全球海啸地震震源机制解及海啸成因探讨

海啸作为五大海洋自然灾害之一,严重威胁着人类生命财产安全。近些年来,国内外学者对地震海啸进行了大量研究,主要针对海啸的生成、传播、爬高和淹没的数值模拟,以及古海啸沉积物进行研究,但是对于海啸地震震源机制的研究还比较欠缺,尤其是缺乏对震级小于6.5的海啸地震的研究。针对我国的地震海啸研究现状,强调震级小于6.5地震引发海啸的问题不容忽视。本文归纳整理了全球766次地震海啸,利用三角图分类基本法则对海啸地震震源机制解进行分类,并对其中341个发生在1976年后的海啸地震进行震源机制解分析,对其中633次海啸浪高进行统计学方法分析研究。本文认为逆冲型、正断型、走滑型和奇异型机制地震均能引发海啸,逆冲型地震引发的海啸占比最大,震级小于6.5级地震引发的海啸的浪高也有高达10 m的情况,也能产生巨大破坏性。逆冲型、正断型、奇异型地震可直接引起海底地形垂向变化,进而引发海啸,而走滑型地震引发海啸则可能有两种原因,一种是走滑型地震并非纯走滑型而是带有正断或逆冲分量从而引发海啸,另外一种是走滑型地震引发海底滑坡导致海底地形变化进而产生海啸。从海啸地震震源深度分析,能产生海啸的地震震源深度97%以上都是浅源地震,主要集中在30 km深度以内,但是也有中深源地震海啸。本文综合海啸地震的震源特点、我国地理位置以及以往海啸发生的情况,认为未来我国沿海地区威胁性的地震海啸主要集中在马尼拉海沟和台湾海峡区域,在今后海啸预警方面需要格外重视这些区域,通过建立完善海啸预警系统来减少损失。     

试用地球系统科学观解读2004年印度洋地震海啸

2004年印度洋地震海啸是本世纪初全球发生的最为惨重的自然灾害.这次地震海啸涉及地球的岩石圈、水圈、大气圈和生物圈,甚至还有地外星球和月球的作用,造成能量与物质之间的相互转化与传递,说明地球是一个完整的统一整体.因此,对地震海啸等自然灾害必须采用地球系统科学观进行分析和研究,找出彼此之间的相互关系、形成机制和演化规律,并用信息化、全球化和可持续发展的地球科学观来研究和防御地震海啸.     

地震海啸及其对上海的影响

地震海啸曾对某些沿海国家造成巨大灾害,其规模大小是与地震震级(≥7)、震源深度(≤40 km)、波源区水深(≥1000 m)以及沿岸地形是否有利于能量集中等要素有关。本文在丰富的史料基础上,对比我国沿海及世界6级以上地震后认为,我国文献中的海啸绝大多数属气象海啸,地震海啸仅有9次,对我国沿海地区的影响微弱,上海虽有数次波及,规模(m)均≤0,未引起任何灾害。因此,就地震海啸而言,上海是安全的,勿需采取相应的防御对策。     

印度洋地震海啸(2004-12-26)及其对中国的警示

2004年12月26日印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛西北近海发生ML9级强烈地震。地震的强度是100a来全球非常罕见的。地震引起了巨大海啸,浪高近10m,波及到东南亚、南亚和东非地区10多个国家,造成近30万人遇难。地震使印度尼西亚、泰国的部分岛屿发生了地形变化。海啸在受灾国留下了大片的盐碱地。苏门答腊板块边缘的一个长距离破裂带通过长时间积累,蓄积了巨大能量。这些能量在2004-12-26集中释放出来。导致了这次地震海啸的发生。地震海啸灾害本身规模巨大,发生异常突然,再加上受灾地区人员密集,缺乏海啸灾害逃生的知识和经验。印度洋沿岸国家没有海啸预警系统,是造成这次灾害巨大伤亡的原因。中国从台湾-海南岛一线的海区,存在地震海啸的可能性。因此应不断完善海啸预警系统,提高沿海地区建设工程的防灾抗灾标准,加强防波堤建设以及采取恢复红树林等生物工程措施,预防潜在的海啸灾害。     

