川滇地区应力场演化与强震间相互作用的三维有限元模拟

针对川滇地区，在大量搜集、总结前人资料和结果的基础上，建立了包括上地壳、下地壳(两层)、上地幔等4层结构的三维有限元模型. 通过反复调试，确定了其边界条件，并且计算了川滇地区背景应力场、断层蠕动产生的应力场和强震触发的应力场，以及它们的动态变化. 结果表明:后续地震大多发生在前面地震引发的库仑破裂应力正值区，前一地震对后续地震有一定的触发作用，强震是在较高的应力背景下成组发生的. 这对判断、识别地震异常，提高地震预测水平有着很大的意义.      

3-D finite element modeling for evolution of stress field and interaction among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region

Introduction Sichuan-Yunnan region is a major area with frequent strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland, especially the middle-southern segment of South-North Seismic Zone, where many strong earth-quakes occurred in history. In the past 30 years, Sichuan-Yunnan region has two seismically active periods: one is from Tonghai earthquake in 1970 to Longling-Songpan earthquake in 1976, the other is from Lancang earthquake in 1988 to now. During this two periods, the M=7.7 Tonghai, M=7.1 Dagua…     

应力场演化与强震间相互作用的有限元模拟研究

针对川滇地区,在大量搜集前人资料和结果的基础上,建立了包括上地壳、中地壳、下地壳、上地幔等4层结构的三维有限元模型。通过反复调试,确定了其边界条件。然后计算了川滇地区背景应力场、断层蠕动产生的应力场和强震触发的应力场,以及它们的动态变化。结果表明后续地震大多发生在前面地震引发的库仑破裂应力正值区,前一地震对后续地震有一定的触发作用,强震是在较高的应力背景下成组发生的。这对判断、识别地震异常,提高地震预测水平有着很大的意义。     

Numerical calculations of tectonic stress field of Chinese mainland and its neighboring regions and their applications to explanation of seismic activity

IntroductionChinesemainlandliesinthesoutheastofEurasianPlateandisclampedbyindian,PacificandPhilippineSeaPlates.Besides,itislocatedatbetweenthetwobigseismicactivebeltsintheworldatthesametime.Differingfromtheshowoftwobigseismicbeltswhichhaveseismiczonaldistributionalongplateboundary,Chinesemainlandanditsperipheralareahaveapeculiarcharacter,expressingseismicallylargestrength,highfrequency,widedistribution,shallowfocus,seriousdamage,multiplestyles,extremelynonuniformspace-timedistributionandsoo…     

Precursory specialties of apparent stresses in Yunnan earthquake series

On the basis of the assumption that ω^2 model accords with source displacement spectra, we have obtained the mathematical expressions for calculating apparent stresses of moderate-small shocks from low-frequency flat level and comer frequency. By using digital seismic records, apparent stress values are calculated for 823 moderate-small shocks of 4 earthquake series in Yunnan area following corrections for instrument response, propagation influence and site effect. The results show that for the 4 earthquake series in Yunnan area, apparent stress hints precursory information, which means that if a moderate-small shock occurs with apparent stress larger than 1 MPa in an earthquake series, a moderate-strong earthquake will occur afterwards; and if there is not moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 1 MPa after a moderate-strong event in an earthquake series, strong aftershock will not occur. The research also indicates that the average apparent stress value is 0.8 MPa in Yunnan area, therefore, apparent stress is not obviously related to seismic magnitude.     

Prilimary result of temperature distribution and associated thermal stress in crust in Tianshui, China

The heat flow in crust and the thermal stress generated by the flow play a very important role in earthquake occurrence. Different crustal structure has different effect on heat distribution and associated thermal stress. In all of typical seismogenic crustal structure models, including the bulge of Moho surface, the deep-large fault in the mid-lower crust, low-velocity and high-conductive layer in the middle crust, and the typical crustal structure in mid-upper crust, the thermal stress produced by deep heat disturbance may move up to the mid-upper crest. This leads to upper brittle part of crust break and hence, strong earthquakes. This result is constructive in enhancing our understanding of the role of deep fieat flow in curst in development of earthquake and its generation, as well as the generation mechanism of the shallow flowing fluid.     

