Solar,volcanic, and CO2 forcing of recent climatic changes

The climate, as represented by the mean Northern Hemisphere temperature, has shown substantial changes within the past century. The temperature record is utilized as a means of elucidating the relative importance of anthropogenic CO₂ increase, volcanic aerosols, and possible solar insolation variations in externally forcing climate changes. Solar luminosity variations, suggested by observed solar radius variations on an ≈ 80 yr time scale, allow a self-consistent explanation of the hemispheric temperature trends. Evidence for solar influences on the climate is also found on the shorter 11 and 22 yr time scales present in solar activity cycles. The author is a staff scientist at the High Altitude Observatory, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. This work was completed while the author was a postdoctoral fellow in the Advanced Study Program of NCAR. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Effects of Roll Vortices on Turbulent Fluxes in the Hurricane Boundary Layer

Boundary-layer secondary circulations or ‘roll vortices’ can have a significant influence on the turbulent exchange of momentum, sensible heat and moisture throughout the hurricane boundary layer. In this study, analyses of data from a WP-3D aircraft of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are presented. As part of the Coupled Boundary Layer Air-Sea Transfer (CBLAST)-hurricane experiment sponsored through the Office of Naval Research and NOAA’s annual hurricane research program, flights were conducted to investigate energy exchange across the air–sea interface. We present the first in-situ aircraft-based observations of rolls in the hurricane boundary layer and investigate their influence on energy and momentum exchange. The rolls detected in Hurricane Isidore (year 2002) have a characteristic wavelength of about 900 m, in good agreement with analyses of data from a synthetic aperture radar image captured by the Canadian Space Agency’s RADARSAT satellite in the same storm. Our analyses of the airborne data suggest that roll vortices may be a significant factor modulating the air–sea momentum exchange.     

基于地基观测的成都彭州气溶胶光学特性研究

利用2017年成都市彭州地区CE318型太阳分光光度计的观测数据,反演了该地区的气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)、Angstr?m指数(α)和大气浑浊度(β),分析了AOD与α、β以及可吸入颗粒物(PM₁₀、PM_(2. 5))之间的关系。结果表明:AOD表现出冬季>春季>夏季>秋季的季节变化特征,高值主要出现在冬、春季,低值主要出现在夏、秋季。Angstr?m指数在全年的波动不大,月平均值为1. 22±0. 19,低值出现在春季,高值出现在夏季。除了冬季,在其他季节观察到和Angstr?m指数具有相同的月变化趋势。AOD与β之间具有较强的相关性,但与PM₁₀、PM_(2. 5)的正相关关系表现偏弱。该地区气溶胶光学特性受北方沙尘的影响并不明显,但受到人类活动的影响显著,该地区主控态气溶胶是以细粒子为主的城市—工业型气溶胶类型。     

Summary of the Lövånger International Workshop on Turbulence and Diffusion in the Stable Planetary Boundary Layer

A workshop on the stable planetary boundary layer (PBL) was held on 21–24 October, 1997 at Lövånger, a small town about 80 km north of Umeå, Sweden. Thirty-five scientists representing eight countries participated in the meeting, which was arranged by the U.S. Army Research Office, the Swedish Defence Research Establishment, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Air Resources Laboratory, and the Meteorology Department of Uppsala University. Topics addressed included the very stable boundary layer, gravity wave/turbulence interactions, modeling the stable boundary layer, future observations and new measurement techniques, the role of condensation (fog) and radiative flux divergence, and atmospheric diffusion. Invited papers appear in this special issue. Workshop discussions, informal presentations, and specific recommendations are summarized. Workshop participants and organizers are presented in Appendix A.     

Active and passive remote sensing of precipitating storms during CaPE. Part II: Intercomparison of precipitation retrievals over land from AMPR radiometer and CP-2 radar

