2000—2019年中国重大生态工程生态效益遥感评估

本文提出了重大生态工程实施生态效益评估理论框架,在选取生态系统宏观结构、生态系统质量和生态系统服务3大类、6个一级指标和9个二级指标的基础上,利用地面和遥感数据,结合模型模拟,生成了2000—2019年长时间序列评估指标参数数据集,定量评估了中国重大生态工程实施20年后的生态效益。结果表明：生态恢复程度中等、较高和高的区域面积分别占全国国土面积的24.1%、11.9%和1.7%,生态工程实施数量越多的地区,生态恢复程度越高,生态恢复程度较高和高的区域主要集中在黄土高原、北方农牧交错带、东北平原、川滇黔渝湘结合部等地区;气候因素和生态工程对植被净初级生产力变化的贡献率分别为85.4%和14.6%,对水蚀模数变化的贡献率分别为69.5%和30.5%;中国植被覆盖度有20%的恢复潜力,森林植被覆盖度恢复潜力为6.4%,草地植被覆盖度恢复潜力为23%;气候条件是生态恢复的重要限制因素,生态恢复程度较高和高的区域主要分布在年均温大于0 ℃和年降水量大于300 mm的地区。因此,重大生态工程的部署,应充分考虑气候条件的限制性,避免实施单一生态工程或单一生态恢复措施,充分发挥生态工程组合措施的综合效应,提高生态投入资金的最大效益。     

基于土地利用的生态系统服务价值当量修订方法——以渤海湾沿岸为例

谢高地等的生态服务功能当量研究成果, 在国内被广为应用。鉴于当前许多研究中直接引用而忽视区域差异的现象, 本文旨在探索一套精度较高的基于当量的生态系统服务功能评价方法, 进而应用于今后大、中尺度多时间序列的评价。修订方法可总结为: (1)以农田为基准的地区修订, 采用研究区农田粮食单位面积产量与全国农田粮食单位面积产量的比值作为地区修订系数, 将“中国生态系统单位面积生态服务价值当量表”修订为“研究区生态系统单位面积生态服务价值当量表”,考虑到森林生态系统的复杂性, 用生物量对森林生态系统的服务价值作进一步的修订;(2)基于植被覆盖度的单元格修订, 采用NDVI数据, 计算植被覆盖度系数, 对农田、林地、草地生态系统进行逐单元格修订。实现生态服务功能评价从全国-地区-单元格逐级降尺度的修订, 以保证生态服务价值当量在不同尺度下的可比性, 亦能充分显示出生态服务价值的空间异质性。最后以渤海湾沿岸为例, 采用该方法对研究区生态服务功能及其变化进行了相对评估, 并采用敏感性指数方法进行了检验。本方法较适用于生态服务功能的时间序列对比分析, 可以检测出区域内部生态服务功能的强度差异和时空变化。     

塔里木河干流区土地利用与生态系统服务价值的变化

根据2005—2010年土地利用数据分析了生态环境脆弱和受人类活动影响强烈的塔里木河干流地区土地利用数量和结构变化特点,修正了谢高地等提出的中国陆地生态系统服务价值系数,结合敏感度分析,探讨了生态服务价值对土地利用变化的响应。结果表明:（1）研究区土地利用类型以草地和其他为主,覆盖率约为65％;2010年天然植被比2005年减少4.37×104 hm2,占总面积的1.04%;耕地面积增加最多,增加幅度为21.70%;高覆盖度草地土地利用类型减少最多,为5.95%;农田面积的不断扩大以林地和草地面积减少为代价。（2）研究区生态系统的服务价值以土壤形成与保护、生物多样性保护和废物处理等功能为主;森林和水体的生态服务价值贡献率占整个系统的80%以上,其次是草地;塔里木河干流2005—2010年土地利用的变化导致生态服务功能的结构发生变化。（3）研究区2005年和2010年总生态服务功能价值分别为137.76×108元和137.98×108元,波动较小;研究区由上游至下游生态系统服务价值存着的明显的由高到低的梯度分布规律,生态环境逐渐退化;生态服务价值相对于生态价值系数缺乏弹性的,说明本研究结果可信,可为区域土地利用效益评价及土地利用规划提供借鉴。     

