气候系统模式FGOALS_gI模拟的小冰期气候

利用1650～1750年逐年变化的太阳辐照度等外强迫资料,驱动中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG发展的快速气候系统模式FGOALS_gl,模拟了小冰期(LIA)气候.把模拟的LIA表面温度变化与重建资料进行对比,结果表明FGOALS_gl对LIA气候具有较强的模拟能力,说明太阳辐照度的自然变化是导致小冰期气候的重要成因.模拟结果显示,LIA时期纬向平均温度变化表现为整个对流层降温,低纬度地Ⅸ的降温中心位于对流层中层,北半球降温幅度大于南半球,高纬地区的降温幅度大于低纬地区.分析发现,中高纬地区的局地温度变化主要与环流异常相对应的冷暖平流有关;低纬地区的降温主要与赤道东风加强有关,东风增强通过增大蒸发和引起次表层冷海水上翻而令表层温度降低.LIA时期的降水变化丰要位于中低纬地区,表现为日界线东(西)侧降水的负(正)异常.与降水异常相对应.Walker环流加强,东太平洋对流活动减弱,它与低纬地区对流层中层冷异常相联系.与大气层顶净短波辐射异常的季节变化相对应,南、北半球夏季平均表面温度异常较之冬季低0.28℃左右.     

气候系统模式FGOALS_gl模拟的小冰期气候

利用1650～1750年逐年变化的太阳辐照度等外强迫资料,驱动中国科学院大气物理研究所LASG发展的快速气候系统模式FGOALS_gl,模拟了小冰期(LIA)气候。把模拟的LIA表面温度变化与重建资料进行对比,结果表明FGOALS_gl对LIA气候具有较强的模拟能力,说明太阳辐照度的自然变化是导致小冰期气候的重要成因。模拟结果显示,LIA时期纬向平均温度变化表现为整个对流层降温,低纬度地区的降温中心位于对流层中层,北半球降温幅度大于南半球,高纬地区的降温幅度大于低纬地区。分析发现,中高纬地区的局地温度变化主要与环流异常相对应的冷暖平流有关; 低纬地区的降温主要与赤道东风加强有关,东风增强通过增大蒸发和引起次表层冷海水上翻而令表层温度降低。LIA时期的降水变化主要位于中低纬地区,表现为日界线东(西)侧降水的负(正)异常。与降水异常相对应,Walker环流加强,东太平洋对流活动减弱,它与低纬地区对流层中层冷异常相联系。与大气层顶净短波辐射异常的季节变化相对应,南、北半球夏季平均表面温度异常较之冬季低0.28℃左右。     

一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数及其强弱变化之大气环流场差异

文章提出了一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数,并以此为依据从1948～1999年中挑选出两组强弱冬季风年份,通过合成分析对大气环流场和海表温度场在强弱东亚冬季风年的差异进行了对比分析。结果表明:东亚冬季风强度变化不单纯受局地气候系统影响,而与北半球半球尺度上的大气环流异常紧密相连。相对于弱的情形,强东亚冬季风年份中国大陆中东部及其东部大部分海域在整个对流层盛行偏北风距平、乌拉尔阻高显著加强、欧洲大陆西部维持一个深厚的气旋性异常环流系统、西风带环流偏弱、200hPa层南亚高压偏弱;中国大陆、北极地区、蒙古国大部分地区、欧洲大陆西北部表面温度降低;我国大陆与北太平洋海平面气压差加大;东亚大槽加强。研究还揭示,强东亚冬季风年份对应于北大西洋涛动弱指数,北大西洋和北太平洋海温状况对同期东亚冬季风强弱有着显著的影响     

北极海冰与全球气候变化

最近有关北极海冰在全球气候系统中作用的研究发现，北冰洋边缘海域大洋深水的形成与海冰发育有关，海冰冻融过程对盐度层结具有重要影响，海冰变化可引起盐度突变层的灾变和热盐环流的突然停止，热盐环流的变化与北大西洋海冰１０年际变化相联系，北大西洋气候的不稳定性与热盐环流变化密切相关。北极海冰－海洋－大气间耦合作用，使北极海冰构成了北大西洋和全球气候反馈循环中的重要环节。     

