Period components in the monthly mean sea level variations in the Pacific Ocean

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Trend analysis of relative sea level rise or fall of the tide gauge stations in the Pacific

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最平滤波器在分析月平均潮位资料中的应用

应用数字滤波方法来消除验潮资料中的高频扰动而分离出海平面的趋势性变化，并设计了最平滤波器；对其幅频响应特性和相位特性的验证表明，最平滤波器的技术性能基本上是可靠的。应用最平滤波器对月平均验潮序列进行低通数字滤波，可以有效地消除验潮资料中的高频扰动，分离出低频变化。从数值计算过程、高频扰动机制及实测验潮资料的估算结果来看，低通数字滤波在确定海平面长期变化趋势中，对消除高频扰动的影响是非常重要而有效的。     

近几十年来珠江三角洲网河水位时空变化及原因初探

根据珠江三角洲网河区25站的验潮序列,应用功率谱分析和正、反傅氏变换方法对网河区月均水位序列的周期变化和趋势变化进行研究,探讨大规模人类采砂活动对珠江三角洲网河区近几十年来水位变化的影响。结果表明:水位序列中包含0.2~11.7 a多尺度的显著周期波动;应用正、反傅氏变换方法消除月均序列中的短周期波动(消除6 a以短的周期),由低通序列进行一元线性回归分析确定水位变化率,变化率从－3.8到3.7 mm/a不等,珠江三角洲网河区水位总体呈上升趋势。从网河区上段到下段再到口门,水位变化趋势由下降转为上升;变化率由负转正,并逐渐增大。网河区上段部分验潮站水位下降主要与西北江网河上段大规模无序采砂引起的河床大幅人为下切有关;大规模采砂导致局部水位下降,使不同时段的水位变化率发生波动,甚至造成部分验潮站的水位变化由缓慢上升转为大幅下降的"逆变"。     

Sea level change along the coast of China relative to the isostatic datum

On the basis of the analyses of significant periods for the sea level observation data taken from recent several decades at 12 tide stations, the monthly mean sea level observations are fitted by a model of linear trend of sea level change superimposed with several variations of different fixed periods. The trends of sea level relative changes and their errors are estimated by the LS method. The results are reduced to the isostatic datum proposed and established in the paper (Huang et al. , 1991, Seismology and Geology , 1, 1-15). The trends of sea level changes in the near future along the coast of China are studied. It is pointed out that the general trend of the sea level change along the coast of China is going up slowly and the rate of the change is not the same in different segments of the coasts. In a few segments, the sea level is even relatively going down. The numerical results given in this paper provide a basis for the predictions of the future sea level changes and their effects.     

Monthly mean sea level variability along the west coast of southern Africa

Principal components analysis was used to examine monthly data on sea level obtained from tide-gauge records from the west coast of southern Africa over the period 1957—1975. After a simple correction had removed the effect of local atmospheric pressure, this statistical analysis revealed the structure of nearshore ocean variability over time periods of months to years. The first principal component, accounting for over 55 per cent of the variability in monthly mean sea level, was a near uniform rise and fall everywhere along the west coast of southern Africa. The spectrum of this large-scale structure showed a strong interannual trend, which correlated well with long-term trends of temperature anomaly over the entire South-East Atlantic, and a high-frequency term, which could not be resolved at a time period of one month. The second principal component showed the contrasting response of the northern and southern sites on a seasonal scale, and it could be correlated with seasonal wind data. These results compared well with similar analysis carried out in the North Pacific Ocean.     

天津近海潮汐特征分析

对塘沽海洋环境监测站从1950年-2008年,59年的潮汐资料进行调和分析,分析了其分潮调和常数的变化曲线,并利用FFT谱分析方法对其调和常数的变化周期和原因进行了分析;之后应用FFT谱分析方法对去除天文潮后的余水位进行分解,分析了近50多年来年平均余水位的多层次周期分布,进而利用最小二乘法进行线性分析,分析了天津近海...     

