An integrated methodology to assess future water resources under land use and climate change: an application to the Tahadart drainage basin (Morocco)

The assessment of freshwater resources in a drainage basin is not only dependent on its hydrologic parameters but also on the socio-economic system driving development in the watershed area; the socio-economic aspect, that is often neglected in hydrologic studies, is one of the novelties of this study. The aim of this paper is twofold: (1) presenting an integrated working methodology and (2) studying a local case of a North African watershed where scarce field data are available. Using this integrated methodology, the effects of climate and land use change on the water resources and the economic development of the Tahadart drainage basin in Northern Morocco have been evaluated. Water salinization, tourism, urbanization, and water withdrawals are a threat to water resources that will increase with future climate change. The Tahadart Basin (Morocco 1,145 km²) is characterized by rain-fed agriculture and by the presence of two water retention basins. Assessment of the effects of climate and land use change on this drainage basin was based on current and future land cover maps obtained from spatial interactions models, climate data (current and future; scenario A1b for the period 2080–2100), and hydrological models for water budget calculations. Land use suitability maps were designed assuming a A1b Special Report on Emissions Scenarios socio-economic development scenario. The most important conclusions for the period 2080–2100 are the following: (1) Freshwater availability within the watershed will likely be affected by a strong increase in evaporation from open water surface bodies due to increased temperature. This increase in evaporation will limit the amount of freshwater that can be stored in the surface reservoirs. (2) Sea level rise will cause flooding and salinization of the coastal area. (3) The risk for drought in winter is likely to increase. The methodology used in this paper is integrated into a decision support tool that is used to quantify change in land use and water resources.     

Seasonal dynamic of a shallow freshwater lens due to irrigation in the coastal plain of Ravenna,Italy

Irrigation in low-lying coastal plains may enhance the formation of fresh groundwater lenses, which counteract salinization of groundwater and soil. This study presents seasonal dynamics of such a freshwater lens and discusses its influence on the salinity distribution of the unconfined aquifer in the coastal plain of Ravenna, Italy, combining field observations with numerical modeling (SEAWAT). The lens originates from an irrigation ditch used as a water reservoir for spray irrigation. The geometry of the freshwater lens shows seasonal differences because of freshwater infiltration during the irrigation season and upconing of deeper saltwater for the remainder of the year. The extent of the freshwater lens is controlled by the presence of nearby drainage ditches. Irrigation also results in a temperature anomaly in the aquifer because of the infiltration of warm water during the irrigation season. The surficial zone in the vicinity of the irrigation ditch is increased considerably in thickness. Finally, different irrigation alternatives and the influence of sea-level rise are simulated. This shows that it is necessary to integrate irrigation planning into the water management strategy of the coastal zone to have maximum benefits for freshening of the aquifer and to make optimal use of the existing infrastructure.     

Extreme aridity prior to lake expansion deciphered from facies evolution in the Miocene Ili Basin,south‐east Kazakhstan

Central Asia witnessed progressive aridification during the Miocene, commonly related to mountain uplift, the Paratethys retreat and global climate cooling. However, the formation of Miocene lakes in Central Asia seems to oppose drier conditions, suggesting that the precise timing, extent and forcing of the aridification is still not well constrained. This study presents a facies model for the alluvial–lacustrine part of the Middle to Late Miocene of the Ili Basin, obtained from two successions. The model enables the semi‐quantitative assessment of regional water level and salinity, and characterizes the control of water level on evaporite formation and diagenesis. Both the proximal Kendyrlisai and the distal Aktau successions show an overall increase in water availability from dry mudflat deposits to lacustrine sedimentation with a transitional playa phase. Increasing evaporation rates outpaced the water supply and caused groundwater salinization. Subsequent lake expansion coincided with a basin‐wide desalinization and required a shift to a positive water budget. A climatic control of the hydrological evolution is inferred due to abrupt salinization and a minor tectonic influence. The long‐term water accumulation is probably related to the hydrological closure of the basin in the early Middle Miocene (15·3 Ma). Starting at 14·3 Ma, the step‐wise salinization occurred simultaneously with the global cooling of the Miocene Climate Transition. The Miocene Climate Transition led to extreme aridity in the Ili Basin, highlighted by the early diagenetic formation of displacive anhydrite in the basin centre. The expansion of the freshwater lake (12·7 to 11·5 Ma) was possibly promoted by lower evaporation rates due to decreasing air temperatures in the Ili Basin after the Miocene Climate Transition. The extreme aridity in the Ili Basin is interpreted as a continental counterpart to the Badenian Salinity Crisis in the Central Paratethys. This emphasizes the role of atmospheric forcing on evaporite sedimentation across Eurasia during the Middle Miocene.     

