1994-2006年长江三角洲和东北平原酸性气体浓度变化

 利用长江三角洲和东北平原地区大气本底站的二氧化硫（SO2）和氮氧化物（NOx）历史资料和近期取得的观测数据,探讨两个地区人为排放对这些气候相关酸性气体的不同贡献。从两种酸性气体过去和现在的浓度水平,估算了它们在两个地区的增长率,比较了NOx与SO2比值的不同变化趋势。结果表明,早在20世纪90年代中期,长江三角洲酸性气体污染水平已经较高,其后主要是NOx浓度显著升高,从而使该地区成为硫和氮污染并重的地区;东北平原酸性气体过去浓度很低,但这些气体以很高的速率增长,虽然目前浓度水平仍然比较低,但未来形势不容乐观。     

辽宁农村代表区域降水离子组成及与气态污染物相关性

对辽宁农村代表区域站点——辽中县马龙村观测站2007年2月至2008年1月酸雨、气态污染物浓度观测资料进行了研究。结果表明：辽中站降水的化学组成阴离子主要为SO4^2-和NO3-阳离子主要为NH4和Ca2＋,SO4^2-／NO3-比值为2．9．Na＋／Cl-比值较大,大于1。各种离子浓度冬春季高,夏秋季较低,表明研究区域降水酸化与污染关系不显著。实测的9种主要阴离子、阳离子总浓度比（∑阴离子／∑阳离子）与降水pH值相关性不高,表明目前酸雨研究观测的主要9种阴阳离子不能完全包括降水中的离子组成。降水酸性与近地面污染气体浓度相关各异,pH与NOx、CO、NO2和O3浓度有较明显的负相关,与SO2浓度负相关不明显;降水pH值与颗粒物等碱性污染物浓度正相关明显。降水中主要致酸离子SO4^2-和NO3-的浓度与相应酸性气体污染物SO2和NOx近地面浓度的相关不明显。     

珠江三角洲城市群污染综合指数预报的模式方法

应用全二阶矩表示的商斯烟团模式,重点引入烟团的合并与分解及各种清除过程,并利用广州热带模式（GZTM）所提供的华南地区细网格的三维数字化流场,来计算污染物浓度的长期变化。具体先模拟计算SO2、NOx、TSP的地面浓度日变化,通过求平均得到每种污染物的日均浓度,并和对应的污染物的日均浓度二级标准比较,得到每种污染物的污染指数Pi,最后求和得出污染综合指数P,从而对珠江三角洲地区的污染综合指数作出预报。     

近地面O3变化化学反应机理的数值研究

利用中尺度气象模式（MM5）及区域化学模式（RADM）对中国地区近地面O3变化化学反应机理进行了数值模拟研究。主要研究了近地面O3变化与其主要前体物NMHC（非甲烷烃）、NOx、CO等之间复杂相互作用关系。主要结论为:（1） 污染地区近地面O3变化主要受光化学作用控制;而清洁地区地面O3变化主要受大气背景O3浓度影响。（2）NMHC和NOx的变化对HO2和OH自由基的影响是十分复杂的,O3的反馈作用对自由基的影响是不可忽视的。（3）在高NOx污染地区的地面上空可能出现高O3污染。（4）在O3光化学反应机理中同样存在线性相关关系。     

脱硝技术与天然气应用情景下京津冀地区空气质量模拟评估

针对京津冀地区主要大气污染物NOx（氮氧化物）和PM2.5（大气中粒径小于或等于2.5μm的颗粒物）,应用柴油车尾气净化技术及中小锅炉烟气脱硝技术,并根据2015年和2030年我国能源规划,设计3种技术应用情景,采用WRF-CAMx耦合模式,对京津冀地区大气中NOx和PM2.5进行了应用情景模拟。结果表明,单独应用柴油车尾气净化技术后（方案1）,北京、天津地区大气中的NOx浓度降低幅度达20%,河北地区降低5%;PM2.5的浓度降低幅度约10%;应用柴油车尾气净化技术和2015年能源规划情景（方案2）,京津冀地区大气中NOx和PM2.5浓度的降低幅度均超过20%;应用柴油车尾气净化技术和2030年能源规划情景（方案3）,该地区NOx浓度降低幅度与之相当,PM2.5浓度降低幅度超过30%。可见脱硝技术和清洁能源利用的有效性依赖于其应用比例。二次气粒转化的化学过程形成的硝酸盐、硫酸盐和铵盐对该地区空气中PM2.5浓度的贡献很大,冬、春、秋季硝酸盐最大贡献高达60%,夏、秋季硫酸盐最大贡献超过70%,铵盐四季最大贡献约25%。这说明PM2.5的主要前体物NOx、SO2、NH3、VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds)、CO等均大幅度削减才能有效降低该地区空气中PM2.5浓度。     

