欧亚大陆雪盖与四川盆地夏季气温的关系

应用统计学方法,分析了欧亚大陆雪盖与四川盆地夏季气温的关系。结果表明:前期雪盖面积异常对四川盆地夏季冷暖有长期稳定的影响,而冬春季最为显著;欧亚大陆雪盖是四川夏季长期天气过程的主要影响因子,在四川长期天气业务预报中具有明确的应用价值。     

东亚冬季风异常与ENSO事件及其预测意义

通过东亚冬季风强度指数资料，进一步分析了东亚冬季风变化与ＥｌＮｉｎｏ（ＬａＮｉｎａ）之间的密切关系，１９１０～１９９０年２０次ＥｌＮｉｎｏ事件，有１４次对应前期强的东亚冬季风，１５次ＬａＮｉｎａ事件，有９次对应前期弱的东亚冬季风。应用奇异值分解（ＳＶＤ）技术，得到了前期东亚冬季风与后期ＥｌＮｉｎｏ海区海温的时间和空间结构及其相关关系，其第一模态之间具有明显相关，反映了前期东亚冬季风与后期ＥｌＮｉｎｏ海区海温的非同步关系。指出：前期东亚冬季风异常，通过对海温的影响，对ＥｌＮｉｎｉｏ（ＬａＮｉｎａ）产生作用，强（弱）东亚冬季风有利于ＥｌＮｉｎｏ（ＬａＮｉｎａ）的发生发展。因此，东亚冬季风是一种预测短期灾害性气候异常的前兆信号。     

太平洋海温异常与西南区夏季降水

本文考察了西南区夏季(5～8月)降水距平分布与太平洋海温场的统计相关,认为与冬季太平洋海温场存在三个显著相关区;在此基础上,分析了其相关的物理机制,得到了基本的物理规律,为西南区夏季降水长期预报提供了有意义的参考经验。     

THE 2 ND EDITORIAL COMMITTEE FOR GEOLOGY OF ZHEJIANG

ＤＩＲＥＣＴＯＲＯＦＥＤＩＴＯＲＩＡＬＣＯＭＭＩＴＴＥＥ：Ｔａｎｇ ＷｅｎｑｕａｎＤＥＰＲＴＹＤＩＲＥＣＴＯＲＳＯＦＥＤＩＴＯＲＩＡＬＣＯＭＩＴＴＥＥ：ＺｈｕＡｕｑｉｎｇ，ＱｉａｎＺｈｕ，ＺｈａｎｇＹｏｎｇｓｈａｎ，ＹａｎｇＳｈｕｆｅｎｇＭＥＭＢＥＲＳＯＦＥＤＩＴＯＮＲＡＬＣＯＭＭＩＴＴＥＥ：ＤｅｎｇＹｕｅｚｈｅｎｇ，ＬａｎＹｕｑｉ，ＺｈｕＣｈｕａｎ，ＺｈｕＡｎｑｉｎｇ，ＪｉａｎｇＳｈａｎｇｑｉｎｇ，Ｗａｎｇｊｉｚａｏ，ＴａｎｇＷｎｑｕａｎ，ＬｉＧｕａｎｇｙｏｕ，ＷｕＭｉｎｇｙａｏ，ＺｈａｎｇＣ…     

PALEOSOLS AND THEIR REFLECTION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF THE QINGHAI－XIZANG PLATEAU

ＰＡＬＥＯＳＯＬＳＡＮＤＴＨＥＩＲＲＥＦＬＥＣＴＩＯＮＯＦＴＨＥＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＡＬＣＨＡＮＧＥＳＩＮＴＨＥＮＯＲＴＨＥＡＳＴＲＥＧＩＯＮＯＦＴＨＥＱＩＮＧＨＡＩ－ＸＩＺＡＮＧＰＬＡＴＥＡＵ徐叔鹰，潘保田ＰＡＬＥＯＳＯＬＳＡＮＤＴＨＥＩＲＲＥＦ...     

THE EFFECTS OF THE THREE GORGES PROJECT ON ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT

ＴＨＥＥＦＦＥＣＴＳＯＦＴＨＥＴＨＲＥＥＧＯＲＧＥＳＰＲＯＪＥＣＴＯＮＥＣＯＬＯＧＹＡＮＤＥＮＶＩＲＯＮＭＥＮＴＸｉａＹｉｃｈｅｎｇ（夏宜铮）（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＨｙｄｒｏｂｉｏｌｏｇｙ，ｔｈｅＣｈｉｎｅｓｅＡｃａｄｅｍｙｏｆＳｃｉｅｎｃｅｓ，Ｗ...     

