Geostrophic balance over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal regions

Geostrophic balance over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal regions has been studied using the wind data obtained from the AVRO (HS-748) aircraft during the FGGE-MONEX-79.In the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal regions, the observed wind south of 20°N was found to be sub-geostrophic. In the Arabian Sea region the departure at 1500 m was 75–95% and at 3050 m it was 60–65%. In the Bay of Bengal region the departure was 85–95%. In a few cases north of 20°N the observed winds at 3050 m were found to be super-geostrophic in the regions of enhanced monsoon activity, cyclonic circulation reaching up to 6000 m and in the region of monsoon trough.     

Investigation on the Influence of the Column Ozone Anomaly on the Energetics of Tropical Cyclones Over NIO and Related Air–Sea Interaction

An investigation on the temporal and spatial variation of ozone using the total column ozone (TCO) values during the cyclonic activities over North Indian Ocean (NIO) is carried out during the period from 1997 to 2012. The stepwise variation of TCO during the passage of the tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea of the NIO is examined. The anomalies in TCO are estimated at each step of the life span of the cyclones starting from the genesis to landfall stages. The result reveals that the TCO values are quite high prior to the formation of the depression over NIO; however, at the stage of cyclogenesis it decreases which, with the increase in the intensity of the cyclones, further decreases and becomes minimum near the coast during the landfall. The maximum negative anomaly in TCO is observed for maximum intensity of the tropical cyclones as well as during the landfall. The result further shows that when the cyclones die out after the landfall the TCO regains the normal value. It is further observed that the reduction in TCO enhances the accumulated cyclone energy over NIO. The result finally shows that, the higher the energy of the cyclones, the lower becomes the stratospheric warming, that is, the higher the stratospheric cooling.     

An anomalous cooling event observed in the Bay of Bengal during June 2009

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has the potential to trigger deep moist convection thereby affecting the active-break cycle of the monsoons. Normally, during the summer monsoon season, SST over the BoB is observed to be greater than 28°C which is a pre-requisite for convection. During June 2009, satellite observations revealed an anomalous basin-wide cooling and the month is noted for reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. In this study, we analyze the likely mechanisms of this cooling event using both satellite and moored buoy observations. Observations showed deepened mixed layer, stronger surface currents, and enhanced heat loss at the surface in the BoB. Mixed layer heat balance analysis is carried out to resolve the relative importance of various processes involved. We show that the cooling event is primarily induced by the heat losses at the surface resulting from the strong wind anomalies, and advection and vertical entrainment playing secondary roles.     

Processes of India’s offshore summer intraseasonal sea surface temperature variability

Active and break phases of the Indian summer monsoon are associated with sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuations at 30–90 days timescale in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Mechanisms responsible for basin-scale intraseasonal SST variations have previously been discussed, but the maxima of SST variability are actually located in three specific offshore regions: the South-Eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS), the Southern Tip of India (STI) and the North-Western Bay of Bengal (NWBoB). In the present study, we use an eddy-permitting 0.25° regional ocean model to investigate mechanisms of this offshore intraseasonal SST variability. Modelled climatological mixed layer and upper thermocline depth are in very good agreement with estimates from three repeated expendable bathythermograph transects perpendicular to the Indian Coast. The model intraseasonal forcing and SST variability agree well with observed estimates, although modelled intraseasonal offshore SST amplitude is undere-stimated by 20–30 %. Our analysis reveals that surface heat flux variations drive a large part of the intraseasonal SST variations along the Indian coastline while oceanic processes have contrasted contributions depending of the region considered. In the SEAS, this contribution is very small because intraseasonal wind variations are essentially cross-shore, and thus not associated with significant upwelling intraseasonal fluctuations. In the STI, vertical advection associated with Ekman pumping contributes to ～30 % of the SST fluctuations. In the NWBoB, vertical mixing diminishes the SST variations driven by the atmospheric heat flux perturbations by 40 %. Simple slab ocean model integrations show that the amplitude of these intraseasonal SST signals is not very sensitive to the heat flux dataset used, but more sensitive to mixed layer depth.     