近20 a新疆南部植被覆盖度时空特征及对气候因素的响应——以塔什库尔干塔吉克自治县为例

植被覆盖度是反映生态环境质量的评价指标,掌握植被覆盖度的变化有助于实现生态文明建设与区域农牧业规划及生态环境保护。基于2001—2020年归一化植被指数（Normalization difference vegetation index,NDVI）,以耕地、林地、草地植被类型为研究对象,采用混合像元二分模型计算植被覆盖度,应用空间稳定性分析、Sen+Mann-Kendall空间趋势分析、线性回归等方法,分析塔什库尔干塔吉克自治县植被覆盖度的时空特征;同时,结合气温、降水量数据,利用Spearman相关分析、GIS空间分析等方法,分析气候因素对植被覆盖度的影响。结果表明：（1） 近20 a植被覆盖度以中植被覆盖区为主,植被覆盖度减小了4.79%。（2） 植被覆盖度的空间稳定性波动较小,以波动变化（37.3%）、中等波动变化（32.7%）为主;植被覆盖度呈显著减少和不显著减少面积分别占总面积的3.8%、54.5%。（3） 耕地、林地、草地植被状况均呈现不同程度的轻微退化,在植被覆盖度上分别减少了4.57%、6.32%、4.24%,在空间稳定性上,不显著减少分别为51.28%、54.48%、52.29%。（4） 2001—2020年耕地比林地、草地空间稳定性和退化程度更为稳定和缓慢,林地退化比耕地、草地严重。研究区植被覆盖度变化较小,呈微弱下降趋势,人类活动是影响植被生长的主要因素。     

天然林资源保护一期工程生态成效评估——以甘肃小陇山地区为例

天然林资源保护工程是在中国广泛开展的一项重要生态建设工程。本文在构建生态多元评估指标体系的基础上,评估工程实施的生态成效,对于其进一步决策与管理具有重要的科学意义。通过遥感、生态系统质量等多源数据融合,采用生态系统宏观格局、生态系统质量、生态系统服务等方面指标的现状和时空变化特征,评估小陇山地区天然林保护一期工程(2000-2010年)实施成效。结果表明：①工程实施后,小陇山地区落叶阔叶林、落叶阔叶灌木林、草地等生态系统类型的面积大幅度增加,生态系统宏观状况转好,其中黄河流域生态系统宏观状况转好趋势明显好于长江流域。②研究区叶面积指数(LAI)和最大植被覆盖度(FC)在2000-2010年期间的多年变化斜率分别为0.022和0.510,生态系统质量上升趋势明显。其中黄河流域改善程度高于长江流域。③2010年研究区固碳量为700.20 t/hm²,相比工程初期的2000年增加了4.69%;工程实施之后的10年间,研究区水源涵养量呈增长趋势,土壤保持量亦呈增长趋势;就流域而言,黄河流域的生态系统服务的提升程度均更为明显。     

4个时期艾比湖湿地国家级自然保护区植被覆盖度变化

以艾比湖湿地国家级自然保护区为研究区,选用1972年、1998年、2007年和2013年9月或10月的Landsat MSS、Landsat TM和Landsat OLI遥感影像为主要数据源,采用像元二分方法,得到研究区的植被覆盖度,并将植被覆盖度分为3个等级;运用转移矩阵法,分析植被覆盖度变化情况。研究结果表明,与1972年相比,1998年植被有大幅度的改善,1998年低覆盖度(植被覆盖度≤30%)植被面积增加了708.80 km~2(占22.30%),植被类型主要为荒漠草原,高、中覆盖度植被面积分别仅增加不到3 km~2(占0.09%);与1998年相比,2007年该保护区的低覆盖度植被面积减少了943.82 km~2(占29.69%),高覆盖度植被面积减少了1.24 km~2(占0.04%),而中覆盖度植被面积增加了0.9 km~2(占0.03%);与2007年相比,2013年该保护区的低覆盖度植被面积减少了232.73 km~2(占7.32%),中覆盖度植被面积减少了0.84 km~2(占0.03%),而高覆盖度植被面积增加了1.96 km~2(占0.06%);与1972年相比,2013年该保护区的低覆盖度植被面积减少了467.75 km~2(占14.71%),高、中覆盖度植被面积都有所增加,分别增加了3.56 km~2(占0.11%)和3.01 km~2(占0.09%)。从空间变化来看,1972~2013年,艾比湖湿地国家级自然保护区植被减少了461.14 km~2,1998~2013年期间,该保护区东部植被面积大幅减少。     

