冬季北太平洋SST与西太平洋副高的相关性

采用英国Hadley中心1974-2006年逐月的北太平洋海表温度资料和NCEP/NCAR的北半球500hPa和1000hPa高度场资料,利用一元回归和相关分析等统计方法,研究各月北太平洋海温的变化特征、探讨冬季西北太平洋海温关键区,然后分析关键区海温与气象场的联系.结果表明,北太平洋海温变率较大的地方出现在我国东部的西北太平洋地区,年代际变化为上升趋势;海温与前一年12月和同期1月500hPa位势高度场的相关最好.表现为冬季东亚大槽对关键区海温的显著影响.1月关键区海温与后期5-6月西太平洋副高存在较显著的正相关,即1月关键区海温升高,同年5-6月副高亦加强,即反映冬季北太平洋SST对西太平洋副高的影响.     

甘肃河东春季第一场区域性透雨日期的气候特征

分析了甘肃省河东地区春季(3～5月)第一场区域性透雨日期的年际和年代际变化，指出河东第一场透雨日期与春季降水的关系，给出第一场透雨日期典型年份500hPa的当时场，详细分析了河东第一场透雨日期出现迟早的年代际变化与北半球500hPa环流年代际变化之间的影响和联系。     

大尺度环流系统对西北太平洋变性TC频数影响的气候诊断分析

基于中国热带气旋年鉴资料,从气候学角度出发,对西北太平洋TC(热带气旋)发生温带变性的频数与大尺度环流系统间的关系进行了诊断和分析.研究发现变性TC多发生于夏、秋两季,通过对NCEP月平均再分析资料的500hPa高度场进行EOF分解,发现西北太平洋TC变性的频数与65°N附近强冷高压系统在夏、秋两季都存在着正相关关系,且相关性在秋季高于夏季;与30°N附近强副热带高压系统存在负相关关系,夏季副热带高压系统的作用更大;与30°N以南西北太平洋多台风活动区域的弱低压存在显著的负相关,低压越弱,对流越弱,则TC的生成数越少,其中发生变性的TC数也会减少.500hPa高度场EOF分解的第一特征向量所对应的时间函数分布在20世纪70年代中期前后出现了反号,较好地对应了变性TC年频数的年际变化趋势,70年代中期之前变性TC呈总体偏多,之后变性TC的频数总体偏少,呈明显下降趋势.     

南半球大气环流活动对云南汛期降水的影响

采用1948-2006年6-8月云南124个测站的月平均降水资料以及NCEP/NCAR 1948-2006年1-5月100hPa及500hPa位势高度月平均再分析资料,对云南省月平均降水做EOF分解,以第一主分量与南半球100hPa和500hPa高度场进行相关分析,希望找出南半球与云南汛期降水相关密切的因子.结果表明:南半球大气环流与云南汛期降水联系密切,影响因子从一月的南极逐月向中纬的南半球西风带和低纬移动;四月和五月南极区域与中纬度呈明显的"跷跷板式"的反位相变化特征.     

一次持续大暴雨过程新一代天气雷达回波特征分析

为探讨西北地区东部的持续大暴雨过程成因及预警指标,利用2010年7月22~23日500~700hPa大气环流背景及天气影响系统和西峰新一代多普勒天气雷达回波资料分析,结果得到:500hPa西太平洋副热带高压外围河套地区环境场的演变高压外围低涡发展及维持,是这次持续性大暴雨过程的大气环流背景和影响天气系统,700hPa强盛的水汽场输送场与汇聚作用为这次持续性大暴雨过程提供了充沛的水汽条件,随着500hPa河套地区低涡-切变辐合系统的准静止维持造成这次持续性大暴雨过程;大暴雨前1.5~9.7km垂直方向上,存在明显的东南风场与西南风场的切变,风向随高度顺转,对应持续的暖平流;天气雷达强度回波反射率因子≥40dBz,暴雨期间维持少变;径向速度回波的水平辐合和气旋性涡旋运动与河套低涡切变天气系统对应一致;垂直液态水含量≥35kg.m2的雨团范围大、持续时间长;云顶回波高度维持在8km以上,对监测预警持续大暴雨天气具有一定指示意义。     

