河南省棉花产量的灰色-马尔柯夫预测模型

灰色－马尔柯夫预测模型对波动较大序列比较适合，根据该组合模型，用ＧＭ（１，１）灰色模型预测河南省棉花单产，再用马尔柯夫模型转移概率预测系统未来发展方向和修正预报产量。经拟合和预报，效果较好。     

河南省棉花产量的灰色—马尔柯夫预测模型

灰色－马尔林柯夫预测模型对波动较大序列比较适合，根据该组合模型，用ＧＭ（１，１）灰色模型预测河南省棉花单产，再用马尔柯夫模型转换概率预测系统未来发展方向和修正预报产量。经拟合和预报，效果较好。     

灰色气象干涉因子GM（1,1）耦合模型的应用

采用灰色ＧＭ（１，１）模型与气象干涉因子双重筛选逐步回归模型综合构成的灰色气象干涉因子ＧＭ（１，１）耦合模型，对川西阿坝州１９７７－１９９４年牲畜死亡率的时间序列进行了分析，并对当地和相邻的青海果洛州１９９３－１９９４年的牲畜死亡率进行预测检验，取得了令人满意的结果。     

石河子初霜冻马尔柯夫预测模型及应用

利用马尔柯夫方法,对霜冻出现日期进行预测,本方法克服资料序列短,随机波动性大的弊端。结果表明：预报结果与实际情况基本相符,有一定的实用价值。     

用马尔柯夫链做预报的简易算法

马尔柯夫链是时间离散，状态离散的随机时间序列，具有无后效性的特点。它依据各状态之间的转移概率来进行预测，而且仅仅依赖于前一时间的状态,所以只要统计出某一时间出现某种状态的条件下，下个时间出现各种状态的条件概率，就可以用它前一时间的状态预报下一时间的状态。因此，人们常用马尔柯夫方法解决天气预报、农业气象预报、物候预报、病虫害等随机波动较大的预测问题，而且准确性较好。但在实际应用时，特别是在资料序列较长、状态划分较多时，需要做大量的计算，占用很多时间，而且在大量的计算过程中往往容易出错，以致影响预报…     

用灰色—马尔柯夫模型预报春播期低温阴雨天气

介绍了灰色－马尔柯夫模型,并以广西防城区１９９８年春播期低温阴雨预报为实例,探讨了该法在长期天气预报中的应用。     

农作物产量预报的马尔柯夫链方法

马尔柯夫过程是统计数学中一类重要的随机过程,时间离散、状态离散的马尔柯夫过程称为马尔柯夫链,它被广泛应用于晴雨、干旱等灾害天气的出现和持续以及天气形势转变的预报。 众所周知,在农作物产量中隐含着由于天气气候的随机变化而产生的产量波动,我们     

用转移概率和指标条件概率作逐日睛雨预报

我们把十月份的逐日晴雨序列看成马尔柯夫链,即认为某日的晴雨仅仅依赖于前一日的晴雨状况。利用马尔柯夫链的无后效性,计算出各种状态下的转移概率。如果单纯地用这种转移概率来做预报,效果是不理想的。为此我们对不同的起始状态进行分类,求出各类約晴雨指标条件概率,将它与转移概率结合起来判別逐日晴雨,其可靠程度有所提高。     

山东省气候年型预测与作物布局决策研究

利用灰色预测中的ＧＭ（１，１）模型，对温度，降水分别进行数列预测和灾变预测，然后通过对比分析得到预测年度温度与降水的季节分布。根据预测的年型特点，结合山东省不同气候年型下作物布局的科研成果，提出预测年度的山东省作物优化布局意见和建议，为农业生产服务。     

宿州春烟栽培生态气候条件及最佳移栽期预报

通过春烟栽培的生态气候条件分析,指出了制约宿州市春烟高产优质栽培的关键是准确把握和预报最佳移栽期。给出了预测春烟最佳移栽期的三种方法——农业气候学方法、农业气象学方法、数理统计预报方法。通过对三种方法的使用分析,得出最有效的方法是灰色-马尔柯夫链相结合的数理统计预报方法,并给出了该方法的建模过程和应用实例,经历史拟合检验,误差≤3天的准确率达95．5％,≤2天的准确率达86．4％,≤1天的准确率为68．2％,完全吻合率达54．5％。2002年、2003年试报,准确程度分别为完全吻合和相差1天,实用效果非常好。     

