Covariance among North Sea ecosystem state indicators during the past50 years — Contrasts between coastal and open waters

Regime shift and principal component analysis of a spatially disaggregated database capturing time-series of climatic, nutrient and plankton variables in the North Sea revealed considerable covariance between groups of ecosystem indicators. Plankton and climate time-series span the period 1958–2003, those of nutrients start in 1980. In both regions, the period from 1989 to 2001 identified in principal component 1 had warmer surface waters, higher Atlantic inflow and stronger winds, than the periods before or after. However, it was preceded by a regime shift in both open (PC2) and coastal (PC3) waters during 1977 towards more hours of sunlight and higher water temperature, which lasted until 1997. The relative influence of nutrient availability and climatic forcing differed between open and coastal North Sea regions. Inter-annual variability in phytoplankton dynamics of the open North Sea was primarily regulated by climatic forcing, specifically by sea surface temperature, Atlantic inflow and co-varying wind stress and NAO. Coastal phytoplankton variability, however, was regulated by insolation and sea surface temperature, as well as Si availability, but not by N or P. Regime shifts in principal components of hydrographic and climatic variables (explaining 55 and 61% of the variance in coastal and open water variables) were detected using Rodionov's sequential t-test. These shifts in hydroclimatic variables which occurred around 1977, 1989, 1997 and 2001, were synchronized in open and coastal waters, and were tracked by open water chlorophyll and copepods, but not by coastal plankton. North–central–south or open-coastal spatial breakdowns of the North Sea explained similar amounts of variability in most ecosystem indicators with the exception of diatom abundance and chlorophyll concentration, which were clearly better explained using the open-coastal configuration.     

Contrast in life histories of exploited fishes and ecosystem structures in coastal waters off west Canada and east Korea

By reviewing the history of fishery exploitation in the coastal waters of west Canada and east Korea, related with contrasting life history strategies of the dominant species, the fishery management challenges that each country would face in the upcoming decades were outlined. In the ecosystem of the Canadian western coastal waters, the dominant oceanographic feature is the coastal upwelling domain off the west coast of Vancouver Island, the northernmost extent of the California Current System in the eastern North Pacific. In the marine ecosystem of the eastern coasts of Korea (the Japan/East Sea), a major oceanographic feature is the Tsushima Warm Current, a branch of the Kuroshio Current in the western North Pacific. Fishes in the Canadian ecosystem are dominated by demersal, long-lived species such as flatfish, rockfish, sablefish, and halibut. During summer, migratory pelagic species such as Pacific hake, Pacific salmon, and recently Pacific sardine, move into this area to feed. In the late 1970s, Canada declared jurisdiction for 200 miles from their coastline, and major fisheries species in Canadian waters have been managed with a quota system. The overall fishing intensity off the west coast of Vancouver Island has been relatively moderate compared to Korean waters. Fishes in the ecosystem of the eastern Korean waters are dominated by short-lived pelagic and demersal fish. Historically, Korea has shared marine resources in this area with neighbouring countries, but stock assessments and quotas have only recently (since the late-1990s) been implemented for some major species. In the Korean ecosystem, fisheries can be described as intensive, and many stocks have been rated as overfished. The two ecosystems responded differently to climate impacts such as regime shifts under different exploitation histories. In the future, both countries will face the challenge of global warming and subsequent impacts on ecosystems, necessitating developing adaptive fisheries management plans. The challenges will be contrasting for the two countries: Canada will need to conserve fish populations, while Korea will need to focus on rebuilding depleted fish populations.     

Historical ecology provides new insights for ecosystem management: eastern Baltic cod case study

A recent historical marine ecological case study (cod in the eastern Baltic Sea) is used to show how long-term data and knowledge of fluctuations can contribute to revisions of fishery management policy. The case study first developed new longer analytical time series of spawner biomass and recruitment back to the 1920s, which extended knowledge of population dynamics into a time period when ecosystem state was characterized by temporally varying combinations of exploitation, climate-hydrographic conditions, marine mammal predation and eutrophication. Recovery of spatially resolved historical catch data from the late 1500s to early 1600s also contributed new perspectives to cod population dynamics under alternative ecosystem forcings. These new perspectives have contributed, and will likely continue to contribute to new management policies (e.g., revision of fishery management reference points), which should lead to higher sustainability of the population and fishery yields, and improved overall ecosystem health. These perspectives will likely continue to provide baseline information as ICES and the EU develop new policies based on maximum sustainable yield concepts.     

