The numerical criteria and characteristics of El Nino and La Nina

-By using the sea surface temperature (SST) index of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean provided by Climate Analysis Center of U. S. A. , the numerical criteria of El Nino and La Nina events and their quantitative characteristics were calculated. Results show that the El Nino event was characterized with strong intensity, shorter life cycle and significant mature phase; however, the La Nina event has longer live cycle, weak intensity, insignificant mature phase. Through teleconnection analysis, it is found that the intensity index of SST over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean leads the intensity index of subtropical high by six months or so. During the El Nino years, the tropical cyclone over the northwestern Pacific is fewer than normal but stronger, and its genesis area shifts southeastward apparently; while in the La Nina years the number of tropical cyclones are larger.     

El Ni■o对南沙群岛海域表层水温、波浪及海况的影响

根据南沙群岛海域船舶报的表层水温和波浪资料,分析了ElMino事件对该海域上述水文要素的影响。结果表明：（1）在该海域与赤道东太平洋,表层水温变化是同位相,而与赤道西太平洋呈反位相;（2）在ElNino年,南沙群岛海域海况恶劣,大浪频率增加;更以ElNino的次年为甚。文中对产生以上现象的原因作了初步探讨。     

Threshold autoregression models for forecasting El Nino events

-In this paper, monthly mean SST data in a large area are used. After the spacial average of the data is carried out and the secular monthly means are substracted, a time series (Jan. 1951-Dec. 1985) of SST anomalies of the cold tongue water area in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean is obtained. On the basis of the time series, an autoregression model, a self-exciting threshold autoregression model and an open loop autoregression model are developed respectively. The interannual variations are simulated by means of those models. The simulation results show that all the three models have made very good hindcasting for the nine El Nino events since 1951. In order to test the reliability of the open loop threshold model, extrapolated forecast was made for the period of Jan. 1986-Feb. 1987. It can be seen from the forecasting that the model could forecast well the beginning and strengthening stages of the recent El Nino event (1986-1987). Correlation coefficients of the estimations to observations are resp     

赤道太平洋上层海洋垂向温度梯度距平与El Nio的关系

用赤道太平洋长达21a的温度资料以及经验正交函数(EOF)分析方法,讨论了在5°S-5°N平均纬向垂直剖面上赤道太平洋垂向温度梯度距平的时空变化,得到了一些有意义的结果。赤道太平洋垂向温度梯度距平EOF分析第1模态的正/负位相反映了El Nino/La Nina发生前赤道太平洋温跃层的分布,第2模态的正/负位相反映了El Nino/La Nina鼎盛以及开始衰减时赤道太平洋温跃层的分布。根据我们对赤道太平洋温跃层核心位置的定义,在El Nino向LaNina转换的过程中,赤道东太平洋温跃层上升了30-40m,而赤道中太平洋温跃层先是上升了40-50m,然后又下降了40-50m,赤道西太平洋温跃层下降了90m;随着赤道西太平洋暖水的堆积以及东移,温跃层首先在赤道西太平洋加深,El Nino发生前赤道中东太平洋温跃层开始加深,El Nino达到鼎盛时赤道西太平洋温跃层抬升,而赤道中东太平洋温跃层加深;赤道太平洋垂向温度梯度距平EOF分析第1特征向量的时间系数与Nino3区的SST距平有非常好的相关,并且超前于Nino3区的SST距平,超前3个月的相关系数高达0.7017,超前6个月的相关系数高达0.6467,因此可以用该量来预测Nino3区的SST距平。     

El Nino and the Southern Oscillation

Using the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), wind, surface pressure and SST fields in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and the Equatorial South Indian Ocean were analysed comprehensively.lt is pointed out that the seesaw between surface pressure in the Equatorial South Indian Ocean and the Equatorial Southeast Pacific causes the seesaw between the wind fields in the two areas, and the seesaw of wind fields results in the seesaw of SST between Indonesia and the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. El Nino is the response of ocean to the forcing of monsoon system in the Indian Ocean and the trade system in the Pacific.     

