基于DEA模型的我国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价

应用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)模型对我国自然灾害的区域脆弱性水平进行研究,在区域灾害系统理论的组织框架下,从区域自然灾害危险性、区域承灾体暴露性和区域自然灾害损失度三个方面构建了区域自然灾害系统的DEA投入产出模型,并利用模型得出的区域自然灾害成灾效率对区域自然灾害的脆弱性进行模拟反映,对我国自然灾害脆弱性的区域分异特征进行分析。研究发现:我国自然灾害脆弱性的整体水平较高,地域格局为西部中部东部,且脆弱性水平与地区经济水平具有明显的负相关关系,经济发达地区的脆弱性相对较低。     

灾害范式及其历史演进

随着人类社会的发展,人类对灾害的理解发生了很大的变化,灾害范式也在不断的演进,可以归纳为：荒政范式、工程范式、行为范式、社会范式和可持续范式5种灾害范式。通过分析这些灾害范式形成的社会历史背景、灾害的基本观点、关注的主要问题以及减灾防灾的主要对策和措施,得出以下结论：① 在人类社会历史进程中,人们对灾害的认识和理解是逐步深化和发展的;② 灾害范式与减灾实践的发展是互动生成的;③ 范式的产生与转变都有深刻的社会动因;④ 一定时期,存在一定的主流灾害范式,但其他灾害范式的影响依然存在。     

县域尺度下的宝鸡市农业洪水灾害脆弱性评价及区划

为探究农业洪水灾害发生机理和降低洪水灾害对农业生产的不利影响，以宝鸡市为例，利用辖区内2014年降水数据与2015年社会经济统计资料，依据自然灾害脆弱性理论，从易损性和适应性2个因子着手，选取了年降水量等12个分指标，构建了宝鸡市农业洪水灾害脆弱性评价指标体系，运用均方差赋权法确定权重，利用ArcGIS 10.2技术以县域尺度视角对研究区农业洪水灾害脆弱性进行了综合评价与区划。结果表明：（1） 高易损性区主要集中在岐山县、金台区等年降水量较高且耕地比重较大的区县。（2） 高适应性区主要包括渭滨区、金台区等经济发达地区。（3） 高脆弱性区为太白县、千阳县；较高脆弱性区为陇县、麟游县、岐山县、扶风县；中等脆弱性区为陈仓区、凤翔县；低脆弱性区为金台区、渭滨区、眉县、凤县。整体来看，宝鸡市农业水灾高脆弱区集中分布在辖区东北部，宝鸡市政府及有关部门应加强水灾风险研究，根据各区县的地理环境特征和经济发展水平来因地制宜调整土地利用结构和农业种植结构，重视防洪工程建设，降低农业水灾脆弱性以减轻农业洪水灾损。     

新疆天山山地自然灾害垂直带谱及其特征

分析天山山地由气候原因引起的自然灾害分布的垂直带谱,主要灾害类型有１２种,可分为３个带：（１）基带（暴雨－塌方带）：主要是由中、低山突发性的降雨引起的各种灾害。此带灾害频发时期与最大降水期是同步的。（２）中带（融水－冰冻带）：其灾害大多同温度的变化有密切的关系。（３）上带（风吹雪－雪崩带）：由积雪运动造成的灾害多集中在这里。山地坡向和高度对自然灾害垂直带谱的组成和灾害出现的频率影响很大。由于温度和     

洪水灾害脆弱性研究进展

洪水灾害是当今世界最严重的自然灾害之一,洪灾经济损失及风险评估是防洪减灾领域的一项基础性工作,而脆弱性的确定是评估模型的关键.文章在对自然灾害脆弱性评估方法总结的基础上,着重对洪水情景模拟中代表脆弱性的灾损率曲线开展探讨.对灾损曲线的起源、建立方法和综合运用的趋势进行研究.国外保险业与政府开展此类工作较早,相比于国外已经取得的丰硕研究成果而言,国内灾损率研究远远不能为决策提供有效的指导,这与我国面临的巨大洪灾风险不相称.政府、保险等部门与科研工作急需结合起来,填补城市洪灾脆弱性研究空白,多参数综合调研、深入各种承灾体内部系统而细致地开展灾损率调查,对于减少未来洪灾影响,具有非常重要的实际意义.     