A New model to forecast fishing ground of Scomber japonicus in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea

The pelagic species is closely related to the marine environmental factors, and establishment of forecasting model of fishing ground with high accuracy is an important content for pelagic fishery. The chub mackerel(Scomber japonicus) in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea is an important fishing target for Chinese lighting purse seine fishery. Based on the fishery data from China's mainland large-type lighting purse seine fishery for chub mackerel during the period of 2003 to 2010 and the environmental data including sea surface temperature(SST), gradient of the sea surface temperature(GSST), sea surface height(SSH) and geostrophic velocity(GV), we attempt to establish one new forecasting model of fishing ground based on boosted regression trees. In this study, the fishing areas with fishing effort is considered as one fishing ground, and the areas with no fishing ground are randomly selected from a background field, in which the fishing areas have no records in the logbooks. The performance of the forecasting model of fishing ground is evaluated with the testing data from the actual fishing data in 2011. The results show that the forecasting model of fishing ground has a high prediction performance, and the area under receiver operating curve(AUC) attains 0.897. The predicted fishing grounds are coincided with the actual fishing locations in 2011, and the movement route is also the same as the shift of fishing vessels, which indicates that this forecasting model based on the boosted regression trees can be used to effectively forecast the fishing ground of chub mackerel in the Yellow Sea and East China Sea.     

Trophic network model of the Northern Adriatic Sea: Analysis of an exploited and eutrophic ecosystem

A quantitative model of the trophic network of Northern Adriatic Sea marine ecosystem during the 1990s has been constructed, with the goal of analysing its trophic structure, identifying the key trophic groups and assessing the anthropogenic impacts on the ecosystem using the Ecopath modelling protocol. The Northern Adriatic Sea is an eutrophic, shallow basin, and one of the most heavily fished areas in the Mediterranean Sea. The network aggregation into discrete trophic levels sensu Lindeman shows that low trophic levels dominate biomass and energy flows, with 40% of the total system throughput flowing out from trophic level 2. Instead, upper trophic levels appear bottom-up controlled, highly depleted and not exerting any control on the trophic network, as shown by mixed trophic impact-based analyses. Microbial loop is comparable to grazing with respect to the magnitude of flows involved, as 66% of the trophic network flows originate from detritus, which is mainly consumed by bacteria. Key trophic groups are plankton groups, macro-crustaceans and detritus, and other r-selected organisms like squids and small pelagics, which have a great influence on the ecosystem. In particular, zooplankton acts as a bottleneck for energy flows, limiting the energy from the low trophic levels effectively reaching the upper food web. The high pelagic production caused by eutrophication sustains high fishery landings and impressive discard quantities, as well as the benthic compartment. Overall, the ecosystem appears quite productive and in a stressed and developmental status. Model results and comparisons with few existing historical data suggest that the low maturity and stressed state of the Northern Adriatic Sea are not only due to natural characteristics, but mainly to anthropogenic pressures.     

Fishery-induced Inter-annual Changes in the Mean Trophic Level,the Northern Sea of Oman off the Iranian Coast, 2002–2011

Ecosystem-based management is one of the most important approaches that may lead to reducing the impacts of fishing on ecosystems. In this context, we have assessed the impact of Iranian coastal fishing (using landing data of 49 exploited species) on the ecosystem of the North Sea of Oman (Sistan and Baluchestan Province), during the last decade (2002–2011), with emphasis on testing the occurrence of the “fishing down? phenomenon. The Mean Trophic Level (MTL) and Fishing-in-Balance (FiB) index are two indicators that we used for analysis. The data indicated that the increased total landings in this region might be related to the exploitation of marine fishery resources especially with regard to large pelagic fish. Over the past decade, moderate decreasing trends in MTL and an increasing trend in the FiB-index were observed. In this regard, an upward trend in the spatial expansion factor and also a downward trend in the piscivory index and in Primary Production Required (PPR) in the time period could all indicate a spatial expansion toward deep waters, the catching of the large pelagic piscivorous species, such as tuna, and a sign of fishing pressures on the ecosystem. The results suggest a range of fishery exploitation patterns throughout the food web but it seems that these patterns are not a consequence of ?fishing down?. We suggest that the monitoring research be continued in this region and these indicators should be used to make fisheries management decisions and to prevent the continuance of this trend in future.     