Salt water intrusion in the coastal aquifer of the southern Po Plain, Italy

Saltwater has invaded the coastal aquifer along the southern Adriatic coast of the Po Plain in Italy. The topography, morphology and land use of the region is complex: rivers, canals, wetlands, lagoons, urban, industrial and agricultural areas and tourist establishments all coexist in a small area. Water table and iso-salinity maps show that in four study areas (Ancona-Bellocchio, Marina Romea, San Vitale Forest, Cervia) out of five, the water tables are below sea level and saltwater has replaced freshwater in the aquifer. The fifth area (Classe Forest) has a relatively pristine freshwater aquifer thanks to an average water-table height of 2 m above sea level, a lower hydraulic conductivity (< 7.7 m/day) and a continuous dune system along the coast. Only in this area is the topography high enough to maintain freshwater heads that can counteract saltwater intrusion according to the Ghyben-Herzberg principle. Furthermore, the climate, with an average yearly precipitation of 606 mm and an average temperature of 14.4°C, allows for little recharge of the aquifer. Ongoing subsidence, encroachment of sea water along rivers and canals, as well as drainage from agricultural land also enhance the salinization process.     

Simulation of groundwater flow and environmental effects resulting from pumping

In coastal lowland plains, increased water demand on a limited water resource has resulted in declining groundwater levels, land subsidence and saltwater encroachment. In southwestern Kyushu, Japan, a sinking of the land surface due to over pumping of groundwater has long been recognized as a problem in the Shiroishi lowland plain. In this paper, an integrated model was established for the Shiroishi site using the modular finite difference groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, by McDonald and Harbaugh (1988) and the modular three-dimensional finite difference groundwater solute transport model, MT3D, by Zheng (1990) to simulate groundwater flow hydraulics, land subsidence, and solute transport in the alluvial lowland plain. Firstly, problems associated with these groundwater resources were discussed and then the established model was applied. The simulated results show that subsidence rapidly occurs throughout the area with the central prone in the center part of the plain. Moreover, seawater intrusion would be expected along the coast if the current rates of groundwater exploitation continue. Sensitivity analysis indicates that certain hydrogeologic parameters such as an inelastic storage coefficient of soil layers significantly contribute effects to both the rate and magnitude of consolidation. Monitoring the present salinization process is useful in determining possible threats to fresh groundwater supplies in the near future. In addition, the integrated numerical model is capable of simulating the regional trend of potentiometric levels, land subsidence and salt concentration. The study also suggests that during years of reduced surface-water availability, reduction of demand, increase in irrigation efficiency and the utilization of water exported from nearby basins are thought to be necessary for future development of the region to alleviate the effects due to pumping.     

Climate change impacts on water demand and availability using CMIP5 models in the Jaguaribe basin,semi-arid Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%).     

Geochemistry and stable isotope composition of surface waters from the Ravenna plain (Italy): implications for the management of water resources in agricultural lands

