Climate change in the Arctic: current and future vulnerability in two Inuit communities in Canada

Climate change is already occurring in the Arctic and the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment recently concluded that future climate change could be devastating for Inuit. This paper characterises vulnerability to climate change in two Inuit communities in the Canadian territory of Nunavut, focusing on the resource harvesting sector. In both communities, Inuit have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of current changes in climatic conditions. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in resource use, and institutional support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities. Global and regional climate projections indicate that climatic conditions which currently pose risks are expected to be negatively affected by future climate change. These projections are not without precedent and analysis of current vulnerability and identification of adaptation constraints by Inuit in the two communities indicate the continued importance of traditional coping mechanisms. The ability to draw on these coping mechanisms in light of future climate change, however, will be unequal and the research indicates that young Inuit and those without access to economic resources, in particular, are vulnerable.     

Foreword to the special issue: climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic

The Arctic climate is changing, carrying wide-ranging implications for indigenous and non-indigenous inhabitants, businesses, industry and government across the circumpolar region. The latest scientific assessments indicate that change is happening faster than previously thought, and that the Arctic will continue to experience dramatic climate change in the future. This special edition of Polar Research brings together nine papers on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in the Arctic, providing important insights on the nature of the risks and opportunities posed by climate change in the circumpolar region, highlighting opportunities for policy response and providing insights on how to conduct effective climate change research with Arctic communities.     

中国区域陆地生态系统碳收支综合研究的科技需求与重要科学问题

陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程机制研究一直是全球气候变化的成因分析、变化趋势预测、减缓和适应对策分析等领域的热点,受到科技界和国际社会的广泛关注。本文在简要回顾中国陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程研究领域的发展历史,总结各个发展阶段主要特征的基础上,讨论了开展中国区域陆地生态系统碳收支综合研究的科技需求和社会需求,评述了中国在相关领域研究中存在的主要问题,探讨了当前的科学研究前沿领域及其关键科学问题。本文指出,现阶段中国开展区域尺度陆地生态系统碳收支及其循环过程机制综合研究工作不仅是提升中国生态系统生态学、地球系统科学与全球变化科学的创新能力的科技发展需求,更是中国参与应对全球气候变化国际合作、改进生态系统管理、保障生态安全的社会经济发展需求。同时还指出,中国现阶段在该领域的研究工作还缺乏各类生态系统碳收支的实际调查数据,缺乏国家尺度碳收支科学数据的整合,缺乏可用于碳收支计量与综合评估的模型工具,也没有形成国家层次的碳源汇计量、评估、认证及决策分析信息系统平台。本文通过国内外科技发展的分析认为,中国在该领域的研究工作,应在大力发展陆地生态系统碳收支和碳汇功能的定量监测、评价和认证的方法与技术基础上,重点关注并前瞻性地开展陆地生态系统碳-氮-水循环过程耦合关系及其对全球气候变化的响应与适应、碳-氮-磷生态化学计量学特征及其环境影响、碳-氮-水耦合循环过程的生物调控机制等前沿领域,以提高中国生态系统与全球变化科学研究水平,为国家的生态系统与温室气体管理提供基础理论、科学知识和先进技术的储备。     

The Role of Local Knowledge in the Risk Management of Extreme Climates in Local Communities: A Case Study in a Nomadic NIAHS Site

In the context of climate change, research on extreme climates and disaster risk management has become a crucial component of climate change adaptation. Local communities, which have been facing extreme climates for a long time in their production and daily life, have developed some locally applicable traditional knowledge that has played an important role in their adaptation to extreme climate and disaster risk management. Therefore, this research aims to link Local knowledge (LK) to community extreme climate disaster risk management in order to construct a conceptual model. It then takes the extreme climate adaptation strategy of traditional nomads in a temperate grassland of China as an example to analyze the role of LK in extreme climate adaptation using the proposed theoretical framework. The main research objectives of this study are: (1) To construct a conceptual model to illustrate the relations among extreme climate events, risk management, LK, and farmers' adaptation strategies; (2) To apply the theoretical framework to a field case to reveal context-specific extreme climate adaptation mechanisms with LK as a critical component; (3) To test the framework and provide suggestions for the extreme climates adaptation, and the conservation of LK related to climate change adaptation. The results show that from the perspective of disaster risk management, local communities could manage extreme climates as a disaster risk through adaptation strategies formed from LK, because as a knowledge system, LK contains relevant knowledge covering the whole process of disaster risk management.     