Climatological annual cycles of nutrients and chlorophyll in the North Sea

A large amount of nutrient and chlorophyll data from the North Sea were compiled and organised in a research data base to produce annual cycles on a relatively fine spatial resolution of 1° in each horizontal direction. The data originate from many different sources and were partly provided by the ECOMOD data base of the Institut fur Meereskunde in Hamburg and partly by ICES in Copenhagen to cover the time range from 1950 to 1994. While the annual cycles of nutrients and chlorophyll derived for the continental coastal zone are representative for the decade 1984–1993 only, those for the remaining parts of the North Sea may be considered climatological annual cycles based on data from more than four decades. The composite data set of climatological annual cycles of medians and their climatological ranges is well suited to serve for validational and forcing purposes for ecosystem models of the North Sea, which have a resolution larger than or equal to 1° in both longitude and latitude. The annual cycles of the macronutrients and chlorophyll presented here for 1° × 1° squares in the North Sea show especially that sufficient observational data exist to provide initial, forcing and validational data for the simulations with the 130-box setup (ND130) of the ecosystem model ERSEM. The annual cycles presented give a clear picture for the whole of the North Sea. The highest concentrations occur at the continental coasts as a result of continued river input, which is added to the ongoing atmospheric input over the North Sea. Also, from the Atlantic Ocean water with relatively high nutrient concentrations enters the North Sea via the northern boundary. In the productive areas on and around the Dogger Bank nutrient concentrations are lower than in the other parts of the North Sea, even in winter. The areas with seasonal stratification have very different annual cycles in the upper (0–30 m) and lower layers (30 m-bottom). The shallow boxes are fully mixed and exhibit a relatively fast increase of nutrient concentrations caused by summer regeneration of nutrients.     

Plastic particles in coastal pelagic ecosystems of the Northeast Pacific ocean

The purpose of this study was to examine the distribution, abundance and characteristics of plastic particles in plankton samples collected routinely in Northeast Pacific ecosystems, and to contribute to the development of ideas for future research into the occurrence and impact of small plastic debris in marine pelagic ecosystems. Plastic debris particles were assessed from zooplankton samples collected as part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) ongoing ecosystem surveys during two research cruises in the Southeast Bering Sea in the spring and fall of 2006 and four research cruises off the U.S. west coast (primarily off southern California) in spring, summer and fall of 2006, and in January of 2007. Nets with 0.505 mm mesh were used to collect surface samples during all cruises, and sub-surface samples during the four cruises off the west coast. The 595 plankton samples processed indicate that plastic particles are widely distributed in surface waters. The proportion of surface samples from each cruise that contained particles of plastic ranged from 8.75 to 84.0%, whereas particles were recorded in sub-surface samples from only one cruise (in 28.2% of the January 2007 samples). Spatial and temporal variability was apparent in the abundance and distribution of the plastic particles and mean standardized quantities varied among cruises with ranges of 0.004-0.19 particles/m3, and 0.014-0.209 mg dry mass/m3. Off southern California, quantities for the winter cruise were significantly higher, and for the spring cruise significantly lower than for the summer and fall surveys (surface data). Differences between surface particle concentrations and mass for the Bering Sea and California coast surveys were significant for pair-wise comparisons of the spring but not the fall cruises. The particles were assigned to three plastic product types: product fragments, fishing net and line fibers, and industrial pellets; and five size categories: <1 mm, 1-2.5 mm, >2.5-5 mm, >5-10 mm, and >10 mm. Product fragments accounted for the majority of the particles, and most were less than 2.5 mm in size. The ubiquity of such particles in the survey areas and predominance of sizes <2.5 mm implies persistence in these pelagic ecosystems as a result of continuous breakdown from larger plastic debris fragments, and widespread distribution by ocean currents. Detailed investigations of the trophic ecology of individual zooplankton species, and their encounter rates with various size ranges of plastic particles in the marine pelagic environment, are required in order to understand the potential for ingestion of such debris particles by these organisms. Ongoing plankton sampling programs by marine research institutes in large marine ecosystems are good potential sources of data for continued assessment of the abundance, distribution and potential impact of small plastic debris in productive coastal pelagic zones.     

