Are We There Yet? NSW local governments’ progress on climate change

Local governments are responding to top-down policy initiatives from both federal and State governments to reduce emissions, and adapt to any potential impacts of climate change. Although climate change is clearly a global problem, many of the solutions will be implemented at the local level. To explore this issue, the aim of this research was to examine regional variation in climate change response across New South Wales (NSW). To this end, between September 2010 and September 2011, we reviewed publicly available council and regional documentations for all NSW councils. The indicators of response examined were based on the NSW Greenhouse Plan (2005). These were awareness-raising, emissions reduction and adaptation planning. It was found that councils were undertaking many practical projects to fulfil the goals of this plan. As a result, they are abating significant quantities of emissions. Adaptation is progressing through the development of risk-based climate change adaptation plans. Councils are addressing particular areas of management, such as water management, assisted by guidelines which incorporate consideration for climate change as part of best practice. While overall responses to this threat are progressing, a distinct urban bias in action has been observed, due to biases in policy and funding arrangements.     

Public Targets,Private Choices: Urban Climate Governance in the Pacific Northwest

A survey of local governments participating in two urban climate change programs is presented to determine the mechanisms used to reach emissions reduction goals and the motivations for participation. Results support previous research that shows a preference for policies that rely on changes in individual behavior, while also providing new insights into how mitigation responsibilities are distributed among the public and private sector and the relative importance of scientific consensus, economic incentives, and federal inaction on local government justification for climate-related policies. The article concludes with a discussion of urban climate governance as part of a wider system of neoliberal climate governance.     

Neoliberalism, climate governance and the scalar politics of EU emissions trading

The neoliberalisation of international climate policy through devices such as emissions trading has led to a significant restructuring of governance competencies between supranational, national and non-state actors. This article explores the implications of this restructuring for the scalar politics of climate governance by examining the European Union emissions trading scheme, the world's largest multi-state carbon-trading scheme. Analysis shows that although the member states were prepared to accede to a common legal framework for emissions trading, its implementation has been characterised by intense sovereignty disputes over emissions allowances. The article concludes by reflecting on the scalar politics of international climate governance in an unevenly regulated and competitive world.     

国际贸易中的隐含碳排放研究综述

通过总结最近国际上关于贸易隐含碳排放的研究进展,指出国际贸易对国家及全球的温室气体排放具有重要的影响。传统的基于领土范围的CO2排放统计方法极易歪曲一国CO2排放的真实情况,不仅会引起发达国家对发展中国家＂碳泄漏＂现象的发生,也会间接地导致全球CO2排放的增加。作为发展中国家的中国,由于对外贸易的快速发展及较高的能耗水平,事实上为国外,尤其为发达国家排放了数量巨大的CO2。中国不是其碳排放的唯一责任方。在未来的气候变化谈判中,国际贸易对国家及全球CO2排放的影响应被高度重视;发达国家应该在减少温室气体排放方面继续承担主导作用,同时也应该加大对发展中国家的先进生产技术的转让和财政支持;中国等发展中国家除了提高自身的生产效率和能源利用效率外,还应加强对贸易中隐含碳排放的研究,以可靠有利的数据为国家争取更大的发展空间。     

COMMODIFYING THE ATMOSPHERE: ‘PENNIES FROM HEAVEN’*?

The atmosphere may be the most valuable resource on Earth and is worth orders of magnitude more to society than it costs as a hazard. However, the atmosphere, and information about the atmosphere, are increasingly being transformed from being considered as part of a global commons to being conceived of as a global commodity to be bought and sold. There are three basic types of atmospheric commodity: firstly, the material atmosphere itself; secondly, the physical properties of the atmosphere; and thirdly, data or information or predictions about the atmosphere. The global expenditure on national meteorological and climatological services and research has now been surpassed by the value of new economic instruments such as weather derivatives and climate emissions trading. Atmospheric scientists, climatologists and physical geographers need to be critically aware of what the consequences, both positive and negative, of these developments for science and society might be. This is particularly the case as climate change is increasingly providing new discourses for companies and governments to exploit as the atmosphere becomes a tradable green resource. This paper attempts to construct an initial critical framework of analysis drawing from broader literatures on the commodification of nature.     