地震与海啸关系探讨

本文探讨了海啸、地震和它们的成因。作者认为,破坏性地震常伴生着破坏性海啸,但地震不会直接引发海啸。构造地震和地壳变动型海啸之间不是因果关系,而是伴生或共生关系。此外,本文还探讨了破坏性海啸的形成条件和控制地震震级的主要因素。     

板块内部地震预报研究

板块内部地震的预报是一个世界性的科学难题。攻克这个难题的努力可以分成两个方面:一是以确定板块内部未来地震的地点和强度为主的长期预报研究,包括板内地震的构造环境和孕育过程的阶段性特征,大陆地区强震危险性和地震灾害的预测等。二是以确定未来地震发生时间为主的短期预报研究,包括强化地震前兆的观测以及前兆的分析和机理研究。     

也说海啸

海啸,主要是海底发生较大地震(>615级)引起。海底火山爆发及山崩也可能引发,但规模小,危害不大。海洋中大于615级的地震很多,能引发海啸的约占1%。其中环太平洋地震带中约占80%,印度洋、大西洋约各占10%。过去认为世界上受海啸威胁的仅是环太平洋地震带中的夏威夷、智利、日本等少数国家。没有料及印度洋的印度尼西亚、斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、泰国等会受海啸的威胁。1868年8月8日智利—秘鲁边界大地震、1877年5月7日智利伊基克大地震、1933年3月2日日本三陆大地震、1946年4月1日阿留申群岛尼马克大地震、1960年5月21日智利大地震、1964年3月28…     

应对地震 美国以预防为主

5月12日,四川汶川发生了8．0级特大地震灾害。这是人类的又一场灾难,也震惊了全世界。悲伤过后,我们痛定思痛,在科技发展到今天的21世纪,人类对地震科学的预报仍在黑暗中摸索前行。尽管科学家目前还没有很好的办法精确预报地震的发生,但是,面对地震,我们不能坐等地震预报的奇迹瞬间发生。我们要发挥所有潜能主动出击,在地震预报上尽全力做得更科学、更理性。本期我们刊登美国和日本的地震预防经验,以期对我们的地震预报预防工作有所借鉴。     

视角

①3月11日，日本发生里氏9级地震。地震引发剧烈的海啸．图I是日本发生海啸前、后的卫星遥感图，它们清晰显示了海啸对日本造成多么严重的破坏 ②“3．11”日本地震引起全球关注的福岛核电站事故．由此引发“日本地震，中国抢盐”这样啼笑皆非的事件。     

论海啸作用与海啸岩

海啸（或称津浪,ｔｓｕｎａｍｉ）是海底地震（海震）、火山爆发等因素引发的巨浪。海啸可能在海底形成特殊的事件沉积－－海啸岩。海啸岩主要由具丘状层理、平行层理、块状层理及交错层理的粗碎屑岩或碎屑灰岩组成,它们与触发海啸的地震、形成的震稷岩、火山岩紧密共生。根据云南滇中地区中元古代昆阳群大龙口组的观测研究,认为大龙口组中存在典型的震积岩（包括震裂岩、震褶岩、自碎屑角砾岩）。与之共生的具丘状层理、平行层理     

