Possible Short-Term Precursors of Strong Crustal Earthquakes in Japan based on Data from the Ground Stations of Vertical Ionospheric Sounding

We have studied changes in the ionosphere prior to strong crustal earthquakes with magnitudes of М ≥ 6.5 based on the data from the ground-based stations of vertical ionospheric sounding Kokobunji, Akita, and Wakkanai for the period 1968–2004. The data are analyzed based on hourly measurements of the virtual height and frequency parameters of the sporadic E layer and critical frequency of the regular F2 layer over the course of three days prior to the earthquakes. In the studied intervals of time before all earthquakes, anomalous changes were discovered both in the frequency parameters of the Es and F2 ionospheric layers and in the virtual height of the sporadic E layer; the changes were observed on the same day at stations spaced apart by several hundred kilometers. A high degree of correlation is found between the lead-time of these ionospheric anomalies preceding the seismic impact and the magnitude of the subsequent earthquakes. It is concluded that such ionospheric disturbances can be short-term ionospheric precursors of earthquakes.     

Effects of the solar eclipse of March 29, 2006, in the ionosphere and atmosphere

The observations of the effects of the partial (about 77%) solar eclipse (SE) of March 29, 2006, in the ionospheric plasma are presented. The experimental data were obtained using the Kharkov incoherent scatter radar. At the moment of the maximum phase of SE, a decrease in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer by 18%, a depletion of the density in the F ₂ layer maximum by 33%, and an increase in the maximum height z _m by 30 km were observed. The solar eclipse caused a decrease in the electron and ion temperatures by 150–300 and 100–200 K, respectively, within the height range 210–490 km. An increase in the relative density of the hydrogen ions during the maximum phase of SE by 20–25% within the height range 900–1200 km is detected. Calculations of the parameters of dynamical processes and thermal regime of the ionospheric plasma during SE are performed.     

Long-term trends in the ratio of the daytime and nighttime values of <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2

The consideration of the relation between the daytime and nighttime values of the critical frequency F2, foF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer, started in the previous publication of the authors, is continued. The main regularities in variations in the correlation coefficient R(foF2) characterizing this relation are confirmed using larger statistical material (more ionospheric stations and longer observational series). Long-term trends in the R(foF2) value are found: at all stations the negative value of R(foF2) increases with time after 1980.     

Behavior of Parameters of Enhancements in the Nighttime Electron Concentration in the Ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 Layer

We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N _m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h _Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h _m F, while h _Am is always less than h _m F. The difference between h _Am and h _m F linearly increases with increasing h _m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h _m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h _m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN _m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.     

Properties of solar activity and ionosphere for solar cycle 25

Based on the known forecast of solar cycle 25 amplitude (Rz _max ≈ 50), the first assessments of the shape and amplitude of this cycle in the index of solar activity F10.7 (the magnitude of solar radio flux at the 10.7 cm wavelength) are given. It has been found that (F10.7)_max ≈ 115, which means that it is the lowest solar cycle ever encountered in the history of regular ionospheric measurements. For this reason, many ionospheric parameters for cycle 25, including the F2-layer peak height and critical frequency (hmF2 and foF2), will be extremely low. For example, at middle latitudes, typical foF2 values will not exceed 8–10 MHz, which makes ionospheric heating ineffective in the area of upper hybrid resonance at frequencies higher than 10 MHz. The density of the atmosphere will also be extremely low, which significantly extends the lifetime of low-orbit satellites. The probability of F-spread will be increased, especially during night hours.     

Variations in the fractal dimension of fluctuations of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer critical frequency

The 40-year period of observations of short-term variations (with characteristic times of up to 1–2 days) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) is analyzed. The continuous (with a step of 1 h) series of fluctuations (F) of the foF2 critical frequency (with eliminated daily variations) has been calculated using the hourly variations in foF2 at Moscow stations. The fractal dimension (FRH) of the fluctuations, characterizing short-term variations in foF2, has been determined and analyzed on a 30-day interval, using the Higuchi method. It has been established that FRH estimates substantially change in time. The 11-year cycle, which is in antiphase with the solar cycle, and the total annual and semiannual variations, similar to the variations observed in the normalized critical frequency of the E region and in the electron density of the D region, are clearly defined in these changes. Thus, the parameters of fast variations in the ionospheric F2 layer are affected by the phase of the 11-year solar cycle and by the position of the Earth in the orbit or seasonal variations in the atmosphere.     

