四个概念性水文模型在黑河流域上游的应用与比较分析

首先结合新安江模型、TopModel、HBV模型和Sacramento模型机理,从模型结构的土层划分、土壤水分计算、蒸散发计算、产流区不均匀性的考虑、产流机制、下渗机制等多个方面进行了理论上的比较,然后选择黑河流域上游为研究区,结合模拟结果对这四个概念性水文模型在黑河上游山区流域应用情况,从土壤水分、蒸散发、径流过程和各径流组分四个方面进行了分析比较。结果显示,概念性水文模型对黑河干流上游山区径流模拟有较好的模拟效果,但是对土壤水分、蒸散发等水文过程只能描述其变化趋势,难以定量,同时,我们还可以得出在所用四个模型中,HBV模型在黑河干流上游山区出山口的径流拟合中有和其他3个模型相当的Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数,并且在枯水期的表现也好,适用性最好。     

长江源区不同植被覆盖下土壤水分对降水的响应

土壤水分是连接气候变化和植被覆盖动态的关键因子,以长江源区北麓河一级支流左冒西孔曲典型小流域为研究对象,通过观测降水特征、植被覆盖情况、土壤特性、土壤水分变化、入渗过程以及蒸散发和凝结,分析了不同植被覆盖下土壤水分变化与降水之间的响应关系.结果表明:研究区内高寒草甸土壤水分对降水的响应存在十分明显的滞后现象,滞后时间较长;当植被退化较为严重时,20 cm深度范围内土壤水分对降水有一定响应,深层土壤比较干燥,对降水的响应微弱;在保持其原有植物建群和较高覆盖度时,土壤持水能力增强,深层土壤含水量明显提高,土壤水分变化剧烈,对降水的响应深度达到40 cm以下.较高的植被覆盖能有效改善土壤物理结构、提高土壤有机质含量,促进降水入渗.植物根系导致的较大孔隙优先流运动以及根系吸水作用影响了土壤水分对降水的响应和土壤水分的空间分布.不同植被覆盖度下,土壤水分的蒸散发与凝结具有明显差异,高覆盖度的高寒草甸土壤,蒸散发量较小,凝结水量较大.     

草原化荒漠带人工固沙植丛区土壤水分动态

研究土壤水分动态有助于在水文过程与生态格局之间建立定量的联系。以大型自动称重式蒸渗仪为试验设施,对草原化荒漠带固沙植丛区与无植被沙区土壤水分动态及蒸散发进行对比研究。结果表明,观测期内植丛区及无植被沙区土壤水分变化均与降水过程高度相关,油蒿与柠条植丛区总蒸散量大体相当,平均蒸散速率分别为1.31mm/d,1.22mm/d。受固沙植物种生育期差异与降水年内分配变化的综合影响,当经历连续30多天无雨期时,柠条植丛区土壤水分骤降,根系密集区土壤体积含水率降低至0.5%以下,平均蒸散速率由前期的2.2mm/d降至0.6mm/d。油蒿植丛区土壤体积含水率在1%左右变化,平均蒸散速率由1.8mm/d降为0.9mm/d,仍高于柠条植丛区达50%。无植被沙区土壤体积含水率保持在大于2%的水平,平均蒸发速率由1.1mm/d减小至0.4mm/d,平均为0.78mm/d,约为植丛区平均蒸散速率的60%。土壤深层渗漏量达113.4mm,占降水量的40.5%,渗漏速率平均为0.63mm/d。人工固沙植被有效地利用了这部分降水资源,使得植丛区土壤水分无深层渗漏。     