Regional energetics over the North Pacific,South China Sea and the Indonesian seas during winter

The energy equation was applied to four limited regions to investigate the basic mechanisms through which area-averaged eddy kinetic energy is maintained during the northern winter. The regions selected for this study are as follows: extratropical North Pacific (24.2°N–44.6°N, 130°E–150°W), tropical eastern North Pacific (0°–19.6°N, 170°W–110°W), South China Sea and. Bay of Bengal (0°–19.6°N, 80°E–140°E), and Timor Sea and eastern Indian Ocean (0°–19.6°S, 80°E–140°E). The zonally averaged upper flows over the first region were found to be barotropically stable. In contrast, they were barotropically unstable over the second region; namely, eddy motions over the tropical eastern North Pacific are maintained by receiving energy from zonal flows via barotropic interaction. The third and fourth regions are characterized by the importance of the conversion process between eddy available potential and eddy kinetic energy.Contribution No. 77-5, Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii, USA.     

Upper oceanic response to tropical cyclone Phailin in the Bay of Bengal using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model

A numerical simulation of very severe cyclonic storm ‘Phailin’, which originated in southeastern Bay of Bengal (BoB) and propagated northwestward during 10–15 October 2013, was carried out using a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. A Model Coupling Toolkit (MCT) was used to make exchanges of fluxes consistent between the atmospheric model ‘Weather Research and Forecasting’ (WRF) and ocean circulation model ‘Regional Ocean Modelling System’ (ROMS) components of the ‘Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport’ (COAWST) modelling system. The track and intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) Phailin simulated by the WRF component of the coupled model agrees well with the best-track estimates reported by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Ocean model component (ROMS) was configured over the BoB domain; it utilized the wind stress and net surface heat fluxes from the WRF model to investigate upper oceanic response to the passage of TC Phailin. The coupled model shows pronounced sea surface cooling (2–2.5 °C) and an increase in sea surface salinity (SSS) (2–3 psu) after 06 GMT on 12 October 2013 over the northwestern BoB. Signature of this surface cooling was also observed in satellite data and buoy measurements. The oceanic mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals relative roles of different oceanic processes in controlling the mixed layer temperature over the region of observed cooling. The heat budget highlighted major contributions from horizontal advection and vertical entrainment processes in governing the mixed layer cooling (up to ?0.1 °C h^?1) and, thereby, reduction in sea surface temperature (SST) in the northwestern BoB during 11–12 October 2013. During the post-cyclone period, the net heat flux at surface regained its diurnal variations with a noontime peak that provided a warming tendency up to 0.05 °C h^?1 in the mixed layer. Clear signatures of TC-induced upwelling are seen in vertical velocity (about 2.5 × 10^?3 m s^?1), rise in isotherms and isohalines along 85–88° E longitudes in the northwestern BoB. The study demonstrates that a coupled atmosphere-ocean model (WRF + ROMS) serves as a useful tool to investigate oceanic response to the passage of cyclones.     

Role of fronts in the formation of Arabian Sea barrier layers during summer monsoon

The barrier layer (BL) — a salinity stratification embedded in the upper warm layer — is a common feature of the tropical oceans. In the northern Indian Ocean, it has the potential to significantly alter the air–sea interactions. In the present paper, we investigate the spatio-temporal structure of BL in the Arabian Sea during summer monsoon. This season is indeed a key component of the Asian climate. Based on a comprehensive dataset of Conductivity–Temperature–Depth (CTD) and Argo in situ hydrographic profiles, we find that a BL exists in the central Arabian Sea during summer. However, it is highly heterogeneous in space, and intermittent, with scales of about ～100 km or less and a couple of weeks. The BL patterns appear to be closely associated to the salinity front separating two water masses (Arabian Sea High Salinity Water in the Northern and Eastern part of the basin, fresher Bay of Bengal Water to the south and to the west). An ocean general circulation model is used to infer the formation mechanism of the BL. It appears that thick (more than 40 m) BL patterns are formed at the salinity front by subduction of the saltier water mass under the fresher one in an area of relatively uniform temperature. Those thick BL events, with variable position and timing, result in a broader envelope of thinner BL in climatological conditions. However, the individual patterns of BL are probably too much short-lived to significantly affect the monsoonal air–sea interactions.     

