黄河以北地区东线引江问题的探讨

南水北调东线一期工程1990年完成后,长江之水将被引至黄河南岸的东平湖,设计入东平湖的流量为50立方米/秒^[1]。第一期工程完成后,要不要扩大调水规模,把江水北送过黄河?江水调过黄河以后环境后效如何?引江穿黄与黄河水沙资源利用的关系如何?这些问题关系到南水北调东线第二期工程的规划与最终调水的规模,本文从黄河以北地区的现实情况出发,对几个有关的问题进行了分析。     

基于氢氧同位素与水化学的潮白河流域地下水水循环特征

为了研究变化环境下潮白河流域地下水水循环规律,通过现场调查,结合环境同位素及水化学应用,对潮白河流域浅层和深层地下水采样,测定其氢、氧环境同位素及水化学成分,通过分析其变化特征判明地下水的补给来源以及各含水层的相互联系。降水和地下水中的环境同位素δD和δ¹⁸O组成分析表明,降水是山前地下水的主要补给源,山区浅层地下水受蒸发影响非常强烈。水化学研究结果表明,山区地下水水质以 Ca²⁺和 HCO^-₃为主,属Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-HCO^-₃型地下水。山前地下水类型为Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-HCO^-₃、 Na⁺-K⁺-HCO^-₃、Mg²⁺-Ca²⁺-HCO^-₃和 Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-Cl^--SO^2-₄。平原区地下水为Mg²⁺, Na⁺和HCO^-₃。滨海冲积海积平原为Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-HCO^-₃型和Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-Cl^--SO^2-₄型地下水。水化学分析证实了越流补给的存在。Ca²⁺ 和 HCO^-₃离子均呈山区高、山前和平原低、而滨海增高的趋势。沿潮白河流向地下水类型变化为:Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-HCO^-₃ Na⁺＝K⁺-HCO^-₃ Ca²⁺-Mg²⁺-HCO^-₃。     

南水北调中线工程对汉江中下游的影响分析

本文分别计算了丹江口水库１９６９－１９９０年实际下泄流量过程和大坝加高向黄淮海地区调水１５×１０９ｍ３后下泄过程在２０２０水平年下汉江中下游各点的水位流量过程，比较了两者的水位流量差①，分析了丹江口水库调水对汉江中下游各点水位和流量的影响以及引起的灌溉用水和航运的变化。结果表明，丹江口水库调水后，丹江口水库下游各点的多年平均水位、流量将下降，流量过程趋于缓和，洪水流量减少，枯水流量增加；灌溉取水量减少，破坏状况加重，枯水期航运流量增加，但中水期航运时段减少。最后，作者对汉江中下游补偿工程提出了建议。     

土壤盐分特征对内陆盐沼盐生植物群落的影响

为研究内陆盐沼植物群落的分布对土壤盐分的响应特征,选取鄂尔多斯盐湖盐沼区作为研究区,筛选了肉质耐盐植物群落,苔草植物群落和禾草植物群落3类典型植物群落,开展了土壤含水量、pH、电导率以及Na_⁺,K_⁺,Mg2_⁺,Ca_{^{2 +}},Cl_^-、SO_4^2-、CO_3^2-和HCO_3^-的测定,分析了区内典型植物群落对土壤水盐因子的响应规律。探讨了3类植物群落之间土壤因子含量的差异性;采用相关性分析和CCA分析,评价了3类植物群落多样性及物种分布随土壤因子的变化规律。结果表明,区内3类植物群落中,土壤盐分含量表现为肉质耐盐植物群落最高,苔草植物群落最低,禾草植物群落居中;植物多样性与土壤中含量最高的Na_⁺和SO_4^2-的相关性最显著;植物分布同时受到土壤盐分、水分和pH的显著影响。研究结果可为鄂尔多斯盐湖区土壤盐渍化改良和植被恢复提供理论支撑。     

松嫩平原西部盐沼湿地水环境化学特征

松嫩平原西部盐沼湿地水环境碱化程度高,水中的pH值普遍高于8.0,多数为苏打钠型水。在对本区盐沼基本水环境化学特征阐述的基础上,通过对水化学的基本变量CO₃^2-、HCO₃^2-、Cl^-、Ca²⁺、Mg²⁺、SO₄^2-、Na⁺和派生变量(Cl^-+SO₄^2-)/HCO₃^2-及Na⁺/(Ca²⁺ Mg²⁺)等的相关分析,得出各水化学变量之间的相关关系,并以pH值为分类基础得到了判别函数和判别区域图,对区域盐沼湿地水环境化学特征的研究方法作出了有意义的尝试。     

南水北调东线水质污染和湖泊水生经济的系统分析

本文讨论了我国南水北调东线水质污染的产生及其对调水水质的影响,同时对调水区域内工业排水与治理经济模式和湖泊水生经济系统的最优化分析进行了探论.     

