国际树轮水文学研究进展

树木年代学丰富的内容和知识体系, 成熟的研究方法, 为区域尺度上研究水文变化提供了精确的方法. 基于树轮重建水文, 认识过去长期自然水文变化格局, 合理规划与管理水资源的价值, 使树轮研究在水文气候变化研究中愈来愈受到人们的广泛重视.在短短的几十年里, 树轮水文学取得了日新月异的进展, 成为继树轮气候学之后又一快速发展的应用学科.在理解树轮水文学科学概念与内涵的基础上, 介绍了基于树轮重建水文的主要手段与方法, 从重建径流、重建极端水文事件、重建降水及重建湖泊沼泽水位等4个方面综述了国际树轮水文学的研究内容与进展, 并简要的概述了其未来发展趋势.     

树轮记录的天山南坡阿克苏河过去300a径流变化特征

利用采自天山南坡阿克苏河上游5个采样点的树木年轮样本,建立了5个树木年轮宽度年表．树轮宽度年表与近48a阿克苏河径流资料相关普查表明,阿克苏河年径流量与树轮标准化宽度年表显著相关,最高单相关系数达0．611（α〈0．00001）．利用该年表重建了阿克苏河过去300a的年径流量系列,经多方面验证表明,重建结果具有较好的可...     

树轮地貌学重建滑坡事件研究进展

树轮地貌学以其定年准确、分辨率高和时间跨度长等特点在地表过程的研究中具有极其重要的作用。树木年轮可以作为一个可靠的工具来获得滑坡过去活动的历史证据,进而解释现在正在发生的并窥探滑坡的变形信息。本文对国内外树轮地貌学方法在滑坡事件研究中的现状和取得的成果进行总结,重点阐释了树轮地貌学的原理和树轮地貌学重建滑坡活动迹象与时空分布的研究进展,并讨论了该方法存在的不足,展望了我国利用树轮地貌学开展滑坡事件研究的前景。     

利用树轮资料重建长白山区过去气候变化

本文以树轮气候学中常用的树轮宽指数资料作为过去气候的代用资料，重建了长白山区1655年以来1～4月月平均最高气温的变化。重建中的校准方程稳定性较好，并可解释重建变量方差的57．4％。在1833年以来重建可靠性较高的时段中，1974～1979年为低温期，1951～1963年为高温期。而结束于1861和结束于1897年的两个高温期持续时间最长。本文的研究结果展示了利用树轮资料重建我国长白山区过去气候变化的巨大潜力。     

乌鲁木齐河山区流域360径流量的重建

本文利用在乌鲁木齐河山区域所建立的树轮年表，重建了乌鲁木齐河山区流域３６０上年７月－当年３月的平均径流量。校准方程的相关系数０．６７０，交叉检验的误差缩减值达０．３６６。     

树轮——流域径流变化的记录

根据树轮稳定碳同位素组成序列呆较灵敏地记录降水变化的事实，利用长白山红松树轮δ＾１３Ｃｔ序列与松花江年径流量之间的平均变化关系，重建了近２００年来松花江年径流量的变化；年径流量变化有明显的准２２年周期；１９００年以前，径流量在周期波动中呈上升趋势，１９００年之后，流动中呈下降趋势。     

树轮──流域径流变化的记录

根据树轮稳定碳同位素组成（δ１３Ｃｔ）序列可较灵敏地记录降水变化的事实，利用长白山红松树轮δ１３Ｃｔ序列与松花江年径流量之间的平行变化关系，重建了近２００年来松花江年径流量的变化：年径流量变化有明显的准２２年周期；１９００年之前，径流量在周期波动中呈上升趋势，１９００年之后，波动中呈下降趋势     