The diagnosis for the tropical Pacific Ocean conditions in 1990

In this paper, on the basis of the observational hydrographic data obtained from the eighth cruise of PRC-USA bilateral air-sea interaction program, and combined with the sea surface temperature (SST) charts provided by NOAA, the data obtained from moored thermistor chains supplied by L. J. Mangum and sea level data provided by K. Wyrtki, the ocean conditions since October, 1989 in the western tropical Pacific are exposed, which indicate that 1990 is a year with weak El Nino event similar to the 1980 El Nino event, and the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC) has made a good contribution to the propagation of warm water from the Western to the Central and Eastern Pacific, a characteristic similar to that of the 1976 El Nino event. The 1990 weak El Nino event will soon fall into decay.     

Changes of equatorial wind fields in the Western Pacific and El Nino

The relationship between SST in the Eastern Pacific and equatorial wind fields in the Western Pacific is analysed by using COADS.It is pointed out that in the year before El Nino , the continuative easterly anomalies and the meridional anomalies blowing from the Equator to both sides in the Equatorial Western Pacific cause the sea level in the Western Pacific to rise higher than in the Eastern Pacific and the sea level at the Equator to drop lower than on both sides of it. In the El Nino year, the westerly anomalies and the meridional anomalies blowing from both sides to the Equator bring warm water to build up around the Equator. At such times Kelvin waves are generated and they play an important role in raising SST in the Eastern Pacific. It is also emphatically pointed out that in the El Nino year the two maxima of the equatorial westerly anomalies, the two cross-equatorial air flows from the Northern Hemisphere to the Southern one and the two maxima of the near-equatorial tropical cyclones in the Eq     

The PNA wavetrain and the sea surface temperature in the Northern Pacific

In this paper, the response of the atmospheric 3-5 year cycle to Northern Pacific SST is discussed, The results are as follows:1. From the simultaneous temporal correlations between the Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST, the westerly dirft area's SST and the Northern Pacific SST at all gridpoints, we find that there are three correlative regions in the Northern Pacific SST field, they are the westerly drift area, the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and the Alaska Bay , and their structures are very similar to the PNA pattern in the atmosphere The difference PTI between the Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST anomaly and the westerly drift area's SST anomaly can indicate the change of the PNA pattern of the Northern Pacific SST anomaly. It can represent SST change of 65 % areas over the Northern Pacific and can keep watch on El Nino and un-El Nino.2. Simultaneous temporal correlative field between PTI and filtered 500hPa (there is 3-5 year cycle only ) of the Northern Hemisphere presents clear PNA structure. The resp     

Numerical simulation of the tropical Pacific response to equatorial wind stress anomalies

The results of the tropical Pacific response to the sudden onset of the equatorial wind stress anomalies are discussed. The ocean model is a barotropic, non-linearized one that includes reduced-gravity and an equation for the temperature of the ocean mixed-layer. The experiments are based on a state of equilibrium reached through a long running under the action of annual mean wind stress. There are two kinds of westward wind intensity regions: the whole tropical Pacific and the western tropical Pacific, which are all between latitude 6. 8癗 and 6. 8癝.In these cases, the results show that the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Eastern Pacific and the negative SST anomalies in the Western Pacific are produced, and the positive SST anomalies propagate eastward, just as those observed during the actual El Nino phenomena. The propagations of the Kelvin waves and Rossby waves in the ocean are discussed.Another experiment is also carried out in simulating the process of the decay of El Ni     

The strong winter monsoon in East Asia and El Nino

- The relationship between meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific is analysed in this paper. It is pointed out that there exist close relations between the seasonal changes of the meridional wind in mid - latitudes of East Asia and SST in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. The intensification of north winds over East Asia also plays an important role in the rise of SST in Equatorial Eastern Pacific one year later. The strong winter monsoon usually occurs in previous winter of El Nino and it causes low temperature to a great extent in China . The low temperature in China can be regarded as a precursor of El Nino.     