气候变化对河北省海河流域径流量的影响

利用河北省境内海河流域51个气象站、68个水文站1956~2000年近50年的气象、径流量数据,分析了气象要素和径流量的变化规律。河北省境内海河流域多年平均地表径流量为67.0×10⁸m³,从20世纪 50 年代至 90 年代地表径流量呈逐渐减小的趋势,50年代为105.3×10⁸m³,90年代为54.7×10⁸m³。地表径流量随降水量的减少而减小,随气温的升高而下降,用回归方法建立的径流量与气象要素之间的模型为对数模型。根据未来气候变化情景对河北省海河流域径流量的预测:2030年为70.0~76.8×10⁸m³,2050年为69.8~76.9×10⁸m³。     

渭河关中段洪水资源化潜力评估

洪水资源化是实施渭河流域关中段流域资源综合管理和实现区域经济可持续发展的必然要求和重要途径。通过对渭河流域关中段来水来沙丰枯变化规律和河道冲淤特性的分析,从有利于输水输沙减少泥沙淤积考虑,确定渭河中游洪峰2000m³/s、渭河下游段3000m³/s为洪水利用起算标准;依据这一标准,计算出林家村—魏家堡河段平均年可利用洪水水量、洪水沙量分别为4.038×10⁷m³、6.83×10⁶t,魏家堡—咸阳河段平均年可利用洪水水量、洪水沙量分别为为9.139×10⁷m³、6.05×10⁶t,咸阳—华县河段平均年可利用洪水水量、洪水沙量分别为1.617×10⁸m³、1.843×10⁷t;流域综合管理过程中,必须引入风险管理机制,利用优化理论寻找平衡机制,实现流域防洪、供水和生态保护兼顾的最佳效益。     

锡林河流域羊草草原暗栗钙土矿质氮动态变化

通过野外采样,分析了内蒙古锡林河流域三个不同放牧强度羊草草原0～30cm表层土壤中矿质氮（NH₄⁺-N+NO₃^--N）的浓度特征,研究了它们在生长季期间的含量变化情况。结果表明:羊草草原暗栗钙土中矿质氮主要以NH₄⁺-N形式存在,矿质氮含量仅占土壤全氮的0.20%～0.92%;土壤矿质氮含量随草地放牧强度升高而降低,围封禁牧多年的羊草样地矿质氮含量高于轮牧地和自由放牧地;生长季期间0～10cm、10～20cm和20～30cm各层次土壤NH₄⁺-N和NO₃^--N含量随土壤温度、水分和植物生长吸收的变化而波动明显,不同深度土壤矿质氮的季节变化趋势基本一致,表层0～10cm土壤矿质氮含量波动幅度最大:在4月和7、8月份,NO₃^--N和NH₄⁺-N浓度分别出现峰值;NH₄⁺-N和NO₃^--N含量随采样深度增加而降低,各采样点0～30cm土壤中NH₄⁺-N含量均高于NO₃^--N。     

内蒙古西部地区盐湖水化学特征

2008年9~10月和2009年9月对内蒙古西部地区14个盐湖进行了考察、采样和分析。研究发现,本区盐湖卤水主要离子含量顺序为Na⁺>Cl->SO2-₄>Mg²⁺>K⁺,次要离子为Ca²⁺ >HCO-₃>CO2-₃,微量元素为B₂O₃>Br->Li⁺。Na⁺的分布特征为东部高,北部中等,西南部偏低;而Cl-为东高西低;K⁺大致为南高北低;Mg²⁺为中部高,西部低,北部与南部中等。SO2-₄、 Ca²⁺和CO2-₃的区域分布特征均不明显;微量元素Li⁺ 、Br-、B₂O₃含量虽局部(两大沙漠连接带)有所富集,但绝对含量不高。对天然盐湖和人工采盐池的卤水进行了对比。采盐池中卤水因为蒸发强烈,离子浓度显著高于天然盐湖。分析天然盐湖与采盐池卤水离子浓度的变化规律发现,卤水蒸发初期Na⁺、Cl-、SO2-₄离子浓度随矿化度的升高而增大,Ca²⁺离子浓度明显下降,卤水蒸发后期Mg²⁺、K⁺大量富集,整个卤水蒸发过程中微量元素Li⁺与B₂O₃浓度一直随矿化度的升高而增大。这些结果对内蒙古西部盐湖的研究与开发都具有积极意义。     