Historic changes in flux of matter and nutrient budgets in the Bohai Sea

Over the past four periods （ 1959--1960, 1982--1983, 1992--1993, and 1998--1999）, the ecosystem of the Bohai Sea changed due to both a significant decrease of river water discharge from the Huanghe River and a reduction of precipitation. The shifts in nutrient chemistry could result in changes in the phytoplankton composition with an increased potential for non-diatom algal blooms. Simple box model was used to estimate the water - mass balance and nutrient budgets for the Bohai Sea. Water budgets indicate that the residual flow changed from out of the Bohai Sea before 1993, but became inflow to the Bohai Sea after then. The nutrient budgets developed indicate that the Bohai Sea was a sink for nutrients except for phosphate in 1959--1960 and 1982-- 1983 and for silicate in 1982--1983. Net water flow transports nutrients out of the Bohai Sea in 1959--1960, 1982--1983 and 1992--1993, but into the sea in 1998--1999 due to climate changes, such as precipitation and subsequent freshwater discharge. The residual fluxes of nutrients are minor relative to atmospheric deposition and riverine inputs. Conversions of phosphate values to carbon by stoichiometric ratios were used to predict that the system was net heterotrophic before 1982--1983 and net autotrophic after then. Nutrient budgets can explain the change of nutrient concentrations in the Bohai Sea except nitrates, which should include the surface runoff.     

Abrupt transitions of the top-down controlled Black Sea pelagic ecosystem during 1960–2000: Evidence for regime-shifts under strong fishery exploitation and nutrient enrichment modulated by climate-induced variations

Functioning of the Black Sea ecosystem has profoundly changed since the early 1970s under cumulative effects of excessive nutrient enrichment, strong cooling/warming, over-exploitation of pelagic fish stocks, and population outbreak of gelatinous carnivores. Applying a set of criteria to the long-term (1960–2000) ecological time-series data, the present study demonstrates that the Black Sea ecosystem was reorganised during this transition phase in different forms of top-down controlled food web structure through successive regime-shifts of distinct ecological properties. The Secchi disc depth, oxic–anoxic interface zone, dissolved oxygen and hydrogen sulphide concentrations also exhibit abrupt transition between their alternate regimes, and indicate tight coupling between the lower trophic food web structure and the biogeochemical pump in terms of regime-shift events.The first shift, in 1973–1974, marks a switch from large predatory fish to small planktivore fish-controlled system, which persisted until 1989 in the form of increasing small pelagic and phytoplankton biomass and decreasing zooplankton biomass. The increase in phytoplankton biomass is further supported by a bottom-up contribution due to the cumulative response to high anthropogenic nutrient load and the concurrent shift of the physical system to the “cold climate regime” following its ∼20-year persistence in the “warm climate regime”. The end of the 1980s signifies the depletion of small planktivores and the transition to a gelatinous carnivore-controlled system. By the end of the 1990s, small planktivore populations take over control of the system again. Concomitantly, their top-down pressure when combined with diminishing anthropogenic nutrient load and more limited nutrient supply into the surface waters due to stabilizing effects of relatively warm winter conditions switched the “high production” regime of phytoplankton to its background “low production” regime.The Black Sea regime-shifts appear to be sporadic events forced by strong transient decadal perturbations, and therefore differ from the multi-decadal scale cyclical events observed in pelagic ocean ecosystems under low-frequency climatic forcing. The Black Sea observations illustrate that eutrophication and extreme fishery exploitation can indeed induce hysteresis in large marine ecosystems, when they can exert sufficiently strong forcing onto the system. They further illustrate the link between the disruption of the top predators, proliferation of new predator stocks, and regime-shift events. Examples of these features have been reported for some aquatic ecosystems, but are extremely limited for large marine ecosystems.     