基于多时相Landsat影像的中亚地区植被覆盖遥感监测

针对中亚地区的强生态脆弱性、高敏感性特征,有必要开展广域、长期的植被覆盖监测以匹配“绿色丝绸之路”的可持续发展目标。鉴于此,联合Landsat 5和Landsat 8卫星数据集,利用Google Earth Engine（GEE）地理空间数据云计算平台,估算了中亚地区1993—2018年间共12期的植被覆盖度。结果表明：（1）中亚地区植被覆盖总体水平较低,但也具有较为显著的空间异质性。（2）中亚地区1993—2018年间多数区域植被覆盖趋势较为稳定,哈萨克斯坦丘陵、费尔干纳盆地等区域植被覆盖度呈增加趋势,乌拉尔河流域和锡尔河流域等区域植被覆盖趋势为负。（3）植被覆盖度时序特征上,中亚地区1993—2018年间总体植被覆盖度累积增加3%,其中吉尔吉斯斯坦和塔吉克斯坦植被覆盖分别增加3.96%和5.86%。（4）裸土区呈退缩趋势,面积总计减少25.9×10⁴ km²,低植被覆盖区、中植被覆盖区和高植被覆盖区范围在呈现出的振荡式增加。研究结合遥感大数据和地理云计算对中亚地区进行区域尺度的植被覆盖动态监测,能对中亚地区生态评估和演替分析提供技术支持和定量数据。     

石家庄市域近期植被变化及其驱动因素分析

利用2004年和2010年TM卫星影像数据,对石家庄市域范围的植被变化情况进行了研究,结果表明:石家庄的植被近期变化以改善为主。从时间变化看,在2004-2010年间,全市NDVI的平均值从0.470 7提高到了0.541 6;极低覆盖度、低覆盖度、中覆盖度和高覆盖度植被所占比例分别降低了0.12%、0.7%、4.77%和24.32%,而极高覆盖度的植被面积比例则增加了29.9%;从植被指数差值结果看,全市植被改善面积比例高达83.84%,植被退化面积比例仅为16.16%。从植被变化的区域差异来看,极低覆盖度减幅最大的区域是中部丘陵区和东部平原区;中、高覆盖度的植被盖度等级则以东部平原区减幅最大;西部山区与中部丘陵区这两个区域极高植被盖度等级面积的增加幅度都达5 500 hm2以上。从植被指数差值结果看,改善面积最大的是东部经济林发展区,其改善面积比例达到了91%,改善面积比例最小的为城郊城市林业区,该区域植被改善的面积比例为74.9%。从植被变化的驱动力来看,研究时段的暖干型气候变化特点对于植被的生长于发育十分不利,因此研究时段内植被改善的主导驱动力是人为因素,其中山区的天然林保护工程、退耕还林工程是山区植被变化的主因;平原与丘陵区的植被改善主要得益于该区域的林果产业的发展;城郊城市林业区的植被变化与城区绿化工程的实施与绿地面积的扩大关系最为密切。     