北极海冰减退引起的北极放大机理与全球气候效应

自20世纪70年代以来,全球气温持续增高,对北极产生了深刻的影响。21世纪以来,北极的气温变化是全球平均水平的2倍,被称为"北极放大"现象。北极海冰覆盖范围呈不断减小的趋势,2012年北极海冰已经不足原来的40%,如此大幅度的减退是过去1 450年以来独有的现象。科学家预测,不久的将来,将会出现夏季无冰的北冰洋。全球变暖背景下北极内部发生的正反馈过程是北极放大现象的关键,不仅使极区的气候发生显著变化,而且对全球气候产生非常显著的影响,导致很多极端天气气候现象的发生。北极科学的重要使命之一是揭示这些正反馈过程背后的机理。北极放大有关的重大科学问题主要与气—冰—海相互作用有关,海冰是北极放大中最活跃的因素,要明确海冰结构的变化,充分考虑融池、侧向融化、积雪和海冰漂移等因素,将海冰热力学特性的改变定量表达出来。海洋是北极变化获取能量的关键因素,是太阳能的转换器和储存器,要认识海洋热通量背后的能量分配问题,即能量储存与释放的联系机理,认识淡水和跃层结构变化对海气耦合的影响。全面认识北极气候系统的变化是研究北极放大的最终目的,要揭示气—冰—海相互作用过程、北极海洋与大气之间反馈的机理、北极变化过程中的气旋和阻塞过程、北极云雾对北极变化的影响。在对北极海冰、海洋和气候深入研究的基础上,重点研究极地涡旋罗斯贝波的核心作用,以及罗斯贝波变异的物理过程,深入研究北极变化对我国气候影响的主要渠道、关键过程和机理。     

West Antarctica's sensitivity to natural and human‐forced climate change over the Holocene

The location and intensity of the austral westerlies strongly influence southern hemisphere precipitation and heat transport with consequences for human society and ecosystems. With future warming, global climate models project increased aridity in southern mid‐latitudes related to continued poleward contraction of the austral westerlies. We utilize Antarctic ice cores to investigate past and to set the stage for the prediction of future behaviour of the westerlies. We show that Holocene West Antarctic ice core reconstructions of atmospheric circulation sensitively record naturally forced progressive as well as abrupt changes. We also show that recent poleward migration of the westerlies coincident with increased emission of greenhouse gases and the Antarctic ozone hole has led to unprecedented penetration, compared with >100,000 years ago, of air masses bringing warmth, extra‐Antarctic source dust and anthropogenic pollutants into West Antarctica. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原东部春季感热通量与我国东部气温的年际关系

利用ERA-Interim提供的地表感热、环流场资料和1979-2013年753站中国春季气温观测资料探讨了青藏高原（以下简称高原）东部春季感热通量与我国东部气温的关系。春季高原东部感热与我国东部气温在年际变化上存在密切的相关关系。去除9年滑动平均以后的SVD第一模态结果表明,当高原东部感热出现南弱（强）北强（弱）时,对应我国东北和华南地区的气温异常偏低（高）。当春季高原感热呈现南负北正的分布时,高层200 hPa上,高纬东风异常减弱背景西风有利于冷空气的南下,加之副热带西风急流显著增强,有利于东北地区形成气旋性环流。中低层环流场上,我国北方地区上空为一深厚的东北冷涡所控制,从对流层低层到高层,均呈现较强的气旋式环流分布。一方面,它引导西伯利亚冷空气南下,造成我国东北地区气压异常减弱,气温异常偏低;另一方面,其西侧北风异常阻滞了华南地区上空的背景西南风,不利于暖气流的输送。进一步分析得出,与PC1相关的南北温度差值场上,东亚地区上空从低纬到高纬呈现“负-正-负”的分布形势,有利于副热带西风急流在我国上空的显著增强。气旋中心上暖下冷的结构,导致位涡显著发展并向低层伸展、侵入,增强了对流层中低层的气旋性环流。气旋中心整个对流层为深厚的异常干空气,湿度负值中心与冷中心相对应,表明干冷空气异常下传发展。干侵入使得冷涡加强发展,维持了异常气旋性环流,导致春季东北、华南地区的异常降温。虽然前冬Nino3.4区海温与春季感热相关较好,但其对我国东部春季气温影响并不显著。     