气候变化对冰冻圈国家领土博弈的地缘影响

冰冻圈变化的自然过程影响着国家领土博弈地缘关系的建构。基于人地关系思想,以变化-影响-适应为主线建立气候变化影响下冰冻圈国家领土博弈的研究框架,分析自然因素对冰冻圈地缘结构的塑造和对冰冻圈国家身份-利益的建构,以及极地海权、陆权和其他地区领土博弈所形成的双多边地缘关系。研究结果：① 冰冻圈领土博弈地缘结构初步形成。理念层面,自然要素成为气候政治的力量之一,冰冻圈领土博弈体现出传统地缘逻辑;空间层面,气候变化释放极地、高山等新运筹空间,北极、南极成为大国博弈焦点;物质层面,极地海权和陆权利益是大国博弈的主要目标。② 冰冻圈国家身份-利益影响其冰冻圈地缘政治行为,其身份认同的客观基础之一是在冰冻圈分布结构的相对位置。③ 冰冻圈国家领土博弈地缘关系有“趋利”“避害”两类。“利”指为赢得极地海权、陆权,气候变化下西方大国和地区大国开始争夺南北极200海里外大陆架权属,加强极地实质性“硬、软存在”战略布局,美国和丹麦强化格陵兰岛北极战略支点作用;“害”指冰冻圈灾害引起的跨境气候移民等国家利益受损问题。     

A bridge over troubled water: A contextual analysis of social vulnerability to climate change in a riverine landscape in south-east Norway

Local communities in the Gudbrandsdalen region in Norway are increasingly exposed to climate-induced hazards such as floods and landslides. A core question is how community members respond to climate change and what factors contribute to more resilient communities. The authors used a contextual approach to analyze data from semi-structured interviews along five dimensions. In Gaustad Muncipality they found that individuals’ motivation to adapt to climate change depended largely on subjective values such as identity, place attachment, cultural values, and social networks among individuals, which means it is crucial that strategic plans for adaptation to climate change at different policy levels are experienced as relevant by community members. While the studied community has experienced heavy floods in river systems and streams, little evidence of adaptation was observed. Instead, they appeared to adopt coping strategies. Landowners may have limited incentives to adapt to climate change due to contraproductive policy measures such as economic compensation for direct losses without requiring improved practices. Effective adaptation to climate change on the local level is likely to require making compensation mechanisms contingent upon landowners showing willingness to change from coping to adaptive practices, as well as a contextualized approach integrating local and scientific forms of knowledge.     

基于统计模型识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的研究进展

从统计模型与作物机理模型的区别与联系出发, 介绍了识别气候变化对农业产量贡献的3 种主要统计模型, 即时间序列模型、截面模型和面板模型;综述了前人在站点和区域(全球、国家、省级、地区、县级) 尺度对这一问题的研究进展;总结了应用统计模型识别农业产量对气候变化响应敏感性的4 个主要问题, 包括时空尺度问题、产量的非气候趋势去除问题、气候要素间的自相关问题和忽略适应措施的问题;最后针对以上主要问题, 提出了改进建议及今后研究的发展趋势。     

Are We There Yet? NSW local governments’ progress on climate change

Local governments are responding to top-down policy initiatives from both federal and State governments to reduce emissions, and adapt to any potential impacts of climate change. Although climate change is clearly a global problem, many of the solutions will be implemented at the local level. To explore this issue, the aim of this research was to examine regional variation in climate change response across New South Wales (NSW). To this end, between September 2010 and September 2011, we reviewed publicly available council and regional documentations for all NSW councils. The indicators of response examined were based on the NSW Greenhouse Plan (2005). These were awareness-raising, emissions reduction and adaptation planning. It was found that councils were undertaking many practical projects to fulfil the goals of this plan. As a result, they are abating significant quantities of emissions. Adaptation is progressing through the development of risk-based climate change adaptation plans. Councils are addressing particular areas of management, such as water management, assisted by guidelines which incorporate consideration for climate change as part of best practice. While overall responses to this threat are progressing, a distinct urban bias in action has been observed, due to biases in policy and funding arrangements.     