2000-2015年石羊河流域植被覆盖度及其对气候变化的响应

内陆河流域植被覆盖度的敏感性是预测未来生物多样性变化的重要指标,是植被应对气候变暖的重要反馈。分析了2000-2015年MODIS-NDVI数据反演的植被覆盖度时空动态变化趋势,结合平均气温、降水量、日照时数、相对湿度、地面温度和蒸发量数据,研究了流域及各生态功能区的植被覆盖度与气候因子的相关性,探讨植被覆盖度变化过程中的气候因素制约方式,了解不同时空尺度下内陆河流域植被覆盖度在全球暖湿化过程中对气候的响应。结果表明：（1）石羊河流域平均植被覆盖度较低,上游的植被覆盖度59.4%,下游13.6%;2000-2015年,流域植被呈现改善趋势的面积远远大于退化的面积,盆地绿洲区植被覆盖度增加趋势最明显。流域植被总体恢复较好,但高海拔地区、城市和民勤绿洲的周边地区植被有不同程度的退化。（2）2000-2015年,石羊河流域各气候因子对植被覆盖度表现为不显著的相关关系,其中与降水量呈正相关的面积最大,与蒸发量呈负相关的面积最大;从上游到下游,植被生长与热量的相关程度逐渐变弱,与水分的相关程度则逐渐增强。（3）石羊河流域的植被覆盖度与气候因子的样条函数存在极显著的线性相关,水原涵养区和荒漠区的植被覆盖度对气候因子的响应较高;绿洲区的植被覆盖度对气候因子的响应相对较低。地面温度的变化是影响石羊河流域植被覆盖度空间格局变化的主要气候制约因素。     

基于RS的近30年滹沱河流域植被覆盖度动态变化研究

以滹沱河流域1984年、2001年和2014年3期遥感影像为数据源,基于像元二分模型,利用归一化植被指数(NDVI)反演流域植被覆盖度信息,分析了滹沱河流域近30年来植被覆盖度时空演变特征及其变化原因。滹沱河流域近30年来植被覆盖度总体呈增加趋势,其中高植被覆盖度区面积比例增幅最明显,增加了1.1倍。空间分布上,受气候和人类活动双重因素影响,流域不同区域植被覆盖度变化差异较显著,上中游植被总体以改善为主,海拔相对较低的区域则表现为退化,尤其是下游植被覆盖度持续下降,植被退化面积占该区的71.52%。     

Regional differentiation of ecological conservation and its zonal suitability at the county level in China

China’s investments, financial incentives and deductions in terms of ecological conservation are based at the county level. Therefore, the monitoring and assessment of the effects of ecological conservation at the county level is important to provide a scientific basis for the assessment of the ecological and environmental quality at the county scale. This paper quantitatively estimated the dynamics of high-quality ecosystems and vegetation coverage over the past 15 years, and their relationships with the number of ecological conservation programs at the county level were analyzed. Then, the effects of ecological conservation measures on ecological changes at the county level and their regional suitability were assessed and discussed. The results showed that counties with a percentage of high-quality ecosystems greater than 50% were primarily distributed in northeastern China, southern subtropical China and the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and those with a percentage lower than 20% were mostly distributed in northwestern China, the southwestern karst region and the North China Plain. In recent decades, ecological conservation has focused on ecologically fragile regions; more than five ecological conservation programs have been implemented in most counties of the Three River Source Region in Qinghai Province, southeastern Tibet, western Sichuan, the Qilian Mountains, southern Xinjiang and other western regions, while only one or zero have been implemented in the eastern coastal area of China. Over the past 15 years, the proportional area of high-quality ecosystems has increased in approximately 53% of counties. The vegetation coverage of counties in the Loess Plateau, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji), Sichuan-Guizhou-Chongqing, and Guangdong-Guangxi provincial-level areas has increased significantly. However, it decreased in northern Xinjiang, central Tibet, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, the Yangtze River Delta and other regions. The relationships between the numbers of ecological conservation programs and the indicators of ecosystem restoration response, such as high-quality ecosystem and vegetation coverage, do not show positive correlations. These results suggest that ecological conservation programs should be planned and implemented according to the distribution patterns of high-quality ecosystems and that restoration measures such as afforestation should follow natural principles and regional differentiation under the background of climate change.     