Changes in the poleward energy flux by the atmosphere and ocean as a possible cause for ice ages

It is proposed that the two preferred modes of temperature and circulation of the atmosphere which occurred over the past 100,000 yr correspond to two modes of partitioning of the poleward energy flux between the atmosphere and ocean. At present the ocean carries an appreciable fraction of the transport, for example about three-eighths at 30°N. In the cold mode it is suggested that the ocean carries less, and the atmosphere more, than at present. During the formation of the ice, at 50,000 BP, for example, the overall flux is expected to be slightly lower than at present and during melting, at 16,000 BP, slightly higher. The transition between the modes is seen as a natural imbalance in the atmosphere-ocean energy budget with a gradual warming of the ocean during an Ice Age eventually cluminating in its termination. At the present the imbalance is thought to correspond to a natural cooling of the ocean, which will lead to the next Ice Age.The magnitude of temperature changes in the polar regions differ between the hemispheres in the same way as present seasonal changes, being larger in the northern than in the southern hemisphere.Overall the atmospheric energy cycle was more intense during the Ice Ages than now.Observational tests are proposed by which predictions from the present arguments may be compared with deductions about the environment of the past.Data used for the present state of the atmospheric general circulation are the latest global data available and contain no known major uncertainties. However, data for the oceanic circulation and energy budget are less well known for the present and almost unknown for the past. Hence the proposed imbalances must be treated as part of a speculative hypothesis, but one which eventually may be subject to observational test as no solar variability is invoked.     

ENSO-7赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的循环

近几年的一系列分析研究表明，ENSO与异常东亚冬季风之间有相互影响，持续的强（弱）东亚冬季风通过引起赤道西太平洋地区的西（东）风异常对El Niño/La Niña的发生起着重要作用；赤道太平洋次表层海温异常（SOTA）的年际变化（循环）与ENSO发生有密切关系；ENSO的真正源在西太平洋暖池，暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传到东太平洋，便导致El Niño/La Niña的爆发；在暖池正（负）SOTA沿赤道东传的同时，有负（正）SOTA沿10°N和10°S纬度带向西传播，从而构成SOTA的循环；热带太平洋SOTA循环的驱动者是赤道西太平洋的异常纬向风。进而可以认为：ENSO实质上是主要由异常东亚季风引起的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温距平的年际循环。     

Blueprints for Medieval hydroclimate

According to tree ring and other records, a series of severe droughts that lasted for decades afflicted western North America during the Medieval period resulting in a more arid climate than in subsequent centuries. A review of proxy evidence from around the world indicates that North American megadroughts were part of a global pattern of Medieval hydroclimate that was distinct from that of today. In particular, the Medieval hydroclimate was wet in northern South America, dry in mid-latitude South America, dry in eastern Africa but with strong Nile River floods and a strong Indian monsoon. This pattern is similar to that accompanying persistent North American droughts in the instrumental era. This pattern is compared to that associated with familiar climate phenomena. The best fit comes from a persistently La Niña-like tropical Pacific and the warm phase of the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. A positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also helps to explain the Medieval hydroclimate pattern. Limited sea surface temperature reconstructions support the contention that the tropical Pacific was cold and the subtropical North Atlantic was warm, ideal conditions for North American drought. Tentative modeling results indicate that a multi-century La Niña-like state could have arisen as a coupled atmosphere–ocean response to high irradiance and weak volcanism during the Medieval period and that this could in turn have induced a persistently positive NAO state. A La Niña-like state could also induce a strengthening of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and hence warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, by (i) the ocean response to the positive NAO and by shifting the southern mid-latitude westerlies poleward which (ii) will increase the salt flux from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic and (iii) drive stronger Southern Ocean upwelling.     