Global empirical model of critical frequency of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer for quiet geomagnetic conditions

Using the foF2 database obtained from satellites and ground-based ionospheric stations, we have constructed a global empirical model of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer (SDMF2—Satellite and Digisonde Data Model of the F2 layer) for quiet geomagnetic conditions (Kp < 3). The input parameters of this model are the geographical coordinates, UT, day, month, year, and the integral index F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96) of solar activity for a given day. The SDMF2 model was based on the Legendre method for the spatial expansion of foF2 monthly medians to 12 in latitude and 8 in longitude of spherical harmonics. The resulting spatial coefficients have been expanded by the Fourier method in three spherical harmonics with respect to UT. The effect of the saturation of critical frequency of the ionospheric F2-layer at high solar activity was described in the SDMF2 model by foF2 as a logarithmic function of F10.7 (day, τ = 0.96). The difference between the SDMF2 and IRI models is a maximum at low solar activity as well as in the Southern Hemisphere and in the oceans. The testing on the basis of ground-based and satellite data has indicated that the SDMF2 model is more accurate than the IRI model.     

Comparison of Ionospheric Parameters during Similar Geomagnetic Storms

The degree of closeness of ionospheric parameters during one magnetic storm and of the same parameters during another, similar, storm is estimated. Overall, four storms—two pairs of storms close in structure and appearance according to recording of the magnetic field Х-component—were analyzed. The examination was based on data from Sodankyla observatory (Finland). The f-graphs of the ionospheric vertical sounding, magnetometer data, and riometer data on absorption were used. The main results are as follows. The values of the critical frequencies foF2, foF1, and foE for different but similar magnetic storms differ insignificantly. In the daytime, the difference is on average 6% (from 0 to 11.1%) for all ionospheric layers. In the nighttime conditions, the difference for foF2 is 4%. The nighttime values of foEs differ on average by 20%. These estimates potentially make it possible to forecast ionospheric parameters for a particular storm.     

Features of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pc</Emphasis>5 pulsations in the geomagnetic field,auroral luminosity,and Riometer absorption

Simultaneous morning Pc5 pulsations (f ~ 3–5 mHz) in the geomagnetic field, aurora intensities (in the 557.7 and 630.0 nm oxygen emissions and the 471.0 nm nitrogen emission), and riometer absorption, were studied based on the CARISMA, CANMOS, and NORSTAR network data for the event of January 1, 2000. According to the GOES-8 satellite observations, these Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations are observed as incompressible Alfvén waves with toroidal polarization in the magnetosphere. Although the Pc5 pulsation frequencies in auroras, the geomagnetic field, and riometer absorption are close to one another, stable phase relationships are not observed between them. Far from all trains of geomagnetic Pc5 pulsations are accompanied by corresponding auroral pulsations; consequently, geomagnetic pulsations are primary with respect to auroral pulsations. Both geomagnetic and auroral pulsations propagate poleward, and the frequency decreases with increasing geomagnetic latitude. When auroral Pc5 pulsations appear, the ratio of the 557.7/630.0 nm emission intensity sharply increases, which indicates that auroral pulsations result from not simply modulated particle precipitation but also an additional periodic acceleration of auroral electrons by the wave field. A high correlation is not observed between Pc5 pulsations in auroras and the riometer absorption, which indicates that these pulsations have a common source but different generation mechanisms. Auroral luminosity modulation is supposedly related to the interaction between Alfvén waves and the region with the field-aligned potential drop above the auroral ionosphere, and riometer absorption modulation is caused by the scattering of energetic electrons by VLF noise pulsations.     

Observations of large-scale plasma convection in the magnetosphere with respect to the geomagnetic activity level

The data of the ionospheric observations (the daily f plots) at the Yakutsk meridional chain of ionosondes (Yakutsk–Zhigansk–Batagai–Tixie Bay) with sharp decreases (breaks) in the critical frequency of the regular ionospheric F2 layer (foF2) are considered. The data for 1968–1983 were analyzed, and the statistics of the foF2 break observations, which indicate that these breaks are mainly registered in equinoctial months and in afternoon and evening hours under moderately disturbed geomagnetic conditions, are presented. Calculations performed using the prognostic model of the high-latitude ionosphere indicate that the critical frequency break position coincides with the equatorial boundary of large-scale plasma convection in the dusk MLT sector.     

Quasibiennial variations in fractal dimension of solar total irradiance

Based on the Nimbus-7 (1978–1992) data and the parameters of solar activity (Wolf numbers W, solar radioemission F _10.7) and the ionosphere (f ₂ index of the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer normalized to noon), the fractal dimension (FD) of the variations in the solar total irradiance (L) has been determined on the moving annual interval using the Higuchi technique. It has been established that FD estimates substantially vary in time. Quasibiennial variations (QBVs), which similarly manifest themselves in all considered processes, are detected in these variations. It is interesting that all fractal QBVs are in phase with QBVs of solar irradiance (L) and are almost in antiphase with QBVs of initial (filtered) W, F _10.7, and f ₂ indices. The presence of QBVs in the solar processes and in their FD and noncoincidence of the former with the latter in phase indicate that QBVs have a two-component structure. The obtained results also indicate that an analysis of the annual FD estimates of the solar and ionospheric processes in studying variations in these processes is reliable.     