山东省大气污染时空分布特征分析

通过分析山东省近6a来大气中污染物的浓度变化,发现影响山东省空气质量的主要污染物是颗粒物（PM2.5和PM10）,山东省PM2.5年平均浓度均超过国家规定的轻污染标准10%以上,PM10年平均浓度基本接近轻污染标准值,其余四种污染物（SO2、CO、O3和NO2）浓度均低于轻污染规定标准,因此山东省大气污染治理的重点是减少颗粒物。分析污染物浓度时间变化发现：11—1月山东大气污染最严重,6—9月污染较轻;济南周四污染相对最轻,周六到周一污染较重;每日15—17时是空气质量最好的时段。分析污染物浓度空间分布发现：O3浓度半岛地区较其他地区高;SO2浓度鲁中地区较高;CO浓度鲁西北和鲁中较高;NO2、PM10和PM2.5浓度分布基本一致,除半岛地区外,其他地区均维持较高污染物浓度。     

南京市大气细颗粒物化学成分分析

为了解南京大气细粒子的污染水平和污染特征,在南京市中心鼓楼和北郊南京信息工程大学校内进行了连续1a、每季度5d的大气气溶胶同步采样。用称重法、离子色谱法和电感耦合等离子质谱法分别测得细颗粒物的质量浓度、水溶性离子和元素组成。结果表明,南京地区PM2.1污染比较严重,水溶性离子是细粒子的重要组分,所测6种离子质量浓度总和分别占市区和北郊PM2.1的46.99％、42.32％。PM2.1中的各离子最高浓度都出现在冬季。NH^＋4与SO^2-4的相关性好,可能主要以（NH4）2SO4形式存在。温度对SOR和NOR的影响显著,温度升高时SOR值增大而NOR显著减小。通过计算NO^-3与SO^2-4的质量比发现,南京市SO2和NOx主要来自于固定源（如煤的燃烧）。分析细颗粒物中元素含量和富集因子结果表明,Pb、As、Zn、Hg、Cu、Cr、Ni元素的人为污染较明显,且北郊的污染重于市区。比较PM2.1和PM3.3中的离子成分发现,SO^2-4、NH^＋4在PM2.1中占据绝对优势,F^-、Cl^-、NO^-2、NO^-3等不在细粒子中占明显优势。从元素组成来看,Pb、Zn在PM2.1细粒子中含量显著,而Ca、Mg、Na等在粗粒子中富集。     

石家庄市主要大气污染物的数值预报

应用CAPPS城市大气污染潜势和污染指数预报系统，对石家庄市主要大气污染物（SO2，NOX，TSP）的污染指数（API）进行模拟分析，结果表明，用CAPPS作城市大气污染预报时，应加入污染物排放的时间系数（Ti)订正和经验系数（Ki)订正，对北方城市而言，还须加入扬尘百分率（F）订正，用加入Ti,Ki和F订正后的CAPPS预报系统，对石家庄市大气污染物（SO2，NOx,TSP)进行模拟，结果SO2，NOx,TSP三种污染物的预报值与其监测值的相关系数分别提高到0．951，0．854和0．880。     

北京城区大气边界层空气污染特征观测研究

2001年1～3月共分3期,在北京城市地区大气边界层进行了大气化学和气象现埸观测.结果表明北京城市低层大气中主要的气体污染物是NOx,其次为SO2;各高度SO2和NOx之间的关系有较好的一致性,NOx大约为SO2浓度的2倍或2倍以上;污染源排放是造成北京城市低层大气空气污染严重与否的主要原因之一;同一季节中空气污染状况很大程度上取决于天气条件;NO2/NO和NO之间有着较好的负幂指数相关关系;近地层不同高度和不同地点观测到的大气污染物随时间变化趋势有较好的一致性.     