Mixed and Multi-Stock Fisheries

The September 2003 ICES Annual Science Conference was held inTalinn, Estonia, and Theme Session V was "Mixed and multi-stockfisheries – challenges and tools for assessments, prediction,and management." The theme session brought together researchersfrom the salmonid and marine fishery fields to address commonproblems faced when multiple fleets harvest a common stock,     

Increasing zooplankton variance in the late 1990s unveils hydroclimate modifications in the Balearic Sea,Western Mediterranean

We examined seasonal and interannual patterns of zooplankton functional groups in the Balearic Sea from 1994 to 2003 and revealed a conspicuous increase in zooplankton variance at community and population levels. The change occurred in 1999–2000, and paralleled modifications in the North Atlantic climate that cascaded down affecting the water column thermal gradient in the Balearic Sea. The observed modifications in both hydroclimate and ecological compartments raise the question of a potential ecological shift in the pelagic ecosystem of the Western Mediterranean in the late 1990s.     

Ecosystem structure and resilience—A comparison between the Norwegian and the Barents Sea

Abundance and biomass of the most important fish species inhabited the Barents and Norwegian Sea ecosystems have shown considerable fluctuations over the last decades. These fluctuations connected with fishing pressure resulted in the trophic structure alterations of the ecosystems. Resilience and other theoretical concepts (top-down, wasp-waste and bottom-up control, trophic cascades) were viewed to examine different response of the Norwegian and Barents Sea ecosystems on disturbing forces. Differences in the trophic structure and functioning of Barents and Norwegian Sea ecosystems as well as factors that might influence the resilience of the marine ecosystems, including climatic fluctuation, variations in prey and predator species abundance, alterations in their regular migrations, and fishing exploitation were also considered. The trophic chain lengths in the deep Norwegian Sea are shorter, and energy transfer occurs mainly through the pelagic fish/invertebrates communities. The shallow Barents Sea is characterized by longer trophic chains, providing more energy flow into their benthic assemblages. The trophic mechanisms observed in the Norwegian Sea food webs dominated by the top-down control, i.e. the past removal of Norwegian Spring spawning followed by zooplankton development and intrusion of blue whiting and mackerel into the area. The wasp-waist response is shown to be the most pronounced effect in the Barents Sea, related to the position of capelin in the ecosystem; large fluctuations in the capelin abundance have been strengthened by intensive fishery. Closer links between ecological and fisheries sciences are needed to elaborate and test various food webs and multispecies models available.     

Review of three-dimensional ecological modelling related to the North Sea shelf system: Part 1: models and their results

The state-of-the-art in modelling the marine ecosystem of the greater North Sea is reviewed, providing an overview especially about three-dimensional models that describe and predict how the marine ecosystem of the greater North Sea area functions and how concentrations and fluxes of biologically important elements vary in space and time, throughout the shelf and over years, in response to physical forcing. Articles with a strong concentration on modelling were selected from the available literature, and all articles around the existing “ecological modelling groups” dealing with the area of the North Sea were sorted in chronological order of their appearance in the literature. We found eleven of such groups and described their different modelling efforts. Selecting the seven three-dimensional models (NORWECOM, GHER, ECOHAM, ERSEM, ELISE, COHERENS and POL3dERSEM), we characterized the complexity of the models, by comparing the resolution in time and space, and the resolution of the trophic structure by discussing the number and kind of state variables and of the processes relating these state variables to each other.The review of biogeochemical/ecological modelling for the greater North Sea shows that important findings by model simulations have either confirmed existing knowledge derived from field work or have given new insight into the mechanisms of the functioning of the North Sea system: the temporal and spatial development and magnitude of primary production, its spreading from the coasts to the north-west over the open North Sea, its mechanisms of limitation, the functioning of the pelagic small food web and of the benthic web, the mechanisms of nutrient regeneration, the effects of riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs causing eutrophication of coastal waters, the extent of eutrophication in the North Sea, and the budgets for nitrogen, phosphorus, and silicon. The three-dimensional ecological models of the greater North Sea have provided consistent distributions and dynamics of the lower trophic levels on their regional, annual and decadal scales which cannot be derived to this degree of coverage by observations.The state-of-the-art in validation for these models is presented in part 2     