Vulnerability of families and households to natural hazards: A case study of storm surge flooding in Sarasota County,Florida

The role that family and household structure, size, and ethnic/racial composition play in increasing or decreasing vulnerability to natural hazards, which has been missing from the literature, is investigated. The study first reviews the conceptual foundations of the relationships between families/households and natural hazards vulnerability and then employs a principal components analysis to uncover spatial variations in the vulnerability of families and households to hurricane storm surge hazards in Sarasota County, Florida. The analysis identifies and maps five principal components that explain approximately 83% of the variance in family/household population: nuclear families/households; Black families/households; nonfamily, young adult group households; Hispanic families/households; and Asian families/households. Comparison of storm surge risk maps with the locations of these families/households shows the relative vulnerability of each of these family/household categories, with elderly householders living alone on exposed barrier islands being the most vulnerable. The research suggests that family and household structures integrate several socio-demographic vulnerability indicators central to most social vulnerability assessments. Results indicate that future research and hazard mitigation policies should focus on families and households as core analytical units. Findings also suggest that recognizing the diversity of families and households is important to reducing vulnerability to natural hazards.     

Local- and watershed-scale controls on the spatial variability of natural levee deposits in a large fine-grained floodplain: Lower Pánuco Basin, Mexico

This study examines spatial variations in natural levee deposits within the lower reaches of a large coastal plain drainage system. The Pánuco basin (98,227 km²) drains east-central Mexico, and is an excellent setting to examine the influence of watershed and local controls on the morphology and sedimentology of natural levees. Although many fluvial systems in the U.S. Gulf Coastal Plain have been investigated, the rivers in the Mexican Gulf Coastal Plain have received comparatively little attention. Lateral and downstream characteristics of natural levee morphology and sediment texture are considered within the context of meandering river floodplain deposits. Data sources include total-stations surveying, sediment samples of surficial levee deposits, topographic maps (1:50,000), and aerial photographs (1:40,000). The slope of natural levees average 0.0049 m/m, whereas the texture (D₈₄) of levee deposits averages 0.12 mm. Natural levee characteristics vary due to local- and watershed-scale controls. The lateral reduction in levee height displays a curvilinear pattern that coincides with an abrupt change in sediment texture. The downstream pattern of natural levee texture exhibits the influence of local-scale perturbations superimposed upon a larger watershed-scale trend. Disruption to the fining trend, either by tributary inputs of sediment or reworking of Tertiary valley deposits, is retained for a limited distance. The influence of the channel planform geometry on levee morphology is examined by consideration of the radius of curvature (R_c) of meander bends, and is inversely related to natural levee width. This suggests that the planform geometry of river channels exerts a control on the dispersal of flood sediments, and is responsible for considerable local variability in the floodplain topography. The average width of natural levees increases with drainage area, from an average of 747 m in the Moctezuma to an average of 894 m in the Pánuco. However, in the lower reaches of the Pánuco valley the width of natural levees rapidly decreases, which is associated with fining of the suspended sediment load. Thus, the reduction in natural levee width signifies an abrupt change in the directionality of cause–effect relationships at the watershed-scale. Findings from this study elucidate linkages between meandering river channels and floodplains for a large lowland alluvial valley.     

中国海岸带自然灾害与环境评估

本文论述了中国海岸带的分布和自然灾害发生的特点，并对其环境进行评估。分析指出，海岸带既是多种自然灾害频繁发生的地带，又是自然资源丰富、社会经济文化发达的地带。鉴于海岸带生态环境的脆弱性和继续恶化的趋势，今后应在掌握中国海岸带资源环境基本状况的基础上，对海岸带资源环境进行动态监测，预测未来海岸带资源环境发展趋势，从而增强中国社会、经济的可持续发展能力。     

A geography of natural perils

Earthquakes, tropical cyclones and floods are the most important natural perils in terms of human deaths on a global basis. In Australia, at least 4300 deaths in the last 200 years have been produced by heatwaves; about 2000–2200 each by tropical cyclones and floods; and bushfires and lightning strikes have each killed at least 650 people. On a global basis it appears that floods, tropical storms, droughts and earthquakes are the most damaging natural perils. In Australia, in terms of median damage per event, hailstorms are the most expensive insured natural peril, while three events—the 1989 Newcastle earthquake, 1974's Cyclone Tracy, and the 1990 Sydney hailstorm—produced 36 per cent of the total insured damage in the period since 1967. The Newcastle earthquake and the Sydney hailstorm have provided opportunities for new understandings of these perils and their consequences. While much has been learnt from the devastation of Rabaul town by the 1994 eruption, a rare opportunity for a detailed study of building damage has been lost. Without detailed studies, risk rating, where Risk = Hazard (or peril) × Vulnerability, is difficult.     