黄土高原北部土地利用变化对长期土壤水分平衡影响模拟

为探明土地利用变化对黄土高原长期土壤水分平衡的影响,利用校验的Hydrus-1D模型模拟黄土高原北部神木六道沟小流域1981—2050年农耕地—苜蓿草地—天然草地情景下0~4 m土壤水分变化过程,量化土壤储水量、深层渗漏和蒸散发等水文变量的演变特征。结果显示:①农耕地期间年降水的88%为蒸散发消耗,11%为渗漏损失。②苜蓿草地种植后6 a内,蒸散发大幅增加至年降水的108%,土壤水分负平衡,0~4 m土壤储水量以52 mm/a的速率降低;至7~13 a,年降水几乎全部被蒸散发消耗。③苜蓿草地转变为天然草地后,蒸散发量下降31%,土壤水分以45 mm/a的速率逐渐补给,之后年降水量的92%用于蒸散发,8%为渗漏消耗,土壤水分处于相对稳定状态。研究表明不同土地利用方式下的土壤水分平衡模式具有显著差异,种植高耗水植被可造成土壤水分负平衡,导致土壤干燥化,进而对土壤水分补给产生负面效应,改变植被类型可使土壤干层得到有效改善。     

基于土壤植被不同参数化方法的流域蒸散发模拟

植被和土壤是水循环中的重要载体,模拟流域水循环时植被和土壤的参数化也显得尤为重要。通过对比流域蒸散发模拟中分布式模型和集总式概念模型的土壤植被参数化方法,计算了潘家口水库流域不同时间尺度上的流域蒸散发,分析了不同时间尺度下流域蒸散发的影响因素。通过分析得出:(1)分布式水文模型中的植被参数化方法包括对植被时空分布与变化的描述,以及与之相关的土壤-植被-大气中水分和能量的传输过程的描述。(2)从GBHM模型与流域水热耦合平衡模型的对比分析可知,在流域尺度上,年实际蒸散发与潜在蒸散发之间呈互补的高度非线性关系;但在山坡和小时时间尺度上,实际蒸散发与潜在蒸散发之间呈正比关系,并可近似为线性正比关系。(3)基于流域水热耦合平衡模型在不同时间尺度的参数化分析可知,考虑植被土壤水分和植被覆盖度能改善对流域蒸散发的年际和季节变化的模拟精度;土壤水分和植被的影响随着时间尺度变小表现得越来越显著。     

潜在蒸散发量计算公式在贵州省适用性分析

利用贵州省18个气象站1961~2001年逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith方程计算潜在蒸散发量,对以辐射和气温为基础的简化公式参数进行率定,对比分析不同计算公式推求的潜在蒸散发量之间的差异以及用于气候变化情景下预测适用程度。结果表明,各种潜在蒸散发量公式经参数率定后计算的多年平均蒸散发量相近,但变化趋势存在较大差异。与考虑综合气象因子对潜在蒸散发影响的Penman-Monteith公式计算结果相比,以辐射为基础的蒸散发公式在该地区的适用性较好,以气温为基础的蒸散发公式用于气候变化情景下潜在蒸散发量预测,结果偏大。     

基于水文模型的蒸散发数据同化实验研究

流域蒸散发定量估算一直是水科学领域的研究前沿,水文模型和遥感反演是当前估算区域蒸散发的常用手段。研究通过数据同化,集成水文模型和遥感模型的优势,耦合遥感蒸散发到水文模型中以实现多源数据下的蒸散发数据同化。选择北京市沙河流域为研究区,分布式时变增益水文模型作为模型算子,基于集合卡尔曼滤波同化算法,利用双层遥感模型模拟的蒸散发同化水文模型,并基于地面通量站观测的日蒸散发进行验证。结果表明,同化结果与观测数据相比平均绝对百分比误差较同化前减少,精度进一步提升,且当遥感观测输入频繁时精度改善明显。研究证明基于水文模型的蒸散发数据同化系统,是一种可实现输出精度更高和时序连续的区域蒸散发的新型模式。该成果将进一步丰富创新蒸散发估算的学科内容,为准确理解区域水循环规律提供科学依据。     

区域综合蒸散发量计算方法研究

在充分消化吸收前人成果的基础上,通过对研究区不同下垫面条件、作物种植情况及供水条件进行全面调查,将研究区划分为城区、山区、平原区3种类型区,并对每种类型区分别按水体、透水区、不透水区计算其蒸散发量,然后合并求得各类型区总蒸散发量,建立了以城区、山区、平原区蒸散发量计算为子模型的区域综合蒸散发量计算模型。     