北极航道相关海域科学考察研究进展

我国从1999年开始已实施了四次北极科学考察,对白令海、楚科奇海、波弗特海、加拿大海盆和马卡若夫海盆进行了广泛的考察。全球变化导致的北冰洋夏季海冰覆盖面积不断减少,导致冰期以来北极东北航道和西北航道的首次同时开通。北极航道集中在陆架海域,不仅是海冰变化最为显著的海域,同时也是陆地－北冰洋相互作用最为显著的区域,对北冰洋区域气候、生态系统和生物多样性、以及经济和当地土著居民生活等具有重大影响。本文对北极航道关键海域近年来国际相关科学考察进行了总结,对科学考察背后的各国北极策略进行分析,并从科学需求的角度对我国在今后北极科学考察中针对北极航道相关海域应开展的科学考察与研究提出了相关建议。     

Navigating the Roles of the Social Learning Researcher: a critical analysis of a learning approach to guide climate change adaptation

Climate change adaptation is now a core theme of Australian geographical research. Climatic risks to socio-ecosystems are unbounded and highly uncertain and as a result require learning-based approaches to generate appropriate adaptation responses. Geographical research can effectively integrate knowledge developed through the mutual learning of researchers and stakeholders within a place to help guide adaptation planning. The roles of the geographer as a social learning researcher are critically analysed within the context of climate change adaptation research undertaken to support regional natural resource management adaptation planning in South Australia. Three research roles from the social learning literature are used to frame the analysis: the organic intellectual; the advocate for social justice; and the contemporary professional academic. While the social learning helped to develop a range of experimental adaptation policies and actions, the research would have proceeded more effectively if the challenges of the approach had been initially understood. The problems which emerge from social learning research, including inevitable tensions between real-world and academic outcomes, need to be acknowledged along with any successes to prepare future geographers to facilitate learning about socio-ecological risk.     

A high resolution multi-proxy record of pronounced recent environmental change at Baker Lake,Nunavut

Arctic aquatic systems are considered to be especially sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance, which can have cascading effects on biological communities as aquatic food-web structure is altered. Bio-indicators that respond to major limnological changes can be used to detect and infer major environmental change, such as climate warming, with the use of paleolimnological techniques. A multi-proxy approach was used to quantify recent environmental changes at Baker Lake, Nunavut, Arctic Canada. Analyses of fossilized remains of chironomids and diatoms were conducted on a sediment core of 20 cm in length sampled at 0.5-cm intervals. A new surface sediment training set of subfossil chironomid assemblages from 65 lakes across the eastern Canadian Arctic generated a robust (r _jack² = 0.79) surface water paleotemperature transfer function. The transfer function was applied to stratigraphic intervals from the Baker Lake sediment core to generate a paleotemperature reconstruction of sub-decadal resolution. The surface water temperature reconstruction inferred a 2°C increase in mid-summer surface water temperature for Baker Lake over the last 60 years, which was corroborated by the local instrumental record spanning the period of 1950–2007 AD. The chironomid record shows a recent decline of several cold-water taxa and appearance of warm-water indicators. This shift in community structure began circa 1906 AD, and intensified after 1940 AD. The corresponding fossil diatom record showed an increase in small planktonic Cyclotella taxa over the past 60 years, intensifying in the last 5 years, which also suggests a warmer climate and longer ice-free periods. The shifts in the diatom assemblages began later than the shifts in the chironomid assemblages, and were of lower magnitude, reflecting differences in the mechanisms in which these two indicators respond to environmental change.     

全球环境变化对我国区域发展的可能影响评述

随着环境问题的日益突出,全球环境变化的区域响应已成为我国全球变化研究的优先领域和热点问题之一。国内外学者就全球问题与区域问题的结合达成共识:全球性问题的研究需要由区域工作来完成;区域性研究必须体现全球性问题。本文介绍了全球变化对区域发展影响评价的基本方法,特别是IPCC评价报告中采用的区域脆弱性、敏感性评价方法;概述了我国未来50年环境变化的可能情景;从自然生态系统变化、水资源短缺、沙漠化、农业生产等方面评述了全球环境变化对我国区域发展可能影响研究的进展和成果,最后指出了全球变化区域响应研究存在的问题,并对其发展方向作了展望。     

Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data

This study evaluates new multi-scale, multi-indicator methods for assessing the vulnerability of crop production to drought at a national and regional scale. It does this by identifying differences across and within ten regions of Ghana, a country that faces many climate and crop production challenges typical of sub-Saharan Africa. In particular, we illustrate how a quantitative national and regional study is a critical first step in assessing differences in the drought sensitivity of food production systems and show how such an assessment enables the formulation of more targeted district and community level research that can explore the drivers of vulnerability and change on a local-scale. Finally, we propose methodological steps that can improve drought sensitivity and vulnerability assessments in dynamic dryland farming systems where there are multiple drivers of change and thresholds of risk that vary in both space and time. Results show that the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana has discernible geographical and socioeconomic patterns, with the Northern, Upper West and Upper East regions being most vulnerable. Partly, this is because these regions have the lowest adaptive capacity due to low socioeconomic development and have economies based on rain-fed agriculture. Within these regions we find considerable differences between districts that can be explained only partly by socioeconomic variables with further community and household-scale research required to explain the causes of differences in vulnerability status. Our results highlight that national and regional scale multi-indicator vulnerability assessments are a vital (and often ignored) first step in assessing vulnerability across a large area. These inputs can guide both local-level research and also demonstrate the need for region-specific policies to reduce vulnerability and to enhance drought preparedness within dryland farming communities.     

中国陆地生态系统的碳储量及其空间格局(英文)

地球系统的碳库变化和碳循环过程机制是气候变化成因分析、变化趋势预测、减缓和适应对策的科学基础,受到科技界和国际社会的广泛关注。从20世纪80年代中后期开始,中国学者就开展了陆地生态系统碳循环研究工作,并且在许多研究领域都取得了可喜的进展。本文在回顾中国的陆地生态系统碳循环研究发展历程基础上,重点评述陆地生态系统的碳储量及其空间格局方面的研究成果,评价有关研究的不确定性以及亟待解决的重要科学问题。分析表明,中国的陆地生态系统碳循环研究经过了陆地生态系统碳循环的前期研究、区域尺度生态系统碳循环综合研究、生态系统碳循环过程对环境变化适应性实验研究,以及生态系统碳-氮-水耦合循环及其区域调控管理研究4个主要发展阶段。大多的研究表明,中国陆地生态系统碳储量及其空间格局是温度和降水控制的。全国土壤、森林和草地植被储存约为97.95 —118.93 Pg C;自20世纪70年代中期以来,我国的植树造林和林业管理、草地保护、农作制度改革和保护性耕作等措施发挥了重要的固碳功能,但是各种方法评估的结果仍然存在较大不确定性。今后的研究重点工作是建立天地空一体化碳储量和碳汇动态监测体系、开展生态系统碳-氮-水耦合循环及其区域调控管理的前瞻性研究,定量评价中国区域生态系统的碳收支状况和增汇潜力,评估各种典型生态系统增汇技术的经济效益,为国家尺度的温室气体管理和碳交易机制与政策体系的建立提供可报告、可度量和可核查的科学数据和技术支持。     

极地和青藏高原地区的气候变化及其影响

南极、北极和青藏高原素有地球三极之称,是多个国际计划研究全球变化的关键地区.南北极和青藏高原是全球气候变化的敏感地区,要了解全球气候变化,必须对南北极和青藏高原地区有所研究.在当前全球变暖的大背景下,地球三极地区的气候变化在时间和空间上都是多样的,这些变化对全球大气环流和我国的天气气候也会发生影响.加强对南极、北极和青...     

Ecology of stone-encrusting organisms in the Greenland Sea—a review

The Arctic is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. This area is therefore very suitable for conducting studies focused on the influence of climate change on the biota. Marine communities of coastal waters are particularly sensitive to the current environmental changes (e.g., ice-scour intensity); understanding how community structure changes in response to local perturbations is thus important for providing an insight into how future communities may respond to climate change. This review focuses on the fauna colonizing stones of the Greenland Sea. It summarizes the current state of knowledge about the ecology of organisms inhabiting these substrata across a range of depths, from the intertidal to deeper parts of the continental shelf. In the intertidal zone, no stable or developed assemblage on the rocks is visible. The intertidal zone seems to be fully controlled by physical forces. In contrast, below the intertidal zone a rich and abundant fauna starts to appear on these substrata. Both biotic (e.g., competitive interactions) and abiotic (e.g., ice scour, size of the rock) processes seem to shape stone assemblages in the subtidal zone, yet their influence varies with depth. For example, the abundance of encrusting organisms decreases with depth, as does the intensity of competitive interactions. However, species richness on rocks seems to be in general higher in the deeper parts of the shelf. Possible scenarios of climate change influence on the encrusting biota, gaps in our knowledge about the ecology of stone-dwelling faunal assemblages, as well as possible directions of future research, are discussed.     