This paper examines the issues related to salinization and water quality in the complex drainage system of the historical land reclamation of Lamone basin (Ravenna coastal plain, northern Italy), with the aim of guiding ongoing agricultural-related decisions. Major and trace element concentration and O–H–B–Sr isotope-ratios were measured on surface water from a network of canals and ditches. Sampling was carried out during the winter period and in summer, to assess the effects of agricultural water management on the aquatic system. Results show widespread salinization of waters over the entire crop, due to both the direct saltwater inland flushing through the canals in proximity of the mouths, and sea salt leaching from soils. During winter, salinization is partly mitigated by rainfalls, while in summer dilution processes are due to freshwater input from outside the watershed, planned to assist the agricultural water demand. In the winter season, the concentration of some elements such as Fe, Mn, Al, and Cu in waters exceeds the maximum permissible limits imposed by the Italian regulations, while during summer the concentration of these elements is significantly reduced. A seasonal cycling is established, where the bottom sediments of canals and ditches act as sinks of harmful elements, mostly through adsorption by Fe–Mn–Al oxy-hydroxide solid phases. The irrigation practice, although improving the water quality, increases water turbidity by re-mobilization of sediments which act as transport agents of contaminants, with detrimental effects that may become significant over the years.     

陆面水文过程研究综述

在简单介绍陆面过程模式发展的基础上，从裸土蒸发、植被蒸散、土壤水传输、排水和径流等五个方面详细综述了陆面模式研究中对水文过程的参数化。目前陆面参数化方案中仍存在很大的不确定性，其中陆面水文过程参数化的关键问题包括：土壤分层、土层厚度、根带分布；参数的代表性和移植；观测资料；径流的参数化。分析了径流在陆面模式中的重要性，及目前陆面模式中对径流参数化存在的不足，介绍了部分陆面模式对径流的模拟研究，讨论了未来工作的研究重点。     

银川平原主要水环境问题及其对策

基于野外调查、取样分析以及遥感影像等,介绍了银川平原水文地质条件及水资源利用概况,探讨了土壤盐渍化、湖泊湿地萎缩、地下水盐化、地下水超采以及土地荒漠化等水环境问题及其演化成因。结果表明：银川平原地下水主要接受渠系渗漏及灌溉入渗、大气降水入渗、平原周边地下侧向径流、洪水散失、黄河水等补给,地下水排泄方式主要是排水沟排泄、蒸发和人工开采等,大部分地区潜水埋深在3 m以内;地表水主要来源于黄河引水,水资源利用效率不高;土壤盐渍化总面积8.17×104hm2,呈逐年缩减的趋势,主要分布于银川平原北部,平原南部仅分布在邵岗东部、灵武东部秦渠和东干渠等;湖泊湿地总体呈逐渐减少趋势,主要分布在银川平原北部,永宁以北、平罗以南区域比较集中,滩涂沿黄河两岸分布;潜水总含盐量自西向东、自南向北不断增大;银川和石嘴山深层地下水超采严重,地下水降落漏斗面积已超过500 km2;沙漠化土地分布在银川平原的东西两侧;土壤盐渍化及地下水盐化主要由潜水位埋深过浅,蒸发强烈造成的。最后,提出了防治上述水环境问题的对策：进一步加强水资源管理以及地表水与地下水联合调配;提高农业水资源利用效率;完善田间工程配套,实现渠道防渗管道化;改进田间灌溉技术;严格污水排放,积极开展污水净化处理,实行污水资源化;加强对水土环境质量的系统监测。     

长江源区高寒退化湿地地表蒸散特征研究

青藏高原作为“亚洲水塔”,对东亚乃至全球大气水分循环都有非常显著的影响.高寒退化湿地是高原上生态多样性的保证,也是水汽循环和地表径流的重要源地,其地气之间水分交换不但可以反映气候变化,而且也对生态环境保护具有重要意义.以长江源区隆宝滩湿地连续一年、每10分钟一次的观测资料为基础,利用FAO Penman-Monteith方法分析了长江源区高寒退化湿地蒸散量的变化特征及其与环境因子之间的关系.结果表明：1）牧草生长期,潜在蒸散量日、月变化特征显著;实际蒸散量整体表现为冬小、夏大,夏季蒸散贡献最大.2）观测期间,蒸散量远大于降水量,水分亏损严重,局地蒸散对降水的贡献较高.3）土壤温度对蒸散发过程影响显著,尤其是表层5 cm地温与蒸散发相关性较好,土壤湿度变化表明其为蒸散发过程提供了充足的水分.4）全年变化中,气温是影响蒸散的主要因素.晴天中,高寒退化湿地实际蒸散量与辐射具有几乎相同的变化趋势,气温对蒸散量影响较小,蒸散量与相对湿度呈现显著的反相关.     