Progress in China’s climate change study in the 20th century

IPCC (2001) pointed out that the earth's climate was undergoing a remarkable change with characteristics of global warming over the past 100 years. The latest research showed that the global mean surface temperature has increased by about 0.6 oC since 1861. It is very likely that the last 20 years in the 20th century was the warmest decades. The Northern Hemisphere temperatures in the 20th century appeared to have been unprecedented during the past millennium. The research also indicates th…     

20世纪中国气候变化研究

Studies on the 20th century climate change in China have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century,climate in China has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 °C.More reliable results for the latter part of the 20th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest China,North China and Northeast China,and the warming in winter is most significant.Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over China in the past half century,regional differences are very distinct.In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,precipitation increased,while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased.Studies suggest that climate change in China seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO,PDO,and the others,but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions,and land use.The future climate change studies in China seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of China's climate change and its main causes,since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.     

Progress in China’s climate change study in the 20th century

Studies on the 20th century climate change in China have revealed that under the background of global warming over the past century, climate in China has also experienced significant change with mean annual temperature increased by about 0.5 °C. More reliable results for the latter part of the 20th century indicate that the largest warming occurred in Northwest China, North China and Northeast China, and the warming in winter is most significant. Although no obvious increase or decrease trends were detected for mean precipitation over China in the past half century, regional differences are very distinct. In the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, precipitation increased, while that in the Yellow River Basin markedly decreased. Studies suggest that climate change in China seems to be related not only with the internal factors such as ENSO, PDO, and the others, but also with the anthropogenic effects such as greenhouse gas emissions, and land use. The future climate change studies in China seem to be important in narrowing understanding the nature of China’s climate change and its main causes, since it is significant for projection and for impact assessment of climate change in the future.     

中国内陆热带地区近40年气候变化特征

用西双版纳6个气象站40余年观测资料,探讨中国内陆热带地区气候变化特征及趋势。结果表明:西双版纳地区的平均气温、平均最低气温、平均最高气温总体上呈逐年增暖的趋势,其中平均气温上升率0.016 5～0.033 4℃/a,平均最低气温上升率0.008 6～0.038 7℃/a,平均最高气温上升率-0.001 4～0.018 6℃/a;降水长期变化特征则较复杂,规律不如气温明显,但总体趋势减少,年降水量变化主要决定于雨季降水量变化;相对湿度呈现逐年降低趋势。说明该地区气候向干热型转变。     

Managing climate change scenarios for societal impact studies

Dealing with the potential consequences of climate change on society requires scenarios that accurately project future climate. Uncertainties about future greenhouse gas emissions, climate sensitivity to radiative forcing, and limits to simulating a complex system constrain this objective. This paper reviews literature outlining the inherent challenges of creating future climate scenarios from general circulation models; it examines methods used to improve their interpretation and use; and it explores approaches taken to recognize and address uncertainty when investigating interactions between climate and society.     

小岛国联盟在国际气候行动格局中的地位分析

温室气体减排与配额已经成为各国、各政治实体谈判与争论的焦点。小岛国联盟(AOSIS)由于地理位置因素,对气候变化有较高的脆弱性,在气候谈判中往往以最大受害者的身份出现,对国际气候谈判进程有着特别的影响。首先对小岛国联盟的地理位置、经济、人口、面积等基本情况进行了分析,并采用CDIAC 1950～2009年各国的碳排放数据以及Word Bank提供的人口和GDP数据,对小岛国联盟的排放总量、人均排放量、历史累计人均排放量、排放强度以及碳排放密度等指标进行了评估,并与全球以及美国、法国、日本、中国、印度和南非六国的排放情况进行了比较,在此基础上对小岛国联盟在气候变化行动格局中的地位进行了分析。     