The circularly propagating pattern of the low-frequencyfluctuations of monthly MSL in the tropical PacificOcean and its correlation with El Nino

The long-term time series analysis of the SST (sea surface temperature) in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the monthly MSL (mean sea level) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is conducted. Their quasiperiodic and low-frequency oscillation features are revealed. The significant periods of low-frequency fluctuations for monthly MSL in the area of 20°N-20° S are between 43. 5 months and 50. 0 months, approximating closely to 47. 6 months which is the significant period of SST in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. From the results of space-spectral analysis, the low-frequency fluctations of monthly MSL in the tropical Pacific Ocean appear to have a anticlockwise circularly-propagating pattern, which is, the Eastern Pacific Ocean (off-shore of Mexico) →the area of NEC (North Equatorial Current) →the Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean→the area of NECC (North Equatorial Counter-Current)→the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phases of the pattern correspond to those of El Nino cycle. On the basis     

Pole tide in the Baltic Sea

The pole tide, which is driven by the Chandler Wobble, has a period of about 14 months and typical amplitudes in the World Ocean of ～0.5 cm. However, in the Baltic Sea the pole tide is anomalously high. To examine this effect we used long-term hourly sea level records from 23 tide gauges and monthly records from 64 stations. The lengths of the series were up to 123 years for hourly records and 211 years for monthly records. High-resolution spectra revealed a cluster of neighboring peaks with periods from 410 to 440 days. The results of spectral analysis were applied to estimate the integral amplitudes of pole tides from all available tide gauges along the coast of the Baltic Sea. The height of the pole tide was found to gradually increase from the entrance (Danish Straits, 1.5–2 cm) to the northeast end of the sea. The largest amplitudes—up to 4.5–7 cm—were observed in the heads of the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Bothnia. Significant temporal fluctuations in amplitudes and periods of the pole tide were observed during the 19th and 20th centuries.     

A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE VARIATION OF MONTHLY MEAN SEA LEVEL OF THE SEAS NEAR CHINA AND ITS CAUSES

This paper deals with the variations of the monthly mean sea level of the seas near China. The distribution charts of mean, sea level in winter and in summer are given. The monthly mean sea level variations are mainly caused by monsoon, sea currents and the fluctuation of atmosphen'c pressure. The annual range of monthly mean sea level is 50 -70 cm in the northern part of the seas near China, and 20-40 cm in the southern part. The variation period of the monthly mean sea level of the seas near China is principally annual one.     

A model for predicting SST in limited region-Ⅰ. The dynamical equations

Starting from physical oceanology characteristics of the China seas and for the short-term operational prediction of SST in the region,a two-dimensional (vertically integrated) primitive equation model,physically reasonable and operationally feasible,on the upper mixed layer is constructed and given here,which consists of three parts,the nondivergent residual current (the monthly mean field of the Kuroshio and its branches) equations,the dynamic forecasting equations,and the equation of model''s physics consisting of surface heat flux,coolings of the upper mixed layer due to the Ekman pumping and the entrainment by gale.This model may be used primarily to forecast the sea surface temperature,and to give estimations of the mean wind-driven current and the sea level,for a period of 3-5 d.In part 1 of this series,the physical conditions for establishing model equations are discussed first,that is,1.the existence of the upper well mixed layer in the region; 2.the distinguishability of currents 3.the splitting of thermodynamical equation.The equations of nondivergent residual current,and the dynamic forecasting equations with initial values and boundary conditions are also discussed.     

带周期项的海平面变化灰色分析模型及广西海平面变化分析

提出了一种带周期项的海平面变化灰色分析模型.该模型保持了GM(1,1)模型能较好反应海平面变化趋势的优点,不仅能求出海平面变化速率,还能方便求出海平面变化的加速度,同时,该模型能较好的模拟海平面变化中的周期现象,从而克服了GM(1,1)不能预报周期性显著的月平均海面的缺点,并提高了预报精度.模型用于广西沿岸海平面变化分析,结果表明北海、涸洲、白龙尾3站的相对海平面上升速率分别为1.67、2.51、0.89mm/a;石头埠相对海平面呈下降趋势,下降速率为0.5～1.0mm/a;广西沿岸绝对海平面上升速率为2.0mm/a.和线性趋势项与周期项叠加的海平面分析模型相比,两者模拟精度相当.     