自然灾害复杂性研究

从自然灾害系统的观点出发,阐述了自然灾害系统的特点,提出了自然灾害复杂性的概念。基于前人研究的一些成果,讨论了分形,混沌,人工神经网络等非线性理论以及定性与定量综合集成技术在自然灾复杂性研究中的应用。     

西南山地滑坡灾害生态风险评价——以大理白族自治州为例

本文以云南省大理白族自治州为例,综合考量生态风险源、受体、暴露响应过程及生态终点,采用信息量模型评估滑坡灾害危险性,基于景观格局指数表征生态脆弱性,并将生态系统服务纳入风险损失的定量表征,定量评估流域滑坡灾害生态风险。结果表明：① 低于1800 m高程、15°~25°坡度、小于0.31植被覆盖指数等10方面因素构成了诱发大理州滑坡灾害的最佳信息量组合,全州普遍处于滑坡灾害危险性中高水平,且西北低、东南高;② 生态脆弱性高值区主要集中在红河流域南部、金沙江流域东南部、澜沧江流域中部;③ 低生态损失流域的水源涵养、粮食供给服务相对较差,生态损失中等流域的净初级生产、土壤保持服务优势明显,高生态损失流域则具有较强的粮食供给和水源涵养服务;④ 基于高中低3种生态风险等级和“高危险—低脆弱—低损失”等8种风险结构,全州367个小流域可划分出避让监测预警区、生态保护恢复区、避让保护兼顾区、自然适应调控区等4种风险防范类型区。     

区域人地耦合系统脆弱性及其评价指标体系

从概念界定与目标定位入手,以气候变化和系统结构要素为分析框架,建立了包括敏感性、暴露性和适应性等三类指标要素和本底脆弱性、潜在脆弱性和现实脆弱性等三个评价层次的区域脆弱性评价系统,并以南方丘陵地区为例,针对泥石流、滑坡、干旱与洪涝等区域自然灾害,构建了水土流失敏感区的人地耦合系统脆弱性评价指标体系。作者认为,区域人地耦合系统脆弱性主要是针对全球气候变化扰动下与自然灾害有关的脆弱性,敏感性与易损性是其脆弱性的本质属性,敏感性、暴露性和适应性是脆弱性的系统要素。自然灾害频率指标可以作为反映灾害空间集聚性的区位暴露性指标,现实灾害度可以提供脆弱性评价因子厘定、指标权重确定、模型建立与阈值分析的结果验证。     

沿海城市自然灾害风险研究

自然灾害是当代国际社会、学术界普遍关注的热点问题。随着自然灾害突发强度、频度和广度的不断增长,自然灾害预防工作显得格外重要。沿海城市作为人口集聚、国民经济、社会发展重要区域和战略中心,自然灾害带来的损失是剧烈、致命的,亟待开展沿海城市自然灾害风险研究。该领域目前主要探讨的问题：自然灾害类型与风险辨识;脆弱性评价指标体系与评价模型;自然灾害风险评估与风险管理;自然灾害数据管理范式研究等。沿海城市作为自然灾害频发和受损严重的地区,在全球变暖和快速城市化背景下,目前应集中开展自然灾害风险实证研究：沿海城市脆弱性评价指标体系和综合脆弱性评价方法;自然灾害风险评估程序规范和动态评估模型;自然灾害数据管理范式与模板;自然灾害风险评估GIS工具集等。     

Response of a Resilient Community to Natural Disasters: The Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal, 2015

The ability of a community to withstand and recover from adversities including natural and man-made disasters has emerged as a major policy issue in recent years. This research aims to assess the role of institutional initiatives in building resilient communities and their response to natural disasters like the Gorkha earthquake in Nepal in 2015. The work is based on data collected from primary and secondary sources along with field observations. It is evident that resilient communities are equipped with greater coping capacities in the face of natural disasters and have reduced vulnerability to future hazards. Institutional capacity building and resilient construction including the School Earthquake Safety Program ensured better disaster preparedness. The traditional open spaces and building designs added to the structural resilience. There is, however, a need to build back better and to communicate earthquake-resistant designs to the affected communities.     

论自然灾害经济损失评估研究的重要性

本文就当前国内外对灾害经济损失的认识、损失评估在灾害管理中的重要作用、灾害直接经济损失和间接经济损失评估存在的问题进行了综合分析,论证了灾害损失评估研究的重要性,区分了直接损失和间接损失的差异,阐述了间接损失评估的必要性和可行性。研究结果表明,直接损失和间接损失的评估同等重要、通过合理的评估方法得到的直接和间接损失的评估结果既是防灾减灾的迫切需求,也有利于提高防灾减损的管理水平。灾害学与经济学相结合是有效改进评估方法并提高灾害经济损失评估水平的有效途径。     

Spatiotemporal pattern of the dynamics in area,production, and yield of Aus rice in Bangladesh and its response to droughts from 1980 to 2018

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to natural disasters such as droughts in the world. The pre-monsoon Aus rice in Bangladesh depends on rainfall...     