赤道MJO活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响

利用1979—2013年NCEP/DOE再分析资料的大气多要素日平均资料、美国NOAA日平均向外长波辐射资料和ERSST月平均海温资料,分析赤道大气季节内振荡(简称MJO)活动对南海夏季风爆发的影响及其与热带海温信号等的协同作用.结果表明,赤道MJO活动与南海夏季风爆发密切联系,MJO的湿位相(即对流活跃位相)处于西太平洋位相时,有利于南海夏季风爆发,而MJO湿位相处于印度洋位相时,则不利于南海夏季风爆发.赤道MJO活动影响南海夏季风爆发的物理过程主要是大气对热源响应的结果,当MJO湿位相处于西太平洋位相时,一方面热带西太平洋对流加强使潜热释放增加,导致处于热源西北侧的南海—西北太平洋地区对流层低层由于Rossby响应产生气旋性环流异常,气旋性环流异常则有利于西太平洋副热带高压的东退,另一方面菲律宾附近热源促进对流层高层南亚高压在中南半岛和南海北部的建立,使南海地区高层为偏东风,从而有利于南海夏季风建立;当湿位相MJO处于印度洋位相时,热带西太平洋对流减弱转为大气冷源,情况基本相反,不利于南海夏季风建立.MJO活动、孟加拉湾气旋性环流与年际尺度海温变化协同作用,共同对南海夏季风爆发迟早产生影响,近35年南海夏季风爆发时间与海温信号不一致的年份,基本上是由于季节转换期间的MJO活动特征及孟加拉湾气旋性环流是否形成而造成,因此三者综合考虑对于提高季风爆发时间预测水平具有重要意义.     

The effects of asymmetric potential vorticity forcing on the instability of South Asia High and Indian summer monsoon onset

Based on the theory of potential vorticity(PV),the unstable development of the South Asia High(SAH)due to diabatic heating and its impacts on the Indian Summer Monsoon(ISM)onset are studied via a case diagnosis of 1998.The Indian Summer Monsoon onset in 1998 is related to the rapidly strengthening and northward moving of a tropical cyclone originally located in the south of Arabian Sea.It is demonstrated that the rapid enhancement of the cyclone is a consequence of a baroclinic development characterized by the phase-lock of high PV systems in the upper and lower troposphere.Both the intensification of the SAH and the development of the zonal asymmetric PV forcing are forced by the rapidly increasing latent heat released from the heavy rainfall in East Asia and South East Asia after the onsets of the Bay of Bengal(BOB)monsoon and the South China Sea(SCS)monsoon.High PV moves southwards along the intensified northerlies on the eastern side of the SAH and travels westwards on its south side,which can reach its northwest.Such a series of high PV eddies are transported to the west of the SAH continuously,which is the main source of PV anomalies in the upper troposphere over the Arabian Sea from late spring to early summer.A cyclonic curvature on the southwest of the SAH associated with increasing divergence,which forms a strong upper tropospheric pumping,is generated by the anomalous positive PV over the Arabian Sea on 355 K.The cyclone in the lower troposphere moves northwards from low latitudes of the Arabian Sea,and the upper-layer high PV extends downwards and southwards.Baroclinic development thus occurs and the tropical low-pressure system develops into an explosive vortex of the ISM,which leads to the onset of the ISM.In addition,evolution of subtropical anticyclone over the Arabian Peninsula is another important factor contributing to the onset of the ISM.Before the onset,the surface sensible heating on the Arabian Peninsula is very strong.Consequently the subtropical anticyclone which dominated the Arabian Sea in spring retreats westwards to the Arabian Peninsula and intensifies rapidly.The zonal asymmetric PV forcing develops gradually with high PV eddies moving southwards along northerlies on the eastern side of the anticyclone,and a high PV trough is formed in the middle troposphere over the Arabian Sea,which is favorable to the explosive barotropic development of the tropical cyclone into the vortex.Results from this study demonstrate that the ISM onset,which is different from the BOB and the SCS monsoon onset,is a special dynamical as well as thermodynamic process occurring under the condition of fully coupling of the upper,middle,and lower tropospheric circulations.     

Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Circulation Over the Bay of Bengal Using the Arakawa-Schubert Cumulus Parameterization. Part II: Some Sensitivity Experiments

—?The role of sea-surface temperature (SST) and Coriolis parameter in the evolution and intensification of tropical cyclones has been examined using the ten-level axi-symmetric primitive equation model described in the companion paper (Bhaskar Rao and Ashok, 1999). Two experiments have been conducted using the ten-level model to assess the role of Coriolis parameter “f” in tropical cyclone intensity and the size of the storm generated. Six experiments have been performed to assess the importance of Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) in tropical cyclogenesis and intensification. The initial thermodynamic field and the initial vortex are the same as that used to simulate the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone discussed in the companion paper. Further sensitivity experiments indicated a strong dependency of the model on SSTs. The model initial vortex could not intensify with an SST of 299?K but could with an SST of 300?K. The increase of SST from 300?K to 300.5?K shows rapid intensification with a minimum central surface pressure of 910?hPa and a maximum tangential wind of 80?m/s. Further increase of SST only shows a marginal increase in intensity and a larger radius of maximum wind. Sensitivity experiments to assess the role of the Coriolis parameter suggest that tropical cyclones develop more intensity and are faster at relatively lower latitudes.     

On the Prediction of Tropical Cyclones over the Indian Region Using a Synthetic Vortex Scheme in a Mesoscale Model

The tropical cyclones form over the oceanic regions where conventional meteorological observations are not available. This contributes to a poor initial analysis of the cyclonic vortex and hence inadequate forecast. One way of overcoming the above problem is to modify the initial analysis by replacing the weak and ill-defined vortex in the initial analysis with a synthetic vortex having the correct size and intensity at the correct location. In this study we are investigating the effect of inclusion of a synthetic vortex based on Rankine as well as on Holland wind profiles, using NCAR-AFWA bogussing scheme for the prediction of four tropical cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during November 2002 and 2005, December 2005 and over the Arabian Sea during May 2004, using the MM5 model. Two numerical experiments are designed in this study for each of the above four cyclones. In the first experiment the model is integrated with a synthetic vortex based on Rankine wind profile while in the second experiment we utilize the Holland wind profile. For the November 2002 cyclone, in both the experiments the model is integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time. The results of the study for the November 2002 cyclone show that the model simulation with the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. Also, the results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Holland vortex showed a better longitudinal height section of the horizontal wind speed across the center of the cyclone. The track error of the cyclone for the November 2002 cyclone is less in the model simulation with the Holland vortex at the initial time and at 24 hours of forecast. The results for the November 2002 cyclone with the Rankine vortex showed greater vertical wind speed as compared to the Holland vortex. However, for the November 2002 cyclone there were no significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for both the experiments. In order to provide an adequate number of case studies for a good statistical sample, the present study is extended for three additional cyclones over the Indian region. All four cyclones studied here show that the Holland vortex has produced a stronger cyclone in terms of the minimum sea-level pressure and maximum wind speed. The Holland vortex showed a better vertical structure of wind speed in the longitudinal height section at 24 hours of forecast for the November 2005 cyclone while the structure was better for the Rankine vortex for the remaining two cyclones. There were no significant differences in the spatial distribution of precipitation for the two experiments corresponding to all four cyclones. Some statistical results pertaining to all four cyclones are provided such as the average track error as well as the average difference between the observed and the model minimum sea-level pressure and the maximum wind speed. The statistical results corresponding to the average of all the four cyclones are at only a slight variance with the results corresponding to the November 2002 cyclone.     