地理学视角下城市高温热浪脆弱性评估研究进展

全球气候变化及快速城市化增加了极端天气事件的发生频率,高温热浪作为其中的典型效应,增加了与热相关的健康风险,越来越受到气象学、医学与地理学学者的关注。论文系统梳理了高温热浪的定义,从地理学视角,以空间评估作为切入点,总结分析了高温热浪脆弱性评估中的空间指标、空间制图方法与空间对策等方面的研究进展,指明该领域已从单一视角逐步深入到气象学、医学、地理学等复合学科的交叉研究,地理学作为桥梁将气象学与医学有机结合,为脆弱性评估提供空间指标参数、为制图提供思路与方法,并提供空间对策连接规划和风险预警等实践工作。未来的研究展望包括：空间指标综合各学科研究需要、集成各学科优势进行构建,空间制图在社区小尺度到区域大尺度的耦合机理分析基础上探讨跨区域研究表达方式,空间对策针对不同风险人群采取差异化研究,为城市适应气候变化提供科学依据。     

Adaptation of U.S. Water Management to Climate and Environmental Change

This study addresses the current status of U.S. water resource management adaptation at the river basin scale. Four large basins, the Colorado, Platte, and Delaware rivers, as well as the Everglades Basin were examined to gain a diverse national perspective. The research program utilized qualitative methods, including observation, interviews, and questionnaires, to survey diverse basin management participants. Fifty-four participants in the case basins were interviewed on their perceptions and actions concerning the effects of climate variability and change. The research objective was to compare the cases in an adaptation assessment. Water decision makers in the United States make basin resource decisions based on a local physical and sociocultural environment. Therefore, although climate change is a global hazard, the characteristic local responses are unique for each of the study basins. The most employed adaptation method currently cited is a paradigm shift from command and control of basin resources to adaptable, flexible, no-regrets strategies, effective as responses to a wide array of potential effects from global environmental change.     

A review of snow manipulation experiments in Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems

Snow cover is one of the most important factors controlling microclimate and plant growing conditions for Arctic and alpine ecosystems. Climate change is altering snowfall regimes, which in turn influences snow cover and ultimately tundra plant communities. The interest in winter climate change and the number of experiments exploring the responses of alpine and Arctic ecosystems to changes in snow cover have been growing in recent years, but their outcomes are difficult to summarize because of the large variability in manipulation approaches, extents and measured response variables. In this review, we (1) compile the ecological publications on snow manipulation experiments, (2) classify the studies according to the climate scenarios they simulate and response variables they measure, (3) discuss the methods applied to manipulate snow cover, and (4) analyse and generalize the response in phenology, productivity and community composition by means of a meta-analysis. This meta-analysis shows that flowering phenology responded strongly to changes in the timing of snowmelt. The least responsive group of species were graminoids; however, they did show a decrease in productivity and abundance with experimentally increased snow covers. The species group with the greatest phenological response to snowmelt changes were the dwarf shrubs. Their abundance also increased in most long-term snow fence experiments, whereas species richness generally declined. We conclude that snow manipulation experiments can improve our understanding of recently observed ecosystem changes, and are an important component of climate change research.     

近30年北极海冰异常变化趋势

在过去30年间,北极气候发生了前所未有的异常变化,北极海冰变化更是经历了令人瞩目的、从平缓到突变的缩减过程,因此,北冰洋及其海冰的研究得到广泛的重视。综述当前国内外有关北极海冰快速变化的研究工作,对这些大气的现场观测和卫星遥感资料的分析,以及一些全球和区域气候模拟的结果,基本上一致地指出了近3O年来北极海冰的快速衰减趋势,尤其是夏季北极海冰正以每lO年超过10％的变化幅度快速减少。从海冰的基本物理特征、与大气海洋相互作用的物理过程、及其对全球和北极气候变化的响应和反馈机制,研究形成这种快速变化的因子--海表面气温增暖,太平洋与大西洋人流的热盐性质变化,以及大气环流模态的影响等。