青海湖布哈河流域树轮宽度指数与NDVI植被指数的关系

利用来自青海湖流域乌兰和天峻的树轮指数和1982-2003年逐月标准化植被指数(NDVI)数据及气候数据, 在分析树轮指数及草地NDVI与气候因子关系的基础上, 探讨了树轮宽度指数序列与青海湖布哈河流域草地NDVI之间的关系.结果表明: 树轮宽度指数及草地NDVI主要受6-8月份的水热条件的影响, 温度与同期树轮宽度指数及草地NDVI具有较高的正相关, 而降水的影响存在滞后性.树木年轮指数序列与6-8月草地NDVI有显著的相关关系, 与8月份的NDVI相关性最强.树轮指数与草地NDVI间的显著相关性为研究该地区草地过去的动态变化提供了基础, 利用乌兰和天峻的两条树轮指数重建了8月份NDVI的千年变化.     

基于树轮水文研究的提孜那甫河径流量长期变化

西昆仑山北坡山区分布的雪岭云杉是开展树轮水文研究的良好载体,为重建历史水文变化提供了重要的代用资料。分析了西昆仑山北坡雪岭云杉树轮宽度年表对提孜那甫河径流量的响应特征,发现树轮宽度年表与提孜那甫河年径流量(上年8月至当年7月)的显著正相关关系,建立了二者之间的一元线性回归方程,重建了提孜那甫河1665~2013年径流量序列。重建径流量序列中存在7个枯水期和8个丰水期。重建径流量序列平均值为27.87 m3/s,与实测期平均值接近,但重建序列中的极端旱涝的强度和发生频率均更高。基于树木年轮宽度重建更长时间的径流量序列,对于流域水资源科学管理和分配以及下游水库和防洪工程等项目建设的风险评估等具有重要意义。     

乌鲁木齐河山区流域360年径流量的重建

本文利用在乌鲁木齐河山区流域所建立的树轮年表，重建了乌鲁木齐河山区流域３６０年上年７月～当年３月的平均径流量。校准方程的相关系数为０．６７０，交叉检验的误差缩减值达０．３６６。在重建的３６０年径流量的变化中，有４个偏丰期和３个偏枯期，第２，３两个偏丰期与乌鲁木齐河河源１号冰川的两次冰进期相对应。对重建径流量的丰枯频率分析发现，平水年份出现最多，偏枯水年份多于偏丰水年份约５．８％，特枯水年没有出现，特丰水年出现６次，约占１．７％。这表明３６０年来径流量变化基本上稳定。     

Streamflow reconstruction for the Guxiang River,eastern Tien Shan (China): linkages to the surrounding rivers of Central Asia

Based on the high correlation of the tree-ring widths of larch and spruce trees with the actual streamflow variations, the streamflow reconstruction of the Guxiang River was developed for the period 1680–2009, with the low and high streamflow periods identified. The reconstruction model accounts for 41.1 % of the instrumental streamflow variance during the period 1957–2007. Some significant cycles (18.1, 8.1, 3.8, 2.9, 2.6, 2.4 and 2.1 years) are found using the multi-taper spectral analysis. The significant correlations with the gridded SPEI dataset revealed that the streamflow reconstruction also represents the drought variation for a large area of the eastern Tien Shan. The streamflow reconstruction of the Guxiang River shows the decreasing trend since the 1970s, and compares well with high and low streamflow periods of the Selenge River previously estimated from tree-ring records. The synoptic climatology analysis reveals that there is the relationship between anomalous atmospheric circulation and extreme hydrological events in the Guxiang River basin.     