Analysis of the air-sea heat exchange during the El Nino event in 1983

In this paper,by using the ECMWF objective analysed data as well as CAC and NOAA grid point data of 1981 and 1983,the sensible and latent heat fluxes at the air and sea boundary surface within the range of 45°E-75°W, 35°N-35°S over the Pacific and the Indian Ocean are calculated. The purpose is to analyse the different revealing features during the mature stage and at the end of the 1982 -1983 El Nino event and to compare the difference of the features between thd El Nino and the normal. The result shows that the air and sea heat exchange west of the dateline over the central tropical Pacific during the EJ Nino period is more intense than that of the normal. However,the fluxes of the sensible and latent heat on the sea surface with strong warming of SSTneat by and on the south side of the equator east of 170°W are low and even negative,and the patterns of the sensible and latent heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean during the year of 1983 are similer to that of normal. Spatial patterns of the sensible     

近年来厄尔尼诺期间北赤道流输运的年际变化

为了研究近年来厄尔尼诺期间北赤道流输运的年际变化,本文利用海洋客观分析数据MOAA GPV(Grid Point Value of the Monthly Objective Analysis)以及P-vector方法计算了北太平洋绝对地转流,探讨了2001~2013年期间厄尔尼诺与北赤道流输运之间的关系。在此期间发生的4次厄尔尼诺事件中,北赤道流输运在2002~2003、2006~2007、2009~2010年的厄尔尼诺成熟期都出现了明显的增强,但是在2004~2005年的厄尔尼诺成熟期并没有明显的增强。进一步分析发现,在2002~2003年、2006~2007年、2009~2010年的厄尔尼诺成熟期,10°N以南的热带西北太平洋区域出现了负的海面高度异常和气旋式环流异常,这主要是由热带环流区域出现的西风异常和正的Ekman抽吸通过Rossby波西传到热带西太平洋区域所致;但是在2004~2005年厄尔尼诺成熟期,海面温度异常的分布明显不同,西风异常和正的Ekman抽吸异常明显北移,导致负的海面高度异常和气旋式环流异常出现在了10°N以北的西北太平洋区域,使得北赤道流输运在2004~2005年的厄尔尼诺成熟期没有明显的增强。     

Abnormality of thermal structure and current in the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean and its effect on subtropical high

-Mainly on the basis of the data obtained during PRC/US bilateral TOGA cruises, abnormal variation occurred during the 1986/1987 El Nino is shown in this paper about the thermal structure and circulation of the upper western tropical Pacific Ocean. The effects of the abmormal variation on the subtropical high over the Northwest Pacific Ocean are discussed. During the El Nino: (1) In the east part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 165° E section are taken as an example), the water wanner than 29 C in the upper layer spread on the longitudinal section and positive temperature anormalies appeared in a large area of the sea surface. (2) In the west part of the western tropical Pacific Ocean (the subsurface temperature data on the 137°E section are representative ), the cross section occupied by the upper layer warmer water ( T >28 ℃ ) became shrunk, and the sea surface temperature showed negative amomalies. (3) The eastward flows in the upper layer of the 165°     

南沙暖水变化及其与ENSO和西太副高的耦合关系

南沙暖水域位于南海南部,濒临赤道,处于Walker环流上升区和南北半球气流交换的通道上,是南海海温较高的区域,也是海气相互作用的敏感地区。热带海域海洋及大气环流的变化对该海域海温的变化有着重要影响。 以往的研究表明,南海海温与赤道中、东太平洋水温和西太平洋副热带高压关系密切(钮智旺,1994;陈永利,1996)。南海是一个半封闭性海域,南海海温的变化与热带西太平洋水温之间具有非“承接”性(周发琇,1991),与西太平洋之间的水体交换不可能是引起南海海温变化的主要原因。那么,赤道中、东太平洋海温及副高是通过什么过程影响南海海温呢?它们之间的相互关系如何?西太平洋副热带高压是控制南海海域的主要天气系统，厄尔尼诺和南方涛动是热带太平洋地区海洋、大气中的两种大尺度异常现象,南海海温与它们之间的耦合关系可能就是影响海温变化的过程。本文根据综合海洋大气资料(COADS),分析了南沙暖水的变化与南海海温的关系,并借助功率谱和交叉谱分析了南沙暖水的变化周期以及与赤道东、中太平洋水温、南方涛动和西太副高之间的显著耦合频域及相互耦合振荡关系,以探讨南沙暖水与ENSO(埃尔尼诺-南方涛动)和西太副高之间的内在联系及海温变化的原因,对于研究南沙暖水域及南海海温变化的物理成因有着重要意义。     

El Ni(n)o phenomenon in simple ocean data assimilation data

To study how the air and sea interact with each other during El Nino/La Nina onsets, extended associate pattern analysis (EAPA) is adopted with the simple ocean data assimilation (SODA) data. The results show that as El Nino/La Nina' s parents their behaviors are quite different, there does not exist a relatively independent tropical atmosphere but does exist a relatively independent tropical Pacific Ocean because the air is heated from the bottom surface instead of the top surface and of much stronger baroclinic instability than the sea and has a very large inter-tropical convergence zone covering the most tropical Pacific Ocean. The idea that it is the wester burst and wind convergence, coming from middle latitudes directly that produce the seawater eastward movement and meridional convergence in the upper levels and result in the typical El Nino sea surface temperature warm signal is confirmed again.     