青藏高原夏季200hPa西风变化特征及其与降水的关系

为了加强高原高空西风变化及其与降水关系的研究,利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料及中国160个测站月降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、小波分析、相关分析等方法,对青藏高原夏季200hPa西风近几十年的变化特征及其与中国降水的关系进行分析。结果表明:自1948年青藏高原夏季200hPa西风整体呈现显著增强趋势;且高原西风在20世纪50年代前期偏弱,在50年代中后期开始增强,并在80年代出现近62年的最大值,90年代末高原高空西风略有减弱,但不明显;小波分析表明高原200hPa西风具有2~4a的周期,且这一周期成分在50年代及70年代末至80年代前期这两个时段比较显著;高原西风的突变分析表明在1954年发生了一次较明显的增强突变。高原夏季200hPa西风与中国降水关系的分析表明:高原西风增强时在长江流域以北的中国大部分地区降水偏多,以江淮流域、川渝地区西部和东部省界以及中国西北、东北的部分地区表现显著,长江流域以南的大部分地区降水偏少,其中华南沿海及中国西南地区西南部降水偏少更加明显,降水场与大气环流有较好的配置关系。     

西北太平洋柔鱼资源与海洋环境的GIS空间分析

本文根据1995～2001年的西北太平洋地区(35°N～45°N,140°E～170°W)巴特柔鱼资源调查与生产的实际情况对柔鱼渔获量进行了研究,并利用同期遥感反演的海洋表层温度数据(SST)和近表层叶绿素a数据(Chlorophylla),拓展了GIS的空间分析功能,定量地研究了我国远洋柔鱼产量与水温、叶绿素等海洋要素场之间的关系,揭示西北太平洋柔鱼中心渔场的环境特征,以期为我国西北太平洋海区的鱿鱼生产服务。     

西北太平洋柔鱼渔场分布与海面高度关系的初步研究

根据2012年7—11月(1—19周)我国鱿钓船在西北太平洋鱿钓作业数据,结合遥感获得的海面高度数据,分析了以周为时间单位的柔鱼产量重心空间分布及其规律,结果表明:第1—7周柔鱼产量重心主要集中在海面高度距平值SSHA0的海域,第8—11周柔鱼产量重心的优势范围同时包含SSHA0及SSHA0的海域,第12—14周主要集中在SSHA0的海域,第15—19周集中SSHA0的海域;7—11月西北太平洋柔鱼洄游过程分布在不同海面高度的海域中,且海面高度特征值差异明显,这可能与黑潮延伸区海洋锋面、上升流等活动剧烈有关。     

2011年春夏长江中下游旱涝急转的低频环流系统变化

为研究2011年春夏长江中下游地区旱涝急转现象与低频环流的关系,利用国家气象信息中心的753站逐日降水、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和带通滤波的方法,得到如下结果：（1）2011年5-6月,长江中下游地区存在明显旱涝急转现象,5月的降水较同期偏少40％以上,6月的降水较同期偏多60％。（2）5-6月的旱涝急转前后,长江中下游地区的500hPa的垂直速度变化不仅与降水有很好的关系,而且其低频振荡的强度也显著加强,垂直速度由正（下沉运动）转负（上升运动）的转换时间几乎对应由旱转涝的时间。（3）对旱涝急转过程的500hPa低频变化垂直速度下沉运动最强、下沉运动向上升运动转换、上升运动最强3个位相的低频散度场分析发现,在5月干旱期间,长江中下游地区维持对流层低层（850hPa）辐散、高层（200hPa）辐合的低频环流系统,不利于降水。到6月强降水期,长江中下游地区则迅速转为对流层低层辐合、高层辐散的低频环流系统,有利于降水的发生。这种对流层低层-高层低频环流系统的变化是导致旱涝急转的重要原因之一。     