天山北坡精河1615—2007年径流量变化的树轮记录

中国天山北坡西部精河流域山区的树木年轮记录了气候与水文变化过程,利用树轮宽度重建流域径流量长期变化历史对艾比湖湿地自然保护区生态保护和流域水资源利用具有重要意义.建立了精河流域山区2个采样点的天山云杉树轮宽度年表,分析其对流域气象和水文要素的响应特征,建立了树轮宽度标准年表与精河水文站上年9月到当年8月径流量的线性转换方程(R2=37.5%, P<0.001),重建了公元1615—2007年的径流量变化历史.丰枯年份和持续丰枯期分析表明:精河出山口径流量重建序列包含7个丰水年和11个枯水年,且发生了13次持续丰水期和10次持续枯水期.多窗谱分析发现径流量序列在99%的置信水平上存在56.8 年、6.9 年、3.8 年、3.4 年、2.0~2.1 年周期,其中6.9 年对应厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件的周期,同时还发现了重建序列与南方涛动指数的显著负相关(r =-0.329,n=56),表明研究区径流量受大尺度海气耦合模式的影响.精河径流量序列与天山北坡玛纳斯河和乌鲁木齐河的丰枯阶段以及天山山区、伊犁地区降水变化的干湿阶段较好的对应,表明天山北坡水文和气候变化的大尺度环流背景和驱动因子一致.     

黄河源区雨季降水与汛期径流量重建及其千年尺度下的演变特征

黄河源区年内降水集中, 洪水风险大, 重建源区雨季降水和汛期径流量对于提高径流预报预测精度及防洪防灾具有重要科学意义和应用价值。本文利用黄河源区及周边筛选的16个树轮年表, 采用嵌套主成分层次贝叶斯回归模型, 估算参数后验分布替代固定值以考虑不确定性, 重建了黄河源区过去1 160 a的雨季降水; 提出了基于年径流的分类占比回归模型, 以考虑汛期径流量与年径流量的一致性, 将黄河源区汛期径流量展延至公元159年。结果表明: ①嵌套主成分层次贝叶斯回归模型的误差缩减值(E_R)和有效系数(E_C)评价指标值均显著高于0, 分类占比回归模型的E_R和E_C值最高分别达0.90和0.88, 重建结果可靠性较高; ②即使在千年尺度下, 1979—1985年亦是较为不寻常的汛期高径流量时期。     

Assessing the effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of the Limay River basin

The electricity generation capacity in the Limay River basin is approximately 26% of the total electrical power generation in Argentina. Assessing the potential effects of climate change on the hydrological regime of this basin is an important issue for water resources management. This study explores the presence of trends in streamflow series, evaluates climate sensitivity and studies the effects on the flow regime of predicted changes in precipitation in the basin. In order to identify and quantify changes in observed streamflow series, the Mann–Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, and an estimator of the magnitude of the trend are applied. In order to evaluate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in climate, the concept of elasticity is used. Precipitation elasticity of streamflow is used to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation and is estimated using a power law model and a linear statistical model in two sub-basins, Aluminé and Nahuel Huapi. The effects on flow regime of the predicted changes in precipitation under different scenarios are studied. Climatic results for different scenarios of growth in greenhouse gases from some General Circulation Models are used as inputs into the proposed models. The analysis identifies decreasing trends in mean and minimum annual flows and in the low flow season. The estimates of the precipitation elasticity imply that changes in precipitation produce similar changes in streamflow and the climatic results for different scenarios show that the variations are moderate.     

A Review of Studies Dealing with Tree Rings and Rockfall Activity: The Role of Dendrogeomorphology in Natural Hazard Research

Over the last few years, rockfall research has increasingly focused on hazard assessment and risk analysis. Input data on past rockfall activity were gathered from historical archives and lichenometric studies or were obtained through frequency–volume statistics. However, historical records are generally scarce, and lichenometry may only yield data with relatively low resolutions. On forested slopes, in contrast, tree-ring analyses may help, generally providing annual data on past rockfall activity over long periods. It is the purpose of the present literature review to survey the current state of investigations dealing with tree-ring sequences and rockfall activity, with emphasis on the extent to which dendrogeomorphology may contribute to rockfall research. Firstly, a brief introduction describes how dendrogeomorphological methods can contribute to natural hazard research. Secondly, an account is provided of the output of dendrogeomorphological studies investigating frequencies, volumes or spatial distributions of past rockfall activity. The current and potential strengths of dendrogeomorphology are then presented before, finally, the weaknesses of tree rings as natural archives of past rockfall activity are discussed and promising directions for further studies outlined.     