气溶胶光学厚度谱特征判断粒子大小方法初探

当气溶胶谱满足Junge分布时,Angstrom指数 (α) 可以准确地描述粒子大小,但真实大气气溶胶很少完全满足这一条件,仅用α判断粒子大小会有较大出入。基于北京、香河、兴隆、太湖4个Aeronet观测站21世纪以来各站历时都超过1年的气溶胶光学厚度资料,获得5511组lnτ与lnλ的二次拟合参数a₂,a₁,尝试找到一种结合α,a₂,a₁判断粒子大小的方法。结果表明:当气溶胶为粗粒子时 (V_fine/V_total＜0.2),α均小于0.75,仅用α就可以较好地判断粒子大小,但当气溶胶以细粒子为主时 (V_fine/V_total＞0.7),该方法会有较大出入,此时a₂,a₁可以有效地辅助α判断粒子大小,α＞0.75,a₂＜-0.5或a₂＜-0.5,a₁＜-1.0是较好的判据。此外,分析发现国外研究提出的用a₂-a₁判断粒子大小的方法效果并不理想,尤其在1＜a₂-a₁＜2的情况下,粒子的组成有多种可能。     

Estimating the Asian radon flux density and its latitudinal gradient in winter using ground-based radon observations at Sado Island

Terrestrial radon-222 flux density for the Asian continent, integrated over distances of 4500 km, is estimated in two 20° latitudinal bands centred on 48.8°N and 63.2°N. The evaluation is based on three years of wintertime radon measurements at Sado Island, Japan, together with meteorological and trajectory information. A selection of 18% of observations are suitable for evaluation of an analytical expression for the continental surface flux. Various meteorological assumptions are discussed; it is found that there is a substantial effect of increased complexity of the formulation on the flux estimates obtained. The distribution of spatially integrated radon flux over the Asian landmass is reported for the first time. Expressed as geometric means and 1σ-ranges, estimated fluxes are 14.1 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹ (1σ-range: 18 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹) and 8.4 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹ (1σ-range: 10 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹) for the lower and higher latitude bands. These results constitute an annual minimum in flux densities for these regions, and are higher than previously reported. The existence of a latitudinal gradient in the continental radon source function is confirmed; the present estimate for Asia (−0.39 mBq m⁻² s⁻¹ per degree of latitude) is in agreement with the northern hemisphere terrestrial radon flux gradient proposed previously.     

夏季南海区域赤道西风与热带扰动的相互作用

本文分析了1973—1984年6—9月南海地区赤道西风与热带扰动的活动情况,结果表明,赤道西风对热带扰动的发生发展有一定的贡献,而热带扰动的发展又反过来使其南侧的赤道西风进一步增强,赤道西风的增强往往导致热带扰动移向的改变。这种相互作用过程,存在着能量的输送。本文参照水平运动方程和涡度方程,推导得赤道西风变化率方程,说明局地赤道西风变化主要取决于总能量和涡动的输送。分析还发现,赤道西风变化率与赤道西风值有超前相关关系,借此可估计赤道西风和热带扰动的演变趋势。      

Free allocation in the 3rd EU ETS period: assessing two manufacturing sectors

This article provides an analysis of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and the harmonized benchmark-based allocation procedures by comparing two energy-intensive sectors with activities in three Member States. These sectors include the cement industry (CEI) and the pulp and paper industry (PPI) in the UK, Sweden, and France. Our results show that the new procedures are better suited for the more homogeneous CEI, in which the outcome of stricter allocation of emissions allowances is consistent between Member States. For the more heterogeneous PPI – in terms of its product portfolios, technical infrastructures, and fuel mixes – the allocation procedures lead to diverse outcomes. It is the lack of product benchmark curves, and the alternative use of benchmark values that are biased towards a fossil fuel-mix and are based on specific energy use rather than emission intensity, which leads to allocations to the PPI that do not represent the average performance of the top 10% of GHG-efficient installations. Another matter is that grandfathering is still present via the historically based production volumes. How to deal with structural change and provisions regarding capacity reductions and partial cessation is an issue that is highly relevant for the PPI but less so for the CEI.