Interannual variability of Pacific summer waters in the Arctic Ocean

This work is devoted to study of interannual variability of characteristics of Pacific summer waters (PSWs) supplied into the AO in summer. The distribution area, volume, and heat content of PSWs have been calculated for the first time for the entire Arctic Basin in the periods of 1950–1989 and 2008–2009 demonstrating the presence of substantial interannual variability. From 1953 until 1983 a negative trend and since 1984 a positive trend have been observed; the latter lasted until 2009, when the heat content, volume, and distribution area of PSWs reached their maximal values for the entire period considered. It has been shown that PSW quantity in the Arctic Basin, identified by temperature, rather depends on the intensity of heat flux through the Bering Strait, and the calculated value for PSW life in the Arctic Basin is seven years.     

末次盛冰期西太平洋海温差异对亚洲夏季风影响的数值模拟

文章利用Zhao等的模拟结果,进一步研究了在末次盛冰期(LGM)情景下汪品先和CLIMAP两种重建海洋表面温度(SST)资料差异对亚洲夏季风的影响。模拟结果表明:在LGM情景下西太平洋海域SST资料的不同对模拟的亚洲夏季风有着十分重要的作用。夏季,与CLGM方案相比,在WLGM方案中,当热带西太平洋SST较暖时,印度地区的大气热量出现显著增加,大气热量的这种变化,使得南非高压、南印度洋经向Hadley环流加强,伴随着索马里越赤道气流加强,也导致了印度季风区纬向季风环流的加强,从而造成了印度夏季风增强、降水增多;与较暖的热带西太平洋相对应,澳大利亚高压和120°E附近越赤道气流减弱,东亚季风区20°N以南经向季风环流加强、20°N以北经向季风环流减弱,指示着一个强的南海夏季风和较弱东亚副热带大陆夏季风。     

大洋热盐环流研究的一个焦点：北太平洋是否有深水形成

现代大洋热盐环流的特点之一是北大西洋有深水形成而北太平洋没有，这种不对称性对周边气候产生了重要影响。尽管理论上认为大洋热盐环流可能存在对应不同气候的多平衡态，但北太平洋是否曾有过深水形成已成为目前学术争论的一个热点。简要介绍了最新的热盐环流研究成果，重点分析现代北太平洋无深水形成的原因，其中亚洲季风的水汽输送和低蒸发是两个重要的影响因子。     

Earth rotation,ocean circulation and paleoclimate

During the 20 Ka glaciation maximum Earth's rate of rotation was significantly faster. The subsequent glacial eustatic rise in sea level meant an increase of the equatorial radius and hence led to a general deceleration in the Earth's rate of rotation. At about 6000 BP the glacial eustatic rise in sea level finished and a new situation began which was characterized by feedback interchanges of angular momentum between the solid Earth and the hydrosphere. There is a strong linkage between Earth's rate of rotation — total as well as differential — and the changes in ocean surface circulation. The ocean circulation changes are, in their turn, strongly linked to the paleoclimatic evolution of the boardering land masses. This is due to the high heat-storing capacity of the oceans, the ocean/ atmosphere heat flux, and the ocean/land interaction via heat transport by the winds. Consequently, we see a causal connection between Earth's rotation, oceanic circulation, ocean/atmosphere heating, atmospheric (wind) heat transport and continental paleoclimatic changes. We propose that the paleoclimatic changes on the decadal to millennial time scale are primarily driven by this mechanism. Observational data of changes in ocean water masses and paleoclimate are presented for the 20 Ka situation, for the high-amplitude changes 13-10 Ka ago, for the decadal-to-century changes during the Holocene, for the last centuries' instrumental data and for the ENSO-events. This implies that the oceanic system (the ocean surface circulation system) has a much more important role than previously appreciated.     