近40年来青藏高原典型高寒草原和湿地蒸散发变化的对比分析

青藏高原地表蒸散发是决定亚洲水塔水储量变化的关键要素.在快速升温背景下,长时间尺度的青藏高原地表蒸散发如何响应气候变化亟需深入探讨.以青藏高原两种典型高寒生态系统(草原和湿地)为研究对象,以野外观测和互补蒸散发模型为研究手段,利用常规气象资料驱动互补蒸散发模型,应用于青藏高原的典型资料稀缺地区,并就模拟结果进行验证评估,揭示了两种典型高寒生态系统近40年的蒸散发变化特征.结果 表明,校正参数后的非线性互补蒸散发模型可较为准确地模拟两种下垫面的蒸散发,亦即该模型在青藏高原资料稀缺区具有较好的应用潜力.1973-2013年,青藏高原典型高寒草原蒸散发呈不显著的增大趋势,而高寒湿地则以2.0 mm/a的速率显著增大.相关分析表明,高寒草原和湿地蒸散发的年际变化主要与水汽压(即空气湿度)有关.阶段性分析发现,1970s至1990s末期,两种生态系统蒸散发皆在波动中逐渐增大;而1997年以后,高寒草原和高寒湿地蒸散发的变化模式表现出明显差异:前者在波动中逐渐减小,后者则持续增大至2000s中期.造成这种差异的原因可归结为高寒湿地受冰川融水的影响,土壤含水量可维持在较高的水平,加之2000s高寒湿地的水汽压和日照时数增大,使得该时段内地表蒸散发仍呈增大之势,亦即上游的冰川融水对下游的湿地蒸散发有重要影响.结果 表明,空间距离较近的两种典型高寒生态系统,由于所受水源补给不同,局地蒸散发对气候变化的响应模式可能有较大差异.     

青藏高原多年冻土退化对蒸散发的影响

青藏高原作为“亚洲水塔”对气候变化极为敏感,研究气候变化下青藏高原多年冻土退化对蒸散发的影响有助于理解多年冻土地区水文过程对气候变化的响应情况。基于Budyko-Fu假设,构建了考虑多年冻土活动层厚度变化的水热耦合模型,建立了符合青藏高原多年冻土区的模型参数化方案,通过设置情景假设探讨了多年冻土退化对蒸散发的影响。模拟结果表明:1982—2018年青藏高原多年冻土区平均年蒸散发为275.6 mm,空间分布由东南向西北递减;研究区年蒸散发整体上以3.57 mm/a的速率上升。多年冻土活动层加深会引起蒸散发的增大,忽略冻土退化因素将导致约2.2%的蒸散发低估。冻土退化对蒸散发的影响呈现显著的空间异质性,土壤有效含水量和植被覆盖度越低的地区,蒸散发对冻土退化的响应越敏感。     

长江源区高寒退化湿地地表蒸散特征研究

青藏高原作为“亚洲水塔”,对东亚乃至全球大气水分循环都有非常显著的影响.高寒退化湿地是高原上生态多样性的保证,也是水汽循环和地表径流的重要源地,其地气之间水分交换不但可以反映气候变化,而且也对生态环境保护具有重要意义.以长江源区隆宝滩湿地连续一年、每10分钟一次的观测资料为基础,利用FAO Penman-Monteith方法分析了长江源区高寒退化湿地蒸散量的变化特征及其与环境因子之间的关系.结果表明：1）牧草生长期,潜在蒸散量日、月变化特征显著;实际蒸散量整体表现为冬小、夏大,夏季蒸散贡献最大.2）观测期间,蒸散量远大于降水量,水分亏损严重,局地蒸散对降水的贡献较高.3）土壤温度对蒸散发过程影响显著,尤其是表层5 cm地温与蒸散发相关性较好,土壤湿度变化表明其为蒸散发过程提供了充足的水分.4）全年变化中,气温是影响蒸散的主要因素.晴天中,高寒退化湿地实际蒸散量与辐射具有几乎相同的变化趋势,气温对蒸散量影响较小,蒸散量与相对湿度呈现显著的反相关.     