Palaeoecological study on the Holocene valley development of the River Main, southern Germany

Tree-ring studies carried out on subfossil oak trunk deposits within the Holocene valley fills of the River Main can reconstruct phases of increased fluvial activities. These phases have been dated on the base of two absolutely tree-ring dated chronologies and in addition by ¹¹C-datings of eleven floating tree-ring scries of subfossil oaks.
Geological-pedological investigations reveal an alternation between increased and reduced fluvial activity during the Holocene.
Periods of increased gravel redeposition are dated by dendrochronology, and by ¹⁴C and cultural findings. Increased fluvial activity becomes more frequent towards Modern Times with culminations in the Middle Atlantic, the Subboreal, the Iron-Roman Age, the Main Middle Ages till earliest Modern Times, and in the last century.
On the sequence of Holocene river deposits there developed specific soil types as indicators for the age of the river deposits since the Last Glacial.
Among other palaeoecological results an important finding is the correlation between tree-ring width, flood-loam sedimentation, and soil development.     

Weakening climatic signal since mid-20th century in European larch tree-ring chronologies at different altitudes from the Adamello-Presanella Massif (Italian Alps)

Tree rings from temperature-limited environments are highly sensitive climate proxies, widely used to reconstruct past climate parameters for periods prior to the availability of instrumental data and to analyse the effect of recent global warming on tree growth. An analysis of the climatic signal in five high-elevation tree-ring width chronologies of European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) from the tops of five different glacial valleys in the Italian Central Alps revealed that they contain a strong summer-temperature signal and that tree-ring growth is especially influenced by June temperatures. However, a moving correlation function analysis revealed a recent loss of the June temperature signal in the tree-ring chronologies. This signal reduction primarily involves the two lowest-altitude chronologies. It is probable that the observed increasing importance of late-summer temperature for tree-ring growth over the past 50 yr is an effect of the lengthening growing season and of the variations in the climate/tree-ring relationship over time. All the chronologies considered, especially those at the highest altitudes, show an increasing negative influence of June precipitation on tree-ring growth. The climatic signal recorded in tree-ring chronologies from the Italian Central Alps varies over time and is also differentially influenced by climatic parameters according to site elevation.     

台湾多站流量生成模式的研究

在台湾不同时间下之流量均呈现强烈的气候特性,透过具有气候意义的流量模式,可使得模拟模式的结果更接近实际情况.利用台湾的气候特性,将流量区分于不同气候之贡献,初步完成具台湾气候特性的单站流量生成模式.再使用统计方法考虑于同一流域中不同时段与不同河川间之流量,最后形成合适的多站流量模式.经由多站流量生成模式所得之流量,不似单站生成模式缺乏流域整体的考虑,同时也保持河川间的相关性,与流量间时序之关系.将此模式应用在台湾淡水河流域的支流上,已获致颇佳的结果.此具气象性质之多站流量生成模式未来适合推广于台湾其它流域之水资源规划.     

Utilizing non-traditional data sources for estimating channel seepage losses

Accurate streamflow data, which constitute the basic component in estimating seepage losses or gains in streamflow are in short supply in developing countries. The lack of either financial or technical resources, or both, and at times, the lack of understanding of the importance of accurate streamflow measurements in supporting modeling and water resources decision making process hinder the installation and proper maintenance of streamflow gauges. Therefore, the current study adopted the aim of demonstrating the feasibility of utilizing alternative streamflow data sources in hydrologic studies. In the current study, such sources included effluent from a large wastewater treatment plant as an inflow to the river segment under consideration while the outflow from the same river segment was taken to be the flow discharged into a dam reservoir as calculated from daily dam reservoir water balance. A water balance was established for a 48 km segment on the Zarqa River in Jordan with components covering the inputs of discharge from springs, and wastewater treatment plants and outputs such as direct evaporation, and surface withdrawals for irrigation purposes. Channel seepage was estimated as the difference between inputs and outputs of the river segment water balance. Final results demonstrated the feasibility of utilizing non-traditional data sources, whenever available, to conduct analysis that traditionally has not been possible.