河西—祁连山地区近期形变场演化特征与孕震构造模式

本文通过对河西－祁山地区近２０年形变场演化特征的分析，提出了代表该区区域应力松驰、岩石圈底部软流层对流加速以及地壳中上部应力强化与强震孕育三种应力状态的特征性形变图象，文章还通过典型强震构造组合特征、形变场特征的分析，提出了该区北西西、北东向两组构造的组合孕震模式，并利用上述孕震模式对该区近期强震危险地点进行了初步判定。     

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the north-eastern Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau since 1920.Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be drivenby dislocations of large earthquakes(M≥7.0)and secular tectonic loading.The earthquake rupture parameters suchas the fault rupture length,width,and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their sta-tistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments.Our study shows that among 20 largeearthquakes(M≥7.0)investigated,17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive,with atriggering rate of 85%.This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation oflarge earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

Recent tectonic stress field zoning in Sichuan-Yunnan region and its dynamic interest

In this paper, we have carefully determined the stress zones in the Sichuan-Yunnan region with reference to the in-situ stress data of hydraulic fracturing and the inverted fault slip data by using the step-by-step convergence method for stress zoning based on focal mechanism solutions. The results indicate that the tectonic stress field in the Sichuan-Yunnan region is divided into 3 stress zones by 2 approximately parallel NNW-trending stress transition belts. The area between the 2 belts is the Sichuan-Yunnan stress zone where the maximum principal stress σ1 is just in the NNW direction. The eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan stress zone （the eastern stress transition belt） is basically consistent with the eastern boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block. The western boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan stress zone （the western stress transition belt） is not totally consistent with the western boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block. The northern segment of the western stress transition belt extends basically along the Jinshajiang fault and accords with the western boundary of Sichuan-Yunnan rhombic block, while its southern segment does not extend along the southwestern boundary of the rhombic block, i.e., Honghe fault and converge with the eastern stress transition belt, but stretches continuously in the NNW direction and accords with the Yingpanshan fault. We therefore consider that under the combined influence from the northward motion of India Plate, the southeastward shift of east Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the strong obstruction of South China block, the tectonic stress field in the Sichuan-Yunnan region might not be totally controlled by the previous tectonic frame and new stress transition belt may have possibly formed.     

天水地区地壳结构热分布与热应力特征初步研究

地壳内热活动及其产生的热应力作用是地震孕育发生的重要因素之一. 不同特征的地壳结构对热分布及其热应力有特殊的影响. 在含有莫霍面局部上隆、中下地壳的深大断裂、中地壳低速高导体和中上地壳断裂的典型孕震地壳结构模型中，深部热扰动作用下产生的热应力作用会明显上移至中上地壳，对上层脆性地壳的破裂——强地震的发生有直接影响. 这一结果对理解深部热流体在地震孕育和发生过程中的作用，以及浅层流体前兆的产生机理具有指导意义.      

辽宁及邻区地壳构造应力场及其与地震活动关系的三维有限元数值模拟研究

依据最新的辽宁及其邻近地区地壳上地幔三维地震波速结构，并考虑地质构造、断裂以及地壳深部的构造环境等因素，建立研究区的三维地质模型；结合震源机制解与原地应力测量资料，分析区域现代地应力场特征，确定了研究区的边界约束和动力边界条件．在以上基础上，采用线弹性介质模型进行研究区三维构造应力场的有限元数值模拟，探讨研究区地壳应力场的基本特征．对比分析表明，本区地壳内应力场的三维有限元数值模拟结果与已发生的地震有着较好的对应关系，并指出了值得注意的有潜在发震可能的地震危险区．      

Study on a gravity precursor mode of the Ms=7.0 Lijiang earthquake

To study the seismogeny process or the precursory behavior of the 1976Ms=7.0 Lijiang earthquake,we analyze the repeat gravity data with high precision from the Westem Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Experiment Area(WYEPEA)and the relted results of geology and geophysics survey in this paper.Considering the gross errors caused by observation data and model difference,we have firstly inverted the slip distribution of the main active faults with time based on the robust Bayesian least squares estimation and multi-fault dislocation model.The re-sults show that the slip changes of the faults with time from 1990to 1997obviously reflect the preparation process of the Lijiang earthquake.The images of main precursor mode have the characteristic of main shock-after shock type,which is agreement to the model of coupling movement tetween crust density and crust deformation(DD mode of coupling movement).     