中国县域尺度生态保护的地域分异及其适宜性（英文）

China's investments, financial incentives and deductions in terms of ecological conservation are based at the county level. Therefore, the monitoring and assessment of the effects of ecological conservation at the county level is important to provide a scientific basis for the assessment of the ecological and environmental quality at the county scale. This paper quantitatively estimated the dynamics of high-quality ecosystems and vegetation coverage over the past 15 years, and their relationships with the number of ecological conservation programs at the county level were analyzed. Then, the effects of ecological conservation measures on ecological changes at the county level and their regional suitability were assessed and discussed. The results showed that counties with a percentage of high-quality ecosystems greater than 50% were primarily distributed in northeastern China, southern subtropical China and the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, and those with a percentage lower than 20% were mostly distributed in northwestern China, the southwestern karst region and the North China Plain. In recent decades, ecological conservation has focused on ecologically fragile regions; more than five ecological conservation programs have been implemented in most counties of the Three River Source Region in Qinghai Province, southeastern Tibet, western Sichuan, the Qilian Mountains, southern Xinjiang and other western regions, while only one or zero have been implemented in the eastern coastal area of China. Over the past 15 years, the proportional area of high-quality ecosystems has increased in approximately 53% of counties. The vegetation coverage of counties in the Loess Plateau, Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(Jing-Jin-Ji), Sichuan-Guizhou-Chongqing, and Guangdong-Guangxi provincial-level areas has increased significantly. However, it decreased in northern Xinjiang, central Tibet, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, the Yangtze River Delta and other regions. The relationships between the numbers of ecological conservation programs and the indicators of ecosystem restoration response, such as high-quality ecosystem and vegetation coverage, do not show positive correlations. These results suggest that ecological conservation programs should be planned and implemented according to the distribution patterns of high-quality ecosystems and that restoration measures such as afforestation should follow natural principles and regional differentiation under the background of climate change.     

西部地区生态状况变化及生态系统服务权衡与协同

西部大开发战略实施20年以来,一系列重大生态建设工程使得西部地区的生态状况和生态服务发生了重要变化,本文分析西部地区生态状况变化及其生态服务时空变化特征,并运用相关分析法研究其服务功能权衡协同关系。研究发现西部地区2000—2019年间：① 聚落和湿地生态系统面积显著增加,草地有逐年下降趋势。② 植被覆盖度呈波动上升趋势,存在年际差异且空间差异较大。③ 水源涵养服务有轻微下降趋势,下降区域主要分布在藏东南地区、三江源西部地区、喀斯特石漠化地区等;土壤保持服务波动中呈上升趋势,上升区域主要黄土高原地区、川滇西部地区、藏西北地区、藏东南地区等;防风固沙服务呈下降趋势,大幅下降区域主要位于内蒙古中西部地区、西藏和北疆部分地区。④ 生态系统供给与水源涵养、土壤保持主要为协同关系,与防风固沙主要为权衡关系且分布在农牧交错带地区。⑤ 生态工程区内生态系统服务协同程度大于非工程区。定量评估生态系统服务变化及其权衡协同关系有助于进行科学化生态管理,最大化生态效益。     

Ecological changes and the tradeoff and synergy of ecosystem services in western China

Since the implementation of the Development of Western Regions in 2000, a series of major ecological construction projects have been implemented, leading to a series of changes in the ecological conditions and ecological services of western China. This study calculated the amount of ecosystem services in total in the western region from 2000 to 2019, and analyzed ecological changes and the characteristics of spatio-temporal variations in ecological services. A relevant analysis method was applied to explore the tradeoff and synergy of service. It was found that the area of settlements and wetland ecosystems in the western region increased significantly from 2000 to 2015, whereas grassland showed a downward trend year by year. The vegetation fraction showed a decreasing belt-like distribution from south to north. It showed a fluctuating increase during 2000 to 2019, with inter-annual and large spatial differences. The water conservation service (WCS) had a slight downward trend from 2000 to 2019, and the main decreasing areas were distributed in southeastern Tibet, the western part of the Three Rivers Source region, and the karst rocky desertification area. The soil conservation service (SCS) showed an increasing but fluctuating trend, with the greatest increases observed in the Loess Plateau region, western Sichuan and Yunnan, northwest Tibet, and southeast Tibet. The windbreak and sand fixation service (SFS) showed a downward trend, and the sharp decline was mainly in the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia, Tibet and parts of northern Xinjiang. Ecosystem supply and WCS, and SCS were mainly synergistic, which were found in areas north of the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River (QM-HR) line, especially in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. Ecosystem supply was mainly tradeoffs with SFS, and it was found in the agriculture-pastoral transition zone. The synergistic degree of ecosystem services in areas subjected to ecological engineering policy was greater than that in non-engineering areas. Quantitative assessment of ecosystem service changes and their tradeoffs is helpful for scientific ecological management and maximizing ecological benefits.     