Observed oceanic response to tropical cyclone Jal from a moored buoy in the south-western Bay of Bengal

Upper oceanographic and surface meteorological time-series observations from a moored buoy located at 9.98°N, 88°E in the south-western Bay of Bengal (BoB) were used to quantify variability in upper ocean, forced by a tropical cyclone (TC) Jal during November 2010. Before the passage of TC Jal, salinity and temperature profiles showed a typical BoB post-monsoon structure with relatively warm (30 °C) and low-saline (32.8 psu) waters in the upper 30- to 40-m layer, and relatively cooler and higher salinity (35 psu) waters below. After the passage of cyclone, an abrupt increase of 1 psu (decrease of 1 °C) in salinity (temperature) in the near-surface layers (up to 40-m depth) was observed from buoy measurements, which persisted up to 10–12 days during the relaxation stage of cyclone. Mixed layer heat budget analysis showed that vertical processes are the dominant contributors towards the observed cooling. The net surface heat flux and horizontal advection together contributed approximately 33 % of observed cooling, during TC Jal forced stage. Analysis showed the existence of strong inertial oscillation in the thermocline region and currents with periodicity of ～2.8 days. During the relaxation stage of the cyclone, upward movement of thermocline in near-inertial frequencies played significant role in mixed layer temperature and salinity variability, by much freer turbulent exchange between the mixed layer and thermocline.     

Zonal propagation of kinetic energy and convection in the South China Sea and Indian monsoon regions in boreal summer

As early as in the 1980s, Chinese scientists hadfirst proposed that there exits two summer monsoonsystems in Asia, namely the East Asian summer mon-soon (EASM) and the Indian summer monsoon(ISM)[1-4]. The two monsoon systems are quite dif-ferent in characteristics. Since then, such issue andconclusion had been documented and approved by alot of studies in the past two decades, and was appliedin the guideline of the South China Sea summer mon-soon experiment (SCSMEX), which was undertak…     

Variability of Convective Activity over the North Indian Ocean and its Associations with Monsoon Rainfall over India

The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.     

Present state of oil pollution in the northern Indian Ocean

A consolidated picture of oil pollution for the northern Indian Ocean is presented. Oil slicks were sighted on 5582 observations, about 83.5% of the total observations of 6689. The range of concentrations, of the floating tar balls, is 0–6.0 mg/m² in the Arabian Sea. Similarly, the oil tanker route in the Bay of Bengal has the range of 0–69.75 mg/m². North of this route, the Bay of Bengal is comparatively free from this floating tar. Mean concentrations of dissolved and dispersed hydrocarbons for 0–20 m are 32.5 and 24.1 μg kg^?1, respectively, in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.     

A coupled model analyses on the interaction between oceanic eddies and tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

Ocean Dynamics - The Bay of Bengal (BOB) region of Indian Ocean is affected by numerous tropical cyclones during pre- and post-monsoon seasons when various eddies are generated in the central and...     

Intraseasonal Variability of the Summer Monsoon over the North Indian Ocean as Revealed by the BOBMEX and ARMEX Field Programs

During the summer monsoon season over India a range of intraseasonal modulations of the monsoon rains occur due to genesis of weather disturbances over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the east Arabian Sea. The amplitudes of the fluctuations in the surface state of the ocean (sea-surface temperature and salinity) and atmosphere are quite large due to these monsoonal modulations on the intraseasonal scale as shown by the data collected during the field programs under Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) and Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiments (ARMEX). The focus of BOBMEX was to understand the role of ocean-atmospheric processes in organizing convection over the BOB on intra-seasonal scale. ARMEX-I was aimed at understanding the coupled processes in the development of deep convection off the West Coast of India. ARMEX-II was focused on the formation of the mini-warm pool across the southeast Arabian Sea in April-May and its role in the abrupt onset of the monsoon along the Southwest Coast of India and its further progress along the West Coast of India. The paper attempts to integrate the results of the observational studies and brings out an important finding that atmospheric instability is prominently responsible for convective organization whereas the upper ocean parameters regulate the episodes of the intraseasonal oscillations.     