ANNUAL LAMINATIONS IN THE SEDIMENTS OF HONGFENG LAKE, CHINA

ＡＮＮＵＡＬ　ＬＡＭＩＮＡＴＩＯＮＳ　ＩＮ　ＴＨＥ　ＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴＳ　ＯＦ　ＨＯＮＧＦＥＮＧ　ＬＡＫＥ，　ＣＨＩＮＡＡＮＮＵＡＬＬＡＭＩＮＡＴＩＯＮＳＩＮＴＨＥＳＥＤＩＭＥＮＴＳＯＦＨＯＮＧＦＥＮＧＬＡＫＥ，ＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＷｕＦｅｎｇｃｈａｎｇ；Ｗａ...     

DIFASTERS AND REGIONAL RISKS OF DEBRIS FLOW IN ZHAOTONG PREFECTURE，YUNNAN PROVINCE，CHINA

（刘希林）ＤＩＦＡＳＴＥＲＳＡＮＤＲＥＧＩＯＮＡＬＲＩＳＫＳＯＦＤＥＢＲＩＳＦＬＯＷＩＮＺＨＡＯＴＯＮＧＰＲＥＦＥＣＴＵＲＥ，ＹＵＮＮＡＮＰＲＯＶＩＮＣＥ，ＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＬｉｕＸｉｌｉｎ（ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＭｏｕｎｔａｉｎＤｉｓａｓｔｅｒａｎｄＥｎ...     

THE APPLICABILITY OF RESEARCH ON FLOOD－DROUGHT TENDENCY－AN ANALYSIS ON DISASTROUS FLOOD OF TAIHU LAKE BASININ JUNE－JULY，1991

ＴＨＥ ＡＰＰＬＩＣＡＢＩＬＩＴＹ ＯＦ ＲＥＳＥＡＲＣＨ ＯＮ ＦＬＯＯＤ－ＤＲＯＵＧＨＴ ＴＥＮＤＥＮＣＹ－ＡＮ ＡＮＡＬＹＳＩＳ ＯＮ ＤＩＳＡＳＴＲＯＵＳ ＦＬＯＯＤ ＯＦ ＴＡＩＨＵ ＬＡＫＥ ＢＡＳＩＮＩＮ ＪＵＮＥ－ＪＵＬＹ，１９９１ ...     

DEVELOPMENT, TERRITORIAL DIFFERENCE AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION OF TOWNS IN CHINA

ＤＥＶＥＬＯＰＭＥＮＴ，ＴＥＲＲＩＴＯＲＩＡＬＤＩＦＦＥＲＥＮＣＥＡＮＤＳＰＡＴＩＡＬＥＶＯＬＵＴＩＯＮＯＦＴＯＷＮＳＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ──ＡＤＩＳＣＵＳＳＩＯＮＯＮＴＨＥＶＩＥＷＳＯＦＡＮＴＩ－ＵＲＢＡＮＩＳＭＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＧｕＣｈａｏｌｉｎＩｎｓｔ...     

Predictability of Chinese Summer Extreme Rainfall Based on Arctic Sea Ice and Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

Chinese summer extreme rainfall often brings huge economic losses, so the prediction of summer extreme rainfall is necessary. This study focuses on the predictability of the leading mode of Chinese summer extreme rainfall from empirical orthogonal function(EOF) analysis. The predictors used in this study are Arctic sea ice concentration(ASIC) and regional sea surface temperature(SST) in selected optimal time periods. The most important role that Arctic sea ice(ASI) plays in the appearance of EOF1 may be strengthening the high pressure over North China, thereby preventing water vapor from going north. The contribution of SST is mainly at low latitudes and characterized by a significant cyclone anomaly over South China. The forecast models using predictor ASIC(PA), SST(PS), and the two together(PAS) are established by using data from 1980 to 2004. An independent forecast is made for the last 11 years(2005-2015). The correlation coefficient(COR) skills between the observed and cross-validation reforecast principal components(PC) of the PA, PS, and PAS models are 0.47, 0.66, and 0.76, respectively. These values indicate that SST is a major cause of Chinese summer extreme rainfall during 1980-2004. The COR skill of the PA model during the independent forecast period of 2004-2015 is 0.7, which is significantly higher than those of the PS and PAS models. Thus, the main factor influencing Chinese summer extreme rainfall in recent years has changed from low latitudes to high latitudes. The impact of ASI on Chinese summer extreme rainfall is becoming increasingly significant.     

主汛期降水量预测信号及方差权重方法的应用

为了制作四川盆地主汛期降水预报对相似方法作了改进，首先是根据四川盆地主汛期降水的前３个特征向量分别寻找有物理基础的前期信号作为预报因子，然后充分考虑各因子对总降水量贡献大小定义因子场的相似，确定相似年，最后引入“集成”的思想，由５个相似年的降水场得到预测年降水的定量客观预报。１９８１～１９９４共１４年的预报结果准确率高于当前业务预报水平。     

太平洋海温与我国气温的关联

本文首先利用交叉相关系数经验自然正交展开,分析了太平洋海温场与我国气温场的遥相关,得出了相关关联区;在此基础上,通过复经验自然正交展开(CEOF),对关联区的海温和气温时空变化及相互联系作了讨论。     