Paleogene events in Central Eurasia: their role in the flora and vegetation cover evolution,migration of phytochore boundaries,and climate changes

The flora and vegetation of Central Eurasia evolved in the Paleogene to a significant extent in line with the scenario similar to the Late Cretaceous one. The position of high-rank phytochores was controlled by the global climatic zonality, while development stages of the flora depended on interaction between the Arctic and Tethyan water masses and direction of atmospheric flows and were determined by principal geological and paleogeographic events in the Paleogene history of Central Eurasia. Five main stages are definable in development of the Paleogene flora: (1) early-middle Danian with the wide distribution of temperate-thermophilic floras in the middle and high latitudes and their westward and southward expansion from the Pacific and Arctic regions of the Boreal realm; (2) Late Paleocene-Early Eocene with the maximal advancement of the Tethyan flora to the high latitudes and northward migration of phytochore boundaries in response to intense water exchange between the Tethys and Atlantic oceans with its trade currents and atmospheric heat transfer directly from the tropical zone in absence of the Alpine-Himalayan orogen; (3) Lutetian with development of subtropical monsoon-type floras under influence of the water mass exchange between the Arctic Basin and Peritethys with the monsoon-induced currents and atmospheric heat transfer from the Peritethys under conditions of the restricted connection between the Central Asia basins and Tethys; (4) (?) late Lutetian-Priabonian reflecting the climate inversion due to isolation of the West Siberian Sea from the Arctic Basin against the background of its continuing connection with the Peritethys; the formation of the semiclosed West Siberian Sea at that time was accompanied by development of a climate with humid winters, hot dry summers, and deficiency of average annual precipitation in the middle latitudes of Central Eurasia, where luxuriant subtropical Quercus-Laurus forests with Castanopsis that prevailed at the preceding stage were replaced by sclerophyllous arboreal-frutescent maquis; (5) Oligocene marked by the formation of the temperate deciduous mesophyllous coniferous-broad-leaved Turgai flora after definitive desiccation of the West Siberian Sea and Turgai Seaway due to global regression induced by glaciation (transition from the “warm” to “cold” biosphere).     

A study on the structure of the convective atmosphere over the Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX-99

Convective activity is one of the major processes in the atmosphere influencing the local and large-scale weather in the tropics. The latent heat released by the cumulus cloud is known to drive monsoon circulation, which on the other hand supplies the moisture that maintains the cumulus clouds. An investigation is carried out on the convective structure of the atmosphere during active and suppressed periods of convection using data sets obtained from the Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The cumulus convection though being a small-scale phenomenon, still influences its embedding environment by interaction through various scales. This study shows the variation in the kinematic and convective parameters during the transition from suppressed to active periods of convection. Convergence in the lower levels and strong upward vertical velocity, significant during active convection are associated with the formation of monsoon depressions. The apparent heat source due to latent heat release and the vertical transport of the eddy heat by cumulus convection, and the apparent moisture sink due to net condensation and vertical divergence of the eddy transport of moisture, are estimated through residuals of the thermodynamic equation and examined in relation to monsoon activity during BOBMEX.     