Summary One of the recent campaigns devoted to precipitation studies using both active and passive microwave remote sensing systems was the Convection and Precipitation/Electrification Experiment (CaPE), which took place in central Florida during the summer of 1991. During CaPE, the airborne Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR), having four channels at 10.7, 19.35, 37.1 and 85.5 GHz and the National Center for Atmospheric Research CP-2 multiparameter radar at S-band (3 GHz) and X-band (10 GHz) were operated simultaneously. In this paper, we compare estimated hydrometeor liquid/ice water contents and surface rainrates, both retrieved from the AMPR radiometer and CP-2 radar measurements, for a case study consisting of a heavy precipitating storm over land near Cape Canaveral on August 12, 1991. The multi-frequency radiometer-based retrieval scheme uses a cloud-precipitation dataset generated from a cloud model and extended by a physically-constrained Monte Carlo procedure, along with a discrete-ordinate radiative transfer model and a principal component statistical technique to help formulate non-linear regression equations for the sought-after hydrometeor quantities. By applying linear discriminant analysis, the algorithm is used to estimate column integrated liquid/ice water contents, as well as the vertical profiles of these quantities to within a specified accuracy. Rainfall rates are estimated either by non-linear regression or by a suitable fallout model. The analysis has confined itself to along-track nadir-looking AMPR measuremets to avoid complications with variable polarization mixing and geometric distortion for off-nadir observations. Considering the different model assumptions used in the two types of retrieval algorithms and the diverse geophysical information content within the two types of measurements, substantial agreement between the radar- and radiometer-derived retrievals has been achieved for the columnar liquid/ice water contents and rainrates.With 19 FiguresThe National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

前期青藏高原积雪与ENSO对南海夏季风强度的协同影响

基于1980—2018年罗格斯大学全球积雪实验室积雪面积、英国气象局哈得来中心海温、欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）第5代再分析（ERA-5）土壤湿度、美国国家环境预报中心和美国国家大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）再分析、美国国家海洋大气管理局（NOAA）气候预测中心降水（CMAP）和全球降水气候计划降水（GPCP）等数据,采用相关、合成和回归等分析方法,分析了前期青藏高原积雪和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）年际尺度变化对南海夏季风强度及降水的协同影响。结果表明:在年际尺度上,青藏高原积雪、ENSO与南海夏季风变率有密切关系,当青藏高原春季积雪西部偏多且东部偏少时,夏季高原西部对流层温度偏低,在高原上空产生异常下沉气流并向外辐散,引起中国南海地区对流层中低层为异常下沉气流。另外,赤道中东太平洋海温异常偏高则会使夏季印度洋海温异常偏高,对流层温度偏高,在西北太平洋产生东北风异常,加强西北太平洋和中国南海上空的反气旋性环流异常。在青藏高原积雪和ENSO共同影响下,夏季850 hPa中国南海上空反气旋异常进一步加强,南海夏季风强度减弱,降水减少。      

Three-dimensional numerical study of the height and mean structure of a heated planetary boundary layer

The heated boundary layer for DAY 33 of the Wangara data of southeast Australia (Clarke et al., 1971) is studied numerically with a three-dimensional model using 64000 grid points within a volume 5 km on a side and 2 km deep. Subgrid-scale transport equations were utilized in place of eddy-coefficient formulations. The rate of growth of the mixed layer is examined and parameterized, and the vertical profiles of heat flux, moisture flux and momentum fluxes are examined. The momentum boundary layer is found to coincide essentially with the mixed layer, and to grow with the latter during the hours of solar heating of the surface.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

大涡模式水平分辨率对边界层夹卷过程及示踪物垂直传输的影响

利用敦煌干旱区野外加密观测资料,结合大涡模式模拟研究模式水平分辨率对边界层对流、夹卷过程及示踪物垂直传输的影响。结果表明:模式水平分辨率越高,模拟的边界层对流泡个数越多,尺度越小,且对流强度越强;提高模式水平分辨率,夹卷层位温方差增大,水平速度方差减小,垂直速度方差增大,且上升冷气流对夹卷层热通量的贡献最大。模式水平分辨率越高,垂直速度、位温及示踪物绝对质量浓度概率密度函数分布变化范围相对越广,且模拟的细微变化特征越清晰。另外,提高模式水平分辨率,模拟的示踪物空间分布特征更加细致,示踪物传输高度也较高。综合考虑到分辨率越高在模拟过程中产生的噪音越大且计算时间越久等问题,认为采用200 m水平分辨率时,模式既能较好地模拟出边界层对流的平均结构,又能模拟出边界层湍流的较细微分布特征,是较为理想的选择。     

Defining desertification: A review

The concept of desertification was introduced in the late forties to designate a number of ecological degradation processes in tropical Africa, in particular the progressive transformation of tropical forests in savannahs or even drier ecosystems. Since then, the word has received a number of other meanings, some of them contradictory, most of them ambiguous.This paper reviews the historical developments that lead to the introduction of the concept of desertification, summarizes some of the reasons why this issue is so controversial, and suggests specific elements that should be incorporated in the definition of the concept. The point is made that each user of the concept should probably design a definition for his or her own use, depending on the goals, among other things.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is operated by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research and sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Indian summer monsoon onset vortex formation during recent decades