华北地区拆离滑脱带控震作用初探

华北东部盆岭区以地震多、震级大、损失惨重而称。以往地震地质研究多注重断裂交汇、拐点、分枝等部位的控震作用。但是，华北盆岭区多次大震的烈度并不呈线型展布，震源也并非沿陡倾断裂走向分布，而是在一定深度上(近水平)弥散展布，故人们开始注意深部滑脱带控震的探讨。笔依据近十余年华北地幔亚热柱的研究认为，华北断陷区之下为—强烈上隆的地幔亚热柱。地幔物质的上隆及上侵作用使上地壳裂解断陷，而中地壳在地幔、下地壳的影响下形成相间展布的低速—高导层。在地幔亚热柱热物质流向外拆离的带动下，中、下地壳亦由亚热柱顶部向外围拆离滑脱。当中、下地壳拆离到上地壳裂陷盆地边缘受到造山带的阻挡而减慢时，两之间便产生剪切作用，导致应力不断积聚并阶段性释放，从而造成亚热柱外围地震频繁发生。     

A 3D finite element modeling on the relationship between crustal stress and earthquake activity in Liaoning and its vicinity

IntroductionTectonic earthquakes are the consequence of localized stress concentration. A basic way of learning the process of earthquake preparation and occurrence is to study the distribution and evolution of the tectonic stress.Since the 1980s a series of achievements in Earth stress research have been announced in the world (e.g., Zoback, 1992). In last two decades many researches on crustal tectonic stress have been carried on in China, including earthquake focal mechanism analyses, in-…     

连云港─银川岩石圈壳─幔组合结构剖面构造应力场的有限元数值模拟

从岩石圈壳－幔组合结构出发，选择了大华北岩石围块体内一条NWW向连云港－银川的岩石圈壳－幔组合结构剖面，试图先从一个简单的力学模型开始，用二维有限元法得到岩石围（地壳和上地幔顶盖层）中的构造应力场的分布特征，从而解释板内地震与　岩石围亮－幔结构比值（R）相关的力学原因。     

Improved stress release model: Application to the study of earthquake prediction in Taiwan area

Introduction Stress release model (SRM) was proposed by Vere-Jones (1978) for statistical study of seismicity. Physically it is a stochastic version of the elastic rebound theory of earthquake genesis. The classical elastic rebound model suggests that the stress has been slowly accumulating until the burst of an earthquake occurrence for stress release. This can be simulated by the jump Markov process in stochastic field, and SRM was developed on the basis of Knopoff (s Markov model (Knop…     

Discussion on the feature of strong earthquake: Orderly distribution in time, space and intensity before the Western Kunlun Mountain Pass M =8.1 earthquake

In the paper, the feature of strong earthquake orderly distribution in time, space and intensity before the Western Kunlun Mountain Pass M=8.1 earthquake is preliminarily studied. The modulation and triggering factors such as the earth rotation, earth tides are analyzed. The results show that: the giant earthquakes with the magnitude more than 8 occurred about every 24 years and the earthquakes with the magnitude more than 7 about every 7 years in Chinese mainland. The Western Kunlun Mountain M=8.1 earthquake exactly occurred at the expected time; The spatial distance show approximately the same distances between each two swarms. The earth rotation, earth tide, sun tide and sun magnetic field have played a role of modulation and triggering in the intensity. At last, the conditions for earthquake generation and occurrence are also discussed. Foundation item: State Key Project of Science and Technology of China (2001BA601B01) and State 863 Plan of China.     

Dynamic variation of ambient shear stress field before and after three strong earthquakes in Yunnan

IntroductionThecrustaltectonicmovementisacomplicatedevolutionprocesswithtimeandspace.Spatially,themovementofcrustaltectoniciscloselyrelatedtotheinter-movementandinteractionofmulti-leveledcrustalblocksinacertainregionandtheirborderfaults.Temporally,themovementiscloselyrelatedtothatofmulti-leveledcrustalblocksandtimesequencedevelopmentofinteraction.Anearthquakeoccurrenceistheresultofsuddenruptureofcrustmediaundertheactionoftectonicstressfield,isalsoacomplicatedprocessinnercrust.Duetotheobviousi…     

1966年邢台7.2级地震的动力学模型

根据较新的深地震反射资料，构造应力场和震机制等资料，建立了１９６６年邢台７．２级地震孕震区的平面和剖面的有限元模型，对平面和剖面模型在ＥＷ向水平外压力下的最大剪应力分布进行了计算，剪应力相对集中的部位和大震震源位置比较一致，提出了邢台７．２级地震的动力学模型，认为地震的孕育和发生可能需要深，浅部断层，壳内低速层和ＥＷ向水平压力的共同作用，虽然由震源机制和地震宏观烈度分布等资料可指出有具体的发震断层     

地震应力触发数值模拟的初步研究

本文基于有限元方法，初步建立了西南地区二维和三维数值模拟有限元模型，并针对川滇地区，重点建立了包括上地壳、下地壳、上地幔等的三维有限元模型。最后，讨论了地震产生的应力变化对整个西南地区的应力调整情况。结果表明：前一地震对后续地震有一定的触发作用。因此，强震活动有限元模型的建立对判定未来强震危险区有一定的作用。