Global surface temperature in relation to northeast monsoon rainfall over Tamil Nadu

The local and teleconnective association between Northeast Monsoon Rainfall (NEMR) over Tamil Nadu and global Surface Temperature Anomalies (STA) is examined using the monthly gridded STA data for the period 1901–2004. Various geographical regions which have significant teleconnective signals associated with NEMR are identified. During excess (deficient) NEMR years, it is observed that the meridional gradient in surface air temperature anomalies between Europe and north Africa, in the month of September is directed from the subtropics (higher latitudes) to higher latitudes (subtropics). It is also observed that North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during September influences the surface air temperature distribution over north Africa and Europe. Also, the NAO index in January shows significant inverse relationship with NEMR since recent times. The central and eastern equatorial Pacific oceanic regions have significant and consistent positive correlation with NEMR while the western equatorial region has significant negative correlation with NEMR. A zonal temperature anomaly gradient index (ZTAGI) defined between eastern equatorial Pacific and western equatorial Pacific shows stable significant inverse relationship with NEMR     

A solution for the northern hemisphere climatic zonation during a glacial maximum

The same model previously used to deduce an acceptable first order picture of the present zonally averaged macroclimate is now solved for the climatic response to the “glacial” surface boundary conditions that prevailed at 18,000 BP in the northern hemisphere. The equilibrium solution obtained gives the distributions with latitude of the mean temperature, wind, humidity, precipitation, evaporation, heat balance, transient baroclinic eddy statistics (i.e., kinetic energy of the meridional wind and meridional flux of heat, momentum, and water vapor), and the energy integrals. In general terms, the solution shows the glacial atmosphere to be colder and drier than at present, with an intensified polar front, stronger mean zonal and poloidal winds, more intense transient baroclinic eddies (storms) transporting heat, momentum and water vapor poleward at higher rates, and reduced precipitation and evaporation. Also evident is an equatorward shift of the climatic zones (as delineated by the mean surface zonal winds, the poloidal motion, and the difference between mean evaporation and precipitation), particularly in higher latitudes. Other properties of the solution, such as the effect of zonal wind changes on the length of the day, are discussed.     

An Early Albian Arctic-type ammonite Arcthoplites from Hokkaido,northern Japan,and its paleobiogeographic and paleoclimatological implications

An Early Albian Arctic-type ammonite Arcthoplites was discovered from the Kamiji Formation of the Yezo Group in the Nakagawa area, northern Hokkaido, northern Japan. This is the first reliable record of a hoplitid ammonite from Japan and clearly indicates the distribution of an Arctic fauna in the middle latitudes of the North Pacific at that time. Synchronously with the appearance of this Arctic-type ammonite, the tropical Tethyan biota (Mesogean taxa) disappeared from Hokkaido and elsewhere in the Northwest Pacific. These biogeographic changes suggest the existence of a “cooling” episode in the Early Albian North Pacific.     

Thermosteresis and Transportation of Atlantic Water Along Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean

It is summarized based on previous studies that warm and salty Atlantic Water (AW) brings huge amount of heat into Arctic Ocean and influences oceanic heat distribution and climate. Both heat transportation and heat release of AW are key factors affecting the thermal process in Eurasian Basin. The Arctic circumpolar boundary current is the carrier of AW, whose flow velocity varies to influence the efficiency of the warm advection. Because the depth of AW in Eurasian Basin is much shallower than that in Canadian Basin, the upward heat release of AW is an important heat source to supply sea ice melting. Turbulent mixing, winter convention and double-diffusion convention constitute the main physical mechanism for AW upward heat release, which results in the decrease of the Atlantic water core temperature during its spreading along the boundary current. St. Anna Trough, a relatively narrow and long trough in northern continental shelf of Kara Sea, plays a key role in remodeling temperature and salinity characteristics of AW, in which the AW from Fram Strait enters the trough and mixes with the AW from Barents Sea. Since the 21^st Century, AW in the Arctic Ocean has experienced obvious warming and had the influence on the physical processes in downstream Canada Basin, which is attributed to the anomalous warming events of AW inflowing from the Fram Strait. It is inferred that the warming AW is dominated by a long-term warming trend superimposed on low frequency oscillation occurring in the Nordic Seas and North Atlantic Ocean. As the Arctic Ocean is experiencing sea ice decline and Arctic amplification, the role of AW heat release in response to the rapid change needs further investigation.