川渝冬季降水的年际变化及其与海温异常的关系

为了认识川渝冬季降水与海温之间的关系,利用川渝地区44个站点降水资料和海表温度资料并借助EOF分解、小波分析和相关分析等方法,讨论了川渝冬季年际降水变化特征及其与前期海温异常之间的关系。结果表明：川渝冬季年际降水空间分布主要有3个类型,EOFl型为川渝冬季降水的一致偏多（偏少）,EOF2型为川渝西南部、东部降水偏少（偏多）,而川渝地区西北部、中部降水偏多（偏少）;EOF3型为川渝西南部降水偏多（偏少）,而东北部降水偏少（偏多）;EOF1型和EOF2型降水与前期海温的相关明显小于EOF3型并较为分散,EOF3型降水与前期夏季、秋季海温在热带中、东太平洋和印度洋中、北部呈现非常显著的正相关,对应ENSO特征非常明显。     

川渝地区夏季降水变化气候特征分析

利用川渝地区34站1960—2006年共计47年的逐月降水量资料,采用经验正交函数（BOF）分解、旋转经验正交函数（REOF）分解、小波分析等方法详细讨论了川渝地区夏季降水量的时空变化特征。结果表明：川渝地区夏季降水量时空分布不均,川渝地区夏季降水量可以分为3个区,分别是川西高原区、盆地中部区和盆地东部区。近50年来,川渝地区夏季降水量具有显著不同的年代际变化特征,川西高原和盆地东部夏季降水量长期变化呈增加的趋势,而盆地中部呈减少的趋势。川渝各区夏季降水量具有显著不同的多时间尺度的周期变化特征,其中川西高原具有准15年和准5年的周期变化特征,盆地中部具有准14年、准6年和准3年的周期变化,盆地东部具有准16年、准8年和准3年的周期变化特征。     

Forecasts of South China Sea surface temperature anomalies using the Niño indices and dipole mode index as predictors

Based on an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly NCEP Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) data in the South China Sea (SCS) after removing the climatological mean and trends of SST, over the period of January 1982 to October 2003, the corresponding TCF correlates best with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI), Niño1+2, Niño3.4, Niño3, and Niño4 indices with time lags of 10, 3, 6, 5, and 6 months, respectively. Thus, a statistical hindcasts in the prediction model are based on a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) model using the above indices as predictors spanning from 1993/1994 to 2003/2004 with a 1–12 month lead time after the canonical variants are calculated, using data from the training periods from January 1982 to December1992. The forecast model is successful and steady when the lead times are 1–12 months. The SCS warm event in 1998 was successfully predicted with lead times from 1–12 months irrespective of the strength or time extent. The prediction ability for SSTA is lower during weak ENSO years, in which other local factors should be also considered as local effects play a relatively important role in these years. We designed the two forecast models: one using both DMI and Niño indices and the other using only Niño indices without DMI, and compared the forecast accuracies of the two cases. The spatial distributions of forecast accuracies show different confidence areas. By turning off the DMI, the forecast accuracy is lower in the coastal areas off the Philippines in the SCS, suggesting some teleconnection may occur with the Indian Ocean in this area. The highest forecast accuracies occur when the forecast interval is five months long without using the DMI, while using both of Niño indices and DMI, the highest accuracies occur when the forecast interval time is eight months, suggesting that the Niño indices dominate the interannual variability of SST anomalies in the SCS. Meanwhile the forecast accuracy is evaluated over an independent test period of more than 11 years (1993/94 to October 2004) by comparing the model performance with a simple prediction strategy involving the persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies over a 1–12 month lead time (the persisted prediction). Predictions based on the CCA model show a significant improvement over the persisted prediction, especially with an increased lead time (longer than 3 months). The forecast model performs steadily and the forecast accuracy, i.e., the correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted SSTA in the SCS are about 0.5 in most middle and southern SCS areas, when the thresholds are greater than the 95% confidence level. For all 1 to 12 month lead time forecasts, the root mean square errors have a standard deviation of about 0.2. The seasonal differences in the prediction performance for the 1–12 month lead time are also examined.     

1997年四川汛期旱涝趋势预测评述

简要回顾了１９９７年汛期预报情况，检验了汛期降水预报效果，分析了大气、海洋、高原热状况等主要物理因素对四川汛期旱涝的作用。     

甘肃庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的气候特征及预测模型

应用自然正交函数分解(EOF)方法,分析了甘肃省庆阳地区春末夏初干旱的综合评价指数DH的空间分布特征及随时间演变规律,并提出了抗旱生产建议;分析了春末夏初干旱对冬小麦和玉米产量的影响;应用逐步回归方法建立了春末夏初干旱的预测模型,业务使用效果良好.     

INTERANNUAL OSCILLATION OF MERIDIONAL SEA LEVEL WID AND ITS IMPACT ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

INTRODUCTIONTheSouthChinaSea(Srs),nearthewestedgeofthetropicalwestPade,istheoTilyquasi-endotaldeepbasinintheworid,hasa相似文献