The heat balance on the sea surface in the mature phase of 1982/83 El Nino event

Using the air-sea data set of January, 1983 (the mature phase of the 1982/83 El Nino event), the net radiation on the sea surface, the fluxes of the latent and the sensible heat from ocean to the atmosphere and the net heat gain of the sea surface are calculated over the Indian and the Pacific Oceans for the domain of 35°N-35°S and 45°E-75°W. The results indicate that the upward transfer of the latent and the sensible heat fluxes over the winter hemisphere is larger than that over the summer hemisphere. The sensible heat over the tropical mid Pacific in the Southern Hemisphere is transported from the atmosphere to the ocean, though its magnitude is rather small. The latent heat flux gained by the air over the eastern Pacific is less than the mean value of the normal year. The net radiation, on which the cloud amount has considerable impact, is essentially zonally distributed. Moreover, the sea surface temperature (SST) has a very good correlation with the net radiation, the region of warm SST coinci     

Interaction between two polar cold source and tropical ocean heat source effecting global climate change

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热带西太平洋、印度洋表层水温的变异特性及其对南极冰面积变化的响应

应用海洋表层水温资料（ＣＯＡＤＳ资料）,分析研究了对全球气候有重要影响的热带西太平洋、印度洋海洋表层水温的年变化和年际变化的特性,探讨了与ＥＮＳＯ和南极冰面积变化之间的联系。结果表明,热带西太平洋及印度洋表层水温具有明显的年变化和年际变化而且它们之间存在不同的变化趋势。这种结果是两大洋的水温振荡周期不同有较大关系。热带印度洋表层水温的年际变化与Ｅ１ Ｎｉ￣／ｎｏ和Ｌａ Ｎｉ￣／ｎａ的发生年份存在较     

Spatial and temporal variability of heat content above the thermocline in the tropical Pacific Ocean

Abstract-Heat content of the upper layer above the 20℃ isotherm in the tropical Pacific Ocean isestimated by using the sea temperature data set with a resolution 2°latitude×5°longitude (1980～1993)for the water depths (every 10 m) from 0 m to 400 m, and its temporal and spatial variabilities are an-alyzed. (1) The temporal variability indicates that the total heat in the upper layer of the equatorial Pa-cific Ocean is charcterized by the interannual variability. The time series of the equatorial heat anomaly5 months lead that of the El Nino index at the best positive lag correlation between the two, and theformer 13 months lag behind the latter at their best negative lag correlation. Therefore the equatorialheat content can be used as a better predictor than the El Nino index for a warm or cold event. In addi-tion, it is also found that less heat anomaly in the equator corresponds to the stronger warm events inthe period (1980～1993) and much more heat was accumulated in the 4 years including 1992/1     

CHARACTERISTICS ON INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF NORTH PACIFIC SST AND ITS RELATION TO EAST ASIA CLIMATE

The interannual variations of the monthly sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific (including Equatorial East Pacific) during 1951-1980 are analysed by means of EOF method. The findings are:(1) In the cold and warm ocean current areas, such as the North Pacific Current, the California Current and the Equatorial East Pacific areas, the convergence speeds are the fastest, while in the Kuroshio and the western part of the North Equatorial Current areas they are fast only in winter.(2) The physical features of the first 3 eigenvectors are obvious. The first eigenvector shows that the SST values are high in the south and low in the north in the latitudinal distribution of the SST field. The warm current area, i.e. the northwestern part of the North Pacific is positive and the cold current area, i.e. the southeastern part of the North Pacific including the Eastern Equatorial Pacific is negative. The zero line of the 2nd eigenvector field runs from northeast to southwest, in the same direction as the