基于GIS技术的泥石流风险评价研究

为了满足对自然灾害预测不断增长的紧迫要求，泥石流风险评价成为帮助决策过程重要的基础工具之一。即使泥石流风险性各组分的评价很困难，但地理信息系统可辅助提出这种风险性制图的有关方法。我们以云南省为研究区，选取6个成因因子参与泥石流危险度敏感性分析，通过将研究区易损性评价图与危险性评价图叠加分析，编制出云南省泥石流风险评价图。该图描述了在现有自然条件和人类活动下的泥石流风险敏感区。研究成果为全面反映灾情，确定减灾目标，优化防御措施，进行减灾决策提供了重要依据。     

Unplanned urban growth: land use/land cover change in the Guwahati Metropolitan Area,India

Unplanned urban growth, particularly in developing countries has led to changes in land use/land cover (LULC). Numerous Indian cities face problems of unplanned LULC change due to nominal or non-existent planning efforts compounded by rapid urban population growth. The Guwahati Metropolitan Area (GMA) is one such urban centre. The present study assesses the trajectories of LULC change using Landsat imageries acquired in 1976, 1989, 2002 and 2015. Natural and semi natural vegetated area and artificial and natural water bodies decreased while built-up areas, cultivated and managed areas, and natural and semi natural non-vegetated areas increased. The built-up area increased from 23.9 in 1976 to 115.1 km² in 2015 becoming the dominant land cover class accounting for 41.8% of the total geographical area. During this period, natural and semi natural vegetated land were reduced by 88.9 km² at an annual rate of 2.2 km². Over the years there was an increasing trend of built-up land and cultivated and managed areas in the peripheral areas of the city while natural and semi natural vegetated land diminished. Consequently, as in many other developing countries, there is an urgent need for the governmental authorities and other stakeholders to implement effective urban planning policies.     

A survey of natural aggregate properties and characteristics important in remote sensing and airborne geophysics

Natural aggregate is vital to the construction industry. Although natural aggregate is a high volume/low value commodity that is abundant, new sources are becoming increasingly difficult to find and develop because of rigid industry specifications, political considerations, development and transportation costs, and environmental concerns. There are two primary sources of natural aggregate: (1) exposed or near-surface bedrock that can be crushed, and (2) deposits of sand and gravel. Remote sensing and airborne geophysics detect surface and near-surface phenomena, and may be useful for detecting and mapping potential aggregate sources; however, before a methodology for applying these techniques can be developed, it is necessary to understand the type, distribution, physical properties, and characteristics of natural aggregate deposits.The distribution of potential aggregate sources is closely tied to local geologic history. Conventional exploration for natural aggregate deposits has been largely a ground-based operation, although aerial photographs and topographic maps have been extensively used to target possible deposits. Today, the exploration process also considers factors such as the availability of the land, space and water supply for processing, political and environmental factors, and distance from the market; exploration and planning cannot be separated.There are many physical properties and characteristics by which to judge aggregate material for specific applications; most of these properties and characteristics pertain only to individual aggregate particles. The application of remote sensing and airborne geophysical measurements to detecting and mapping potential aggregate sources, however, is based on intrinsic bulk physical properties and extrinsic characteristics of the deposits that can be directly measured, mathematically derived from measurement, or interpreted with remote sensing and geophysical data. On the cover: Northward view of alluvial fans along San Luis Valley, southcentral colorado. This image was created in the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Remote Sensing laboratory by digitally draping SPOT panchromatic satellite data resampled to 30 meters pixels resolution over the 124,000 USGS DEM of the Bonanza, Whle Hill, Bushnell Peak, Graveyard Guich, Klondike Mine, and Villa Grove quadrangles.     

城市灾害社会脆弱性研究热点问题评述与展望

对城市灾害社会脆弱性研究的热点问题及趋向进行了深入的梳理和总结。研究发现,现阶段社会脆弱性研究已经成为城市灾害脆弱性的重要研究范式,但学者们在城市灾害社会脆弱性综合维度的界定、脆弱性评估方法构建、社会脆弱性与灾害种类相关性判读以及研究尺度选取等方面存在明显的争议。对这些争议进行了深入探讨,并对未来城市灾害社会脆弱性研究进行了展望,以期为中国城市防灾减灾工作提供科学参考。