湿润气候区非均匀地表平均蒸散发率参数化方案研究

从水文过程的物理机制出发,提出湿润气候区平均蒸散发率的一种统计-动力参数化方案.将陆面蒸散发过程的复杂机制分解为地表层裸土及植被两种下垫面的土壤水分饱和区与非饱和区影响下的通量贡献.从理论上推导出考虑土壤含水量次网格尺度非均匀性的区域蒸散率解析表达式.根据湿润气候区土壤水分空间分布PDF的特点,给出适用于湿润气候区的平均蒸散发计算式.以长江三角洲为例进行的数值试验证明其合理性与可行性.     

Assessment of soil salinization based on a low-cost method and its influencing factors in a semi-arid agricultural area,northwest China

An investigation of soil salinization was carried out in the Nanshantaizi area (Northwest China) with WET Sensor. This device can measure such soil parameters as bulk soil electrical conductivity, water content, and the pore water electrical conductivity that are important for soil salinization assessments. A distribution map of soil salinization was produced, and the factors influencing soil salinization and its processes were discussed in detail. The study shows that moderately salinized to salt soils are mainly observed in the alluvial plain, where groundwater level is high and lateral recharge water contains high salinity. Nanshantaizi is covered by slightly salinized soils. The soil salinization distribution estimated by WET Sensor is generally consistent with the actual levels of salinization. Soil salinity in Nanshantaizi is mostly of natural origin and accumulated salts could leach to deeper soils or aquifers by water percolation during irrigation. Groundwater evaporation, groundwater level depth and quality of recharge water are important factors influencing soil salinization in the alluvial plain.     

The Mechanism of Groundwater Salinization and Its Control in the Yaoba Oasis, Inner Mongolia

The arid area is one of the most concerned areas among the water resources researchers and economists. Northwest China will be an important developing region of China in the 21st century. Yaoba is a well-irrigation oasis within this arid area, which is located in the Alxa area west of the Helan Mountains and next to the Tengger desert in the east. It has contributed greatly to the local stock raising and agriculture since its development in 1970. However, the groundwater which the oasis depends on to survive has been getting salinized gradually and more serious in recent years.A comprehensive study was carried out using the methods of groundwater environment isotope analysis, lithofaci-es and palaeogeography, calculations of water-rock interaction and the existing form of chemical components in groundwater etc. It has been found that the salinization of groundwater is mainly caused by reinfiltration water solving the salt in soil which is deposited simultaneously with the sediments and accumulated in th     

干旱区平原绿洲散耗型水文模型——Ⅰ模型结构

针对干旱地区平原绿洲水土资源利用的特点,建立了以农区土壤水为中心的干旱区平原绿洲散耗型水文模型。散耗型模型考虑了水在不同介质和不同形态之间的交换或转化,并重点考虑人类活动如引水灌溉、地下水的开采等对水平衡的影响。模型把研究区划分为河段、泉井、水库湖泊、农区和非农区五类水均衡模块,水均衡模块之间通过地表渠系、地下水侧渗进行水量交换。应用模型可以对研究区农区、非农区各自的蒸发量、农区向非农区地下水迁移量等干旱区主要水分散耗项进行分析。     

Late prehistoric soil fertility,irrigation management,and agricultural production in northwest coastal Peru

The Pampa de Chaparrí (Pampa) in hyperarid northwest coastal Peru is an ideal area to study late prehispanic agricultural technology and production because irrigation canals and furrowed fields have been preserved since abandonment approximately 500 years ago. We collected 55 samples for soil characterization, fertility, and micromorphic analyses and compared these results to a noncultivated control soil previously sampled in an adjacent valley. Natural soil fertility levels for maize, cotton, and bean production were generally high during late prehispanic cultivation in the Pampa. Maintaining adequate nitrogren levels for production, however, would have required external inputs from livestock manure, guano, or leguminous plants. The management of low soil salinity levels was possible because of rapidly permeable soils and irrigation waters low in salt. Based on available water capacity and climate conditions, the Blaney‐Criddle Equation yields evapotranspiration rates indicating that irrigation frequency was necessary in a range of every 10–16 days during the growing season. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