Effect of climate change on the trends of evaporation of phreatic water from bare soil in Huaibei Plain,China

When the soil condition and depth to water table stay constant, climate condition will then be the only determinant of evaporation intensity of phreatic water from bare soil. Based on a series of long-term quality-controlled data collected at the Wudaogou Hydrological Experiment Station in the Huaibei Plain, Anhui, China, the variation trends of the evaporation rate of phreatic water from bare soil were studied through the Mann-Kendall trend test and the linear regression trend test, followed by the study on the responses of evaporation to climate change. Results indicated that in the Huaibei Plain during 1991-2008, evaporation of phreatic water from bare soil tended to increase at a rate of 5% on monthly scale in March, June and July while in other months the increase was minor. On the seasonal basis, the evaporation saw significant increase in spring and summer. In addition, annual evaporation tended to grow evidently over time. When air temperature rises by 1 °C, the annual evaporation rate increases by 7.24–14.21%, while when the vapor pressure deficit rises by 10%, it changes from-0.09 to 5.40%. The study also provides references for further understanding of the trends and responses of regional evapotranspiration to climate change.     

灌溉对景泰灌区年潜在蒸散量的影响

基于蒸散发互补相关原理,定量分析和预测了引黄灌溉发展对甘肃景泰灌区年潜在蒸散量的影响。景泰灌区从1972年开始引黄灌溉,年蒸发皿蒸发量和潜在蒸散量随着灌溉引水消耗的增大而减小,其中空气动力学项下降的趋势非常明显,潜在蒸散量的变化主要受到风速下降和相对湿度增大的影响,与引黄灌溉有密切关系。根据互补相关平流-干旱模型分析了年潜在蒸散量随灌区耗水量的变化规律,并在假定年降水量和年潜在蒸散量中辐射项保持多年平均值的情况下,预测了不同耗水量情景下的年潜在蒸散量。     

Spatio-temporal variability in remotely sensed surface soil moisture and its relationship with precipitation and evapotranspiration during the growing season in the Loess Plateau,China

The distribution and variability of surface soil moisture at regional scales is still poorly understood in the Loess Plateau of China. Spatial and temporal dynamics of surface soil moisture is important due to its impact on vegetation growth and its potential feedback to atmospheric and hydrologic processes. In this study, we analyzed surface soil moisture dynamics and the impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration on surface soil moisture using remote sensing data during the growing season in 2011 for the Loess Plateau, which contain surface soil moisture, precipitation, vegetation index and evapotranspiration. Results indicate that the areas with low surface soil moisture are mainly located in the semi-arid region. Under dry surface soil moisture, evapotranspiration temporal persistence has a higher positive correlation (0.537) with surface soil moisture temporal persistence, and evapotranspiration is very sensitive to surface soil moisture. But under wet surface soil moisture regime, surface soil moisture temporal persistence has a higher negative correlation (?0.621) with evapotranspiration temporal persistence. Correlation of surface soil moisture and monthly precipitation, evapotranspiration and vegetation index illustrated that precipitation was a significant factor influencing surface soil moisture spatial variance. The correlation coefficients between monthly surface soil moisture and precipitation was varied in different climatic regions, which was 0.304 in arid, 0.364 in semi-arid, 0.490 in transitional and 0.300 in semi-humid regions. Surface soil moisture is more sensitive to precipitation, evapotranspiration, in transitional regions between dry and wet climates.     

Experimental evaluation and parameterization of evaporation from soil surface

Surface evaporation is one of the main processes in the soil–atmosphere interaction. Since it is highly related to meteorological factors and soil properties, determination of evaporation rate from soil surface remains a challenge. To investigate the evaporation from unsaturated soil, a climate control apparatus has been newly developed, which has a feature of completely controlling air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed. Twelve climatic conditions are applied to three kinds of soil specimens to carry out the evaporation tests. The results show that only water content cannot allow an accurate estimation, additional variables accounting for soil texture and wind speed must be included as well. Moreover, a simple approach to parameterize evaporation is presented by the soil moisture θ of top 1-cm layer with considering the effect of soil texture and wind speed. It is found that the new approach is able to accurately estimate the evaporation from unsaturated soil.     