前期印度洋海温异常对中国春季降水的影响

为了进一步认识印度洋海温的异常变化与中国降水的关系,采用SVD分析、相关分析及合成差值分析讨论了前期冬季关键区海温的异常变化对中国春季降水影响的差异,探讨了产生这种影响的原因。结果表明:前期冬季关键区海温的异常增高(降低),会造成后期春季中国华北往南到华中、华东、华南东部及西北的新疆地区的降水明显增多(减少),西南的四川、贵州及华南的广西等地降水会有所减少(增多)。与关键区冷年相比,在关键区的暖年,环流形势反映出东欧槽显著减弱,北方气压显著降低,蒙古高压明显减弱,冷空气南下更为明显,而华南东部、华中、华东及华北一直被较为显著的南风气流控制,海洋的暖湿气流向中国内陆输送更为显著,使得东部及中部大部分地区水汽较为充沛,形成大面积的降水。     

An analysis of the causes of decadal variations of rainfall in Shandong in summer

The precipitation in Shandong in July, August as well as the whole summer (JJA) and the corresponding 500hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed by means of the SVD (singular value decomposition) methodology. It is found that the general circulations in East Asia and the Western Pacific underwent decadal changes around 1979. The geopotential height, in particular over key areas like the South China Sea and the Philippines, increased after 1979. Corresponding to the changes in the geopotential height, the rainfall in Shandong started to decrease around 1979. The synthesized analysis shows that when the geopotential height at 500hPa level decreases in the key areas, the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northward and an anticyclonic anomalous cell enforces the southerly flow over Shandong-Korea-Japan, Shandong could experience a wet period. A dry period is likely to occur when the geopotential height increases in these key areas, the subtropical high moves southward or expands westward to a great distance, and a cyclonic anomalous cell controls Shandong. Respective conceptual models for the causative mechanism are obtained for the cases of July, August and the whole summer (JJA).     

100hPa环流变化与川渝地区旱涝异常分析

应用ＳＶＤ技术，诊断分析了北半球１００ｈＰａ高度场与川渝地区夏季降水的关系。结果表明：高度场与降水场具有密切的时空相关性，第一模态反映了两场间的主要耦合特征；南亚高压活动地区前期１０～１２月、１～４月高度场变化，通过影响未来夏季南亚高压强度、位置，导致川渝地区夏季旱涝异常。高度场与降水场的这种非同步联系，物理意义明确，时空相关显著，是一种有价值的预测川渝地区夏季旱涝异常的强信号。     

Influence of the Eastern Indian Ocean Warm Pool Variability on the Spring Precipitation in China

The relationship between the variability of the Eastern India Ocean Warm Pool （EIWP） and the spring precipitation in China is studied in the paper based on an analysis of the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation （SODA） Sea Surface Temperature （SST） data, the reanalysis data of monthly grid wind field at 925 hPa with a resolution of 2.5^＊ latitude and longitude from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR）, and the monthly mean rainfall data from 160 observational stations in China. The results show that there is a strong correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China. The area, volume and intensity indices of the EIWP are negatively correlated with the spring precipitation in southwestern China, while they are positively correlated with the spring precipitation in the rest of China, especially in the northeast. For this correlation between the EIWP variability and the spring precipitation in China, it is found that the correlative relationship is mainly connected with the variations of the moisture transport by the warm air flow, which is under the influence of the EIWP variability, into the inland of China in spring. Two causative factors may influence this transport. One is the variation of the moisture transport carried by the warm air flow from the Arabian Sea influenced by the EIWP variability. The other is the variation of the equator-crossing flow （70^＊-90^＊E） influenced by the EIWP anomaly in the previous winter which exerts its effect on the moist warm air transported from the Southern Hemisphere. The position and intensity of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High （WNPSH） variability caused by EIWP variation also influence the spring precipitation in China.     