黄土高原植被覆盖变化对生态系统服务影响及其阈值

黄土高原是退耕还林工程的核心区域,是中国生态恢复成效最显著的区域。明确黄土高原植被恢复对生态系统服务的影响,识别植被影响的阈值效应,是学术研究和管理实践共同的需求。然而,目前相关研究仍存在研究空缺,特别是在区域尺度对生态系统服务随植被变化阈值进行识别的研究较少。本文选择植被覆盖度（FVC）为指标表征2000—2015年黄土高原植被恢复情况,以土壤保持服务、产水服务和碳固定服务为指标表征研究区生态系统服务情况,对二者的时空变化及交互作用进行分析,评估植被覆盖变化对生态系统服务的影响,并对影响的阈值进行定量识别。结果显示：① 2000—2015年黄土高原植被显著恢复;生态系统服务变化差异明显,碳固定服务明显增强,土壤保持服务得到一定改善,产水服务较为稳定。② 植被覆盖变化与生态系统服务变化的相关程度存在差异,植被覆盖与碳固定服务的关联性最强,其次为土壤保持服务。③ 植被覆盖增加能够促进区域生态系统服务总体提升,但促进作用存在阈值效应。植被覆盖影响的阈值在林地区、林地—草地区、草地区和草地—沙漠区分别为44%、32%、34%和34%,超过上述阈值,植被覆盖增加的促进作用趋于减弱。     

The conservation patterns of grassland ecosystem in response to the forage-livestock balance in North China

Being a key ecological security barrier and production base for grassland animal husbandry in China,the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure in North China directly affects grassland degradation and restoration,thereby impacting grassland ecosystem services.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in grassland vegetation coverage,forage supply,and the balance between grassland forage supply and livestock-carrying pressure from 2000 to 2015 in North China.We then discuss the spatial pattern of grassland ecological conservation under the impacts of grassland degradation and restoration,and livestock-carrying pressure.Over the last 16 years,the total grassland area in North China decreased by about 16,000 km2,with vegetation coverage degraded by 6.7％ of the grasslands but significantly restored by another 5.4％ of grasslands.The provisioning of forage by natural grassland mainly increased over time,with an annual growth rate of approximately 0.3 kg/ha,but livestock-carrying pressure also increased continuously.The livestock-carrying pressure index without any supplementary feeding reached as high as 3.8.Apart from the potential livestock-carrying capacity in northeastern Inner Mongolia and the central Tibetan Plateau,most regions in North China are currently overloaded.Considering the actual supplementary feeding during the cold season,the livestock-carrying pressure index is about 3.1,with the livestock-carrying pressure mitigated in central and eastern Inner Mongolia.Assuming full supplementary feeding in the cold season,livestock-carrying pressure index will fall to 1.9,with the livestock-carrying pressure alleviated significantly in Inner Mongolia and on the Tibetan Plateau.Finally,we propose different conservation and development strategies to balance grassland ecological conservation and animal husbandry production in different regions of protected areas,pastoral areas,farming-pastoral ecotone,and farming areas,according to the grassland ecological protection patterns.     