Increase in the critical frequency of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region prior to the substorm expansion phase

Specific variations in the critical frequency of the ionospheric F ₂ layer during magnetospheric substorms have been found based on the data of vertical sounding stations in Europe and North America. Maximal attention has been paid to the positive peaks of ΔfoF2 with a duration of 6–8 h before the beginning of the substorm expansion phase (T ₀). The possible physical mechanisms by which these peaks are formed (related to the impact of fast particles in the foreshock region of the solar wind on the Earth’s magnetosphere and different for middle and high latitudes) have been considered. The positive peaks of ΔfoF2 can be used in a short-term prediction of the ionospheric disturbance onset and space weather on the whole.     

Anomalous variations in the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript>-layer structure at geomagnetic midlatitudes of the Southern and Northern hemispheres at the transition from summer to winter conditions under low solar activity

The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere and plasmasphere at low solar activity under quiet geomagnetic conditions on January 15–17, 1985, and July 10–13, 1986, over Millstone Hill station and Argentine Islands ionosonde, the locations of which are approximately magnetically conjugate, have been theoretically calculated. The detected correction of the model input parameters makes it possible to coordinate the measured and calculated anomalous variations in the electron density NmF2 at the height hmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer over Argentine Islands ionosonde as well as the calculated and measured values of NmF2 and electron temperature at the hmF2 height over Millstone Hill station. It has been shown that vibrationally excited N₂ and O₂ molecules almost do not influence the formation of the winter anomaly under the conditions of low solar activity. A difference between the influence of electronically excited O⁺ on N _e ions under winter and summer conditions forms not more than 11% of the N _e winter anomaly event in the F ₂ layer and topside ionosphere. The model without electronically excited O⁺ ions reduces the duration of the N _e winter anomaly event. It has been shown that the seasonal variations in the composition of the neutral atmosphere form mainly the NmF2 winter anomaly event over the Millstone Hill radar at low solar activity.     

Statistical study of anomalous nighttime maximums in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">NmF</Emphasis> 2 diurnal variations in the region of appearance of the equatorial anomaly northern crest

The occurrence probabilities of the first and second anomalous nighttime local maximums in the diurnal variations in the electron density at a maximum of the ionospheric F ₂ layer (NmF2) in the region where the crest (hump) of the equatorial anomaly originates in the northern geographic hemisphere have been studied using the data of the stations for vertical sounding of the ionosphere (Paramaribo, Dakar, Quagadougou, Ahmedabad, Delhi, Calcutta, Chongoing, Guangzhou, Taipei, Chung-Li, Okinawa, Yamagawa, Panama, and Bogota) from 1957 to 2004. It has been demonstrated that the anomalous nighttime NmF2 maximums are least frequently formed at ～53° geomagnetic longitude. The calculations have indicated that the studied probabilities are independent of solar activity. Geomagnetic activity weakly affects the rate of occurrence of the first nighttime NmF2 maximum at geomagnetic longitudes of approximately 140° to 358°. At geomagnetic longitudes of approximately 16° to 70° (i.e., in the longitudinal zone of a decreased occurrence frequency of anomalous nighttime maximums), the occurrence probability of the first anomalous nighttime NmF2 maximum under geomagnetically quiet conditions is pronouncedly lower than under geomagnetically disturbed conditions. The dependence of the occurrence probabilities of the first and second anomalous nighttime NmF2 maximums on the month number in a year has been studied.     

Long-Term Trends in the Critical Frequency of the E-layer

A search for trends k(foE) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer at Juliusruh and Slough stations is performed by the method often used by the authors to analyze trends in the F2-layer parameters. It is found that k(foE) could differ in both magnitude and even sign within different time intervals. However, the k(foE) trends have been stably negative over the last two decades for both stations and all months of the year. The k(foE) values averaged over a year are ?0.012 and ?0.005 MHz per year for Juliusruh and Slough stations, respectively. The method used in the recent paper by La?tovi?ka et al. (2016) to determine foE trends is analyzed, and it is shown that the difference in linear approximation of the dependence of the observed foE values on F10.7 within different time intervals could be interpreted not as the presence of a different foE dependence on the F10.7 index within these intervals but as the presence within them of foE trends that change the slope of the linear approximation.     