ANALYSIS OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER TIBETAN PLATEAU IN SUMMER

1INTRODUCTION In meteorological satellite cloud images, the features of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) are shown in white bright cloud cluster, cloud band, cloud line, vorti- calcloudsystem,etc. The MCSlife cycle and spatial size usuallyvaryfrom several hours to one day and 100km to approximately 1000km, respectively. In the last two decades, it has been proven that storm and intensive con- vective weather, such as spasmodic thunderstorm and gale, tornado and short macro-precipitati…     

Influence of the Convection over the South China Sea on the Summer Precipitation of Shandong Province

1　Introduction　ShandongProvince ,whichislocatedintheeastofChina ,consistspartlyofpeninsulaandpartlyofinlandwithatotalareaofabout 1 5 0 0 0 0km2 .Lyingfrom34°2 0′Nto 38°2 0′Nandfrom 1 1 4°4 0′Eto 1 2 2°4 0′E ,alltheareabelongstothemoderateregionandtothetypicalAsianmonsoonclimate .SoShandong’ssum merprecipitationaccountsforover 6 0 %oftheannualrainfall,andaccordinglyflood droughtdisastersmain lyoccurinsummer.Moreover,becauseitisgeographi callylocatedinthetransitionalareabetweenthe…     

Imprint of the ENSO on rainfall and latent heating variability over the Southern South China Sea from TRMM observations

Analyses of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) datasets revealed a prominent interannual variation in the convective-stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern South China Sea (SCS) during the winter monsoon between 1998 and 2010. Although the height of maximum latent heating remained nearly constant at around 7 km in all of the years, the year-to-year changes in the magnitudes of maximum latent heating over the region were noticeable. The interannual variations of the convective- stratiform rainfall and latent heating over the southern SCS were highly anti-correlated with the Niño-3 index, with more (less) rainfall and latent heating during La Niña (El Niño) years. Analysis of the large-scale environment revealed that years of active rainfall and latent heating corresponded to years of large deep convergence and relative humidity at 600 hPa. The moisture budget diagnosis indicated that the interannual variation of humidity at 600 hPa was largely modulated by the vertical moisture advection. The year-to-year changes in rainfall over the southern SCS were mainly caused by the interannual variations of the dynamic component associated with anomalous upward motions in the middle troposphere, while the interannual variations of the thermodynamic component associated with changes in surface specific humidity played a minor role. Larger latent heating over the southern SCS during La Niña years may possibly further enhance the local Hadley circulation over the SCS in the wintertime.     

一个可投入业务使用的正压原始方程模式

本模式是为“重庆雾客”课题而设计的,能够通报“雾害”形成的500hPa背景形势场的正压原始方程模式。它从转报、客观分析到数值预报完全自动化。可以投入业务使用。模式提供500hPa环流形势的24小时预报。预报域覆盖整个东亚地区。模式的差分方案采用准拉格朗日平流格式。时间步长取为半小时。通过1990年11月～12月60天的预报试验表明:该模式能够较准确地预报500hPa环流形势。     

Relationship between Antarctic sea ice and the climate in summer of China

The variations of sea ice are different in different regions in Antarctica, thus have different impacts on local atmospheric circulation and global climatic system. The relationships between the sea ice in Ross Sea and Weddell Sea regions and the synoptic climate in summer of China are investigated in this paper via diagnostic analysis methods by using global sea ice concentration gridded data covering Jan. 1968 through Dec. 2002 obtained from Hadley Center, combined with Geopotential Height on 500hPa and 100hPa over North Hemisphere and monthly precipitation and air temperatures data covering the corresponding period over 160 meteorological stations in China obtained from CMA （ China Meteorological Administration）. Results disclose that both these two regions are of indicative meanings to the climate in summer of China. The Ross Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the precipitation in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will result in less precipitation in Northeast China in the following June. Weddell Sea Region is the key sea ice region to the air temperature in Northeast China in summer. More sea ice in this region in September will contribute to lower air temperature in Northeast China in the following June.