基于经验模型的长江口南支上段压咸临界流量

河口区域盐水入侵,威胁三角洲地区城市淡水资源取用及生态环境安全,合理确定压咸临界径流流量,有助于进一步改进流域水库群的调度模式。以长江口南支为例,利用2009-2014年期间60余个潮周期氯度资料,综合分析多种盐度预测经验模型的有效性,确定了抑制咸潮入侵的临界径流流量。结果表明:①咸潮入侵强度随径流与潮差组合而不同,长江口径流流量小于30000 m^3/s时可发生盐度超标现象,69%的盐度超标天数发生在流量小于15000 m^3/s时期,当径流量小于12000 m^3/s时盐度超标几率达65%;②盐度与潮差之间为指数型曲线关系,潮差总体呈半月周期变化,根据潮差累积频率分布得到平均意义上"连续10 d盐度超标"临界条件对应的青龙港潮差约为2.7 m,由此推算得到临界大通流量略大于11000 m^3/s;③采用多种盐度预测经验模型进行计算,避免连续10 d盐度超标对应的临界径流流量区间为11000～12000 m^3/s,平均阈值取为11500 m^3/s;④在三峡及上游梯级水库联合运行后,2008-2015年长江入海最低径流流量有所增加,但仍低于压咸潮临界阈值,建议优化水库调度模式,控制长江入海径流最低流量在11500 m^3/s以上。     

长江大通-河口段枯季的径流量变化

通过实地调查和收集长江下游1950－2000年水文、水利工程资料，建立了长江大通以下枯季径流量变化地理信息系统，分析了影响长江大通水文站以下径流量变化的水文过程，探索了这一区间枯季径流量变化的成因与过程。调查研究表明，截止2000年大通以下各类抽引水工程的总数已达64个，抽引水能力达到了4626m^3/s（潮周期内平均轴引水流量）。实际抽引水量呈现很大的年、季波动，这与本区气候干旱情况、农作物生长期、跨流域调水量等多种因素有关。研究表明：大通－河口段沿江两岸大量的抽引水已成为影响长江大通以下枯季入海流量变化的最重要的因素。本文在过去实际抽引江水资料的基础上，估算了过去不同水文、气候背景下长江大通以下枯季径流量的变化幅度及其对入海流量的影响，并利用实际数据进行了验证。在此基础上，探讨了未来长江大通以下枯季的径流量变化趋势。     

长江大通-河口段枯季的径流量变化

Based on hydrometric data and extensive investigations on water-extracting projects, this paper presents a preliminary study on water discharge changes between Datong and Xuliujing during dry season. The natural hydrological processes and human factors that influence the water discharge are analyzed with the help of GIS method. The investigations indicate that the water-extracting projects downstream from Datong to Xuliujing had amounted to 64 in number by the end of 2000,with a water-extracting capacity up to 4,626 m3/s averaged in a tidal cycle. The water extraction from the Changjiang River has become the most important factor influencing the water discharge downstream Datong during dry season. The potential magnitude in water discharge changes are estimated based on historical records of water extraction and a water balance model. The computational results were calibrated with the actual data. The future trend in changes of water discharge into the sea during dry season was discussed by taking into consideration of newly built hydro-engineering projects. The water extraction downstream Datong in dry season before 2000 had a great influence on discharges into the sea in the extremely dry year like 1978-1979. It produced a net decrease of more than 490 m^3/s in monthly mean discharges from the Changjiang into the sea. It is expected that the water extraction will continually increase in the coming decades, especially in dry years, when the net decrease in monthly mean water discharge will increase to more than 1000 m^3/s and will give a far-reaching effect on the changes of water discharge from the Changjiang into the sea.     

Water discharge changes of the Changjiang River downstream Datong during dry season

Based on hydrometric data and extensive investigations on water-extracting projects, this paper presents a preliminary study on water discharge changes between Datong and Xuliujing during dry season. The natural hydrological processes and human factors that influence the water discharge are analyzed with the help of GIS method. The investigations indicate that the water-extracting projects downstream from Datong to Xuliujing had amounted to 64 in number by the end of 2000, with a water-extracting capacity up to 4,626 m3/s averaged in a tidal cycle. The water extraction from the Changjiang River has become the most important factor influencing the water discharge downstream Datong during dry season. The potential magnitude in water discharge changes are estimated based on historical records of water extraction and a water balance model. The computational results were calibrated with the actual data. The future trend in changes of water discharge into the sea during dry season was discussed by taking into consideration of newly built hydro-engineering projects. The water extraction downstream Datong in dry season before 2000 had a great influence on discharges into the sea in the extremely dry year like 1978-1979. It produced a net decrease of more than 490 m3/s in monthly mean discharges from the Changjiang into the sea. It is expected that the water extraction will continually increase in the coming decades, especially in dry years, when the net decrease in monthly mean water discharge will increase to more than 1000 m3/s and will give a far-reaching effect on the changes of water discharge from the Changjiang into the sea.     