Ionosphere Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes according to the Data of Ground Based Station of the Vertical Ionospheric Sounding Wakkanai

The paper analyzes the data of manual ionograms processing of hourly measurements of the critical frequency foF2 of the F2 ionospheric layer at the Wakkanai ionospheric vertical sounding station (Japan) in a geomagnetically quiet environment before a series of earthquakes with magnitude M > 6.0, for which the station entered the earthquake preparation zone, in order to detect possible Ionospheric Disturbances Preceding Earthquakes (IDPE), and to determine their quantitative characteristics. Detected IDPE, in the opinion of the authors, can be related to the processes of preparation of the corresponding earthquakes, i.e., to be Ionospheric Precursors of Earthquakes (IPE).     

Vertical structure of the midlatitude winter <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> region of the ionosphere during postmidnight enhancements in <Emphasis Type="Italic">NmF</Emphasis>2

The behavior of the vertical structure of the ionospheric F2 layer, including the variations in the heights of the maximum and bottom of the layer, its half-thickness, and electron content at some fixed heights during postmidnight enhancements in the electron density at the F2 layer maximum (NmF2), has been studied based on the data of the ionospheric vertical sounding, conducted in Alma-Ata (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2005–2006. The analysis of the amplitude and phase relationships between the measured parameters of the layer made it possible to qualitatively complete the existing concepts of the mechanisms by which the discussed effect is maintained. It is shown that the accelerated decrease in the electron density of the layer within a short time interval preceding the beginning of the postmidnight increase in NmF2 is governed not only by recombination processes but also by the plasma redistribution over the increasing thickness of the layer. The regularly observed effect of the delay in the moment of reversal in the motion direction of the layer bottom relative to the corresponding moment for the layer maximum made it possible to conclude that the meridional wind asynchronously reverses its direction from the poleward daytime to the equatorward nighttime in the entire layer: the direction changes later with decreasing height.     

Changes in the ionosphere prior to weak earthquakes in the Irkutsk region

Data from 15-minute measurements at the vertical ionospheric sounding station in Irkutsk during the summer months of 2008–2011 are analyzed in order to detect in the ionosphere effects of preparation of weak earthquakes of the K = 10–12 energy class. The method of revealing disturbances in ionospheric parameters by simultaneous observations of the sporadic E layer and regular F2 layer, which was previously applied by the authors in the case of stronger earthquakes, was used. The efficiency of using this method to detect ionospheric disturbances preceding earthquakes also in the case of weak earthquakes is demonstrated. Possible ionospheric precursors of the selected series of earthquakes are identified. For them, an empirical dependence relating the time of advance of the shock moment by the probable ionospheric precursor on the energy class of the earthquake and the epicenter distance to the observation point is found.     

Ionospheric disturbances during the severe magnetic storm of November 7–10, 2004

Results of the study of the behavior of the F ₂ region and topside ionosphere during the magnetic storm on November 7–10, 2004, which was a superposition of two sequent Severe magnetic disturbances (Kp = 9–) are presented. The observations were conducted by the incoherent scatter radar at Kharkov. Considerable effects of a negative ionospheric disturbance are registered, including a decrease in the electron density in the F ₂-layer maximum by a factor of 6–7 and of the total electron content up to a height of 1000 km by a factor of 2, a lifting up of the ionospheric F ₂ layer by 300 km at night and by 150–180 km in the daytime, unusual nighttime heating of the plasma with an increase of the ion and electron temperatures up to 2000 and 3000 K, respectively, and a decrease in the relative density of hydrogen ions N(H⁺)/N _e by a factor of up to 3.5 because of the emptying of the magnetic flux tube passing over Kharkov. The effects usually observed in the high-latitude ionosphere, including the coherent echoes, are detected during the main phase of the storm. The results obtained manifest a shift of the large-scale structures of the high-latitude ionosphere (the auroral oval, main ionospheric trough, hot zone, etc.) down to latitudes close to the latitude of the Kharkov radar.     

Properties of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer critical frequency median in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere during low and moderate solar activity

Based on an analysis of data from the European ionospheric stations at subauroral latitudes, it has been found that the main ionospheric trough (MIT) is not characteristic for the monthly median of the F2-layer critical frequency (foF2), at least for low and moderate solar activity. In order to explain this effect, the properties of foF2 in the nocturnal subauroral ionosphere have been additionally studied for low geomagnetic activity, when the MIT localization is known quite reliably. It has been found that at low and moderate solar activity during night hours in winter, the foF2 data from ionospheric stations are often absent in the MIT area. For this reason, a model of the foF2 monthly median, which was constructed from the remaining data of these stations, contains no MIT or a very weakly pronounced MIT.