中国草畜平衡状态时空演变指示的草地生态保护格局

中国草原牧区作为重要生态安全屏障和草地畜牧业生产基地,其草畜平衡状态直接影响草地退化与恢复,进而影响草地生态系统服务能力的强弱。本文分析了2000—2015年主要草原牧区草地植被覆盖、牧草供给、草畜平衡状态的时空变化特征,深入探讨草地退化与恢复及载畜压力下草地生态系统保护与恢复空间格局。结果表明：过去16年主要草原牧区草地面积净减少约163万hm²,6.7%的草地出现植被覆盖退化,而5.4%的草地呈现植被覆盖明显恢复。天然草地牧草供给量以增加为主,年增率约0.3 kg/hm²,然而其载畜压力亦持续增加,不考虑补饲的载畜压力指数高达3.8,除内蒙古东北部、青藏高原中部仍有载畜潜力,其余多处于超载状态;考虑实际冷季补饲的载畜压力指数约3.1,内蒙古中东部有所缓解;假设冷季全额补饲则载畜压力指数减至1.9,内蒙古、青藏高原等区域明显缓解。叠加上述数据,本文针对自然保护地、牧区、半农半牧区和农区等不同区域的草地生态保护格局,提出了平衡草地生态保护与畜牧生产利用的不同发展策略。     

中国县域城镇化格局演化与优化路径

县域城镇化的有序发展和优化布局,对于推进城乡要素平等交换、产业结构优化调整、资源与市场优化配置、促进城乡融合发展与乡村振兴具有重要战略意义。研究表明：① 2000—2020年中国县域城镇化快速发展且区域差异显著,东部沿海地区、中部城郊地区和北方边境地区的县域城镇化率相对较高,而西南地区、中部农区、西藏及新疆大部分地区的县域城镇化率偏低;2020年沿“胡焕庸线”东侧的东北地区、冀北及晋陕豫地区、川东及云贵地区成为县域城镇化率高值区,珠三角地区、长三角地区、京津冀地区、成渝地区、长江中下游地区、内蒙古边境地区,以及江浙闽东南沿海一带城镇化率超过50%的县域达716个,占比38.3%。② 县域城镇化是人口、经济、社会、文化等要素综合作用的结果,经济发展水平、自然环境条件、基础设施建设、地理区位条件、公共资源供给、专业创业集群与宏观政策等影响县域城镇化的方向、范围和深度。预测到2035年中国城镇化率为76.04%,县域城镇化率为64.38%。未来要重视强化县域人口、经济、社会和空间组织结构的调整优化。③ 县域城镇化发展可分为大城市周边县域要素集聚型城镇化、专业功能县域产业集聚带动型城镇化、农产品主产区县域农业现代化引领型城镇化、重点生态功能区县域生态保育型城镇化、人口流失县域异地转移集中型城镇化等5种类型。④ 县域城镇化以县城和重点镇作为要素集聚的重要空间载体,形成居业协同与产城融合的多级体系。通过构建产业全价值链、主导产业关联集群、公共服务融合配置体系等创新路径,将推动城乡要素平等交换与公共资源均衡配置、城乡产业融合与等值化发展,促进城乡融合网络化、城乡治理体系化与资源利用集约化,为优化县域人地关系和城镇化空间体系提供持久动力。     

Patterns and trends in grain self-sufficiency on the Tibetan Plateau during 1985–2016

Capacity for grain self-sufficiency on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is an important basis for ensuring social stability and regional sustainability. Thus, based on county-level statistical data for population, grain production and consumption, we analyzed patterns and trends in grain supply and demand at regional, provincial, and county levels on the TP between 1985 and 2016. We applied two indices to evaluate capacity for grain self-sufficiency and found that the regional average self-sufficiency rate increased quickly by 1.97%/a since 1989, reaching 173.03% on the plateau over the period between 2010 and 2016. This indicates that grain supply in this region is able to fully meet demand. In addition, all provinces apart from Xinjiang exhibited similar increasing trends, attaining grain self-sufficiency during 2010–2016. Furthermore, 59% of counties attained grain self-sufficiency over this period, mainly distributed in southern Tibet, in the Sichuan-Tibet junction area, and in eastern Qinghai Province. A number of gaps in grain supply and demand occurred within the headwater regions of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers as well as on the Qiangtang Plateau. Grain self-sufficiency significantly increased over the study period in 36% of counties, mainly distributed in the agricultural areas of southeastern Tibet and in eastern Qinghai. Across the whole plateau, capacity for grain self-sufficiency substantially increased between 1985 and 2016, although serious spatial imbalances remain.