Assessing Climate Change in the Contiguous United States Using a Modified Thornthwaite Climate Classification Scheme

Climate change across the contiguous United States is investigated using a modified version of Thornthwaite's climate classification scheme. This approach allows both moisture and thermal conditions to be examined simultaneously for a better assessment of multivariate climate change. Changes in area of different climate types over time is determined using the climate year approach and the spatial nature of climate change is examined by computing climate types based on averages from three thirty-year periods over the twentieth century. Over the study period from 1895 to 2005, statistically significant changes in areal coverage of different climate types have occurred. In the eastern half of the country, climate divisions have become wetter and changed to moister climate categories. The most prominent change has occurred in the Deep South, where the climate has changed to both a lower thermal category and a wetter moisture category. Much of the country has experienced positive temperature trends, but only climate divisions in the Southwest and Upper Midwest show changes to higher thermal categories.     

植物稳定同位素研究进展与展望

植物稳定同位素是近年来在地理学、生态学研究中逐步广泛应用的研究手段, 具有综合长 期生物地球化学过程和联系不同系统成分的特点, 国际上已经展开了较为广泛的应用, 国内也有 相关研究。本文对国内外植物C、H、O 稳定同位素研究的回顾, 显示植物稳定同位素与环境因子, 如气温、湿度、降水、环境稳定同位素组成等密切相关。目前植物稳定同位素技术主要应用于历史 时期环境气候的重建, 恢复大气CO₂ 同位素组成以及CO₂ 浓度的变化趋势。本文根据植物稳定同 位素的特点和研究基础, 认为植物稳定同位素方法不仅可以用来重建历史时期气候, 而且在区域 环境差异及其生态效应研究上有着重要应用前景。     

Black gold to green gold: regional energy policy and the rehabilitation of coal in response to climate change

Energy production has come under increasing scrutiny as concerns about energy security and climate change have risen. In the UK changes in government structure and privatisation of the electricity industry have led to the emergence of multi-level governance. This means that decisions on how to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity-generating sector should no longer be solely a national policy decision. Previous studies have sought to explore how renewable energy may develop under multi-level governance, but this paper pays attention to a traditional fossil fuel source, coal, which is still an important means of electricity generation. Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel and advocates argue that carbon capture and storage techniques could make coal 'clean', paving the way for a long-term, secure and low emission way to produce energy. This study focuses on the Yorkshire and Humber Region, which has had a long association with coal mining and looks at the implications of this as the region seeks to develop a climate change action plan and an energy strategy within the new regional governance structures. The paper argues that the regional networks developed to address climate change are influenced by existing social power structures and alliances. The region as a territorial structure becomes a useful device in promoting national priorities.     

中国低碳治理的制约因素和相应对策

作为全球碳排放大国,中国低碳治理的发展方向对全球气候变化有深远的影响,值得深入研究。通过中国低碳治理的制约因素及其成因的分析,提出地方政府行为是中国低碳治理的主要制约因素。这主要表现在地方政府鼓励不符合低碳发展的粗放式经济增长和城市开发及地方政府制定与执行低碳政策的积极性不高。而地方政府行为背后是各种制度环境因素。因此,改善中国低碳治理需要从制度改革入手。对制度改革提出3个建议：① 强化节能目标责任制;② 缓和地方政府过于强烈的发展意愿;③ 加强公民参与低碳治理。     

气候保护及其对社会经济影响的模拟研究

对国际上气候变化与应对气候变化的气候保护经济影响模拟研究状况进行了讨论,认为气候保护研究应该侧重模拟分析;评价了在IPCC第四次评估报告中使用的排放情景专门报告中依赖的6个模型特点,指出IPCC的SRES模型不仅忽视了内生技术进步和国际GDP溢出,而且是缺少反映人类应对行为的被动型模型,现在需要发展主动型模型。还讨论了我国面对气候变化与应对气候变化的气候保护模拟研究的不足,认为我国过分依赖适应气候变化分析的统计学模型,而不是适合气候保护研究的动力学模型。建议开展经济动力学模型、非线性CGE模型和基于自主体的模拟模型研究,提出全球气候保护的中国方案。本文介绍了LRICE模型框架,该模型的特点是干中学的技术进步,能反映发展中国家通过技术进步减少二氧化碳排放的潜力,更接近真实情况。     