地形对太原市污染物稀释扩散影响的模拟试验

文中利用CAPPS模式进行了模拟试验 ,试图研究在不同环流背景下 ,太原附近簸箕型地形对该地主要污染物(SO2 ,NOx,PM10 )稀释扩散的影响。结果表明 :采用仿真模式地形 ,局地环流背景下 ,簸箕型地形阻碍了主要污染物的稀释和扩散 ,加剧近地层空气的污染 ;大尺度环流背景下 ,且地面为偏南风或偏东风时 ,簸箕型地形有助于主要污染物的稀释和扩散 ,SO2 ,NOx,PM10 浓度减小 ,地面为偏北风或偏西风且风速≥ 5m /s时 ,SO2 ,NOx 浓度减小 ,PM10 浓度剧增。此外 ,还探讨了簸箕型地形对太原市主要污染物稀释扩散作用的机制 ,采用仿真模式地形 ,大尺度环流背景时 ,簸箕型地形对垂直运动具有增幅作用 ,且地形越高 ,增幅越明显。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959–2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s~(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

LOW-FREQUENCY CIRCULATION AND EXTENDED-RANGE FORECAST IN CONNECTION WITH AUTUMN EXTREME HEAVY RAINFALL PROCESS IN HAINAN

Observed daily precipitation data from the National Meteorological Observatory in Hainan province and daily data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis-2 dataset from 1981 to 2014 are used to analyze the relationship between Hainan extreme heavy rainfall processes in autumn (referred to as EHRPs) and 10–30 d low-frequency circulation. Based on the key low-frequency signals and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) model forecasting products, a dynamical-statistical method is established for the extended-range forecast of EHRPs. The results suggest that EHRPs have a close relationship with the 10–30 d low-frequency oscillation of 850 hPa zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north, and that they basically occur during the trough phase of the low-frequency oscillation of zonal wind. The latitudinal propagation of the low-frequency wave train in the middle-high latitudes and the meridional propagation of the low-frequency wave train along the coast of East Asia contribute to the ‘north high (cold), south low (warm)’ pattern near Hainan Island, which results in the zonal wind over Hainan Island and to its north reaching its trough, consequently leading to EHRPs. Considering the link between low-frequency circulation and EHRPs, a low-frequency wave train index (LWTI) is defined and adopted to forecast EHRPs by using NCEP CFSv2 forecasting products. EHRPs are predicted to occur during peak phases of LWTI with value larger than 1 for three or more consecutive forecast days. Hindcast experiments for EHRPs in 2015–2016 indicate that EHRPs can be predicted 8–24 d in advance, with an average period of validity of 16.7 d.     

AN ATTRIBUTION ANALYSIS OF CHANGES IN POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE BEIJING–TIANJIN–HEBEI REGION UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Based on the measurements obtained at 64 national meteorological stations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region between 1970 and 2013, the potential evapotranspiration (ET0) in this region was estimated using the Penman–Monteith equation and its sensitivity to maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), wind speed (Vw), net radiation (Rn) and water vapor pressure (Pwv) was analyzed, respectively. The results are shown as follows. (1) The climatic elements in the BTH region underwent significant changes in the study period. Vw and Rn decreased significantly, whereas Tmin, Tmax and Pwv increased considerably. (2) In the BTH region, ET0 also exhibited a significant decreasing trend, and the sensitivity of ET0 to the climatic elements exhibited seasonal characteristics. Of all the climatic elements, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv in the fall and winter and Rn in the spring and summer. On the annual scale, ET0 was most sensitive to Pwv, followed by Rn, Vw, Tmax and Tmin. In addition, the sensitivity coefficient of ET0 with respect to Pwv had a negative value for all the areas, indicating that increases in Pwv can prevent ET0 from increasing. (3) The sensitivity of ET0 to Tmin and Tmax was significantly lower than its sensitivity to other climatic elements. However, increases in temperature can lead to changes in Pwv and Rn. The temperature should be considered the key intrinsic climatic element that has caused the "evaporation paradox" phenomenon in the BTH region.     

Revisiting the Concentration Observations and Source Apportionment of Atmospheric Ammonia

正While China’s Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on particulate matter since 2013 has reduced sulfate significantly, aerosol ammonium nitrate remains high in East China. As the high nitrate abundances are strongly linked with ammonia, reducing ammonia emissions is becoming increasingly important to improve the air quality of China. Although satellite data provide evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia concentrations over major agricultural regions, long-term surface observation of ammonia concentrations are sparse. In addition, there is still no consensus on