The Seismic Project of the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

In 1997, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the five western States of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington joined in a partnership called the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to enhance the quality and quantity of seismic data provided to the NOAA tsunami warning centers in Alaska and Hawaii. The NTHMP funded a seismic project that now provides the warning centers with real-time seismic data over dedicated communication links and the Internet from regional seismic networks monitoring earthquakes in the five western states, the U.S. National Seismic Network in Colorado, and from domestic and global seismic stations operated by other agencies. The goal of the project is to reduce the time needed to issue a tsunami warning by providing the warning centers with high-dynamic range, broadband waveforms in near real time. An additional goal is to reduce the likelihood of issuing false tsunami warnings by rapidly providing to the warning centers parametric information on earthquakes that could indicate their tsunamigenic potential, such as hypocenters, magnitudes, moment tensors, and shake distribution maps. New or upgraded field instrumentation was installed over a 5-year period at 53 seismic stations in the five western states. Data from these instruments has been integrated into the seismic network utilizing Earthworm software. This network has significantly reduced the time needed to respond to teleseismic and regional earthquakes. Notably, the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center responded to the 28 February 2001 Mw 6.8 Nisqually earthquake beneath Olympia, Washington within 2 minutes compared to an average response time of over 10 minutes for the previous 18 years.     

The 1996 Sulawesi Tsunami

On 1 January, 1996 at 16:05 p.m. local time, an earthquake of magnitude M = 7.8 struck the central part of Sulawesi Island (Indonesia). It was accompanied by tsunami waves 2–4 m high. Nine people were killed and 63 were injured. A tsunami survey was conducted by Indonesian and Russian specialists. The measured tsunami runup heights and eyewitness accounts are reported and discussed. Historical data on the Sulawesi Island tsunamis are analysed and tsunami risk prediction in the central part of Sulawesi Island carried out for the first time.     

Use of tsunami waveforms for earthquake source study

Tsunami waveforms recorded on tide gauges, like seismic waves recorded on seismograms, can be used to study earthquake source processes. The tsunami propagation can be accurately evaluated, since bathymetry is much better known than seismic velocity structure in the Earth. Using waveform inversion techniques, we can estimate the spatial distribution of coseismic slip on the fault plane from tsunami waveforms. This method has been applied to several earthquakes around Japan. Two recent earthquakes, the 1968 Tokachi-oki and 1983 Japan Sea earthquakes, are examined for calibration purposes. Both events show nonuniform slip distributions very similar to those obtained from seismic wave analyses. The use of tsunami waveforms is more useful for the study of unusual or old earthquakes. The 1984 Torishima earthquake caused unusually large tsunamis for its earthquake size. Waveform modeling of this event shows that part of the abnormal size of this tsunami is due to the propagation effect along the shallow ridge system. For old earthquakes, many tide gauge records exist with quality comparable to modern records, while there are only a few good quality seismic records. The 1944 Tonankai and 1946 Nankaido earthquakes are examined as examples of old events, and slip distributions are obtained. Such estimates are possible only using tsunami records. Since tide-gauge records are available as far back as the 1850s, use of them will provide unique and important information on long-term global seismicity.     

Tsunamis in and near Greece and their relation to the earthquake focal mechanisms

The major earthquake-induced tsunamis reliable known to have occurred in and near Greece since antiquity are considered in the light of the recently obtained reliable data on the mechanisms and focal depths of the earthquakes occurring here. (The earthquake data concern the major shocks of the period 1962–1986.) First, concise information is given on the most devastating tsunamis. Then the relation between the (estimated) maximum tsunami intensity and the earthquake parameters (mechanism and focal depth) is examined. It is revealed that the most devastating tsunamis took place in areas (such as the western part of the Corinthiakos Gulf, the Maliakos Gulf, and the southern Aegean Sea) where earthquakes are due to shallow normal faulting. Other major tsunamis were nucleated along the convex side of the Hellenic arc, characterized by shallow thrust earthquakes. It is probably somewhere there (most likely south of Crete) that the region's largest known tsunami occurred in AD 365, claiming many lives and causing extensive devastation in the entire eastern Mediterranean. Such big tsunamis seem to have a return period of well over 1000 years and can be generated by large shallow earthquakes associated with thrust faulting beneath the Hellenic trench, where the African plate subduces under the Euroasian plate. Lesser tsunamis are known in the northernmost part of the Aegean Sea and in the Sea of Marmara, where strike-slip faulting is observed. Finally, an attempt is made to combine the tsunami and earthquake data into a map of the region's main tsunamigenic zones (areas of the sea bed believed responsible for past tsunamis and expected to nucleate tsunamis in the future).     

Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Coasts of Peru and Northern Chile

Data for tsunamigenic earthquakes and observed tsunami run-up are used to estimate tsunami-risk for the coasts of Peru and northern Chile for zones bounded by 5–35° S latitude. Tsunamigenic earthquake estimates yield magnitudes of 8.52, 8.64, and 8.73 for recurrence periods of 50, 100, and 200 years, respectively. Based on three different empirical relations between earthquake magnitudes and tsunamis, we estimate expected tsunami wave heights for various return periods. The average heights were 11.2 m (50 years), 13.7 m (100 years), and 15.9 m (200 years), while the maximum height values (obtained by Iidas method) were: 13.9, 17.3, and 20.4 m, respectively. Both the averaged and maximum seismological estimates of tsunami wave heights for this region are significantly smaller than the actually observed tsunami run-up of 24–28 m, for the major events of 1586, 1724, 1746, 1835, and 1877. Based directly on tsunami run-up data, we estimate tsunami wave heights of 13 m for a 50-year return period and 25 m for a 100-year return period. According to the seismic gap theory, we can expect that the next strong earthquake and tsunami will occur between 19 and 28° S in the vicinity of northern Chile.     

Assessment of the tsunami hazard on the Russian coast based on a new catalogue of tsunamis in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov

We present the results of work on the compilation of a fuller and more comprehensive historical catalogue of earthquakes and tsunamis in the basin of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, an area of primary importance for the Russian Federation. In the 20th century, there were no significant tsunamis in the Black Sea; therefore, its coast was not considered tsunami-prone. A systematic search for new data sources, a revision of earlier ones, and the use of new approaches to the identification of tsunamigenic events resulted in a more than doubling of the number of known tsunamigenic events in this basin, bringing it up to 50. The total length of the new tsunami catalogue reached 3000 years, which makes it the second longest after the Mediterranean tsunami catalogue (about 4000 years). Taking into account the seismotectonic features of the Black Sea region, we processed data on historical tsunamis and analyzed the geographical and temporal distributions of their sources. For all tsunamigenic events we performed a parameterization of available information about their sources and coastal manifestations, evaluated the tsunami intensity based on the Soloviev-Imamura scale, and proposed a classification of tsunami and tsunami-like water wave disturbances based on their genesis. Tsunami run-up heights, inland penetration, and damage were estimated with regard for the newly found data. Among the identified historical events, there are devastating tsunamis with run-ups of 4-5 m, sometimes up to 6-8 m, which resulted in disastrous consequences for several ancient cities (Dioscuria, Sebastopolis, Bizone, and Panticapaeum) and many coastal settlements. Expert assessments of the most tsunami-prone areas of the coasts are given.     

2004年12月26日苏门答腊-安达曼大地震构造特征及地震海啸灾害

2004年12月26日在印度尼西亚苏门答腊岛西侧海域发生的地震是自1964 年阿拉斯加大地震以来最大的地震,震级达到9级或9级以上。它是由印度洋板块向缅甸微板块底下俯冲过程中的逆断层作用造成的。印度洋板块以每年6~7 cm的速率向北北东方向运动,与南亚板块发生斜向聚敛俯冲,此运动在该地区解耦为印度洋板块沿巽他海沟的正向俯冲及缅甸微板块东侧的右旋走向平移运动。主震破裂模型研究的结果表明,破裂是由南向北传播的,地震破裂带长达1 200余km,宽度约100 km,最大位移约为20 m,地震断层向上穿透海沟底面,估计约有10 m左右的错距。这次大地震的同震效应导致地球自转轴摆动、地球自转加速,日长缩短。据目前统计,地震引发的大海啸造成305 276人死亡,被此次海啸夺走生命的人数超过了有史以来历次大海啸灾难中死亡人数的总和。