Policy relevance

After an unprecedented amount of consultation with industrial associations and other stakeholders, a harmonized benchmark-based allocation methodology was introduced in the third trading period of the EU ETS. Establishing a reliable and robust benchmark methodology for free allocation that shields against high direct carbon costs, is perceived as fair and politically acceptable, and still incentivizes firms to take action, is a significant challenge. This article contributes to a deeper understanding of the challenges in effectively applying harmonized rules in industrial sectors that are heterogeneous. This is essential for the debate on structural reformation of the EU ETS, and for sharing experiences with other emerging emissions trading systems in the world that also consider benchmark methodologies.     

The impact of shale gas on the costs of climate policy

The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.     

Numerical modelling of the turbulent flow developing within and over a 3-d building array,part ii: a mathematical foundation for a distributed drag force approach

In this paper, we lay the foundations of a systematic mathematical formulation for the governing equations for flow through an urban canopy (e.g., coarse-scaled building array) where the effects of the unresolved obstacles on the flow are represented through a distributed mean-momentum sink. This, in turn, implies additional corresponding terms in the transport equations for the turbulence quantities. More specifically, a modified k-- model is derived for the simulation of the mean wind speed and turbulence for a neutrally stratified flow through and over a building array, where groups of buildings in the array are aggregated and treated as a porous medium. This model is based on time averaging the spatially averaged Navier--Stokes equations, in which the effects of the obstacle--atmosphere interaction are included through the introduction of a volumetric momentum sink (representing drag on the unresolved buildings in the array).The k-- turbulence closure model requires two additional prognostic equations, namely one for the time-averaged resolved-scale kinetic energy of turbulence,, and another for the dissipation rate, , of . The transport equation for is derived directly from the transport equation for the spatially averaged velocity, and explicitly includes additional sources and sinks that arise from time averaging the product of the spatially averaged velocity fluctuations and the distributed drag force fluctuations. We show how these additional source/sink terms in the transport equation for can be obtained in a self-consistent manner from a parameterization of the sink term in the spatially averaged momentum equation. Towards this objective, the time-averaged product of the spatially averaged velocity fluctuations and the distributed drag force fluctuations can be approximated systematically using a Taylor series expansion. A high-order approximation is derived to represent this source/sink term in the transport equation for . The dissipation rate () equation is simply obtained as a dimensionally consistent analogue of the equation. The relationship between the proposed mathematical formulation of the equations for turbulent flow within an urban canopy (where the latter is treated as a porous medium) and an earlier heuristic two-band spectral decomposition for parameterizing turbulence in a plant canopy is explored in detail.     

三种气温预报产品黑龙江省预报效果检验

利用T639模式预报产品和黑龙江省83个国家气象站气温实况观测资料,采用最优预报因子方法选取预报因子,应用多元回归方法建立逐站日最高气温和日最低气温的MOS预报方程; 对MOS、中央气象台指导预报（SCMOC）和T639三种气温预报产品的日最高气温和日最低气温预报效果进行对比检验分析,并用EOF方法检验预报与实况的时空变化特征一致性。结果表明: 与实况的时空变化一致性方面,MOS和SCMOC较好,T639略差; 预报效果方面,MOS和SCMOC对日最高气温和日最低气温的2 ℃预报准确率普遍高于T639,MOS的预报准确率在日最高气温方面高于SCMOC,在日最低气温方面低于SCMOC; MOS对T639气温预报产品改善效果明显,尤其对冬季日最低气温的预报改善效果十分显著; MOS较T639气温预报改善效果与T639模式预报效果呈负相关关系,主要表现为,MOS预报改善效果在T639预报准确率低的山区明显优于平原,在春、夏季,预报准确率较低的日最高气温明显优于日最低气温,在冬季,预报准确率较低的日最低气温优于日最高气温; MOS气温预报方法的预报性能较理想,SCMOC对黑龙江省预报难度较大的日最低气温预报效果较好。     

