine transportation, etc. In this paper, we report on the development of two efficient deterministic prediction models for 2D irregular wave-fields. These models are based on the exploitation of wave elevation time series given by one or more probes and on the use of two different numerical models for the wave-fields simulation. Two effective data assimilation processes are developed to improve the wave-field estimates obtained from the study of one or several probe signals, so that we obtain proper initial conditions for the forecast. The assimilation schemes have been validated on the reconstruction of model-generated observations and accurate predictions of the corresponding synthetic wave-fields evolution have been obtained.