基于奇异谱分析的深圳近海净初级生产力时间序列研究

海洋净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity, NPP)长时间序列分析可获取NPP多年变化趋势、季节变化等动态信息,对海洋环境的监测与预报具有重要意义。本文以2003～2013年月际尺度净初级生产力卫星遥感产品为数据源,通过奇异谱分析提取标准化净初级生产力时间序列的长期趋势和周期振荡特征。研究表明,①浮标监测数据的叶绿素a浓度、海表温度与MODIS的叶绿素a浓度、海表温度产品变化趋势基本一致,NPP时间序列产品可用于分析深圳近岸海域净初级生产力的变化趋势。②空间分布上,深圳西部海域的NPP和叶绿素a浓度远高于大鹏湾和大亚湾,大鹏湾和大亚湾的NPP和叶绿素a浓度均值及变化趋势非常接近。三个海区NPP、叶绿素a浓度、海表温度和光合有效辐射在季风转换期变化剧烈。③长期趋势上,深圳西部海域呈现2 a周期波动趋势,在均值附近以年为周期上下波动。大鹏湾和大亚湾2003～2006年NPP低于平均水平, 2008年后NPP开始以年为周期围绕平均值上下波动, 2012年后NPP整体与均值持平。④周期特征上,深圳西部海域、大鹏湾和大亚湾的NPP呈"W"或"M"型周年变化,存在夏季主高峰(6～7月)和冬季次高峰(12～1月)。     

1993—2001年全球海面高度变化特征

应用TOPEX／POSEIDON（T／P）卫星高度计测高资料，对全球海洋的海面变化特征进行了分析，结果表明，1993年1月－2001年6月期间，全球海平面呈现上升的态势；全球平均海平面高度的平均上升速率约为1．2mm/a；海温的变化是引起海平面变化的重要原因，便其对海平面抬升的贡献不到50％。海平面的变化具有很强的地域特征。海平面变化的空间分布特征受风应力异常特别是纬向风应力异常的空间分布影响较大。     

渤海冬季海冰反照率变化

渤海海冰对于大尺度气候变化比较敏感,基于CLARA-A1-SAL数据分析了1992~2008年冬季（12、1、2月）渤海海冰区域反照率的时空变化,同时分析了海冰密集度、海冰外延线面积和海水表面温度的变化与海冰反照率的相互关系。渤海海冰区域反照率随时间波动变化且变化趋势不明显,趋势线斜率仅为0.0388%。年际变化在9.93%~14.5%之间,平均值为11.79%。海冰反照率在1999,2000和2005等重冰年的值明显高于其他年份,在1994,1998,2001和2006等轻冰年的值较低。从单个月份反照率来看,12月海冰反照率的增加趋势（趋势线斜率0.0988%）明显高于1月和2月,1月的海冰反照率平均值（12.9%）高于另外两个月份。海冰反照率和海冰密集度呈明显的正相关关系;和海表面温度呈负相关关系（显著性水平90%）。     

Mediterranean Sea level trends from long-period tide gauge time series

The main purpose of this study is to highlight， on the basis of statistical tests， the significant long-term changes of the Mediterranean Sea level， through the analysis of historical tide gauge records. In this framework， 14 tide gauge monthly series selected from the Permanent Service of the Mean Sea Level （PSMSL） database were used. The search for the presence or not of trends within these series， that have a temporal coverage from 59 to 142 years， was carried out using the Mann-Kendall test and the Sen''s slope estimator. The obtained results show that the Split Rt Marjana series are the only ones which does not exhibit a significant trend. The other 13 series show significant increasing trends. This result seems sufficient to suppose the presence， in the past century， of a new climatic phase on the scale of the Mediterranean basin， where the rising sea level is one of the consequences.