干旱区平原绿洲散耗型水文模型——Ⅰ模型结构

针对干旱地区平原绿洲水土资源利用的特点,建立了以农区土壤水为中心的干旱区平原绿洲散耗型水文模型。散耗型模型考虑了水在不同介质和不同形态之间的交换或转化,并重点考虑人类活动如引水灌溉、地下水的开采等对水平衡的影响。模型把研究区划分为河段、泉井、水库湖泊、农区和非农区五类水均衡模块,水均衡模块之间通过地表渠系、地下水侧渗进行水量交换。应用模型可以对研究区农区、非农区各自的蒸发量、农区向非农区地下水迁移量等干旱区主要水分散耗项进行分析。     

土壤盐渍化与竖井排灌关系研究

以新疆地区为例，分析了该区土壤盐溃化的形成过程、类型及土壤盐渍化的原因。气候、土壤类型以及人为因素是土壤盐渍化形成的主要原因。以塔里木河流域实施竖井排灌工程的成功实例，证明竖井排灌效果。通过对竖井排灌作用机理分析及其与土壤盐渍化的关系研究，论证了在新疆地区采取竖井排灌工程的可行性和必要性。提出竖井排灌和明渠排水相结合的灌溉方式，作到合理开发利用水资源，改善生态环境。     

陇东黄土高原土壤储水量与蒸发和气候研究

利用长期土壤湿度和气候观测资料，分析了陇东黄土高原陆面蒸发和土壤储水量的年际变化及其与气候因素的关系。在近20年来，陇东黄土高陆面蒸发和土壤储水量的年际变化主要表现为逐年减少的趋势，个别季节表现为增加的趋势；年际变化的速率具有季节和空间差异性。陆面蒸发和土壤储水量随着温度的升高而减少，随着降水的增加而增加。但是陆面蒸发和土壤储水量与温度的关系不密切，与降水的关系密切。变暖不是陇东黄土高陆面蒸发和土壤储水量逐年减少的气候因素，降水的逐年减少才是陇东黄土高原陆面蒸发和土壤储水量逐年减少的气候因素。陇东黄土高原的土壤干旱化与地表蒸发关系不大，降水的逐年减少可能是土壤干旱化的根本原因。     

渤海湾西岸滨海盐渍土的盐渍化特征分析

渤海湾西岸滨海盐渍土的盐渍化特征与滨海平原的地面高程、气候条件、盐渍土的理化性状、地下水的矿化度及人类活动等密切相关。就土盐渍化的程度而言,地面高程较高处的土高于地面高程较低处的土,上层土高于下层土。受蒸发和降水影响,地下水位以上土的盐渍化敏感深度为1 m左右。随着气候的变化,滨海盐渍土显现出春季蒸发,上层土积盐;夏季淋洗,土中盐分向下移动的盐渍化特征。随着深度的增加,土的含盐量逐渐减少,至地下水位附近出现轻微增长。从剖面上地表至地下水位间可划分为3个不同聚盐形态和含盐量的土盐渍化程度分区带,即土蒸发浓缩聚盐带、土盐化变动带和土饱水溶盐带;平面上向海岸线方向延伸,土逐渐由非盐渍土变为弱盐渍土、中盐渍土和强盐渍土,含盐量和盐渍化程度也越来越高。地下水位浅和地下水矿化度高,则上层土的盐渍化程度就愈高。     

基于MODIS数据的海流兔河流域蒸散量的计算

蒸散量是水均衡和能量平衡的重要组成部分, 对全球气候的演变和水资源评价及分析研究十分重要, 而准确估算蒸散量是当今研究热点之一.采用遥感模型, 基于表面能量平衡系统的原理, 选取了MOD09地表反射率和MOD11地表温度、辐射率数据, 并结合实测的气象水文资料对该流域蒸散量进行了估算.海流兔河流域2008年全年蒸散量结果为324.94 mm.这一结果在海流兔河流域, 用水均衡法得到了很好的验证.