长江口南支上段压咸临界流量分析

Saltwater intrusion in the estuary area threatens the use of freshwater resources.If river discharge increases to a critical value,then saltwater intrusion frequency and salinity level decreases.In this study,long-term river discharge and tidal range data in the Yangtze River Estuary(YRE)and salinity data obtained in the upper South Branch of the YRE were used to analyze the characteristics of different variables and the basic law of their interactions.Two methods,namely,the material analysis method and empirical models,were applied to determine the critical river discharge for saltwater intrusion control.Results are as follows:(1)the salinity might exceed the drinking water standard of China when the river discharge was less than 30,000 m^3/s.Approximately 69%of salinity excessive days occurred when the river discharge was less than 15,000 m^3/s;(2)the tidal range in the YRE roughly varied in sinusoidal pattern with a 15-day cycle length.Exponential relationship existed between daily salinity(chlorinity)and daily mean tidal range.Combining these two features with the cumulative frequency statistics of tidal ranges,it was showed that notable saltwater intrusion occurred when the tidal range was more than 2.7 m at Qinglonggang station.Moreover,the critical discharge was found to be slightly higher than 11,000 m^3/s;(3)various of empirical models for salinity prediction could be chosen to calculate the critical discharge.The values obtained by different models were in the range of 11,000–12,000 m^3/s;(4)the proposed critical discharge to reduce notable saltwater intrusion was 11,500 m^3/s.After the Three Gorges Reservoir operation,the minimum river discharge into the YRE in 2008–2017 was below the critical discharge,thereby suggesting an increase in the minimum river discharge by reservoir regulation in drought periods.     

长江口水沙入海通量的观测与分析

在长江口用声学多普勒流速剖面仪（ADCP）进行走航式断面观测,结果表明,采集水样获取的悬沙浓度与ADCP记录的声学信号（后向散射强度）之间存在显著相关关系,因此可据ADCP声学数据获得沿观测断面的高时空分辨率的悬沙浓度剖面。分析结果表明．在徐六泾附近断面以往复流占优势．大潮期间单位时间最大水、悬沙通量值出现于涨潮期．落潮历时较长．落潮期水、悬沙通量分别大于涨潮期水、悬沙通量,净通量向海。长江口南槽拦门沙外侧主要为旋转流．涨潮期间内的水、悬沙通量均分别大于落潮期间的水、悬沙通量。2003年11月12日的观测结果表明．潮周期内通过徐六泾断面向海输运的水与悬沙通量分别为10^9m^3和10^8kg量级：径流量与悬沙输运率分别为10^4m^3／s和10^3kg／s量级。1998年以来徐六泾ADCP流量观测数据与同时间的大通径流量之间存在着显著的相关关系．故可由大通径流量估算徐六泾径流量。作为长江人海径流量．以作为历史资料整编的一种手段。结果表明,长江人海年径流总量略大于大通年径流总量：而在枯水期间人海径流量小于大通径流量。     

The impact of water transfers from the lower Yangtze River on water security in Shanghai

Shanghai is a megacity that increasingly relies on water drawn from the Yangtze River estuary. During periods of low flow, water in the estuary can become too saline for use in city water supplies. River flow is measured at the Datong gauging station 680 km upstream from the river mouth. Several existing and planned river water extractions are located below Datong, including the Eastern Route of the South-North Water Diversion Project (ERP). The effect of these extractions on discharge into the estuary and the associated salinity levels may be significant, even though the extractions are not reflected in the discharge at Datong. We estimate the effects of these downstream extractions on water discharge into the estuary (rather than at Datong), particularly the critical discharge level below which salinity compromises water security in Shanghai. Our results show that the ERP will cause the discharge into the estuary to fall below critical levels between December and February in dry years and January to February in normal years. Future water transfer projects along the lower Yangtze River will further compound the problem. Maintaining Shanghai's water security is therefore a significant challenge for China's water resource management institutions.     

海平面上升对长江口三岛影响的预测研究

根据国际权威机构ＩＰＣＣ １９９０年对２１世纪全球海平面上升的最佳估计值和本区地壳沉降速率以及地面沉降趋势,确定下一世纪长江口相对海平面上升１．０ｍ左右。在此基础上,预测了相对海面上升对海岸工程,交通水利设施湿地损失,洪涝灾害及盐水入侵的影响。     

东线南水北调对黄浦江水质的影响

本文对长江枯季(12—3月)径流的特点、变化规律、河口盐水入侵以及对黄浦江水质的影响等进行了初步分析。长江水量虽然丰富,但枯季径流并不大,枯季径流一般占年径流总量的15%左右。频率50%的平水年各月平均流量都在15000秒立米以下,频率75%的一般少水年枯季1、2月份的月平均流量不足10000秒立米。河口盐度变化随上游来水多少而异,大通站流量在10000秒立米时河口盐度变化敏感,流量再减少河口盐度将急剧增加,便会严重污染河口和黄浦江水质,影响上海市和河口地区的工农业和城市生活用水。因此,在规划长江流域用水时,应使大通站流量在15000秒立米以上,若有困难,至少不能低于10000秒立米。