陆面水文过程研究综述

在简单介绍陆面过程模式发展的基础上，从裸土蒸发、植被蒸散、土壤水传输、排水和径流等五个方面详细综述了陆面模式研究中对水文过程的参数化。目前陆面参数化方案中仍存在很大的不确定性，其中陆面水文过程参数化的关键问题包括：土壤分层、土层厚度、根带分布；参数的代表性和移植；观测资料；径流的参数化。分析了径流在陆面模式中的重要性，及目前陆面模式中对径流参数化存在的不足，介绍了部分陆面模式对径流的模拟研究，讨论了未来工作的研究重点。     

Climate and water budget change of a Mediterranean coastal watershed, Ravenna, Italy

It is generally difficult to quantify exactly the freshwater going in or out of the coastal watersheds along the northern Adriatic Sea because, on one hand, excess water is drained and pumped into the sea to prevent flooding but, on the other hand, water is brought onto the land from far away for irrigation. Fragmentation of water authorities makes it difficult to collect all the necessary information. Climate change and increasing salinization of the coastal aquifers make it imperative, however, to better know the quantities of freshwater involved in these small basins. The water budget of a small coastal agricultural watershed along the Adriatic Sea in Italy (The Quinto Basin near Ravenna) is presented here considering different land uses. The evaporation of open water and the evapotranspiration of wetlands, pine forests, bare soil and irrigated agriculture are calculated based on the Penman–Monteith equation and the Cropwat program. The current water budget is based on average climate data from 1989 to 2008 and drainage and irrigation data. Predictions for future evapotranspiration, net irrigation and hydrologic deficit are calculated with climate data from IPCC (The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) 200, Climate change 2007). From the study results, the soil type may determine whether or not a crop will need more or less irrigation in the future. Regulations on land use should therefore consider which crop type can be grown on a specific soil type. Water budget analysis in scenarios A1b and A2 both show an increase of water deficits in the summer and an increase of water surplus in the winter. This is explained by the fact that a larger percentage of the rain will fall in winter and not during the growth season. The open water evaporation will decrease under future climate scenarios as a result of increased relative humidity in winter and decreased wind velocity. This may have a positive effect on the water cycle. The current irrigation is very abundant, but has beneficial effects in contrasting soil salinization and saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer.     

寒旱区草地不对称增温现象对蒸散发的影响分析

选取1981—2020年海拉尔河流域及周边地区气象站点观测资料, 结合水文数据, 利用适用于植被稀疏下垫面的BTOP(Block-wise use of TOPMODEL)分布式水文模型估算区域蒸散发量, 进而在不对称增温现象影响下, 分析其对蒸散发的影响特征。结果表明: ①流域内1981—2020年不对称增温现象显著, 主要表现为因夜间温度升幅较大为主的昼夜不对称增温及地表温度升幅较大为主的地气不对称增温; ②影响蒸散发的主要气象因子依次为相对湿度、风速、地气温差、地表温度和昼夜温差, 且相对湿度、昼夜温差及地气温差与蒸散发量变化趋势相反, 其中相对湿度及风速影响强度年际变化平稳, 温度因子影响强度则逐年增强; ③不对称增温对于流域蒸散发量的影响逐年增强, 地表增温速率的增强是造成地气不对称增温的主要原因, 在此影响下, 区域蒸散发呈现减小趋势, 故在探究蒸散发量变化原因时, 温差变化不可忽视。     

基于区域气候模式的流域农业干旱成因分析

以湄公河流域为研究区,采用区域气候模式RegCM3为模拟工具,以根系层土壤含水量为代表性指标,对A1B情景下未来研究区月尺度农业干旱进行了预估。基于地表能量平衡原理,系统分析了降水、蒸发、地表温度和根系层土壤含水量等农业干旱主要影响因素与区域气候模式模拟的大气环流、地表感热通量、地表潜热通量、地表净通量之间的联系和变化规律,从气陆间能量和水汽通量平衡角度,对农业干旱发生机理进行了识别。预估结果表明:从年内各月地表净通量和地表温度变化来看,未来春末(6月)和秋末(10月)湄公河流域温度增加明显,且土壤含水量减少也较为明显;同时,这两个时段蒸发旺盛和降水减少的趋势,有可能导致流域局部地区(尤其是非灌溉农业区)农业干旱的发生。