模拟升温和营养盐加富对大亚湾浮游生物群落代谢的影响*

文章结合模拟升温和营养盐加富, 于2016年8月和2017年1月研究了夏季和冬季大亚湾海域浮游生物群落代谢特征, 以期深入了解浮游生物对升温和富营养化作用的响应机制。结果表明: 升温和营养盐输入均会影响浮游生物总初级生产力(GPP)和群落呼吸率(CR), 且GPP对环境的响应更敏感。夏季GPP除在培养前期(24h)极高温条件下受到显著抑制外, 营养盐输入的影响比温度的影响作用更显著; 而冬季GPP和CR受升温效应的影响显著(p<0.05)。总体看来, 升温效应和营养盐输入均能影响浮游生物群落碳代谢平衡, 导致海洋生态系统的稳定性降低, 进而影响海洋生物多样性以及渔业资源产出的数量和质量。     

Ecological performance indicators in the North Sea: development and application

Different signals of distress from the North Sea ecosystems started a discussion on the protection of the ecosystem at the third North Sea Ministers Conference in 1990. This was followed by a number of workshops on ecological indicators under the auspices of the North Sea Task Force and the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR). In 1997 the member countries around the North Sea agreed to develop and apply an ecosystem's approach in the management programs for both the North Sea fisheries and the marine environment. Following this agreement the identification of the ecological qualities objectives for the North Sea ecosystem started. Further work in this direction has lead to the setting up of various national projects geared towards creating a better understanding of the North Sea ecosystem.In the Netherlands, two departments (Water management and Nature and fisheries management) from the Ministry of Transport, Public works and Water Management (V&W) and the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Fisheries Management (LNV) agreed to integrate their policies for the management of the Netherlands section of the North Sea. The results from these projects (started in 1996) should enable the policy makers and managers to formulate policies that could lead to the creation of a balance between the effects of human activities and the preservation of the natural qualities of the North Sea ecosystem.One of the projects is strictly designed to develop ecological indicators for the Dutch part of the North Sea. These indicators are based on various monitoring data and related in one way or another with human activities. In this way it is possible to evaluate the effects of human impacts on the ecosystem. Long-term changes in the ecological performance of the ecosystem can be elucidated by the use of the ecological indicators. Thereby making it possible for the policy makers and the managers of the NCP to evaluate the effects of their policies and management recommendations on the quality of the ecosystem.This paper describes the process and the steps taken by the authorities in the countries around the North Sea to develop a set of ecological indicators for the management of the North Sea ecosystem. Focus will be made on the efforts made in the Netherlands to develop indicators that did provide the basis for the development of Water and Nature conservation policies and new management strategies for maintaining the sustainable use of the Dutch section of the North Sea.     

Black-legged kittiwakes as indicators of environmental change in the North Sea: Evidence from long-term studies

Top predators, particularly seabirds, have repeatedly been suggested as indicators of marine ecosystem status. One region currently under pressure from human fisheries and climate change is the North Sea. Standardized seabird monitoring data have been collected on the Isle of May, an important seabird colony in the northwestern North Sea, over the last 10-20 years. Over this period oceanographic conditions have varied markedly, and between 1990 and 1999 a major industrial fishery for sandlance (Ammodytes marinus), the main prey of most seabird species, was prosecuted nearby. Sandlance fishing grounds close to seabird colonies down the east coast of the UK were closed in 2000 in an attempt to improve foraging opportunities for breeding seabirds, particularly black-legged kittiwakes (Rissa tridactyla). Initially this closure seemed to be beneficial for kittiwakes with breeding success recovering to pre-fishery levels. However, despite the ban continuing, kittiwakes and many other seabird species in the North Sea suffered severe breeding failures in 2004. In this paper, we test the predictive power of four previously established correlations between kittiwake breeding success and climatic/trophic variables to explain the observed breeding success at the Isle of May in 2004. During the breeding season, kittiwakes at this colony switch from feeding on 1+ group to 0 group sandlance, and results up until 2003 indicated that availability of both age classes had a positive effect on kittiwake breeding success. The low breeding success of kittiwakes in 2004 was consistent with the late appearance and small body size of 0 group sandlance, but at odds with the two variables likely to operate via 1 group availability (lagged winter sea surface temperature and larval sandlance cohort strength in 2003). The reason for the discrepancy is currently unknown, but analysis of 1 group sandlance body composition indicated that lipid content in 2004 was extremely low, and thus fish eaten by kittiwakes during pre-breeding and early incubation were likely to be of poor quality. Monitoring of reproductive success of kittiwakes, although useful, was clearly not sufficient to tease apart the complex causation underlying the 2004 event. Monitoring programs such as this, therefore, need to be complemented by detailed research to identify the mechanisms involved, and to attribute and predict the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change.     