银川大气污染物浓度变化特征及其与气象条件的关系

利用2013年银川地区6个监测点污染物质量浓度和同期气象要素数据,对区域内污染物浓度变化特征及其与气象条件的关系进行分析。结果表明：银川市区PM10年均值超标0.7倍,PM_2.5年均值超标0.4倍,SO₂和NO₂也有一定程度超标,CO和O₃未超标|1、2、11月和12月为SO₂、NO₂、PM₁₀、PM_2.5、CO质量浓度较高月,O₃浓度最高月为5月,次高月为10月|9:00-12:00和21:00-00:00是SO₂、NO₂、PM₁₀、PM_2.5和CO质量浓度较高的两个时段,O₃浓度一般于15:00达到最大;6类污染物普遍表现出季节性的准7 d周期和全年性的准30 d周期|空气质量状况良的频率是56 %,轻度污染26 %,优仅为12%;首要污染物以PM₁₀、PM_2.5和SO₂为主|风速与SO₂、NO₂和CO具有良好的负相关关系,与O₃则呈显著正相关关系,风速对PM₁₀和PM_2.5影响较复杂,当风速小于某一值时,有利于PM₁₀和PM_2.5扩散,当风速达到一定程度后,又会导致PM₁₀和PM_2.5浓度的增加|降水对污染物有较好的冲刷作用,且对SO₂的清除作用最明显,对O₃的清洁作用最弱。     

Numerical modelling of the turbulent flow developing within and over a 3-d building array,part iii: a istributed drag force approach,its implementation and application

A modified k- model is used for the simulation of the mean wind speed and turbulence for a neutrally-stratified flow through and over a building array, where the array is treated as a porous medium with the drag on the unresolved buildings in the array represented by a distributed momentum sink. More specifically, this model is based on time averaging the spatially averaged Navier–Stokes equation, in which the effects of the obstacle-atmosphere interaction are included through the introduction of a distributed mean-momentum sink (representing drag on the unresolved buildings in the array). In addition, closure of the time-averaged, spatially averaged Navier–Stokes equation requires two additional prognostic equations, namely one for the time-averaged resolved-scale kinetic energy of turbulence,, and another for its dissipation rate, . The performance of the proposed model and some simplified versions derived from it is compared with the spatially averaged, time-mean velocity and various spatially averaged Reynolds stresses diagnosed from a high-resolution computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of the flow within and over an aligned array of sharp-edged cubes with a plan area density of 0.25. Four different methods for diagnosis of the drag coefficient C_Dfor the aligned cube array, required for the volumetric drag force representation of the cubes, are investigated here. We found that the model predictions for mean wind speed and turbulence in the building array were not sensitive to the differing treatments of the source and sink terms in the and equations (e.g., inclusion of only the `zeroth-order' approximation for the source/sink terms compared with inclusion of a higher-order approximation for the source/sink terms in the and equations), implying that the higher-order approximations of these source/sink terms did not offer any predictive advantage. A possible explanation for this is the utilization of the Boussinesq linear stress–strain constitutive relation within the k– modelling framework, whose implicit omission of any anisotropic eddy-viscosity effects renders it incapable of predicting any strong anisotropy of the turbulence field that might exist in the building array.     

台风麦莎登陆后粘性摩擦对正压特征波动的影响

本文推导出柱坐标系下含有粘性摩擦项的正压方程组。选取2005年台风麦莎登陆浙江过程中的8月6日15时的WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting)模式输出资料,利用数值差分方法对该正压方程组求特征波解,分析粘性摩擦对台风麦莎内部正压特征波动的影响。结果表明,重力惯性外波在粘性摩擦的影响下,最不稳定波的波数为45左右,波动在摩擦的影响下衰减,波动沿逆时针传播,在半径1000 km处,1波波速为47.43 m/s,在半径r>800 km的范围内,径向风分量扰动加大,辐合辐散运动增强;而摩擦影响下的涡旋Rossby波,2波最不稳定,波动增长率减小,在半径r=200 km处波动相速度为4.282~29.172 m/s,扰动涡度大值区范围减小,涡旋Rossby波的波动区域沿着径向向台风中心收缩。分析包含所有波动时,考虑摩擦后,最不稳定波数在45左右且波动衰减,1波波速在r=1000 km处(外螺旋雨带)为26.374 m/s;在半径r=200 km(内螺旋雨带)为5.275 m/s,考虑径向基本气流后,最不稳定波的波数保持不变,半径r=1000 km处的波速增加为30.324 m/s,r=200 km(内螺旋雨带)处波速为6.065 m/s,摩擦使得径向风分量扰动明显增大,辐合辐散运动加强。