This study investigates the decrease in the frequency of onset vortex of summer monsoon during recent decades using the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (1982–2011) data. Onset vortices are known to occur over the Arabian Sea mini warm pool where the sea surface temperature peaks just before the onset of monsoon. Even though the Arabian Sea mini warm pool intensifies during the recent decades, they are not seen as a regular feature. It is found from the analysis of irrotational and non-divergent wind component at 850 and 200 hPa that during the recent decades, convergent winds dominate at upper levels and divergent winds at lower levels which inhibits convection. Moreover, the cyclonic shear vorticity shows a decrease in the recent decades which tend to reduce the boundary layer moisture convergence and lower tropospheric humidity which is an important component for the initiation of a cyclonic system. The recent decades are characterized by weak convection due to the presence of strong northerlies and descending motion at lower levels in the southeast Arabian Sea. The response of atmospheric circulation to the interdecadal variations in the warm pool and the corresponding decrease in the frequency of onset vortex formation is analyzed in detail.     

Book reviews

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Climatic change has stabilized An Editorial

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

基于NCEP FNL资料的山西岢岚地区雨雪天气诊断可信度分析

基于山西岢岚地区2005—2014年共1218个雨雪天气日的NCEP FNL资料(1°×1°)与探空资料,采用偏差、绝对差、相关系数和偏差区间占有率的统计方法,对常规物理量(温度、相对湿度、纬向风和经向风)和诊断物理量(T_800-500、T_d800和TT_d700)进行统计分析。结果表明:常规物理量中的温度平均偏差值和绝对差值最小、相关系数值最大,分别为-0. 22℃、1. 02℃、0. 90,可信度最高;而相对湿度的平均偏差值和绝对差值最大、相关系数值最小,分别为12. 31%、19. 68%和0. 63,可信度最低;纬向风和经向风的可信度相差不大,略低于温度;诊断物理量T_800-500、T_d800和TT_d700的偏差值分别为-0. 08℃、1. 50℃和2. 79℃,绝对差值分别为1. 21℃、3. 33℃和4. 14℃,相关系数值分别为0. 95、0. 92和0. 74,偏差值为[-5,5]占总数百分比分别为98. 77%、80. 30%和75. 04%。即T_800-500可信度最高,TT_d700指数可信度最低。     

Editorial

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Numerical modeling of a strong dust event over the south China region in March 2010

The mesoscale model WRF-Chem was used to simulate a severe dust storm event that occurred in March 2010. The storm affected a vast area of East Asia, including the south China region and Hong Kong. This southern region is rarely affected by dust weather. The performance of the WRF-Chem was evaluated by observational data such as the National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data for atmospheric circulation, PM10 concentration from various ground stations, and satellite images of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations. The dependence of the model’s performance on certain important parameterizations was examined in this study. For this particular dust storm event, the model results suggest that the simulation is not very sensitive to certain key physical parameterizations such as threshold wind speed of dust emission and the choice of land surface model. In general, the WRF-Chem is capable of capturing the key physical processes for this severe dust event. The analysis of the dust transport fluxes suggests that the dust transport to the south China region is mainly from the north, although there is a mountainous region in the northern part of the south China region.     

Anomalies in temperature and rainfall during warm Arctic seasons

The regional patterns of change of temperature and rainfall that might accompany a global warming due to increased carbon dioxide can be studied by experiments with theoretical models of the climate system, by reconstructing the climates of past warm epochs, and by determining the anomalies of temperature and precipitation that prevailed during years or seasons when the Arctic region was unusually warm. The current study pursues the last course, making use of the northern hemisphere meteorological data record for the period 1931–1978. Hemispheric maps of anomalies of both temperature and precipitation are presented for the 10 warmest Arctic seasons and years, and for differences between the 5 warmest and 5 coldest consecutive Arctic winters. Wintertime anomalies are generally greatest and dominate in determining the annual averages. The hemispheric temperature anomalies for these data sets are similar to those determined earlier by the first author (Williams, 1980) using 1900–1969 data, but the precipitation anomalies (for North America alone) show more variation, partly due to the method of computing the anomalies. Work reported here begun while a visitor to the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Whatever happened to nuclear winter? — An editorial

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Book reviews

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Do biophysics and physiology matter in ecosystem models?

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Public policy and the airborne fraction guest editorial

The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.