The kinetic energy budget of monsoon circulation over the Indian region during ISMEX-1973

A kinetic energy budget over the Indian region is computed for the period 4–9 July 1973, when a twin monsoon depression-one in the Bay of Bengal and another in the Arabian sea were the dominant synoptic features. The generation term caused by the cross-contour flow is a dominant source to the kinetic energy. The dissipation term is computed as a residual and is a major sink for the kinetic energy. The horizontal flux divergence is also a sink term but is much smaller in magnitude than other major source and sink terms. From the results it may be inferred that the generation term is the most important for the maintenance of monsoon disturbances.     

Observations of the thermodynamic structure of marine atmospheric boundary layer over Bay of Bengal,Northern Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea during premonsoon period

This paper presents the observations of the thermodynamic structure of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) over Bay of Bengal (BoB), Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) and Arabian Sea (AS) regions, using radiosonde observations carried out as a part of the Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB) during March–May 2006. Most of the profiles show the general structure of tropical MABL which consists of surface layer, sub-cloud layer (mixed layer), transition layer, cloud layer and trade wind inversion (TWI). However, in few soundings over BoB and AS, it was observed that the cloud layer is remarkably well-mixed, forming a double mixed layer (DML) structure. This feature is seen to be closely associated with the low level anticyclonic system over these sectors. The average profiles of vertical wind (corresponding to the region of observation) obtained from NCEP showed that there is an increase in the vertical velocity on the days when such a double mixed layer was observed and the altitude region of this high ω coincides with that of the DML. The study also reveals some important differences in the MABL structure during convectively active and weak periods. The spatial variation of the parameters like mixed layer (ML) depth, height of lifting condensation level (LCL), level of free convection (LFC), and trade wind inversion (TWI) are presented and discussed in detail. The TWI observations are first of their kind from the BoB region. The TWI top is found to be at a higher height compared to the observations over other oceanic regions, and the relationship between the TWI altitude and lapse rate of specific humidity is used to explain why the TWI was formed at a higher height. The observations of the MABL parameters are also compared with those reported from the previous campaigns over these regions.     

Upper mixed layer temperature anomalies at the North Atlantic storm-track zone

Synoptic sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) were determined as a result of separation of time scales smaller than 183 days. The SSTAs were investigated using daily data of ocean weather station “C” (52.75°N; 35.5°W) from 1 January 1976 to 31 December 1980 (1827 days). There were 47 positive and 50 negative significant SSTAs (lifetime longer than 3 days, absolute value greater than 0.10 °C) with four main intervals of the lifetime repetitions: 1. 4–7 days (45% of all cases), 2. 9–13 days (20-25%), 3. 14–18 days (10-15%), and 4. 21–30 days (10-15%) and with a magnitude 1.5-2.0 °C. An upper layer balance model based on equations for temperature, salinity, mechanical energy (with advanced parametrization), state (density), and drift currents was used to simulate SSTA. The original method of modelling taking into account the mean observed temperature profiles proved to be very stable. The model SSTAs are in a good agreement with the observed amplitudes and phases of synoptic SSTAs during all 5 years. Surface heat flux anomalies are the main source of SSTAs. The influence of anomalous drift heat advection is about 30-50% of the SSTA, and the influence of salinity anomalies is about 10-25% and less. The influence of a large-scale ocean front was isolated only once in February-April 1978 during all 5 years. Synoptic SSTAs develop just in the upper half of the homogeneous layer at each winter. We suggest that there are two main causes of such active sublayer formation: 1. surface heat flux in the warm sectors of cyclones and 2. predominant heat transport by ocean currents from the south. All frequency functions of the ocean temperature synoptic response to heat and momentum surface fluxes are of integral character (red noise), though there is strong resonance with 20-days period of wind-driven horizontal heat advection with mixed layer temperature; there are some other peculiarities on the time scales from 5.5 to 13 days. Observed and modelled frequency functions seem to be in good agreement.