Abundance and Distribution Patterns of Nekton and Micronekton in the Northern California Current Transition Zone

The epipelagic and mesopelagic nekton communities of the northern California Current have been sampled somewhat continuously over the last four decades with bottom and pelagic trawls, small midwater trawls, and purse seines. We review the zoogeography and community and environmental associations of the dominant pelagic micronekton and nekton species in this region with a view to understanding their role in this dynamic marine ecosystem. As is typical of many upwelling eastern boundary current regions, the pelagic biomass is dominated by a few species that fluctuate dramatically through time. The abundance trends of pelagic nekton caught in this region demonstrated large-scale ecosystem changes about the time of the regime shifts of 1976/77 and 1989 and possibly another beginning in 1999. The rapidity of the changes in composition indicates that the response was due to a change in migration or distribution patterns as opposed to recruitment patterns. The 1989 regime shift led to a dramatic increase in sardine and a decrease in anchovy populations. The most pronounced interannual signals were attributed to strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in 1983 and 1998 that altered the latitudinal ranges and proximity to the coast of many pelagic species. Variations in abundance and cross-shelf distribution patterns were noted for both pelegic nekton and micronektonic from surveys off California, Oregon, and Washington.     

The North Sea regime shift: Evidence, causes, mechanisms and consequences

This paper focuses on the ecosystem regime shift in the North Sea that occurred during the period 1982–1988. The evidence for the change is seen from individual species to key ecosystem parameters such as diversity and from phytoplankton to fish. Although many biological/ecosystem parameters and individual species exhibited a stepwise change during the period 1983–1988, some indicators show no evidence of change. The cause of the regime shift is likely to be related to pronounced changes in large-scale hydro-meteorological forcing. This involved activating of complex intermediate physical mechanisms which explains why the exact timing of the shift can vary from 1982 to 1988 (centred around two periods: 1982–1985 and 1987–1988) according to the species or taxonomic group. Increased sea surface temperature and possibly change in wind intensity and direction at the end of the 1970s in the west European basin triggered a change in the location of an oceanic biogeographical boundary along the European continental shelf. This affected both the stable and substrate biotope components of North Sea marine ecosystems (i.e. components related to the water masses and components which are geographically stable) circa 1984. Large-scale hydro-climatic forcing also modified local hydro-meteorological parameters around the North Sea after 1987 affecting the stable biotope components of North Sea ecosystems. Problems related to the detection and quantification of an ecosystem regime shift are discussed.     

Climate variance influence on the non-stationary plankton dynamics

We examined plankton responses to climate variance by using high temporal resolution data from 1988 to 2007 in the Western English Channel. Climate variability modified both the magnitude and length of the seasonal signal of sea surface temperature, as well as the timing and depth of the thermocline. These changes permeated the pelagic system yielding conspicuous modifications in the phenology of autotroph communities and zooplankton. The climate variance envelope, thus far little considered in climate-plankton studies, is closely coupled with the non-stationary dynamics of plankton, and sheds light on impending ecological shifts and plankton structural changes. Our study calls for the integration of the non-stationary relationship between climate and plankton in prognostic models on the productivity of marine ecosystems.