Trends in the near-zero range of the minimum air-temperature distribution

This study estimated the trends in the number of days that fall within the near-zero (0?°C) range of the temperature continuum. This narrow range has importance for potential transportation hazards and freeze-thaw cycles. While the tails of the air-temperature distribution and their trends often are closely examined under the climate change context, the frequency and trend of other portions of the air-temperature distribution can be equally important, as many societal impacts are caused by events in the non-tail region, such as near-zero °C temperatures (NZT). Examining the trend of the number of NZT days over the conterminous USA for the period of 1948–1949 through 2010–2011, we found three distinct spatial clusters. The most distinctive spatial clusters are found along the West Coast (positive temperature trends leading to a decrease in NZT days), the High Plains and Northern Rockies (positive temperature trends leading to an increase in NZT days), and the southeastern USA (negative temperature trends leading to an increase in NZT days). While trends in the number of NZT days are linked to changes in mean minimum air temperature, increasing minimum temperature leads to a positive trend at NZT days only at some locations.     

Hot Air: University Climate Action Plans and Disarticulated Federalism

Individual states and academic institutions have taken leadership on climate change policy in the United States. Without unified national policy, a patchwork of state policies fosters geographic variation among climate action plans (CAPs) for American College and Universities Presidents’ Climate Commitment signatories. Correlation among indexes rating state climate policy and signatory CAPs and spatial analysis indicate that states with aggressive climate policy foster aggressive policy within their academies. Reflection on the national scale suggests that although state policies help combat climate change, they could be more significant if articulated within a more comprehensive national policy.     

Climatological characteristics of the tropics in China: climate classification schemes between German scientists and Huang Bingwei

Reviewing some important German scientists who have developed climatic regionalization schemes either on a global or Chinese scale, their various definitions of the tropical climate characteristics in China are discussed and compared with Huang Bingwei's climate classification scheme and the identification of the tropical climate therein. It can be seen that, due to different methodological approaches of the climatic regionalization schemes, the definitions of the tropics vary and hence also their spatial distribution in China. However, it is found that the tropical climate type occupies only a peripheral part of southern China, though it firmly represents a distinctive type of climate that is supsequently associated with a great economic importance for China. As such, the tropical climate type was mostly identified with its agro-climatological significance, that is by giving favourable growing conditions all-year round for perennial crops with a great heat demand. Tropical climate is, hence, conventionally regarded to be governed by all-year round summer conditions "where winter never comes".     

试论未来极端气候事件发展趋势的不确定性

极端气候事件是在一定时间尺度上发生的不同于气候系统平均状态的气候突变.早第三纪的最热事件（PETM）,第四纪中国黄土高原古土壤S4、S5记录的暖湿事件,砂黄土L9、L15记录的干冷事件等都是在轨道时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件.末次冰消期的YD冷事件、全新世9次冷事件是在千—百年尺度上发生的极端气候事件.这些极端气候事件出现于地球气候系统不同的冷暖背景下,它们的成因机制和表现形式有很多不确定性.20世纪以来发生的干旱、洪水、飓风、雪灾、沙尘暴等极端气候事件,无法用持续增加的温室气体的变化来解释.关于极端气候事件发生频率和强度随＂全球变暖＂而增加的结论也存在一定程度的不确定性.因此,简单地将现代极端气候事件统统归因于＂气候变暖＂既不科学也不合理.深入研究各个时间尺度上发生的极端气候事件的波动性、周期性和不确定性特征,有助于科学预测未来气候变化背景下极端气候事件的发展趋势.